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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Cyberattack Detection and Mitigation on Central Volt‐VAr Using Circuit Law and Machine Learning

ABSTRACT In a distribution grid, voltage is maintained within a nominal range through a Volt‐VAr function that controls capacitor banks, reactive power of distributed energy resources (DER), and on‐load tap changers (OLTC). Availability of communications helps with the implementation of central Volt‐VAr control; however, it also opens the system to cyberattacks, causing voltage disturbances. Previous work has shown the adverse impacts of false data injection (FDI) on the central Volt‐VAr control; however, very few works have studied methods to detect and mitigate FDI on Volt‐VAr control. This paper addresses gaps in the detection and mitigation of FDI on the measurement packets of a central Volt‐VAr control. This work uses a two‐stage algorithm for cyberattack detection since the accuracy of a single‐stage machine learning (ML)–based detection method decreases while dealing with unseen data. The first stage is based on the verification of measurements against circuit laws, and the second stage utilizes a tree search algorithm and an ML method to detect the falsified data. This paper compares long short‐term memory (LSTM) and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) as the employed ML algorithms. Finally, the mitigation algorithm replaces the falsified data with the estimated output of the ML algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested for several cases using the IEEE 13‐bus test system in PSCAD software.

Beikbabaei, Milad [Bradley Department of Electrica↗
DOE OSTI2026

Economic NMPC for a Reversible Solid Oxide Cell

Reversible solid oxide fuel cells (rSOCs) offer the flexibility to operate in tandem with the electric grid by switching between fuel cell and electrolysis modes based on real-time electricity prices. However, their complex, tightly coupled dynamic behavior poses significant challenges in determining optimal operating strategies. In this work, we present an economic nonlinear model predictive control (E-NMPC) framework to optimize the operation of rSOCs. The proposed E-NMPC is applied to a detailed rSOC flowsheet model that includes a utility scale rSOC module as well as balance-of-plant equipment necessary for thermal management. Our results demonstrate that in fuel cell mode, the E-NMPC strategy reduces hydrogen consumption compared to conventional set-point tracking NMPC, while maintaining the same level of electricity output. Also, in electrolysis mode, the E-NMPC yields a marginal improvement in hydrogen production. In addition, we explore the integration of a battery with the rSOC system to enhance flexibility in meeting electricity production and consumption targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project

The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Blockchain Research and Development Activities Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy and Utility Sector

This article provides an in-depth analysis of blockchain research in the energy sector, focusing on projects funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and comparing them with industry-funded initiatives. A total of 110 funded activities within the U.S. power industry were successfully tracked and mapped into a newly developed categorization framework. This framework is designed to help research agencies to systematically understand their funded portfolio. Such characterization is expected to help them make effective investments, identify research gaps, measure impact, and advance technological progress to meet national goals. In line with this need, the proposed framework proposes a 2-D categorization matrix to systematically classify blockchain efforts within the energy sector.Under the proposed framework, the Energy System Domain serves as the primary classification dimension, categorizing use cases into 30 distinct applications. The second dimension, Blockchain Properties, captures the specific needs and functionalities provided by Blockchain technology. The aim was to capture blockchain’s applicability and functionality: where and why blockchain? Principles behind the selection of the viewpoint dimensions were carefully defined based on consensus obtained through the Blockchain for Optimized Security and Energy Management (BLOSEM) project. The mapped results show that activities within the Grid Automation, Coordination, and Control (31.8%), Marketplaces and Trading (25.5%), Foundational Blockchain Research (19.1%), and Supply Chain Management (17.3%) domains have been actively pursued to date. The three leading specific use case applications were identified as Transactive Energy Management for Marketplaces and Trading, Asset Management for Supply Chain Management, and Fundamental Blockchain for Foundational Blockchain Research. The Marketplaces and Trading and Retail Services Enablement domains stood out as being favored by industry by a factor greater than 2 (2.3 and 2.6, respectively), yet there seemed to be little to zero investment from DOE. Approximately 76% of the total projects prioritized Immutability, Identity Management, and Decentralization and/or Disintermediation compared to Asset Digitization and/or Tokenization, Automation, and Privacy and/or Anonymity. The greatest discrepancies between DOE and industry were in Asset Digitization and/or Tokenization and Automation. The industry efforts (36% in Asset Digitization/Tokenization and 22% in Automation) was 14 times and 2.4 times, respectively, more intensive than the DOE-sponsored efforts, indicating a significant discrepancy in industry versus government priorities. Overall, quantifying DOE-sponsored projects and industry activities through mapping provides clarity on portfolio investments and opportunities for future research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

CHESS 2025: Leaf Area Index (LAI) for meadow, shrub, tree, and understory vegetation

This dataset contains Leaf Area Index (LAI) measurements made as part of the Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) during June and July of 2025. Data were collected in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, across three study domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). Field observations of LAI were collected within 72 hours of airborne data collection by the National Ecological Observatory Network’s Aerial Observation Platform (NEON AOP). The NEON AOP collected waveform LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) and imaging spectrometer data in 426 spectral bands from the visible to shortwave infrared. LAI measurements were collected using the LICOR LAI-2200C Plant Canopy Analyzer following protocols outlined in the instrument manual (LI-COR 2019). Sampling targeted four distinct vegetation types: meadows, shrubs, trees, and aspen forest understory. We have archived data separately by site type because different field methods were used for each. At meadow sites, measurements were made at the four corners of 1m x 1m plots, with the instrument moving inward toward the center of the plot. At shrub sites, we measured the canopies of individual shrubs. At tree sites, we made measurements within a 10m x 10m subplot centered around a focal tree, with 30 observations taken on a regular grid. At aspen understory sites, we measured overstory trees following the tree protocol and understory herbaceous vegetation following the meadow protocol. All measurements included above-canopy (A) and below-canopy (B) readings, with specific protocols for scattering correction measurements in direct-sun conditions. Data were processed using the R package `rlai` (Worsham 2025). This package includes functions to calculate LAI, gap fraction, apparent clumping factor (Ω), scattering correction, and other canopy metrics. Package contents: Full file descriptions appear in ‘flmd.csv’. Files named according to the convention ‘lai_*_summary_data_cleaned.csv’ contain summary values of LAI, apparent clumping factor (Ωapp), and scattering correction factors for each site. These are the analysis-ready products that most data users will work with. Files named ‘lai_*_metadata_cleaned.csv’ contain additional site-level observations made during field collection. We have also archived intermediate and supplementary data for users who wish to check our processing approach or apply alternative methods. ‘raw_lai_2200C.zip’ contains the raw files as read from the LI-COR instrument, with no processing applied, in TXT format. The zip archive contains subdirectories by site type, which are further subdivided by sampling area. Filenames correspond to the sampling site number. ‘intermediate_results.zip’ contains detailed output from the processing routines, in JSON format. The zip archive contains subdirectories by site type; filenames correspond to the sampling site number. ‘scattering_correction_logs.zip’ contains logfiles from the implementation of Kobayashi et al.'s (2013) scattering correction algorithm. The logfiles report values of several parameters at each iteration of the algorithm, as the model converges toward a stable solution. They are intended for users who want to verify scattering correction performance. The zip archive contains subdirectories by site type; filenames correspond to the sampling site number. ‘spot_checks.csv’ reports LAI and other values for a small number of files processed with LI-COR FV2200 software (LI-COR 2013) using the same control parameters as in our R-based approach. Additional metadata are provided in a data dictionary describing column names and definitions (dd.csv), and in a file-level metadata file (flmd.csv). All zip files can be expanded with common archive utilities. TXT, CSV, and JSON files can be ingested into R or Python computing environments or read in common text editor utilities. Geospatial information: Geospatial data for mapping measurement site locations are in the files CHESS_polygons_lai_UTM.geojson, CHESS_polygons_shrub_UTM.geojson, and CHESS_polygons_meadow_UTM.geojson in the companion geospatial package for the 2025 CHESS campaign, ‘CHESS 2025: Location data for field observations and sampling’ (Henderson et al., 2026). CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. Funding Acknowledgement: Field and remote-sensing data acquisition was performed under a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC24K1005). This work was also supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. * Todorov and Worsham are co–first authors.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗
DOE OSTI2024

Powering Data Centers with Clean Energy: A Techno-Economic Case Study of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Dependability

Rising data demands from artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) generating images, videos, and text have prompted increased need for larger and more robust data centers in the United States. Major companies interested in these larger data centers face the choice of linking them to existing regional grids, building stand-alone power supplies onsite, or a combination of both. The request, review, and approval process for new transmission lines to grids in the United States, however, has grown in recent years to times spans rivaling those of new construction for nuclear power plants. Building an islanded power supply for each data center is therefore becoming a prominent option. In this case study, several technologies are modeled in techno-economic simulations for long-term system costs subject to fixed electricity demand from a singular data center. A 250 MWe data center is assumed with additional 50 MWe for resiliency. Techno-economic simulations are conducted using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) software, which is a part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. Technologies considered include solar, wind, lithium-ion batteries, and several types of nuclear reactors: large-scale reactors, small modular reactors, and microreactors. A low- and high-cost estimate for each technology is assumed to develop a range of expected economic performance. Low-cost estimates included several clean energy production tax credits. Different combinations of renewable energy generators with nuclear reactors are considered, ranging from a fully renewable-powered data center to a fully nuclear-powered data center. Historic time series of wind and solar availability from the Texas grid are used to train a reduced order model; this model then generates unique time series with similar characteristics of the training dataset. Multiple scenarios of weather and subsequent operations are simulated for each renewable-nuclear combination to determine total costs throughout the project lifetime. Fully renewable-powered configurations required large amounts of installed capacity (GW scale) in the simulations to meet the fixed demand of the data center. This is due to some scenarios in the historical dataset which captured low-wind and low-solar days, requiring over-building of these technologies as well as batteries to compensate for the low amounts of electricity generation. Fully nuclear-powered configurations outperformed the fully renewable and mixed renewable-nuclear configurations in terms of cost, with ranges between $1B and $10B in 2023 USDs compared to $40B+ for fully renewable configurations. Of the nuclear technologies, small modular reactors performed better economically than large-scale nuclear models due to lower projected capital costs, and both performed better than the microreactor models. These results demonstrate the applicability of firm, dispatchable electricity resources from baseload generators like nuclear power plants for operating facilities that run at constant power without daily variability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the effectiveness of neural operators at zero-shot weather downscaling

Machine-learning (ML) methods have shown great potential for weather downscaling. These data-driven approaches provide a more efficient alternative for producing high-resolution weather datasets and forecasts compared to physics-based numerical simulations. Neural operators, which learn solution operators for a family of partial differential equations, have shown great success in scientific ML applications involving physics-driven datasets. Neural operators are grid-resolution-invariant and are often evaluated on higher grid resolutions than they are trained on, i.e., zero-shot super-resolution. Given their promising zero-shot super-resolution performance on dynamical systems emulation, we present a critical investigation of their zero-shot weather downscaling capabilities, which is when models are tasked with producing high-resolution outputs using higher upsampling factors than are seen during training. To this end, we create two realistic downscaling experiments with challenging upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) across data from different simulations: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. While neural operator-based downscaling models perform better than interpolation and a simple convolutional baseline, we show the surprising performance of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with parameter-free interpolation at zero-shot weather downscaling. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms models with neural operator layers in terms of average error metrics, whereas an Enhanced Super-Resolution Generative Adversarial Network-based approach is better than most models in terms of capturing the physics of the ground truth data. We suggest their use in future work as strong baselines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deploying Adversarial Attacks in Super-Resolution Models

Reliable super-resolution methods are crucial for applications like remote sensing, grid resilience and disaster impact analysis, and standoff biometrics. These methods infuse additional high-frequency information into reconstructions, allowing for better contextualization and image intelligence. However, super-resolution models can also introduce hallucinations or other unseen vulnerabilities that could be exploited by an adversary. This is further compounded by the prominence of deep learning in these models, as models are often blindly applied on out-of-distribution images. In this work, we implement adversarial attacks in common open-source super-resolution models and examine their impact on reconstructions and downstream classification tasks. We find that an adversarially trained super-resolution model can produce high-quality reconstructions that degrade downstream classifications. Moreover, these attacks do not require access to low-resolution imagery or class labels at inference time. These results demonstrate the vulnerability of super-resolution methods to malicious actors and motivates the development of a detector for super-resolution adversarial attacks. Further exploration of adversarial attacks in this domain is required to ensure trustworthiness and robustness of super-resolution models for national security applications.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

A discontinuous piecewise polynomial generalized moving least squares scheme for robust finite element analysis on arbitrary grids

A variational approach is developed with a meshless discretization to enable accurate and robust numerical simulation of partial differential equations for meshes that are of poor quality. Traditional finite element methods use the mesh to both discretize the geometric domain and to define the finite element shape functions. The latter creates a dependence between the quality of the mesh and the properties of the finite element basis that may adversely affect the accuracy of the discretized problem. Here, we propose a new approach for defining finite element shape functions that breaks this dependence and separates mesh quality from the discretization quality, which we call discontinuous piecewise polynomial generalized moving least squares (DPP-GMLS). At the core of the approach is a meshless definition of the shape functions, which limits the purpose of the mesh to representing the geometric domain and integrating the basis functions without having any role in their approximation quality. The resulting non-conforming space can be utilized within a standard discontinuous Galerkin framework, providing a rigorous foundation for solving partial differential equations on low-quality meshes. We present a collection of numerical experiments demonstrating our approach in a wide range of settings: strongly coercive elliptic problems, linear elasticity in the compressible regime, and the stationary Stokes problem. We demonstrate convergence for all problems and stability for element pairs for problems which usually require inf-sup compatibility for conforming methods, also referring to a minor modification possible through the symmetric interior penalty Galerkin framework for stabilizing element pairs that would otherwise be traditionally unstable. Mesh robustness is particularly critical for elasticity, and we provide an example that our approach provides a greater than 5 x improvement in accuracy and allows for taking an 8 x larger stable timestep for a highly deformed mesh, compared to the continuous Galerkin finite element method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

GridCoPilot for Thermal Events: An LLM-Based Platform for Power Grid Reliability Analysis

Large Language Models show promise for translating natural language into database queries, but deploying such systems in safety-critical domains requires high reliability. We present an application of GridCoPilot to thermal event analysis (heatwaves and coldwaves) that affect power grid reliability. Our approach uses a LangChain SQL Agent to translate natural language queries into auditable SQL statements, with deterministic visualization routines that parse the structured query results. We introduce structural framing as a design principle, we integrate a NERC-region-level event library with county-level meteorology and decompose the combined data into three relational tables (event metadata, county-level event details, and a county-to-NERC subregion mapping), using prompt-guided joins to direct the model toward correct multi-table queries. For two core analytical patterns (identifying worst events by region and by region-year), the system achieved 100% SQL accuracy across all 16 NERC subregions and both event types (64 queries total). These results validate the approach for target use cases, though performance on diverse natural language formulations requires further investigation. We discuss design trade-offs, failure modes including JSON output truncation, and pathways for extending this approach to other hazard domains.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Impact of a Forest Canopy on Near-Surface Wind Statistics

Representing the forest canopy in atmospheric numerical models should improve simulated winds within and above the canopy up to a few hundred meters above the ground. Here, in this study, we implement a forest canopy parameterization into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in a large-eddy simulation (LES) mode by applying drag forces across multiple layers within the canopy height. We use unique observations from the Lidar Experiments for Assessing Flow over Forests (LEAFF) field campaign at the Wind River Experimental Forest (WREF) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest to evaluate model performance. In a 2-day case study, the canopy parameterization improved wind predictions both within and above the canopy, particularly during the daytime and at finer grid resolution. Without it, winds were frequently overpredicted above the canopy. Similarly, derived quantities such as the wind shear index also yielded estimates closer to observations with the canopy parameterization implemented. These findings suggest that representing the canopy using drag forces alone can improve simulated mean winds up to 200 m above the surface. Furthermore, second-order statistical moments of wind were more sensitive to canopy density than first-order moments, especially during the daytime. This increased sensitivity and the improved daytime performance in wind speed—evidenced by the lowest bias from observations (3% compared to 20% over diurnal cycle)—imply that winds above the canopy layer are strongly influenced by how well turbulence above the canopy is modeled. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for parameterizing forest canopy effects in coarser weather forecast models.

Energy - Wind↗
DOE OSTI2025

VA Determinants of Health Data Curation Documentation FY25-Q2

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) places the health and well-being of our nation’s veterans as its top priority. VA is dedicated to offering timely access to high-quality, evidence-based mental health care that meets the needs of veterans and supports their reintegration into society. One of our core missions is to prevent suicide among veterans through innovative approaches and resources. With funding from the VA Office of Mental Health and Suicide Prevention (OMHSP), the Determinants of Health (EDH) project has developed innovative datasets associated with specific health outcomes, a methodology for transforming spatiotemporal data from one spatial reference (e.g., a 1km grid) to another (e.g., US Census Tracts), and capabilities for modeling health outcomes. These datasets represent an enhancement of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), addressing key gaps by introducing finer spatial resolution (Census Tract) and additional geographical covariates into existing data. The curation and standardization of these datasets is a complex task since they often originate from various sources and are measured at different spatial and temporal resolutions. For example, US Census data products typically use census blocks, block groups, or counties, while data like weather data are available on 1km grids. Some economic data may only be available at the zip code level. In this context, ‘standardized’ means that all datasets share the same spatial extent (e.g., US Census Tract and/or County), and ‘curated’ implies a repeatable process with data provenance and the use of appropriate methodologies for covariate conversion. The Determinants of Health datasets draw from multiple sources, resulting in variables with varying degrees of availability, patterns of missing data, and methodological considerations across different sources, geographies, and years.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regression Analysis with the Directed Infusion of Data

Integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning tools into industry necessitates large-scale collaborative efforts that ensure the robust and accurate execution of downstream analytics such as time series prediction, uncertainty quantification, grid optimization, and condition monitoring. However, concerns related to data privacy pervade the nuclear industry due to the proprietary nature of its data and the possibility of data leakage. Legacy techniques such as encryption often require the explicit transmission of data to trustworthy parties, thereby inviting data leakage concerns. The ideal collaboration scenario avoids the explicit dissemination of data/code while maintaining experimental fidelity, which is currently accomplished using various techniques such as trusted execution environments, homomorphic encryption, differential privacy, and multimatrix masking. These techniques, however, often necessitate a trade-off between trust, efficiency, and utility. This article extends a previously proposed technique called the directed infusion of data (DIOD) that ensures data privacy, allows for scalable obfuscation, and combats the risk of data leakage without compromising utility. The experiments discussed in this article examine a regression-type scenario using DIOD with the goal of preserving the inferential link between two variables. Using the point-kinetics equations, regression experiments compare the performance of a model trained using the original data to that of a model trained using the obfuscated data, which produced identical results. Our claim is further strengthened by an information theoretic proof and experiment, which showed that the inferential content between variables remains the same after obfuscation, thereby avoiding the required communication of the proprietary data.

47 - OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards provision of regularly updated climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a flagship of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). CMIP has become a recognised ‘brand’ in climate circles evolving over the last thirty years from a targeted research activity by a small number of climate modelling centres intercomparing their Earth System Model (ESM) simulations to a broad international coordinated research effort (Durack et al, 2025). CMIP is organized as a research activity leveraging funded and in-kind contributions from experts within modelling centres and the broader scientific community supported more recently by a fully-funded International Project Office. Within CMIP, Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are community-designed to understand past, present and future climate. CMIP data provides a valuable resource for climate research and is routinely used to assess model representation of climate processes and test scientific hypotheses in the context of model uncertainty and (forced and internal) variability as evident from its prolific use in scientific publications1 . The impact relies on enabling infrastructure (most prominently via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)), which allows sharing of simulation output, provision of the boundary conditions used in each simulation, and definition of the data standards that are essential to facilitating wide use of the data. The impact is supplemented by the wide-ranging scrutiny to which model simulations are subjected. Beyond its use in research, CMIP data is a key resource for communities producing derived climate information from downscaling and impact studies, such as the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; Gutowski et al., 2016) and the Intersectoral Impacts MIP (ISIMIP; Frieler et al., 2024). Government, academic and commercial entities also increasingly rely on CMIP and its downstream data for climate risk assessments and climate services (for example, Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Bank portal). This means that, although CMIP is a research activity, it increasingly serves a secondary and very relevant role as a provider of climate data – a long-recognised dichotomy (Stevens, 2024). Research and applications have distinct needs, with the former requiring flexibility and generality and the latter consistency. Here we explain how the design of the research activity has been adapted to reduce the burdens imposed by applications and how the research infrastructure might evolve to further enable scientific inquiry. We propose one possible approach to consistently providing model information and projections for applications in the future.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurement Adequacy for Monitoring Data Center Oscillations

Artificial intelligence (AI) training data centers with periodic load profiles can induce sustained grid oscillations across a wide frequency range, making accurate monitoring essential for reliable power system operation. This report evaluates the adequacy of existing measurement systems for monitoring such oscillations, focusing on phasor measurement units (PMUs) and point-on-wave (POW) measurement systems. The analysis shows that while PMUs are highly effective for monitoring low-frequency electromechanical oscillations, they have inherent limitations in accurately representing higher-frequency oscillations due to constraints imposed by reporting rates and the bandwidth of phasor estimation filters. Even when configured with higher reporting rates, the filtering inherent in the phasor estimation process can significantly attenuate oscillation magnitudes, potentially leading to underestimation of oscillatory behavior. This has important implications for compliance and performance monitoring of large loads. To address the limitations associated with PMU-based monitoring, the report examines the use of high-resolution POW measurements, which can capture oscillations across a broader frequency range. However, continuous POW monitoring introduces practical challenges related to large data volumes, communication bandwidth, and real-time data processing. For this reason, the report also discusses emerging approaches that use POW measurements as a complementary capability alongside PMUs to improve observability of oscillations from large data center loads.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

VA Community Determinants of Health Data Curation Documentation FY25-Q4

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) places the health and well-being of our nation’s veterans as its top priority. VA is dedicated to offering timely access to high-quality, evidence-based mental health care that meets the needs of veterans and supports their reintegration into society. One of our core missions is to prevent suicide among veterans through innovative approaches and resources. With funding from the VA Office of Mental Health and Suicide Prevention (OMHSP), the Determinants of Health (EDH) project has developed innovative datasets associated with specific health outcomes, a methodology for transforming spatiotemporal data from one spatial reference (e.g., a 1km grid) to another (e.g., US Census Tracts), and capabilities for modeling health outcomes. These datasets represent an enhancement of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), addressing key gaps by introducing finer spatial resolution (Census Tract) and additional geographical covariates into existing data. The curation and standardization of these datasets is a complex task since they often originate from various sources and are measured at different spatial and temporal resolutions. For example, US Census data products typically use census blocks, block groups, or counties, while data like weather data are available on 1km grids. Some economic data may only be available at the zip code level. In this context, standardized’ means that all datasets share the same spatial extent (e.g., US Census Tract and/or County), and ‘curated’ implies a repeatable process with data provenance and the use of appropriate methodologies for covariate conversion. The Determinants of Health datasets draw from multiple sources, resulting in variables with varying degrees of availability, patterns of missing data, and methodological considerations across different sources, geographies, and years.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

CyberMESA: Evaluation Procedures and Metrics for Charging Infrastructure Cybersecurity

A report detailing the cybersecurity evaluation and assessment procedures for EV charging infrastructure. This report is authored by three national lab contributors. INL, PNNL, NRL. The grid integration of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (EVCI) is a large and complex system of systems (SoS) made up of components from many manufacturers and integrated by various companies responsible for their operation and maintenance. This complexity makes it challenging to implement security standards like IEC 62443 across the entire infrastructure. This document aims to aid in the vulnerability assessments of individual devices, such as Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE), to support vendors in adopting and implementing security standards such as UL 2900, NIST SP 800-53 and Common Criteria (CC) (ISO/IEC 15408). This document serves as a guide to help evaluate the cybersecurity posture of EVCI assets. It aims to provide a consistent method for evaluating EVCI, enabling cybersecurity research teams to systematically test a wide range of electric vehicle (EV) assets. The target audiences include cybersecurity research teams, vendor development teams, automotive OEMs, and third-party evaluators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗