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At least 685 records · Page 38

Deep Solar Activity Minimum 2007-2009: Solar Wind Properties and Major Effects on the Terrestrial Magnetosphere

We discuss the temporal variations and frequency distributions of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters during the solar minimum of 2007 - 2009 from measurements returned by the IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments on STEREO-A.We find that the density and total field strength were significantly weaker than in the previous minimum. The Alfven Mach number was higher than typical. This reflects the weakness of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) forces, and has a direct effect on the solar wind-magnetosphere interactions.We then discuss two major aspects that this weak solar activity had on the magnetosphere, using data from Wind and ground-based observations: i) the dayside contribution to the cross-polar cap potential (CPCP), and ii) the shapes of the magnetopause and bow shock. For i) we find a low interplanetary electric field of 1.3+/-0.9 mV/m and a CPCP of 37.3+/-20.2 kV. The auroral activity is closely correlated to the prevalent stream-stream interactions. We suggest that the Alfven wave trains in the fast streams and Kelvin-Helmholtz instability were the predominant agents mediating the transfer of solar wind momentum and energy to the magnetosphere during this three-year period. For ii) we determine 328 magnetopause and 271 bow shock crossings made by Geotail, Cluster 1, and the THEMIS B and C spacecraft during a three-month interval when the daily averages of the magnetic and kinetic energy densities attained their lowest value during the three years under survey.We use the same numerical approach as in Fairfield's empirical model and compare our findings with three magnetopause models. The stand-off distance of the subsolar magnetopause and bow shock were 11.8 R(sub E) and 14.35 R(sub E), respectively. When comparing with Fairfield's classic result, we find that the subsolar magnetosheath is thinner by approx. 1 R(sub E). This is mainly due to the low dynamic pressure which results in a sunward shift of the magnetopause. The magnetopause is more flared than in Fairfield's model. By contrast the bow shock is less flared, and the latter is the result of weaker MHD forces.

solar minimum↗

The Effect of Roughness Model on Scattering Properties of Ice Crystals.

We compare stochastic models of microscale surface roughness assuming uniform and Weibull distributions of crystal facet tilt angles to calculate scattering by roughened hexagonal ice crystals using the geometric optics (GO) approximation. Both distributions are determined by similar roughness parameters, while the Weibull model depends on the additional shape parameter. Calculations were performed for two visible wavelengths (864 nm and 410 nm) for roughness values between 0.2 and 0.7 and Weibull shape parameters between 0 and 1.0 for crystals with aspect ratios of 0.21, 1 and 4.8. For this range of parameters we find that, for a given roughness level, varying the Weibull shape parameter can change the asymmetry parameter by up to about 0.05. The largest effect of the shape parameter variation on the phase function is found in the backscattering region, while the degree of linear polarization is most affected at the side-scattering angles. For high roughness, scattering properties calculated using the uniform and Weibull models are in relatively close agreement for a given roughness parameter, especially when a Weibull shape parameter of 0.75 is used. For smaller roughness values, a shape parameter close to unity provides a better agreement. Notable differences are observed in the phase function over the scattering angle range from 5deg to 20deg, where the uniform roughness model produces a plateau while the Weibull model does not.

Weibull density functions↗

Effect of microstructure and temperature on nuclear graphite oxidation using the 3D Random Pore Model

This work compared the 3D Random Pore Model (3D-RPM) with experimental and characterization data to systematically study the effect of nuclear graphite microstructure and air oxidation temperature. It is well known that oxidation-induced weight loss at elevated temperatures degrades graphite structure and properties; however, a fundamental understanding of the role of graphite microstructure is still unclear. In this work, three diverse grades of nuclear graphite—IG-110, NBG-18, and PCEA—were examined and tested at air oxidation temperatures of 600, 650, 700, and 750 °C following ASTM D7542. Here, the 3D-RPM reproduced the microstructure and temperature dependence of mass loss curves for these grades. For the first time, measurements and modeling were combined to show how bulk density and the amount and spatial distribution of open and closed porosity affects oxidation. IG-110 was less dense and had an open pore network that is finer and more uniformly spread, and showed fastest oxidation. PCEA porosity was less uniform and showed less oxidation, while NBG-18 was more dense, had the least fine and uniform porosity, and showed the slowest oxidation. In general, oxidation proceeds faster if open porosity is more uniformly distributed and can incrementally access closed pore surface area with more ease.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Skin and Proximity Effects in Electrodes and Furnace Shells

A review of two-dimensional (2D) analytical models of skin and proximity effects in large industrial furnaces with three electrodes arranged in an equilateral triangle is given. The models cover three different cases: one electrode only, three electrodes where two are approximated by line currents, and induced shell currents where all electrodes are approximated by line currents. The first two models show how the skin and proximity effects depend on electrode material properties and size, and the distance between the electrodes. The third model shows how the strength of the induced shell currents will depend on electrode position and furnace size. These models are compared to numerical studies including distributed electrodes and shell currents. The analytical models are accurate when induced shell currents can be disregarded. However, strong shell currents may have a significant impact on the current distribution within the electrodes. This electrode-shell proximity effect competes with the electrode-electrode proximity effect. Finally, the 2D models have been compared with three-dimensional (3D) case studies of large industrial furnaces. In 3D, the shell currents are significantly smaller than what are predicted by the 2D models, but they are sufficiently strong to cause a significant correction of the electrode current density.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Prediction of Wind Tunnel Effects on the Installed F/A-18A Inlet Flow Field at High Angles-of-attack

NASA Lewis is currently engaged in a research effort as a team member of the High Alpha Technology Program (HATP) within NASA. This program utilizes a specially equipped F/A-18A, the High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV), in an ambitious effort to improve the maneuverability of high performance military aircraft at low subsonic speed, high angle of attack conditions. The overall objective of the Lewis effort is to develop inlet technology that will ensure efficient airflow delivery to the engine during these maneuvers. One part of the Lewis approach utilizes computational fluid dynamics codes to predict the installed performance of inlets for these highly maneuverable aircraft. Wind tunnel tests were a major component of the Lewis program. Since the available wind tunnel was small (9 x 15 ft) as compared to the scale of the model of the F/A-18A (19.78 percent), there were questions about the capability to obtain useful inlet performance data. The blockage effects were expected to be very large. This report represents the results of an analysis to determine how the wind tunnel walls effect inlet performance at several angles of attack. The predictions for the external particle traces along the fuselage indicate the influence of the wind tunnel side wall under the model is greater at 30 deg angle of attack than at 50 deg angle of attack on the under Leading Edge Extension (LEX) vortex trajectory. The side wall above the model appears to have negligible influence on the under LEX vortex. This may be due to the LEX acting as 'shield' to the upper wall effects. As expected, the wind tunnel has a significant influence on the external forces. The lift and drag coefficients increase significantly for the wind tunnel model as compared to free stream conditions. The wind tunnel had a small effect on the inlet recovery and on inlet total pressure distortion patterns. The predicted recoveries for the wind tunnel model are within one percentage point of the model recoveries in free stream conditions.

Smith, Crawford F.↗

Observations of diurnal variations of BrO and OClO at McMurdo Station, Antarctica (78S)

Observations of the diurnal variations of OClO and BrO during austral spring, 1987 using long-path visible and near-ultraviolet absorption spectroscopy are presented and compared to simplified model calculations. It is shown that care must be taken to compare model calculations and measurements along the line of sight of the instrument. Evening twilight observations of OClO are shown to be broadly consistent with current photochemical schemes, assuming ClO and BrO levels near 50 mb of about 0.5 ppbv and 7 pptv, respectively, throughout the observing period from late Aug. to mid-Oct. Nighttime observations of OClO obtained using the moon as a light source display evidence for growth through the night in late-Aug., but not in late-Sept. Further, the observed morning twilight OClO abundances are in agreement with model calculations in late August, but generally fall below in late September and October. Observations of BrO in mid-Sept. systematically show far greater evening twilight than morning twilight abundances.

Solomon, S.↗

Transient cryogenic liquid discharge in normal and micro-gravity

Transient discharge of liquid cryogens from partially filled tanks under microgravity is considered. The discharge is made to a low-pressure site through a straight tube. The ultimate objective of the study is to predict the transient mass flow rate. In addition, the pressure history in the tank is of interest, since the pressure falls below the triple point toward the end of the dump, causing solidification in the tank and/or the discharge line. As first steps, experiments have been performed in normal gravity and attempts are made to predict the transient rate and pressure history under this condition. Experiments are performed with liquid nitrogen dumped to sites with pressures below the triple point. Homogeneous equilibrium and nonequilibrium two-phase critical flow models are compared to the experimental results. Equilibrium and nonequilibrium tank pressure history models are also compared to experimental data.

Purwin, T. P.↗

Comparison of measured and predicted sea surface spectra of short waves

Reliable sea surface slope time series, using a laseroptical receiver system deployed on a wave follower, are analyzed to yield slope frequency spectra of the ocean surface up to 300 Hz. The results show significant differences when compared with the Pierson and Stacy (1973) model. An epirical model is proposed in this paper that is consistent with the observed slope spectra. The newly proposed model is compared with other more recently advanced shortwave spectral models.

Shemdin, O. H.↗

Comparing Ice Jam Hindcasting Models with Tree Scar Data

Hindcasting models can use historic ice jam observations and hydroclimatic data to identify conditions that form ice jams.However, historic ice jam records are often sparse or incomplete. New sources of historic ice jam data could improve hindcasting models, leading to better ice jam forecasting and flood warning systems. Because ice jams damage riparian trees, marker rings associated with historic scars include information about ice jam frequency and severity. This study examined marker rings from 56 trees along the Muskegon River to supplement the historic ice jam data on this system. The study team compared tree ring data to results from hindcasting models, which were independently validated with newspaper reports on 1,500 separate days. Logistic regression converted the marker ring data into annual ice jam probabilities. Ice jam dates from the dendrochronology data were too noisy to train or validate a hindcasting model. However, the marker ring data did confirm that ice jams on the Muskegon are nonstationary. Ice jams are significantly more likely now than they were before 1966.The marker rings also helped to distinguish between false-negatives and nondetects in the hindcasting model.

Stanford Gibson↗

A Comparison of Infectious Disease Forecasting Methods across Locations, Diseases, and Time

Accurate infectious disease forecasting can inform efforts to prevent outbreaks and mitigate adverse impacts. This study compares the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) approaches in forecasting infectious disease incidences across different countries and time intervals. We forecasted three diverse diseases: campylobacteriosis, typhoid, and Q-fever, using a wide variety of features (n = 46) from public datasets, e.g., landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. We compared autoregressive statistical models to two tree-based ML models (extreme gradient boosted trees [XGB] and random forest [RF]) and two DL models (multi-layer perceptron and encoder–decoder model). The disease models were trained on data from seven different countries at the region-level between 2009–2017. Forecasting performance of all models was assessed using mean absolute error, root mean square error, and Poisson deviance across Australia, Israel, and the United States for the months of January through August of 2018. The overall model results were compared across diseases as well as various data splits, including country, regions with highest and lowest cases, and the forecasted months out (i.e., nowcasting, short-term, and long-term forecasting). Overall, the XGB models performed the best for all diseases and, in general, tree-based ML models performed the best when looking at data splits. There were a few instances where the statistical or DL models had minutely smaller error metrics for specific subsets of typhoid, which is a disease with very low case counts. Feature importance per disease was measured by using four tree-based ML models (i.e., XGB and RF with and without region name as a feature). The most important feature groups included previous case counts, region name, population counts and density, mortality causes of neonatal to under 5 years of age, sanitation factors, and elevation. This study demonstrates the power of ML approaches to incorporate a wide range of factors to forecast various diseases, regardless of location, more accurately than traditional statistical approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Soil Carbonyl Sulfide (OCS) Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems: An Empirical Model

Measurements of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) enable independent estimates of regional stomatal conductance provided that non-stomatal OCS fluxes are well constrained. OCS is taken up through plant leaves, following the same pathway as CO 2 ; in contrast to CO 2 , OCS is irreversibly destroyed in plant leaves and plants do not typically exhibit OCS emissions. Ecosystem uptake of OCS can indicate changes in stomatal opening. Here we present an empirical model to assess the potential impact of soil OCS exchange, the non-Stomatal OCS exchange Empirical Model (SOCSEM, version 0). We created biome-specific response curves characterizing soil OCS exchange and restricted the model design to require only knowledge of soil moisture and surface temperature because remote sensing observations are available for these two features. Comparing the model to field-based chamber observations reveal deviations that can be attributed to missing complexity of the ground surface (having excluded litter and plants without regulated stomata), shortwave radiation, or the soil environment. For agricultural regions with known net emissions, we use remotely-sensed surface temperature data and demonstrate that data resolution can affect anticipated fluxes. We further investigate the influence of regions with unknown soil OCS responses, for example, Arctic tundra. We compare our model to a process-based and respiration-based soil OCS exchange model that has been implemented in a land surface model. Further field study of tropical and arctic ecosystems in conjunction with studies of non-stomatal surfaces in addition to soil (e.g., bryophytes) will increase confidence in applying OCS as a regional tracer for stomatal conductance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparing the results of an analytical model of the no-vent fill process with no-vent fill test results for a 4.96 cu m (175 cu ft) tank

NASA-Lewis has been investigating a no-vent fill method for refilling cryogenic storage tanks in low gravity. Analytical modeling based on analyzing the heat transfer of a droplet has successfully represented the process in 0.034 and 0.142 sq m commercial dewars using liquid nitrogen and hydrogen. Recently a large tank (4.96 sq m) was tested with hydrogen. This lightweight tank is representative of spacecraft construction. This paper presents efforts to model the large tank test data. The droplet heat transfer model is found to overpredict the tank pressure level when compared to the large tank data. A new model based on equilibrium thermodynamics has been formulated. This new model is compared to the published large scale tank's test results as well as some additional test runs with the same equipment. The results are shown to match the test results within the measurement uncertainty of the test data except for the initial transient wall cooldown where it is conservative (i.e., overpredicts the initial pressure spike found in this time frame).

Taylor, William J.↗

The Effect of Seasonal and Long-Period Geopotential Variations on the GPS Orbits

We examine the impact of using seasonal and long-period time-variable gravity field (TVG) models on GPS orbit determination, through simulations from 1994 to 2012. The models of time-variable gravity that we test include the GRGS release RL02 GRACE-derived 10-day gravity field models up to degree and order 20 (grgs20x20), a 4 x 4 series of weekly coefficients using GGM03S as a base derived from SLR and DORIS tracking to 11 satellites (tvg4x4), and a harmonic fit to the above 4 x 4 SLR-DORIS time series (goco2s_fit2). These detailed models are compared to GPS orbit simulations using a reference model (stdtvg) based on the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) and International GNSS Service (IGS) repro1 standards. We find that the new TVG modeling produces significant along, cross-track orbit differences as well as annual, semi-annual, draconitic and long-period effects in the Helmert translation parameters (Tx, Ty, Tz) of the GPS orbits with magnitudes of several mm. We show that the simplistic TVG modeling approach used by all of the IGS Analysis Centers, which is based on the models provided by the IERS standards, becomes progressively less adequate following 2006 when compared to the seasonal and long-period TVG models.

Orbit determination↗

Do Remote Camera Arrangements and Image Capture Settings Improve Individual Identification of Golden Eagles?

Individual identification of animals from camera traps has become an important task in wildlife research, but camera deployment methods often do not facilitate this important undertaking. Identification of individual golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is possible using uniquely marked rectrices, but no studies have explored methods to maximize the rate of individual identification from camera images. Furthermore, our objectives were to assess whether different camera heights (1 m vs. 3 m), image capture settings (one image after a 1-min delay vs. burst of 5 images after a 30 sec delay), and arrangements relative to bait (dorsally vs. ventrally aimed) affected views of rectrices on golden eagles and our ability to identify individuals. We conducted our study from 15 December 2016 to 3 March 2017 on the Savannah River Site, South Carolina. First, we developed a scoring system based on views of rectrices and used a linear mixed-effects model to compare image scores among different camera arrangements and image settings. Next, after identifying individual eagles, we used generalized linear mixed-effects models to compare total individual eagle detections, total days an individual was detected, and probability of obtaining an unknown individual identification among camera arrangements and settings. Overall, we scored a total of 27,499 images, with 8,083 providing views of marked rectrices that allowed identification of 18 individual eagles. Average image scores and proportion of images suitable for individual identification were higher from elevated (3 m) camera arrangements than standard arrangements (1 m) across sites. Regardless of camera height, faster frequency of image capture provided more images that could be used to identify individuals and the most trap days per individual. Researchers and managers should consider deploying elevated cameras traps with faster frequency of image capture to improve data quality and potential for analysis of golden eagle populations and trends across the species’ range.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Jets from main sequence and white dwarf companions during common envelope evolution

ABSTRACT It has long been speculated that jet feedback from accretion on to the companion during a common envelope (CE) event could affect the orbital evolution and envelope unbinding process. We present global 3D hydrodynamical simulations of CE evolution (CEE) that include a jet subgrid model and compare them with an otherwise identical model without a jet. Our binary consists of a 2-M⊙ red giant branch primary and a 1- or 0.5-M⊙ main sequence (MS) or white dwarf (WD) secondary companion modelled as a point particle. We run the simulations for 10 orbits (40 d). Our jet model adds mass at a constant rate $\dot{M}_\mathrm{j}$ of the order of the Eddington rate, with maximum velocity vj of the order of the escape speed, to two spherical sectors with the jet axis perpendicular to the orbital plane. We explore the influence of the jet on orbital evolution, envelope morphology and envelope unbinding, and assess the dependence of the results on the jet mass-loss rate, launch speed, companion mass, opening angle, and accretion rate. In line with our theoretical estimates, jets are choked around the time of first periastron passage and remain choked thereafter. Subsequent to choking, but not before, jets efficiently transfer energy to bound envelope material. This leads to increases in unbound mass of up to $\sim 10{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, as compared to the simulations without jets. We also estimate the cumulative effects of jets over a full CE phase, finding that jets launched by MS and WD companions are unlikely to dominate envelope unbinding.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Designing Iowa Agricultural Landscapes to Improve Environmental Co-Benefits of Bioenergy Production

Cellulosic bioenergy feedstocks are needed to improve carbon (C) management while provisioning biomass for bioproducts and biofuel. The transition to increased cellulosic biomass production can be guided by land management plans designed to improve economic, environmental, and ecological performance. We constructed a sustainability model to compare landscape designs for biofuel production from corn (Zea mays L.) stover and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) in central Iowa, USA. We used the model to compare environmental and socioeconomic outcomes associated with four landscape management strategies, with and without cellulosic biomass markets. We evaluated (1) a fuelshed area containing over 1.2 million ha (3 million acres) of corn and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) within 80 km (50 miles) of a commercial-scale cellulosic biorefinery in Nevada, Iowa, and (2) the South Fork watershed containing over 72,000 ha (178,000 acres) of these row crops within eight north central Iowa HUC-12 (hydrologic unit code) watersheds. At both landscape scales, we found that it is possible to achieve multiple environmental and socioeconomic benefits concomitantly with cellulosic biomass production by strategically collecting corn stover and converting the 10% of the lowest-profitability row crop land to perennial switchgrass. Potential benefits from landscape design include increased biodiversity, soil and water quality improvements, increased soil carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation, and reduced fertilizer use and cost. Our model results showed that increasing benefits can accrue when complementary conservation practices (e.g., reduced tillage, use of a rye cover crop) are combined and integrated throughout a fuelshed or watershed area. We conclude that ecologically based landscape designs offer valuable insights about costs and benefits of land management alternatives, with relevance for achieving stakeholder goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The motions of clusters and group of galaxies

The distributions of peculiar velocities of rich clusters and of groups of galaxies are investigated for different cosmological models and are compared with observations. Four cosmological models are studied: standard cold dark matter (CDM) (omega = 1); low-density CDM (omega = 0.3); hot dark matter (HDM) (omega = 1); and primeval baryonic isocurvature (PBI) (omega = 0.3). All models are normalized to the microwave background fluctuations observed by Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE). We find that rich clusters of galaxies exhibit a Maxwellian distribution of peculiar velocities in all models, as expected from a Gaussian initial density field. The clusters appear to be fundamental and efficient tracers of the large-scale velocity field. The cluster three-dimensional velocity distribution typically peaks at v approximately 600 km/s and extends to high cluster velocities of v approximately 2000 km/s. The low-density CDM model exhibits somewhat lower velocities: it peaks at approximately 400 km/s and extends to approximately 1200 km/s. Approximately 10% (approximately 1% for low-density CDM) of all model rich clusters move with high peculiar velocities of V greater than or = 10(exp 3) km/s. The highest velocity clusters frequently originate in dense superclusters. The model velocity distributions of rich clusters are compared with the model velocity distributions of small groups of galaxies, and of the total matter. The group velocity distribution is, in general, similar to the velocity distribution of the rich clusters. The matter velocity distribution is similar to that of the rich clusters for the omega = 0.3 models; these models exhibit Maxwellian velocity distributions for clusters, for groups, and for matter that are all similar to one another. The mass distribution in the omega = 1 models, however, exhibits a longer tail of high velocities than do the clusters. This high-velocity tail originates mostly from the high velocities that exist within rich clusters. The model velocity distributions of groups and clusters of galaxies are compared with observations. The data exhibit a larger high-velocity tail, to v(sub r) greater than or = 2000 km/s, than is seen in the model simulations (except for HDM). Because of the large observational uncertainties, however, the data are consistent at a approximately 1-3 sigma level with the model predictions and with a Gaussian initial density field. Accurate observations of cluster peculiar velocities, especially at the high-velocity tail, shoud provide powerful constraints on the cosmological models.

Bahcall, Neta A.↗

Fully‐Printed Ion Sensor Arrays for Measuring Agricultural Nitrogen and Potassium Concentrations Using Nernstian and AI Models

Abstract The chemical composition of growing media is a key factor for plant growth, impacting agricultural yield and sustainability. However, there is a lack of affordable chemical sensors for ubiquitous nutrient ion monitoring in agricultural applications. This work investigates using fully printed ion‐sensor arrays to measure the concentrations of nitrate, ammonium, and potassium in mixed‐electrolyte media. Ion sensor arrays composed of nitrate, ammonium, and potassium ion‐selective electrodes and a printed silver‐silver chloride (Ag/AgCl) reference electrode are fabricated and characterized in aqueous solutions in a range of concentrations that encompass what is typical for agricultural growing media (0.01 m m –1 m ). The sensors are also tested in mixed‐electrolyte solutions of NaNO 3 , NH 4 Cl, and KCl of varying concentrations, and the recorded potentials are input into Nernstian and artificial neural network models to compare the prediction accuracy of the models against ground truth. The artificial neural network models demonstrated higher accuracy over the Nernstian model, and the model using only ion‐sensor inputs is 7.5% more accurate than the Nernstian model under the same conditions. By enabling more precise and efficient fertilizer application, these sensor arrays coupled to computational models can help increase crop yields, optimize resource use, and reduce environmental impact.

Goodrich, Payton [University of California Berkele↗