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At least 685 records · Page 38

Surrogate construction via weight parameterization of residual neural networks

Surrogate model development is a critical step for uncertainty quantification or other sample-intensive tasks for complex computational models. Here, in this work, we develop a multi-output surrogate form using a class of neural networks (NNs) that employ shortcut connections, namely Residual NNs (ResNets). ResNets are known to regularize the surrogate learning problem and improve the efficiency and accuracy of the resulting surrogate. Inspired by the continuous, Neural ODE analogy, we augment ResNets with weight parameterization strategy with respect to ResNet depth. Weight-parameterized ResNets regularize the NN surrogate learning problem and allow better generalization with a drastically reduced number of learnable parameters. We demonstrate that weight-parameterized ResNets are more accurate and efficient than conventional feed-forward multi-layer perceptron networks. We also compare various options for parameterization of the weights as functions of ResNet depth. We demonstrate the results on both synthetic examples and a large scale earth system model of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dependence of Convective Cloud Microphysical Properties on Environmental Conditions during the TRACER and ESCAPE Field Campaigns: A Synergistic Approach of Observations, Machine Learning and Parcel Models

The sensitivity of convective clouds to aerosols and their interactions with environment, combined with limited observational constraints in parameterizations, introduces significant uncertainties in atmospheric models. Here, this study investigates the dependence of convective cloud microphysical properties on environmental conditions using a synergistic approach that combines unique observations from the TRACER and ESCAPE field campaigns, machine learning techniques, and parcel model simulations with a super-droplet microphysics scheme. A random forest algorithm identifies in-situ vertical velocity (w), temperature (T), and surface fine-mode aerosol mass concentration as the three most important environmental conditions influencing cloud properties including liquid water content (LWC), number concentration for particles with D max < 50 μm (N c ,<50), 50 μm ≤ D max ≤ 3000 μm (N c,50–3000 ), and droplet effective diameter (D e ). Results show that LWC, N c,<50 , and N c,50–3000 significantly increase with w in updrafts. Across w bins, as T decreases, LWC, D e , and N c,50–3000 increase, while N c,<50 decreases, which are closely linked to the distance above cloud bases. Warmer cloud bases yield higher LWC, greater N c,50–3000 , and smaller N c,<50 , while polluted environments produce greater N c,<50 . Parcel model simulations successfully replicate these observed dependencies. The simulation results indicate that warmer cloud bases enhance condensation generating larger droplets, and differences in droplet sizes are then amplified through collision-coalescence, resulting in a greater N c,50–3000 . Polluted conditions result in a greater N c,<50 primarily due to enhanced cloud condensation nuclei activation despite increased collision-coalescence rates compared to pristine conditions. This study provides observed quantitative patterns characterizing cloud microphysical properties as a function of key environmental parameters, offering valuable constraints for improving physics parameterizations and numerical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Empirical Storm-Time Correction to the International Reference Ionosphere Model E-Region Electron and Ion Density Parameterizations Using Observations from TIMED/SABER

The response of the ionospheric E-region to solar-geomagnetic storms can be characterized using observations of infrared 4.3 micrometers emission. In particular, we utilize nighttime TIMED/SABER measurements of broadband 4.3 micrometers limb emission and derive a new data product, the NO+(v) volume emission rate, which is our primary observation-based quantity for developing an empirical storm-time correction the IRI E-region electron density. In this paper we describe our E-region proxy and outline our strategy for developing the empirical storm model. In our initial studies, we analyzed a six day storm period during the Halloween 2003 event. The results of this analysis are promising and suggest that the ap-index is a viable candidate to use as a magnetic driver for our model.

Mertens, Christoper J.↗

Lower length scale model for palladium attack of silicon carbide in TRISO fuel

TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particle fuels rely on silicon carbide (SiC) as the primary barrier for metallic fission product (FP) release. Palladium (Pd) generated by fission degrades the SiC layer, resulting in the formation of lamellar layers of palladium silicides (PdxSi) and carbon (C) perpendicular to the direction of attack. The Pd attack has been hypothesized to be responsible for failure of the SiC layer and enhance FP release. To better understand and quantify Pd attack of SiC in TRISO particles, a multiscale, mechanistic model of Pd transport is being developed by the NEAMS program. Previous work provided an initial hypothesis for modeling lamellar microstructure formation in SiC due to Pd attack using a phase-field model. The work described in this report builds on the previous model by using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to parameterize the phase-field model kinetics, and build a reduced order model in BISON using the improved mesoscale Pd penetration model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The role of radiation-dynamics interaction in regional numerical weather prediction

The role of radiation-dynamics interaction in regional numerical weather prediction of severe storm environment and mesoscale convective systems over the United States is researched. Based upon the earlier numerical model simulation experiments, it is believed that such interaction can have a profound impact on the dynamics and thermodynamics of regional weather systems. The research will be carried out using real-data model forecast experiments performed on the Cray-X/MP computer. The forecasting system to be used is a comprehensive mesoscale prediction system which includes analysis and initialization, the dynamic model, and the post-forecast diagnosis codes. The model physics are currently undergoing many improvements in parameterizing radiation processes in the model atmosphere. The forecast experiments in conjunction with in-depth model verification and diagnosis are aimed at a quantitative understanding of the interaction between atmospheric radiation and regional dynamical processes in mesoscale models as well as in nature. Thus, significant advances in regional numerical weather prediction can be made. Results shall also provide valuable information for observational designs in the area of remote sensing techniques to study the characteristics of air-land thermal interaction and moist processes under various atmospheric conditions.

Chang, Chia-Bo↗

Quantifying the Resolution Sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch Scheme Across the Gray Zone by Isolating Interactions: A TWP‐ICE Case Study

The resolution sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch (KF) convection scheme and the role of interactions between the physics and dynamics within the gray zone (<10 km) were investigated using the Separate Physics and Dynamics Experiment (SPADE) framework. Two groups of experiments were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model via traditional (Tradition) runs and SPADE runs with resolutions of 1, 2, 4, and 8 km during the wet period of the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP‐ICE). Results show that the KF scheme simulates the weakened convective processes well as the resolution increases in both groups, and the changes in the convective variables with resolution in SPADE are smaller than in the Tradition group. This indicates the important effects of interactions between model components on convection parameterizations as the resolution changes. Additionally, the microphysics variables remain nearly unchanged with resolution in SPADE and weaken slightly in Tradition as the resolution decreases, suggesting the relatively weaker influences of model interactions for the resolved‐cloud parameterization. Therefore, the scale‐aware behavior of KF scheme is further strengthened in Tradition runs, primarily through inhibiting the strength of stratiform processes through physics–dynamics interactions and physical components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Multiscale Modeling System: Developments, Applications, and Critical Issues

The foremost challenge in parameterizing convective clouds and cloud systems in large-scale models are the many coupled dynamical and physical processes that interact over a wide range of scales, from microphysical scales to the synoptic and planetary scales. This makes the comprehension and representation of convective clouds and cloud systems one of the most complex scientific problems in Earth science. During the past decade, the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud System Study (GCSS) has pioneered the use of single-column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) for the evaluation of the cloud and radiation parameterizations in general circulation models (GCMs; e.g., GEWEX Cloud System Science Team 1993). These activities have uncovered many systematic biases in the radiation, cloud and convection parameterizations of GCMs and have led to the development of new schemes (e.g., Zhang 2002; Pincus et al, 2003; Zhang and Wu 2003; Wu et al. 2003; Liang and Wu 2005; Wu and Liang 2005, and others). Comparisons between SCMs and CRMs using the same large-scale forcing derived from field campaigns have demonstrated that CRMs are superior to SCMs in the prediction of temperature and moisture tendencies (e.g., Das et al. 1999; Randall et al 2003b; Xie et al. 2005).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

QuadTune version 1: a regional tuner for global atmospheric models

When a new, better-formulated physical parameterization is introduced into a global atmospheric model, aspects of the global model solutions are sometimes degraded. Then, in order to use the new global model to address science questions, there is an incentive to restore its accuracy. Oftentimes this restoration is achieved by tuning of model parameter values. Unfortunately, the retuning process is expensive because characterizing the parameter dependence requires numerous time-consuming global simulations. To reduce the cost of tuning, this manuscript introduces a “poor man's” model tuner, “QuadTune”. QuadTune carves the globe into regions and approximates the model parameter dependence through the use of an uncorrelated quadratic emulator (i.e., response surface). The simplicity of the emulator reduces the required number of global model simulations and aids explainability of tuner behavior. Tuning removes parametric error but leaves behind model structural error. Structural error manifests itself as regional residual biases, such as stubborn biases and tuning trade-offs. To visualize these residual biases, QuadTune's software includes a set of diagnostic plots. This paper illustrates the use of the plots for characterizing residual biases with an example tuning problem.

Environmental sciences↗

Atmospheric convergence feedback in a simple model for El Nino

A parameterization is developed for the feedback between dynamics and heating associated with moisture convergence in the tropical atmospheric boundary layer. The feedback improves the ability of a simple model to simulate observed anomalies of the tropical atmosphere during El Nino events. In particular, two features of the observations are reproduced by including the feedback process: the smaller scale of atmospheric anomalies as compared to SST anomalies, and the focusing of the anomalies in the vicinity of the mean convergence zones. The principal remaining shortcomings of the model are discussed.

Zebiak, S. E.↗

Comparison of simulated cloud cover with satellite obsrvations over the Western United States

Satellite imagery datasets and regional climate model results are intercompared for evaluation of model accuracy in the simulation of cloud cover. Both monthly average individual simulation times are analyzed. To provide a consistent comparison, satellite data are first mapped into the model's geographic projection, grid domain, and resolution. It is found that September 1988 monthly average cloud fraction results from the modeled simulations correspond to observations, in both spatial pattern and magnitude, with bias less than +/- 20% cloud fraction over the entire inland West. Agreement in the pattern of cloud fraction also is evident for monthly average cloud fraction in July, but there is no negative bias of 10%-30% cloud fraction in the model diagnosis of cloud cover. Correlations between the spatial distributions of model-derived and observed cloud fractions are found to exceed 0.80 for certain geographic regions of the West, and these correlations are largest over mountainous areas during summer. Case studies of a series of daily cloud cover demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate the effects of frontal passage on cloud distribution. The ability of the RegCM1 to simulate daily cloud fraction and diurnal cloud evolution is somewhat weak for the summer convective season. It is anticipated that a more recent version of the regional climate model may improve the simulation of summer season cloud cover, through changes in cloud parameterization and improvements in model resolution.

Wetzel, Melanie A.↗

Observations of Thermospheric Horizontal Winds at Watson Lake, Yukon Territory (lambda=65 Deg N)

Fabry-Perot interferometer observations of the thermospheric O I (6300 A) emission have been conducted from an airglow observatory at a dark field site in the southeastern Yukon Territory, Canada, for the period November 1991 to April 1993. The experiment operated in unattended, remote fashion, has resulted in a substantial data set from which mean neutral winds have been determined. Dependent upon geomagnetic activity, the nocturnal location of the site is either equatorward of the auroral oval or within oval boundaries. The data set is rich enough to permit hourly binning of neutral winds based upon the K(sub p) geomagnetic disturbance index as well as the season. For cases of low geomagnetic activity the averaged vector horizontal neutral wind exhibits the characteristics of a midlatitude site displaying antisunward pressure-gradient-driven winds. As the geomagnetic activity rises in the late afternoon and evening winds slowly rotate sunward in an anticlockwise direction, initially remaining near 100 m/s in speed but eventually increasing to 300 m/s for K(sub p) greater than 5. For the higher levels of activity the observed neutral wind flow pattern resembles a higher-latitude polar cap pattern characterized by ion drag forcing of thermospheric neutral gases. In addition, rotational Coriolis forcing on the dusk side enhances the ion drag forcing, resulting in dusk winds which trace out the clockwise dusk cell plasma flow. On the dawn side the neutral winds also rotate in an anticlockwise direction as the strength of geomagnetic disturbances increase. Since the site is located at a transition latitude between the midlatitude and the polar cap the data set provides a sensitive test for general circulation models which attempt to parameterize the contribution of magnetospheric processes. A comparison with the Vector Spherical Harmonic (VSH) model indicates several regions of poor correspondence for December solstice conditions but reasonable agreement for the vernal equinox.

Niciejewski, R. J.↗

Simulating Observed Ozone Loss in the Northern Hemisphere Winter

Ozone amounts observed at high Northern latitudes in late winter and early spring have been relatively very low in four of the last six years. On the face of it, this decline appears similar to that observed in the Antarctic in the mid-1980s in spite of the fact that the abundance of stratospheric chlorine is currently steady or decreasing. In order to predict the extent to which this change represents a trend, and to understand what combination of factors produces the low ozone, we need to accurately simulate these observations with models. In this presentation, we focus on the winter of 1999-2000, which exhibited some of the lowest ozone ever recorded in the Northern hemisphere. It also contained the largest-ever assembled set of atmospheric measurements and modeling activities in the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment/Third European Stratospheric Experiment on Ozone (SOLVE/THESEO). We use SOLVE/THESEO observations in comparison with the Goddard 3-D global model of stratospheric chemistry and transport to explore the model's capability to simulate the evolution of ozone and other species through the winter. We will discuss advective transport and mixing, chlorine activation, and denitrification, which are key processes to accurately simulating wintertime ozone. Preliminary results show that, although the model tracer transport and chlorine activation compare relatively well with observations, the magnitude of observed ozone loss is difficult to achieve in the model. Calculated ozone loss is sensitive to denitrification, which presents a major challenge to parameterization in a global model. Simulation requirements and uncertainties will be evaluated.

Kawa, S. R.↗

A Model-Based, Bayesian Solution for Characterization of Complex Damage Scenarios in Aerospace Composite Structures

Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined.

H. Reed↗

Effects of dynamic heat fluxes on model climate sensitivity Meridional sensible and latent heat fluxes

The high- and low-latitude radiative-dynamic (HLRD) climatic model of Wang et al. (1984) was used to study the effect of meridional heat (MH) fluxes on climate changes caused by increases of CO2 abundance and solar constant variations. However, the empirical MH parameterization of the HLRD model was replaced by physically based parameterization, which gives separate meridional sensible and latent heat fluxes and provides a complete representation of the dependence of the flux on the mean temperature field. Both parameterization methods yielded about the same changes in global mean surface temperature and ice line, and both produced only small changes in meridional temperature gradient, although the latter were even smaller with the physically based parameterizations. At any latitude, the hemispheric mean surface temperature, rather than MH fluxes, dominates the surface temperature changes.

Gutowski, W. J., Jr.↗

The effect of ground hydrology on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations

A zonally averaged climate model is used to investigate the effects of different evaporation parameterizations on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations. The model is based on the annual mean zonally averaged hemispheric climate model of Ohring and Adler (1978), with some modifications on the heating parameterizations. The dynamic model utilizes the two-level quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity equations. The heating processes are related to solar radiation, long-wave radiation, convection, evaporation, latent heat release, and ocean transport. Evaporation parameterization has been improved by using a nonlinear formulation in which the Bowen ratio is determined by the vertical gradients of water vapor and temperature near the earth's surface.

Chow, S.-H.↗

On the Dependence of Simulated Convection on Domain Size in CRMs

Abstract We present a heuristic model to explain the suppression of deep convection in convection‐resolving models (CRMs) with a small number of grid columns, such as those used in super‐parameterized or multi‐scale modeling framework (MMF) general circulation models (GCM) of the atmosphere. Domains with few grid columns require greater instability to sustain convection because they force a large convective fraction, driving strong compensating subsidence warming. Updraft dilution, which is stronger for reduced horizontal grid spacing, enhances this effect. Thus, suppression of deep convection in CRMs with few grid columns can be reduced by increasing grid spacing. Radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations using standalone CRM simulations with the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) and using GCM‐coupled CRM simulations with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)‐MMF confirm the heuristic model results.

CRM↗

Calibration of radiation codes in climate models: Comparison of calculations with observations from the SPECtral Radiation Experiment (SPECTRE)

The primary goal of SPECTRE is to: close the loopholes by which longwave radiation models have eluded incisive comparisons with measurements. Likewise, the experimental approach was quite simple in concept, namely: accurately measure the zenith infrared radiance at high spectral resolution while simultaneously profiling the radiatively important atmospheric properties with conventional and remote sensing devices. The field phase of SPECTRE was carried out as part of FIRE Cirrus II, and detailed spectra of the down welling radiance were obtained by several interferometers simultaneous to the measurement of the optical properties of the atmosphere. We are now well along in the process of analyzing the data and calibrating radiation codes so that they may be used more effectively in climate related studies. The calibration is being done with models ranging from the most detailed (line-by-line) to the broad-band parameterizations used in climate models. This paper summarizes our progress in the calibration for clear-sky conditions. When this stage is completed, we will move on to the calibration for cirrus conditions.

Ellingson, R. G.↗

Rain Reevaporation, Boundary Layer Convection Interactions, and Pacific Rainfall Patterns in an AGCM

Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) show that parameterized rain re-evaporation has a large impact on simulated precipitation patterns in the tropical Pacific, especially on the configuration of the model s intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Weak re-evaporation leads t o the formation of a "double ITCZ" during the northern warm season. The double ITCZ is accompanied by strong coupling between precipitation and high-frequency vertical motion in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Strong reevaporation leads to a better overall agreement of simulated precipitation with observations. The model s double ITCZ bias is reduced. At the same time, correlation between high-frequency vertical motion in the PBL and precipitation is reduced. Experiments with modified physics suggest that evaporative cooling by rain near the PBL top weakens the coupling between precipitation and vertical motion. This may reduce the model s tendency to form double ITCZs. The strength of high-frequency vertical motions in the PBL was also reduced directly through the introduction of a diffusive cumulus momentum transport (DCMT) parameterization. The DCMT had a visible impact on simulated precipitation in the tropics, but did not reduce the model s double bias in all cases.

Bacmeister, Julio T.↗