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At least 685 records · Page 38

Time trend analysis of rare cancer incidence 2011–2018: Nationwide population-based cancer registries in Japan

Rare cancers collectively account for a significant proportion of the overall cancer burden in Japan. We aimed to describe and examine the incidence of each rare cancer and the temporal changes using the internationally agreed rare cancer classification. Cancer cases registered in regional population-based cancer registries from 2011 to 2015 and the National Cancer Registry (NCR) from 2016 to 2018 were classified into 18 families, 68 Tier-1 cancer groupings, and 216 single cancer entities based on the RARECAREnet list. Crude incidence rates and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were calculated for Tier-1 and Tier-2 cancers. The annual percent change and the 95% and 99% confidence limits for annual ASR for each of the 68 Tier-1 cancers were estimated using the log-linear regression of the weighted least squares method. The differences in ASRs between 2011 and 2018 were evaluated as an absolute change. A total of 5,640,879 cases were classified into Tier-1 and Tier-2 cancers. The ASRs of 18 out of 52 Tier-1 cancers in the rare cancer families increased, whereas the ASR for epithelial tumors of gallbladder decreased. The ASRs of 6 out of the 16 Tier-1 cancers in the common cancer families increased, whereas those of epithelial tumors of stomach and liver decreased. There was no significant change in the incidence of the other 40 Tier-1 cancers. The incidence of several cancers increased due to the dissemination of diagnostic concepts, improved diagnostic techniques, changes in coding practice, and the initiation of the NCR.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization Approach Using the Weighted Tchebycheff Method

Abstract Bayesian optimization (BO) is a low-cost global optimization tool for expensive black-box objective functions, where we learn from prior evaluated designs, update a posterior surrogate Gaussian process model, and select new designs for future evaluation using an acquisition function. This research focuses upon developing a BO model with multiple black-box objective functions. In the standard multi-objective (MO) optimization problem, the weighted Tchebycheff method is efficiently used to find both convex and non-convex Pareto frontiers. This approach requires knowledge of utopia values before we start optimization. However, in the BO framework, since the functions are expensive to evaluate, it is very expensive to obtain the utopia values as a prior knowledge. Therefore, in this paper, we develop a MO-BO framework where we calibrate with multiple linear regression (MLR) models to estimate the utopia value for each objective as a function of design input variables; the models are updated iteratively with sampled training data from the proposed MO-BO. These iteratively estimated mean utopia values are used to formulate the weighted Tchebycheff MO acquisition function. The proposed approach is implemented in two numerical test examples and one engineering design problem of optimizing thin tube geometries under constant loading of temperature and pressure, with minimizing the risk of creep-fatigue failure and design cost, along with risk-based and manufacturing constraints. Finally, the model accuracy with frequentist, Bayesian and without MLR-based calibration are compared to true Pareto solutions.

Engineering↗

Detecting Short Circuits: Post Accident Electric Vehicle Battery Safety Check

Fast and accurate detection of soft short circuits (SCs) in the battery packs of damaged electric vehicles is needed by first responders and mechanics to mitigate the potential risk from battery fires that may occur hours, days, or weeks after an accident. Here, this paper presents an SC-detection algorithm for potentially damaged lithium-ion batteries that works quickly and without a priori knowledge of the battery-pack chemistry, capacity, state of charge, or state of health. The proposed universal SC-detection algorithm is designed to be implemented on an inexpensive handheld device that can connect to and monitor the voltages of all cells in a pack. Transient filtering and linear-quadratic state observation provide estimates of normalized SC current for every cell in the pack. Cells with SC-current estimates outside a sigma-based threshold are detected. Simulations, experiments, and electric vehicle (EV) crash data are used to verify the speed, sensitivity, and accuracy of the method, demonstrating 96% accurate detection of 0.0027 C SCs in under 1 h for 5S cell groups in the lab and no false positives for crashed Volkswagen, Chevrolet, and Tesla vehicles without SCs.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

Thermochimica

Thermochimica is a software library that determines a unique combination of phases and their compositions at thermochemical equilibrium. Thermochimica can be used for stand-alone calculations or it can be directly coupled to other codes. This release of the software does not have a graphical user interface (GUI) and it can be executed from the command line or from an Application Programming Interface (API). Also, it is not intended for thermodynamic model development or for constructing phase diagrams. The main purpose of the software is to be directly coupled with a multi-physics code to provide material properties and boundary conditions for various physical phenomena. Significant research efforts have been dedicated to enhance computational performance through advanced algorithm development, such as improved estimation techniques and non-linear solvers. Various useful parameters can be provided as output from Thermochimica, such as: determination of which phases are stable at equilibrium, the mass of solution species and phases at equilibrium, mole fractions of solution phase constituents, thermochemical activities (which are related to partial pressures for gaseous species), chemical potentials of solution species and phases, and integral Gibbs energy (referenced relative to standard state). The overall goal is to provide an open source computational tool to enhance the predictive capability of multi-physics codes without significantly impeding computational performance.

Simunovic, Srdjan↗

Association of chronic fatigue syndrome with premature telomere attrition

Background: Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), also known as myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME), is a severely debilitating condition of unknown etiology. The symptoms and risk factors of ME/CFS share features of accelerated aging implicated in several diseases. Using telomere length as a marker, this study was performed to test the hypothesis that ME/CFS is associated with accelerated aging. Methods: Participant (n = 639) data came from the follow-up time point of the Georgia CFS surveillance study. Using the 1994 CFS Research Case Definition with questionnaire-based subscale thresholds for fatigue, function, and symptoms, participants were classified into four illness groups: CFS if all criteria were met (n = 64), CFS-X if CFS with exclusionary conditions (n = 77), ISF (insufficient symptoms/fatigue) if only some criteria were met regardless of exclusionary conditions (n = 302), and NF (non-fatigued) if no criteria and no exclusionary conditions (n = 196). Relative telomere length (T/S ratio) was measured using DNA from whole blood and real-time PCR. General linear models were used to estimate the association of illness groups or T/S ratio with demographics, biological measures and covariates with significance set at p < 0.05. Results: The mean T/S ratio differed significantly by illness group (p = 0.0017); the T/S ratios in CFS (0.90 ± 0.03) and ISF (0.94 ± 0.02) were each significantly lower than in NF (1.06 ± 0.04). Differences in T/S ratio by illness groups remained significant after adjustment for covariates of age, sex, body mass index, waist–hip ratio, post-exertional malaise and education attainment. Telomere length was shorter by 635, 254 and 424 base pairs in CFS, CFS-X and ISF, respectively, compared to NF. This shorter telomere length translates to roughly 10.1–20.5, 4.0–8.2 and 6.6–13.7 years of additional aging in CFS, CFS-X and ISF compared to NF respectively. Further, stratified analyses based on age and sex demonstrated that the association of ME/CFS with short telomeres is largely moderated by female subjects < 45 years old. Conclusions: This study found a significant association of ME/CFS with premature telomere attrition that is largely moderated by female subjects < 45 years old. Our results indicate that ME/CFS could be included in the list of conditions associated with accelerated aging. Further work is needed to evaluate the functional significance of accelerated aging in ME/CFS.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Experimental development of low-frequency shear modulus and attenuation measurements in mated rock fractures: Shear mechanics due to asperity contact area changes with normal stress

Reservoir core measurements can help guide seismic monitoring of fluid-induced pressure variations in tight fractured reservoirs including those targeted for supercritical CO 2 injection. We present the first seismic-frequency ‘room-dry’ measurements of fracture specific shear stiffness, using artificially fractured standard granite samples with different degrees of mating, a well-mated tensile fracture from a dolomite reservoir core, as well as simple roughened polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) surfaces. We have adapted a low-frequency (0.01 to 100 Hz) shear modulus and attenuation apparatus to explore the seismic signature of fractures and understand the mechanics of asperity contacts under a range of normal stress conditions. Our instrument is unique in its ability to measure at low normal stresses (0.5 – 20 MPa), simulating 'open' fractures in shallow or high fluid pressure reservoirs. The accuracy of our instrument is demonstrated by calibration and comparison to ultrasonic measurements and low-frequency direct shear measurements of intact samples from the literature. Pressure sensitive film was used to measure real contact area of the fracture surfaces. The fractured shear modulus for the majority of the samples shows an exponential dependence on real contact area. A simple numerical model, with one bonded circular asperity, predicts this behavior and matches the data for the simple PMMA surfaces. The rock surfaces reach their intact moduli at lower contact area than the model predicts, likely due to more complex geometry. Lastly, we apply our results to a Linear-Slip Interface Model to estimate reflection coefficients and calculate shear wave time delays due to the lower wave velocities through the fractured zone. We find that cross-well surveys could detect even well-mated hard rock fractures assuming the availability of high repeatability acquisition systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry model for humans: Anatomical-morphological basis and parameter evaluation

Radiation exposure of the hematopoietic system that results in a radiation dose to bone marrow of more than 100 mGy leads to an increase in the risk of leukemia in humans. Excess relative risk of leukemia was observed in cohorts whose members lived in the territories of the Southern Urals that were radioactively contaminated in the 1950s. As part of the dosimetric support of epidemiological studies of these cohorts, an original methodology for stochastic bone dosimetric modeling was developed, termed the Stochastic Parametric Skeletal Dosimetry (SPSD) model. The purpose of this work was to present the anatomical and morphological bases of the SPSD model, which includes an assessment of the parameters of the microstructure of the trabecular bone in the hematopoietic areas of the human skeleton, as well as a description of the macrostructural division (segmentation) of hematopoietic areas into simple bone segments. As a result, an anatomical-morphological basis of the SPSD model was created based on published data. Data collection work included the analysis of original articles, atlases, manuals, monographs and the formation of primary data files. Data on the duration of hematopoiesis in various parts of the skeleton; and data on age-related changes in the microstructure and linear dimensions of human bones and their segments were analyzed. The paper describes the full set of parameters to be used for the dosimetric model for newborns, children aged 1, 5 and 10 years, as well as for adolescents aged 15 years and adults; for the latter, sex differences in bone size were considered. In total, the SPSD model includes 289 unique basic (bone) phantom segments, each of which is described by 7 or more parameters describing the microstructure, thickness of the cortical layer and linear dimensions. Population variability was estimated for each parameter. The approach to SPSD modeling, i.e., the use of simple geometric shapes, was successfully verified using independent datasets on bone masses and volumes.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

CCN activity and organic hygroscopicity of aerosols downwind of an urban region in central Amazonia: Seasonal and diel variations and impact of anthropogenic emissions

During the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) campaign, size-resolved cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectra were characterized at a research site (T3) 60km downwind of the city of Manaus, Brazil, in central Amazonia for one year (12 March 2014 to 3 March 2015). Particle hygroscopicity (κCCN) and mixing state were derived from the size-resolved CCN spectra, and the hygroscopicity of the organic component of the aerosol (κorg) was then calculated from κCCN and concurrent chemical composition measurements. The annual average κCCN increased from 0.13 at 75 nm to 0.17 at 171&thinsp;nm, and the increase was largely due to an increase in sulfate volume fraction. Also, during both wet and dry seasons, κCCN, κorg, and particle composition under background conditions exhibited essentially no diel variations. The constant κorg of ~0.15 is consistent with the largely uniform and high O:C value (~0.8), indicating that the aerosols under background conditions are dominated by the aged regional aerosol particles consisting of highly oxygenated organic compounds. For air masses strongly influenced by urban pollution and/or local biomass burning, lower values of κorg and organic O:C atomic ratio were observed during night, due to accumulation of freshly emitted particles, dominated by primary organic aerosol (POA) with low hygroscopicity, within a shallow nocturnal boundary layer. The O:C, κorg, and κCCN increased from the early morning hours and peaked around noon, driven by the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and dilution of POA emissions into a deeper boundary layer, while the development of the boundary layer, which leads to mixing with aged particles from the residual layer aloft, likely also contributed to the increases. The hygroscopicities associated with individual organic factors, derived from PMF analysis of AMS spectra, were estimated through multi-variable linear regression. For the SOA factors, the variation of the κ value with O:C agrees well with the linear relationship reported from earlier laboratory studies of SOA hygroscopicity. On the other hand, the variation in O:C of ambient aerosol organics is largely driven by the variation in the volume fractions of POA and SOA factors, which have very different O:C values. As POA factors have hygroscopicity values well below the linear relationship between SOA hygroscopicity and O:C, mixtures with different POA and SOA fractions exhibit a steeper slope for the increase of κorg with O:C, as observed during this and earlier field studies. Our finding helps better understand and reconcile the differences in the relationships between κorg and O:C observed in laboratory and field studies, therefore providing a basis for improved parameterization in global models, especially in a tropical context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Derivation of a matrix identity.

Matrix identity associated with linear digital filtering and recursive estimating determined using matrix projection operators and properties

Hemami, H.↗

A technique for constructing spectral reflectance curves from Viking lander camera multispectral data

A technique for evaluating the construction of spectral reflectance curves from multispectral data obtained with the Viking lander cameras is presented. The multispectral data is limited to 6 channels in the wave-length range 0.4 to 1.1 microns, and several of the channels suffer from appreciable out-of-band response. The technique represents the estimated reflectance curves as a linear combination of known basic functions with coefficients determined to minimize the error in the representation, and it permits all channels, with and without out-of-band response, to contribute equally valid information. The technique is evaluated for known spectral reflectance curves of 8 materials felt likely to be present on the Martian surface. The technique provides an essentially exact fit if the the reflectance curve has no pronounced maxima and minima. Even if the curve has pronounced maxima and minima, the fit is good and reveals the most dominant features. Since only 6 samples are available some short period features are lost. This loss is almost certainly due to undersampling rather than out-of-band channel response.

Park, S. K.↗

Meteorological adjustment of yearly mean values for air pollutant concentration comparison

Using multiple linear regression analysis, models which estimate mean concentrations of Total Suspended Particulate (TSP), sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide as a function of several meteorologic variables, two rough economic indicators, and a simple trend in time are studied. Meteorologic data were obtained and do not include inversion heights. The goodness of fit of the estimated models is partially reflected by the squared coefficient of multiple correlation which indicates that, at the various sampling stations, the models accounted for about 23 to 47 percent of the total variance of the observed TSP concentrations. If the resulting model equations are used in place of simple overall means of the observed concentrations, there is about a 20 percent improvement in either: (1) predicting mean concentrations for specified meteorological conditions; or (2) adjusting successive yearly averages to allow for comparisons devoid of meteorological effects. An application to source identification is presented using regression coefficients of wind velocity predictor variables.

Sidik, S. M.↗

Minimum variance system identification with application to digital adaptive flight control

A new on-line minimum variance filter for the identification of systems with additive and multiplicative noise is described which embodies both accuracy and computational efficiency. The resulting filter is shown to use both the covariance of the parameter vector itself and the covariance of the error in identification. A bias reduction scheme can be used to yield asymptotically unbiased estimates. Experimental results for simulated linearized lateral aircraft motion in a digital closed loop mode are presented, showing the utility of the identification schemes.

Kotob, S.↗

Optimal control of a supersonic inlet to minimize frequency of inlet unstart

A preliminary investigation into the use of modern control theory for the design of controls for a supersonic inlet is described. In particular, the task of controlling a mixed-compression supersonic inlet is formulated as a linear optimal stochastic control and estimation problem. An inlet can exhibit an undesirable instability due to excessive inlet normal shock motion. For the optimal control formulation of the inlet problem, a non quadratic performance index, which is equal to the expected frequency of inlet unstarts, is used. This physically meaningful performance index is minimized for a range of inlet disturbance and measurement noise covariances.

Lehtinen, B.↗

Application of optimum smoothing for image distortion correction

Optimum linear smoothing is utilized to estimate certain distortions in LANDSAT-D images. Measurements that are processed by the smoother consist of designated control of point locations within the images. Image distortions that are estimated by the smoother are those induced by LANDSAT-D satellite navigation errors and slowly varying attitude and sensor alignment uncertainties. Preliminary results indicate that optimum smoothing produces substantially more accurate distortion estimates than optimum filtering and that optimum smoothing may reduce the number of control points needed to yield desired image correction accuracy.

Werner, R. A.↗

The use of Landsat data to inventory cotton and soybean acreage in North Alabama

This study was performed to determine if Landsat data could be used to improve the accuracy of the estimation of cotton acreage. A linear classification algorithm and a maximum likelihood algorithm were used for computer classification of the area, and the classification was compared with ground truth. The classification accuracy for some fields was greater than 90 percent; however, the overall accuracy was 71 percent for cotton and 56 percent for soybeans. The results of this research indicate that computer analysis of Landsat data has potential for improving upon the methods presently being used to determine cotton acreage; however, additional experiments and refinements are needed before the method can be used operationally.

Downs, S. W., Jr.↗

Longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of an elliptical body with a horizontal tail at Mach numbers from 2.3 to 4.63

Longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of a configuration consisting of an elliptical body with an in plane horizontal tail were investigated. The tests were conducted at Mach numbers of 2.3, 2.96, 4.0, and 4.63. In some cases, the configuration with negative tail deflections yielded higher values of maximum lift drag ratio than did the configuration with an undeflected tail. This was due to body upwash acting on the tail and producing an additional lift increment with essentially no drag penalty. Linear theory methods used to estimate some of the longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of the model yielded results which compared well with experimental data for all Mach numbers in this investigation and for both small angles of attack and larger angles of attack where nonlinear (vortex) flow phenomena were present.

Shrout, B. L.↗