Results for “Bayes” — Page 39

DOE OSTI2026

Travel Decision Survey - San Francisco - 2013

On behalf of the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA), Corey, Canapary & Galanis undertook a Travel Decision Survey within the City and County of San Francisco, as well as the eight surrounding Bay Area counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Marin, Santa Clara, Napa, Sonoma, and Solano. The primary goals of this study were to: 1. Assess percent mode share for travel in San Francisco for evaluation of the SFMTA Strategic Objective 2.3: Mode Share target of 50% non-private auto travel by FY 2018 with a 95% confidence level and margin of error ±5% or less. 2. Evaluate the above statement based on number of trips to, from, and within San Francisco by Bay Area residents. Trips by visitors to the Bay Area and for commercial purposes are not included. 3. Provide additional trip details, including trip purpose for each trip in the mode-share question series. 4. Collect demographic data on the population of Bay Area residents who travel to, from, and within San Francisco. 5. Collect data on travel behavior and opinions that support other SFMTA strategy and project evaluation needs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Travel Decision Survey - San Francisco - 2014

On behalf of the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA), Corey, Canapary & Galanis undertook a Travel Decision Survey within the City and County of San Francisco, as well as the eight surrounding Bay Area counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Marin, Santa Clara, Napa, Sonoma, and Solano. The primary goals of this study were to: 1. Assess percent mode share for travel in San Francisco for evaluation of the SFMTA Strategic Objective 2.3: Mode Share target of 50% non-private auto travel by FY 2018 with a 95% confidence level and margin of error ±5% or less. 2. Evaluate the above statement based on number of trips to, from, and within San Francisco by Bay Area residents. Trips by visitors to the Bay Area and for commercial purposes are not included. 3. Provide additional trip details, including trip purpose for each trip in the mode-share question series. 4. Collect demographic data on the population of Bay Area residents who travel to, from, and within San Francisco. 5. Collect data on travel behavior and opinions that support other SFMTA strategy and project evaluation needs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Travel Decision Survey - San Francisco - 2015

On behalf of the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA), Corey, Canapary & Galanis undertook a Travel Decision Survey within the City and County of San Francisco, as well as the eight surrounding Bay Area counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Marin, Santa Clara, Napa, Sonoma, and Solano. The primary goals of this study were to: 1. Assess percent mode share for travel in San Francisco for evaluation of the SFMTA Strategic Objective 2.3: Mode Share target of 50% non-private auto travel by FY 2018 with a 95% confidence level and margin of error ±5% or less. 2. Evaluate the above statement based on number of trips to, from, and within San Francisco by Bay Area residents. Trips by visitors to the Bay Area and for commercial purposes are not included. 3. Provide additional trip details, including trip purpose for each trip in the mode-share question series. 4. Collect demographic data on the population of Bay Area residents who travel to, from, and within San Francisco. 5. Collect data on travel behavior and opinions that support other SFMTA strategy and project evaluation needs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Travel Decision Survey - San Francisco - 2017

On behalf of the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA), Corey, Canapary & Galanis undertook a Travel Decision Survey within the City and County of San Francisco, as well as the eight surrounding Bay Area counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Marin, Santa Clara, Napa, Sonoma, and Solano. The primary goals of this study were to: 1. Assess percent mode share for travel in San Francisco for evaluation of the SFMTA Strategic Objective 2.3: Mode Share target of 50% non-private auto travel by FY 2018 with a 95% confidence level and margin of error ±5% or less. 2. Evaluate the above statement based on number of trips to, from, and within San Francisco by Bay Area residents. Trips by visitors to the Bay Area and for commercial purposes are not included. 3. Provide additional trip details, including trip purpose for each trip in the mode-share question series. 4. Collect demographic data on the population of Bay Area residents who travel to, from, and within San Francisco. 5. Collect data on travel behavior and opinions that support other SFMTA strategy and project evaluation needs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Statistical Significance Testing for Mixed Priors: A Combined Bayesian and Frequentist Analysis

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it incorporates Occam’s razor via the multiplicity or trials factor in the look-elsewhere effect. However, if the prior is not known completely, the frequentist hypothesis test via the false-positive rate is a better approach, as it is less sensitive to the prior choice. We argue that when only partial prior information is available, it is best to combine the two methodologies by using the Bayes factor as a test statistic in the frequentist analysis. We show that the standard frequentist maximum likelihood-ratio test statistic corresponds to the Bayes factor with a non-informative Jeffrey’s prior. We also show that mixed priors increase the statistical power in frequentist analyses over the maximum likelihood test statistic. We develop an analytic formalism that does not require expensive simulations and generalize Wilks’ theorem beyond its usual regime of validity. In specific limits, the formalism reproduces existing expressions, such as the p-value of linear models and periodograms. We apply the formalism to an example of exoplanet transits, where multiplicity can be more than 10 7 . We show that our analytic expressions reproduce the $p$-values derived from numerical simulations. We offer an interpretation of our formalism based on the statistical mechanics. We introduce the counting of states in a continuous parameter space using the uncertainty volume as the quantum of the state. We show that both the $p$-value and Bayes factor can be expressed as an energy versus entropy competition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Year-long buoy-based observations of the air–sea transition zone off the US west coast

Abstract. Two buoys equipped with Doppler lidars owned by the US Department of Energy (DOE) were deployed off the coast of California in autumn of 2020 by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The buoys collected data for an entire annual cycle at two offshore locations proposed for offshore wind development by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. One of the buoys was deployed approximately 50 km off the coast near Morro Bay in central California in 1100 m of water. The second buoy was deployed approximately 40 km off Humboldt County in northern California in 625 m of water. The buoys provided the first-ever continuous measurements of the air–sea transition zone off the coast of California. The atmospheric and oceanographic characteristics of the area and estimates of annual energy production at both the Morro Bay and Humboldt wind energy areas show that both locations have a high wind energy yield and are prime locations for future floating offshore wind turbines. This article provides a description and comprehensive analysis of the data collected by the buoys, and a final post-processed dataset is uploaded to a data archive maintained by the DOE. Additional analysis was conducted to show the value of the data collected by the DOE buoys. All post-processed data from this study are available on the Wind Data Hub website: https://a2e.energy.gov/data# (last access: 14 September 2023). Near-surface, wave, current, and cloud datasets for Humboldt and Morro Bay are provided at https://doi.org/10.21947/1783807 (Krishnamurthy and Sheridan, 2023b) and https://doi.org/10.21947/1959715 (Krishnamurthy and Sheridan, 2023a), respectively. Lidar datasets for Humboldt and Morro Bay are provided at https://doi.org/10.21947/1783809 (Krishnamurthy and Sheridan, 2023d) and https://doi.org/10.21947/1959721 (Krishnamurthy and Sheridan, 2023c), respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of HRRR-simulated rotor layer wind speeds and clouds along the coast of California

Stratocumulus clouds, with their low cloud base and top, affect the atmospheric boundary layer wind and turbulence profile, thereby modulating wind energy resources. GOES satellite data reveal an abundance of stratocumulus clouds in the late spring and summer months off the coast of northern and central California, where there are active plans to deploy floating offshore wind farms at two lease areas (near Morro Bay and Humboldt). Since the fall of 2020, two buoys equipped with multiple instruments, including Doppler lidar, have been deployed for about 1 year in these wind farm lease areas to assess the rotor layer wind conditions in these locations. The objective of this study is to evaluate how well the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model represents stratocumulus cloud characteristics and turbine-relevant rotor layer winds (surface to 300 m) by comparing HRRR simulations with buoy and satellite observations. We first find that the HRRR model reproduces the seasonal cycle of cloud top height reasonably well in these regions. However, during the warm season – especially at Morro Bay – the HRRR-simulated stratocumulus clouds tend to have lower tops by about 150 m and exhibit weaker diurnal cycles than satellite observations. Our analysis also shows that rotor layer wind speeds and vertical shear are stronger at Humboldt than at Morro Bay, and both are generally stronger under clear-sky conditions. Finally, the HRRR model bias in rotor layer wind speed is small under cloudy conditions but larger and dependent on observed wind speed under clear skies. Specifically, HRRR underestimates wind speeds at Morro Bay and overestimates them at Humboldt under clear-sky conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1972

Collection and analysis of remotely sensed data from the Rhode River Estuary Watershed

NASA chose the watershed of Rhode River, a small sub-estuary of the Bay, as a representative test area for intensive studies of remote sensing, the results of which could be extrapolated to other estuarine watersheds around the Bay. A broad program of ecological research was already underway within the watershed, conducted by the Smithsonian Institution's Chesapeake Bay Center for Environmental Studies (CBCES) and cooperating universities. This research program offered a unique opportunity to explore potential applications for remote sensing techniques. This led to a joint NASA-CBCES project with two basic objectives: to evaluate remote sensing data for the interpretation of ecological parameters, and to provide essential data for ongoing research at the CBCES. A third objective, dependent upon realization of the first two, was to extrapolate photointerpretive expertise gained at the Rhode River watershed to other portions of the Chesapeake Bay.

Jenkins, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Monitoring coastal water properties and circulation from ERTS-1

The author has identified the following significant results. Imagery and digital tapes from nine successful ERTS-1 passes over Delaware Bay during different portions of the tidal cycle have been analyzed with special emphasis on turbidity, current circulation, waste disposal plumes, and convergent boundaries between different water masses. ERTS-1 image radiance correlated well with Secchi depth and suspended sediment concentration. MSS band 5 seemed to give the best representation of sediment load in the upper one meter of the water column. Circulation patterns observed by ERTS-1 during different parts of the tidal cycle, agreed well with predicted and measured currents throughout Delaware Bay. During flood tide the suspended sediment as visible from ERTS-1 also correlated well with the depth profile. Convergent shear boundaries between different water masses were observed from ERTS-1, with foam lines containing high concentrations of lead, mercury, and other toxic substances. Several fronts have been seen. Those near the mouth of the bay are associated with the tidal intrusion of shelf water. Fronts in the interior of the bay on the Delaware side appear to be associated with velocity shears induced by differences in bottom topography. Waste disposal plumes have benn detected 36 miles offshore.

Klemas, V.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Electric field measurements across the harang discontinuity

The Harang discontinuity, the area separating the positive and negative bay regions in the midnight sector of the auroral zone, is a focal point for changes in behavior of many phenomena. Through this region the electric field rotates through the west from a basically northward field in the positive bay region to a basically southward field in the negative bay region, appearing as a reversal in a single axis measurement; 32 of these reversals have been identified in the OGO-6 data from November and December, 1969. The discontinuity is dynamic in nature, moving southward and steepening its latitudinal profile as magnetic activity is increased. As activity decreases it relaxes poleward and spreads out in latitudinal width. It occurs over several hours of magnetic local time. The boundary in the electric field data is consistent with the reversal of ground magnetic disturbances from a positive to negative bay condition. The discontinuity is present in the electric field data both during substorms and during quiet times and appears to define a pattern on which other effects can occur.

Maynard, N. C.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Remote sensing of water quality

Remote sensing from aircraft has been used to determine water content in areas such as the New York Bight. Extension of the techniques developed to satellite sensing of the Chesapeake Bay will begin in 1978 with the launch of Nimbus-G. Remote sensing offers a number of interesting possibilities for investigating a reasonably large body of water, such as the Chesapeake Bay, coupled with some disadvantages. The chief advantage of remote sensing is that it offers the opportunity to cover large areas in relatively short periods of time. Low altitude satellites traveling at about 7 km/s can cover the Chesapeake Bay in about 1 minute so that the entire Bay can be studied under almost identical conditions of solar illumination.

Hovis, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Test program to develop vibroacoustics test criteria for the Galileo bus

In order to define random vibration test requirements for Galileo bus-mounted hardware, an extensive vibroacoustics test program was conducted on hardware available from the previous Voyager spacecraft development program. The Galileo test program consisted of acoustic tests on three configurations of the Voyager Dynamic Test Model bus and shaker random vibration tests on two flight-like bus equipment bay assemblies and one dummy equipment bay assembly. The primary goal of the acoustic tests was to define vibration levels at locations on the bus structure representative of inputs to bus equipment bay assemblies and to obtain response data on bus bay subassemblies for correlation with the vibration tests response data. The primary purpose of the vibration tests was to determine if the vibration tests excited subassembly responses at least as severely as the bus acoustic tests.

Kern, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Deployable Geodesic Truss

Efficiently packaged structure deployed or retracted easily. In preliminary two-bay model each bay has sets of battens connected by two longitudinal crossed members that give bay axial and torsional stiffness. Cross-members hinged in center to fold for packaging. Bays deployed and stabilized by actuators connected between center hinges of cross-members.

Mikulas, M. M., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Measured thermal ion environment of STS-3

The Plasma Diagnostic Package (PDP) on the third Space Shuttle Flight (STS- 3) included a Bennett RF ion mass spectrometer which surveyed the positive ion composition in the vicinity of the vehicle. The ion measurements both within and exterior to the Shuttle cargo bay show the pervasive influence of the Shuttle's own gaseous emissions on its immediate plasma environment. Within the bay the ion spectrometer detected copius quantities of ions when the Shuttle was in daylight and when the gas pressure at the surface of the PDP was enhanced. In general few cases of ion detection occurred when the bay was facing toward the Shuttle wake. The plasma near the Shuttle consisted predominately of O+ (16AMU) ions and ions with atomic masses of 18, 30, 32 and 44 AMU corresponding to H2O+, NO+, O2+, and CO2+. All of these ions with the exception of H2O+ and CO2+ are expected ambient ions at the Shuttle's altitude of 240 km. During some thruster firings the 18 and 30 AMU ion concentrations detected within the bay increase by up to an order of magnitude within the 2.4 second sweep of the instrument. During these latter events the O+ distributions did not show a similar change.

Grebowsky, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Temperature-time distribution and thermal stresses on the RTG fins and shell during water cooling

Radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) packages designed for space missions generally do not require active cooling. However, the heat they generate cannot remain inside of the launch vehicle bay and requires active removal. Therefore, before the Shuttle bay door is closed, the RTG coolant tubes attached to the heat rejection fins must be filled with water, which will circulate and remove most of the heat from the cargo bay. There is concern that charging a system at initial temperature around 200 C with water at 24 C can cause unacceptable thermal stresses in the RTG shell and fins. A computer model is developed to estimate the transient temperature distribution resulting from such charging. The thermal stresses resulting from the temperature gradients do not exceed the elastic deformation limit for the material. Since the simplified mathematical model for thermal stresses tends to overestimate stresses, it is concluded that the RTG can be cooled by introducing water at 24 C to the initially hot fin coolant tubes while the RTG is in the Shuttle cargo bay.

Turner, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Design study of a slant-nose-cylinder aeroassisted orbital transfer vehicle

A slant-nose-cylinder aeroassisted orbital transfer vehicle configuration is described and analyzed in this study. The vehicle is sized for a 12,000 lb roundtrip payload between low earth orbit and geosynchronous orbit and is assumed to be space based. The vehicle can be fabricated using near-term technologies and is fully reusable. Optional advanced technologies offer potential for improved performance. The vehicle can be assembled on the ground and carried to orbit in the Shuttle cargo bay. An enclosed payload bay is provided in the vehicle to protect payloads during the pass through the atmosphere. The payload bay capacity can be increased from a 10 ft to a 14 ft diameter payload by replacing a modular section of the payload bay in space. The results of calculations used to size the vehicle and to predict its performance and weight are presented.

Blosser, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Spacelab Hitchhiker, for rapid, low cost orbital resources

A carrier system called the Hitchhiker is being developed by NASA to bridge the gap between the limited capabilites of the Get Away Special (GAS) and the full support capabilities of the Spacelab. The Hitchhiker offers economy class flight for experiments which need little in the way of support services. The concept behind this carrier system is to use existing hardware in two basic configurations and to provide several sets of fixed service interfaces to the payload. One version of the Hitchhiker was designed to hang on the right side of the bay and the other to span the bay. Aside from cargo bay sill-level mounting positions for experiments, both Hitchhiker configurations provide modest power, command, and data management, and no active cooling services. The Hitchhiker is a payload of opportunity system utilizing the volume and weight remaining in the cargo bay after primary-payload needs are satisfied. Pointing and other time line requirements are limited to those established by the primary payload. The paper descibes the experiments of the first two Hitchhiker flights, together with future applications.

James, E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Acoustic Load Considerations for Spacecraft Structures

An analytical model to predict the space averaged sound pressure levels in the payload bay of the Space Shuttle orbiter vehicle at lift-off was developed. A modified form of the model can also be used to predict vibration levels of the orbiter mid fuselage and to evaluate noise control concepts for the interior of the proposed Aft Cargo Carrier (ACC). The analytical model is presented and predicted payload bay sound pressure levels are compared with launch data for an empty bay. Estimated and measured sound pressure levels for regions above large diameter payloads are found to be significantly higher than those for the empty bay. The use of helium as a purge gas to reduce sound pressure levels in the ACC is proposed.

Wilby, J. F.↗