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DOE OSTI2026

Modeling glass degradation and release of radionuclides from vitrified waste for performance assessment simulations

The release of radionuclides initially encapsulated in a slowly degrading solid waste form and contained in an eventually corroding canister defines the source term for numerical simulations for the assessment of a geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste. While the details of waste degradation, canister corrosion, and dissolution and mobilization of the radionuclides in pore water include complex chemical reaction and transport processes that are coupled to the thermal, hydrological, microbiological, and mechanical conditions in the repository, the source-term model suitable for use in a numerical performance assessment model should be a defensible abstraction of these mechanisms. We developed a radiological source-term model and implemented it into a non-isothermal flow and transport simulator. While the proposed source-term model is applicable to various waste forms, canister systems, and disposal concepts, we specifically considered radionuclide releases from vitrified high-level waste placed in a cylindrical canister disposed in a deep vertical borehole repository. In this model, waste degradation is a function of temperature, and it can be adjusted to evaluate the influence of and propagate uncertainties in pH, passivation reactions, and chemical conditions as well as geometrical factors. The time-dependent, congruent release of safety-relevant radionuclides present in the decaying inventory is then calculated. Finally, the radionuclides are mobilized by diffusive and advective transport according to the thermo-hydraulic conditions prevailing in the near field of the repository, from where they migrate through the geosphere to the accessible environment. We examine the influence of the source-term model’s parameters on performance assessment calculations through sensitivity and uncertainty propagation analyses, identifying influential factors and confirming the upper bound of their impact. These considerations align with the overarching goal of repository design, which is to demonstrate that engineered and natural barriers can collectively delay radionuclide migration for timescales far exceeding human planning, thereby providing multiple, redundant barriers against environmental contamination.

iTOUGH2↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Investigation of the Potential for Lidar & Polarimeter Combined Aerosol Retrievals Using Various Instrument Combinations

As a scientific community, we are motivated to achieve better observational capabilities for aerosols, to reduce uncertainties about aerosol’s role in climate. Encouraged by the National Academies Decadal Survey, many are looking to the synergy of lidar and polarimeter as a means of achieving improved measurements. Polarimetric observations of total-column radiances have excellent sensitivity to aerosol size distribution and absorption properties. Active lidar measurements have fewer wavelengths and view angles and therefore more limited sensitivity to aerosol microphysical properties such as complex refractive index. Yet the advantage of vertically resolved profiles is game-changing, especially given that models contain significant uncertainty about the vertical distribution of aerosol and that polarimeter and other passive retrievals must make assumptions about vertical distribution which can impact performance. To optimize the synergy, a joint polarimeter + lidar mission requires a joint retrieval. However, the exact instruments that will be launched on a future satellite are unknown, and the capabilities of polarimeters and lidars cover a large range. In this study, we perform information content analysis for a range of nominal instrument combinations. The methodology is ideal for assessing the impact of measurements and a priori information (assumptions and constraints) with respect to the desired retrieval products, and for comparing measurement systems. It has advantages that make it useful in advance of or in parallel with retrieval development, such as producing quantitatively useful comparisons even for retrieval scenarios that are significantly underdetermined and therefore impossible to retrieve without significant assumptions, and it is not impacted by retrieval-specific sources of error such as incomplete or incorrect convergence which can complicate the interpretation of a retrieval performance analysis. Here, we will derive the expected uncertainty in retrieved aerosol concentration, effective radius, fine mode fraction and single scattering albedo, for a combination of a polarimeter with various grades of lidar, from an elastic backscatter lidar, similar to the pathfinder CALIOP on the CALIPSO satellite, to a multi-wavelength high spectral resolution lidar.

Sharon P Burton↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ACS3: Flight Dynamics

The NASA's Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3) mission consist of a spacecraft that will deploy an 80 m2 solar sail in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The main objective of the mission is to demonstrate that the solar wind can impulse the spacecraft to change the semimajor-axis and obtain a different orbit altitude. The sail will be composed of a combination of composite materials with distinct properties, and it will be deployed with lightweight booms from a 12U CubeSat bus, developed by Nanoavionics. The spacecraft will be launched aboard an Electron launch vehicle from Rocket LAB Launch Complex in New Zealand. This paper covers the orbital mechanics and navigation developments to support the mission, from the solar sail trajectory model to the actual flight dynamics system to provide the orbit determination analysis prior to flight. First, we introduce a description of our high-fidelity propagation that accounts for the solar radiation pressure to produce predictive ephemeris of the solar sail performance with several spacecraft attitude modes. As part of our results, we present plots of the expected altitudes achieved by the spacecraft once the solar sail is deployed under various assumptions of the solar weather. In addition to that, we present a full description of our orbit determination process which relies in GPS state vectors to accurately estimate the position and velocity uncertainties at a frequent cadence during the mission. The outcome of this process will be critical to achieving the objective of determining effective altitude change produced by the solar sail.

Solar sail↗

NASA NTRS2023

PACE Technical Report Series, Volume 11: The PACE Postlaunch Airborne eXperiment (PACE-PAX)

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE; https://pace.gsfc.nasa.gov) mission is NASA's latest and greatest effort to study the ocean-atmosphere system and build upon the legacy of previous satellite missions that have revolutionized our understanding of our home planet. By using advanced radiometric and polarimetric instruments to measure ocean color and key atmospheric variables, PACE aims to provide new insights into the complex interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, and biosphere. This information will be critical for improving our ability to model and predict changes in the Earth's climate, as well as to manage and conserve our planet's valuable natural resources. Performance assessments and science data product validation is a critical process for any Earth Science space-borne mission, as it involves assessing and verifying the quality of the data products generated by the mission while it is in orbit, as well as assigning uncertainties to these retrievals. More specifically, validation efforts are essential for assessing the accuracy of instrument data and the derived science products across varied spatial and temporal scales and ensuring their reliability and consistency with the mission's scientific goals and objectives. The overall plan for validation of PACE data is described in “PACE Science Data Product Validation Plan” (see, e.g., https://pace.gsfc.nasa.gov), and among range of post-launch activities, it describes the need and requirements for a post-launch airborne field campaign in support of PACE validation. This volume outlines the plans and requirements of the PACE Postlaunch Airborne eXperiment (PACE-PAX). The main goal of PACE-PAX is to gather validation and assessment data for the PACE mission, using a variety of airborne and ground-based assets. These assets will be coordinated to obtain complementary measurements of key ocean and atmospheric variables, such as ocean color, aerosols, and clouds. By collecting data from multiple sources, PACE-PAX will help to validate and refine the data products generated by the PACE mission, as well as to identify any potential errors or biases in the measurements. This will be essential for ensuring the accuracy and reliability of the PACE data products, and for maximizing the scientific value of the mission.

Kirk D Knobelspiesse↗

NASA NTRS1988

A unified process for systems identification based on performance assessment

Many modern spacecraft are complex multi-body dynamic systems where the bodies are connected by several active control systems for pointing and isolation. Mission requirements indicate that many structural modes and possibly some nonlinear effects will require characterization. Thus, even characterization at the subsystem level will become more difficult than usual. System level characterization difficulties will be compounded by the fact that only limited ground testing will be possible on the full up system, and flight testing will be restricted by an extremely limited measurements set. The object of the present discussion is the application of matrix majorant theory to the problem of assessing dynamic system performance when knowledge of the system is uncertain. We show how majorants provide an effective tool to relate required performance output to system identification test quality in terms of residual uncertainty in input-output relations, parameter values, nonlinearities, and interactions. The underlying machinery consists of the block-norm matrix which is a nonnegative matrix each of whose elements is the norm of a block of a suitably partitioned matrix. A matrix which bounds the block-norm matrix in the sense of nonnegative matrices, i.e., element by element is known as a majorant.

Hyland, C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework

PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.

Strack, William C.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Climate Extremes and Risks: Links Between Climate Science and Decision-Making

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.

climate extremes↗

DOE OSTI2026

Studying MeV Scale Neutron Interactions in DUNE ND-LAr 2x2 Demonstrator

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment designed to make high-precision measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters and probe for new physics using a neutrino beam produced at Fermilab and measured at a near detector complex and a far detector located 1,300 km away at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. Precise neutrino energy reconstruction is essential for these measurements, with neutron production in neutrino–argon interactions representing a significant source of systematic uncertainty, as neutrons can carry away significant energy, making their detection and characterization crucial. DUNE’s near detector complex includes ND-LAr, a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) detector designed to mirror the far detector technology and constrain neutrino–argon interaction systematics. The DUNE 2x2 Demonstrator, a pixelated LArTPC based on the ArgonCube design, serves as a prototype for ND-LAr. During 2x2 operations from October to November 2026, an Americium–Beryllium (AmBe) neutron source was deployed near the detector cryostat to obtain a high-statistics sample of neutron interactions. This poster presents progress in studying MeV-scale neutron interactions in this dataset by identifying de-excitation gammas from neutron capture on argon, providing a method for neutron identification and charge readout system calibration in future DUNE detectors.

Mao, Edgar [Syracuse U.] (ORCID:0009000600893306)↗

NASA NTRS2011

Impact of Tactical and Strategic Weather Avoidance on Separation Assurance

The ability to keep flights away from weather hazards while maintaining aircraft-to-aircraft separation is critically important. The Advanced Airspace Concept is an automation concept that implements a ground-based strategic conflict resolution algorithm for management of aircraft separation. The impact of dynamic and uncertain weather avoidance on this concept is investigated. A strategic weather rerouting system is integrated with the Advanced Airspace Concept, which also provides a tactical weather avoidance algorithm, in a fast time simulation of the Air Transportation System. Strategic weather rerouting is used to plan routes around weather in the 20 minute to two-hour time horizon. To address forecast uncertainty, flight routes are revised at 15 minute intervals. Tactical weather avoidance is used for short term trajectory adjustments (30 minute planning horizon) that are updated every minute to address any weather conflicts (instances where aircraft are predicted to pass through weather cells) that are left unresolved by strategic weather rerouting. The fast time simulation is used to assess the impact of tactical weather avoidance on the performance of automated conflict resolution as well as the impact of strategic weather rerouting on both conflict resolution and tactical weather avoidance. The results demonstrate that both tactical weather avoidance and strategic weather rerouting increase the algorithm complexity required to find aircraft conflict resolutions. Results also demonstrate that tactical weather avoidance is prone to higher airborne delay than strategic weather rerouting. Adding strategic weather rerouting to tactical weather avoidance reduces total airborne delays for the reported scenario by 18% and reduces the number of remaining weather violations by 13%. Finally, two features are identified that have proven important for strategic weather rerouting to realize these benefits; namely, the ability to revise reroutes and the use of maneuvers that start far ahead of encountering a weather cell when rerouting around weather.

Refai, Mohamad S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Modeling Approach to Support Changeability Analysis and Management of Earth Observation Portfolios

Earth observing (EO) mission portfolios provide data on many geophysical parameters that collectively inform our understanding of the Earth system. To observe large-scale climate trends, it is important to collect data on many parameters over time. However, gaps may occur between missions due to formulation complexity, development delays, and uncertain events in operations. These gaps may impact the ability to provide sustained measurements. Developing a balanced EO mission portfolio is key to supporting study of the Earth system. Yet, decision-making at the portfolio level is a complex task because missions often address multiple parameters. Currently, the likelihood of data gaps is often assessed for an individual parameter, but decisions and events can impact data collection for many parameters. This poster introduces a modeling approach that supports management of the many parameter impacts of decisions and uncertain events. The approach provides a foundation for analyzing changeability in EO mission portfolios. Changeability analysis provides insight into a portfolio’s sensitivity to changes caused by decisions or uncertain events. The model is developed to analyze two aspects of changeability, robustness and flexibility, in EO mission portfolios. In context of these portfolios, the authors define robustness as a portfolio’s ability to provide sustained measurements despite future uncertainties, and they define flexibility as the availability of decision alternatives that contribute to parameter coverage at little detriment to the rest of the portfolio. The proposed model characterizes a portfolio’s sensitivity to change by capturing mission-parameter interconnectivity and redundancy in parameter coverage. The model can be analyzed to identify events that can create substantial gaps, thereby revealing focus areas for mitigation efforts. The model can also be analyzed to identify gap mitigation decisions that may improve parameter coverage with little detriment to the rest of the portfolio, thereby revealing favorable pathways for portfolio improvement. Developing a process for identifying these threats and opportunities will be the focus of future work. A parallel poster proposes a standard for visualizing and communicating portfolio-level impacts of decisions and uncertain events.

Lindsey Jacobson↗

DOE OSTI2021

Diversifying Composition Leads to Hierarchical Composites with Design Flexibility and Structural Fidelity

Although significant progress has been made in the self-assembly of nanostructures, present successes heavily rely on precision in building block design, composition, and pair interactions. These requirements fundamentally limit our ability to synthesize macroscopic materials where the likelihood of impurity inclusion escalates and, more importantly, to access molecular-to-nanoscopic-to-microscopic-to-macroscopic hierarchies, since the types and compositions of building blocks vary at each stage. Inspired by biological blends and high-entropy alloys, we hypothesize that diversifying the blend’s composition can overcome these limitations. Increasing the number of components increases mixing entropy, leading to the dispersion of different components and, as a result, enhances interphase miscibility, weakens the dependence on specific pair interactions, and enables long-range cooperativity. This hypothesis is validated in complex blends containing small molecules, block copolymer-based supramolecules, and nanoparticles/colloidal particles. Hierarchically structured composites can be obtained with formulation flexibility in the filler selection and blend composition. It is worth noting that, by adding small molecules, we can solve the size constraint that plagues traditional block copolymer/nanoparticle blends. Detailed characterization and simulation further confirm that each component is distributed to locally mediate unfavorable interactions, cooperatively mitigate composition fluctuations, and retain structural fidelity. Furthermore, the blends have sufficient mobility to access tunable microstructures without compromising the order of the nanostructure. Besides establishing a kinetically viable pathway to release current constraints in the composite design and to navigate uncertainties during structure formation over multiple length scales, the present study demonstrates that entropy-driven behaviors can be realized in systems beyond high-entropy alloys despite inherent differences between metal alloys and organic/inorganic hybrids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2016

Wind Information Uplink to Aircraft Performing Interval Management Operations

Interval Management (IM) is an ADS-B-enabled suite of applications that use ground and flight deck capabilities and procedures designed to support the relative spacing of aircraft (Barmore et al., 2004, Murdoch et al. 2009, Barmore 2009, Swieringa et al. 2011; Weitz et al. 2012). Relative spacing refers to managing the position of one aircraft to a time or distance relative to another aircraft, as opposed to a static reference point such as a point over the ground or clock time. This results in improved inter-aircraft spacing precision and is expected to allow aircraft to be spaced closer to the applicable separation standard than current operations. Consequently, if the reduced spacing is used in scheduling, IM can reduce the time interval between the first and last aircraft in an overall arrival flow, resulting in increased throughput. Because IM relies on speed changes to achieve precise spacing, it can reduce costly, low-altitude, vectoring, which increases both efficiency and throughput in capacity-constrained airspace without negatively impacting controller workload and task complexity. This is expected to increase overall system efficiency. The Flight Deck Interval Management (FIM) equipment provides speeds to the flight crew that will deliver them to the achieve-by point at the controller-specified time, i.e., assigned spacing goal, after the target aircraft crosses the achieve-by point (Figure 1.1). Since the IM and target aircraft may not be on the same arrival procedure, the FIM equipment predicts the estimated times of arrival (ETA) for both the IM and target aircraft to the achieve-by point. This involves generating an approximate four-dimensional trajectory for each aircraft. The accuracy of the wind data used to generate those trajectories is critical to the success of the IM operation. There are two main forms of uncertainty in the wind information used by the FIM equipment. The first is the accuracy of the forecast modeling done by the weather provider. This is generally a global environmental prediction obtained from a weather model such as the Rapid Refresh (RAP) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The weather forecast data will have errors relative to the actual, or truth, winds that the aircraft will encounter. The second source of uncertainty is that only a small subset of the forecast data can be uplinked to the aircraft for use by the FIM equipment. This results in loss of additional information. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and RTCA are currently developing standards for the communication of wind and atmospheric data to the aircraft for use in NextGen operations. This study examines the impact of various wind forecast sampling methods on IM performance metrics to inform the standards development.

Ahmad, Nashat N.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Physics Informed Neural Nets for Systems Health Management

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Development in data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. The research work presents application of physics-informed neural nets application to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage.

Physics Informed↗

DOE OSTI2021

Time-of-Flight Estimation for Nondestructive Evaluation

Ultrasonic testing (UT) for nondestructive evaluation (NDE) is a critical entity necessary to resolve both the quality and precision questions of complex parts evolving from the classical approaches to the innovative additive manufacturing (AM) process. This modality provides the essential quantitative information for acceptance and potential flaw detectionof apart under investigation. A primary ingredient in UT besides the required precision robotic hardware for theacquisition of high-qualitymeasurement data is the underlying signal processing. It is here that much of the system performance capability resides. In this report,we discuss the basic steps in UT signal processing along with current capabilities that must be achieved in order to satisfy the criticaldemands of the various LLNL programs.In itsbasic foundations, signal processing is essentially the “extraction of critical information (signals) from noisy, uncertain data.” Clearly, in a perfect world the best signal processing is none---just make a reliable, noise-free, uncertainty-free, measurement. Unfortunately, even the best of systems is still straddled within the confines and limitations of physical instrumentation. With this in mind, we discuss the development of signal processing techniques toextract the desired UT information from noisy measurement data. We start with a discussion of a simple homogeneous representation of a “part” under investigation and its insonification by an ultrasonicexcitation from a physics-based perspective. Once developed, we briefly discussthe various choices of excitation signals and their tradeoffs.Next,we discuss a simulation approach employing simple models from the signal processing perspective and then move on to the development of the basic signal processing approach to ultrasonic signal processing all based on estimating the pulse arrival estimation. Starting with simple peak detection techniques, progressing to the processing workhorse so-called “matched-filter” and finally to the more sophisticated “model-based matched filter.”The underlying pre-and post-processing of noisy measurement data along with the application of these techniques are subsequently demonstrated on experimental ultrasonic data.Finally, we present some results for processing “weld” data when the ultrasonic excitation signal is not directly available.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Scientific Case for Concurrent Neutron and X-ray Scattering and Spectroscopy

The interrogation of materials with X-rays or neutrons to determine the structure, energetics, and dynamics of materials is fundamental to advancing materials' physical and chemical science and developing innovative material technologies. A transcending challenge in developing novel materials is that progress hinges on understanding the structure and dynamics across multiple time and length scales in complex materials that feature multiple components, interfaces, and compositions. Despite the ever-growing demands on materials’ characterization, existing approaches are almost exclusively based on isolated X-ray or neutron scattering, i.e., an approach commensurate with the more narrowly defined needs of fifty years ago. A three-day workshop sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) analyzed the demand for concurrent neutron and X-ray (NeX) experiments. It was held at the Spring Hill Suites, San Jose, California, from June 2 to 4, 2022. In this workshop, 70 national and international experts ascertained the crucial need to establish NeX capabilities to advance the science of complex materials and systems in the US. Here, we illustrate the need for NeX scattering and spectroscopy experiments by showcasing examples that span areas as diverse as biomaterials, energy science, soft matter, and nanomaterials. To provide NeX capability will require new instrumentation that enables concurrent experiments. Affected areas include chemistry, soft matter, quantum materials, pure and applied chemistry, bioscience, geoscience, and applied materials. NeX benefits research outcomes due to the complementarity of the two techniques, which is essential for better model refinement. While joint refinement of data from separate neutron and X-ray experiments is critical to avoid ambiguities, especially in multiphase-multicomponent materials, concurrent experiments overcome scientific and technical barriers associated with single measurements, separated by location and, thus, time. Among all the examples, these factors introduce uncertainties in the results that complicate data analysis. [1,2] [3] While models are strongly sample-dependent, the principles of joint refinement are generally applicable to these disciplines, including the development of advanced parameterization, modeling, and analysis techniques that also consider the temporal and spatial resolutions of the two methods, leading to unambiguous data interpretation. Solutions for technical barriers must be found to realize NeX experiments, including developing robust sample environments that meet the optical requirements of neutrons and X-rays.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Applied Science for Decision-Making at the Water-Energy Nexus

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: The energy transition is a game-changer across multiple sectors, requiring researchers and practitioners to re-evaluate the evolving connections between climate, water, and power systems, as well as the associated co-management of resources and decision-making. In anticipation of new technologies, policies, business models, and other solutions, applied science for decision-making at the climate-water-energy nexus is needed to support transitions with the expected climate resilience, maintained and enhanced energy security, thriving economies, and equity considerations. Through panelists' applied research and operational experience, the webinar will provide lesson-learnt in how to increase the readiness of water-energy research and become actionable in the context of energy transitions. A number of themes will be discussed, including the connection between growing computational resources and complexity of models, and the implications on the intended users, the actual actionable products, the availability of data for validation of the models, uncertainty characterization and decision-making under uncertainty, and the communication of the novelty to decision-makers and the public. Presenters : David McCollum (Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Co-Chair), and Gokul Iyer (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Co-Chair), Curt Jawdy (Tennessee Valley Authority), Nathalie Voisin (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), and Andrew D. Jones (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) Moderator: Pat M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: April 30, 2024 from 1-2 PM ET

Energy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ACS3 - Flight Dynamics for A Solar Sail Technology Demonstration Mission

The NASA's Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3) mission consist of a spacecraft that will deploy an 80 m 2 solar sail in a 1000 km sun-synchronous orbit. The main objective of the mission is to demonstrate that the solar wind can impulse the spacecraft to change the semimajor-axis and obtain a different orbit altitude. The sail will be composed of a combination of composite materials with distinct properties, and it will be deployed with lightweight booms from a 12U CubeSat bus, developed by Nanoavionics. The spacecraft will be launched aboard an Electron launch vehicle from Rocket LAB Launch Complex in New Zealand no earlier than July 2023. This paper covers the orbital mechanics and navigation developments to support the mission, from the solar sail trajectory model to the actual flight dynamics system to provide the orbit determination analysis prior to flight. First, we introduce a description of our high-fidelity propagation that accounts for the solar radiation pressure to produce predictive ephemeris of the solar sail performance with several spacecraft attitude modes. As part of our results, we present plots of the expected altitudes achieved by the spacecraft once the solar sail is deployed under various assumptions of the solar weather. In addition to that, we present a full description of our orbit determination process which relies in GPS state vectors to accurately estimate the position and velocity uncertainties at a frequent cadence during the mission. The outcome of this process will be critical to achieving the objective of determining effective altitude change produced by the solar sail.

Solar Sail↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accuracy of HVAC Load Predictions: Validation of EnergyPlus and DOE-2 using FLEXLAB Measurements

The aim of the project reported here was to better understand the level of accuracy of three building energy simulation (BES) engines (‘engines’) — EnergyPlus™, DOE-2.1e, and DOE-2.2 — by identifying and investigating significant deviations between the performance predicted by these engines and actual performance as measured in the FLEXLAB® test facility at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The specific test conditions included some of those prescribed in ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140 - Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Programs. Detailed measurements of FLEXLAB performance, including indoor temperatures and heat fluxes and air-flow and water flow rates and temperatures in the Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system, together with hourly weather data, were recorded and used in analyzing the simulation results from EnergyPlus v8.8, DOE-2.2 v3.65 and DOE-2.1e v127. These engines are commonly used in the United States for building energy code compliance, federal, state, and utility incentives programs, as well as energy efficient design of new buildings and energy retrofit of existing buildings. Seven conventional overhead mixing ventilation scenarios were tested and each engine was found to have a similar level of agreement with the measurements of space-level heating and sensible cooling loads. These results provide useful information regarding the accuracy of these engines in predicting the cooling and heating load elements of whole building energy performance. This information is intended for practitioners who are concerned about transitioning between simulation tools with different engines and for managers of utility programs leveraging these tools for evaluating and/or projecting measure savings to be incentivized under their programs. The results of the comparisons of simulated and measured performance indicate that the predictions from all three engines are not significantly different. The 24-hour average value of the absolute mean bias indicates the likely magnitude of the error in any particular case. The average mean bias is reduced by cancelation of overprediction in one case by underprediction in another. The daytime absolute mean biases, which may be more important for both energy performance and occupant comfort, are ~6%, presumably because of the greater complexity involved in simulating in the presence of solar radiation. EnergyPlus typically overpredicts the cooling load and/or underpredicts the heating load by ~1.5% and the DOE-2 engines typically underpredict the cooling load by approximately the same amount. The Root Mean Square Error is relatively more sensitive to shorter term variations in the difference between predicted and measured loads; the three engines have similar values, ~10%, suggesting that the uncertainties in their predictions of peak loads may also be similar in magnitude. The implication of these results is that users, both designers and program analysts, can use EnergyPlus, DOE-2.1e, or DOE-2.2 to model conventional commercial buildings equipped with overhead mixing ventilation with a similar level of confidence. Further work is required to better understand the variability in the level of agreement between the engine predictions and FLEXLAB measurements, where a particular engine will agree well with FLEXLAB in some cases and not so well in others and another engine will agree or disagree in different cases. As the sources of this variability are identified and eliminated or reduced significantly, it is recommended that the experimental capabilities and methods developed in the study reported here should be applied to validating heating and cooling load calculations for spaces with different types of furniture and miscellaneous loads. These methods should then be applied to low energy space conditioning systems in EnergyPlus including, in particular, radiant slab and radiant ceiling panel cooling and heating systems and ‘mixed mode’ systems that combine mechanical cooling and natural ventilation systems, focusing on controls, including control of thermal mass. The work reported here addresses the conventional method of heating and cooling occupied spaces; other methods, such as the use of radiant heating and cooling systems have the potential to provide equivalent occupant comfort, or better, with lower energy consumption. These systems are addressed more explicitly in EnergyPlus but there is a need for empirical validation to give users the same level of confidence in modeling these systems that they have, or should have, in modeling conventional systems, based on the results presented here.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗