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At least 703 records · Page 39

ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model

Abstract. The future retreat rate for marine-based regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in sea-level projections. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) aims to improve projections and quantify uncertainties by running an ensemble of ice sheet models with atmosphere and ocean forcing derived from global climate models. Here, the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is used to run ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Using multiple combinations of sub-ice-shelf melt parameterizations and calibrations, CISM is spun up to steady state over many millennia. During the spin-up, basal friction parameters and basin-scale thermal forcing corrections are adjusted to optimize agreement with the observed ice thickness. The model is then run forward for 550 years, from 1950–2500, applying ocean thermal forcing anomalies from six climate models. In all simulations, the ocean forcing triggers long-term retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially in the Filchner–Ronne and Ross sectors. Mass loss accelerates late in the 21st century and then rises steadily for several centuries without leveling off. The resulting ocean-forced sea-level rise at year 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm, depending on the melt scheme and ocean forcing. Further experiments show relatively high sensitivity to the basal friction law, moderate sensitivity to grid resolution and the prescribed collapse of small ice shelves, and low sensitivity to the stress-balance approximation. The Amundsen sector exhibits threshold behavior, with modest retreat under many parameter settings but complete collapse under some combinations of low basal friction and high thermal forcing anomalies. Large uncertainties remain, as a result of parameterized sub-shelf melt rates, simplified treatments of calving and basal friction, and the lack of ice–ocean coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Continuous Intercomparison of Radiation Codes (CIRC): Phase I Cases

CIRC aspires to be the successor to ICRCCM (Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models). It is envisioned as an evolving and regularly updated reference source for GCM-type radiative transfer (RT) code evaluation with the principle goal to contribute in the improvement of RT parameterizations. CIRC is jointly endorsed by DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and the GEWEX Radiation Panel (GRP). CIRC's goal is to provide test cases for which GCM RT algorithms should be performing at their best, i.e, well characterized clear-sky and homogeneous, overcast cloudy cases. What distinguishes CIRC from previous intercomparisons is that its pool of cases is based on observed datasets. The bulk of atmospheric and surface input as well as radiative fluxes come from ARM observations as documented in the Broadband Heating Rate Profile (BBHRP) product. BBHRP also provides reference calculations from AER's RRTM RT algorithms that can be used to select the most optimal set of cases and to provide a first-order estimate of our ability to achieve radiative flux closure given the limitations in our knowledge of the atmospheric state.

Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗

The effects of small ice crystals on cirrus infrared radiative properties

Using a model that combines single-scattering properties for spheroidal and hexagonal ice crystals, the thermal infrared radiative properties of cirrus clouds have been investigated. Infrared scattering and absorption properties for randomly oriented spheroids and hexagons are parameterized based on the anomalous diffraction theory and a geometric ray-tracing method, respectively. Using observed ice crystal size distributions, upwelling radiances at the top of cirrus cloudy atmospheres have been computed. Results show that the presence of small ice crystals can produce significant brightness temperature differences between two infrared wavelengths in the 10-micron window. Theoretical results have been compared with observed brightness temperature differences between 8.35 and 11.16 microns and between 11.16 and 12 microns. The observed values were obtained from the high-spectral resolution interferometer sounder. It is shown that the use of the present nonspherical model for ice crystals in radiative transfer calculations leads to a significantly better interpretation of the observed data than does the use of the spherical model.

Takano, Y.↗

A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

meteoric flux↗

Scrutinizing entrainment and mass flux closures in shallow cumulus parameterizations using cloud-radar observations and large-eddy simulation (Final Report)

Representing warm, shallow clouds is a challenge for Global Climate Models, which leads to uncertainty in model projections of future climate. Our study was particularly concerned with how climate models represent the effects of shallow, non-precipitating cumulus clouds. Climate models must make certain assumptions when representing low clouds such as how much dry air from outside the cloud is mixed into the warm, moist cloud updraft. This process is called “entrainment” and tends to weaken the cloud updraft and dry out the cloud, compared to a theoretical cloud with no mixing. This project was a joint observational and modeling study to derive estimates of entrainment from field observations and use high-resolution modeling to evaluate the assumptions used in climate model representations of shallow cumulus. Our research took advantage of a wide variety of Department of Energy measurements from fixed climate-monitoring locations over the Southern Great Plains of the U.S. and the in the Eastern North Atlantic, along with short-term field projects (MAGIC, CAP–MBL, ACE–ENA). During the project, the PI maintained regular collaborations with Department of Energy Scientists at Brookhaven and Argonne National Laboratories. The project funded two students, who both obtained their M.S. in Atmospheric Science and are currently in the Atmospheric Science Ph.D. program. Both were lead authors on research papers funded by this grant.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Dynamics of the Middle Atmosphere and Lower Thermosphere Under the Influence of Gravity Waves

Our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which extends from the ground up into the thermosphere, is non-linear, time-dependent and has been employed for 2D and 3D applications. The standard version of the NSM incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small scale gravity waves (GW), but planetary waves generated in the troposphere have also been incorporated. The NSM has been applied to describe: (1) the anomalous seasonal variations of the zonal circulation and temperature in the upper mesosphere, (2) the equatorial oscillations (quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations (QBO and SAO)) extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, (3) the diurnal and semi-diurnal tides, and (4) the planetary waves that are excited in the mesosphere. With the emphasis to provide understanding, we present here results from numerical experiments with the NSM that shed light on the GW processes that are of central importance in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. These are our conclusions: (1) The large semiannual variations in the diurnal tide (DT), with peak amplitudes observed around equinox, are produced primarily by GW interactions that involve, in part, planetary waves. The DT, like planetary waves, tends to be amplified by GW momentum deposition, which reduces also the vertical wavelength, but variations in eddy viscosity associated with GW interactions are also important. (2) The semidiurnal tide (SDT) and its phase in particular, is strongly influenced by the mean zonal circulation. The SDT, individually, is also amplified by GW. But the DT filters out GW such that the GW interaction effectively reduces the amplitude of the SDT, producing a strong nonlinear interaction between the DT and SDT. (3) Without external time dependent energy or momentum sources, planetary waves (PW) are generated in the model for zonal wavenumbers 1 to 4, which have amplitudes in the mesosphere above 50 km as large as 40 m/s and periods between 50 and 2 days. The waves are generated primarily during solstice conditions, which indicates that the baroclinic instability (associated with the GW induced reversal in the latitudinal temperature gradient) is playing an important role. Numerical experiment show that GW, directly, also greatly amplify the PW. A common feature of the PW generated in summer and winter is that their vertical wavelengths throughout the mesosphere are large, which indicates that the waves are not propagating freely but are generated throughout the region. Another common feature is that the PW propagate preferentially westward in summer and eastward in winter, being launched from the westward and eastward zonal winds that prevail respectively in summer and winter at altitudes below 80 km. (4) Planetary waves generated internally by baroclinic instability and GW interaction produce large amplitude modulations of the DT and SDT. In summary we conclude that GW play major roles in generating and amplifying the dynamical components in the MLT region and, acting principally through wave filtering, produce important non-linear interactions between the components.

Mayr, H. G.↗

Physics or Knob‐Tuning? Tropical Anvil Peak Is Captured by GCMs

Tropical anvil clouds peak near 200 hPa and significantly impact Earth's climate, yet its physical realism in coarse‐resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) remains debated. We examine anvil cloud formation by performing simulations with a GCM with a hierarchy of cloud fraction schemes ranging from a complex prognostic Tiedtke scheme to a simple binary scheme. All schemes consistently reproduce the anvil peak. The robust anvil peak arises because extremely cold temperatures at the upper troposphere facilitate frequent saturation events, producing clouds that disproportionately influence mean cloud fraction. Sensitivity experiments with enhanced evaporation of cloud condensate unexpectedly show increased anvil coverage, highlighting how slight evaporative moistening reinforces local saturation in cold upper‐tropospheric conditions. These results demonstrate that the tropical anvil cloud peak emerges from fundamental thermodynamic constraints, rather than specific cloud fraction parameterization choices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Radiative Convective Equilibrium to Explore Clouds and Climate in the Community Atmosphere Model

Abstract Characteristics of, and fundamental differences between, the radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE) climate states following the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) protocols in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) and version 6 (CAM6) are presented. This paper explores the characteristics of clouds, moisture, precipitation and circulation in the RCE state, as well as the tropical response to surface warming, in CAM5 and CAM6 with different parameterizations. Overall, CAM5 simulates higher precipitation rates that result in larger global average precipitation, despite lower outgoing longwave radiation compared to CAM6. Differences in the structure of clouds, particularly the amount and vertical location of cloud liquid, exist between the CAM versions and can, in part, be related to distinct representations of shallow convection and boundary layer processes. Both CAM5 and CAM6 simulate similar peaks in cloud fraction, relative humidity, and cloud ice, linked to the usage of a similar deep convection parameterization. These anvil clouds rise and decrease in extent in response to surface warming. More generally, extreme precipitation, aggregation of convection, and climate sensitivity increase with warming in both CAM5 and CAM6. This analysis provides a benchmark for future studies that explore clouds, convection, and climate in CAM with the RCEMIP protocols now available in the Community Earth System Model. These results are discussed within the context of realistic climate simulations using CAM5 and CAM6, highlighting the usefulness of a hierarchical modeling approach to understanding model and parameterization sensitivities to inform model development efforts.

Reed, Kevin A.↗

Calibrating the simple biosphere model for Amazonian tropical forest using field and remote sensing data. I - Average calibration with field data

Using meteorological and hydrological measurements taken in and above the central-Amazon-basin tropical forest, calibration of the Sellers et al. (1986) simple biosphere (SiB) model are described. The SiB model is a one-dimensional soil-vegetation-atmosphere model designed for use within GCMs models, representing the vegetation cover by analogy with processes operating within a single representative plant. The experimental systems and the procedures used to obtain field data are described, together with the specification of the physiological parameterization required to provide an average description of data. It was found that some of the existing literature on stomatal behavior for tropical species is inconsistent with the observed behavior of the complete canopy in Amazonia, and that the rainfall interception store of the canopy is considerably smaller than originally specified in the SiB model.

Sellers, Piers J.↗

Estimates of the stratospheric residual circulation using the downward control principle

The transformed Eulerian-mean momentum and continuity equations are used to calculate the residual mean meridional circulations for the lower stratosphere and troposphere. Momentum and temperature fluxes required for the computation are estimated from U.K. Meteorological Office (UKMO) analyzed geopotential heights. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) CCM2 model output is used to assess the errors associated with the calculation. The model comparisons showed that the method works reasonably well for solstice seasons, but is inadequate for equinox seasons. In addition, it is found that some parameterization of gravity wave drag needs to be included with the planetary wave forcing to accurately estimate the residual mean circulation using this method.

Rosenlof, Karen H.↗

Wind Field Measurements With Airborne Doppler Lidar

In collaboration with lidar atmospheric remote sensing groups at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Environmental Technology Laboratory, we have developed and flown the Multi-center Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (MACAWS) lidar on the NASA DC-8 research aircraft. The scientific motivations for this effort are: to obtain measurements of subgrid scale (i.e. 2-200 km) processes and features which may be used to improve parameterizations in global/regional-scale models; to improve understanding and predictive capabilities on the mesoscale; and to assess the performance of Earth-orbiting Doppler lidar for global tropospheric wind measurements. MACAWS is a scanning Doppler lidar using a pulsed transmitter and coherent detection; the use of the scanner allows 3-D wind fields to be produced from the data. The instrument can also be radiometrically calibrated and used to study aerosol, cloud, and surface scattering characteristics at the lidar wavelength in the thermal infrared. MACAWS was used to study surface winds off the California coast near Point Arena, with an example depicted in the figure below. The northerly flow here is due to the Pacific subtropical high. The coastal topography interacts with the northerly flow in the marine inversion layer, and when the flow passes a cape or point that juts into the winds, structures called "hydraulic expansion fans" are observed. These are marked by strong variation along the vertical and cross-shore directions. The plots below show three horizontal slices at different heights above sea level (ASL). Bottom plots are enlargements of the area marked by dotted boxes above. The terrain contours are in 200-m increments, with the white spots being above 600-m elevation. Additional information is contained in the original.

Menzies, Robert T.↗

DAO's Finite-volume/Physical-space Data Assimilation System: Stratospheric Applications

In this talk we describe the next-generation data assimilation system being developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), with emphasis on the applications to stratospheric forecasts and stratospheric constituent transport. This data assimilation system includes the General Circulation Model jointly developed by the DAO and the Climate and Global Dynamics Division (CGDD) at NCAR. This model is based on the finite-volume dynamical core) developed at DAO with physical parameterizations from the NCAR Climate Community Model. The Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) is used to combine a first guess from the NASA-NCAR GCM with observational data to provide an updated estimate of the state of the atmosphere. Case studies for the (northern) Winter of 2000 will be discussed.

daSilva, Arlindo↗

The Effect of Satellite Observing System Changes on MERRA Water and Energy Fluxes

Because reanalysis data sets offer state variables and fluxes at regular space / time intervals, atmospheric reanalyses have become a mainstay of the climate community for diagnostic purposes and for driving offline ocean and land models. Although one weakness of these data sets is the susceptibility of the flux products to uncertainties because of shortcomings in parameterized model physics, another issue, perhaps less appreciated, is the fact that continual but discreet changes in the evolving observational system, particularly from satellite sensors, may also introduce artifacts in the time series of quantities. In this paper we examine the ability of the NASA MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) and other recent reanalyses to determine variability in the climate system over the satellite record (approximately the last 30 years). In particular we highlight the effect on the reanalysis of discontinuities at the junctures of the onset of passive microwave imaging (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) in late 1987 as well as improved sounding and imaging with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit, AMSU-A, in 1998. We first examine MERRA fluxes from the perspective of how physical modes of variability (e.g. ENSO events, Pacific Decadal Variability) are contaminated by artificial step-like trends induced by the onset of new moisture data these two satellite observing systems. Secondly, we show how Redundancy Analysis, a statistical regression methodology, is effective in relating these artifact signals in the moisture and temperature analysis increments to their presence in the physical flux terms (e.g. precipitation, radiation). This procedure is shown to be effective greatly reducing the artificial trends in the flux quantities.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

The Effect of Satellite Observing System Changes on MERRA Water and Energy Fluxes

Because reanalysis data sets offer state variables and fluxes at regular space / time intervals, atmospheric reanalyses have become a mainstay of the climate community for diagnostic purposes and for driving offline ocean and land models. Although one weakness of these data sets is the susceptibility of the flux products to uncertainties because of shortcomings in parameterized model physics, another issue, perhaps less appreciated, is the fact that continual but discreet changes in the evolving observational system, particularly from satellite sensors, may also introduce artifacts in the time series of quantities. In this paper we examine the ability of the NASA MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) and other recent reanalyses to determine variability in the climate system over the satellite record (approx. the last 30 years). In particular we highlight the effect on the reanalysis of discontinuities at the junctures of the onset of passive microwave imaging (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) in late 1987 and, more prominently, with improved sounding and imaging with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit, AMSU-A, in 1998. We first examine MERRA fluxes from the perspective of how physical modes of variability (e.g. ENSO events, Pacific Decadal Variability) are contained by artificial step-like trends induced by the onset of new moisture data these two satellite observing systems. Secondly, we show how Redundancy Analysis, a statistical regression methodology, is effective in relating these artifact signals in the moisture and temperature analysis increments to their presence in the physical flux terms (e.g. precipitation, radiation). This procedure is shown to be effective greatly reducing the artificial trends in the flux quantities.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

New Concepts for Refinement of Cumulus Parameterization in GCM's the Arakawa-Schubert Framework

Several state-of-the-art models including the one employed in this study use the Arakawa-Schubert framework for moist convection, and Sundqvist formulation of stratiform. clouds, for moist physics, in-cloud condensation, and precipitation. Despite a variety of cloud parameterization methodologies developed by several modelers including the authors, most of the parameterized cloud-models have similar deficiencies. These consist of: (a) not enough shallow clouds, (b) too many deep clouds; (c) several layers of clouds in a vertically demoralized model as opposed to only a few levels of observed clouds, and (d) higher than normal incidence of double ITCZ (Inter-tropical Convergence Zone). Even after several upgrades consisting of a sophisticated cloud-microphysics and sub-grid scale orographic precipitation into the Data Assimilation Office (DAO)'s atmospheric model (called GEOS-2 GCM) at two different resolutions, we found that the above deficiencies remained persistent. The two empirical solutions often used to counter the aforestated deficiencies consist of a) diffusion of moisture and heat within the lower troposphere to artificially force the shallow clouds; and b) arbitrarily invoke evaporation of in-cloud water for low-level clouds. Even though helpful, these implementations lack a strong physical rationale. Our research shows that two missing physical conditions can ameliorate the aforestated cloud-parameterization deficiencies. First, requiring an ascending cloud airmass to be saturated at its starting point will not only make the cloud instantly buoyant all through its ascent, but also provide the essential work function (buoyancy energy) that would promote more shallow clouds. Second, we argue that training clouds that are unstable to a finite vertical displacement, even if neutrally buoyant in their ambient environment, must continue to rise and entrain causing evaporation of in-cloud water. These concepts have not been invoked in any of the cloud parameterization schemes so far. We introduced them into the DAO-GEOS-2 GCM with McRAS (Microphysics of Clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme).

Sud, Y. C.↗

A New Hybrid Mass-Flux/High-Order Turbulence Closure for Ocean Vertical Mixing

While various parameterizations of vertical turbulent fluxes at different levels of complexity have been proposed, each has its own limitations. For example, simple first-order closure schemes such as the K-Profile Parameterization (KPP) lack energetic constraints; two-equation models $k-ε$ like directly solve an equation for the turbulent kinetic energy but do not account for non-diffusive fluxes, and high-order closures that include the high-order transport terms are computationally expensive. To address these, we extend the Assumed-Distribution Higher-Order Closure (ADC) framework originally proposed for the atmospheric boundary layer and apply it to the ocean surface boundary layer. By assuming a probability distribution function relationship between the vertical velocity and tracers, all second-order and higher-order moments are exactly constructed and turbulence closure is achieved in the ADC scheme. In addition, this ADC parameterization has full energetic constraints and includes non-diffusive fluxes without the computational cost of a full higher-order closure scheme. We have tested the ADC scheme against a combination of large eddy simulation (LES), KPP, and $k-ε$ for surface buoyancy-driven convective mixing and found that the ADC scheme is robust with different vertical resolutions and compares well to the LES results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ERF: Energy Research and Forecasting

The Energy Research and Forecasting (ERF) code is a new model that simulates the mesoscale and microscale dynamics of the atmosphere using the latest high-performance computing architectures. It employs hierarchical parallelism using an MPI+X model, where X may be OpenMP on multicore CPU-only systems, or CUDA, HIP, or SYCL on GPU-accelerated systems. ERF is built on AMReX (Zhang et al., 2019, 2021), a block-structured adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) software framework that provides the underlying performance-portable software infrastructure for block-structured mesh operations. The "energy" aspect of ERF indicates that the software has been developed with renewable energy applications in mind. In addition to being a numerical weather prediction model, ERF is designed to provide a flexible computational framework for the exploration and investigation of different physics parameterizations and numerical strategies, and to characterize the flow field that impacts the ability of wind turbines to extract wind energy. The ERF development is part of a broader effort led by the US Department of Energy's Wind Energy Technologies Office.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Unprecedented cloud resolution in a GPU-enabled full-physics atmospheric climate simulation on OLCF’s summit supercomputer

Clouds represent a key uncertainty in future climate projection. While explicit cloud resolution remains beyond our computational grasp for global climate, we can incorporate important cloud effects through a computational middle ground called the Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF), also known as Super Parameterization. This algorithmic approach embeds high-resolution Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) to represent moist convective processes within each grid column in a Global Climate Model (GCM). The MMF code requires no parallel data transfers and provides a self-contained target for acceleration. This study investigates the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model-MMF (E3SM-MMF) code on the OLCF Summit supercomputer at an unprecedented scale of simulation. Hundreds of kernels in the roughly 10K lines of code in the E3SM-MMF CRM were ported to GPUs with OpenACC directives. A high-resolution benchmark using 4600 nodes on Summit demonstrates the computational capability of the GPU-enabled E3SM-MMF code in a full physics climate simulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗