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At least 685 records · Page 38

The annual cycle of satellite-derived sea surface temperature in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean

The annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean was estimated using four years (July 1984-July 1988) of NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer observations. High resolution satellite observations at 1-km space and daily time resolution were grided at 100-km space and 5-day time intervals to develop an analysis dataset for determination of low frequency SST variability. The integral time scale, a measure of serial correlation, was found to vary from 40 to 60 days in the domain of interest. The existence of superannual trends in the SST data was investigated, but conclusive results could not be obtained. The annual cycle (and, in particular, the annual harmonic) explains a large proportion of the SST variability. The estimated amplitude of the cycle ranges between 5 deg and 13 deg C throughout the study area, with minima in August-September and maxima in February. The resultant climatology is compared with an arbitrary 5-day satellite SST field, and with the COADS/ICE SST climatology. It was found that the higher resolution satellite-based SST climatology resolves boundary current structure and has significantly better structural agreement with the observed field.

Podesta, Guillermo P.↗

Regression Analysis of Long-Term Profile Ozone Data Set from BUV Instruments

We have produced a profile merged ozone data set (MOD) based on the SBUV/SBUV2 series of nadir-viewing satellite backscatter instruments, covering the period from November 1978 - December 2003. In 2004, data from the Nimbus 7 SBUV and NOAA 9, ll, and 16 SBUV/2 instruments were reprocessed using the Version 8 (V8) algorithm and most recent calibrations. More recently, data from the Nimbus 4 BUT instrument, which was operational from 1970 - 1977, were also reprocessed using the V8 algorithm. As part of the V8 profile calibration, the Nimbus 7 and NOAA 9 (1993-1997 only) instrument calibrations have been adjusted to match the NOAA 11 calibration, which was established based on comparisons with SSBUV shuttle flight data. Differences between NOAA 11, Nimbus 7 and NOAA 9 profile zonal means are within plus or minus 5% at all levels when averaged over the respective periods of data overlap. NOAA 16 SBUV/2 data have insufficient overlap with NOAA 11, so its calibration is based on pre-flight information. Mean differences over 4 months of overlap are within plus or minus 7%. Given the level of agreement between the data sets, we simply average the ozone values during periods of instrument overlap to produce the MOD profile data set. Initial comparisons of coincident matches of N4 BUV and Arosa Umkehr data show mean differences of 0.5 (0.5)% at 30km; 7.5 (0.5)% at 35 km; and 11 (0.7)% at 40 km, where the number in parentheses is the standard error of the mean. In this study, we use the MOD profile data set (1978-2003) to estimate the change in profile ozone due to changing stratospheric chlorine levels. We use a standard linear regression model with proxies for the seasonal cycle, solar cycle, QBO, and ozone trend. To account for the non-linearity of stratospheric chlorine levels since the late 1990s, we use a time series of Effective Chlorine, defined as the global average of Chlorine + 50 * Bromine at 1 hPa, as the trend proxy. The Effective Chlorine data are taken from the 3-D Goddard CTM. We will show the latest trend results using this statistical model. In addition, the Nimbus 4 BUV data offer an opportunity to test the physical properties of our statistical model. From ground-based comparisons we will establish an uncertainty range for the Nimbus 4 data. We then extrapolate our statistical model fit backwards in time and compare to the Nimbus 4 data. We compare the characteristics of the residual, defined as the difference between the data and statistical regression fit, during the Nimbus 4 time period and the 1978-2003 period over which the statistical model coefficients were estimated, and present these results.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Global Ocean Evaporation Increases Since 1960 in Climate Reanalyses: How Accurate Are They?

AGCMs w/ Specified SSTs (AMIPs) GEOS-5, ERA-20CM Ensembles Incorporate best historical estimates of SST, sea ice, radiative forcing Atmospheric "weather noise" is inconsistent with specified SST. Instantaneous Sfc fluxes can be wrong sign (e.g. Indian Ocean Monsoon, high latitude oceans). Averaging over ensemble members helps isolate SST-forced signal. Reduced Observational Reanalyses: NOAA 20CR V2C, ERA-20C, JRA-55C Incorporate observed Sfc Press (20CR), Marine Winds (ERA-20C) and rawinsondes (JRA-55C) to recover much of true synoptic or weather w/o shock of new sat obs. Comprehensive Reanalyses (MERRA-2) Full suite of observational constraints- both conventional and remote sensing. But... substantial uncertainties owing to evolving satellite observing system. Multi-source Statistically Blended OAFlux, LargeYeager Blend reanalysis, satellite, and ocean buoy information. While climatological biases are removed, non-physical trends or variations in components remain. Satellite Retrievals GSSTF3, SeaFlux, HOAPS3... Global coverage. Retrieved near sfc wind speed, & humidity used with SST to drive accurate bulk aerodynamic flux estimates. Satellite inter-calibration, spacecraft pointing variations crucial. Short record ( late 1987-present). In situ Measurements ICOADS, IVAD, Res Cruises VOS and buoys offer direct measurements. Sparse data coverage (esp south of 30S. Changes in measurement techniques (e.g. shipboard anemometer height).

Climate↗

Speed Sensorless Induction Motor Drives for Electrical Actuators: Schemes, Trends and Tradeoffs

For a decade, induction motor drive-based electrical actuators have been under investigation as potential replacement for the conventional hydraulic and pneumatic actuators in aircraft. Advantages of electric actuator include lower weight and size, reduced maintenance and operating costs, improved safety due to the elimination of hazardous fluids and high pressure hydraulic and pneumatic actuators, and increased efficiency. Recently, the emphasis of research on induction motor drives has been on sensorless vector control which eliminates flux and speed sensors mounted on the motor. Also, the development of effective speed and flux estimators has allowed good rotor flux-oriented (RFO) performance at all speeds except those close to zero. Sensorless control has improved the motor performance, compared to the Volts/Hertz (or constant flux) controls. This report evaluates documented schemes for speed sensorless drives, and discusses the trends and tradeoffs involved in selecting a particular scheme. These schemes combine the attributes of the direct and indirect field-oriented control (FOC) or use model adaptive reference systems (MRAS) with a speed-dependent current model for flux estimation which tracks the voltage model-based flux estimator. Many factors are important in comparing the effectiveness of a speed sensorless scheme. Among them are the wide speed range capability, motor parameter insensitivity and noise reduction. Although a number of schemes have been proposed for solving the speed estimation, zero-speed FOC with robustness against parameter variations still remains an area of research for speed sensorless control.

Elbuluk, Malik E.↗

Techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment for the catalytic hydrogenolysis and hydrocracking of polyethylene

Catalytic hydrogenolysis and hydrocracking are promising technologies for the conversion of polyolefin waste into hydrocarbons. Here, to explore the economic and environmental viability of these approaches, we conducted techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment of polyethylene hydrogenolysis and hydrocracking processes that produce fuel-range products or olefins, respectively. Relative to primary production, the minimum selling price (MSP) of alkanes for linear-chain naphtha was estimated to be 1.8-fold higher, whereas branched-chain naphtha and propylene were shown to be cost competitive. Environmental impacts showed similar trends across scenarios, with propylene production by hydrocracking exhibiting greenhouse gas emissions comparable with conventional propylene due to relatively low hydrogen demand and high yield. Together, these results suggest that innovations in catalysis and reaction engineering will be required to make viable products that are scale matched with today's plastics, such as light olefins for closed-loop recycling.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

BISON analyses of TRISO fuel performance, its dependence on time-at-temperature, and possible implications for fuel design and qualification

The Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification (AGR) program has established a substantial technical foundation to support private entry into the U.S. high-temperature gas-cooled reactor market. However, emerging tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-fueled reactor applications include small modular reactors and microreactors with longer fuel residence times, which may expose fuels to higher time-at-temperature (TAT) values than were explored by the AGR program. Increased TAT could affect diffusive and thermomechanical behaviors such as Pd penetration, fission gas release, creep, and fission product transport. In this work, we applied multiscale best-estimate BISON fuel performance modeling to assess these effects within a representative design space based on the AGR-5/6/7 experiment and analyzed trends in predicted particle and compact fuel performance metrics with possible implications for near-term fuel design and qualification. BISON unambiguously predicted that TRISO fuel performance is sensitive to TAT. Increasing TAT was not predicted to increase the magnitude of failure-inducing tangential stresses in particle coating layers. Predictions obtained using a mechanistic model for Pd penetration indicated that penetration depth does not depend strongly on TAT. While these observations suggest that AGR testing provides a conservative upper bound for the steady-state operation of TRISO particles at lower powers and higher residence times, BISON also predicted that the release of poorly retained Ag would increase with TAT. Because these analyses applied models to extrapolate beyond the available experimental data, the authors recommend performing targeted experiments to confirm these predictions. Nevertheless, these predictions may provide reactor developers with enough confidence to make near-term design decisions associated with the potential fuel performance trade-offs of increasing TAT.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Population Aging and Heat Exposure in the 21st Century: Which U.S. Regions Are at Greatest Risk and Why?

Abstract Background and Objectives The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure. We estimate county-level variations in older populations’ heat exposure in the early (1995–2014) and mid (2050) 21st century. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. Research Design and Methods We estimate older adults’ heat exposure in 3,109 counties in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Analyses use NASA NEX Global Daily Downscaled Product (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data and county-level projections for the size and distribution of the U.S. age 69+ population. Results Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the United States, with particular “hotspots” in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions. Discussion and Implications Interventions to address the impacts of temperature extremes on older adult well-being should consider the geographic distribution and drivers of this exposure. In historically cooler areas where climate change is driving exposures, investments in warning systems may be productive, whereas investments in health care and social services infrastructures are essential in historically hot regions where exposures are driven by population aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The landscape of disc outflows from black hole–neutron star mergers

ABSTRACT We investigate mass ejection from accretion discs formed in mergers of black holes (BHs) and neutron stars (NSs). The third observing run of the LIGO/Virgo interferometers provided BH–NS candidate events that yielded no electromagnetic (EM) counterparts. The broad range of disc configurations expected from BH–NS mergers motivates a thorough exploration of parameter space to improve EM signal predictions. Here we conduct 27 high-resolution, axisymmetric, long-term hydrodynamic simulations of the viscous evolution of BH accretion discs that include neutrino emission/absorption effects and post-processing with a nuclear reaction network. In the absence of magnetic fields, these simulations provide a lower limit to the fraction of the initial disc mass ejected. We find a nearly linear inverse dependence of this fraction on disc compactness (BH mass over initial disc radius). The dependence is related to the fraction of the disc mass accreted before the ouflow is launched, which depends on the disc position relative to the innermost stable circular orbit. We also characterize a trend of decreasing ejected fraction and decreasing lanthanide/actinide content with increasing disc mass at fixed BH mass. This trend results from a longer time to reach weak freezout and an increasingly dominant role of neutrino absorption at higher disc masses. We estimate the radioactive luminosity from the disc outflow alone available to power kilonovae over the range of configurations studied, finding a spread of two orders of magnitude. For most of the BH–NS parameter space, the disc outflow contribution is well below the kilonova mass upper limits for GW190814.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship at the Sandia Wetlands at Los Alamos National Laboratory (2014-2019)

Biologists at Los Alamos National Laboratory completed six years (2014–2019) of demographic monitoring of passerines (songbirds) during the breeding season in Los Alamos, New Mexico. We captured songbirds at a mist netting station located in the Sandia Wetlands in Sandia Canyon (Technical Areas 60 and 61). We identified, measured, and then banded captured birds with federal migratory bird bands. Banding operations took place between May and August of each year, with 10 mist netting sessions annually. We conducted this project as part of the implementation of the Biological Resources Management Plan. The project complies with the 2013 Memorandum of Understanding between the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and the United States Department of Energy regarding the implementation of Executive Order 13186. The overall number of birds and species captured was variable, and we saw no decreases over the course of six years in bird species diversity, abundance, or the percentage of breeding birds. Our results indicate that the Sandia Wetlands support numerous species of breeding birds, including species of conservation concern. We did not see a declining trend for the top 10 most-captured species or for any of the species of conservation concern over time; however, we need more years of data to make robust conclusions about population trends through time. Our results indicated that adult recapture rates at the Sandia Wetlands are at least twice as low when compared with estimated adult survival in migratory passerines from peer-reviewed literature. We also did not recapture any birds that were banded as juveniles in subsequent years throughout the entire six-year period. Low recapture rates for adults and the non-existent recapture rates for juveniles should be explored further. To accurately assess individual species survival rates for adults and juveniles using mark-recapture models, we need a longer dataset, which would allow for a more robust analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Stratosphere 1981: Theory and measurements

Measurements of trace species are compared with theoretical estimates and the similarities and the differences between the two sets of data are discussed. The theoretical predictions are compared with long term trends in both column content and altitude profile of ozone as observed from ground-based and satellite instruments. The chemical kinetics and photochemistry of the stratosphere were reviewed.

Source record↗

Boreal forests and atmosphere - Biosphere exchange of carbon dioxide

Two approaches to investigating the role of boreal forests in the global carbon cycle are presented. First, a tracer support model which incorporates the normalized-difference vegetation index obtained from advanced, very high resolution radiometer radiances was used to simulate the annual cycle of CO2 in the atmosphere. Results indicate that the seasonal growth of the combined boreal forests of North America and Eurasia accounts for about 50 percent of the mean seasonal CO2 amplitude recorded at Pt. Barrow, Alaska and about 30 percent of the more globally representative CO2 signal at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Second, tree-ring width data from four boreal treeline sites in northern Canada were positively correlated with Pt. Barrow CO2 drawdown for the period 1971-1982. These results suggest that large-scale changes in the growth of boreal forests may be contributing to the observed increasing trend in CO2 amplitude. They further suggest that tree-ring data may be applicable as indices for CO2 uptake and remote sensing estimates of photosynthetic activity.

D'Arrigo, Rosanne↗

Flutter Clearance of the F-14A Variable-Sweep Transition Flight Experiment Airplane, Phase 2

An F-14A aircraft was modified for use as the test-bed aircraft for the variable-sweep transition flight experiment (VSTFE) program. The VSTFE program was a laminar flow research program designed to measure the effects of wing sweep on laminar flow. The airplane was modified by adding an upper surface foam and fiberglass glove to the right wing. An existing left wing glove had been added for the previous phase of the program. Ground vibration and flight flutter testing were accomplished to verify the absence of aeroelastic instabilities within a flight envelope of Mach 0.9 or 450 knots, calibrated airspeed, whichever was less. Flight test data indicated satisfactory damping levels and trends for the elastic structural modes of the airplane. Ground vibration test data are presented along with in-flight frequency and damping estimates, time histories and power spectral densities of in-flight sensors, and pressure distribution data.

Freudinger, Lawrence C.↗

Experiment Design and Visualization Techniques for an X-59 Low-boom Variability Study

This presentation outlines the design of experiments approach and data visualization techniques for a simulation study of sonic booms from NASA’s X-59 supersonic aircraft. The X-59 will soon be flown over communities across the contiguous USA as it produces a low-loudness sonic boom, or low-boom. Survey data on human perception of low-booms will be collected to support development of potential future commercial supersonic aircraft noise regulatory standards. The macroscopic atmosphere plays a critical role in the loudness of sonic booms. The extensive sonic boom simulation study presented herein was completed to assess climatological, geographical, and seasonal effects on the variability of the X-59’s low-boom loudness and noise exposure region size in order to inform X-59 community test planning. The loudness and extent of the noise exposure region make up the “sonic boom carpet.” Two spatial and temporal resolutions of atmospheric input data to the simulation were investigated. A Fast Flexible Space-Filling Design was used to select the locations across the USA for the two spatial resolutions. Analysis of simulated X-59 low-boom loudness data within a regional subset of the northeast USA was completed using a bootstrap forest to determine the final spatial and temporal resolution of the countrywide simulation study. Atmospheric profiles from NOAA’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 database were used to generate over one million simulated X-59 carpets at the final selected 138 locations across the USA. Effects of aircraft heading, season, geography, and climate zone on low-boom levels and noise exposure region size were analyzed. Models were developed to estimate loudness metrics throughout the USA for X-59 supersonic cruise overflight, and results were visualized on maps to show geographical and seasonal trends. These results inform regulators and mission planners on expected variations in boom levels and carpet extent from atmospheric variations. Understanding potential carpet variability is important when planning community noise surveys using the X-59.

X-59↗

Starshade Rendezvous: Exoplanet Sensitivity and Observing Strategy

Launching a starshade to rendezvous with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) would provide the first opportunity to directly image the habitable zones (HZs) of nearby sunlike stars in the coming decade. A report on the science and feasibility of such a mission was recently submitted to NASA as a probe study concept. The driving objective of the concept is to determine whether Earth-like exoplanets exist in the HZs of the nearest sunlike stars and have biosignature gases in their atmospheres. With the sensitivity provided by this telescope, it is possible to measure the brightness of zodiacal dust disks around the nearest sunlike stars and establish how their population compares with our own. In addition, known gas-giant exoplanets can be targeted to measure their atmospheric metallicity and thereby determine if the correlation with planet mass follows the trend observed in the Solar System and hinted at by exoplanet transit spectroscopy data. We provide the details of the calculations used to estimate the sensitivity of Roman with a starshade and describe the publicly available Python-based source code used to make these calculations. Given the fixed capability of Roman and the constrained observing windows inherent for the starshade, we calculate the sensitivity of the combined observatory to detect these three types of targets, and we present an overall observing strategy that enables us to achieve these objectives.

Andrew Frederic Romero-wolf↗

Total ozone change estimations for different time intervals

To investigate total ozone behavior in different time intervals for the 40 deg - 52 deg N and 53 deg - 64 deg N latitudinal bands sliding 11 year linear trends with the first interval from 1959 to 1969 and the final one from 1980 to 1990 were computed. The most recent 11-year trends are negative and have larger absolute values than in the past. The trend values in the period from 1980 to 1990 in the 53 deg - 64 deg N band are minus 4.3 percent (winter), minus 3.2 percent (summer), and minus 3.8 percent (annual) per decade, and in the 40 deg - 52 deg N band they are minus 5.9 percent (winter), minus 2.7 percent (summer), and minus 3.6 percent (annual) per decade.

Fioletov, Vitali E.↗

Combined $\mathrm{APOGEE}$-$\mathrm{GALAH}$ stellar catalogues using the Cannon

APOGEE and GALAH are two high resolution multi-object spectroscopic surveys that provide fundamental stellar parameters and multiple elemental abundance estimates for about half a million stars in the Milky Way. Both surveys observe in different wavelength regimes and use different data reduction pipelines leading to significant offsets and trends in stellar parameters and abundances for the common stars observed in both surveys. Such systematic differences/offsets in stellar parameters and abundances make it difficult to effectively utilize them to investigate Galactic abundance trends in spite of the unique advantage provided by their complementary sky coverage and different Milky Way components they observe. Hence, we use the Cannon data-driven method selecting a training set of 4418 common stars observed by both surveys. This enables the construction of two catalogues, one with the APOGEE-scaled and the other with the GALAH-scaled stellar parameters. Using repeat observations in APOGEE and GALAH, we find high precision in metallicity (~0.02–0.4 dex) and alpha abundances (~0.02–0.03 dex) for spectra with good signal-to-noise ratio (SNR >; 80 for APOGEE and SNR > 40 for GALAH). We use open and globular clusters to validate our parameter estimates and find small scatter in metallicity (0.06 dex) and alpha abundances (0.03 dex) in APOGEE-scaled case. The final catalogues have been cross-matched with the Gaia EDR3 catalogue to enable their use to carry out detailed chemo-dynamic studies of the Milky Way from perspectives of APOGEE and GALAH.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Global Air Quality and Health Co-benefits of Mitigating Near-term Climate Change Through Methane and Black Carbon Emission Controls

Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM < or = 2.5 microns in aerodynamic diameter; PM2.5), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate. Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20-40 years. Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM2.5‑ and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration-response functions. Results: We estimated that, for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23-34% and 7-17% and avoid 0.6-4.4 and 0.04-0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration-response function. Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.

air quality↗

Agreement of Analytical and Simulation-Based Estimates of the Required Land Depth in Climate Models

Previous analytical and simulation-based analyses suggest that deeper land surface models are needed to realistically simulate the terrestrial thermal state in climate models, with implications for land-atmosphere interactions. Analytical approaches mainly focused on the subsurface propagation of harmonics such as the annual temperature signal, and a direct comparison with climate-change model output has been elusive. Here, this study addresses the propagation of a harmonic pulse fitted to represent the timescale and amplitude of anthropogenic warming. Its comparison to land model simulations with stepwise increased bottom boundary depth leads to an agreement between the simulation-based and analytical frameworks for long-term climate trends. Any depth increase gradually decreases the relative error in the subsurface thermodynamics, and a minimum depth of 170 m is recommended to simulate the ground climate adequately. The approach provides an accurate estimate of the required land-model depth for climate-change simulations and assesses the relative bias in insufficiently deep land models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗