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At least 685 records · Page 38

Bayesian Spatial Models for Projecting Corn Yields

Climate change is predicted to impact corn yields. Previous studies analyzing these impacts differ in data and modeling approaches and, consequently, corn yield projections. We analyze the impacts of climate change on corn yields using two statistical models with different approaches for dealing with county-level effects. The first model, which is novel to modeling corn yields, uses a computationally efficient spatial basis function approach. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate both parametric and climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the statistical models have similar predictive abilities, but the spatial basis function model is faster and hence potentially a useful tool for crop yield projections. We also explore how different gridded temperature datasets affect the statistical model fit and performance. Compared to the dataset with only weather station data, we find that the dataset composed of satellite and weather station data results in a model with a magnified relationship between temperature and corn yields. For all statistical models, we observe a relationship between temperature and corn yields that is broadly similar to previous studies. We use downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP5 climate model projections to obtain detrended corn yield projections for 2020–2049 and 2069–2098. In both periods, we project a decrease in the mean corn yield production, reinforcing the findings of other studies. However, the magnitude of the decrease and the associated uncertainties we obtain differ from previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PowerMappeR: Power-Optimized Mapping of SNNs onto ReRAM Crossbars coupled via Packet-Switched NoCs

Many recent efforts in developing hardware-accelerated spiking neural networks (SNNs) are characterized by deep co-design between algorithms, architectures, and devices. Architectural advances overcome device constraints by coupling together many small resistive-RAM (ReRAM) crossbars via a network-on-chip (NoC) for neuromorphic component operation. Concurrently, improved SNN training methods increase accuracy and structural sparsity in networks despite growing problem sizes. Finally, compilers leverage these attributes to minimize area and inter-crossbar communication while mapping large SNNs to sophisticated architectures. However, for compiler-driven co-design to realize increasingly complex and profitable optimizations, a compile-time view of power consumption is critical. We present PowerMappeR to express and optimize over mapping-, architecture-, and device-specific power consumption information. By modeling the dynamic power of well-established components, we develop an integer linear programming (ILP)-based, encoding-agnostic, parametric power estimation model. Using this model, we demonstrate practical improvements in area and inter-crossbar communication by 0%–9.5% and 1.4%–5.1%, respectively. We also limit hotspot formation during optimization, achieving comparable or better results in targeted metrics with up to 96.4%–97.1% restriction of hotspot magnitude. Finally, we introduce profile-guided formulations to reduce worst-case and expected-case hotspot magnitude by 40.7%–69.5% and 40.6%–56.3%, respectively. Optimizing worst-case hotspot magnitude incidentally improves expected-case magnitude by 10.85%–33.45%. Reciprocally, optimizing expected-case magnitude incidentally improves worst-case magnitude by 4.33%–39.87%. Validation against hardware simulators confirms that PowerMappeR can decrease dynamic power consumption by 12.6%–27.3%.

Pohl, Devin [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000040149027)↗

Wind Tunnel Investigation of Ground Wind Loads for Ares Launch Vehicle

A three year program was conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) Aeroelasticity Branch (AB) and Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) with the primary objective to acquire scaled steady and dynamic ground-wind loads (GWL) wind-tunnel data for rollout, on-pad stay, and on-pad launch configurations for the Ares I-X Flight Test Vehicle (FTV). The experimental effort was conducted to obtain an understanding of the coupling of aerodynamic and structural characteristics that can result in large sustained wind-induced oscillations (WIO) on such a tall and slender launch vehicle and to generate a unique database for development and evaluation of analytical methods for predicting steady and dynamic GWL, especially those caused by vortex shedding, and resulting in significant WIO. This paper summarizes the wind-tunnel test program that employed two dynamically-aeroelastically scaled GWL models based on the Ares I-X Flight Test Vehicle. The first model tested, the GWL Checkout Model (CM), was a relatively simple model with a secondary objective of restoration and development of processes and methods for design, fabrication, testing, and data analysis of a representative ground wind loads model. In addition, parametric variations in surface roughness, Reynolds number, and protuberances (on/off) were investigated to determine effects on GWL characteristics. The second windtunnel model, the Ares I-X GWL Model, was significantly more complex and representative of the Ares I-X FTV and included the addition of simplified rigid geometrically-scaled models of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Mobile Launch Platform (MLP) and Launch Complex 39B primary structures. Steady and dynamic base bending moment as well as model response and steady and unsteady pressure data was acquired during the testing of both models. During wind-tunnel testing of each model, flow conditions (speed and azimuth) where significant WIO occurred, were identified and thoroughly investigated. Scaled data from the Ares I-X GWL model test was used in the determination of worst-case loads for the analysis of Ares I-X FTV design wind conditions. Finally, this paper includes a brief discussion of the limited full-scale GWL data acquired during the rollout and on-pad stay of the Ares I-X FTV that was launched from KSC on October 28, 2009.

Keller, Donald F.↗

Seasat wind and wave observations of northeast Pacific hurricane Iva, August 13, 1978

The paper examines Seasat wind and wave observations collected in the eye of hurricane Iva on August 13, 1978 in the northeast Pacific. A maximum wind speed of 25-30 m/s is observed, along with a banana-shape high-wind-speed distribution. Two-dimensional Fourier transforms of selected SAR scenes show a dominant wavefield characterized by wavelengths of 166-211 m, with a fanlike distribution of propagation directions. A simple geometric model is proposed to explain the dominant wave field in terms of prior storm intensity and location, which is combined with the Ross parametric hurricane wave model and Seasat wind and wave data to estimate a value of 43 km for the effective radial distance from the storm center to the region of maximum winds.

Gonzalez, F. I.↗

Theoretical modeling of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter structural loadings and power performances

Here, this study presents theoretical formulations to evaluate the fundamental parameters and performance characteristics of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) device. Employing a flat plate assumption and potential flow formulation in elliptical coordinates, closed-form equations for the added mass, radiation damping, and excitation forces/torques in the relevant pitch-pitch and surge-pitch directions of motion are developed and used to calculate the system's response amplitude operator and the forces and moments acting on the foundation. The model is benchmarked against numerical simulations using WAMIT and WEC-Sim, showcasing excellent agreement. The sensitivity of plate thickness on the analytical hydrodynamic solutions is investigated over several thickness-to-width ratios ranging from 1:80 to 1:10. The results show that as the thickness of the benchmark OSWEC increases, the deviation of the analytical hydrodynamic coefficients from the numerical solutions grows from 3% to 25%. Differences in the excitation forces and torques, however, are contained within 12%. While the flat plate assumption is a limitation of the proposed analytical model, the error is within a reasonable margin for use in the design space exploration phase before a higher-fidelity (and thus more computationally expensive) model is employed. A parametric study demonstrates the ability of the analytical model to quickly sweep over a domain of OSWEC dimensions, illustrating the analytical model's utility in the early phases of design.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Corrosion of Al-Fe self-pierce riveting joints with multiphysics-based modeling and experiments

Self-piercing riveting (SPR) is an extensively used joining technique to assemble dissimilar materials. However, this joining of the dissimilar materials can generate galvanic/crevice corrosion, which can drastically impact the mechanical properties and the service life of the joint. In this study, a multiphysics-based hybrid modeling approach is developed for the galvanic corrosion of the Al-Fe SPR joints, which can consider the corrosion initiation and corrosion evaluation jointly. Experimental studies are first performed to extract information regarding the corrosion initiation sites, corrosion evolution and overall corrosion induced material loss in SPR joints. The initiation information is then passed onto the multiphysics FE model thus making it a hybrid model. This model can help understand the influences of metal microstructure on the corrosion propagation while the morphology changes can also be analyzed. Using the developed hybrid modeling approach, thorough parametric studies can be performed to explore the coupled impacts of multiple corrosion factors on the corrosion behavior of the joints. The developed hybrid model is validated on the prediction of galvanic corrosion for the SPR joints by comparing with experimental observations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Digital Modeling on Large Kernel Metamaterial Neural Network

Deep neural networks (DNNs) utilized recently are physically deployed with computational units (e.g., CPUs and GPUs). Such a design might lead to a heavy computational burden, significant latency, and intensive power consumption, which are critical limitations in applications such as Internet of Things (IoT), edge computing, and usage of drones. Recent advances in optical computational units (e.g., metamaterial) have shed light on energy-free and light-speed neural networks. However, the digital design of the metamaterial neural network (MNN) is fundamentally limited by its physical limitations, such as precision, noise, and bandwidth during fabrication. Moreover, the unique advantages of MNN’s (e.g., light-speed computation) are not fully explored via standard 3×3 convolution kernels. In this paper, we propose a novel large kernel metamaterial neural network (LMNN) that maximizes the digital capacity of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) MNN with model re-parametrization and network compression, while also considering the optical limitation explicitly. The new digital learning scheme can maximize the learning capacity of MNN while modeling the physical restrictions of meta-optics. With the proposed LMNN, the computation cost of the convolutional front-end can be offloaded to fabricated optical hardware. The experimental results on two publicly available datasets demonstrate that the optimized hybrid design improved classification accuracy while reducing computational latency. In conclusion, the development of the proposed LMNN is a promising step towards the ultimate goal of energy-free and light-speed AI.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Strict Constraint Feasibility in Analysis and Design of Uncertain Systems

This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and design optimization of models subject to parametric uncertainty, where hard inequality constraints are present. Hard constraints are those that must be satisfied for all parameter realizations prescribed by the uncertainty model. Emphasis is given to uncertainty models prescribed by norm-bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value, i.e., hyper-spheres, and by sets of independently bounded uncertain variables, i.e., hyper-rectangles. These models make it possible to consider sets of parameters having comparable as well as dissimilar levels of uncertainty. Two alternative formulations for hyper-rectangular sets are proposed, one based on a transformation of variables and another based on an infinity norm approach. The suite of tools developed enable us to determine if the satisfaction of hard constraints is feasible by identifying critical combinations of uncertain parameters. Since this practice is performed without sampling or partitioning the parameter space, the resulting assessments of robustness are analytically verifiable. Strategies that enable the comparison of the robustness of competing design alternatives, the approximation of the robust design space, and the systematic search for designs with improved robustness characteristics are also proposed. Since the problem formulation is generic and the solution methods only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, the tools developed are applicable to a broad range of problems in several disciplines.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Predicting Production Costs for Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This paper outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are soared according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this paper is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool.

Bao, Han P.↗

Combining Simulation and Optimization to Derive Operating Policies for a Concentrating Solar Power Plant

Optimizing short-term decisions over a rolling horizon and/or using deterministic penalties to capture system stochasticity can lead to myopic policies that fail to consider unplanned events and their long-term adverse effects. We present a methodology that integrates an off-line optimization model with a simulation procedure to determine the profitability of different operating strategies; specifically, the latter is used to generate additional constraints for the former when failures occur according to system component operating lifetimes that (i) are subject to exogenous uncertainty, and (ii) may degrade more quickly under specific operating conditions. We use the feedback provided by the simulation model in a parametric analysis to obtain penalties that can be used in short-term operations scheduling to maximize the long-term revenues obtained by the optimization model. We apply this research to a concentrating solar power plant; our results show that the methodology can be used to choose an operating policy that balances maximizing profit while accounting for maintenance costs. Integrating the optimization model with a simulation procedure reveals that aggressive prices for cycling yield about 55% fewer startups and 30% fewer failures compared to using a more typical start-up operating strategy, and can save hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars in repair costs over the lifetime of the plant.

concentrating solar power↗

Model for Vortex Ring State Influence on Rotorcraft Flight Dynamics

The influence of vortex ring state (VRS) on rotorcraft flight dynamics is investigated, specifically the vertical velocity drop of helicopters and the roll-off of tiltrotors encountering VRS. The available wind tunnel and flight test data for rotors in vortex ring state are reviewed. Test data for axial flow, non-axial flow, two rotors, unsteadiness, and vortex ring state boundaries are described and discussed. Based on the available measured data, a VRS model is developed. The VRS model is a parametric extension of momentum theory for calculation of the mean inflow of a rotor, hence suitable for simple calculations and real-time simulations. This inflow model is primarily defined in terms of the stability boundary of the aircraft motion. Calculations of helicopter response during VRS encounter were performed, and good correlation is shown with the vertical velocity drop measured in flight tests. Calculations of tiltrotor response during VRS encounter were performed, showing the roll-off behavior characteristic of tiltrotors. Hence it is possible, using a model of the mean inflow of an isolated rotor, to explain the basic behavior of both helicopters and tiltrotors in vortex ring state.

Johnson, Wayne↗

Model for Vortex Ring State Influence on Rotorcraft Flight Dynamics

The influence of vortex ring state (VRS) on rotorcraft flight dynamics is investigated, specifically the vertical velocity drop of helicopters and the roll-off of tiltrotors encountering VRS. The available wind tunnel and flight test data for rotors in vortex ring state are reviewed. Test data for axial flow, nonaxial flow, two rotors, unsteadiness, and vortex ring state boundaries are described and discussed. Based on the available measured data, a VRS model is developed. The VRS model is a parametric extension of momentum theory for calculation of the mean inflow of a rotor, hence suitable for simple calculations and real-time simulations. This inflow model is primarily defined in terms of the stability boundary of the aircraft motion. Calculations of helicopter response during VRS encounter were performed, and good correlation is shown with the vertical velocity drop measured in flight tests. Calculations of tiltrotor response during VRS encounter were performed, showing the roll-off behavior characteristic of tiltrotors. Hence it is possible, using a model of the mean inflow of an isolated rotor, to explain the basic behavior of both helicopters and tiltrotors in vortex ring state.

VORTEX RING STATE↗

Extended parametric representation of compressor fans and turbines. Volume 2: Part user's manual (parametric turbine)

A turbine modeling technique has been developed which will enable the user to obtain consistent and rapid off-design performance from design point input. This technique is applicable to both axial and radial flow turbine with flow sizes ranging from about one pound per second to several hundred pounds per second. The axial flow turbines may or may not include variable geometry in the first stage nozzle. A user-specified option will also permit the calculation of design point cooling flow levels and corresponding changes in efficiency for the axial flow turbines. The modeling technique has been incorporated into a time-sharing program in order to facilitate its use. Because this report contains a description of the input output data, values of typical inputs, and example cases, it is suitable as a user's manual. This report is the second of a three volume set. The titles of the three volumes are as follows: (1) Volume 1 CMGEN USER's Manual (Parametric Compressor Generator); (2) Volume 2 PART USER's Manual (Parametric Turbine); (3) Volume 3 MODFAN USER's Manual (Parametric Modulation Flow Fan).

Coverse, G. L.↗

Poisson Log-Normal Process for Count Data Prediction

Modeling count data is important in physics and other scientific disciplines, where measurements often involve discrete, non-negative quantities such as photon or neutrino detection events. Traditional parametric approaches can be trained to generate integer-count predictions but may struggle with capturing complex, non-linear dependencies often observed in the data. Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a robust non-parametric alternative to modeling continuous data; however, it cannot generate integer outputs. We propose the Poisson Log-Normal (PoLoN) process, a framework that employs GP to model Poisson log-rates. As in GP regression, our approach relies on the correlations between data points captured via GP kernel structure rather than explicit functional parameterizations. We demonstrate that the PoLoN predictive distribution is Poisson-LogNormal and provide an algorithm for optimizing kernel hyperparameters. Furthermore, we adapt the PoLoN approach to the problem of detecting weak localized signals superimposed on a smoothly varying background - a task of considerable interest in many areas of science and engineering. Our framework allows us to predict the strength, location and width of the detected signals. We evaluate PoLoN's performance using both synthetic and real-world datasets, including the open dataset from CERN which was used to detect the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results indicate that the PoLoN process can be used as a non-parametric alternative for analyzing, predicting, and extracting signals from integer-valued data.

Saha, Anushka [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗

The Vibration Ring

The vibration ring was conceived as a driveline damping device to prevent structure-borne noise in machines. It has the appearance of a metal ring, and can be installed between any two driveline components like an ordinary mechanical spacer. Damping is achieved using a ring-shaped piezoelectric stack that is poled in the axial direction and connected to an electrical shunt circuit. Surrounding the stack is a metal structure, called the compression cage, which squeezes the stack along its poled axis when excited by radial driveline forces. The stack in turn generates electrical energy, which is either dissipated or harvested using the shunt circuit. Removing energy from the system creates a net damping effect. The vibration ring is much stiffer than traditional damping devices, which allows it to be used in a driveline without disrupting normal operation. In phase 1 of this NASA Seedling Fund project, a combination of design and analysis was used to examine the feasibility of this concept. Several designs were evaluated using solid modeling, finite element analysis, and by creating prototype hardware. Then an analytical model representing the coupled electromechanical response was formulated in closed form. The model was exercised parametrically to examine the stiffness and loss factor spectra of the vibration ring, as well as simulate its damping effect in the context of a simplified driveline model. The results of this work showed that this is a viable mechanism for driveline damping, and provided several lessons for continued development.

Asnani, Vivake M.↗

Coupled 2-dimensional cascade theory for noise and unsteady aerodynamics of blade row interaction in turbofans. Volume 1: Theory development and parametric studies

Typical analytical models for interaction between rotor and stator in a turbofan analyze the effect of wakes from the rotor impinging on the stator, producing unsteady loading, and thereby generating noise. Reflection/transmission characteristics of the rotor are sometimes added in a separate calculation. In those models, there is a one-to-one relationship between wake harmonics and noise harmonics; that is, the BPF (blade passing frequency) wake harmonic causes only the BPF noise harmonic, etc. This report presents a more complete model in which flow tangency boundary conditions are satisfied on two cascades in relative motion for several harmonics simultaneously. By an extension of S.N. Smith's code for two dimensional flat plate cascades, the noise generation/frequency scattering/blade row reflection problem is solved in a single matrix inversion. It is found that the BPF harmonic excitation of the stator scatters considerable energy in the higher BPF harmonics due to relative motion between the blade rows. Furthermore, when swirl between the rotor and stator is modeled, a 'mode trapping' effect occurs which explains observations on fans operating at rotational speeds below BFP cuton: the BPF mode amplifies between blade rows by multiple reflections but cannot escape to the inlet and exit ducts. However, energy scattered into higher harmonics does propagate and dominates the spectrum at two and three times BPF. This report presents the complete derivation of the theory, comparison with a previous (more limited) coupled rotor/stator interaction theory due to Kaji and Okazaki, exploration of the mode trapping phenomenon, and parametric studies showing the effects of vane/blade ratio and rotor/stator interaction. For generality, the analysis applies to stages where the rotor is either upstream or downstream of the stator and to counter rotation stages. The theory has been coded in a FORTRAN program called CUP2D, documented in Volume 2 of this report. It is concluded that the new features of this analysis - unsteady coupling, frequency scattering, and flow turning between rotor and stator - have a profound effect on noise generation caused by rotor/stator interaction. Treating rotors and stators as isolated cascades is not adequate for noise analysis and prediction.

Hanson, Donald B.↗

GMRES with embedded ensemble propagation for the efficient solution of parametric linear systems in uncertainty quantification of computational models

In a previous work, embedded ensemble propagation was proposed to improve the efficiency of sampling-based uncertainty quantification methods of computational models on emerging computational architectures. It consists of simultaneously evaluating the model for a subset of samples together, instead of evaluating them individually. A first approach introduced to solve parametric linear systems with ensemble propagation is ensemble reduction. In Krylov methods for example, this reduction consists in coupling the samples together using an inner product that sums the sample contributions. Ensemble reduction has the advantages of being able to use optimized implementations of BLAS functions and having a stopping criterion which involves only one scalar. However, the reduction potentially decreases the rate of convergence due to the gathering of the spectra of the samples. In this paper, we investigate a second approach: ensemble propagation without ensemble reduction in the case of GMRES. This second approach solves each sample simultaneously but independently to improve the convergence compared to ensemble reduction. This raises two new issues which are solved in this paper: the fact that optimized implementations of BLAS functions cannot be used anymore and that ensemble divergence, whereby individual samples within an ensemble must follow different code execution paths, can occur. We tackle those issues by implementing a high-performing ensemble GEMV and by using masks. The proposed ensemble GEMV leads to a similar cost per GMRES iteration for both approaches, i.e. with and without reduction. For illustration, we study the performances of the new linear solver in the context of a mesh tying problem. Furthermore, this example demonstrates improved ensemble propagation speed-up without reduction.

BLAS↗

Viscosity of rock-ice mixtures and applications to the evolution of icy satellites

Theory and experiments are used to establish lower and upper bounds on the ratio of actual viscosity to pure ice viscosity for a suspension of rock particles in a water ice matrix. A rheological model for rock-ice mixtures is described, establishing bounds for the range of possible viscosity enhancements provided by a suspension of silicate spheres in an ice matrix. A parametrized thermal convection model is described and used to determine a criterion for criticality, defined as the heat flow and/or silicate volume fraction for which the satellite temperature profile intercepts the melting curve of water ice. The consequences of achieving this critical state are examined, and it is shown that under certain circumstances a 'runaway' differentiation can occur in which the silicates settle to form a core and extensive melting of water ice takes place, the latent heat being supplied by the gravitational energy of differentiation. A possible application of these results to Ganymede and Callisto is described.

Friedson, A. J.↗