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At least 685 records · Page 38

A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color

The third primary production algorithm round robin (PPARR3) compares output from 24 models that estimate depth-integrated primary production from satellite measurements of ocean color, as well as seven general circulation models (GCMs) coupled with ecosystem or biogeochemical models. Here we compare the global primary production fields corresponding to eight months of 1998 and 1999 as estimated from common input fields of photosynthetically-available radiation (PAR), sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth, and chlorophyll concentration. We also quantify the sensitivity of the ocean-color-based models to perturbations in their input variables. The pair-wise correlation between ocean-color models was used to cluster them into groups or related output, which reflect the regions and environmental conditions under which they respond differently. The groups do not follow model complexity with regards to wavelength or depth dependence, though they are related to the manner in which temperature is used to parameterize photosynthesis. Global average PP varies by a factor of two between models. The models diverged the most for the Southern Ocean, SST under 10 C, and chlorophyll concentration exceeding 1mg Chlm-3. Based on the conditions under which the model results diverge most, we conclude that current ocean-color-based models are challenged by high-nutrient low-chlorophyll conditions, and extreme temperatures or chlorophyll concentrations. The GCM-based models predict comparable primary production to those based on ocean color: they estimate higher values in the Southern Ocean, at low SST, and in the equatorial band, while they estimate lower values in eutrophic regions (probably because the area of high chlorophyll concentrations is smaller in the GCMs). Further progress in primary production modeling requires improved understanding of the effect of temperature on photosynthesis and better parameterization of the maximum photosynthetic rate.

Yamanaka, Yasuhiro↗

Evaluating the Large-Scale Hydrological Cycle Response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) Ensemble

The mid-Pliocene (∼3 Ma) is one of the most recent warm periods with high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and resulting high temperatures, and it is often cited as an analog for near-term future climate change. Here, we apply a moisture budget analysis to investigate the response of the large-scale hydrological cycle at low latitudes within a 13-model ensemble from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The results show that increased atmospheric moisture content within the mid-Pliocene ensemble (due to the thermodynamic effect) results in wetter conditions over the deep tropics, i.e., the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Maritime Continent, and drier conditions over the subtropics. Note that the dynamic effect plays a more important role than the thermodynamic effect in regional precipitation minus evaporation (PmE) changes (i.e., northward ITCZ shift and wetter northern Indian Ocean). The thermodynamic effect is offset to some extent by a dynamic effect involving a northward shift of the Hadley circulation that dries the deep tropics and moistens the subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., the subtropical Pacific). From the perspective of Earth's energy budget, the enhanced southward cross-equatorial atmospheric transport (0.22 PW), induced by the hemispheric asymmetries of the atmospheric energy, favors an approximately 1∘ northward shift of the ITCZ. The shift of the ITCZ reorganizes atmospheric circulation, favoring a northward shift of the Hadley circulation. In addition, the Walker circulation consistently shifts westward within PlioMIP2 models, leading to wetter conditions over the northern Indian Ocean. The PlioMIP2 ensemble highlights that an imbalance of interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate.

mid-Pliocene↗

The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to Intensified Irrigation in Global Climate Model Simulations

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson's r = -0.66 and r = -0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = -0.72 and r = -0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by *40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land-sea temperature gradients.

amplification↗

Constraints on hydrothermal heat flux through the oceanic lithosphere from global heat flow

A significant discrepancy exists between the heat flow measured at the seafloor and the higher values predicted by thermal models of the cooling lithosphere. This discrepancy is generally interpreted as indicating that the upper oceanic crust is cooled significantly by hydrothermal circulation. The magnitude of this heat flow discrepancy is the primary datum used to estimate the volume of hydrothermal flow, and the variation in the discrepancy with lithospheric age is the primary constraint on how the hydrothermal flux is divided between near-ridge and off-ridge environments. The resulting estimates are important for investigation of both the thermal structure of the lithosphere and the chemistry of the oceans. We reevaluate the magnitude and age variation of the discrepancy using a global heat flow data set substantially larger than in earlier studies, and the GDHI (Global Depth and Heat Flow) model that better predicts the heat flow. We estimate that of the predicted global oceanic heat flux of 32 x 10(exp 12) W, 34% (11 x 10(exp 12) W) occurs by hydrothermal flow. Approximately 30% of the hydrothermal heat flux occurs in crust younger than 1 Ma, so the majority of this flux is off-ridge. These hydrothermal heat flux estimates are upper bounds, because heat flow measurements require sediment at the site and so are made preferentially at topographic lows, where heat flow may be depressed. Because the water temperature for the near-ridge flow exceeds that for the off-ridge flow, the near-ridge water flow will be even a smaller fraction of the total water flow. As a result, in estimating fluxes from geochemical data, use of the high water temperatures appropriate for the ridge axis may significantly overestimate the heat flux for an assumed water flux or underestimate the water flux for an assumed heat flux. Our data also permit improved estimates of the 'sealing' age, defined as the age where the observed heat flow approximately equals that predicted, suggesting that hydrothermal heat transfer has largely ceased. Although earlier studies suggested major differences in sealing ages for different ocean basins, we find that the sealing ages for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans are similar and consistent with the sealing age for the entire data set, 65 +/- 10 Ma. The previous inference of a young (approximately 20 Ma) sealing age for the Pacific appears to have biased downward several previous estimates of the global hydrothermal flux. The heat flow data also provide indirect evidence for the mechanism by which the hydrothermal heat flux becomes small, which has often been ascribed to isolation of the igneous crust from seawater due to the hydraulic conductivity of the intervening sediment. We find, however, that even the least sedimented sites show the systematic increase of the ratio of observed to predicted heat flow with age, although the more sedimented sites have a younger sealing age. Moreover, the heat flow discrepancy persists at heavily sedimented sites until approximately 50 Ma. It thus appears that approximately 100-200 m of sediment is neither necessary nor sufficient to stop hydrothermal heat transfer. We therefore conclude that the age of the crust is the primary control on the fraction of heat transported by hydrothermal flow and that sediment thickness has a lesser effect. This inference is consistent with models in which hydrothermal flow decreases with age due to reduced crustal porosity and hence permeability.

Stein, Carol A.↗

Atmospheric Gravitational Torque Variations Based on Various Gravity Fields

Advancements in the study of the Earth's variable rate of rotation and the motion of its rotation axis have given impetus to the analysis of the torques between the atmosphere, oceans and solid Earth. The output from global general circulation models of the atmosphere (pressure, surface stress) is being used as input to the torque computations. Gravitational torque between the atmosphere, oceans and solid Earth is an important component of the torque budget. Computation of the gravitational torque involves the adoption of a gravitational model from a wide variety available. The purpose of this investigation is to ascertain to what extent this choice might influence the results of gravitational torque computations.

Sanchez, Braulio V.↗

Nimbus 7 SMMR Derived Seasonal Variations in the Water Vapor, Liquid Water and Surface Winds over the Global Oceans

Monthly mean distributions of water vapor and liquid water contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere and the surface wind speed were derived from Nimbus Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) observations over the global oceans for the period November 1978 to November 1979. The remote sensing techniques used to estimate these parameters from SMMR are presented to reveal the limitations, accuracies, and applicability of the satellite-derived information for climate studies. On a time scale of the order of a month, the distribution of atmospheric water vapor over the oceans is controlled by the sea surface temperature and the large scale atmospheric circulation. The monthly mean distribution of liquid water content in the atmosphere over the oceans closely reflects the precipitation patterns associated with the convectively and baroclinically active regions. Together with the remotely sensed surface wind speed that is causing the sea surface stress, the data collected reveal the manner in which the ocean-atmosphere system is operating. Prominent differences in the water vapor patterns from one year to the next, or from month to month, are associated with anomalies in the wind and geopotential height fields. In association with such circulation anomalies the precipitation patterns deduced from the meteorological network over adjacent continents also reveal anomalous distributions.

Prabhakara, C.↗

A Primordial Atmospheric Origin of Hydrospheric Deuterium Enrichment on Mars

The deuterium-to-hydrogen (D/H or 2H/1H) ratio of Martian atmospheric water (~6× standard mean ocean water, SMOW) is higher than that of known sources, requiring planetary enrichment. A recent measurement by NASA’s Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity of Hesperian-era (>3 Ga) clays yields a D/H ratio ~3×SMOW, demonstrating that most of the enrichment occurs early in Mars’s history, reinforcing the conclusions of Martian meteorite studies. As on Venus, Mars’s D/H enrichment is widely thought to reflect preferential loss to space of 1H (protium) relative to 2H (deuterium), but both the cause and the global environmental context of large and early hydrogen losses remain to be determined. Here, we apply a recent model of primordial atmosphere evolution to Mars, link the magma ocean of the accretion epoch with a subsequent water-ocean epoch, and calculate the behavior of deuterium for comparison with the observed record. In contrast to earlier works that consider Martian D/H fractionation in atmospheres in which hydrogen reservoirs are present exclusively as H2O or H2, here we consider 2-component (H2O-H2) outgassed atmospheres in which both condensed (H2O) and escaping (H2) components – and their interaction – are explicitly calculated. We find that a a ≈2-3× hydrospheric deuterium-enrichment is produced rapidly if the Martian magma ocean is chemically reducing at last equilibration with the primordial atmosphere, making H2 and CO the initially dominant species, with minor abundances of H2O and CO2. Reducing gases – in particular H2 – can cause substantial greenhouse warming and prevent a water ocean from freezing immediately after the magma ocean epoch. We find that greenhouse warming due to plausible H2 inventories (pH2=1-102 bars) yields surface temperatures high enough (Ts=290-560 K) to stabilize a water ocean and produce an early hydrological cycle through which surface water can be circulated. Moreover, the pressure-temperature conditions are high enough to produce ocean-atmosphere H2O-H2 isotopic equilibrium through gas-phase deuterium exchange such that surface H2O strongly concentrates deuterium relative to H2, which preferentially takes up protium and escapes from the primordial atmosphere. The efficient physical separation of deuterium-rich (H2O) and deuterium-poor (H2) species via condensation permits equilibrium isotopic partitioning and early atmospheric escape to be recorded in modern crustal reservoirs. The proposed scenario of primordial H2-CO-rich outgassing and escape suggests significant durations (>Myr) of chemical conditions on the Martian surface conducive to prebiotic chemistry immediately following magma ocean crystallization.

Mars↗

Exploring the southern ocean response to climate change

The purpose of this project was to couple a regional (Southern Ocean) ocean/sea ice model to the existing Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This modification recognizes: the relative isolation of the Southern Ocean; the need to account, prognostically, for the significant air/sea/ice interaction through all involved components; and the advantage of translating the atmospheric lower boundary (typically the rapidly changing ocean surface) to a level that is consistent with the physical response times governing the system evolution (that is, to the base of the fast responding ocean surface layer). The deeper ocean beneath this layer varies on time scales several orders of magnitude slower than the atmosphere and surface ocean, and therefore the boundary between the upper and deep ocean represents a more reasonable fixed boundary condition.

Martinson, Douglas G.↗

Design, fabrication and systems integration of a satellite tracked, free-drifting ocean data buoy

Engineering details are presented of a small free-drifting buoy configuration designed for use in the study of continental shelf water circulation patterns in the Chesapeake Bight of the Western North Atlantic Ocean. The buoy incoporated French instrumentation and was interrogated by the French EOLE satellite to provide position and four channels of temperature data. The buoy design included a variable depth drogue and a power supply sufficient for six weeks of continuous operations. Proof tests of the configuration indicated an adequate design and subsequent field experiments verified the proper functioning of the system.

Wallace, J. W.↗

The general circulation and meridional heat transport of the subtropical South Atlantic determined by inverse methods

The circulation and meridional heat transport of the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean are determined through the application of the inverse method of Wunsch (1978) to hydrographic data from the IGY and METEOR expeditions. Meridional circulation results of the two data sets agree on a northward mass transport of about 20 million metric tons/sec for waters above the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and a comparable southward transport of deep waters. Additional gross features held in common are the Benguela, South Equatorial and North Brazilian Coastal currents' northward transport of the Surface Water, and the deflection of the southward-flowing NADW from the South American Coast into the mid ocean by a seamount chain near 20 deg S. Total heat transport is equatorward, with a magnitude of 0.8 X 10 to the 15th W near 30 deg S and indistinguishable from zero near 8 deg S.

Fu, L.-L.↗

How Well are Recent Climate Variability Signals Resolved by Satellite Radiative Flux Estimates?

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. Understanding the character of radiative flux estimates and relating them to variations in other energy fluxes and climate state variables is key to improving our understanding of climate. In this work we will evaluate several recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from rnid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and HlRS operational soundings profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Several estimates of downward LW flux at the surface inferred from microwave data are also examined. Since these products have been evaluated with Baseline Surface Radiation Network data over land we focus over ocean regions and use the DOE/NOAA/NASA Shipboard Ocean Atmospheric Radiation (SOAR) surface flux measurements to characterize performance of these data sets under both clear and cloudy conditions. Some aspects of performance are stratified according to SST and vertical motion regimes. Comparisons to the TRMM/CERES SRB data in 1998 are also interpreted. These radiative fluxes are then analyzed to determine how surface (and TOA) radiative exchanges respond to interannual signals of ENS0 warm and cold events. Our analysis includes regional changes as well as integrated signals over land, ocean and various latitude bands. Changes in water vapor and cloud forcing signatures are prominent on interannual time scales. Prominent signals are also found in the SW fluxes for the Pinatubo volcanic event. These systematic changes in fluxes are related to changes in large-scale circulations and energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Some estimates of signal-to-noise and reliability are discussed to place our results in context.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Large-scale circulation departures related to wet episodes in northeast Brazil

Large scale circulation features are presented as related to wet spells over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) during the rainy season (March and April) of 1979. The rainy season season is devided into dry and wet periods, the FGGE and geostationary satellite data was averaged and mean and departure fields of basic variables and cloudiness were studied. Analysis of seasonal mean circulation features show: lowest sea level easterlies beneath upper level westerlies; weak meridional winds; high relative humidity over the Amazon basin and relatively dry conditions over the South Atlantic Ocean. A fluctuation was found in the large scale circulation features on time scales of a few weeks or so over Nordeste and the South Atlantic sector. Even the subtropical High SLP's have large departures during wet episodes, implying a short period oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere Hadley circulation.

Sikdar, D. N.↗

Large-scale circulation departures related to wet episodes in north-east Brazil

Large scale circulation features are presented as related to wet spells over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) during the rainy season (March and April) of 1979. The rainy season is divided into dry and wet periods; the FGGE and geostationary satellite data was averaged; and mean and departure fields of basic variables and cloudiness were studied. Analysis of seasonal mean circulation features show: lowest sea level easterlies beneath upper level westerlies; weak meridional winds; high relative humidity over the Amazon basin and relatively dry conditions over the South Atlantic Ocean. A fluctuation was found in the large scale circulation features on time scales of a few weeks or so over Nordeste and the South Atlantic sector. Even the subtropical High SLPs have large departures during wet episodes, implying a short period oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere Hadley circulation.

Sikdar, Dhirendra N.↗

Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

Funk, Chris C.↗

Rate of production, dissolution and accumulation of biogenic solids in the ocean

The equatorial current system, by its response to global circulation changes, provides a unique recording mechanism for long range climatic oscillations. A permanent record of the changes in rate of upwelling and organic production is generated in the equatorial deep sea sediments, particularly by such biogenic components which are unaffected by secondary dissolution. In order to determine the rates of accumulation of various sedimentary components, a reliable differential measurement of age of the strata must be obtained. Various approaches to this problem are reviewed, and sources of error discussed. Secondary dissolution of calcium carbonate introduces a substantial and variable difference between the dissolution-modified, and hence a priori unknown, rate of deposition on one hand and the rate of accumulation, derivable from the observed concentration, on the other. The cause and magnitude of these variations are of importance, particularly since some current dating schemes are based on assumed constancy in the rate of accumulation of this and, in some cases, also all other sedimentary components. The concepts used in rate evaluation are discussed with emphasis on the difference between the state of dissolution, an observable property of the sediment, and the rate of dissolution, a parameter that requires deduction of the carbonate fraction dissolved, and of the time differential. As a most likely cause of the enhanced state of dissolution of the interglacial carbonate sediments is proposed the lowered rates of biogenic production and deposition, which cause longer exposure of the carbonate microfossils to corrosion in the bioturbated surface layer of the sediment. Historical perspective is included in the discussion in view of the dedication of the Symposium to Hans Pettersson, the leader of the Swedish Deep Sea Expedition 1947-1948, an undertaking that opened a new era in deep sea research and planetary dynamics.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗

Solar-terrestrial interactions

The effects of solar radiation on man's environment are discussed. It is solar radiation that is the basic energy source driving the circulations of the earth's atmosphere and oceans. Solar radiation is responsible for the ionization of the earth's upper atmosphere to form the ionosphere, which is important to our understanding of the magnetosphere and its interaction with the solar wind. The solar wind, which is the continuous (but not steady) flow of the sun's coronal plasma and magnetic field into interplanetary space, plays both an active and passive role in its interaction with the earth's environment.

Source record↗

Effect of chlorofluoromethane infrared radiation on zonal atmospheric temperatures

Estimates are made of changes in the atmospheric climate due to the radiative effects of 10 ppb of chlorofluoromethanes (CFM's). The estimates are derived on the basis of a 12-layer stratospheric general circulation model with a specified change of ocean temperature. Two tropical maxima in zonal average temperature change were observed: one in the upper troposphere and one centered at the tropopause. The temperature change exceeds the surface temperature change by a factor of at least two. If the 1975 CFM emission rate were to continue indefinitely, stratospheric water-vapor concentrations would increase by up to 60% due to CFM radiative effects. This would reduce ozone concentrations by an additional 4% of the natural ozone column.

Dickinson, R. E.↗