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At least 685 records · Page 38

CO 2 Fertilization Confounds Tree-Ring Records of Regional Hydroclimate at Northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Understanding historical hydroclimate change during the last millennium is of fundamental importance for forecasting and evaluating the regional hydrologic cycle and water security under global warming1-3. Here, we compared observations of tree-ring stable isotope ratios ($δ$ 13 C and $δ$ 18 O), tree-ring widths, lake sediment estimates of regional hydroclimate and glacier advance and retreat for northeastern QTP. Our composite isotope record and tree-ring widths indicated similar hydroclimate dynamics throughout the last millennium until the latter half of the 20th century, after which they diverged with the tree-ring widths indicating an unprecedented wet period whilst the isotopic results, sediment proxies and glaciers demonstrated a drying pattern. Atmospheric CO 2 rise allowed increases in canopy-scale intrinsic water-use efficiency and growth, causing tree-ring widths to underestimate overwhelming the regional drying signal in the growth record. Precipitation inferred only rom tree-ring width may be overestimated due to atmospheric CO 2 fertilization over the last century; this bias should be considered in tree-ring width reconstructions of palaeoclimate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Seismic Velocity Change Patterns Along the San Jacinto Fault Zone Following the 2010 M 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah and M 5.4 Collins Valley Earthquakes

We study temporal changes of seismic velocity (d v /v ) in the crust around the central section of the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), Southern California. Focusing on a 200-day-long period around April 2010, our analysis resolves two tens-of-days-long successive episodes of reduced velocities that are compatible with signals from the long base strainmeter at the Piñon Flat Observatory. The imaged d v /v sequences are proxies for evolving material properties in the crust surrounding the SJFZ. The temporal and the spatial coincidence of the observed d v /v patterns with the occurrence of two proposed creep episodes suggest that the relative velocity changes reflect the response to deep creep events that follow the M 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake and the M 5.4 Collins Valley earthquake that occurred 94 days later on the San Jacinto fault. The main slip during the creep events was proposed to occur below 10-km depth. Wavefield properties suggest sensitivity to medium changes above this source zone, in the top 10 km. The distribution of the obtained d v /v reductions shows a strong difference between large values to the west of the SJFZ and significantly smaller amplitudes to the east. The similarity to the seasonal velocity change pattern implies that the results are likely controlled by the contrast of mechanical properties across the fault, such as fault-perpendicular shear modulus variations. Our analysis extends the spectrum of methods that can be used to study earthquake interaction, fault zone rheology and dynamics, triggering, and the interplay between creep episodes and earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Effect of Internal Variability on Ocean Temperature Adjustment in a Low-Resolution CESM Initial Condition Ensemble

Due to its large heat capacity and circulation, the ocean contributes significantly to global heat uptake, global heat transport, spatial temperature patterns, and variability. Quantifying ocean heat uptake across different temporal and spatial scales is important to quantify Earth's climate response to anthropogenic warming. Here we evaluate ocean adjustment time scales from two different fully coupled climate model ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. Both ensembles use the same model version, anthropogenic and natural forcings, and coupling configurations, but we initialize the ensembles in two different ways: (1) sampling joint internal variability of the ocean–atmosphere system (unique atmosphere and ocean conditions) and (2) sampling the internal variability of the atmosphere only (unique atmosphere, identical ocean conditions). Uncertainty due to internal variability is used as a proxy to quantify the time scales of ocean temperature adjustment at different depths and basins in Community Earth System Model. Time scales of equilibration are longer in the deep ocean than the upper ocean, highlighting the vertical structure of dynamic adjustment. The Atlantic equilibrates on shorter time scales (82 years above 1,000 m, 140 years below 1,000 m) relative to the Pacific (106 years above 1,000 m, 444 years below 1,000 m) in Community Earth System Model due to the large North Atlantic Deep Water formation and strong overturning circulation in the Atlantic. These results have broad implications for analyzing internal climate variability, ocean adjustment, and drift in global coupled model experiments and intercomparisons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Retrievals of Riming and Snow Density From Vertically Pointing Doppler Radars

Retrievals of ice and snow are made from Ka- and W-band zenith-pointing Doppler radars at Hyytiälä, Finland, during the snow experiment component of the Biogenic Aerosols: Effects on Clouds and Climate (2014) field campaign. In a novel optimal estimation retrieval, mean Doppler velocity is exploited to retrieve a density factor parameter, which modulates the mass, shape, terminal velocity, and backscatter cross sections of ice particles. In a case study including aggregate snow and graupel we find that snow rate and ensemble mean ice density can be retrieved to within 50% of in situ measurements at the surface using dual-frequency Doppler radar retrievals. While Doppler measurements are essential to the retrieval of particle density, the dual-frequency ratio provides a strong constraint on particle size. The retrieved density factor is strongly correlated with liquid water path, indicating that riming is the primary process by which the density factor is modulated. Using liquid water path as a proxy for riming, profiles classified as unrimed snow, rimed snow, and graupel exhibit distinct features characteristic of aggregation and riming processes, suggesting the potential to make estimates of process rates from these retrievals. We discuss the potential application of the technique to future satellite missions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Initiation and Development of Wetlands in Southern Florida Karst Landscape Associated With Accumulation of Organic Matter and Vegetation Evolution

Biological processes can exert important controls on geomorphic evolution in karst landscapes, because carbonate mineral dissolution is augmented and spatially focused by the production of CO 2 and biogenic acids from organic matter (OM) decomposition. In Big Cypress National Preserve (BICY) in southwest Florida (USA), depressional wetlands embedded in a mosaic of pine uplands exhibit regular patterning. To understand the impact of OM decomposition as well as different OM sources on carbonate dissolution and landscape patterning, we measured bulk OM property and biomarker proxies (fatty acids and lignin phenols) in different zones (center vs. edge) of the depressional wetlands. We also constructed age profiles of sediment accretion and pattern genesis using 210Pb activities and compound- specific radiocarbon analysis (CSRA) of long-chain fatty acids. Bulk OM and biomarker data indicate rapid OM accumulation in wetland centers resulting from high primary production and near permanent inundation, in contrast to negligible OM accumulation at wetland edges. Age discontinuities suggest episodic periods of near complete OM loss due to decomposition and/or fire. Based on CSRA, landscape patterning likely initiated in the mid-to-late Holocene, with wetlands at slight higher elevation initiated earlier than wetlands at lower elevation. Bulk stable isotope and lignin phenol biomarkers indicate wetland vegetation was initially dominated by herbaceous species and shifted to woody dominated vegetation as landscape hydrology adjusted to changing precipitation. The rate of weathering is likely impacted by hydrological conditions, vegetation dynamics and environmental perturbations like precipitation and fires, suggesting that this karst landscape is a manifestation of complex ecosystem feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probing Slow Earthquakes With Deep Learning

Abstract Slow earthquakes may trigger failure on neighboring locked faults that are stressed sufficiently to break, and slow slip patterns may evolve before a nearby great earthquake. However, even in the clearest cases such as Cascadia, slow earthquakes and associated tremor have only been observed in intermittent and discrete bursts. By training a convolutional neural network to detect known tremor on a single seismic station in Cascadia, we isolate and identify tremor and slip preceding and following known larger slow events. The deep neural network can be used for the detection of quasi‐continuous tremor, providing a proxy that quantifies the slow slip rate. Furthermore, the model trained in Cascadia recognizes tremor in other subduction zones and also along the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, suggesting a universality of waveform characteristics and source processes, as posited from experiments and theory.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Temperature Dependence of Plasmaspheric Ion Composition

We assess a database of Dynamics Explorer-1 (DE-1) Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer densities and temperatures to yield the first explicit measure of how cold ion concentration depends on temperature. We discover that cold H + and He + concentrations have very weak dependence on temperature, but cold O+ ion concentration increases steeply as these ions become warmer. We exhibit how this result can aid in analyzing composition data from other satellites without spacecraft potential mitigation, by applying the result to an example using data from the Van Allen Probes mission. Measurement of light ion concentrations above 1 electron volt (eV) are a reasonable proxy for the concentrations of colder (eV) ions. Warmer O + ion concentrations may be extrapolated to colder temperatures using our fit to the statistical distribution versus temperature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Mooring and Seafloor Pressure End Point Measurements at the Southern Entrance of the Solomon Sea: Subseasonal to Interannual Flow Variability

Variability of the flow across the Solomon Sea's southern entrance was examined using end point subsurface moorings and seafloor pressure sensors, reconstructed velocity profiles based on satellite-derived surface velocity and bottom pressure-derived subsurface velocity, and 1993–2017 proxy volume transport based on satellite altimetry. The reconstructed velocity correctly represents the fluctuating surface flow and subsurface core providing a high-frequency continuous observing system for this sea. The mean equatorward volume transport over 0- to 500-m depth layer is 15.2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3/s) during July 2012 to May 2017. The measurements resolve the full spectrum of the volume transport including energetic subseasonal variability that fluctuates by as much as 25 Sv over one week. At low-frequency timescales, the study finds that linear Rossby waves forced by Ekman pumping in the interior of the Pacific influence not only seasonal fluctuations as found by previous studies but also interannual variability. As found previously, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation highly influences interannual volume transport. During the 2015/2016 El Niño, observations show the seasonal cycle to be suppressed from the second half of 2014, prior to the mature phase of the El Niño, to September 2016 along with an increase in across-transect transport. At subseasonal timescales, local Ekman pumping and remote wind stress curl are responsible for a third of the subseasonal variance. Finally, the study highlights the importance of high-frequency observations at the southern entrance of the Solomon Sea and the ability of a linear Rossby model to represent the low-frequency variability of the transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Grain Size Variations in the Murray Formation: Stratigraphic Evidence for Changing Depositional Environments in Gale Crater, Mars

The lowermost exposure of the Murray formation in Gale crater, Mars, was interpreted as sediment deposited in an ancient lake based on data collected by the Curiosity rover. Constraining the stratigraphic extent and duration of this environment has important implications for the paleohydrology of Gale. Insights into early Martian environments and paleofluid flow velocity can be obtained from grain size in rocks. Visual inspection of grain size is not always available for rocks investigated at field sites on Mars due to limited image coverage. But grain sizes can also be estimated from the Gini Index Mean Score, a grain-size proxy that uses point-to-point chemical variations in ChemCam Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy data. Here, new Gini Index Mean Score results indicate that the Murray formation is dominated by mudstones with grains smaller than the spatial resolution of all rover cameras. Intervals of fine to coarse sandstone also are present, some of which are verified using observations of grain size and sedimentary structures in associated images. Overall, results demonstrate that most of the Murray consists of mudstone, suggesting settling of grains from suspension in low energy depositional environments such as lakes. Some of the mudstones contain desiccation cracks indicating periods of drying with a lowering of lake water level. However, beds and lenses of cross-bedded sandstones are common at specific intervals, suggesting episodes of fluvial and possibly eolian deposition. The persistence of lacustrine deposits interspersed with fluvial deposits suggests that liquid water was sustained on the Martian surface for tens of thousands to millions of years.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Connected Isotopic Water Cycle in the Community Earth System Model Version 1

Abstract Because of the pervasive role of water in the Earth system, the relative abundances of stable isotopologues of water are valuable for understanding atmospheric, oceanic, and biospheric processes, and for interpreting paleoclimate proxy reconstructions. Isotopologues are transported by both large‐scale and turbulent flows, and the ratio of heavy to light isotopologues changes due to fractionation that can accompany condensation and evaporation processes. Correctly predicting the isotopic distributions requires resolving the relationships between large‐scale ocean and atmospheric circulation and smaller‐scale hydrological processes, which can be accomplished within a coupled climate modeling framework. Here we present the water isotope‐enabled version of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (iCESM1), which simulates global variations in water isotopic ratios in the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice. In a transient Last Millennium simulation covering the 850–2005 period, iCESM1 correctly captures the late‐twentieth‐century structure of δ 18 O and δD over the global oceans, with more limited accuracy over land. The relationship between salinity and seawater δ 18 O is also well represented over the observational period, including interbasin variations. We illustrate the utility of coupled, isotope‐enabled simulations using both Last Millennium simulations and freshwater hosing experiments with iCESM1. Closing the isotopic mass balance between all components of the coupled model provides new confidence in the underlying depiction of the water cycle in CESM, while also highlighting areas where the underlying hydrologic balance can be improved. The iCESM1 is poised to be a vital community resource for ongoing model development with both modern and paleoclimate applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Partitioning Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of CO 2 Using Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF)

Accurate partitioning of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 to gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) is crucial for understanding carbon cycle dynamics under changing climate. However, it remains as a long-standing problem in global ecology due to lack of independent constraining information for the two offsetting component fluxes. solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), a mechanistic proxy for photosynthesis, holds great promise to improve NEE partitioning by constraining GPP. We developed a parsimonious SIF-based approach for NEE partitioning and examined its performance using synthetic simulations and field measurements. This approach outperforms conventional approaches in reproducing simulated GPP and R eco , especially under high vapor pressure deficit. For field measurements, it results in lower daytime GPP and R eco than conventional approaches. Furthermore, this study made the first attempt to demonstrate SIF's potential for improving NEE partitioning accuracy and sets the stage for future efforts to examine its robustness and scalability under real-world environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Superthermal Electron Deposition on the Mars Nightside During ICMEs

Superthermal electron precipitation is one of the main sources supporting the Mars nightside ionosphere. It is expected that solar wind electron fluxes are to increase significantly during interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and therefore an enhanced nightside ionospheric density. This study is to quantify the variation of the precipitating and deposited electron fluxes during five extreme ICMEs encountered by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS). We find that energy fluxes correlate better with the upstream dynamic pressure proxy than number fluxes and electron fluxes increase more at high energies, which means that electrons tend to have a lower peak production altitude during storm times. The precipitating and net/deposited fluxes are increased up to an order of magnitude from low to high dynamic pressures. The estimated total electron content (TEC) is a few times of 10 14 m -2 for quiet times and on the order of 1015 m -2 for storm times, with an enhancement up to an order of magnitude locally near strong crustal fields. Crustal magnetic fields have an effect on the deposited fluxes with more prominent magnetic reflection over strong magnetic fields during quiet periods, which is significantly reduced during storm times. Lastly, we estimate a global energy input from downward fluxes of 1.1 × 10 8 and 5.5 × 10 8 W and the globally deposited energy from net fluxes of 2.0 × 10 7 and 1.6 × 10 8 W for quiet and storm time periods, a factor of 5 and 8 enhancement globally, respectively, but up to an order of magnitude locally near strong crustal fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Observational Comparison of Level of Neutral Buoyancy and Level of Maximum Detrainment in Tropical Deep Convective Clouds

Tropical deep convective clouds are important drivers of large-scale atmospheric circulation representing the main vertical transport pathway through the depth of the troposphere for heat, momentum, water, and chemical species. The strength and depth of this transport are impacted by the convective updraft size and intensity that are driven by buoyancy, dynamical forcing, and mixing of environmental air, i.e., entrainment. In this paper, we identify tropical deep convective systems with well-defined forward anvils using Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) ground-based profiling radars, at three ARM fixed-sites in the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP; i.e., Manus, Nauru, Darwin) and three ARM Mobile Facility deployments in Niamey, Niger; Gan Island, Maldives; and Manacapuru, Brazil. We use the difference between the level of neutral buoyancy (LNB) and the level of maximum detrainment (LMD) as a proxy for the effective bulk convective entrainment (εproxy). The LNB, the theoretical height that a parcel raised above the level of free convection would reach with no mixing, is calculated based on pre-convection radiosonde measurements using parcel theory. The LMD is the height of the maximum reflectivity observed in forward anvil clouds by profiling radars. Deep convective systems over the TWP show higher LNBs that extend to 16.3 km on average and larger εproxy (median LNB minus LMD up to 6.5 km) compared to their continental counterparts in the Amazon and West Africa. Oceanic conditions show larger convective available potential energy (CAPE) coupled with higher moisture at low levels which favors larger εproxy. In contrast, continental cases initiate and develop under high convective inhibition, steeper environmental lapse rate, and high wind shear conditions, which show smaller offset between LNB and LMD. Deep convective cases that promote significant cold pools at the surface experience less εproxy. Using a Random Forest regression algorithm, CAPE is associated with the highest feature importance score for predicting convective εproxy, followed by low-level relative humidity. For continental cases, the low-level wind shear also indicates higher importance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the Representation of Synoptic Variability Associated With California Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract Days of extreme precipitation over California are evaluated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and the ERA‐Interim reanalysis. In the current climate, the model spread in composited precipitation on extreme precipitation days is closely related to the magnitude of composited integrated vapor transport (IVT) across models, a proxy for the intensity of atmospheric rivers. Most models underestimate the magnitude of IVT associated with extreme precipitation, according to ERA‐Interim. This is due mostly to the contribution of moisture, which almost all models overestimate, while the contribution of lower‐tropospheric wind speed is generally closer to the reanalyses. Moreover, most models underestimate the variance in the latitude of maxima of numerous variables among days of extreme California precipitation. That is, in the general circulation models there is a lack of diversity in the latitude of the disturbances bringing winter precipitation to California. In the future climate, most models project a decrease in the frequency of southward‐displaced disturbances among California extreme precipitation days. Hence, the greatest increases in extreme precipitation are over northern California. However, the historical underestimate of the latitudinal variance of disturbances calls into question the reliability of these projections. This bias should be especially considered for dynamical downscaling efforts over the region.

Norris, Jesse↗

Analysis of Oil and Gas Ethane and Methane Emissions in the Southcentral and Eastern United States Using Four Seasons of Continuous Aircraft Ethane Measurements

In the last decade, much work has been done to better understand methane (CH 4 ) emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) industry in the United States. Ethane (C 2 H 6 ), a gas that is co-emitted with thermogenic sources of CH 4 , is emitted in the US predominantly by the O&G sector. Here, in this study, we perform an inverse analysis on 200 h of atmospheric boundary layer C 2 H 6 measurements to estimate C 2 H 6 emissions from the US O&G sector. Measurements were collected from 2017 to 2019 as part of the Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT) America aircraft campaign and encompass much of the central and eastern United States. We find that for the fall, winter, and spring campaigns, C 2 H 6 data consistently exceeds values that would be expected based on EPA O&G leak rate estimates by more than 50%. C 2 H 6 observations from the summer 2019 data set show significantly lower C 2 H 6 enhancements in the southcentral region that cannot be reconciled with data from the other three seasons, either due to complex meteorological conditions or a temporal shift in the emissions. Combining the fall, winter, and spring C 2 H 6 posterior emissions estimate to an inventory of O&G CH 4 emissions, we estimate that O&G CH 4 emissions are larger than EPA inventory values by 48%–76%. Uncertainties in the gas composition data limit the accuracy of using C 2 H 6 as a proxy for O&G CH 4 emissions. These limits could be resolved retroactively by increasing the availability of industry-collected gas composition data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Slope-Aspect Induced Climate Differences Influence How Water Is Exchanged Between the Land and Atmosphere

Cross-slope climate differences in the midlatitudes are ecologically important, and impact vegetation-mediated water balance between the earth surface and the atmosphere. We made high-resolution in situ observations of air temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture, insolation, and sap velocity observations on 14 Pacific madrone trees (Arbutus menziesii) spanning adjacent north and south slopes at the University of California's Angelo Coast Range Reserve. To understand the cross-slope response of sap velocity, a proxy for transpiration, to microclimate, we modeled the sap velocity on each slope using a transpiration model driven by ambient environment and parameterized with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation process. The results show that trees on opposing slopes do not follow a shared pattern of physiological response to transpiration drivers. This means that the observed sap velocity differences are not due entirely to observed microclimate differences, but also due to population-level physiological differences, which indicates acclimation to inhabited microclimate. While our present data set and analytical tools do not identify mechanisms of acclimation, we speculate that differing proportions of sun-adapted and shade-adapted leaves, differences in stomatal regulation, and cross-slope root zone moisture differences could explain some of the observed and modeled differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Relation of Environmental Conditions With Charge Structure in Central Argentina Thunderstorms

In this study we explored the environmental conditions hypothesized to induce a dominant charge structure in thunderstorms in the province of Cordoba, Argentina, during the RELAMPAGO-CACTI (Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations-Clouds, Aerosols, Complex Terrain Interactions) field campaigns. Hypothesized environmental conditions are thought to be related to small warm cloud residence time and warm rain growth suppression, which lead to high cloud liquid water contents in the mixed-phase zone, contributing to positive charging of graupel and anomalous charge structure storms. Data from radiosondes, a cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) ground-based instrument and reanalysis were used to characterize the proximity inflow air of storms with anomalous and normal charge structures. Consistent with the initial hypothesis, anomalous storms had small warm cloud depth caused by dry low-level humidity and low 0°C height. Anomalous storms were associated with lower CCN concentrations than normal storms, an opposite result to the initial expectation. High CAPE is not an important condition for the development of anomalous storms in Argentina, as no clear pattern could be found among the different parameters calculated for updraft proxy that would be consistent with the initial hypothesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Northern High Latitude Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) Using Carbonyl Sulfide (OCS)

The northern high latitude (NHL, 40°N to 90°N) is where the second peak region of gross primary productivity (GPP) other than the tropics. The summer NHL GPP is about 80% of the tropical peak, but both regions are still highly uncertain. Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) provides an important proxy for photosynthetic carbon uptake. Here we optimize the OCS plant uptake fluxes across the NHL by fitting atmospheric concentration simulation with the GEOS-CHEM global transport model to the aircraft profiles acquired over Alaska during NASA's Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (2012–2015). We use the empirical biome-specific linear relationship between OCS plant uptake flux and GPP to derive the six plant uptake OCS fluxes from different GPP data. Such GPP-based fluxes are used to drive the concentration simulations. We evaluate the simulations against the independent observations at two ground sites of Alaska. The optimized OCS fluxes suggest the NHL plant uptake OCS flux of -247 Gg S year -1 , about 25% stronger than the ensemble mean of the six GPP-based OCS fluxes. GPP-based OCS fluxes systematically underestimate the peak growing season across the NHL, while a subset of models predict early start of season in Alaska, consistent with previous studies of net ecosystem exchange. The OCS optimized GPP of 34 PgC yr -1 for NHL is also about 25% more than the ensembles mean from six GPP data. Further work is needed to fully understand the environmental and biotic drivers and quantify their rate of photosynthetic carbon uptake in Arctic ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗