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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Development of a Zealand white rabbit deposition model to study inhalation anthrax

Despite using rabbits in several inhalation exposure experiments to study diseases such as anthrax, there is a lack of understanding regarding deposition characteristics and fate of inhaled particles (bio-aerosols and viruses) in the respiratory tracts of rabbits. Such information allows dosimetric extrapolation to humans to inform human outcomes. The lung geometry of the New Zealand white rabbit (referred to simply as rabbits throughout the article) was constructed using recently acquired scanned images of the conducting airways of rabbits and available information on its acinar region. In addition, functional relationships were developed for the lung and breathing parameters of rabbits as a function of body weight. The lung geometry and breathing parameters were used to extend the existing deposition model for humans and several other species to rabbits. Evaluation of the deposition model for rabbits was made by comparing predictions with available measurements in the literature. Deposition predictions in the lungs of rabbits indicated smaller deposition fractions compared to those found in humans across various particle diameter ranges. The application of the deposition model for rabbits was demonstrated by extrapolating deposition predictions in rabbits to find equivalent human exposure concentrations assuming the same dose-response relationship between the two species. Human equivalent exposure concentration levels were found to be much smaller than those for rabbits.

deposition modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of machine learning models to improve streamflow prediction under changing climate and environmental conditions

Machine learning (ML) models, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in streamflow prediction and are increasingly being used by the hydrological research community. However, most of these applications do not include uncertainty quantification (UQ). ML models are data driven and can suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to changing climate/environmental conditions. UQ is required to quantify the influence of data noises on model predictions and avoid overconfident projections in extrapolation. In this work, we integrate a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, with LSTM networks for streamflow prediction. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks. It can precisely quantify the predictive uncertainty caused by the data noise and identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a non-stationary condition to avoid overconfident predictions. We apply the PI3NN-LSTM method in the snow-dominant East River Watershed in the western US and in the rain-driven Walker Branch Watershed in the southeastern US. Results indicate that for the prediction data which have similar features as the training data, PI3NN precisely quantifies the predictive uncertainty with the desired confidence level; and for the OOD data where the LSTM network fails to make accurate predictions, PI3NN produces a reasonably large uncertainty indicating that the results are not trustworthy and should avoid overconfidence. PI3NN is computationally efficient, robust in performance, and generalizable to various network structures and data with no distributional assumptions. It can be broadly applied in ML-based hydrological simulations for credible prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Methods for Measuring and Computing the Reference Temperature in Newton’s Law of Cooling for External Flows

Newton’s law of cooling requires a reference temperature (𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 ) to define the heat-transfer coefficient (ℎ). For external flows with multiple temperatures in the freestream, obtaining 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 is a challenge. One widely used method, referred to as the adiabatic-wall (AW) method, obtains 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 by requiring the surface of the solid exposed to convective heat transfer to be adiabatic. Another widely used method, referred to as the linear-extrapolation (LE) method, obtains 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 by measuring/computing the heat flux ($𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$) on the solid surface at two different surface temperatures (𝑇 𝑠 ) and then linearly extrapolating to $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ = 0. A third recently developed method, referred to as the state-space (SS) method, obtains 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 by probing the temperature space between the highest and lowest in the flow to account for the effects of 𝑇 𝑠 or $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ on 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 . This study examines the foundation and accuracy of these methods via a test problem involving film cooling of a flat plate where $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ switches signs on the plate’s surface. Results obtained show that only the SS method could guarantee a unique and physically meaningful 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 where 𝑇 𝑠 =𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 on a nonadiabatic surface $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ = 0. The AW and LE methods both assume 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 to be independent of 𝑇 𝑠 , which the SS method shows to be incorrect. Though this study also showed the adiabatic-wall temperature, 𝑇 𝐴𝑊 , to be a good approximation of 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 (<10% relative error), huge errors can occur in ℎ about the solid surface where |𝑇 𝑠 −𝑇 𝐴𝑊 | is near zero because where 𝑇 𝑠 =𝑇 𝐴𝑊 , $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ ≠ 0.

Newton's law of cooling↗
DOE OSTI2024

QED Meson Description of the Anomalous Particles at ∼17 and ∼38 MeV

The Schwinger confinement mechanism stipulates that a massless fermion and a massless antifermion are confined as a massive boson when they interact in the Abelian QED interaction in (1+1)D.If we approximate light quarks as massless and apply the Schwinger confinement mechanism to quarks, we can infer that a light quark and a light antiquark interacting in the Abelian QED interaction are confined as a QED meson in (1+1)D. Similarly, a light quark and a light antiquark interacting in the QCD interaction in the quasi-Abelian approximation will be confined as a QCD meson in (1+1)D. The QED and QCD mesons in (1+1)D can represent physical mesons in (3+1)D when the flux tube radius is properly taken into account. Such a theory leads to a reasonable description of the masses of π0,η, and η′, and its extrapolation to the unknown QED sector yields an isoscalar QED meson at about 17 MeV and an isovector QED meson at about 38 MeV. The observations of the anomalous soft photons, the hypothetical X17 particle, and the hypothetical E38 particle bear promising evidence for the possible existence of the QED mesons. Pending further confirmation, they hold important implications on the properties on the quarks and their interactions.

Wong, Cheuk-Yin (ORCID:0000000182230659)↗
DOE OSTI2016

Detailed opacity comparison for an improved stellar modeling of the envelopes of massive stars

Seismic observations have led to doubts or ambiguities concerning the opacity calculations used in stellar physics. Here, we concentrate on the iron-group opacity peak, due to iron, nickel, and chromium, located around T = 200,000 K for densities from 10{sup −8} to 10{sup −4} g cm{sup −3}, which creates some convective layers in stellar radiative envelopes for masses between 3 and 18 M{sub ⊙}. These conditions were extensively studied in the 1980s. More recently, inconsistencies between OP and OPAL opacity calculations have complicated the interpretation of seismic observations as the iron-group opacity peak excites acoustic and gravity modes in SPB, β Cephei, and sdB stars. We investigate the reliability of the theoretical opacity calculations using the modern opacity codes ATOMIC and SCO-RCG. We show their temperature and density dependence for conditions that are achievable in the laboratory and equivalent to astrophysical conditions. We also compare new theoretical opacity spectra with OP spectra and quantify how different approximations impact the Rosseland mean calculations.This detailed study estimates new ATOMIC and SCO-RCG Rosseland mean values for astrophysical conditions which we compare to OP values. Some puzzling questions are still under investigation for iron, but we find a strong increase in the Rosseland mean nickel opacity of a factor between 2 and 6 compared to OP. This appears to be due to the use of extrapolated atomic data for the Ni opacity within the OP calculations. A study on chromium is also shown.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Measurements of extragalactic background light from the far UV to the far ir from deep ground- and space-based galaxy counts

We combine wide and deep galaxy number-count data from the Galaxy And Mass Assembly, COSMOS/G10, Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Early Release Science, HST UVUDF, and various near-, mid-, and far-IR data sets from ESO, Spitzer, and Herschel. The combined data range from the far UV (0.15 μm) to far-IR (500 μm), and in all cases the contribution to the integrated galaxy light (IGL) of successively fainter galaxies converges. Using a simple spline fit, we derive the IGL and the extrapolated IGL in all bands. We argue that undetected low-surface-brightness galaxies and intracluster/group light are modest, and that our extrapolated-IGL measurements are an accurate representation of the extragalactic background light (EBL). Our data agree with most earlier IGL estimates and with direct measurements in the far IR, but disagree strongly with direct estimates in the optical. Close agreement between our results and recent very high-energy experiments (H.E.S.S. and MAGIC) suggests that there may be an additional foreground affecting the direct estimates. The most likely culprit could be the adopted model of zodiacal light. Finally we use a modified version of the two-component model to integrate the EBL and obtain measurements of the cosmic optical background (COB) and cosmic infrared background of 24{sub −4}{sup +4} nW m{sup −2} sr{sup −1} and 26{sub −5}{sup +5} nW m{sup −2} sr{sup −1} respectively (48%:52%). Over the next decade, upcoming space missions such as Euclid and the Wide Field Infrared Space Telescope will have the capacity to reduce the COB error to <1%, at which point comparisons to the very high-energy data could have the potential to provide a direct detection and measurement of the reionization field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Metal-silicate Partitioning and Its Role in Core Formation and Composition on Super-Earths

We use a thermodynamic framework for silicate-metal partitioning to determine the possible compositions of metallic cores on super-Earths. We compare results using literature values of the partition coefficients of Si and Ni, as well as new partition coefficients calculated using results from laser shock-induced melting of powdered metal-dunite targets at pressures up to 276 GPa, which approaches those found within the deep mantles of super-Earths. We find that larger planets may have little to no light elements in their cores because the Si partition coefficient decreases at high pressures. The planet mass at which this occurs will depend on the metal-silicate equilibration depth. We also extrapolate the equations of state (EOS) of FeO and FeSi alloys to high pressures, and present mass–radius diagrams using self-consistent planet compositions assuming equilibrated mantles and cores. We confirm the results of previous studies that the distribution of elements between mantle and core will not be detectable from mass and radius measurements alone. While observations may be insensitive to interior structure, further modeling is sensitive to compositionally dependent properties, such as mantle viscosity and core freeze-out properties. We therefore emphasize the need for additional high pressure measurements of partitioning as well as EOSs, and highlight the utility of the Sandia Z-facilities for this type of work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Action-based Dynamical Modeling for the Milky Way Disk: The Influence of Spiral Arms

RoadMapping is a dynamical modeling machinery developed to constrain the Milky Way’s (MW) gravitational potential by simultaneously fitting an axisymmetric parametrized potential and an action-based orbit distribution function (DF) to discrete 6D phase-space measurements of stars in the Galactic disk. In this work, we demonstrate RoadMapping's robustness in the presence of spiral arms by modeling data drawn from an N-body simulation snapshot of a disk-dominated galaxy of MW mass with strong spiral arms (but no bar), exploring survey volumes with radii 500 pc⩽r{sub max}⩽5 kpc. The potential constraints are very robust, even though we use a simple action-based DF, the quasi-isothermal DF. The best-fit RoadMapping model always recovers the correct gravitational forces where most of the stars that entered the analysis are located, even for small volumes. For data from large survey volumes, RoadMapping finds axisymmetric models that average well over the spiral arms. Unsurprisingly, the models are slightly biased by the excess of stars in the spiral arms. Gravitational potential models derived from survey volumes with at least r{sub max}=3 kpc can be reliably extrapolated to larger volumes. However, a large radial survey extent, r{sub max}∼5 kpc, is needed to correctly recover the halo scale length. In general, the recovery and extrapolability of potentials inferred from data sets that were drawn from inter-arm regions appear to be better than those of data sets drawn from spiral arms. Our analysis implies that building axisymmetric models for the Galaxy with upcoming Gaia data will lead to sensible and robust approximations of the MW’s potential.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

First Discoveries of z > 6 Quasars with the DECam Legacy Survey and UKIRT Hemisphere Survey

In this paper, we present the first discoveries from a survey of z ≳ 6 quasars using imaging data from the DECam Legacy Survey (DECaLS) in the optical, the UKIRT Deep Infrared Sky Survey (UKIDSS) and a preliminary version of the UKIRT Hemisphere Survey (UHS) in the near-IR, and ALLWISE in the mid-IR. DECaLS will image 9000 deg 2 of sky down to z AB ~ 23.0, and UKIDSS and UHS will map the northern sky at 0 < decl. < +60°, reaching J VEGA ~ 19.6 (5-σ). The combination of these data sets allows us to discover quasars at redshift z ≳ 7 and to conduct a complete census of the faint quasar population at z ≳ 6. In this paper, we report on the selection method of our search, and on the initial discoveries of two new, faint z ≳ 6 quasars and one new z = 6.63 quasar in our pilot spectroscopic observations. The two new z ~ 6 quasars are at z = 6.07 and z = 6.17 with absolute magnitudes at rest-frame wavelength 1450 Å being M 1450 = -25.83 and M 1450 = -25.76, respectively. These discoveries suggest that we can find quasars close to or fainter than the break magnitude of the Quasar Luminosity Function (QLF) at z ≳ 6. The new z = 6.63 quasar has an absolute magnitude of M 1450 = -25.95. This demonstrates the potential of using the combined DECaLS and UKIDSS/UHS data sets to find z ≳ 7 quasars. Finally, extrapolating from previous QLF measurements, we predict that these combined data sets will yield ~200 z ~ 6 quasars to z AB < 21.5, ~1000 z ~ 6 quasars to z AB < 23, and ~30 quasars at z > 6.5 to J VEGA < 19.5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Cosmic Shoreline: The Evidence that Escape Determines which Planets Have Atmospheres, and what this May Mean for Proxima Centauri B

The planets of the solar system are neatly divided between those with atmospheres and those without when arranged by insolation (I) and escape velocity (v{sub esc}). The dividing line goes at I∝v{sub esc}{sup 4}. Exoplanets with reported masses and radii are shown to crowd against the extrapolation of the solar system trend, making a metaphorical cosmic shoreline that unites all the planets. The I∝v{sub esc}{sup 4} relation may implicate thermal escape. We therefore address the general behavior of hydrodynamic thermal escape models ranging from Pluto to highly irradiated extrasolar giant planets (EGPs). Energy-limited escape is harder to test because copious XUV radiation is mostly a feature of young stars, and hence requires extrapolating to historic XUV fluences (I{sub xuv}) using proxies and power laws. An energy-limited shoreline should scale as I{sub xuv}∝v{sub esc}{sup 3}√ρ, which differs distinctly from the apparent I{sub xuv}∝v{sub esc}{sup 4} relation. Energy-limited escape does provide good quantitative agreement to the highly irradiated EGPs. Diffusion-limited escape implies that no planet can lose more than 1% of its mass as H{sub 2}. Impact erosion, to the extent that impact velocities v{sub imp} can be estimated for exoplanets, fits a v{sub imp}≈4--5 v{sub esc} shoreline. The proportionality constant is consistent with what the collision of comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 showed us we should expect of modest impacts in deep atmospheres. With respect to the shoreline, Proxima Centauri b is on the metaphorical beach. Known hazards include its rapid energetic accretion, high impact velocities, its early life on the wrong side of the runaway greenhouse, and Proxima Centauri’s XUV radiation. In its favor is a vast phase space of unknown unknowns.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Magneto-static Modeling from Sunrise/IMaX: Application to an Active Region Observed with Sunrise II

Magneto-static models may overcome some of the issues facing force-free magnetic field extrapolations. So far they have seen limited use and have faced problems when applied to quiet-Sun data. Here we present a first application to an active region. We use solar vector magnetic field measurements gathered by the IMaX polarimeter during the flight of the Sunrise balloon-borne solar observatory in 2013 June as boundary conditions for a magneto-static model of the higher solar atmosphere above an active region. The IMaX data are embedded in active region vector magnetograms observed with SDO /HMI. This work continues our magneto-static extrapolation approach, which was applied earlier to a quiet-Sun region observed with Sunrise I. In an active region the signal-to-noise-ratio in the measured Stokes parameters is considerably higher than in the quiet-Sun and consequently the IMaX measurements of the horizontal photospheric magnetic field allow us to specify the free parameters of the model in a special class of linear magneto-static equilibria. The high spatial resolution of IMaX (110–130 km, pixel size 40 km) enables us to model the non-force-free layer between the photosphere and the mid-chromosphere vertically by about 50 grid points. In our approach we can incorporate some aspects of the mixed beta layer of photosphere and chromosphere, e.g., taking a finite Lorentz force into account, which was not possible with lower-resolution photospheric measurements in the past. The linear model does not, however, permit us to model intrinsic nonlinear structures like strongly localized electric currents.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Supercharged Octane Number and a Supercharged Octane Index

Gasoline knock resistance is characterized by the Research and Motor Octane Number (RON and MON), which are rated on the CFR octane rating engine at naturally aspirated conditions. However, modern automotive downsized boosted spark ignition (SI) engines generally operate at higher cylinder pressures and lower temperatures relative to the RON and MON tests. Using the naturally aspirated RON and MON ratings, the octane index (OI) characterizes the knock resistance of gasolines under boosted operation by linearly extrapolating into boosted “beyond RON” conditions via RON, MON, and a linear regression K factor. Using OI solely based on naturally aspirated RON and MON tests to extrapolate into boosted conditions can lead to significant errors in predicting boosted knock resistance between gasolines due to non-linear changes in autoignition and knocking characteristics with increasing pressure conditions. Here, a new “Supercharged Octane Number” (SON) method was developed on the CFR engine at increased intake pressures, which improved the correlation to boosted knock-limited automotive SI engine data over RON for several surrogate fuels and gasolines, including five “Co-Optima” RON 98 fuels and an E10 regular grade gasoline. Furthermore, the conventional OI was extended to a newly introduced Supercharged Octane Index (OI S ) based on SON and RON, which significantly improved the correlation to fuel knock resistance measurements from modern boosted SI engine knock-limited spark advance tests. This demonstrated the first proof of concept of a SON and OI S to better characterize a fuel’s knock resistance in modern boosted SI engines.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate Constructed Scalable Circuits ADAPT-VQE in the Schwinger model

Inspired by recent advancements of simulating periodic systems on quantum computers, we develop a new approach, (SC)$^2$-ADAPT-VQE, to further advance the simulation of these systems. Our approach extends the scalable circuits ADAPT-VQE framework, which builds an ansatz from a pool of coordinate-invariant operators defined for arbitrarily large, though not arbitrarily small, volumes. Our method uses a classically tractable ``Surrogate Constructed'' method to remove irrelevant operators from the pool, reducing the minimum size for which the scalable circuits are defined. Bringing together the scalable circuits and the surrogate constructed approaches forms the core of the (SC)$^2$ methodology. Our approach allows for a wider set of classical computations, on small volumes, which can be used for a more robust extrapolation protocol. While developed in the context of lattice models, the surrogate construction portion is applicable to a wide variety of problems where information about the relative importance of operators in the pool is available. As an example, we use it to compute properties of the Schwinger model - quantum electrodynamics for a single, massive fermion in $1+1$ dimensions - and show that our method can be used to accurately extrapolate to the continuum limit.

Gustafson, Erik [RIACS, Mtn. View] (ORCID:00000001↗
DOE OSTI2025

Window observables for benchmarking parton distribution functions

Global analysis of collider and fixed-target experimental data and calculations from lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) are used to gain complementary information on the structure of hadrons. We propose novel ``window observables'' that allow for higher precision cross-validation between the different approaches, a critical step for studies that wish to combine the datasets. Global analyses are limited by the kinematic regions accessible to experiment, particularly in a range of Bjorken-x, and lattice QCD calculations also have limitations requiring extrapolations to obtain the parton distributions. We provide two different ``window observables'' that can be defined within a region of x where extrapolations and interpolations in global analyses remain reliable and where lattice QCD results retain sensitivity and precision.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representativeness assessment of the pan-Arctic eddy covariance site network and optimized future enhancements

Abstract. Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the past decades, a growing network of terrestrial EC tower sites has been established across the Arctic, but a comprehensive assessment of the network's representativeness within the heterogeneous Arctic region is still lacking. This creates additional uncertainties when integrating flux data across sites, for example when upscaling fluxes to constrain pan-Arctic carbon budgets and changes therein. This study provides an inventory of Arctic (here > = 60∘ N) EC sites, which has also been made available online (https://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/carbon-flux-sites/, last access: 25 January 2022). Our database currently comprises 120 EC sites, but only 83 are listed as active, and just 25 of these active sites remain operational throughout the winter. To map the representativeness of this EC network, we evaluated the similarity between environmental conditions observed at the tower locations and those within the larger Arctic study domain based on 18 bioclimatic and edaphic variables. This allows us to assess a general level of similarity between ecosystem conditions within the domain, while not necessarily reflecting changes in greenhouse gas flux rates directly. We define two metrics based on this representativeness score: one that measures whether a location is represented by an EC tower with similar characteristics (ER1) and a second for which we assess if a minimum level of representation for statistically rigorous extrapolation is met (ER4). We find that while half of the domain is represented by at least one tower, only a third has enough towers in similar locations to allow reliable extrapolation. When we consider methane measurements or year-round (including wintertime) measurements, the values drop to about 1/5 and 1/10 of the domain, respectively. With the majority of sites located in Fennoscandia and Alaska, these regions were assigned the highest level of network representativeness, while large parts of Siberia and patches of Canada were classified as underrepresented. Across the Arctic, mountainous regions were particularly poorly represented by the current EC observation network. We tested three different strategies to identify new site locations or upgrades of existing sites that optimally enhance the representativeness of the current EC network. While 15 new sites can improve the representativeness of the pan-Arctic network by 20 %, upgrading as few as 10 existing sites to capture methane fluxes or remain active during wintertime can improve their respective ER1 network coverage by 28 % to 33 %. This targeted network improvement could be shown to be clearly superior to an unguided selection of new sites, therefore leading to substantial improvements in network coverage based on relatively small investments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-term uncertainty quantification in WRF-modeled offshore wind resource off the US Atlantic coast

Uncertainty quantification of long-term modeled wind speed is essential to ensure stakeholders can best leverage wind resource numerical data sets. Offshore, this need is even stronger given the limited availability of observations of wind speed at heights relevant for wind energy purposes and the resulting heavier relative weight of numerical data sets for wind energy planning and operational projects. In this analysis, we consider the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 21-year updated numerical offshore data set for the US East Coast and provide a methodological framework to leverage both floating lidar and near-surface buoy observations in the region to quantify uncertainty in the modeled hub-height wind resource. We first show how using a numerical ensemble to quantify the uncertainty in modeled wind speed is insufficient to fully capture the model deviation from real-world observations. Next, we train and validate a random forest to vertically extrapolate near-surface wind speed to hub height using the available short-term lidar data sets in the region. We then apply this model to vertically extrapolate the long-term near-surface buoy wind speed observations to hub height so that they can be directly compared to the long-term numerical data set. We find that the mean 21-year uncertainty in 140 m hourly average wind speed is slightly lower than 3 m s -1 (roughly 30m% of the mean observed wind speed) across the considered region. Atmospheric stability is strictly connected to the modeled wind speed uncertainty, with stable conditions associated with an uncertainty which is, on average, about 20 % larger than the overall mean uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting Polymer Degradation and Mechanical Property Changes for Combined Radiation-Thermal Aging Environments

Here, a new approach is presented for conducting and extrapolating combined environment (radiation plus thermal) accelerated aging experiments. The method involves a novel way of applying the time-temperature-dose rate (t-T-R) approach derived many years ago, which assumes that by simultaneously accelerating the thermal-initiation rate (from Arrhenius T-only analysis) and the radiation dose rate R by the same factor x, the overall degradation rate will increase by the factor x. The dose rate assumption implies that equal dose yields equal damage, which is equivalent to assuming the absence of dose-rate effects (DRE). A plot of inverse absolute temperature versus the log of the dose rate is used to indicate experimental conditions consistent with the model assumptions, which can be derived along lines encompassing so-called matched accelerated conditions (MAC lines). Aging trends taken along MAC lines for several elastomers confirms the underlying model assumption and therefore indicates, contrary to many past published results, that DRE are typically not present. In addition, the MAC approach easily accommodates the observation that substantial degradation chemistry changes occur as aging conditions transition R-T space from radiation domination (high R, low T) to temperature domination (low R, high T). The MAC-line approach also suggests an avenue for gaining more confidence in extrapolations of accelerated MAC-line data to ambient aging conditions by using ultrasensitive oxygen consumption (UOC) measurements taken along the MAC line both under the accelerated conditions and at ambient. From UOC data generated under combined R-T conditions, this approach is tested and quantitatively confirmed for one of the materials. In analogy to the wear-out approach developed previously for thermo-oxidative aging, the MAC-line concept can also be used to predict the remaining lifetimes of samples extracted periodically from ambient environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗