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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Trustworthy Physics-Informed Deep Learning for Predictive Scientific Computing

This project has developed powerful trustworthy physics-informed deep learning (TPiDL) models and methods to fundamentally enhance the scale and power of computational modeling in the scientific and engineering domains. Deep learning (DL) has radically advanced the state-of-the-art in machine learning, computer vision, natural language processing, and also scientific computing. Nevertheless, progress has been driven almost entirely by empirical observations, hacks, and tricks. Under the support of this project, the graph operator learning tools and advanced trustworthy physical informed neural networks have been developed. In addition, stochastic gradient replica-exchange Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms have been designed to quantify the uncertainties and speed up the training of large-scale neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

There is rising interest in probabilistic forecasting to mitigate risks from solar power uncertainty, but the numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensembles readily available to system operators are often biased and underdispersed. We propose a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) post-processing method suitable for forecasting power from utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants at multiple time horizons up to at least the day-ahead timescale. BMA is a kernel dressing technique for NWP ensembles in which the forecast is a weighted sum of member-specific probability density functions. We tailor BMA for utility-scale PV forecasting by modeling power clipping at the AC inverter rating and advance the theory of BMA with a new beta kernel parameterization that accommodates theoretical constraints not previously addressed. BMA is demonstrated for a case study of 11 utility-scale PV plants in Texas, forecasting at hourly resolution for the complete year 2018. BMA's mixture-model approach mitigates underdispersion of the raw ensemble to significantly improve forecast calibration, while consistently outperforming an ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) parametric approach from the literature. At 4-hour lead time, the BMA post-processing achieves continuous ranked probability skill scores of 2--36% over the raw ensemble, with consistent performance at multiple lead times suitable for power system operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modular performance prediction for scientific workflows using Machine Learning

Scientific workflows provide an opportunity for declarative computational experiment design in an intuitive and efficient way. A distributed workflow is typically executed on a variety of resources, and it uses a variety of computational algorithms or tools to achieve the desired outcomes. Such a variety imposes additional complexity in scheduling these workflows on large scale computers. As computation becomes more distributed, insights into expected workload that a workflow presents become critical for effective resource allocation. In this paper, we present a modular framework that leverages Machine Learning for creating precise performance predictions of a workflow. The central idea is to partition a workflow in such a way that makes the task of forecasting each atomic unit manageable and gives us a way to combine the individual predictions efficiently. We recognize a combination of an executable and a specific physical resource as a single module. This gives us a handle to characterize workload and machine power as a single unit of prediction. Overall, our modular technique of creating atomic modules and deployment of longest-path approach to estimate workflow performance, allows the framework to adapt to highly complex nested directed acyclic workflows and scale to new scenarios, since it does not make assumptions of underlying workflow structure. We present performance estimation results of independent workflow modules executed on the XSEDE SDSC Comet cluster using various Machine Learning algorithms. The results provide insights into the behavior and effectiveness of different algorithms in the context of scientific workflow performance prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

MBX V1.2: Accelerating Data-Driven Many-Body Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The MBX software provides an advanced platform for molecular dynamics simulations, leveraging state-of-the-art MB-pol and MB-nrg data-driven many-body potential energy functions. Developed over the past decade, these potential energy functions integrate physics-based and machine-learned many-body terms trained on electronic structure data calculated at the "gold standard" coupled-cluster level of theory. Recent advancements in MBX have focused on optimizing its performance, resulting in the release of MBX v1.2. While the inherently many-body nature of MB-pol and MB-nrg ensures high accuracy, it poses computational challenges. MBX v1.2 addresses these challenges with significant performance improvements, including enhanced parallelism that fully harnesses the power of modern multicore CPUs. In conclusion, these advancements enable simulations on nanosecond time scales for condensed-phase systems, significantly expanding the scope of high-accuracy, predictive simulations of complex molecular systems powered by data-driven many-body potential energy functions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

The halo light-cone catalogues of ABACUSSUMMIT

We describe a method for generating halo catalogues on the light-cone using the AbacusSummit suite of N-body simulations. The main application of these catalogues is the construction of realistic mock galaxy catalogues and weak lensing maps on the sky. Our algorithm associates the haloes from a set of coarsely spaced snapshots with their positions at the time of light-cone crossing by matching halo particles to on-the-fly light-cone particles. It then records the halo and particle information into an easily accessible product, which we call the AbacusSummit halo light-cone catalogues. Our recommended use of this product is in the halo mass regime of M halo > 2.1 x 10 11 M ⊙ h -1 for the base resolution simulations, i.e. haloes containing at least 100 particles, where the interpolated halo properties are most reliable. To test the validity of the obtained catalogues, we perform various visual inspections and consistency checks. In particular, we construct galaxy mock catalogues of emission-line galaxies (ELGs) at z ~ 1 by adopting a modified version of the AbacusHOD script, which builds on the standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) method by including various extensions. We find that the multipoles of the autocorrelation function are consistent with the predictions from the full-box snapshot, implicitly validating our algorithm. In addition, we compute and output CMB convergence maps and find that the auto- and cross-power spectrum agrees with the theoretical prediction at the sub-per-cent level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ensemble transfer learning for the prediction of anti-cancer drug response

Abstract Transfer learning, which transfers patterns learned on a source dataset to a related target dataset for constructing prediction models, has been shown effective in many applications. In this paper, we investigate whether transfer learning can be used to improve the performance of anti-cancer drug response prediction models. Previous transfer learning studies for drug response prediction focused on building models to predict the response of tumor cells to a specific drug treatment. We target the more challenging task of building general prediction models that can make predictions for both new tumor cells and new drugs. Uniquely, we investigate the power of transfer learning for three drug response prediction applications including drug repurposing, precision oncology, and new drug development, through different data partition schemes in cross-validation. We extend the classic transfer learning framework through ensemble and demonstrate its general utility with three representative prediction algorithms including a gradient boosting model and two deep neural networks. The ensemble transfer learning framework is tested on benchmark in vitro drug screening datasets. The results demonstrate that our framework broadly improves the prediction performance in all three drug response prediction applications with all three prediction algorithms.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spectral distortion anisotropy from inflation for primordial black holes

Single-field inflationary models that seek to greatly enhance small-scale power in order to form primordial black holes predict both a squeezed bispectrum that is enhanced by this small-scale power and a potentially detectable enhancement of cosmic microwave background (CMB) spectral distortions. Despite this combination, spectral distortion anisotropy on CMB scales remains small since the squeezed bispectrum represents an unobservable modulation of the scale rather than local amplitude for the short-wavelength acoustic power that dissipates and forms the μ spectral distortion. Furthermore, the leading-order amplitude effect comes from the local modulation of acoustic dissipation at the beginning of the μ epoch at the end of thermalization by a long-wavelength mode that is correlated with CMB anisotropy itself. Compensating factors from the suppression by the square of the ratio the comoving horizon at thermalization to the smallest detectable primary CMB scales (~0.0005) and maximal allowed enhancement of μ (~5000) leaves a signal in the μT cross spectrum that is still well beyond the capabilities of PIXIE or LiteBIRD space missions due to sensitivity and resolution while remaining much larger than in single-field slow-roll inflation and potentially observable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surfactant-Specific AI-Driven Molecular Design: Integrating Generative Models, Predictive Modeling, and Reinforcement Learning for Tailored Surfactant Synthesis

Molecular design is a critical aspect of various scientific and industrial fields, where the properties of molecules hold significant importance. In this study, a 3-fold methodology design is presented that leverages the power of generative artificial intelligence (AI), predictive modeling, and reinforcement learning to create tailored molecules with desired properties. This model synergistically combines deep learning techniques with Self-Referencing Embedded Strings (SELFIES) molecular representation to build a generative model that generates valid molecules and a graphical neural network model that accurately forecasts molecular properties. The Variational Autoencoder (VAE) coupled with reinforcement learning helps refine molecule generation based on targeted attributes. Data from an experimental study involving surfactants were used to test the framework. A validation of the structural integrity of the molecules generated was conducted, and Tanimoto similarities were used to quantify the similarity and diversity between the original and generated molecular structures. Also, saliency maps for the generated surfactants were produced to identify the features explaining the property values. Lastly, molecular dynamics simulations were used to validate the stability of the generated molecules. The results showed that the proposed framework can effectively produce valid molecules within the set property threshold value.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmark of the KGMf with a coupled Boltzmann equation solver

The Kinetic Global Model framework (KGMf) is an open-source general-purpose global model (spatially averaged) simulation code developed to explore the reaction kinetics and pathways in plasma discharge systems. It contains species continuity and electron energy balance equations, with a time-dependent evaluated electron energy distribution function (EEDF) for electron impact reactions. The EEDF is utilized to determine the rate coefficients for electron impact reactions, which can have profound impact on the temporal evolutions of plasma parameters. Previously, the EEDF was commonly assumed as Maxwellian or an analytical function of the effective electron temperature. In this work, the KGMf is coupled with a Boltzmann equation (BE) solver to self-consistently compute the EEDF. The EEDF evolution frequency is determined based on relative changes of the reduced electric field. The KGMf is benchmarked with the ZDPlasKin code based on high-pressure low-temperature argon plasma discharge cases. Additionally, the temporal evolutions of reduced electric field, electron temperature, EEDF, reaction rates, and species densities, are obtained and compared under different discharge conditions, showing good agreement between the KGMf and the ZDPlasKin simulations. The application of the KGMf for predicting breakdown times in high power microwave discharges is also presented, which shows qualitative agreement with particle-in-cell simulations. The KGMf can be further applied for more complicated plasma discharge systems, where the reaction kinetics are more intricate (e.g., plasma-assisted combustion systems).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Covalent inhibition of hAChE by organophosphates causes homodimer dissociation through long-range allosteric effects

Acetylcholinesterase (EC 3.1.1.7), a key acetylcholine-hydrolyzing enzyme in cholinergic neurotransmission, is present in a variety of states in situ, including monomers, C-terminally disulfide-linked homodimers, homotetramers, and up to three tetramers covalently attached to structural subunits. Could oligomerization that ensures high local concentrations of catalytic sites necessary for efficient neurotransmission be affected by environmental factors? Using small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and cryo-EM, we demonstrate that homodimerization of recombinant monomeric human acetylcholinesterase (hAChE) in solution occurs through a C-terminal four-helix bundle at micromolar concentrations. We show that diethylphosphorylation of the active serine in the catalytic gorge or isopropylmethylphosphonylation by the R P enantiomer of sarin promotes a 10-fold increase in homodimer dissociation. We also demonstrate the dissociation of organophosphate (OP)-conjugated dimers is reversed by structurally diverse oximes 2PAM, HI6, or RS194B, as demonstrated by SAXS of diethylphosphoryl-hAChE. However, binding of oximes to the native ligand-free hAChE, binding of high-affinity reversible ligands, or formation of an S P -sarin-hAChE conjugate had no effect on homodimerization. Dissociation monitored by time-resolved SAXS occurs in milliseconds, consistent with rates of hAChE covalent inhibition. OP-induced dissociation was not observed in the SAXS profiles of the double-mutant Y337A/F338A, where the active center gorge volume is larger than in wildtype hAChE. These observations suggest a key role of the tightly packed acyl pocket in allosterically triggered OP-induced dimer dissociation, with the potential for local reduction of acetylcholine-hydrolytic power in situ. Computational models predict allosteric correlated motions extending from the acyl pocket toward the four-helix bundle dimerization interface 25 Å away.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Decoding the proton’s gluonic density with lattice QCD-informed machine learning

We present a first machine learning-based decoding of the gluonic structure of the proton from lattice QCD using a variational autoencoder inverse mapper (VAIM). Harnessing the power of generative AI, we predict the parton distribution function (PDF) of the gluon given information on the reduced pseudo-Ioffe-time distributions (RpITDs) as calculated from an ensemble with lattice spacing a ≈ 0.09 fm and a pion mass of M π ≈ 310 MeV. The resulting gluon PDF is consistent with phenomenological global fits within uncertainties, particularly in the intermediate-to-high-x region where lattice data are most constraining. A subsequent correlation analysis confirms that the VAIM learns a meaningful latent representation, highlighting the potential of generative AI to bridge lattice QCD and phenomenological extractions within a unified analysis framework.

Gluon parton distribution function↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reactive Transport Modeling of Hydrogen Production from Serpentinization of Olivine

Hydrogen production from serpentinization of ultramafic rocks represents a promising natural pathway for generating carbon-free energy, yet its kinetics and controlling factors remain incompletely understood. A key challenge in advancing serpentinization research lies in the heterogeneity of porosity and permeability in rocks, which leads to nonuniform fluid velocity fields, as well as uncertainties in estimating reactive surface area and identifying appropriate mineral reaction equilibria. Additional complexities arise from the role of dissolved SiO 2 , Fe 2+ /Fe 3+ partitioning, and the limited effect of pH variations within the strongly alkaline regime on hydrogen yields. These challenges hinder straightforward extrapolation from laboratory tests to practical applications of hydrogen production from natural rocks. Here, in this work, we address these questions using a simulation-based reactive transport modeling framework calibrated against controlled laboratory experiments reported elsewhere. The model couples geochemical kinetics, multiphase flow, and mineralogical feedbacks, enabling systematic evaluation of how surface area, dissolved silica concentration, Fe redox state, temperature, and pressure govern serpentinization and H2 generation. We find that surface area exerts the strongest control on reaction rates and hydrogen yields, while Fe 2+ /Fe 3+ ratios act as secondary modulators. Elevated dissolved silica concentrations suppress hydrogen production but accelerate serpentine precipitation, whereas increasing pH beyond 12 within the strongly alkaline regime produces only marginal gains. Finally, we demonstrate that integrating targeted experiments with calibrated simulations offers a powerful and efficient approach for predicting hydrogen yields and assessing parameter trade-offs in industrial-scale applications. This integration can substantially reduce the experimental burden while improving predictive capability, thereby enhancing both the mechanistic understanding and the practical feasibility of hydrogen production from serpentinization.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Perspective on Sustainable Computational Chemistry Software Development and Integration

The power of quantum chemistry to predict the ground and excited state properties of complex chemical systems has driven the development of computational quantum chemistry software, integrating advances in theory, applied mathematics, and computer science. The emergence of new computational paradigms associated with exascale technologies also poses significant challenges that require a flexible forward strategy to take full advantage of existing and forthcoming computational resources. In this context, the sustainability and interoperability of computational chemistry software development are among the most pressing issues. In this perspective, we discuss software infrastructure needs and investments with an eye to fully utilize exascale resources and provide unique computational tools for next-generation science problems and scientific discoveries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Localized Geomagnetic Disturbances in Global MHD: Physics and Numerics

One of the prominent effects of space weather is the formation of rapid geomagnetic field variations on Earth's surface driven by the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. These geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) cause geomagnetically induced currents to run through ground conducting systems. In particular, localized GMDs (LGMDs) can be high amplitude and can have an effect on scale sizes less than 100 km, making them hazardous to power grids and difficult to predict. In this study, we examine the ability of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to reproduce LGMDs in the 7 September 2017 event using both existing and new metrics to quantify the success of the model against observation. We show that the high-resolution SWMF can reproduce LGMDs driven by ionospheric sources, but struggles to reproduce LGMDs driven by substorm effects. We calculate the global maxima of the magnetic fluctuations to show instances when the SWMF captures LGMDs at the correct times but not the correct locations. To remedy these shortcomings we suggest model developments that will directly impact the ability of the SWMF to reproduce LGMDs, most importantly updating the ionospheric conductance calculation from empirical to physics-based.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A map of single-phase high-entropy alloys

High-entropy alloys have exhibited unusual materials properties. The stability of equimolar single-phase solid solution of five or more elements is supposedly rare and identifying the existence of such alloys has been challenging because of the vast chemical space of possible combinations. Herein, based on high-throughput density-functional theory calculations, we construct a chemical map of single-phase equimolar high-entropy alloys by investigating over 658,000 equimolar quinary alloys through a binary regular solid-solution model. We identify 30,201 potential single-phase equimolar alloys (5% of the possible combinations) forming mainly in body-centered cubic structures. We unveil the chemistries that are likely to form high-entropy alloys, and identify the complex interplay among mixing enthalpy, intermetallics formation, and melting point that drives the formation of these solid solutions. We demonstrate the power of our method by predicting the existence of two new high-entropy alloys, i.e. the body-centered cubic AlCoMnNiV and the face-centered cubic CoFeMnNiZn, which are successfully synthesized.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Acidity of surface-infiltrated binary oxides as a sensitive descriptor of oxygen exchange kinetics in mixed conducting oxides

Improving the kinetics of O 2 reduction on oxide surfaces is critical in many energy and fuel conversion technologies. Here we show that the acidity scale for binary oxides is a powerful descriptor for tuning and predicting oxygen surface exchange kinetics on mixed conducting oxides. By infiltrating a selection of binary oxides from strongly basic (Li 2 O) to strongly acidic (SiO 2 ) onto the surface of Pr 0.1 Ce 0.9 O 2-δ samples, it was possible to vary the chemical surface exchange coefficient k chem by 6 orders of magnitude, with basic oxides such as Li 2 O increasing k chem by nearly 1,000 times, with surface concentrations as low as 50 ppm impacting k chem . Strikingly, although the pre-exponential of k chem scales linearly with the acidity of the infiltrated binary oxide, there is nearly no change in the activation energy. Here, the origin of these dramatic changes is proposed to arise from the systematic increase in electron concentration at the Pr 0.1 Ce 0.9 O 2-δ surface with the decreasing acidity of the infiltrated binary oxide.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗