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On-the-fly closed-loop materials discovery via Bayesian active learning

Active learning—the field of machine learning (ML) dedicated to optimal experiment design—has played a part in science as far back as the 18th century when Laplace used it to guide his discovery of celestial mechanics. In this work, we focus a closed-loop, active learning-driven autonomous system on another major challenge, the discovery of advanced materials against the exceedingly complex synthesis-processes-structure-property landscape. We demonstrate an autonomous materials discovery methodology for functional inorganic compounds which allow scientists to fail smarter, learn faster, and spend less resources in their studies, while simultaneously improving trust in scientific results and machine learning tools. This robot science enables science-over-the-network, reducing the economic impact of scientists being physically separated from their labs. The real-time closed-loop, autonomous system for materials exploration and optimization (CAMEO) is implemented at the synchrotron beamline to accelerate the interconnected tasks of phase mapping and property optimization, with each cycle taking seconds to minutes. We also demonstrate an embodiment of human-machine interaction, where human-in-the-loop is called to play a contributing role within each cycle. This work has resulted in the discovery of a novel epitaxial nanocomposite phase-change memory material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modular Autonomous Experimentation for Biological Applications

The Modular Autonomous Research System (MARS) was created to address a key challenge in scientific discovery: experiments are often slow, require significant manual labor, and generate data that is not easily integrated across different tools. This limits how quickly scientists can explore new materials, processes, and chemical reactions. Our motivation was to design a system that makes research faster, more reliable, and adaptable by combining automation with artificial intelligence. By doing so, we aimed to reduce human error, accelerate discovery, and allow researchers to quickly test many possibilities that would otherwise take months or years. Our approach was to build a flexible platform that connects laboratory robots, measurement instruments, and a central data system, all guided by artificial intelligence. MARS integrates liquid handling robots, robotic arms, and plate readers with an intelligent decision-making system that chooses the most informative experiments to run next. This creates a closed loop where experiments are performed automatically, the data is analyzed in real time, and new conditions are immediately tested. Through this work, we demonstrated that MARS can carry out multiple experiments with little or no human intervention, adapt to different scientific problems, and handle uncertain or noisy measurements in a robust way. The results show that modular and intelligent automation can significantly accelerate the pace of discovery, providing a model for future self-driving laboratories. This approach addresses the growing scientific need for adaptable, data-driven research platforms that can keep up with the complexity and scale of modern science.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Shutdown Dose Rate in Fusion Energy Systems Using Hybrid Monte Carlo/Deterministic Techniques - Paper 138

Accurate assessments of shutdown dose rate (SDDR) are critical to support operation, maintenance, and waste disposal planning and to guide possible design changes of critical components in fusion energy systems. An SDDR calculation involves three steps: 1. a neutron transport calculation to determine the space and energy neutron flux distributions, 2. an activation calculation for computing the photon source distribution, and 3. a photon transport calculation for the estimation of the final SDDR. A companion paper describes the challenges of SDDR computations in fusion energy systems and the status of the techniques that are currently being used in SDDR analysis. Of these techniques, the rigorous 2-step (R2S) computational system entails Monte Carlo (MC) neutron and photon transport calculations coupled with a comprehensive activation step using a dedicated inventory code and library. The use of global MC variance reduction techniques was suggested for accelerating the SDDR MC neutron transport calculation. These techniques, which attempt to calculate MC tallies with nearly uniform relative uncertainties in both the low-flux space-energy regions and the high-flux space-energy regions, do not preferentially focus the MC computational efforts toward space-energy regions of high importance to the final decay dose. The ability of these approaches to accurately predict SDDR is inhibited by their prohibitive computational costs, which will be on the order of thousands of processor-years for full-scale modeling of an entire fusion plant. The companion paper describes the theoretical background of the Multi-Step Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling (MS-CADIS) method, which has been proposed to speed up SDDR MC neutron calculations. The MS-CADIS method uses the CADIS method, which has been successfully used for more than a decade in shielding calculations, but focuses on multistep shielding calculations such as SDDR analyses. The companion paper also describes a new method for calculating the uncertainties in SDDR due to uncertainties in the MC neutron calculation. This new method of uncertainty propagation uses the MS-CADIS neutron adjoint source to propagate the uncertainties in the neutron fluxes to the SDDR. This paper describes the application of the MS-CADIS method for speeding up the SDDR MC calculations and for calculating the SDDR uncertainty due to the neutron flux uncertainties. A new metric for assessing the reliability of SDDR calculations was also suggested and used in this analysis. The ITER benchmark problem was used in this analysis. The problem resembles the configuration and geometrical arrangement of an upper port plug in ITER. The analysis compared the efficiency of the MS-CADIS method to the traditional approach of using global MC variance reduction techniques for speeding up SDDR MC neutron calculation. The application of the MS-CADIS method to SDDR calculations in fusion energy systems was tested using the ITER benchmark problem. Compared to the standard FW-CADIS method, the increase in the efficiency of the SDDR neutron MC calculation due to the use of the MS-CADIS method was between 18% and 69%. The MS-CADIS method also increases the fraction of non-zero-scoring mesh tally elements in the space-energy regions of high importance to the final SDDR. Implementation of the MS-CADIS method in the SCALE and the ADVANTG code systems is currently under way. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NEXTorch: A Design and Bayesian Optimization Toolkit for Chemical Sciences and Engineering

Automation and optimization of chemical systems require well-informed decisions on what experiments to run to reduce time, materials, and/or computations. Data-driven active learning algorithms have emerged as valuable tools to solve such tasks. Bayesian optimization, a sequential global optimization approach, is a popular active-learning framework. Past studies have demonstrated its efficiency in solving chemistry and engineering problems. Here we introduce NEXTorch, a library in Python/PyTorch, to facilitate laboratory or computational design using Bayesian optimization. NEXTorch offers fast predictive modeling, flexible optimization loops, visualization capabilities, easy interfacing with legacy software, and multiple types of parameters and data type conversions. It provides GPU acceleration, parallelization, and state-of-the-art Bayesian optimization algorithms and supports both automated an d human-in-the-loop optimization. The comprehensive online documentation introduces Bayesian optimization theory and several examples from catalyst synthesis, reaction condition optimization, parameter estimation, and reactor geometry optimization. NEXTorch is open-source and available on GitHub

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

How Does Water Dissociation Work in Bipolar Membranes?

Bipolar membranes (BPMs) create counteracting spatial gradients of pH and electrostatic potential in electrochemical systems, enabling applications in pH regulation, electrocatalysis, and separations. At the polarized junction of a BPM the water dissociation (WD, 2H2O ⇌ H3O+ + OH-) reaction can be driven, but it remains poorly understood. In this Perspective, we integrate molecular insights from bulk-water autoionization and the associated field effects with continuum descriptions of BPM electrostatics and experimental WD kinetic analyses to describe possible mechanisms of voltage-driven WD. Pristine BPM junctions highlight both the limits of primarily electric-field-driven WD and the practical challenges of junction stability at extreme reverse bias. Introducing heterogeneous catalyst layers, commonly metal oxides and graphene oxides, accelerates WD by orders of magnitude through hypothesized coupled effects in which surface acid-base functionality and high-density hydroxyl sites mediate proton-transfer steps, and catalyst mobile electronic/ionic charges redistribute the junction electric potential drop to shape the local electric fields and reactive microenvironments. Kinetic analyses suggest two regimes of heterogeneous WD mechanism, including field-driven ordering of interfacial water and a Second-Wien-Effect dissociation-barrier lowering. We conclude by defining the key unknown variables (local pH, electrostatic potential, catalyst charge state and relationships among mechanisms) and outlining experimental and multiscale modeling strategies needed for predictive WD catalysis and for controlling related ion-transfer reactions.

Wu, Yifan↗

Development of versatile multiaperture negative ion sources

Enhancement of negative ion sources for production of large ion beams is a very active research field nowadays, driven from demand of plasma heating in nuclear fusion devices and accelerator applications. As a versatile test bench, the ion source NIO1 (Negative Ion Optimization 1) is being commissioned by Consorzio RFX and INFN. The nominal beam current of 135 mA at −60 kV is divided into 9 beamlets, with multiaperture extraction electrodes. The plasma is sustained by a 2 MHz radiofrequency power supply, with a standard matching box. A High Voltage Deck (HVD) placed inside the lead shielding surrounding NIO1 contains the radiofrequency generator, the gas control, electronics and power supplies for the ion source. An autonomous closed circuit water cooling system was installed for the whole system, with a branch towards the HVD, using carefully optimized helical tubing. Insulation transformer is installed in a nearby box. Tests of several magnetic configurations can be performed. Status of experiments, measured spectra and plasma luminosity are described. Upgrades of magnetic filter, beam calorimeter and extraction grid and related theoretical issues are reviewed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Ambient-temperature liquid jet targets for high-repetition-rate HED discovery science

High-power lasers can generate energetic particle beams and astrophysically relevant pressure and temperature states in the high-energy-density (HED) regime. Recently-commissioned high-repetition-rate (HRR) laser drivers are capable of producing these conditions at rates exceeding 1 Hz. However, experimental output from these systems is often limited by the difficulty of designing targets that match these repetition rates. To overcome this challenge, we have developed tungsten microfluidic nozzles, which produce a continuously replenishing jet that operates at flow speeds of approximately 10 m/s and can sustain shot frequencies up to 1 kHz. The ambient-temperature planar liquid jets produced by these nozzles can have thicknesses ranging from hundreds of nanometers to tens of micrometers. In this work, we illustrate the operational principle of the microfluidic nozzle and describe its implementation in a vacuum environment. Further, we provide evidence of successful laser-driven ion acceleration using this target and discuss the prospect of optimizing the ion acceleration performance through an in situ jet thickness scan. Future applications for the jet throughout HED science include shock compression and studies of strongly heated nonequilibrium plasmas. When fielded in concert with HRR-compatible laser, diagnostic, and active feedback technology, this target will facilitate advanced automated studies in HRR HED science, including machine learning-based optimization and high-dimensional statistical analysis.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

STRONG EROSION-DRIVEN NONGRAVITATIONAL EFFECTS IN ORBITAL MOTIONS OF THE KREUTZ SUNGRAZING SYSTEM’S DWARF COMETS

We investigate the relationships among the angular orbital elements—the longitude of the ascending node Ω, the inclination i, and the argument of perihelion ω—of the Kreutz system’s faint, dwarf sungrazers observed only with the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/STEREO coronagraphs; their published orbits were derived using a parabolic, purely gravitational approximation. In a plot of i against Ω the bright Kreutz sungrazers (such as C/1843 D1, C/1882 R1, C/1963 R1, etc.) fit a curve of fixed apsidal orientation, whereas the dwarf members are distributed along a curve that makes with the apsidal curve an angle of 15°. The dwarf sungrazers’ perihelion longitude is statistically invariable, but their perihelion latitude increases systematically with Ω. We find that this trend can be explained by a strong erosion-driven nongravitational acceleration normal to the orbit plane, confirmed for several test dwarf Kreutz sungrazers by orbital solutions with nongravitational terms incorporated directly in the equations of motion on a condition of fixed apsidal orientation. Proceeding in three steps, we first apply Marsden et al.'s standard formalism, solving for the normal acceleration only, and eventually relax additional constraints on the nongravitational law and the acceleration’s radial and transverse components. The resulting nongravitational accelerations on the dwarf sungrazers exceed the maximum for cataloged comets in nearly parabolic orbits by up to three orders of magnitude, topping in exceptional cases the Sun’s gravitational acceleration! A mass-loss model suggests that the dwarf sungrazers’ nuclei fragment copiously and their dimensions diminish rapidly near the Sun, implying the objects’ imminent demise shortly before they reach perihelion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Uncertainty-Driven Rapid Thermodynamic Assessment of Nb-Ta-Zr System and Effects of C impurities (L25GF9298S): Annual Progress Report

An integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) method is in development for rapid thermodynamic experimental investigation and high-fidelity computational modeling of refractory multi-principal element alloys (RMPEAs). These ultra-high-temperature (UHT) alloys are of interest for structural applications in extreme environments, but deficiency of reliable data, especially melting temperatures, impedes the prediction of alloys with favorable properties. The method leverages UHT capabilities and computational expertise of LLNL’s Materials Science Division and the McCormack Lab’s UHT conical nozzle levitation (CNL) system to iteratively map the Nb-Ta-Zr phase space, with focus on the liquidus surface, through targeted experiments selected by quantifying uncertainty in the thermodynamic model fitting parameters. This method will reduce the time to map uncharted RMPEA phase space and thereby accelerate discovery and development of advanced materials for applications in extreme environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tree mycorrhizal type predicts within‐site variability in the storage and distribution of soil organic matter

Abstract Forest soils store large amounts of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), yet how predicted shifts in forest composition will impact long‐term C and N persistence remains poorly understood. A recent hypothesis predicts that soils under trees associated with arbuscular mycorrhizas ( AM ) store less C than soils dominated by trees associated with ectomycorrhizas ( ECM ), due to slower decomposition in ECM ‐dominated forests. However, an incipient hypothesis predicts that systems with rapid decomposition—e.g. most AM ‐dominated forests—enhance soil organic matter ( SOM ) stabilization by accelerating the production of microbial residues. To address these contrasting predictions, we quantified soil C and N to 1 m depth across gradients of ECM ‐dominance in three temperate forests. By focusing on sites where AM ‐ and ECM ‐plants co‐occur, our analysis controls for climatic factors that covary with mycorrhizal dominance across broad scales. We found that while ECM stands contain more SOM in topsoil, AM stands contain more SOM when subsoil to 1 m depth is included. Biomarkers and soil fractionations reveal that these patterns are driven by an accumulation of microbial residues in AM ‐dominated soils. Collectively, our results support emerging theory on SOM formation, demonstrate the importance of subsurface soils in mediating plant effects on soil C and N, and indicate that shifts in the mycorrhizal composition of temperate forests may alter the stabilization of SOM .

Craig, Matthew E.↗

Comparison Between Infrared Optical and Stereoscopic X-Ray Technologies for Patient Setup in Image Guided Stereotactic Radiotherapy

Purpose: To compare infrared (IR) optical vs. stereoscopic X-ray technologies for patient setup in image-guided stereotactic radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: Retrospective data analysis of 233 fractions in 127 patients treated with hypofractionated stereotactic radiotherapy was performed. Patient setup at the linear accelerator was carried out by means of combined IR optical localization and stereoscopic X-ray image fusion in 6 degrees of freedom (6D). Data were analyzed to evaluate the geometric and dosimetric discrepancy between the two patient setup strategies. Results: Differences between IR optical localization and 6D X-ray image fusion parameters were on average within the expected localization accuracy, as limited by CT image resolution (3 mm). A disagreement between the two systems below 1 mm in all directions was measured in patients treated for cranial tumors. In extracranial sites, larger discrepancies and higher variability were observed as a function of the initial patient alignment. The compensation of IR-detected rotational errors resulted in a significantly improved agreement with 6D X-ray image fusion. On the basis of the bony anatomy registrations, the measured differences were found not to be sensitive to patient breathing. The related dosimetric analysis showed that IR-based patient setup caused limited variations in three cases, with 7% maximum dose reduction in the clinical target volume and no dose increase in organs at risk. Conclusions: In conclusion, patient setup driven by IR external surrogates localization in 6D featured comparable accuracy with respect to procedures based on stereoscopic X-ray imaging.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Uncovering novel liquid organic hydrogen carriers: a systematic exploration of chemical compound space using cheminformatics and quantum chemical methods

We present a comprehensive, in silico-based discovery approach to identifying novel liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC) candidates using cheminformatics methods and quantum chemical calculations. We screened over 160 billion molecules from ZINC15 and GDB-17 chemical databases for structural similarity to known LOHCs and employed a data-driven selection criterion connecting molecular features with dehydrogenation enthalpy. This scoring criterion effectively predicts dehydrogenation enthalpies from SMILES strings, streamlining the LOHC screening process. After rigorous screening and down-selection, we compiled a database of 3000 dehydrogenation reactions for the most promising LOHC candidates, setting the stage for future selection based on kinetics and catalysis. This work demonstrates the significant impact of integrating quantum chemistry and cheminformatics in materials discovery, accelerating the selection process while reducing experimental efforts and time. By proposing new molecules as prospective LOHC candidates, our study provides a valuable resource for researchers and engineers in the development of advanced LOHC systems and showcases a successful approach for high-throughput discovery, contributing to more efficient and sustainable energy storage solutions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Preliminary neutronics design of china lead-alloy cooled demonstration reactor (CLEAR-III) for nuclear waste transmutation

China Lead-Alloy cooled Demonstration Reactor (CLEAR-III), which is the concept of lead-bismuth cooled accelerator driven sub-critical reactor for nuclear waste transmutation, was proposed and designed by FDS team in China. In this study, preliminary neutronics design studies have primarily focused on three important performance parameters including Transmutation Support Ratio (TSR), effective multiplication factor and blanket thermal power. The constraint parameters, such as power peaking factor and initial TRU loading, were also considered. In the specific design, uranium-free metallic dispersion fuel of (TRU-Zr)-Zr was used as one of the CLEAR-III fuel types and the ratio between MA and Pu was adjusted to maximize transmutation ratio. In addition, three different fuel zones differing in the TRU fraction of the fuel were respectively employed for this subcritical reactor, and the zone sizes and TRU fractions were determined such that the linear powers of these zones were close to each other. The neutronics calculations and analyses were performed by using Multi-Functional 4D Neutronics Simulation System named VisualBUS and nuclear data library HENDL (Hybrid Evaluated Nuclear Data Library). In the preliminary design, the maximum TSRLLMA was {approx}11 and the blanket thermal power was {approx}1000 MW when the effective multiplication factor was 0.98. The results showed that good performance of transmutation could be achieved based on the subcritical reactor loaded with uranium-free fuel. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Impacts of non-residential solar on residential adoption decisions

Household decisions to adopt rooftop solar photovoltaics are partly driven by social influence. Previous research on solar adoption influence has focused on influence among residential peers. Here, we expand the framework of solar adoption influence by exploring the influence of non-residential installations on residential adoption decisions. We use staggered differences-in-differences to estimate non-residential influence effects using a large data sample of residential adoptions. We also critically evaluate prevailing frameworks for solar adoption influence. We find that non-residential installations are associated with accelerated residential adoption rates, on the order of 0.4 additional residential adoptions per quarter per non-residential installation. We show that non-residential systems exert a continuous, long-term influence on residential adoption decisions. We explore separate results and influence mechanisms for solar installed on commercial buildings, government buildings, and houses of worship. The results suggest that non-residential solar adopters could serve as partners in policies to “seed” residential adoption in underserved communities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Kinetic Simulations of Electron Pre-energization by Magnetized Collisionless Shocks in Expanding Laboratory Plasmas

Collisionless shocks are common features in space and astrophysical systems where supersonic plasma flows interact, such as in the solar wind, the heliopause, and supernova remnants. Recent experimental capabilities and diagnostics allow detailed laboratory investigations of high-Mach-number shocks, which therefore can become a valuable way to understand shock dynamics in various astrophysical environments. Using 2D particle-in-cell simulations with a Coulomb binary collision operator, we demonstrate the mechanism for generation of energetic electrons and experimental requirements for detecting this process in the laboratory high-Mach-number collisionless shocks. We show through a parameter study that electron acceleration by magnetized collisionless shocks is feasible in laboratory experiments with laser-driven expanding plasmas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

One-Dimensional, Two-Phase Flow Modeling Toward Interpreting Motor Slag Expulsion Phenomena

Aluminum oxide slag accumulation and expulsion was previously shown to be a player in various solid rocket motor phenomena, including the Space Shuttle's Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) pressure perturbation, or "blip," and phantom moment. In the latter case, such un ]commanded side accelerations near the end of burn have also been identified in several other motor systems. However, efforts to estimate the mass expelled during a given event have come up short. Either bulk calculations are performed without enough physics present, or multiphase, multidimensional Computational Fluid Dynamic analyses are performed that give a snapshot in time and space but do not always aid in grasping the general principle. One ]dimensional, two ]phase compressible flow calculations yield an analytical result for nozzle flow under certain assumptions. This can be carried further to relate the bulk motor parameters of pressure, thrust, and mass flow rate under the different exhaust conditions driven by the addition of condensed phase mass flow. An unknown parameter is correlated to airflow testing with water injection where mass flow rates and pressure are known. Comparison is also made to full ]scale static test motor data where thrust and pressure changes are known and similar behavior is shown. The end goal is to be able to include the accumulation and flow of slag in internal ballistics predictions. This will allow better prediction of the tailoff when much slag is ejected and of mass retained versus time, believed to be a contributor to the widely-observed "flight knockdown" parameter.

Kibbey, Timothy P.↗

Particle Energization via Tearing Instability with Global Self-Organization Constraints

The presentation reviews how tearing magnetic reconnection leads to powerful ion energization in reversed field pinch (RFP) plasmas. A mature MHD model for tearing instability has been developed that captures key nonlinear dynamics from the global to intermediate spatial scales. A turbulent cascade is also present that extends to at least the ion gyroradius scale, within which important particle energization mechanisms are anticipated. In summary, Ion heating and acceleration associated with magnetic reconnection from tearing instability is a powerful process in the RFP laboratory plasma (gyro-resonant and stochastic processes are likely candidates to support the observed rapid heating and other features, reconnection-driven electron heating appears weaker or even absent, energetic tail formation for ions and electrons). Global self-organization strongly impacts particle energization (tearing interactions that span to core to edge, global magnetic flux change produces a larger electric field and runaway, correlations in electric and magnetic field fluctuations needed for dynamo feedback, impact of transport processes (which can be quite different for ions and electrons), inhomogeneity on the system scale, e.g., strong edge gradients).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Analysis of Launch Vehicle Liftoff Debris: Historical Perspective from Space Shuttle and Application to Artemis I

Human exploration-class launch vehicles are inherently prone to debris due to the extreme environments generated during pre-launch operations, liftoff, and flight. The use of cryogenic propellants often requires thermal protection system (TPS) coatings, typically foam, to maintain the propellant conditions in the tank and prevent an accumulation ice on the external surface of the vehicle. Some ice growth is to be expected at umbilical interfaces, vents, flanges, or brackets where it is difficult to apply TPS. This ice may come loose at any time due to wind on the launch pad, structural vibration and acoustics after rocket ignition, or aerodynamic forces during flight. This phenomena is especially apparent on vehicles with no TPS, such as the Saturn V rockets used in the Apollo Program, see Figure 1. During propellant tanking, the thermal contraction of the underlying substrate may generate cracks in the TPS (Figure 1). Chunks of TPS can release due to the expansion of ingested gas from cryopumping or from aerodynamic forces if the crack creates an offset surface. Most foams will also have a certain amount of “popcorning” where small pieces of foam will pop off during flight because of the differential between the static surface pressure and the pressure of the gas trapped in the foam cell structure. There are a number of other coating or closeout materials that may be shed from the vehicle and become debris. During pre-launch operations and liftoff, the vehicle may also be exposed to debris originating from the launch pad or ground support equipment. This debris is separate from foreign object debris, or FOD, which is not intended to be present and is strictly controlled through operations and maintenance procedures. In this case, debris is generated from hardware and materials that are necessary for launch and are subject to the intense vibration, acoustics, and direct plume impingement of the launch environment. Examples include ice from umbilicals, tape and tie wraps that protect cables, and rust or corrosion from the launch platform. While NASA has historically been aware of debris as a potential issue that could cause a failure resulting in loss of mission, loss of vehicle, or loss of crew, the likelihood and severity of that risk was not always well understood or given sufficient weight in program and flight decisions. After the Space Shuttle Columbia accident (STS-107), the investigation found that foam TPS debris shed from the external tank was the proximate cause of the damage to the orbiter wing. Six previous observations of debris released from the foam ramp that covered the bipod connecting the forward end of the orbiter to the external tank resulted in minor changes or were determined to be accepted flight risks. Two occurrences of bipod ramp foam loss were not identified until the STS-107 investigation. Despite the damage inflicted by these debris strikes, the Shuttle Program Requirements Control Board deemed the vehicle safe to fly. During the Return to Flight effort following the Columbia disaster, NASA Engineering developed a process for the assessment of debris transport, impact, and damage tolerance to support independent assessments of risk by NASA Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA). Under this system, each element (vehicle or ground system) defines a catalog of all expected debris based on launch history, component testing, or analysis. Debris transport analysis (DTA) is conducted using the debris catalog characteristics and potential flow transport mechanisms (e.g., vehicle aerodynamics, gravity, wind, plume-driven). The predicted debris impact locations and velocities are provided to the hardware owners, who use available test data and analysis to determine whether each component can withstand the impacts. In cases where the element hardware may be severely damaged or fail, the options are to mitigate the debris source through some change in design or operation, or to work with S&MA to try to characterize the probability of the impact and damage for program risk acceptance. Because of the differences in debris characteristics and transport, the DTA has been divided between the Liftoff and Ascent regimes. The development and application of Liftoff DTA methodology from the Shuttle Program to the current Artemis Program is the subject of this paper. Liftoff DTA covers the time from the start of pre-launch operations at the launch pad, up until the vehicle clears the launch tower and there is no longer any interaction with ground systems. Debris transport during this period is broadly classified as either gravity, wind, and plume-entrained (GWPE) or plume driven (PD). GWPE debris is generally lower speed, travelling in a forward-to-aft direction. PD transport includes flow features from the rocket ignition transient, as well as plume impingement and recirculation that occur as the vehicle lifts off the launch platform. In these cases, the debris typically moves in an aft-to-forward direction at higher speeds. The applicable transport mechanisms must be considered for each piece of debris depending on the material, and release location and time. For example, rust or metallic debris from the tower could fall (GWPE) and impact the vehicle before landing on the launch platform deck where it could be also be transported by plume impingement (PD). However, falling ice (GWPE) from an umbilical is unlikely to survive impact with the vehicle or launch platform and be available for PD transport. Modeling of debris transport is accomplished using a set of DTA tools which simulate debris trajectories subject to a reference frame acceleration (i.e., gravity) and aerodynamic drag. Where the trajectory encounters a solid surface, the debris is allowed to rebound with a specified coefficient of restitution. The drag is calculated by interpolating the fluid state at each point in the debris trajectory from high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the launch vehicle and pad. The CFD data may either be static (steady state or time averaged), typically for GWPE transport, or dynamic (time-accurate) for PD flow features like the ignition transient. Examples of the CFD flow field solutions for the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and launch pad are shown in Figure 2. Typical SLS debris trajectory predictions from DTA are illustrated in Figure 3. The final version of this paper will include a more detailed examination of the Liftoff DTA process developed during the Shuttle Program, and how it has been augmented and applied to the SLS rocket under the Artemis Program. Comparisons with debris observations from the Artemis I launch will demonstrate validation of the tools and methodology.

Debris↗