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At least 703 records · Page 39

Relationship between the Fluorescence Lifetime of Chlorophyll 'a' and Primary Productivity within the Mississippi River Plume and Adjacent Shelf Region

In situ measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence intensity have been widely used to estimate phytoplankton biomass. However, because the fluorescence quantum yield of chlorophyll a in vivo can be highly variable, measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence intensity cannot be directly correlated with phytoplankton biomass and do not provide information on the physiological state of the phytoplankton under study. Conversely, lifetime-based measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence provide a framework in which photosynthetic rates of phytoplankton can be analyzed according to phytoplankton physiology. Along with the measurement of primary production and ambient nutrient concentrations within the Mississippi River plume in the northern Gulf of Mexico, phytoplankton fluorescence lifetimes were measured using a Fluorescence Lifetime Phytoplankton Analyzer (developed under a NASA Small Business Innovative Research contract to Ciencia, Inc.). Variability of fluorescence lifetimes within the plume can be used as a background from which to interpret variations in the maximum quantum yield of photochemistry. The extent to which nutrient and effluent loading in this dynamic coastal area affect the photosynthetic performance of phytoplankton will be presented as a function of phytoplankton fluorescence lifetimes.

Hall, Callie↗

The Global Water Monitor: Lake, Wetland, and River Reach Monitoring for Resource Management and Hazard Observation

The Global Water Monitor is a monitoring program offering surface water-related products for lakes, reservoirs, river reaches, and wetlands, https://blueice.gsfc.nasa.gov/gwm. These products are derived from multiple satellite-based altimetry and multispectral imaging platforms. The primary measurements are water level, slope, and extent, derived from a series of NASA and other agency instruments (Sentinel-3,-6, ICESat-2, SWOT, MODIS). The system serves stakeholders, the US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service and the US Geological Survey, as well as various international, national, state, and intelligence agencies, engineers, ecologists, and hydrological researchers. Considering the sensitivity of ground-based data and the remote accessibility of many basins, the satellites offer global coverage, accuracy, and continuity of measurements. Observation of storage fluctuations in lakes and reservoirs provides users with knowledge of short and long-term drought conditions that can affect both water and energy resources. Emphasis is on changing climatic conditions, water sharing between nations, and regional stability. Measurements across a wetland complex can assist with efforts to assess hydrological dynamics with a focus on conservation efforts that aid both natural ecology and the sharing of precious water resources – the latter potentially being required in a basin across the municipal, crop irrigation, aquaculture, livestock, and power station spectrum. Observations of river reaches assists in the collection of basic hydraulic information, particularly in gauge-poor regions, for modelling efforts and the estimation of discharge, and at high-latitudes satellite-based river observations serve projects that warn of spring melts and flood hazards. We look at how recent improvements in instrument technology and mission operations are assisting with acquiring true global coverage and cross-validation efforts, and how stakeholders interact with the project in terms of setting requirements, product format, and accessibility methods. Examples show the application of the products across a range of programs, and in addition to meeting operational requirements, how the multi-decadal surface water levels are creating a high-quality timeline of Earth Data Records.

Lakes↗

Distortion Tolerant Control Demonstrated in Flight

Future aircraft turbine engines, both commercial and military, will have to be able to successfully accommodate expected increased levels of steady-state and dynamic engine-face distortion. Advanced tactical aircraft are likely to use thrust vectoring for enhanced aircraft maneuverability. As a result, the engines will see more extreme aircraft angle-of-attack alpha and sideslip beta levels than currently encountered with present-day aircraft. Also, the mixed-compression inlets needed for the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) will likely encounter disturbances similar to those seen by tactical aircraft, in addition to planar pulse, inlet buzz, and high distortion levels at low flight speed and off-design operation. The current approach of incorporating sufficient component design stall margin to tolerate these expected levels of distortion would result in significant performance penalties. The objective of NASA's High Stability Engine Control (HISTEC) program is to design, develop, and flight demonstrate an advanced, high-stability, integrated engine control system that uses measurement-based real-time estimates of distortion to enhance engine stability. The resulting distortion tolerant control adjusts the stall margin requirement online in real-time. This reduces the design stall margin requirement, with a corresponding increase in performance and decrease in fuel burn.

DeLaat, John C.↗

Distortion Tolerant Control Flight Demonstration Shown to Be Successful

Future aircraft turbine engines, both commercial and military, will have to be able to successfully accommodate expected increased levels of steady-state and dynamic engine-face distortion. Advanced tactical aircraft are likely to use thrust vectoring for enhanced aircraft maneuverability. As a result, the engines will see more extreme distortion levels than currently encountered with present-day aircraft. Also, the mixed-compression inlets needed for the High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) will likely encounter disturbances similar to those seen by tactical aircraft, in addition to planar pulse, inlet buzz, and high distortion levels at low flight speed and off-design operation. The current approach of incorporating sufficient component design stall margin to tolerate these expected levels of distortion would result in significant performance penalties. The objectives of NASA's High Stability Engine Control (HISTEC) program, which has reached a highly successful conclusion, were to design, develop, and flight demonstrate an advanced, high-stability, integrated engine control system that uses measurement-based real-time estimates of distortion to enhance engine stability. The resulting distortion tolerant control adjusts the stall margin requirement online in real time. This reduces the design stall margin requirement, with a corresponding increase in performance and decrease in fuel burn.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗

Viking Afterbody Heating Computations and Comparisons to Flight Data

Computational fluid dynamics predictions of Viking Lander 1 entry vehicle afterbody heating are compared to flight data. The analysis includes a derivation of heat flux from temperature data at two base cover locations, as well as a discussion of available reconstructed entry trajectories. Based on the raw temperature-time history data, convective heat flux is derived to be 0.63-1.10 W/cm2 for the aluminum base cover at the time of thermocouple failure. Peak heat flux at the fiberglass base cover thermocouple is estimated to be 0.54-0.76 W/cm2, occurring 16 seconds after peak stagnation point heat flux. Navier-Stokes computational solutions are obtained with two separate codes using an 8- species Mars gas model in chemical and thermal non-equilibrium. Flowfield solutions using local time-stepping did not result in converged heating at either thermocouple location. A global time-stepping approach improved the computational stability, but steady state heat flux was not reached for either base cover location. Both thermocouple locations lie within a separated flow region of the base cover that is likely unsteady. Heat flux computations averaged over the solution history are generally below the flight data and do not vary smoothly over time for both base cover locations. Possible reasons for the mismatch between flight data and flowfield solutions include underestimated conduction effects and limitations of the computational methods.

Edquist, Karl T.↗

Applications of the GPCP Satellite-Gauge Merged Precipitation Data Set to the Goals of PACS and GCIP

Recently, under the direction of GEWEX/GCIP there has been an attempt to link North American monsoon rainfall to precipitation in the Great Plains for the purposes of predictability on the seasonal time scale. Rain gauge analyses have been used to show continental-scale relationships. However, the interannual variability of warm season precipitation over the United States is linked to the east Pacific climate system. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite estimates of precipitation over oceans add a vital piece of information towards the goals of PACS and GCIP. This preliminary study will begin by focusing on the East Pacific sector. El-Nino-Southern Ossilation (ENSO) modulates the position and strength of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which affects the precipitation source for the Mexican monsoon. For example, the five driest summers in coastal Mexico occurred during the five strongest El Ninos (as determined by positive values of Nino 3.4) since 1979. Previous work has investigated lag-lead relationships between the North American monsoon and continental rainfall. GPCP has the potential to extend these relationships to a global scale. Finally data sets with a finer time and space scale, including Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) products, will be used to examine wave dynamics. Kelvin waves, in particular, may be trigger mechanisms for the onset of the North American monsoon.

Curtis, Scott↗

Testing theories of Gravitation with the Interstellar Probe Radio Experiment

General Relativity (GR) will soon celebrate its 110th birthday, holding up against all experimental enquiry. Nonetheless, unification theories attempting to quantize gravity, such as string theory, are gaining footing. These hypothesize additional scalar, vector, and tensor long-range fields that couple to matter (Will, 2014), introducing violations to GR. Although such violations have never been detected, it is likely that GR will not be the ultimate theory of gravity. What is certain is that gravity tests are alive and well, pushing the validity of GR to new scales and accuracies, or -potentially- suggesting alternative routes for new physics. Building upon the legacy of Voyager and Pioneer missions, which demonstrated the capability to survive in the outer reaches of the solar system, the Interstellar Probe mission concept (McNutt et al., 2022) aims to characterise our heliosphere through state-of-the-art instrumentation, opening new frontiers also for GR testing. In this work, we investigate the possibility of constraining the Nordtvedt parameter η and the mass of the graviton via the Compton wavelength λc, by simulating the processing of 10 years of radiometric data from the Interstellar Probe. Station calibration and clock synchronisation, as well as limiting spacecraft precession manoeuvres are highlighted as key strategies for obtaining high-quality estimates. In the most favourable scenario, η can be constrained to less than 1.5 · 10 -5 , reducing the uncertainty obtained via Lunar Laser Ranging (Hofmann and Müller, 2018), and a lower bound of 1.4 ‧ 10 14 km is set for λc, improving the estimates obtained from planetary ephemerides (Bernus et al., 2020) and gravitational wave detection (Abbott et al., Jun 2021). Extending ranging measurement acquisition to 20 years improves the results tenfold. This experiment interrogates fundamental physics from a unique dynamical setting, investigating possible violations of the Equivalence Principle (EP) underlying GR.

general relativity↗

Viking Afterbody Heating Computations and Comparisons to Flight Data

Computational fluid dynamics predictions of Viking Lander 1 entry vehicle afterbody heating are compared to flight data. The analysis includes a derivation of heat flux from temperature data at two base cover locations, as well as a discussion of available reconstructed entry trajectories. Based on the raw temperature-time history data, convective heat flux is derived to be 0.63-1.10 W/sq cm for the aluminum base cover at the time of thermocouple failure. Peak heat flux at the fiberglass base cover thermocouple is estimated to be 0.54-0.76 W/sq cm, occurring 16 seconds after peak stagnation point heat flux. Navier-Stokes computational solutions are obtained with two separate codes using an 8-species Mars gas model in chemical and thermal non-equilibrium. Flowfield solutions using local time-stepping did not result in converged heating at either thermocouple location. A global time-stepping approach improved the computational stability, but steady state heat flux was not reached for either base cover location. Both thermocouple locations lie within a separated flow region of the base cover that is likely unsteady. Heat flux computations averaged over the solution history are generally below the flight data and do not vary smoothly over time for both base cover locations. Possible reasons for the mismatch between flight data and flowfield solutions include underestimated conduction effects and limitations of the computational methods.

Edquist, Karl T.↗

Risks of Synchronized Low Yields Are Underestimated in Climate and Crop Model Projections

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

Probabilistic system identification in the time domain

The objective of system identification is to determine reliable dynamical models of a structure by systematically using its measured excitation and response. It brings together in an integrated fashion, experimental, analytical, and computational techniques in structural dynamics. Areas of application for system identification include the following: (1) Model Evaluation--assessing assumptions (linearity and equivalent viscous damping) and techniques (finite-element modeling) used to construct theoretical models of a structure; (2) Model Improvement--updating of a theoretical model to enable more accurate response predictions for possible future loads on the structure, or for control of the structure; (3) Empirical Modelling--developing empirical relationships (nonlinear models) or empirical parameter values (modal damping) because the present state of the art does not provide theoretical results; and (4) Damage Detection and Assessment--continual or episodic updating of a structural model through vibration monitoring to detect and locate any structural damage. It can be argued that since the construction or modification of models using test data is subject to inherent uncertainties, the above problems should be properly treated within a Bayesian probabilistic framework. Such a methodology is presented which allows the precision of the estimates of the model parameters to be computed. It also leads to a guiding principle in applications. Namely, when selecting a single model from a given class of models, one should take the most probable model in the class based on the experimental data. Practical applications of this principle are given which are based on the utilization of measured seismic motions in large civil structures. Examples include the application of a computer program MODE-ID to identify modal properties directly from seismic excitation and response time histories from a nine-story steel-frame building at JPL and from a freeway overpass bridge.

Beck, James L.↗

NASA Multidimensional Stirling Convertor Code Developed

A high-efficiency Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG) for use on potential NASA Space Science missions is being developed by the Department of Energy, Lockheed Martin, Stirling Technology Company, and the NASA Glenn Research Center. These missions may include providing spacecraft onboard electric power for deep space missions or power for unmanned Mars rovers. Glenn is also developing advanced technology for Stirling convertors, aimed at substantially improving the specific power and efficiency of the convertor and the overall power system. Performance and mass improvement goals have been established for second- and third-generation Stirling radioisotope power systems. Multiple efforts are underway to achieve these goals, both in house at Glenn and under various grants and contracts. These efforts include the development of a multidimensional Stirling computational fluid dynamics code, high-temperature materials, advanced controllers, an end-to-end system dynamics model, low-vibration techniques, advanced regenerators, and a lightweight convertor. Under a NASA grant, Cleveland State University (CSU) and its subcontractors, the University of Minnesota (UMN) and Gedeon Associates, have developed a twodimensional computer simulation of a CSUmod Stirling convertor. The CFD-ACE commercial software developed by CFD Research Corp. of Huntsville, Alabama, is being used. The CSUmod is a scaled version of the Stirling Technology Demonstrator Convertor (TDC), which was designed and fabricated by the Stirling Technology Company and is being tested by NASA. The schematic illustrates the structure of this model. Modeled are the fluid-flow and heat-transfer phenomena that occur in the expansion space, the heater, the regenerator, the cooler, the compression space, the surrounding walls, and the moving piston and displacer. In addition, the overall heat transfer, the indicated power, and the efficiency can be calculated. The CSUmod model is being converted to a two-dimensional model of the TDC at NASA Glenn. Validation of the multidimensional Stirling code is an important part of the grant effort. UMN has been generating data in an oscillating-flow test facility using two different test sections: a 90 turn and a cooler/regenerator/heater test section. CSU has created computational fluid dynamics models of both these test sections and has been making comparisons with the data, then improving their models to improve the agreement with the test data. CSU has also been using data available in the literature for code validation. UMN is now preparing to begin fabrication of a new 180 turn test section that will be more representative of certain portions of the Stirling engine geometry. Simulations to almost periodic steady state with the two-dimensional CSUmod model indicate that, to reach periodic steady state on a single 2-GHz desktop computer, 75 to 100 complete simulation cycles would be required and between 1 and 2 months of computer time. Therefore, Glenn has purchased the first 8 computers, of a 64-computer cluster, to be run in parallel to accelerate the simulation. On the basis of CFD Research Corp.'s experience with running the parallelized version of CFD-ACE on their clusters, we estimate that the complete 64-computer cluster will reduce simulation computing time by a factor of about 40. Plans are to continue development of these multidimensional Stirling codes and to use them to study the fluid-flow and heat-transfer phenomena that occur inside Stirling convertors. This is expected to lead to improved thermodynamic loss understanding, onedimensional design and performance codes, and engine performance.

Tew, Roy C.↗

Multi-Agency Annual Southeastern Beach Mouse Habitat Occupancy Monitoring

The southeastern beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris, hereafter SEBM), a federally threatened species was identified by Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR) as one of the top five priorities for management. The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Environmental Management Branch was asked to provide support in the form of population monitoring for SEBM on KSC and the surrounding properties. When we began the project, the SEBM was known to occupy sites ranging from Volusia through Brevard and Indian River Counties, but the exact distribution within the Federal lands encompassing the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island Complex (CCBIC) was not well known. The broad range of habitat conditions encompassing the species’ historical range and the diversity of sites historically known to contain SEBM required a landscape-scale approach for both monitoring the population and for investigating species habitat relationships. We designed a monitoring plan for the SEBM with the goal of estimating the habitat occupancy of beach mice annually each winter/spring throughout the entire area of suitable coastal habitat (approximately 72 km linear distance along the beach). Methods were tested in a 2008 pilot study, and during 2010-2018 we monitored the proportion of coastal habitat occupied by the SEBM on the CCBIC. Monitoring was focused on using dynamic habitat occupancy surveys with data collected with rapid assessment techniques (i.e., track tubes or live-traps) to detect SEBM occurrence at sampling stations. An important component of the study design was the use of repeated samples that provided the information needed to estimate detectability. Measuring detectability was required to account for the fact that surveys could fail to detect animals at sites at which they were actually present (Mackenzie et al., 2002). This monitoring framework is very flexible, allowing numerous hypothesis to be tested about how various factors influence beach mouse occupancy using habitat, geographic, and environmental covariates. Our survey has been the longest survey conducted for any of the seven extant beach mouse subspecies and has encompassed nearly the entire remaining range of the SEBM. Although occupancy surveys of other beach mouse subspecies via track tubes have been conducted on the Gulf coast of Florida by Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC), United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), and various universities, we expanded previous methods to fit unique aspects of the SEBM, and thus our study was very different from any of the previous studies. To achieve this specificity, we employed an adaptive approach throughout the study, with all activities aimed at providing managers with information related to environmental compliance and natural resource management on KSC and the surrounding Federal lands.

Eric Douglas Stolen↗

Utilization of STRAT Data

One of the goals of the STRAT mission was to improve our understanding of transport in the stratosphere. We have used our coupled 2-D model to analyse transport between the tropics and midlatitudes using aircraft measurements of (CO2) and (N2O) made during the SPADE and ASHOE/MAESA campaigns (Boering et al. 1994) for model validation. We have further used the model to estimate errors in the experimental determination of the age of stratospheric air that arise from nonlinear increases of real tracers such as (CO2) and (SF6). The interpretation of measurements made during STRAT is still in progress. Most of the work performed under this contract has been described in the second year progress report, submitted in April of 1996. In the following, the research is summarized and some additional work that has become relevant in the meantime is described. We have developed an interactive model of the dynamics, chemistry and radiation of the stratosphere with partial support from this contract. The dynamics module integrates the primitive equations on a sphere. Lower boundary zonal winds and eddy geopotential heights are specified from observations. Chemistry and tracer transport are done in two dimensions. The chemistry model is a family model. Long lived species are transported and short lived species are determined in intervals of 5 to 10 days by assuming photochemical steady state. Full diurnal integrations with the fast species are performed periodically and diurnal coefficients, derived from the explicit integration are used to determine the steady state solution. Heating rates in the stratosphere are calculated from model ozone and the model temperatures and circulation fields are used in the chemistry transport module.

Source record↗

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is carrying the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with 1" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of 1.5 Terabytes per day from SAO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." Our presentation will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO/HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗

Chemical Reaction and Flow Modeling in Fullerene and Nanotube Production

The development of processes to produce fullerenes and carbon nanotubes has largely been empirical. Fullerenes were first discovered in the soot produced by laser ablation of graphite [1]and then in the soot of electric arc evaporated carbon. Techniques and conditions for producing larger and larger quantities of fullerenes depended mainly on trial and error empirical variations of these processes, with attempts to scale them up by using larger electrodes and targets and higher power. Various concepts of how fullerenes and carbon nanotubes were formed were put forth, but very little was done based on chemical kinetics of the reactions. This was mainly due to the complex mixture of species and complex nature of conditions in the reactors. Temperatures in the reactors varied from several thousand degrees Kelvin down to near room temperature. There are hundreds of species possible, ranging from atomic carbon to large clusters of carbonaceous soot, and metallic catalyst atoms to metal clusters, to complexes of metals and carbon. Most of the chemical kinetics of the reactions and the thermodynamic properties of clusters and complexes have only been approximated. In addition, flow conditions in the reactors are transient or unsteady, and three dimensional, with steep spatial gradients of temperature and species concentrations. All these factors make computational simulations of reactors very complex and challenging. This article addresses the development of the chemical reaction involved in fullerene production and extends this to production of carbon nanotubes by the laser ablation/oven process and by the electric arc evaporation process. In addition, the high-pressure carbon monoxide (HiPco) process is discussed. The article is in several parts. The first one addresses the thermochemical aspects of modeling; and considers the development of chemical rate equations, estimates of reaction rates, and thermodynamic properties where they are available. The second part addresses modeling of the arc process for fullerene and carbon nanotube production using O-D, 1-D and 2-D fluid flow models. The third part addresses simulations of the pulsed laser ablation process using time-dependent techniques in 2-D, and a steady state 2-D simulation of a continuous laser ablation process. The fourth part addresses steady state modeling in O-D and 2-D of the HiPco process. In each of the simulations, there is a variety of simplifications that are made that enable one to concentrate on one aspect or another of the process. There are simplifications that can be made to the chemical reaction models , e.g. reduction in number of species by lumping some of them together in a representative species. Other simulations are carried out by eliminating the chemistry altogether in order to concentrate on the fluid dynamics. When solving problems with a large number of species in more than one spatial dimension, it is almost imperative that the problem be decoupled by solving for the fluid dynamics to find the fluid motion and temperature history of "particles" of fluid moving through a reactor. Then one can solve the chemical rate equations with complex chemistry following the temperature and pressure history. One difficulty is that often mixing with an ambient gas is involved. Therefore, one needs to take dilution and mixing into account. This changes the ratio of carbon species to background gas. Commercially available codes may have no provision for including dilution as part of the input. One must the write special solvers for including dilution in decoupled problems. The article addresses both ful1erene production and single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) production. There are at least two schemes or concepts of SWNT growth. This article will only address growth in the gas phase by carbon and catalyst cluster growth and SW T formation by the addition of carbon. There are other models that conceive of SWNT growth as a phase separation process from clusters me up carbon and metal catalyst, with the carbon precipitating from the cluster as it cools. We will not deal with that concept in this article. Further research is needed to determine the rates at which these composite clusters form, evaporate, and segregate.

Scott, Carl D.↗

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The imminent launch of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will carry the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with I" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of ~1.5 Terabytes per day from SDO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." This talk will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO /HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗

NASA's High-Resolution GEOS Forecasting and Reanalysis Products: A Unified Tool from Local to Global Scales

NASA's GMAO produces high-resolution global forecasts for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric chemical composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km), freely available to the public. This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). GEOS-CF also assimilated satellite observations into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke. The assimilation system is currently being expanded to include chemically reactive trace gases. While the main focus of this new product is on tropospheric air quality information, the GEOS-Chem chemistry model used in this system includes the unified tropospheric stratospheric chemistry mechanism for improved forecasts of total column ozone during anomalous dynamical and chemical events. I will discuss current capabilities of the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) to improve atmospheric composition modeling and possible future directions for GEOS-CF and reanalysis products. In addition, I will show how machine learning techniques can be used to correct for sub-grid-scale variability, which further improves model estimates at a given observation site.

Co-DAS↗

Lithium-ion Battery Strain Gauge Monitoring and Depth of Discharge Estimation

Lithium-ion battery diagnostics and prognostics rely on measurements of electrical impedance, capacity, and voltage to infer the internal state of the battery. Mechanical changes to the cell structure represent an additional measure of the battery’s state because these changes are related to the overall battery health. As lithium-ion batteries are charged and discharged, lithium ions are inserted or removed from the anode and cathode, a process called intercalation and de-intercalation. As lithium ions intercalate and de-intercalate, they can cause changes to the lattice of the electrode particles, resulting in volumetric changes. These volumetric changes cause mechanical stresses and strains on the lithium-ion battery electrodes, and subsequently, the whole cell’s thickness varies as it is charged and discharged. This paper presents a study on the use of surface-mounted strain gauges for in-situ measurement of structural changes to lithium-ion batteries, along with a characterization of the unit-to-unit differences in strain response. A neural network modeling structure is then used to predict the battery’s depth of discharge under dynamic discharge conditions.

Lithium-ion batteries, depth of discharge, strain ↗