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At least 685 records · Page 38

Satellite Observations of Solar Irradiance and Sun-Climate Impacts

Solar activity is now near its maximum, with events such as the 2001 "Bastille Day Event", a Coronal Mass Ejection which merited a full session at AGO'S annual meeting - and two major sunspot groupings earlier this year, with associated variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance). We discuss recent satellite measurements of TSI by ACRIM 2 and 3 And Virgo, and new precision observations of TSI and SSI (Solar Spectral Irradiance) expected from the SORCE mission, planned to launch in fall 2002. SSG has been added to TSI as a required EOS and NPOESS measurement because different spectral components provide energy inputs to different components of the climate system - UV into upper atmosphere and ozone, IR into lower atmosphere and clouds, and Visible into the biosphere. Succeeding satellite missions being planned for 2006 and 2010 will continue to monitor both TSI and SSI. We summarize current ideas about the potential impact of solar variability on Earth's climate on time scales from days to decades to centuries.

Cahalan, R.↗

Eo-1 Hyperion Measures Canopy Drought Stress In Amazonia

The central, south and southeast portions of the Amazon Basin experience a period of decreased cloud cover and precipitation from June through November. There are likely important effects of seasonal and interannual rainfall variation on forest leaf area index, canopy water stress, productivity and regional carbon cycling in the Amazon. While both ground and spaceborne studies of precipitation continue to improve, there has been almost no progress made in observing forest canopy responses to rainfall variability in the humid tropics. This shortfall stems from the large stature of the vegetation and great spatial extent of tropical forests, both of which strongly impede field studies of forest responses to water availability. Those few studies employing satellite measures of canopy responses to seasonal and interannual drought (e.g., Bohlman et al. 1998, Asner et al. 2000) have been limited by the spectral resolution and sampling available from Landsat and AVHRR sensors. We report on a study combining the first landscape-level, managed drought experiment in Amazon tropical forest with the first spaceborne imaging spectrometer observations of this experimental area. Using extensive field data on rainfall inputs, soil water content, and both leaf and canopy responses, we test the hypothesis that spectroscopic signatures unique to hyperspectral observations can be used to quantify relative differences in canopy stress resulting from water availability.

Asner, Gregory P.↗

Climate-Related Trends, Human Induced Trends, and False-Trends in Seven Years of Terrestrial Water Storage Observations from GRACE

GRACE is unique among remote sensing systems in its ability to "see" below the first few centimeters of the land surface, and it has provided the first global observations of total terrestrial water storage variations. Now that we have more than seven years of GRACE measurements, it is tempting to look for trends in the data. Auxiliary information is almost always required in order to arrive at the correct diagnosis of an apparent trend. Here we will present a map of GRACE derived terrestrial water storage tendencies since 2002 and attempt to explain which are likely to continue due to climatic or human pressures, and which are short-term expressions of natural interannual variability.

Rodell, Matt↗

Changes in the Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a Warming Climate During 2003-2009

Mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) derived from ICESat and GRACE data both show that the net mass loss from GIS during 2003-2009 is about 175 Gt/year, which contributes 0.5mm/yr global sea-level rise. The rate of mass loss has increased significantly since the 1990's when the GIS was close to mass balance. Even though the GIS was close to mass balance during the 1990's, it was already showing characteristics of responding to8 warmer climate, specifically thinning at the margins and thickening inland at higher elevations. During 2003-2009, increased ice thinning due to increases in melting and acceleration of outlet glaciers began to strongly exceed the inland thickening from increases in accumulation. Over the entire GIS, the mass loss between the two periods, from increased melting and ice dynamics, increased by about 190 Gt/year while the mass gain, from increased precipitation and accumulation, increased by only about 15Gt/year. These ice changes occurred during a time when the temperature on GIS changed at rate of about 2K/decade. The distribution of elevation and mass changes derived from ICESat have high spatial resolution showing details over outlet glaciers, by drainage systems, and by elevation. However, information on the seasonal cycle of changes from ICESat data is limited, because the ICESat lasers were only operated during two to three campaigns per year of about 35 days duration each. In contrast, the temporal resolution of GRACE data, provided by the continuous data collection, is much better showing details of the seasonal cycle and the inter-annual variability. The differing sensitivity of the ICESat altimetry and the GRACE gravity methods to motion of the underlying bedrock from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is used to evaluate the GIA corrections provided by models. The two data types are also combined to make estimates of the partitioning of the mass gains and losses among accumulation, melting, and ice discharge from outlet glaciers.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

The Cabauw Intercomparison Campaign for Nitrogen Dioxide Measuring Instruments (CINDI): Design, Execution, and Early Results

From June to July 2009 more than thirty different in-situ and remote sensing instruments from all over the world participated in the Cabauw Intercomparison campaign for Nitrogen Dioxide measuring Instruments (CINDI). The campaign took place at KNMI's Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research (CESAR) in the Netherlands. Its main objectives were to determine the accuracy of state-ofthe- art ground-based measurement techniques for the detection of atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (both in-situ and remote sensing), and to investigate their usability in satellite data validation. The expected outcomes are recommendations regarding the operation and calibration of such instruments, retrieval settings, and observation strategies for the use in ground-based networks for air quality monitoring and satellite data validation. Twenty-four optical spectrometers participated in the campaign, of which twenty-one had the capability to scan different elevation angles consecutively, the so-called Multi-axis DOAS systems, thereby collecting vertical profile information, in particular for nitrogen dioxide and aerosol. Various in-situ samplers and lidar instruments simultaneously characterized the variability of atmospheric trace gases and the physical properties of aerosol particles. A large data set of continuous measurements of these atmospheric constituents has been collected under various meteorological conditions and air pollution levels. Together with the permanent measurement capability at the CESAR site characterizing the meteorological state of the atmosphere, the CINDI campaign provided a comprehensive observational data set of atmospheric constituents in a highly polluted region of the world during summertime. First detailed comparisons performed with the CINDI data show that slant column measurements of NO2, O4 and HCHO with MAX-DOAS agree within 5 to 15%, vertical profiles of NO2 derived from several independent instruments agree within 25% of one another, and MAX-DOAS aerosol optical thickness agrees within 20-30% with AERONET data. For the in-situ NO2 instrument using a molybdenum converter, a bias was found as large as 5 ppbv during day time, when compared to the other in-situ instruments using photolytic converters.

Atmospheric composition↗

Climate Forcing Datasets for Agricultural Modeling: Merged Products for Gap-Filling and Historical Climate Series Estimation

The AgMERRA and AgCFSR climate forcing datasets provide daily, high-resolution, continuous, meteorological series over the 1980-2010 period designed for applications examining the agricultural impacts of climate variability and climate change. These datasets combine daily resolution data from retrospective analyses (the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR) with in situ and remotely-sensed observational datasets for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, leading to substantial reductions in bias in comparison to a network of 2324 agricultural-region stations from the Hadley Integrated Surface Dataset (HadISD). Results compare favorably against the original reanalyses as well as the leading climate forcing datasets (Princeton, WFD, WFD-EI, and GRASP), and AgMERRA distinguishes itself with substantially improved representation of daily precipitation distributions and extreme events owing to its use of the MERRA-Land dataset. These datasets also peg relative humidity to the maximum temperature time of day, allowing for more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle of near-surface moisture in agricultural models. AgMERRA and AgCFSR enable a number of ongoing investigations in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related research networks, and may be used to fill gaps in historical observations as well as a basis for the generation of future climate scenarios.

Climate Forcing Data↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-26965-DND

A comprehensive understanding of the spatial and temporal distributions of clouds on a global scale can be best achieved when the vertical distributions and multi-layer occurrence frequencies obtained from active remote sensors are fully integrated with the horizontal distributions currently provided by passive sensors. The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) satellite lidar onboard the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) spacecraft was specially designed to acquire aerosol and cloud profiles with unprecedented high vertical resolution and accuracy. As a part of the A-Train satellite constellation, CALIPSO has been operating routinely for more than 10 years and continues to provide a wealth of cloud observations to describe the mean state and inter-annual variability. Recently a suite of level 3 (L3) cloud products has been under development by the CALIPSO lidar science working group at the NASA Langley Research Center. These products describe 3-dimensional (3D) cloud occurrence and 3D ice cloud extinction coefficients and ice water content. Future evolution of the products will add observations from the Imaging Infrared Radiometer onboard CALIPSO. Here we present a brief introduction and provide results from a product prototype. We will characterize the inter-annual vertical variability of zonal cloud occurrence and ice water content during the last 10 years. Suggestions and comments are welcome to help us design and provide better cloud climatology products using CALIOP observations for our cloud community.

Xia Cai↗

Lila: Optimal Dispatching in Probabilistic Temporal Networks using Monte Carlo Tree Search

Executing a Probabilistic Simple Temporal Network (PSTN) amounts at scheduling, i.e. \textit{dispatch}, a set of events under time uncertainty. This constitutes a NP-hard online optimization problem. The right execution time must be dynamically assigned to each event of the PSTN such that the temporal constraints are met, whereas activity durations are progressively observed as the execution unfolds. We propose a dispatching algorithm based on Monte Carlo Tree Search, called Lila, with the following characteristics: (i) it is an anytime algorithm, both offline and online, proven asymptotically optimal; (ii) it returns the current probability of success, either before or at any moment during operations; (iii) it handles any possible continuous or discrete, even non-parametric, probability distributions, as well as inter-dependencies between random variables, exogenous and endogenous uncertainty; and (iv) can be easily extended to handle probabilistic external events, PSTNs with resources, PSTNs with cutoff times and precondition chains, etc. Lila is universal in the sense that it can handle any dispatching protocol, simply by specifying it to the algorithm. It has the unlimited flexibility offered by the simulation paradigm, whilst it asymptotically converges to optimal decisions and/or robustness approximations.

Chien, Steve A.↗

Utilizing Libya-4 to Intercalibrate Overlapping Sensors in the Same Sun-Synchronous Orbit

The NASA CERES observed SW and LW broadband fluxes are utilized by the climate community for monitoring the Earth’s energy imbalance and for climate model validation. The SNPP and NOAA20 CERES instruments and associated VIIRS imagers were launched into the same 1:30 PM mean local time sun-sun-synchronous orbits as well as the future NOAA22 Libera broadband instrument and VIIRS imager. The overlapping sensor records need to be intercalibrated to enable consistent broadband fluxes and imager cloud retrievals. The overlapping satellites are typically placed a half an orbit apart, thus preventing any simultaneous nadir overpass (SNO) events required for time-matched inter-calibration strategies. A Pseudo Invariant Calibration Site (PICS), such as Libya-4, can provide overlapping sensor radiometric scaling factors without the use of SNOs. The clear-sky Libya-4 observed radiances were characterized both spectrally and angularly and corrected for atmospheric effects. The Libya-4 natural variability was found to be consistent across the CERES and VIIRS records. This fact reveals that the sensor onboard calibration anomalies are smaller than the Libya-4 natural variability. By mitigating the Libya-4 natural variability will reduce the radiometric scaling factor uncertainty needed to provide both broadband flux and cloud retrieval continuity across the overlapping sensor records.

D R Doelling↗

Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

Mu, M.↗

[Activities of Space Telescope Science Institute with the Hubble Space Telescope]

A number of studies, especially in recent years with the Hubble Space Telescope's (HST) Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS), have been presented on the UV line profiles of late-type stars. Generally, these consist of a few "snapshot" spectra of several different key diagnostic emission lines. From this it has become clear that many active stars possess non-gaussian line profiles. Unlike the case with AR Lac, observed with IUE, no assymetric profile has been clearly identified that results from an inhomogeneous surface temperature or density distribution. In 1993 we attempted to observe the RS CVn binary V711 Tau at several phases with the GHRS in a number of UV bandpasses in order to study profile variations as a function of phase. Unfortunately, scheduling problems, pointing errors, continuous flaring and the sparse and uneven phase sampling prevented us from achieving the primary goal. However, it is clear that a number of UV lines in the system, notably C IV, Si IV and Mg II show very extended emission out to several hundred km/s. The profiles were also clearly variable. Vilhu et al. (1997) and Walter et al. (1995) conducted a campaign on the rapidly rotating, single star AB Dor, where they observed C IV continuously for 14 hours. They found extended, non-gaussian emission in the C IV doublet and that Doppler images derived from these images were remarkably similar to the simultaneous spot-image. In a follow up study of V711 Tau we have observed another RS CVn with complete phase coverage in three key wavelength bandpasses, utilizing the ability of HST to observe some stars at high latitudes in uninterrupted fashion. Generally classified as an RS CVn, V824 Ara (HD 155555) consists of a G5 IV star in a short period orbit (P=ld.68) with a K0 V-IV companion. However, the system does not eclipse and therefore does not rigorously fit the Hall (1976) definition. There is also a visual M star companion (LDS587B) 33 arcsec away. The space velocities of the stars suggests that the binary is part of the young disk population which agrees with the high Li I lambda 6708 abundance. With the M star companion showing very high levels of activity it seems likely that the V824 Ara +LDS587B system is pre-main sequence. With rotational velocities of 37 km/s and 29 km/s for the G and K star components respectively, the system is very similar to V711 Tau. Photometric observations by Cutispoto (1993) show an amplitude, delta V approx. = 0.12 with a period equal to the orbital value derived by Pasquini et at. (1991). Dempsey et al. (1993a) found a PSPC X-ray luminosity of 2.74 x 10(exp 30)erg/s. Two-temperature coronal models were applied to the PSPC X-ray pulse-height spectra by Dempsey et al. (1993b). They found that the lower temperature component was consistent with the full sample of RS CVn binaries studied but that the hot component was slightly lower than the sample as a whole. Moderate Ca II H and K emission, filled in H alpha and radio emission are also consistent with this being a fairly active, short period binary system.

Dempsey, Robert C.↗

Analysis of discretization errors in LES

All numerical simulations of turbulence (DNS or LES) involve some discretization errors. The integrity of such simulations therefore depend on our ability to quantify and control such errors. In the classical literature on analysis of errors in partial differential equations, one typically studies simple linear equations (such as the wave equation or Laplace's equation). The qualitative insight gained from studying such simple situations is then used to design numerical methods for more complex problems such as the Navier-Stokes equations. Though such an approach may seem reasonable as a first approximation, it should be recognized that strongly nonlinear problems, such as turbulence, have a feature that is absent in linear problems. This feature is the simultaneous presence of a continuum of space and time scales. Thus, in an analysis of errors in the one dimensional wave equation, one may, without loss of generality, rescale the equations so that the dependent variable is always of order unity. This is not possible in the turbulence problem since the amplitudes of the Fourier modes of the velocity field have a continuous distribution. The objective of the present research is to provide some quantitative measures of numerical errors in such situations. Though the focus of this work is LES, the methods introduced here can be just as easily applied to DNS. Errors due to discretization of the time-variable are neglected for the purpose of this analysis.

Ghosal, Sandip↗

Implementing Superresolution of Nonstationary Tides with Wavelets: An Introduction to CWT_Multi

Abstract Tides are often nonstationary due to nonastronomical influences. Investigating variable tidal properties implies a trade-off between separating adjacent frequencies (using long analysis windows) and resolving their time variations (short analysis windows). Previous continuous wavelet transform (CWT) tidal methods resolved tidal species. Here, we present CWT_Multi, a MATLAB code that 1) uses CWT linearity (via the “response coefficient method”) to implement superresolution, i.e., resolving tidal constituents beyond the Rayleigh criterion; 2) provides a Munk–Hasselmann constituent selection criterion appropriate for superresolution; and 3) introduces an objective, time-variable form of inference (“dynamic inference”) based on time-varying data properties. CWT_Multi resolves tidal species on time scales of days, and multiple constituents per species with fortnightly filters. It outputs astronomical phase lags and admittances, analyzes multiple records, and provides power spectra of the signal(s), residual(s), and reconstruction(s); confidence limits; and signal-to-noise ratios. Artificial data and water levels from the Lower Columbia River Estuary (LCRE) and San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) are used to test CWT_Multi and compare it to harmonic analysis programs NS_Tide and UTide. CWT_Multi provides superior reconstruction, detiding, dynamic analysis utility, and time resolution of constituents (but with broader confidence limits). Dynamic inference resolves closely spaced constituents (like K 1 , S 1 , and P 1 ) on fortnightly time scales, quantifying impacts of diel power peaking (with a 24-h period, like S 1 ) on water levels in the LCRE. CWT_Multi also helps quantify the impacts of high flows and a salt barrier closing on tidal properties in the SFBD. On the other hand, CWT_Multi does not excel at prediction, and results depend on analysis details, as for any method applied to nonstationary data. Significance Statement Ocean tides, especially in coastal and estuarine systems, are often nonstationary, in the sense that the mean and standard deviation of tidal properties vary over time, usually in response to some nontidal process. We introduce here a MATLAB code, CWT_Multi, that uses wavelet transforms to resolve both tidal species and constituents on time scales from a few days to months. Our code accommodates multiple scalar time series and has typical tidal analysis features like constituent selection and inference, plus two forms of uncertainty analyses. It is flexible, allowing the user to adapt analysis properties to diverse datasets. CWT_Multi is applicable to many problems involving time-variable tides, including sea level rise, compound flooding, sediment transport, and wetland habitat analyses. Application to vector data is a straightforward extension, but further development of our uncertainty analysis is merited. Because nonstationary tidal analysis is rapidly advancing, we also define the features of a “well-formed” analysis code.

Lobo, Matthew↗

Effects of Natural Variability on the Use of Standard Deviation to Represent Measurement Uncertainties in Atmospheric Composition Studies

Measurement uncertainty is defined as a “non-negative parameter characterizing the dispersion of the quantity values being attributed to a measurand”. It is most common that the uncertainties of GAW hourly measurements, such as greenhouse gas measurements, are reported as standard deviations derived from individual sampling at a higher time resolution (e.g., 1 min). In contrast, the uncertainties of GAW measurements of reactive gases and aerosol properties are reported in percentiles covering the same probability. A quick look at hourly CO 2 data from Cape Grim, Australia yielded some interesting findings: the hourly standard deviation is, on average, more than a factor of 10 higher for the measurements under non-background conditions (over 50% observations), while the difference in average CO 2 amount fraction was less than 2 ppm. The dramatic contrast cannot be explained by the difference in measurement uncertainties, but can largely be attributed the natural variability, or episodic ambient CO 2 variation reflecting changes in meteorological conditions or emissions. These initial findings motivated a more in-depth analysis of the ground-based measurements of trace gases and aerosol properties. This analysis will be using continuous 1 min ground site observations to construct time averaged statistical indicators to evaluate whether the standard deviation is adequate to represent the dispersion, especially under marked influence by natural variability. The suitability of this representation can be determined by examining the difference between the standard deviation and percentiles encompassing the same probability. We will examine time intervals of 1 hour, 3 hours, and 24 hours, with the latter time intervals chosen to match those commonly used in model assessments. We will also investigate how natural variability can alter the probability distribution of the measurands and how adequate the quadrature propagation of uncertainties is under these conditions. The results will include several trace gases (e.g., CO 2 , CO, O 3 , and NO 2 ) with a range of measurement techniques (e.g., PANDORA, in situ), atmospheric lifetimes, and aerosol properties (e.g. scattering coefficient). The findings from this analysis should provide some useful feedback on the best practices for uncertainty reporting.

Measurement Uncertainty↗

New measurements of circular polarization and an ephemeris for the variable white dwarf G195-19.

Observations of the white dwarf G195-19 made for over a year show that the periodic variation in circular polarization continues with constant frequency and amplitude; an accurate value of 1.3309 plus or minus 0.0004 days is obtained for the period. While the variation in blue-green light is sinusoidal, extensive measurements in red light show an asymmetric curve, reaching a minimum about 6 hours earlier than in the blue-green.

Angel, J. R. P.↗

Global teleconnections influencing large-scale drought in the United States using SVDI

Understanding recent large-scale drought patterns and the mechanisms producing extreme drought events is vital for future drought forecasts and understanding future drought risks. Increasingly, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been used as an important measure of evaporative demand and proxy for drought detection. In this study, VPD is used to calculate the new Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI) with NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data. Previous studies have shown that SVDI accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts in the United States (U.S). In the present study, SVDI is now used to identify large-scale drought patterns between 1980 and 2021 and drought variability driven by selected global teleconnections originating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Spatial drought characteristics were extracted from SVDI using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Then a k-means clustering algorithm was applied to both EOF principal components and primary teleconnections, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to identify drought events driven by the Pacific Ocean. Results show that the SVDI is useful in evaluating large-scale drought variability in the U.S. related to global teleconnections, and that mechanisms influencing summer drought patterns in the Western and Southwestern U.S. are driven by a tropical-extratropical interactions originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean related to ENSO dynamics with interdecadal variability modulated by PDO. The large-scale droughts in the Central and Southern U.S., like those in 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, are driven by the North Pacific Ocean warm pool during a strong negative PDO, which subsequently influenced variability in the Bermuda-Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean. In summer 2011, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened, reducing the onshore winds and moisture transport along the eastern Gulf of Mexico and contributing to ongoing drought in the region. The Northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased between 1980 and 2021. In conclusion, as SSTs continue to rise in the Northern Pacific Ocean, one consequence of the coupled North Pacific warm pool and atmospheric dynamics, is to increase summer drought variability over a large region in the southern and midwestern U.S. under global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physical discovery in representation learning via conditioning on prior knowledge

Recent advances in electron, scanning probe, optical, and chemical imaging and spectroscopy yield bespoke data sets containing the information of structure and functionality of complex systems. In many cases, the resulting data sets are underpinned by low-dimensional simple representations encoding the factors of variability within the data. The representation learning methods seek to discover these factors of variability, ideally further connecting them with relevant physical mechanisms. However, generally, the task of identifying the latent variables corresponding to actual physical mechanisms is extremely complex. Here, we present an empirical study of an approach based on conditioning the data on the known (continuous) physical parameters and systematically compare it with the previously introduced approach based on the invariant variational autoencoders. The conditional variational autoencoder (cVAE) approach does not rely on the existence of the invariant transforms and hence allows for much greater flexibility and applicability. Interestingly, cVAE allows for limited extrapolation outside of the original domain of the conditional variable. However, this extrapolation is limited compared to the cases when true physical mechanisms are known, and the physical factor of variability can be disentangled in full. We further show that introducing the known conditioning results in the simplification of the latent distribution if the conditioning vector is correlated with the factor of variability in the data, thus allowing us to separate relevant physical factors. We initially demonstrate this approach using 1D and 2D examples on a synthetic data set and then extend it to the analysis of experimental data on ferroelectric domain dynamics visualized via piezoresponse force microscopy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Interannual variability and climatic noise in satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation

Upwelling-IR observations of the North Pacific by polar orbiters NOAA 3, 4, 5, and 6 and TIROS-N from 1974 to 1981 are analyzed statistically in terms of interannual variability (IAV) in monthly averages and climatic noise due to short-term weather fluctuations. It is found that although the daily variance in the observations is the same in summer and winter months, and although IAV in winter is smaller than that in summer, the climatic noise in winter is so much smaller that a greater fraction of winter anomalies are statistically significant. The smaller winter climatic noise level is shown to be due to shorter autocorrelation times. It is demonstrated that increasing averaging area does not reduce the climatic noise level, suggesting that continuing collection of high-resolution satellite IR data on a global basis is necessary if better models of short-term variability are to be constructed.

Short, D. A.↗