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At least 685 records · Page 38

Materials for electrification of everything: Moving toward sustainability

We report society is at a unique tipping point in a move from conventional fossil fuel based technologies to renewable sourced electrified technologies which can enable creating a carbon neutral or carbon negative energy economy. Many of the key approaches to achieving this transition in the critical areas of transportation, buildings and manufacturing depend on new materials and new approaches to rapidly increase electrification. This article reviews the overall energy landscape and highlights specific areas where new materials are critical to enabling transitions in energy storage, hydrogen utilization, transportation, buildings and the chemical industry and the articles on these topics that follow. How these transitions can be best integrated and the global societal impact of these transitions is also discussed. The development of new materials is instrumental in accelerating the move to a cleaner electrified society. The "electrification of everything" is increasingly important if we are to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and materials will play a critical role realizing this goal.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An Assessment of Geologic Carbon Sequestration Options in the Illinois Basin: Phase III

The Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) successfully demonstrated the safe geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) at the near commercial-scale. Such demonstration projects are essential to gain understanding of the workflows and monitoring equipment needed to be able to geologically sequester CO 2 at a commercial scale, and to gain public confidence in the technology. The IBDP was carried out by the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium (MGSC), one of seven USDOE NETL RCSPs that were formed to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of geological storage of CO 2 as a mitigation tool to address global climate change. The MGSC was formed and led by the Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky geological surveys of the Illinois Basin. The Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) at the University of Illinois was the principal investigator for and managed the IBDP, with the Indiana Geological Survey (IGS) (now Indiana Geological and Water Survey) and the Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) as key partners.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Source apportionment of VOCs, IVOCs and SVOCs by positive matrix factorization in suburban Livermore, California

Abstract. Gas- and particle-phase molecular markers provide highly specific information about the sources and atmospheric processes that contribute to air pollution. In urban areas, major sources of pollution are changing as regulation selectively mitigates some pollution sources and climate change impacts the surrounding environment. In this study, a comprehensive thermal desorption aerosol gas chromatograph (cTAG) was used to measure volatile, intermediate-volatility and semivolatile molecular markers every other hour over a 10 d period from 11 to 21 April 2018 in suburban Livermore, California. Source apportionment via positive matrix factorization (PMF) was performed to identify major sources of pollution. The PMF analysis identified 13 components, including emissions from gasoline, consumer products, biomass burning, secondary oxidation, aged regional transport and several factors associated with single compounds or specific events with unique compositions. The gasoline factor had a distinct morning peak in concentration but lacked a corresponding evening peak, suggesting commute-related traffic emissions are dominated by cold starts in residential areas. More monoterpene and monoterpenoid mass was assigned to consumer product emissions than biogenic sources, underscoring the increasing importance of volatile chemical products to urban emissions. Daytime isoprene concentrations were controlled by biogenic sunlight- and temperature-dependent processes, mediated by strong midday mixing, but gasoline was found to be the dominant and likely only source of isoprene at night. Biomass burning markers indicated residential wood burning activity remained an important pollution source even in the springtime. This study demonstrates that specific high-time-resolution molecular marker measurements across a wide range of volatility enable more comprehensive pollution source profiles than a narrower volatility range would allow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate-driven deterioration of future ozone pollution in Asia predicted by machine learning with multi-source data

Ozone (O 3 ) is a secondary pollutant in the atmosphere formed by photochemical reactions that endangers human health and ecosystems. O 3 has aggravated in Asia in recent decades and will vary in the future. In this study, to quantify the impacts of future climate change on O 3 pollution, near-surface O 3 concentrations over Asia in 2020–2100 are projected using a machine learning (ML) method along with multi-source data. The ML model is trained with combined O 3 data from a global atmospheric chemical transport model and real-time observations. The ML model is then used to estimate future O 3 with meteorological fields from multi-model simulations under various climate scenarios. The near-surface O 3 concentrations are projected to increase by 5 %–20 % over South China, Southeast Asia, and South India and less than 10 % over North China and the Gangetic Plains under the high-forcing scenarios in the last decade of 21st century, compared to the first decade of 2020–2100. The O 3 increases are primarily owing to the favorable meteorological conditions for O 3 photochemical formation in most Asian regions. We also find that the summertime O 3 pollution over eastern China will expand from North China to South China and extend into the cold season in a warmer future. Our results demonstrate the important role of a climate change penalty on Asian O 3 in the future, which provides implications for environmental and climate strategies of adaptation and mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global change - Geoengineering and space exploration

Geoengineering options and alternatives are proposed for mitigating the effects of global climate change and depletion of the ozone layer. Geoengineering options were discussed by the National Academy of Science Panel on the Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. Several of the ideas conveyed in their published report are space-based or depend on space systems for implementation. Among the geoengineering options using space that are discussed include the use of space power systems as an alternative to fossil fuels for generating electricity, the use of lunar He-3 to aid in the development of fusion energy, and the establishment of a lunar power system for solar energy conversion and electric power beaming back to earth. Other geoengineering options are discussed. They include the space-based modulation of hurricane forces and two space-based approaches in dealing with ozone layer depletion. The engineering challenges and policy implementation issues are discussed for these geongineering options.

Jenkins, Lyle M.↗

Response to Comment on 'Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power'

Sovacool et al.'s analysis of our paper contains numerous errors, misinterpretations, and dubious assumptions. For instance, we make no presumption in our paper that nuclear power is the only major option to replace fossil fuels nor have we in the past, as evidenced by our other peer-reviewed publications. Furthermore, all of our results are based on complete fuel cycle analysis and are presented as mean values along with their ranges. Thus it is incorrect to claim that we single out the worst estimates for coal mortality. Contrary to Sovacool et al.'s assertions, our only bias is our belief that humanity's best chance of success for mitigating the daunting challenge of climate change is to utilize all available and proven means.

coal↗

Extreme Wet and Dry Conditions Affected Differently by Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Global warming due to greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols alter precipitation rates, but the influence on extreme precipitation by aerosols relative to greenhouse gases is still not well known. Here we use the simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project that enable us to compare changes in mean and extreme precipitation due to greenhouse gases with those due to black carbon and sulfate aerosols, using indicators for dry extremes as well as for moderate and very extreme precipitation. Generally, we find that the more extreme a precipitation event is, the more pronounced is its response relative to global mean surface temperature change, both for aerosol and greenhouse gas changes. Black carbon (BC) stands out with distinct behavior and large differences between individual models. Dry days become more frequent with BC-induced warming compared to greenhouse gases, but so does the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation. An increase in sulfate aerosols cools the surface and thereby the atmosphere, and thus induces a reduction in precipitation with a stronger effect on extreme than on mean precipitation. A better understanding and representation of these processes in models will provide knowledge for developing strategies for both climate change and air pollution mitigation.

Sillmann, Jana↗

Using Landsat 8 Satellite Imagery to Analyze Biogeochemical Constituents in the Waters of the San Francisco Bay Area and Beyond

The ocean's coastal zones play a key role in our planet's health and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Building on the success of NASA satellite imagery in mapping land cover changes around the globe in response to climate change, deforestation, and natural disasters, I have worked to determine how aquatic reflectance images from the Landsat 8 sensor could be correlated with biogeochemical constituents within the waters of the San Francisco Bay Area and California coastline. By analyzing Landsat 8 satellite imagery from the years 2013-2020 in collaboration with data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI), and universities involved with the Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring and Alert Program (HABMAP), I investigated which areas of the San Francisco Bay and California coastline demonstrated significant correlations with values extracted from the satellite imagery. Using a Chlorophyll Index (CI) ratio calculated from two Landsat 8 satellite reflectance bands, it was found that there is a positive correlation between the CI and calculated oxygen, suspended particulate matter, and silicate from several USGS sampling points. In contrast, there is a significant negative correlation between the CI and salinity, nitrite, and phosphate at those same locations. Moreover, large suspected harmful algal blooms (HABs) along the California coastline seen in the Landsat 8 imagery were corroborated with HAB data from various institutions. Understanding the effectiveness of Landsat 8 aquatic reflectance images will allow scientists to predict HABs and other nutrient cycling that may be harmful to aquatic ecosystems around the world.

Landsat↗

Historical Changes in Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation Can Accelerate Global Warming

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change depend on accurate climate projections for the coming decades. While changes in radiative heat fluxes are known to contribute to surface warming, changes to ocean circulation can also impact the rate of surface warming. Previous studies suggest that projected changes to ocean circulation reduce the rate of global warming. However, these studies consider large greenhouse gas forcing scenarios, which induce a significant buoyancy-driven decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here, we use a climate model to quantify the previously unknown impact of changes to wind-driven ocean circulation on global surface warming. Wind-driven ocean circulation changes amplify the externally forced warming rate by 17% from 1979 to 2014. Accurately simulating changes to the atmospheric circulation is key to improving near-term climate projections.

wind stress↗

Generating a 4D Global CH(4) Product by Assimilating TROPOMI column CH(4) in NASA’s GEOS GCM

Examination of temporal and spatial CH4 variability is crucial for better understanding the human and natural processes driving climate change and ultimately designing mitigation strategies. Here we present an analysis framework that uses NASA’s GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) to construct a high-resolution, time varying picture of atmospheric CH4 consistent with measurements from a variety of platforms, both in situ and remotely sensed. The resulting time varying atmospheric CH4 product can (i) support interpretation of high-resolution point source detection approaches, (ii) provide reanalysis fields for CH4 and other greenhouse gases, and (iii) supply boundary conditions for regional models. Our approach starts with a set of CH4 emissions from various inventories that have been adjusted to match the global annual growth rate over recent decades. These emissions are transported by the GEOS GCM, which in turn is constrained by meteorology from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) product. The simulated atmospheric field is compared with CH4 measurements, such as those from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), and adjustments calculated following a Bayesian protocol. The accuracy of the resultant optimal atmospheric CH4 field can be demonstrated by its improved agreement (compared to a direct simulation of the CH4 inventories) with a host of independent CH4 measurements, such as those from the Total Carbon Column Observation Network (TCCON) and in situ observations from surface and airborne platforms.

Nikolay V. Balashov↗

Designing for Zero Energy and Zero Carbon on a Multi-Building Scale Using URBANopt: Preprint

Groundbreaking efforts are necessary to mitigate contributors increasing impacts of climate change. In parallel to inventing pioneering clean energy technologies it is even more fundamental to rethink designing energy systems within a singular facility and collectively to function as a district. Facilities should not be continuously passive by just consuming; there is a need to shift to perform more dynamically. Designing for zero energy and zero carbon on a multi-building scale can uncover opportunities for building energy efficiency, decarbonization, demand flexibility, and resiliency that are not accessible at an individual building scale. This approach can be challenging without innovative tools to evaluate the multitude of possibilities. As an investigated result, we highlight the use of a campus-scale energy modeling platform - URBANopt™ - for the expansion of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) South Table Mountain campus in Golden, Colorado. Programmatic growth included the design of three new all-electric, zero-energy, and zero-carbon, mixed used buildings (a combination of research laboratories and office space). This investigation is critical to NREL reaching net-zero emissions for its operational footprint, which will occur in phases over the next decade. Leveraging URBANopt's capabilities, we evaluate 1) high-performance building energy efficiency and decarbonization measures, 2) 4th generation district heating and cooling (4th GDHC) systems, 3) optimized onsite generation and energy storage assets that meet zero-energy and zero-carbon targets at minimum life-cycle costs, and 4) cost-optimal distributed energy technology mixes, dispatch strategies, and associated capacities that increase resiliency to grid outages. This work demonstrates the use and capabilities of URBANopt through a real-world case study on a multi-building scale.

community energy model↗

Thermal extremes in regulated river systems under climate change: an application to the southeastern U.S. rivers

High river temperatures, or “thermal extremes”, can cause fish mortality and thermoelectric powerplant derating. Under climate change, projected higher air temperature and stronger surface energy fluxes will lead to increased water temperatures, exacerbating thermal extremes. However, cold hypolimnetic releases from thermally stratified reservoirs can depress tailwater temperatures and therefore alleviate thermal extremes. Thermal extremes are more harmful when they coincide with low flows, which we refer to as “hydrologic hot-dry events”. To assess multisectoral impacts of climate change over large regions, we evaluate thermal events according to three impact attributes: duration (D), intensity (I), and severity (S). We apply an established model framework to simulate streamflow and stream temperature over the southeastern US regulated river system. We quantify climate change impacts (by the 2080s under RCP8.5) by comparing historical and future periods and quantify regulation impacts by comparing unregulated and regulated scenarios. We find that climate change will exacerbate thermal extremes (all three metrics) in both unregulated and regulated scenarios, albeit less in the regulated scenario. Thermal mitigation from reservoir regulation will be stronger under climate change, decreasing the three metrics compared to the unregulated case. Even so, thermal extremes in the regulated scenario will still be more severe under climate change, and only 12.2%, 19.7%, and 26.0% of D, I, and S can be mitigated by reservoirs. Despite stronger reservoir stratification, the number of regulated river segments that experience simultaneous high temperature and low flow events (hydrologic hot-dry events) will increase by 21.4% by the 2080s under RCP8.5. These events will have a median annual duration of 10.3 days/year, over 10 times the historical value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective

Mitigating carbon emissions in the current energy system will require fundamental changes of both the energy supply and the energy demand sectors. Previous global model-based analyses, however, have focused mostly on energy supply transformations, while the energy demand sector changes are less well understood. In this study, this knowledge gap is addressed by analysing in detail the projected future energy demand projections, and the required demand-side changes to reach stringent mitigation targets using a suite of integrated assessment models. We examine industry, transport and buildings sector pathways across four models and three different reference scenarios from the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway framework which is used as a set of common future perspectives by the climate research community. The demand side mitigation efforts are compared to a more detailed, sector-specific, technology-oriented assessments of abatement potential based on a literature review for the year 2030. The results indicate that strong emission growth in the industry and transport sector can be attributed to increasing final energy per capita and population growth. In the stringent mitigation scenarios energy efficiency, electrification and switching to low carbon fuel are all required in the short term. In the green growth SSP1 scenario the required emission reduction is significantly less than other scenarios showing that the demand growth and the technology development largely affects the sectors’ mitigation challenge. The technology assessment estimates that in particular in the transport and buildings sector there is a higher potential to reduce demand-side emissions through energy efficiency improvements than currently envisioned in the integrated assessment models.

Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.↗

The 38 th Annual Interdisciplinary Plant Group Symposium: Enhancing the Resilience of Plant Systems to Climate Change (Meeting Summary)

The University of Missouri’s Interdisciplinary Plant Group held its 38th annual symposium on May 25–27. In short, it was a resounding success! The air was almost electric because of a confluence of events that were particular to this symposium. Not only was there great enthusiasm from students attending their first ever scientific meeting, but this was coupled with excitement and delight exuded by many of our senior invited speakers, who were attending their first in-person meeting since the Covid pandemic began. After a long planning period, and with the ongoing pandemic injecting uncertainty, it was gratifying to see the symposium unfold with such excitement and engagement among participants. The symposium was organized to address the grand challenge of “Enhancing the Resilience of Plant System to Climate Change”, by bringing together experts at the intersections of multiple disciplines to educate our community on the opportunities to develop innovative mitigation strategies and to adapt plants to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate change and its influence on water systems increases the cost of electricity system decarbonization

The electric sector simultaneously faces two challenges: decarbonization to mitigate, and adaptation to manage, the impacts of climate change. In many regions, these challenges are compounded by an interdependence of electricity and water systems, with water needed for hydropower generation and electricity for water provision. Here, we couple detailed water and electricity system models to evaluate how the Western Interconnection grid can both adapt to climate change and develop carbon-free generation by 2050, while accounting for interactions and climate vulnerabilities of the water sector. We find that by 2050, due to climate change, annual regional electricity use could grow by up to 2% from cooling and water-related electricity demand, while total annual hydropower generation could decrease by up to 23%. To adapt, we show that the region may need to build up to 139 GW of additional generating capacity between 2030 and 2050, equivalent to nearly thrice California's peak demand, and could incur up to $\$$150 billion (+7%) in extra costs.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

The role of oxygen in stimulating methane production in wetlands

Methane (CH 4 ), a potent greenhouse gas, is the second most important greenhouse gas contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The biological emissions of CH 4 from wetlands are a major uncertainty in CH 4 budgets. Microbial methanogenesis by Archaea is an anaerobic process accounting for most biological CH 4 production in nature, yet recent observations indicate that large emissions can originate from oxygenated or frequently oxygenated wetland soil layers. To determine how oxygen (O 2 ) can stimulate CH 4 emissions, we used incubations of Sphagnum peat to demonstrate that the temporary exposure of peat to O 2 can increase CH 4 yields up to 2000-fold during subsequent anoxic conditions relative to peat without O 2 exposure. Geochemical (including ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, X-ray absorbance spectroscopy) and microbiome (16S rDNA amplicons, metagenomics) analyses of peat showed that higher CH 4 yields of redox-oscillated peat were due to functional shifts in the peat microbiome arising during redox oscillation that enhanced peat carbon (C) degradation. Novosphingobium species with O 2 -dependent aromatic oxygenase genes increased greatly in relative abundance during the oxygenation period in redox-oscillated peat compared to anoxic controls. Acidobacteria species were particularly important for anaerobic processing of peat C, including in the production of methanogenic substrates H 2 and CO 2 . Higher CO 2 production during the anoxic phase of redox-oscillated peat stimulated hydrogenotrophic CH 4 production by Methanobacterium species. The persistence of reduced iron (Fe(II)) during prolonged oxygenation in redox-oscillated peat may further enhance C degradation through abiotic mechanisms (e.g., Fenton reactions). The results indicate that specific functional shifts in the peat microbiome underlie O 2 enhancement of CH 4 production in acidic, Sphagnum-rich wetland soils. They also imply that understanding microbial dynamics spanning temporal and spatial redox transitions in peatlands is critical for constraining CH 4 budgets; predicting feedbacks between climate change, hydrologic variability, and wetland CH 4 emissions; and guiding wetland C management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Initial Exploratory Study of the Impacts of Climate Change on Air Traffic Operations

Climate change is already happening and is projected to accelerate in the future. It will persist for the foreseeable future, even with optimistic projections of technological advances and behavior changes. It will make aviation more and more challenging over time. Among other things, it is expected to cause increased severe weather, more extreme temperatures, and rising sea levels that constrain when, where, and how aircraft can fly. NASA has many prior, ongoing, and upcoming efforts towards mitigating the impacts of aviation on climate change. There is also a need to perform a comprehensive investigation of the reverse: that is, the impacts of climate change on aviation. This is an initial exploratory study on this topic utilizing the NAS Digital Twin—composed of the ATM TestBed simulation platform and NAS Digital Twin airspace management algorithms—to run NAS-wide simulations with Convective Weather Avoidance Model polygons at different avoidance thresholds to emulate the increase in severe weather that could manifest due to climate change. It was found that air traffic management may be able to limit the impact of climate change in terms of delay and fuel burn. However, increased severe weather due to climate change can make separation—particularly, aircraft-to-weather separation—more challenging by reducing available airspace and constraining the solution space. Challenging situations were identified and corresponding potential solutions were proposed towards ensuring air traffic operations continue to be robust and resilient to the impacts of increased severe weather due to climate change.

climate change, weather, air traffic operations↗

Evidence-based target setting informs blue carbon strategies for nationally determined contributions

The magnitude and pace of global climate change demand ambitious and effective implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Nature-based solutions present an efficient approach to achieving mitigation, adaptation and resilience goals. Yet few nations have quantified the diverse benefits of nature-based solutions to evaluate and select ecosystem targets for their NDCs. Here we report on Belize’s pursuit of innovative, evidence-based target setting by accounting for multiple benefits of blue carbon strategies. Through quantification of carbon storage and sequestration and optimization of co-benefits, we explore time-bound targets and prioritize locations for mangrove protection and restoration. We find increases in carbon benefits with larger mangrove investments, while fisheries, tourism and coastal risk-reduction co-benefits grow initially and then plateau. We identify locations, currently lacking protected status, where prioritizing blue carbon strategies would provide the greatest delivery of co-benefits to communities. These findings informed Belize’s updated NDCs to include an additional 12,000 ha of mangrove protection and 4,000 ha of mangrove restoration, respectively, by 2030. Our study serves as an example for the more than 150 other countries that have the opportunity to enhance greenhouse gas sequestration and climate adaptation by incorporating blue carbon strategies that provide multiple societal benefits into their NDCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗