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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39

Nova Analysis (Final Technical Report)

As the adoption of solar plus storage technology is rapidly increasing, there is a need for a more wholistic view of homes adopting them. In homes, both energy efficiency (EE) upgrades and DERs provide value not just to the homeowner, but to utilities and even society at large through emissions. Traditionally, EE and DERs are separate sectors, which makes it difficult to understand the co-benefits of their adoption. To address this, we created a novel workflow of tools that allows for a complete analysis of both efficiency and DERs. We also looked at a suite of metrics designed to capture the different benefits provided to different stakeholders, demonstrated with multiple sets of field data. A final report demonstrates the potential of the simulation workflow by simulating hundreds of buildings spread across the U.S. and demonstrating how a variety of factors affect the optimal sizing of DERs along with several other key metrics including energy, utility bills, emissions, and average resilience hours.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Controller-Hardware-in-the-Loop Test Bed for Fast-Switching SiC-Based 50-kW PV Inverter

The recent advent of wideband gap power semiconductor devices will lay the path to the future power converters. These devices provide the advantage of high switching speed and lower losses. The high cost and high switching speeds of these devices provide a challenge in the development and validation of the fast switching inverter controls with accuracy of that of a hardware setup. In this paper an FPGA real-time simulator-based controller-hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL) testbed is used to verify the low-level and advanced inverter controls fast switching wide bandgap-based string photovoltaic inverter. The paper also includes development of the CHIL testbed, which is run at a time-step of 500 ns in order to implement 20 kHz switching frequency. The developed CHIL testbed is validated through experimental results from a three-phase, 50 kW, 480 VLLrms SiC devices based inverter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar (Final Report)

The most persistent challenge in both intraday and day-ahead solar forecasting is to get numerical weather prediction models to produce the right type of clouds with the right frequency at the right time and place. Another challenge is to understand and communicate the forecast uncertainty. The objective of this project was to develop an optimized ensemble-based solar irradiance forecasting system that will (1) demonstrably improve the current state-of-the-art solar forecasts from the deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar (WRF-Solar) model and (2) provide probabilistic forecasts for grid operations. This probabilistic solar forecasting system, referred to as the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), aims to significantly enhance both the intraday and the day-ahead solar forecasting capability for grid operations. This technical report summarizes the work performed in the past 3 years through a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Forecasting 2 program that aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy forecasts and enable increased deployment of solar energy on the electric grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Generic Photovoltaic Inverter Model in an Electromagnetic Transients Simulator for Transmission Connected Plants

This report proposes a generic model specification of a photovoltaic inverter applied in transmission-connected plants for implementation in an electromagnetic transients simulator. The model specification contains the necessary control loops to meet the fault ride-through performance requirements in the IEEE 2800-2022 standard. The report details the implementation and example parameterization of the model in PSCAD™. Simulation results verify the model meets the performance requirements. Comparisons of the model’s response to laboratory test measurements of a commercial 2.2 MVA storage inverter show the model can reasonably predict the response of commercial equipment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Nanometer-Scale Carrier Imaging of Potential-Induced Degradation in c-Si Solar Cells

We report on nm-resolution imaging of chargecarrier distribution around local potential-induced degradation (PID) defects using scanning capacitance microscopy. We imaged cross sections of heavily field-degraded module areas as cored out and selected by mm-scale photoluminescence imaging. Localized areas with abnormal carrier behavior or junction damage were found: the apparent n-type carrier extends vertically into the absorber to ~1-2 um from the cell surface, and laterally in similar lengths; in defect-free areas, the n-type carrier extends ~0.5 um, which is consistent with the junction depth. For comparison, we also investigated areas of the same module exhibiting less PID stress, and did not find any such heavily damaged junction area. Instead, we found slightly abnormal carrier behavior, where the carrier-type inversion in the absorber did not occur, but the p-type carrier concentration changed slightly in a much smaller lateral length of ~300 nm. These nanoelectrical findings suggest that the existing extended defects, which may not be significantly harmful to cell performance, were changed by PID to heavily damaged junction areas.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessment and Coordination of DER Cybersecurity Standards

Distributed energy resources (DERs) are becoming increasingly important to the electric grid, including solar energy systems. However, DERs also introduce new cybersecurity risks, including those posed by cloud computing. Standards harmonization is essential for ensuring that DERs are secure and can be safely integrated into the grid. This panel will discuss cyber standards harmonization for solar security. The panel will feature experts from the S2G Program, National Labs and Industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Disc dichotomy signature in the vertical distribution of [Mg/Fe] and the delayed gas infall scenario

Context. Analysis of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment project (APOGEE) data suggests the existence of a clear distinction between two sequences of disc stars in the [α/Fe] versus [Fe/H] abundance ratio space, known as the high- and low-α sequence, respectively. This dichotomy also emerges from an analysis of the vertical distribution of the [α/Fe] abundance ratio. Aims. We aim to test whether the revised two-infall chemical evolution models designed to reproduce the low- and high-α sequences in the [α/Fe] versus [Fe/H] ratios in the solar neighbourhood are also capable of predicting the disc bimodality observed in the vertical distribution of [Mg/Fe] in APOGEE DR16 data. Methods. Along with the chemical composition of the simple stellar populations born at different Galactic times predicted by our reference chemical evolution models in the solar vicinity, we provide their maximum vertical height above the Galactic plane |zmax| computed assuming the relation between the vertical action and stellar age in APOGEE thin-disc stars. Result. The vertical distribution of the [Mg/Fe] abundance ratio predicted by the reference chemical evolution models is in agreement with that observed when combining the APOGEE DR16 data (chemical abundances) with the astroNN catalogue (stellar ages, orbital parameters) for stars younger than 8 Gyr (only low-α sequence stars). Including the high-α disc component, the dichotomy in the vertical [Mg/Fe] abundance distribution is reproduced considering the observational cut in the Galactic height of |z|< 2 kpc. However, our model predicts an overly flat (almost constant) growth of the maximum vertical height |zmax| quantity as a function of [Mg/Fe] for high-α objects in contrast with the median values from APOGEE data. Possible explanations for such a tension are that: (i) the APOGEE sample with |z|< 2 kpc is more likely than ours to be contaminated by halo stars, causing the median values to be kinematically hotter, and (ii) external perturbations – such as minor mergers – that the Milky Way experienced in the past could have heated up the disc, and the heating of the orbits cannot be modeled by only scattering processes. Assuming a disc dissection based on chemistry for APOGEE-DR16 stars (|z|< 2 kpc), the observed |zmax| distributions for high-α and low-α sequences are in good agreement with our model predictions if we consider the errors in the vertical action estimates in the calculation. Moreover, a better agreement between predicted and observed stellar distributions at different Galactic vertical heights is achieved if asteroseismic ages are included as a constraint in the best-fit model calculations. Conclusions. The signature of a delayed gas infall episode, which gives rise to a hiatus in the star formation history of the Galaxy, are imprinted both in the [Mg/Fe] versus [Fe/H] relation and in vertical distribution of [Mg/Fe] abundances in the solar vicinity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images: Preprint

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗

Solar and battery can reduce energy costs and provide affordable outage backup for US households

Distributed energy resources are promising solutions for household energy affordability and resilience as weather extremes and aging infrastructure intensify grid reliability risks. This study presents a comprehensive nationwide assessment of over 500,000 U.S. households, evaluating economic and backup viability of solar-battery systems. We find that 60% of households could reduce electricity costs with average savings of 15%, while 63% of households could achieve affordable backup power during power outages covering an average of 51% of their essential energy needs. However, these benefits show limited alignment with areas of greatest need, particularly in regions facing high outage risks. We also identify significant disparities in access to solar and battery, with less-populated and disadvantaged communities showing consistently lower viability. Furthermore, these findings demonstrate the need for targeted policy interventions to ensure equitable access to solar-battery benefits, especially as states transition from net energy metering to other electricity tariff policies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Charting a Path for Reliable, Resilient and Affordable Clean Energy: A Roadmap for Three Communities in Utah

The roadmap identifies strategies to align deployment of distributed energy resources with the continued growth of utility-scale solar. The strategies outlined in the roadmap have been developed through collaborative discussions with project partners, but may not represent the opinions of, or positions of, all partner organizations and parties involved in the "Renewable Energy Impacts and Solutions in Utah" project. Rather, the strategies outlined in this Roadmap represent a suite of tools and actions that Salt Lake City, Park City, and the City of Moab can consider as each city works towards their community renewable electricity goals. While this Roadmap was developed to inform three communities as they progress towards their specific community energy goals, much of the analysis presented in the roadmap was conducted for Utah as a whole. Other communities in Utah can use the scenarios and strategies outlined in the roadmap to leverage the full potential of distributed energy resources to provide benefits to the community.

100% renewable↗

Performance Evaluation of an Advanced Distributed Energy Resource Management Algorithm

This paper presents performance evaluation of a new distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) algorithm via an advanced hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform. The HIL platform provides realistic testing in a laboratory environment, including the accurate modeling of sub-transmission and distribution networks, the DERMS software controller, and 84 power hardware solar photovoltaic (PV) inverters, standard communication protocols, and a capacitor bank controller. The DERMS algorithm is also called, Grid-Optimization of Solar (GO-Solar) platform which includes predictive state estimation (PSE) and online multiple objective optimization (OMOO) to dispatch the legacy devices and distributed energy resources (e.g., PV). The voltage regulation performance is evaluated under three scenarios, volt-var smart inverter (baseline), and DERMS control for 100% and 30% of PV. The results show that controlling 30% of PV systems with the GO-Solar platform may provide the best balance of control performance and implementation cost.

distributed energy resource management system (DER↗

Integrating solar into Florida's power system: Potential roles for flexibility

Although Florida has very little photovoltaic (PV) generation to date, it is reasonable to expect significant deployment in the 2020s under a variety of future policy and cost scenarios. To understand these potential futures, we model Florida Reliability Coordinating Council operations in 2026 over a wide range of PV penetrations with various combinations of battery storage capacity, demand response, and increased operational flexibility. By calculating the value of PV under a wide range of conditions, we find that at least 5%, and more likely 10-24%, PV penetration is cost competitive in Florida within the next decade with baseline flexibility and all but the most pessimistic of assumptions. For high PV penetrations, we demonstrate Florida's electrical net-load variability (duck curve) challenges, the associated reduction of PV's value to the system, and the ability of flexibility options-in particular energy-shifting resources-to preserve value and increase the economic carrying capacity of PV. A high level of demand response boosts the economic carrying capacity of PV by up to 0.5-2 percentage points, which is comparable to the impact of deploying 1 GW of battery storage. Adding 4 GW of battery storage expands the economic carrying capacity of PV by up to 6 percentage points.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Numerical Computation of Clear-Sky Transmittance and Reflectance of Solar Radiation for the Modeling of PV System Performance

Modeling of photovoltaics (PV) system performance requires numerical computation of plane-of-array (POA) irradiances that are influenced by atmospheric absorption and scattering. Clear-sky transmittance and reflectance of diffuse irradiance are essential for the understanding of solar radiation related to multiple reflection between land surface and clouds. This study analytically solves the radiative transfer equation for clear-sky conditions and numerically computes the transmittance and reflectance of diffuse irradiance as functions of the optical thickness of the atmosphere. The computation will be implemented in all-sky radiative transfer models to improve their computational efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Power System Flexibility Requirements and Supply

As penetrations of variable renewable energy generation technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) continue to increase across the United States, greater uncertainty and variability in the net load often lead to a concern about how power systems may adapt. Managing the system net load (i.e., load minus contribution from variable generation technologies) may become more challenging with increasing variable generation, as the magnitude and frequency of net ramps increase. However, there is inherent flexibility in power systems through the conventional generator fleet (under least-cost unit commitment and economic dispatch), less-conventional generation sources (e.g., storage, demand response, concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage), and imports and exports with neighbors. In this analysis, we create an open-source tool to analyze the flexibility of the results of a specific commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch tool (PLEXOS), but the code can be applied generically as well. The tool assesses the flexibility requirements (or demand) of a system through a net load analysis. The constraints and limitations of each generator are then considered to determine the availability (or supply) of flexibility. Then, the supply and demand of flexibility are compared to gain a more complete picture of potential flexibility concerns. We apply this open-source tool to high-penetration PV scenarios constructed for three focus regions in the western United States defined using the Resource Planning Model (RPM) capacity expansion modeling tool: RPM-OR, RPM-CO, and RPM-AZ. Generally, we find few flexibility concerns, as the western United States represents a large and interconnected power system with significant inherent flexibility. In addition, the PV scenarios we analyzed are overbuilt on capacity, leaving plenty of ramping ability on the system. We do find that for each focus region, the impact of imports on meeting ramping needs is essential. This means the PV integration in each focus region impacts the entire rest of the system. Each system has different dominant sources of flexibility. The conventional generator fleet (especially coal and gas combined-cycle technologies) as well as less-conventional sources such as storage are all shown to be important sources of flexibility. The scenarios evaluated here were designed to study the planning and operations impact of high solar penetration in each of three focus regions. However, none of the three focus regions likely will deploy PV in isolation, meaning the ability of imports and exports to provide flexibility may be considerably different in scenarios with strong PV deployment in every region. Overall, we intend that the framework we present here will be useful in future analysis of other system evolutions to identify whether and how flexibility may constrain the successful deployment of variable generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Enabling Floating Solar Photovoltaic (FPV) Deployment: FPV Technical Potential Assessment for Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia (SE Asia) is a region with growing energy demand and increasing development of floating solar photovoltaic (FPV) systems, which can help meet countries' renewable energy and energy security goals. This study uses a high-level geospatial assessment methodology to estimate the technical potential for monofacial and bifacial FPV on reservoirs and natural waterbodies in the ten countries within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Technical potential consists of the suitable waterbody area for FPV development (km 2 ), the capacity of FPV that could be installed on this suitable area (MW), and the annual energy that could be generated from these installations (GWh/year). This first-of-its-kind FPV technical potential assessment for SE Asia can help policymakers and planners better understand the role that FPV could play in meeting regional energy demand and can ultimately guide investment decisions. Although this work focuses on SE Asia, the methodology may also be applicable for countries in other regions, with adaptations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗