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DOE OSTI2025

OpenFerro v0.1.0

OpenFerro is a Python package for on-lattice atomistic dynamics simulation of ferroic materials. OpenFerro is based on JAX, a high-performance linear algebra package supporting auto-differentiation and GPU acceleration. OpenFerro is designed to minimize the effort required to build on-lattice Hamiltonian models, and to perform molecular dynamics (MD) and Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert simulations. Unlike existing codes, OpenFerro provides a unified interface to model different types of local order parameters.

Xie, Pinchen [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wavelength Calibration of the Full-sun Ultraviolet Rocket SpecTrograph: (FURST)

The Sun has a well-known periodicity in sunspot number and magnetic field variation. The underlying cause of this 11-year cycle is not fully understood and has yet to be connected with those processes in other stellar objects. The Full-sun Ultraviolet Rocket SpecTrograph (FURST) is a sounding rocket payload being developed by Montana State University (MSU) alongside the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) solar physics group. Scheduled to launch from White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) in 2022, this instrument is unique in that it will provide the connection between stellar observatories with measurements of our Sun. It will achieve this through extremely high-resolution full-disk spectroscopy in EUV. We aim to obtain a wavelength resolution R > 10,000 in the 115 - 181 nm range, on par with that of the Hubble (HST) Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS). The Lyman Alpha line (121 nm) is known to oversaturate most CCD electronics and is of particular challenge for this spectral range. In addition, this resolution goal will allow us to study the 3 km/s motion (a Doppler-shift of about 0.01 Angstroms) of the relatively low-temperature plasma in the chromosphere and lower corona. This paper will present the results of our simulation of the diagnostic lamp signal to be used in this wavelength calibration. To test the viability of this precise of a device, we are building a collimator capable of calibrating the FURST instrument under these strict radiometric requirements. By way of a diagnostic lamp simulation, we will account for photon noise, CCD electronic readout noise, and statistical error. These will lead to the development of our pre- and post-launch calibration plan. Future work includes absolute radiometric and wavelength calibration with this new collimator. In addition, the ability of FURST to measure extremely small Doppler-shifts will provide capabilities for planetary atmospheric scientists. This impact is coupled with the diverse international partnership created by the closely-knit Sounding Rocket teams across the globe. These Sounding Rockets have an even broader impact, as they encourage future satellite missions under the prospect of long-term observations.

FURST↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Analysis of a Six-Cable Parallel Robot for Automated Panelized Building Retrofits

Cable-Driven Parallel Robots (CDPRs) are highly suitable for automated panelized building retrofits, thanks to their compact footprint and high payload-to-weight ratio. A common CDPR configuration featuring eight cables, where the anchors form a rectangular prism in front of the building facade, offers a large wrench feasible workspace and good control versatility. However, installing upper anchor points requires additional support structures, such as towers or beams, increasing setup complexity and posing logistical challenges in construction settings. To mitigate these challenges, we propose a six-cable CDPR model specifically designed for automated panelized building retrofits. Although the feasible workspace is limited, our analysis shows that the proposed CDPR adequately covers the critical areas required for panel installation. To validate that the six-cable system can effectively transport the end effector to the desired installation pose, we calculated optimal trajectories based on a constrained dynamic model. The simulation results of the six-cable CDPR demonstrate promising potential for automated panelized building retrofits, effectively balancing simplicity, cost-effectiveness, and functionality.

Liu, Yifang [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190817417)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulated Multipath Using Software Generated GPS Signals

Depending on the environment, multipath can be one of the largest error sources contributing to degradation in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) (e.g., GPS) performance. Multipath is a phenomenon that occurs as radio signals reflect off of surfaces, such as buildings, producing multiple copies of the original signal. When this occurs with GPS signals, it results in one or more delayed signals arriving at the receiver with or without the on-time/direct GPS signal. The receiver measures the composite of these signals which, depending on the severity of the multipath, can substantially degrade the accuracy of the receiver's calculated position. Multipath is commonly experienced in cities due to tall buildings and its mitigation is an ongoing area of study. This research demonstrates a novel approach for simulating GPS multipath through the modification of an open-source tool, GPS-SDR-SIM. The resulting additional testing capability could allow for improved development of multipath mitigating technologies. Currently, open-source tools for simulating GPS signals are available and can be used in the testing and evaluation of GPS receiver equipment. These tools can generate GPS signals that, when used by a GPS receiver, result in computation of a position solution that was pre-determined at the time of signal generation. That is, the signals produced are properly formed for the pre-determined location and result in the receiver reporting that position. This allows for a GPS receiver under test to be exposed to various simulated locations and conditions without having to be physically subjected to them. Additionally, while these signals are generated by a software simulation, they can be processed by real or software defined GPS receivers. This work utilizes the GPS-SDR-SIM software tool for GPS signal generation and while this tool does implement some sources of error that are inherent to GPS, it cannot inject multipath. GPS-SDR-SIM was modified in this effort to produce additional copies of signals with pre-determined delays. These additional delayed signals mimic multipath and represent what happens to GPS signals in the real world as they reflect off of surfaces and arrive at a receiver in place of or alongside the direct GPS signal. A successful proof of concept was prototyped and demonstrated using this modified version of GPS-SDR-SIM to produce simulated GPS signals as well as additional simulated multipath signals. The generated data was processed using a software defined GPS receiver and it was found that the introduction of simulated multipath signals successfully produced the expected characteristics of a composite multipath signal. Further maturation of this work could allow for the development of a GPS receiver testing and evaluation framework and aid in the development of multipath mitigating technologies.

GPS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Thomas Leps Internship Abstract

An optical navigation system is being flown as the backup system to the primary Deep Space Network telemetry for navigation and guidance purposes on Orion. This is required to ensure Orion can recover from a loss of communication, which would simultaneously cause a loss of DSN telemetry. Images taken of the Moon and Earth are used to give range and position information to the navigation computer for trajectory calculations and maneuver execution. To get telemetry data from these images, the size and location of the moon need to be calculated with high accuracy and precision. The reentry envelope for the Orion EM-1 mission requires the centroid and radius of the moon images to be determined within 1/3 of a pixel 3 sigma. In order to ensure this accuracy and precision can be attained, I was tasked with building precise dot grid images for camera calibration as well as building a hardware in the loop test stand for flight software and hardware proofing. To calibrate the Op-Nav camera a dot grid is imaged with the camera, the error between the image dot location and the actual dot location can be used to build a distortion map of the camera and lens system so that images can be fixed to display truth locations. To build the dot grid images I used the Electro Optics Lab optical bench Bright Object Simulator System, and gimbal. The gimbal was slewed to a series of elevations and azimuths. An image of the collimated single point light source was then taken at each position. After a series of 99 images were taken at different locations the single light spots were extracted from each image and added to a composite image containing all 99 points. During the development of these grids it was noticed that an intermittent error in the artificial "star" locations occurred. Prior to the summer this error was attributed to the gimbal having glitches in it's pointing direction and was going to be replaced, however after further examining the issue I determined it to be a software issue. I have since narrowed the likely source of the error down to a Software Development Kit released by the camera supplier PixeLink. I have since developed a workaround in order to build star grids for calibration until the software bug can be isolated and fixed. I was also tasked with building a Hardware in the Loop test stand in order to test the full Op-Nav system. A 4k screen displays simulated Lunar and Terrestrial images from a possible Orion trajectory. These images are then projected through a collimator and then captured with an Op-Nav camera controlled by an Intel NUC computer running flight software. The flight software then analyzes the images to determine attitude and position, this data is then reconstructed into a trajectory and matched to the simulated trajectory in order to determine the accuracy of the attitude and position estimates. In order for the system to work it needs to be precisely and accurately aligned. I developed an alignment procedure that allows the screen, collimator and camera to be squared, centered and collinear with each other within a micron spatially and 5 arcseconds in rotation. I also designed a rigid mount for the screen that was machined on site in Building 10 by another intern. While I was working in the EOL we received a $500k Orion startracker for alignment procedure testing. Due to my prior experience in electronics development, as an ancillary duty, I was tasked with building the cables required to operate and power the startracker. If any errors are made building these cables the startracker would be destroyed, I was honored that the director of the lab entrusted such a critical component with me. This internship has cemented my view on public space exploration. I always preferred public sector to privatization because, as a scientist, the most interesting aspects of space for me are not necessarily the most profitable. I was concerned that the public sector was faltering however, and that in order to improve human space exploration I would be forced into private sector. I now know that, at least at JSC, human spaceflight is still progressing, and exciting work is still being done. I am now actively seeking employment at JSC after I complete my Ph.D and have met with my branch chiefs and mentor to discuss transitioning to a grad Co-op position.

Leps, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2020

Developing Extended Reality Projects in Support of Design, Fabrication and Procedure

The goal of this internship was to improve and create virtual reality simulations and visualizations for use in parallel with the design, fabrication, and analysis of flight ready hardware for areas like the Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) and also Space Systems. Specifically, my work was done in the XRSpace lab at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) with assistance directly and indirectly from workers at KSC, JSC and LaRC. Led by David Reynolds, the XRSpace lab develops products for various entities at NASA. The work done in the XRSpace lab focuses on Extended Reality (XR) solutions for both simulations and visualization capabilities. The goal of the lab is to support the larger systems of NASA and to help find ways that XR technologies can streamline and optimize the design process. Extended Reality is an umbrella term that encompasses Mixed Reality, Augmented Reality, and Virtual Reality. In this capacity, I was able to complete several elements in the design, building, testing, and deployment for a variety of immersive experiences, including a VR procedure simulation, visualization aids, and a 360-image capture tool.

Joseph Chambers↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Random Vibration Simulation and Testing of a Compact, Magnetic Bearing Supported Blower for Space Applications

NASA is developing a next-generation CO2 removal system, the Four Bed Carbon Dioxide Scrubber (4BCO2), which will use the International Space Station (ISS) as a testbed. A key component of both the existing and the new system is the blower that provides the airflow through the CO2 sorbent beds. To improve performance and reliability, magnetic bearings will be used in lieu of more conventional bearings (e.g. ball bearings or hydrodynamicbearings) to improve resistance to contaminants and enable extensibility with regards to blower speed, pressure rise and mass flow rate. The new blower features a high-efficiency permanent magnet motor, a five-axis, active magnetic bearing system, and a compact controller containing both a variable speed drive and magnetic bearing controller. The blower uses a centrifugal impeller to pull air from the inlet port and drive it through an annular space around the motor and magnetic bearing components to the exhaust port. Technical challenges of the blower and controller development include survival of the blower system under launch random vibration loads, operation in microgravity, packaging under strict size and weight requirements, and successful operation during 4BCO2 operational changeovers. Each serial build of the blower must pass a severe random vibration test to prove it will survive launch conditions. This paper discusses the vibration test requirements and provides details of a simulation performed to estimate the peak backup bearing displacements and loads. Results from the successful random vibration testing of the prototype build are discussed and compared to the simulation.

bearings↗

NASA NTRS1987

Automatic mathematical modeling for space application

A methodology for automatic mathematical modeling is described. The major objective is to create a very friendly environment for engineers to design, maintain and verify their model and also automatically convert the mathematical model into FORTRAN code for conventional computation. A demonstration program was designed for modeling the Space Shuttle Main Engine simulation mathematical model called Propulsion System Automatic Modeling (PSAM). PSAM provides a very friendly and well organized environment for engineers to build a knowledge base for base equations and general information. PSAM contains an initial set of component process elements for the Space Shuttle Main Engine simulation and a questionnaire that allows the engineer to answer a set of questions to specify a particular model. PSAM is then able to automatically generate the model and the FORTRAN code. A future goal is to download the FORTRAN code to the VAX/VMS system for conventional computation.

Wang, Caroline K.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Deep Space Storm Shelter Simulation Study

Missions outside of Earth's magnetic field are impeded by the presence of radiation from galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events. To overcome this issue, NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems Radiation Works Storm Shelter (RadWorks) has been studying different radiation protective habitats to shield against the onset of solar particle event radiation. These habitats have the capability of protecting occupants by utilizing available materials such as food, water, brine, human waste, trash, and non-consumables to build short-term shelters. Protection comes from building a barrier with the materials that dampens the impact of the radiation on astronauts. The goal of this study is to develop a discrete event simulation, modeling a solar particle event and the building of a protective shelter. The main hallway location within a larger habitat similar to the International Space Station (ISS) is analyzed. The outputs from this model are: 1) the total area covered on the shelter by the different materials, 2) the amount of radiation the crew members receive, and 3) the amount of time for setting up the habitat during specific points in a mission given an event occurs.

Dugan, Kathryn↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interzeolite Transformation through Cross-Nucleation: A Molecular Mechanism for Seed-Assisted Synthesis

Polymorph selection and efficient crystallization are central goals in zeolite synthesis. Crystalline seeds are used for both purposes. While it has been proposed that zeolite seeds induce interzeolite transformation by dissolving into structural units that promote nucleation of the daughter crystal, the seed’s structural elements do not always match those of the target zeolite. This discrepancy raises the question of how the seed promotes the daughter phase. Here, we present the first molecularly resolved investigation of seed-assisted zeolite synthesis. Using molecular simulations, we reproduce the experimental finding that a parent zeolite can promote the nucleation of a daughter zeolite even when it lacks common composite building units (CBUs) or crystal planes. Modeling the seed-assisted synthesis of an AFI-type zeolite using zeolite CHA, our simulations indicate that stand-alone CBUs from the parent seed do not facilitate daughter crystal formation. However, introducing the intact seed significantly reduces the synthesis time, supporting that seed integrity is key to increased efficiency. This reduction arises from the cross-nucleation of the AFI-type zeolite on the CHA (001) face. We find that parent and daughter zeolites are connected by an interfacial transition layer with an order distinct from that of both zeolites. Simulations reveal that cross-nucleation occurs over a broad range of synthesis conditions. We argue that cross-nucleation would be most favorable for zeolite pairs that share crystalline planes such as those forming intergrowths. In conclusion, our findings suggest that the prevalence of intergrowths with a common lattice plane in zeolite synthesis is likely a kinetic effect of accelerated cross-nucleation.

Crystallization↗

DOE OSTI2024

Alfalfa Virtual Building Service: Software Engineering Best Practices Applied to Runtime Interaction with Building Energy Models

Buildings are active participants in increasingly complex energy systems. Building Energy Modeling (BEM) has a key role to play in planning and de-risking an equitable energy transition, with BEM-backed "virtual buildings" critical path for diverse applications that include workforce training tools, Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) experimentation to study equipment performance under a range of conditions, Control-Hardware-in-the-Loop (CHIL) experimentation to de-risk commercial control implementations at equipment through grid orchestration levels, and integration of dynamic load profiles into grid modeling tools for energy system experimentation at the urban scale. Modeling requirements vary across these applications, but many software engineering tasks do not. The Alfalfa Virtual Building Service (AVBS, see https://github.com/NREL/alfalfa/wiki) is an open-source web service that solves these common tasks robustly in one place, providing a foundational platform for power users to bootstrap their own applications. AVBS abstracts the specifics of runtime interaction with OpenStudio, Modelica, and Spawn of EnergyPlus models behind a unified REST API. Additionally, AVBS provides resources for cloud deployment and scaling to 100s of parallel simulations, a growing library of modular Operational Technology (OT) integrations for emulation of real-world interfaces, and scripts to automate the population of communities of virtual buildings from URBANopt, ResStock and ComStock.

building automation↗

DOE OSTI2025

ACTIVE

The Automated Control Testbed for Integration, Verification, and Emulation (ACTIVE) framework is a software platform designed to support the optimized operation and management of a wide range of building types. It enables the development, testing, and validation of diverse control strategies, including AI-based, rule-based, and model-based approaches. The platform facilitates a seamless transition from simulation-based evaluation of control strategies to real-world field validation and deployment. ACTIVE supports the full building management lifecycle, encompassing data acquisition and management, system monitoring, optimized control, adaptive learning services, device dispatch and coordination, as well as advanced analytics and visualization. Together, these capabilities provide an integrated environment for improving building performance, operational efficiency, reducing energy cost, and reliability.

Smith, Robert [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

NASA NTRS2024

Observing System Simulation Experiments Exploring Potential Spaceborne Deployment Options for a Differential Absorption Radar Measuring Marine Surface Pressures

A new technology for remote measurements of marine surface pressure has been proposed, employing a V-band differential absorption radar and a radiometric temperature sounder to calculate the total column atmospheric mass. Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are performed to evaluate the potential impact of Spaceborne Marine Surface Pressure (SMSP) on Numerical Weather Prediction. These experiments build on prior efforts (Privé, McLinden, et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.3254), but with an updated version of the OSSE framework and with more sophisticated simulation of the SMSP observations and a longer experiment period. Several different instrument configurations are compared, including both scanning and non-scanning orbits. SMSP impacts are calculated for analysis quality and forecast skill, and a forecast sensitivity observation impact tool is employed to place SMSP observations in context with the global observing network. The effects of rain contamination on observation quality are explored. Different magnitudes of simulated SMSP observation error are tested in the context of data assimilation to show the range of potential behaviors. Overall, SMSP observations are found to be most beneficial in the southern hemisphere extratropics, with statistically significant forecast improvements for the first 72 hr of the forecast. A constellation of four non-scanning SMSP satellites is found to outperform a single scanning instrument with a 250 km wide swath.

N C Prive↗

NASA NTRS2024

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science Plan and Experimental Design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was initiated in 2008. Over two phases PlioMIP has helped co-ordinate the experimental design and publication strategy of the community, which has included an increasing number of climate models and modelling groups from around the world. It has engaged with palaeoenvironmental scientists to foster new data synthesis supporting the construction of new model boundary conditions, as well as to facilitate new data-model comparisons. The work has advanced our understanding of Pliocene climates and environments, enhanced our knowledge regarding the ability of complex climate and Earth System models to accurately simulate climate change, and helped to refine our estimates of how sensitive the climate system is to forcing conditions. In this community protocol paper, we outline the scientific plan for PlioMIP Phase 3 (PlioMIP3). This plan provides the required guidance to participating modelling groups from around the world to successfully set up and perform PlioMIP3 climate model experiments. The project is open to new participants from the scientific community (both from the climate modelling and geosciences communities). In PlioMIP3, we retain the PlioMIP2 Core experiments (Eoi 400 , E 280 ) and extend the Core requirements to include either an experiment focussed on the Early Pliocene or an alternative Late Pliocene simulation (or both). These additions (a) allow a comparison of Early and Late Pliocene warm intervals and help build research connections and synergy with the MioMIP (Miocene Model Intercomparison Project - also known as DeepMIP-Miocene) and PlioMioVAR projects (Pliocene-Miocene Variability Working Group), and (b) create an alternative time slice simulation for 3.205 Ma (MIS KM5c) through removal of some of the largest palaeogeographic differences introduced between PlioMIP1 and 2 resulting in minimal land-sea mask variations from the modern. In addition, we present ten optional experiments designed to enhance our assessment of climate sensitivity and to explore the uncertainty in greenhouse gas-related forcing. For the first time, we introduce orbital sensitivity experiments into the science plan, as well as simulations incorporating dynamic vegetation-climate feedbacks and an experiment designed to examine the potential significance of East Antarctic Ice Sheet boundary condition uncertainty. These changes enhance palaeo-to-future scientific connections and enable an exploration of the significance of palaeogeographic uncertainties on climate simulations.

Climate modelling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of UMUSCL Scheme for DNS of Turbulent Flows

Direct numerical simulation (DNS) is performed using an unstructured node-based finite-volume methodology for canonical turbulent flow configurations to assess the effect of the upwinding parameter (κ) in the unstructured monotonic upstream scheme for conservation laws (UMUSCL) reconstruction scheme. The NASA FUN3D solver is used, and four turbulent validation cases are considered: periodic Taylor-Green vortex, (2) flow through a plane channel, (3) flow through a channel with a constriction, and (4) flow over a flat plate. The results are presented for κ = 0.5, 0.9 and 1 on hexahedral grids, with the last value corresponding to a zero-numerical dissipation scheme. Detailed comparisons with available reference data indicate that for the smallest length-scales simulated, κ = 0.5 is too dissipative while κ = 1 could lead to an energy build-up. Overall, κ =0.9 yields satisfactory results in terms of accuracy and robustness for all the cases considered in this study.

Direct Numerical Simulation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for SPERT III E-core reactivity measurement benchmarking

The Special Power Excursion Reactor Test (SPERT) III E-core experiment is important because it provides critical data on reactor behavior under significant reactivity insertions, which is essential for validating computer simulations and ensuring the safety of modern light water reactors. Its design similarities to contemporary reactors make it a valuable resource for understanding and mitigating extreme hazards in nuclear operations. The current study details the application of formal parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis to a model of the SPERT-III E-core model for zero power reactivity benchmarking. Additionally, the reactivity impact from various modeling assumptions is quantified. Overall, an conservative estimate for an uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$ of $\pm$1257 was observed. A less conservative, more realistic, uncertainty estimate of $\pm$1096 pcm can be justified by the potential for various parametric uncertainties to become negligible when sampled independently across the ~1400 pins in the core. The experimental results fall within both of these uncertainty bounds. Standardized regression coefficient as well as Sobol indices are used to identify the guide tube thicknesses as the primary contributors to the uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$. Overall, this study provides information on how the uncertainties in input parameters and modeling methods impact simulated k$_{\text{eff}}$ values and can be used to aid model building efforts for future code validation with the SPERT-III E-core experiment.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

NEXAFS Spectroscopy of P3HT and PBTTT at the Sulfur K-Edge

The sulfur K-edge near-edge X-ray absorption fine-structure (NEXAFS) spectra of the common conjugated polymers P3HT and PBTTT are studied from both experimental and theoretical perspectives. Experimental angle-resolved spectra are measured to characterize both the dominant peaks and the dichroism of the polymers. First-principles calculations using the density functional theory-based many-body X-ray absorption spectroscopy (MBXAS) method are performed for the two polymers as well as for the thiophene and thienothiophene units that make up the conjugated backbones of these polymers. Through this combined approach, we are able to confidently assign the observed peaks to specific molecular orbitals and identify the orientation of their transition dipole moments (TDMs) with respect to the coordinate frame of the polymer backbone. Here, in particular, we are able to establish the character and orthogonal nature of the three main low-energy peaks at: (i) 2473.5 eV, 1s → (S–C)π* with TDM along the π-stacking direction; (ii) 2474.1 eV, 1s → (S–C)σ* with TDM along the backbone; and (iii) 2475.4 eV, 1s → (S–C)σ* with TDM perpendicular to the first two. By performing both gas-phase and solid-state simulations, and with reference to the NEXAFS spectra of thiophene and thienothiophene building blocks, the influences of polymerization and molecular packing are also explored.

Chantler, Paul Alexander [Monash University, Clayt↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗