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Open Clusters as Laboratories: The Angular Momentum Evolution of Young Stars

The core group concentrated on three primary research topics: (1) ROSAT observation of the coronal activity of low mass stars in young open clusters; (2) the determination of stellar ages and the determination of the timescale for dissipation of circumstellar disks around young stars; and (3) the determination of rotation velocities of low mass stars in young open cluster and the inferred angular momentum evolution of low mass stars. With accurate ages for the clusters, we can then derive an independent estimate of the timescale for debris disks to dissipate. As the second half of that project, we are using the Caltech/UC/NASA Keck telescopes to obtain spectra of brown dwarf candidates in a number of nearby, young open clusters, from which we can determine new and accurate cluster ages. The final primary program that we have addressed was the determination of rotational velocities for low mass stars in our target open clusters. Our group has obtained rotational velocities for a large number of stars in several open clusters during this LTSA program, and we have published the results in several papers. One particularly time-consuming aspect of our program was the development of a database of the photometry and rotational velocities for nearby open clusters, which we have made available to the community.

Stauffer, John R.↗

Survey of Hearth Products in U.S. Homes

There are over 7 million gas-fired fireplaces currently installed in US households. On an annual basis, these use substantial energy. However, the details of the fireplace energy use and the factors that influence it are currently not well understood. Fireplaces are a type of hearth product, which is a product category that primarily consists of fireplaces, stoves, and gas log sets. For the purpose of this study, the fuels used in hearth products are primarily natural gas, propane, or electricity. They may be vented or unvented. This study reports the results of a web survey of 2,100 respondents in the United States performed in February 2016. The responses were cleaned and weighted using the raking method to form a nationally representative population. The reported data include hearth product characteristics, usage information, and repair and maintenance practices. The hearth product characteristics include the hearth product type, fuel type, ignition system type, features, venting, and installation details. The usage information includes seasonal usage of the main burner and standing pilot (if present), daily usage, and the primary utility (whether decorative or for heating). These raw data are further processed and combined with values from the literature to estimate the annual operating hours and energy use and to assess how these are impacted by the hearth product type, features, age, and the main heating appliance, if present. Based on the survey responses, the estimated average annual hours of usage was 234 for the main burner, and 4,593 for the standing pilot. The results presented provide the most comprehensive data regarding hearth products in the United States published to date. These new data allow for an improved understanding of hearth products’ energy use, which in turn may facilitate the development of more informed analyses, and ultimately more efficient hearth products and reduced energy use. These new data also provide insight into topics not previously studied, such as the effect of hearth product features on energy use.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Moderate-resolution K-band Spectroscopy of Substellar Companion κ Andromedae b

We present moderate-resolution (R ∼ 4000) K-band spectra of the “super-Jupiter,” κ Andromedae b. The data were taken with the OSIRIS integral field spectrograph at Keck Observatory. The spectra reveal resolved molecular lines from H{sub 2}O and CO, and are compared to a custom PHOENIX atmosphere model grid appropriate for young planetary-mass objects. We fit the data using a Markov chain Monte Carlo forward-modeling method. Using a combination of our moderate-resolution spectrum and low-resolution, broadband data from the literature, we derive an effective temperature of T {sub eff} = 1950–2150 K, a surface gravity of logg=3.5--4.5, and a metallicity of [M/H] = −0.2–0.0. These values are consistent with previous estimates from atmospheric modeling and the currently favored young age of the system (<50 Myr). We derive a C/O ratio of 0.70{sub −0.24}{sup +0.09} for the source, broadly consistent with the solar C/O ratio. This, coupled with the slightly subsolar metallicity, implies a composition consistent with that of the host star, and is suggestive of formation by a rapid process. The subsolar metallicity of κ Andromedae b is also consistent with predictions of formation via gravitational instability. Further constraints on formation of the companion will require measurement of the C/O ratio of κ Andromedae A. We also measure the radial velocity of κ Andromedae b for the first time, with a value of −1.4 ± 0.9 km s{sup −1} relative to the host star. We find that the derived radial velocity is consistent with the estimated high eccentricity of κ Andromedae b.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Adjusting Measured Weight Loss of Aged Graphite Fabric/PMR-15 Composites

The purposes of this study were to evaluate the growth of the surface damage layer in polymer matrix composites (PMC's) fabricated with graphite fabric reinforcement and to determine the effects of the cut-surface degradation on the overall thermo-oxidative (TOS) stability of these materials. Four important conclusions were made about the TOS behavior of T650-35/PNIR- 15 fabric-reinforced composites: (1) Three stages of composite weight loss were seen on the plot of weight loss versus aging time; (2) the depth of the cut-edge damage is related to the composite thickness; (3) the actual weight loss realized by a mechanical test specimen that has had all the aging-induced cut-edge damage removed during the preparation process is significantly less than the weight loss measured using specimens with a high percentage of cut edges exposed to the damaging environment; and (4) an extrapolation of a section of the weight loss curve can be used to obtain a more correct estimate of the actual weight loss after extended periods of aging at elevated temperatures.

Bowles, Kenneth J.↗

Quantifying Annual Industrial Locomotive Energy Consumption in the United States

While US Class 1 railroad locomotive rosters and annual fuel consumption are well-documented, considerably less is known regarding the overall energy consumption of operations involving industrial locomotives. To determine the energy savings potential of this rail operating sector, the objective of this research is to develop an inventory of US industrial locomotives and a baseline estimate of their annual energy consumption. Creating an industrial locomotives roster from public data is challenging given their diverse ownership by shippers or leasing companies, and operating locales largely out of public view. By cross-referencing public data on locomotive reporting marks, serial numbers, online images and aerial images, the project team confirmed the age, model and horsepower of over one thousand industrial locomotives. Estimating energy consumption is complicated by the variability in industrial locomotive types and power ratings, and extreme differences in duty cycles and utilization. Given these limitations, using quantified case study examples and adjustments to standard EPA line-haul and switching duty cycles, bounds on the magnitude of annual US industrial locomotive energy consumption were estimated.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Age and growth of early‐life‐stage Atlantic tarpon ( Megalops atlanticus) from the northcentral Gulf of Mexico

Abstract Age and growth of early‐life‐stage Atlantic tarpon Megalops atlanticus collected from Mississippi coastal waters in the northcentral Gulf of Mexico (GOM) are described using otolith microstructure analysis. Tarpon leptocephali ( n = 95, 16.0—27.8 mm standard length, L S ) collected from June throughOctober 2013—2018, ranged in age from 22 to 43 days (mean = 30.9 ± 0.5 days). Leptocephalus somatic growth rates ranged 0.46—1.24 mm day −1 (mean = 0.76 ± 0.02 mm day −1 ), and leptocephalus otolith growth rates ranged 1.78—3.97 μm day −1 (mean = 2.58 ± 0.04 μm day −1 ). Growth rates were inversely correlated to leptocephalus age, indicating the shrinkage phase associated with leptocephalus metamorphosis. Juvenile tarpon ( n = 358, 50—359 mm fork length, L F ) were collected from August through December 2007—2018. Juveniles exhibited a positive allometric relationship (adjusted R 2 = 0.99, P < 0.001) between length and mass. The age of 100 juveniles (71—277 mm L F ) ranged from 76 to 174 days. Juvenile growth rate was estimated as 1.56 ± 0.11 mm day −1 . Significant ( P < 0.001) linear relationships were found between juvenile age and otolith metrics, including otolith mass ( R 2 = 0.81) and radius ( R 2 = 0.68). Evaluation of the backcalculated hatch dates suggests that specimens in the collection hatched from late May through mid‐September with slight peaks during July and August. A Rao's Spacing Test of Uniformity indicates the presence of significant lunar periodicity in leptocephalus hatch dates ( n = 95, U = 250.1, P < 0.05), with 50% of the leptocephali hatched within 5 days (before or after) of the full moon. This study fills critical gaps in the scientific knowledge of tarpon and provides estimates of early‐life‐history metrics for an iconic game fish at the northernmost extent of its GOM range.

Graham, Patrick M.↗

Younger facial looks are associate with a lower likelihood of several age-related morbidities in the middle-aged to elderly

Abstract Background Looking older for one’s chronological age is associated with a higher mortality rate. Yet it remains unclear how perceived facial age relates to morbidity and the degree to which facial ageing reflects systemic ageing of the human body. Objectives To investigate the association between ΔPA and age-related morbidities of different organ systems, where ΔPA represents the difference between perceived age (PA) and chronological age. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis on data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study in the Netherlands. High-resolution facial photographs of 2679 men and women aged 51.5–87.8 years of European descent were used to assess PA. PA was estimated and scored in 5-year categories using these photographs by a panel of men and women who were blinded for chronological age and medical history. A linear mixed model was used to generate the mean PAs. The difference between the mean PA and chronological age was calculated (ΔPA), where a higher (positive) ΔPA means that the person looks younger for their age and a lower (negative) ΔPA that the person looks older. ΔPA was tested as a continuous variable for association with ageing-related morbidities including cardiovascular, pulmonary, ophthalmological, neurocognitive, renal, skeletal and auditory morbidities in separate regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex (model 1) and additionally for body mass index, smoking and sun exposure (model 2). Results We observed 5-year higher ΔPA (i.e. looking younger by 5 years for one’s age) to be associated with less osteoporosis [odds ratio (OR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62–0.93], less chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77–0.95), less age-related hearing loss (model 2; B = −0.76, 95% CI −1.35 to −0.17) and fewer cataracts (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73–0.97), but with better global cognitive functioning (g-factor; model 2; B = 0.07, 95% CI 0.04–0.10). Conclusions PA is associated with multiple morbidities and better cognitive function, suggesting that systemic ageing and cognitive ageing are, to an extent, externally visible in the human face.

Mekić, Selma↗

Summer outdoor temperature and occupational heat-related illnesses in Quebec (Canada)

Background: Predicted rise in global mean temperature and intensification of heat waves associated with climate change present an increasing challenge for occupational health and safety. Although important scientific knowledge has been gathered on the health effects of heat, very few studies have focused on quantifying the association between outdoor heat and mortality or morbidity among workers. Objective: To quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures. Methods: We modeled 259 heat-related illnesses compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board of Quebec between May and September, from 1998 to 2010, with maximum daily summer outdoor temperatures in 16 health regions of Quebec (Canada) using generalized linear models with negative binomial distributions, and estimated the pooled effect sizes for all regions combined, by sex and age groups, and for different time lags with random-effect models for meta-analyses. Results: The mean daily compensation count was 0.13 for all regions of Quebec combined. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures was log-linear; the pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily heat-related compensations per 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperatures was 1.419 (95% CI 1.326 to 1.520). Associations were similar for men and women and by age groups. Increases in daily maximum temperatures at lags 1 and 2 and for two and three-day lag averages were also associated with increases in daily counts of compensations (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase in temperature). Conclusion: This study is the first to quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer temperatures in Canada. The model (risk function) developed in this study could be useful to improve the assessment of future impacts of predicted summer outdoor temperatures on workers and vulnerable groups, particularly in colder temperate zones. - Highlights: • 259 heat-related compensated illnesses were modeled with ambient temperature • An overall risk ratio of 1.419 (95% CI 1.326–1.520) for every 1 °C increase was found • Risk estimates were similar for men and women and by large age groups. • There were little lag effects (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nitrate vulnerability projections from Bayesian inference of multiple groundwater age tracers

Nitrate is a major source of contamination of groundwater in the United States and around the world. We tested the applicability of multiple groundwater age tracers ( 3 H, 3 He, 4 He, 14 C, 13 C, and 85 Kr) in projecting future trends of nitrate concentration in 9 long-screened, public drinking water wells in Turlock, California, where nitrate concentrations are increasing toward the regulatory limit. Very low 85 Kr concentrations and apparent 3 H/ 3 He ages point to a relatively old modern fraction (40–50 years), diluted with pre-modern groundwater, corroborated by the onset and slope of increasing nitrate concentrations. An inverse Gaussian–Dirac model was chosen to represent the age distribution of the sampled groundwater at each well. Model parameters were estimated using a Bayesian inference, resulting in the posterior probability distribution – including the associated uncertainty – of the parameters and projected nitrate concentrations. Three scenarios were considered, including combined historic nitrate and age tracer data, the sole use of nitrate and the sole use of age tracer data. Each scenario was evaluated based on the ability of the model to reproduce the data and the level of reliability of the nitrate projections. The tracer-only scenario closely reproduced tracer concentrations, but not observed trends in the nitrate concentration. Both cases that included nitrate data resulted in good agreement with historical nitrate trends. Use of combined tracers and nitrate data resulted in a narrower range of projections of future nitrate levels. However, use of combined tracer and nitrate resulted in a larger discrepancy between modeled and measured tracers for some of the tracers. In conclusion, despite nitrate trend slopes between 0.56 and 1.73 mg/L/year in 7 of the 9 wells, the probability that concentrations will increase to levels above the MCL by 2040 are over 95% for only two of the wells, and below 15% in the other wells, due to a leveling off of reconstructed historical nitrate loadings to groundwater since about 1990.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flood basalt volcanism during the past 250 million years

A chronology of the initiation dates of major continental flood basalt volcanism is established from published potassium-argon (K-Ar) and argon-argon (Ar-Ar) ages of basaltic rocks and related basic intrusions. The dating is therefore independent of the biostratigraphic and paleomagnetic time scales. Estimated errors of the initiation dates of the volcanic episodes determined from the distributions of the radiometric ages are, approximately, + or - 4 percent. There were 11 distinct episodes during the past 250 million years. Sometimes appearing in pairs, the episodes have occurred quasi-periodically with a mean cycle time of 32 + or - 1 (estimated error of the mean) million years. The initiation dates of the episodes are close to the estimated dates of mass extinctions of marine organisms. Showers of impacting comets may be the cause.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

Quantifying Properties for a Mechanistic, Predictive Understanding of Aqueous Impact on Aging of Medium and Low Voltage AC and DC Cabling in Nuclear Power Plants

To address the gap in knowledge in understanding degradation in relevant service conditions, this project aimed to develop a mechanistic, predictive model of medium and low voltage cable failure based on the primary environmental degradation parameters of aqueous immersion time, temperature, and the oxidation extent. To do so, we took a two-fold approach toward evaluating degradation as related to the aqueous condition. First, we evaluated the chemical, mechanical, and electrical properties of polymers that comprise the cabling insulation under varied aqueous conditions at different temperatures. Secondly, we evaluated the performance of insulation materials under similar accelerated aging conditions in addition to the dielectric breakdown of the cabling under submersion conditions. Thermal oxidation and immersion of LDPE thin films were done using a Parr vessel and the extent of oxidation was monitored using the carbonyl index from ATR-FTIR spectrum, a ratio quantifying the carbonyl functionality produced on the LDPE film surface. Increasing the temperature, oxidation time, and oxygen pressure increased the water-vapor permeability and the carbonyl content. Thermogravimetric analysis of the films confirmed that there is indeed an initial weight loss of the smaller molecular weight molecules and volatiles. At higher temperatures, there is a secondary mass loss. Up to 70°C, the mass loss curves were similar until 80°C, when the aged films decreased at a much greater rate with respect to increasing temperature. This was seen in the 10, 50, 90% weight loss temperatures. The mechanical properties of sheet PP and HDPE as well as injection molded LDPE, HDPE, HDPP dog bones were plotted with respect to the time spent in the Parr vessel during thermal oxidation. For the sheet PP and HDPE, the UTS and the modulus of elasticity decreased while the elongation increased. The injection-molded LDPE, HDPE, and HDPP dog bones experienced a similar trend where the changes in the properties were within experimental uncertainty. This analysis of LDPE in dry and immersive oxygen-rich environments is an important baseline for future experiments looking at other degradation mechanisms. A predictive aging model for low-density polyethylene insulative cable housings was developed. This model revealed a combination of physical and chemical processes which lead to an increase in permeability and a decrease in strength of the insulator. In creating this predictive model, a gap of knowledge in the literature was revealed in two areas: understanding how the crystallinity of a polymer changes with time and visualizing the predicted pores formed through the insulator which leads to failure. Developing and using an adapted ATR-FTIR method, crystallinity was monitored and compared to bulk crystallinity found via DSC. Inhomogeneity in crystallinity changes were observed but the FTIR method but was found to be less reliable. Pore visualization was found utilizing electrical impedance spectroscopy saturated aged polyethylene films with synthesized citrate-capped gold nanoparticles, and chloroauric acid precursor. results indicate a decreasing impedance of the polyethylene films caused by the transport of ions through the film. SEM imaging was then performed for elemental analysis of the films and counter electrodes for the presence of ions. Chloride and gold ions were detected; however, no nanoparticles were found. This gives an estimated pore size of at least 0.3 nm through the aged film. Cyclic submergence of polyethylene and polypropylene in aqueous solutions of copper sulfate and Harrison’s solution were examined. It was discovered that aging in these mixed conditions and at 90°C did cause a small, yet significant increase to tensile strength for both unaged polyethylene and polypropylene. The PE and PP in cycled and submerged conditions did not have tensile strengths significantly different from dry-aged after 16 weeks. For both solutions, it was determined that capacitance increases with both water tree depth and cable temperature and is relatively independent of changing water tree AR. As for resistance, there is no apparent change between depth percentages of 10 and 80 for both solutions. This is because the water tree has not yet entered the conductor and thus there is no shorting current flowing through the tree yet. Between 80 and 100% water tree depth, it is observed that for both solutions there is a rapid decrease in resistance because the tree is now impacting the conductor shield and allowing shorting current to flow through it. The relationship between resistance and temperature was found to be inversed. As temperature increases, resistance decreases for both water tree solutions with distilled water having the most apparent difference across the range of temperatures simulated. With regards to water tree AR, resistance was found to be relatively independent at depth percentages of 10, 50, and 70, but there was some relationship at 100% depth for both solutions. At this depth, as water tree AR increased, resistance was found to also increase. Through the examination of voltage and electric field distribution plots, it was confirmed for EPR cables that increasing water tree depth leads to increasing distortion. The increase in shorting current at 100% depth for aqueous copper sulfate compared to distilled water was also visualized. Lastly, the relationship between shorting current and temperature for narrow water trees was visualized and validated using the distribution plots. This study has led to a better understanding of the effect of cable temperature, water tree solution, and geometry of the tree region on cable degradation. Furthermore, this study has documented simulation results of water tree degradation in EPR MV cables, which had been previously lacking in information. Future work in this area will add frequency into the mix and examine what effect it has on the rate of cable degradation as a result of water treeing. To compliment the work being carried by UMD on different polymer chemistries, harvested medium voltage (MV) cables were selected for accelerated aging study at ORNL. These medium voltage cables are representative of the vintages and materials that are currently in use at existing nuclear power plants (NPPs). These cables were immersed in water at 90°C and energized for a period of two years at elevated voltage. Partial discharge was measured during this period of time to track potential degradation. Unfortunately, due to the absence of failure, the extent of integration between the UMD techniques and the harvested MV insulation was limited. However, based on the findings and from the UMD research in the previous sections on polyethylene and polypropylene, follow-on characterization for harvested MV cable insulation should focus on sample preparation to take advantage of the UMD techniques to better understand mechanistic degradation in MV cable insulations. This would include: 1.) Utilization of solutions and impedance measurement insulation to track permeability in harvested and accelerated aging insulation samples, 2.) Adaptation of gold nanoparticle synthesis for electrical impedance spectroscopy with supporting SEM characterization to study pore formation in harvested and accelerated aged insulation samples, & 3.) ATR-FTIR crystallinity with multiple temperature dependent harvested MV cable insulation under different air and submerged accelerated aging. In addition, low voltage dielectric spectroscopy and high voltage dissipation factor, tan δ, could be implemented as a condition monitoring tool for harvested MV cable insulation in submerged environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Low-mass Population in the Young Cluster Stock 8: Stellar Properties and Initial Mass Function

The evolution of H ii regions/supershells can trigger a new generation of stars/clusters at their peripheries, with environmental conditions that may affect the initial mass function, disk evolution, and star formation efficiency. In this paper we study the stellar content and star formation processes in the young cluster Stock 8, which itself is thought to be formed during the expansion of a supershell. We present deep optical photometry along with JHK and 3.6 and 4.5 μ m photometry from UKIDSS and Spitzer -IRAC. We use multicolor criteria to identify the candidate young stellar objects in the region. Using evolutionary models, we obtain a median log(age) of ∼6.5 (∼3.0 Myr) with an observed age spread of ∼0.25 dex for the cluster. Monte Carlo simulations of the population of Stock 8, based on estimates for the photometric uncertainty, differential reddening, binarity, and variability, indicate that these uncertainties introduce an age spread of ∼0.15 dex. The intrinsic age spread in the cluster is ∼0.2 dex. The fraction of young stellar objects surrounded by disks is ∼35%. The K -band luminosity function of Stock 8 is similar to that of the Trapezium cluster. The initial mass function (IMF) of Stock 8 has a Salpeter-like slope at >0.5 M {sub ⊙} and flattens and peaks at ∼0.4 M {sub ⊙}, below which it declines into the substellar regime. Although Stock 8 is surrounded by several massive stars, there seems to be no severe environmental effect in the form of the IMF due to the proximity of massive stars around the cluster.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SU-E-J-10: Imaging Dose and Cancer Risk in Image-Guided Radiotherapy of Cancers

Purpose: To systematically evaluate imaging doses and cancer risks to organs-at-risk as a Result of cumulative doses from various radiological imaging procedures in image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) in a large cohort of cancer patients. Methods: With IRB approval, imaging procedures (computed tomography, kilo-voltage portal imaging, megavoltage portal imaging and kilo-voltage cone-beam computed tomography) of 4832 cancer patients treated during 4.5 years were collected with their gender, age and circumference. Correlations between patient’s circumference and Monte Carlo simulated-organ dose were applied to estimate organ doses while the cancer risks were reported as 1+ERR using BEIR VII models. Results: 80 cGy or more doses were deposited to brain, lungs and RBM in 273 patients (maximum 136, 278 and 267 cGy, respectively), due largely to repetitive imaging procedures and non-personalized imaging settings. Regardless of gender, relative cancer risk estimates for brain, lungs, and RBM were 3.4 (n = 55), 2.6 (n = 49), 1.8 (n = 25) for age group of 0–19; 1.2 (n = 87), 1.4 (n = 98), 1.3 (n = 51) for age group of 20–39; 1.0 (n = 457), 1.1 (n = 880), 1.8 (n=360) for age group of 40–59; 1.0 (n = 646), 1.1 (n = 1400), 2.3 (n = 716) for age group of 60–79 and 1.0 (n = 108),1.1 (n = 305),1.6 (n = 147) for age group of 80–99. Conclusion: The cumulative imaging doses and associated cancer risks from multi-imaging procedures were patient-specific and site-dependent, with up to 2.7 Gy imaging dose deposited to critical structures in some pediatric patients. The associated cancer risks in brain and lungs for children of age 0 to 19 were 2–3 times larger than those for adults. This study indicated a pressing need for personalized imaging protocol to maximize its clinical benefits while reducing associated cancer risks. Sichuan University Scholarship.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Local patient dose diagnostic reference levels in pediatric interventional cardiology in Chile using age bands and patient weight values

Purpose: To present the results of a patient dose evaluation program in pediatric cardiology and propose local diagnostic reference levels (DRLs) for different types of procedure and age range, in addition to suggesting approaches to correlate patient dose values with patient weight. This study was the first conducted in Latin America for pediatric interventional cardiology under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Methods: Over three years, the following data regarding demographic and patient dose values were collected: age, gender, weight, height, number of cine series, total number of cine frames, fluoroscopy time (FT), and two dosimetric quantities, dose-area product (DAP) and cumulative dose (CD), at the patient entrance reference point. The third quartile values for FT, DAP, CD, number of cine series, and the DAP/body weight ratio were proposed as the set of quantities to use as local DRLs. Results: Five hundred and seventeen patients were divided into four age groups. Sample sizes by age group were 120 for <1 yr; 213 for 1 to <5 yr; 82 for 5 to <10 yr; and 102 for 10 to <16 yr. The third quartile values obtained for DAP by diagnostic and therapeutic procedures and age range were 1.17 and 1.11 Gy cm{sup 2} for <1 yr; 1.74 and 1.90 Gy cm{sup 2} for 1 to <5 yr; 2.83 and 3.22 Gy cm{sup 2} for 5 to <10 yr; and 7.34 and 8.68 Gy cm{sup 2} for 10 to <16 yr, respectively. The third quartile value obtained for the DAP/body weight ratio for the full sample of procedures was 0.17 (Gy cm{sup 2}/kg) for diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. Conclusions: The data presented in this paper are an initial attempt at establishing local DRLs in pediatric interventional cardiology, from a large sample of procedures for the standard age bands used in Europe, complemented with the values of the ratio between DAP and patient weight. This permits a rough estimate of DRLs for different patient weights and the refining of these values for the age bands when there may be large differences in child size. These DRLs were obtained at the largest pediatric hospital in Chile, with an active optimization program, and could be used by other hospitals in the Latin America region to compare their current patient dose values and determine whether corrective action is appropriate.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Updated Results for the Wake Vortex Inverse Model

NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA) has developed an Inverse Model for inverting aircraft wake vortex data. The objective of the inverse modeling is to obtain estimates of the vortex circulation decay and crosswind vertical profiles, using time history measurements of the lateral and vertical position of aircraft vortices. The Inverse Model performs iterative forward model runs using estimates of vortex parameters, vertical crosswind profiles, and vortex circulation as a function of wake age. Iterations are performed until a user-defined criterion is satisfied. Outputs from an Inverse Model run are the best estimates of the time history of the vortex circulation derived from the observed data, the vertical crosswind profile, and several vortex parameters. The forward model, named SHRAPA, used in this inverse modeling is a modified version of the Shear-APA model, and it is described in Section 2 of this document. Details of the Inverse Model are presented in Section 3. The Inverse Model was applied to lidar-observed vortex data at three airports: FAA acquired data from San Francisco International Airport (SFO) and Denver International Airport (DEN), and NASA acquired data from Memphis International Airport (MEM). The results are compared with observed data. This Inverse Model validation is documented in Section 4. A summary is given in Section 5. A user's guide for the inverse wake vortex model is presented in a separate NorthWest Research Associates technical report (Lai and Delisi, 2007a).

Robins, Robert E.↗

Overall and cause‐specific mortality in the Sentinel system: A power analysis

Abstract Purpose Mortality data within the Sentinel Death Tables remain generally uncharacterized. Assessment of mortality data within Sentinel will help inform its utility for medical product safety studies. Methods To determine if Sentinel contains sufficient all‐cause and cause‐specific mortality events to power postmarketing safety studies. We calculated crude rates of all‐cause mortality and suicide and proportional mortality from suicide from 2004 to 2012 in seven Sentinel data partners. Results were stratified by data partner, sex, age group, and calendar year and compared with national estimates from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide‐ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research. We performed sample size estimations for all‐cause mortality and 10 leading causes of death. Results We observed 479 694 deaths, including 5811 suicides, during 68 million person‐years of follow‐up. Pooled mean death and suicide rates in the data partners were 710 and 8.6 per 100 000 person‐years, respectively (vs 810 and 11.8 nationally). The mean proportional mortality from suicide among the data partners was 1.2%, compared with 1.5% nationally. National trends of decreasing overall mortality and increasing proportional mortality for suicide were reflected within Sentinel. We estimated that detecting hazard ratios of 1.25 and 3 would require 16 442 and 460 exposed patients, respectively, for overall mortality, and 1.3 million and 37 411, respectively, for suicide. Conclusions This was the first study to investigate mortality data in the Sentinel death tables. We found that all‐cause mortality appeared well powered for use as a safety outcome and cause‐specific mortality outcomes may be adequately powered in certain circumstances. Further investigation into the quality of the Sentinel death data is needed.

Swain, Richard S.↗

Clinical Outcomes of Image Guided Adaptive Hypofractionated Weekly Radiation Therapy for Bladder Cancer in Patients Unsuitable for Radical Treatment

Purpose and Objectives: We report on the clinical outcomes of a phase 2 study assessing image guided hypofractionated weekly radiation therapy in bladder cancer patients unsuitable for radical treatment. Methods and Materials: Fifty-five patients with T2-T4aNx-2M0-1 bladder cancer not suitable for cystectomy or daily radiation therapy treatment were recruited. A “plan of the day” radiation therapy approach was used, treating the whole (empty) bladder to 36 Gy in 6 weekly fractions. Acute toxicity was assessed weekly during radiation therapy, at 6 and 12 weeks using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. Late toxicity was assessed at 6 months and 12 months using Radiation Therapy Oncology Group grading. Cystoscopy was used to assess local control at 3 months. Cumulative incidence function was used to determine local progression at 1 at 2 years. Death without local progression was treated as a competing risk. Overall survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Median age was 86 years (range, 68-97 years). Eighty-seven percent of patients completed their prescribed course of radiation therapy. Genitourinary and gastrointestinal grade 3 acute toxicity was seen in 18% (10/55) and 4% (2/55) of patients, respectively. No grade 4 genitourinary or gastrointestinal toxicity was seen. Grade ≥3 late toxicity (any) at 6 and 12 months was seen in 6.5% (2/31) and 4.3% (1/23) of patients, respectively. Local control after radiation therapy was 92% of assessed patients (60% total population). Cumulative incidence of local progression at 1 year and 2 years for all patients was 7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2%-17%) and 17% (95% CI 8%-29%), respectively. Overall survival at 1 year was 63% (95% CI 48%-74%). Conclusion: Hypofractionated radiation therapy delivered weekly with a plan of the day approach offers good local control with acceptable toxicity in a patient population not suitable for radical bladder treatment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Impact of Extreme Heat on Emergency Department Admissions for Childhood and Adult Asthma: An Evaluation of Earth Observations and Heat Wave Definitions

Extreme heat has been associated with adverse health outcomes, yet its impact on asthma exacerbations remains understudied. This is, in part, due to data limitations: research that relies on weather station records and aggregated health statistics cannot resolve fine-scale differences in heat impacts. This study investigates the association between heat wave definitions and summertime asthma-related emergency department visits in Baltimore, Maryland from 2016 to 2022, including 819 adult and 695 pediatric exacerbations. Using geocoded electronic health records and air temperature measurements at several spatial resolutions, we applied a case-crossover design with conditional logistic regressions at the census block group and tract levels. We found strong associations between asthma exacerbations and nighttime heat wave definitions based on relative thresholds of minimum temperatures when census block group or tract level temperature estimates were used. These relationships were significant for both age groups and showed elevated risks in socially vulnerable areas. In contrast, heat wave definitions derived from the city's primary National Weather Service synoptic weather station show associations between asthma and daytime heat extremes, suggesting that the character of the heat hazard depends on the scale at which it is defined. The extreme heat event definition used by Baltimore City's Code Red system showed no significant association with exacerbations. These findings highlight the importance of data resolution in shaping health inferences related to extreme heat in urban environments. Further, this study demonstrates that, regardless of spatial scale, extreme heat is associated with asthma exacerbations in both age groups.

Corpuz, B. [Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, M↗