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2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report

As earth system models (ESMs) become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistryclimate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing the acknowledged substantial uncertainties in 21st century climate change projections.

earth system models (ESMs)↗

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulated wildfire burned area over the CONUS during 2001-2020

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

Liu, Ye↗

Mid-Holocene Antarctic sea-ice increase driven by marine ice sheet retreat

Abstract. Over recent decades Antarctic sea-ice extent has increased, alongside widespread ice shelf thinning and freshening of waters along the Antarctic margin. In contrast, Earth system models generally simulate a decrease in sea ice. Circulation of water masses beneath large-cavity ice shelves is not included in current Earth System models and may be a driver of this phenomena. We examine a Holocene sediment core off East Antarctica that records the Neoglacial transition, the last major baseline shift of Antarctic sea ice, and part of a late-Holocene global cooling trend. We provide a multi-proxy record of Holocene glacial meltwater input, sediment transport, and sea-ice variability. Our record, supported by high-resolution ocean modelling, shows that a rapid Antarctic sea-ice increase during the mid-Holocene (∼ 4.5 ka) occurred against a backdrop of increasing glacial meltwater input and gradual climate warming. We suggest that mid-Holocene ice shelf cavity expansion led to cooling of surface waters and sea-ice growth that slowed basal ice shelf melting. Incorporating this feedback mechanism into global climate models will be important for future projections of Antarctic changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape

Arctic warming is altering vegetation and carbon dynamics with global implications, yet Earth System Model (ESM) predictions in the Arctic remain highly uncertain, in part due to historically limited data for model parameterization and validation. As such, ESMs typically represent Arctic ecosystems in an oversimplified manner. Recently, nine plant functional types (PFTs) designed to realistically represent tundra vegetation were integrated into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) and parameterized using plot-scale observations from a single site. Additional evaluation was needed to determine their transferability across the Arctic. Here, in this study, we evaluated whether refined representation of tundra vegetation improved model accuracy by conducting spatially explicit 100 × 100 m resolution ELM simulations on Alaska's Seward Peninsula. Simulations with the default two-PFT configuration and with the nine Arctic-specific PFTs were benchmarked against observations of net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and aboveground biomass from multiple data streams including an eddy covariance flux tower, flux chambers, and aircraft and unoccupied aerial system hyperspectral remote sensing. Evaluation revealed that Arctic-specific PFT simulations produced more realistic landscape-level carbon exchanges, and better captured observed heterogeneity in biomass and productivity, explaining 60%–70% of spatial variance (R 2 = 0.6–0.7) compared to just 12%–18% (R 2 = 0.12–0.18) with the default configuration. However, the refined model failed to reproduce observed aboveground biomass for highly productive alder-willow communities, requiring further evaluation of carbon allocation parameterizations for tall shrubs that are increasingly expanding across tundra landscapes. Our results demonstrate that enhanced representation of vegetation heterogeneity boosts predictive understanding of tundra carbon dynamics, facilitating regional to pan-Arctic model and remote-sensing scaling.

Murphy, Bailey A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

Application-specific optimal model weighting of global climate models: A red tide example

Global climate models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) provide many climate services with environmental relevance. The High Resolution Model Inter-comparison Project (HighResMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides model runs of GCMs and ESMs to address regional phenomena. Developing a parsimonious ensemble of CMIP6 requires multiple ensemble methods such as independent-model subset selection, prescreening-based subset selection, and model weighting. The work presented here focuses on application-specific optimal model weighting, with prescreening-based subset selection. As such, independent ensemble members are categorized, selected, and weighted based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are problem-specific. We discuss the strengths and caveats of optimal model weighting using a case study of red tide prediction in the Gulf of Mexico along the West Florida Shelf. Red tide is a common name of specific harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, causing adverse socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Our results indicate the importance of prescreening-based subset selection as optimal model weighting can underplay robust ensemble members by optimizing error cancellation. Prescreening-based subset selection also provides insights about the validity of the model weights. By illustrating the caveats of using non-representative models when optimal model weighting is used, the findings and discussion of this study are pertinent to many other climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of the Mean State on MJO Simulation in CESM2 Ensemble Simulation

Here we examine the role of the mean state in the propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent (MC). We use an ensemble of simulations made with a single model—the Community Earth System Model version 2—to assess the effect of the mean state that is unaffected by that of model components such as parameterization schemes. Results show that the background meridional moisture gradient is much steeper over the MC region in the periods with a stronger MJO propagation. Column water vapor budget of the MJO strongly suggests that the simulated mean state affects MJO via its impacts on moisture dynamics—a greater advection of mean moisture by MJO wind in the MC region is responsible for the anomalous MJO activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of drought on global food security by 2050

Drought is a major driver of crop production loss, threatening global food security as the population rises toward 9 billion by 2050. Using a process-based crop model within an Earth system model, we assess drought-related impacts on maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production at global and country levels. We then develop a food insecurity index combining drought impacts with socio-economic factors. Our results indicate that by 2050, globally averaged drought losses for combined maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production are <2%, though soybean losses reach 3.6%. Despite these small average changes at the global scale, 62 countries experience maximum production losses over 10%, and 24 countries over 20%. Our index identifies regions at greatest risk, including large parts of South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia. These results illustrate the need for drought adaptation to mitigate future drought impacts on crop production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Spatial Dipole Pattern in Asian Aerosol Changes on East Asian Summer Monsoon

Since China implemented the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2013, the aerosol emissions in East Asia have been greatly reduced, while emissions in South Asia have continued to increase. This has led to a dipole pattern of aerosol emissions between South Asia and East Asia. We report the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) responses to the dipole changes in aerosol emissions during 2013–17 are investigated using the atmosphere model of Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We show that decreases in East Asian emissions alone lead to a positive aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 1.59 (±0.97) W m -2 over central-eastern China (25°–40°N, 105°–122.5°E), along with a 0.09 (±0.07)°C warming in summer during 2013–17. The warming intensified the land–sea thermal contrast and increased the rainfall by 0.32 (±0.16) mm day -1 . When considering both the emission reductions in East Asia and increases in South Asia, the ERF is increased to 3.39 (±0.89) W m -2 , along with an enhanced warming of 0.20 (±0.08)°C over central-eastern China, while the rainfall insignificant decreased by 0.07 (±0.16) mm day -1 . It is due to the westward shift of the strengthened western Pacific subtropical high, linked to the increase in black carbon in South Asia. Based on multiple EASM indices, the reductions in aerosol emissions from East Asia alone increased the EASM strength by almost 5%. Considering the effect of the westward shift of WPSH, the dipole changes in emissions together increased the EASM by 5%–15% during 2013–17, revealing an important role of South Asian aerosols in changing the East Asian climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Spatial Dipole Pattern in Asian Aerosol Changes on East Asian Summer Monsoon

Since China implemented the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2013, the aerosol emissions in East Asia have been greatly reduced, while emissions in South Asia have continued to increase. This has led to a dipole pattern of aerosol emissions between South Asia and East Asia. Here, the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) responses to the dipole changes in aerosol emissions during 2013–17 are investigated using the atmosphere model of Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We show that decreases in East Asian emissions alone lead to a positive aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 1.59 (±0.97) W m -2 over central-eastern China (25°–40°N, 105°–122.5°E), along with a 0.09 (±0.07)°C warming in summer during 2013–17. The warming intensified the land–sea thermal contrast and increased the rainfall by 0.32 (±0.16) mm day -1 . When considering both the emission reductions in East Asia and increases in South Asia, the ERF is increased to 3.39 (±0.89) W m -2 , along with an enhanced warming of 0.20 (±0.08)°C over central-eastern China, while the rainfall insignificant decreased by 0.07 (±0.16) mm day -1 . It is due to the westward shift of the strengthened western Pacific subtropical high, linked to the increase in black carbon in South Asia. Based on multiple EASM indices, the reductions in aerosol emissions from East Asia alone increased the EASM strength by almost 5%. Finally, considering the effect of the westward shift of WPSH, the dipole changes in emissions together increased the EASM by 5%–15% during 2013–17, revealing an important role of South Asian aerosols in changing the East Asian climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Impacts of Land-Cover Change on the Hydrologic Response to Hurricane Ida in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

Abstract The Lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) has experienced significant changes in land cover and is one of the most vulnerable regions to hurricanes in the United States. Here, we study the impacts of land-cover change on the hydrologic response to Hurricane Ida in LMRB. By using an integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model, Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model coupled with the three-dimensional ParFlow subsurface flow model (ELM-ParFlow), we simulate the effects of land-cover change on the flood volume and peak timing induced by rainfall from Hurricane Ida. The results show that land-cover changes from 1850 to 2015, which resulted in a smoother surface and less vegetation, exacerbated both flood peak time and volume induced by Hurricane Ida. The effects of land-cover changes can be decomposed into two mechanisms: a smoother surface routes more water faster to a watershed outlet and less vegetation allows more water to contribute to surface runoff. By comparing scenarios in which the two mechanisms were isolated, we found that changes in soil moisture due to vegetation cover change have more dominant effects on floods in the southern part and changes in Manning’s coefficient have the largest effect on floods in the northern part of the LMRB. The study provides important insights into the complex relationship between land-use, land-cover, and hydrologic processes in coastal regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wood Decomposition: Understanding Processes Regulating Carbon Transfer to Soil Carbon Pools Using FACE Wood at Multiple Scales

Dead wood comprises approximately 20% of forest biomass. While it is widely recognized for its role in ecosystem functions relative to habitat and nutrient cycling, there are considerable uncertainties associated with its role in the forest carbon (C) cycle. The principal uncertainty is whether dead wood contributes to the soil C pool. With little supporting evidence, the presumption is that C in wood is respired back to the atmosphere through decomposition processes. The inability to attribute forest soil C to its source components has been a barrier to addressing this important forest carbon cycle question. The U.S. Dept. of Energy’s Free Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment produced wood that has a distinct δ 13 C signature that can be used to trace its fate through organic matter decomposition processes. Using two hardwood species (aspen, birch) from the Rhinelander FACE site and pine from the Duke FACE site, the FACE Wood Decomposition Experiment (FWDE) was established in 2011 to provide the foundation for addressing wood decomposition and its associated processes at the continental scale. Plots were installed on nine experimental forests representing a range in bioclimatic forest conditions within the continental U.S. Each identical plot has logs of the three species incubating on the soil surface and pine logs suspended in the air, representing standing dead wood. Abiotic conditions are monitored continuously, and soil and forest conditions characterized. Logs on the sites have been measured every two years to assess decay. This project was initiated in 2016 with specific objectives to: (a) determine whether dead wood C contributes to the soil C pool, (b) assess the fungal community composition mediating the decay, (c) assess the interactions of termites with microbial decay, and (d) develop a mechanistic model to simulate wood decomposition. The principal field sampling was conducted in 2017; correspondingly, the results reported here represent six years of decomposition. Wood decomposition varied from 13 to 75 % loss across the bioclimatic gradient. Sites in the southeastern U.S. coastal plain and piedmont had fastest decomposition rates for each of the species. In contrast sites in the Rocky Mountains had the slowest decay rates, which were associated with cold temperatures. Standing deadwood decomposes at a much slower rate than logs on the soil surface; a response due to differences in wood moisture content. Wood carbon was measured in the mineral soil across each of the sites; accordingly, this is the first study to affirm that a portion of the wood C does become part of the soil C pool. Averaged across the FWDE sites, approximately 1.4% of the soil C in the upper 10 cm of the mineral soil directly beneath the log was derived from the deadwood; within 50 cm of the log, wood C accounted for an average of 2.1%. These results demonstrate that the contribution of deadwood to the soil C pool is a soil volume surrounding the log; and it’s likely a larger volume than what we sampled. We also hypothesized that there would be more wood C in the mineral soil when termites were present. However, that hypothesis wasn’t supported by measurements on the Santee Experimental Forest termite exclusion (SEF-TX) plots under FACE logs that incubated for 6 years. Across all the sites, the majority of the wood C was transferred to the atmosphere. Approximately 7,000 fungal species were sequenced. The fungal communities were different among each of the sites suggesting local colonization; interestingly, within sites the three species also exhibited differences in fungal community composition. White rot was the dominant fungal form in pine and hardwood, which yields less lignin in the wood residue. Brown rot occurred in approximately 20% of the pine and aspen logs, and it did not occur in birch logs. The occurrence of brown rot was only weakly correlated to site factors. We conducted two additional experiments to assess the effects of termites on wood decomposition and the associated interactions with the fungal community. Pine and birch logs were incubated on the Santee Experimental Forest termite exclusion plots in upland and riparian settings. There was no difference in decay between areas where termites were able colonize and plots where they had been excluded. Highly variable foraging by termites was a primary contributor the result. Correspondingly, fungal communities did not vary on logs incubated among the two treatments, but they did reflect site and species differences. The second experiment was conducted on each of the nine FWDE sites where pine and birch wood blocks were incubated for two years with and without a wrapping designed to exclude termites and other arthropods. The effects of termites on wood decomposition could be confirmed on two of the four sites known to have subterranean termites. On the two southeastern sites, termites contributed approximately 8% to mass loss in pine blocks over two years. A major factor clouding the role of termites in wood decomposition is the inability to assess the time, duration, and intensity of the foraging with the logs. Another uncertainty is related to whether a piece of wood will be foraged. A process-based wood decomposition model was developed representing biological processes mediated by fungi, bacteria, termites, beetles, as well as physical and chemical processes. The Coarse Wood Decomposition Model (CWDM) was parameterized based on a thorough review of the literature and it was validated using data from the FWDE. In the initial setup, the model considers softwoods and hardwoods groups, as opposed to individual species. Sensitivity analyses incorporating climate data from 89 locations in North America demonstrated that CWDM was stable from the tropics to the boreal zone. Model calibration and validation showed it to perform very well. The CWDM is poised for additional testing with subsequent FWDE data as well as other data sets, and it is available for incorporation into forest biogeochemical models or DOEs Earth System Modeling framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Arctic Ocean Hydroacoustics

As the Arctic warms and loses its perennial ice cover, it is becoming more attractive for a variety of human uses. Hydroacoustic monitoring of this activity will grow in importance over the coming years and decades. Changes to the physical environment affect acoustic propagation and noise, with ramifications for our ability to detect and locate events and activities of interest. In this report, we use two long-term data sets from the Beaufort Sea, western Arctic Ocean, to determine how acoustic propagation conditions and seismic source detections are impacted by the changing environment: 1) oceanographic observations from ice-tethered profilers, and 2) passive acoustic recordings from a hydrophone. We find that changes to Beaufort Sea thermohaline stratification is stabilizing a subsurface duct, leading to more focused acoustic energy arrivals. Detections of catalogued submarine earthquakes show geographic differences in signal strength between seismic and acoustic waves. Signal strength increases with earthquake magnitude, but relationships to other source and path factors are less clear. Ambient noise also has clear seasonal patterns in the Arctic, with relatively low noise in the spring, higher noise near 1 Hz in summer, and higher noise near 10 Hz in winter. Climate change is expected to modify these seasonal noise patterns, impacting event detection. Future work will further investigate the mechanisms of ice effects on sound and couple acoustic modeling to an Earth System Model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SNICAR-ADv4: a physically based radiative transfer model to represent the spectral albedo of glacier ice

Abstract. Accurate modeling of cryospheric surface albedo is essential for our understanding of climate change as snow and ice surfaces regulate the global radiative budget and sea-level through their albedo and mass balance. Although significant progress has been made using physical principles to represent the dynamic albedo of snow, models of glacier ice albedo tend to be heavily parameterized and not explicitly connected with physical properties that govern albedo, such as the number and size of air bubbles, specific surface area (SSA), presence of abiotic and biotic light absorbing constituents (LACs), and characteristics of any overlying snow. Here, we introduce SNICAR-ADv4, an extension of the multi-layer two-stream delta-Eddington radiative transfer model with the adding–doubling solver that has been previously applied to represent snow and sea-ice spectral albedo. SNICAR-ADv4 treats spectrally resolved Fresnel reflectance and transmittance between overlying snow and higher-density glacier ice, scattering by air bubbles of varying sizes, and numerous types of LACs. SNICAR-ADv4 simulates a wide range of clean snow and ice broadband albedo (BBA), ranging from 0.88 for (30 µm) fine-grain snow to 0.03 for bare and bubble-free ice under direct light. Our results indicate that representing ice with a density of 650 kg m−3 as snow with no refractive Fresnel layer, as done previously, generally overestimates the BBA by an average of 0.058. However, because most naturally occurring ice surfaces are roughened “white ice”, we recommend modeling a thin snow layer over bare ice simulations. We find optimal agreement with measurements by representing cryospheric media with densities less than 650 kg m−3 as snow and larger-density media as bubbly ice with a Fresnel layer. SNICAR-ADv4 also simulates the non-linear albedo impacts from LACs with changing ice SSA, with peak impact per unit mass of LACs near SSAs of 0.1–0.01 m2 kg−1. For bare, bubble-free ice, LACs actually increase the albedo. SNICAR-ADv4 represents smooth transitions between snow, firn, and ice surfaces and accurately reproduces measured spectral albedos of a variety of glacier surfaces. This work paves the way for adapting SNICAR-ADv4 to be used in land ice model components of Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part II: Statistical Downscaling

Abstract Capacity factors (CFs) derived from daily expected power at 22 operating wind farms in different regions of North America are used as predictands to train statistical downscaling algorithms using output from ERA5. The statistical downscaling models are then used to make CF projections for a suite of CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). Downscaling is performed using a hybrid statistical approach that employs synoptic types derived using k -means clustering applied to sea level pressure fields with variance corrections applied as a function of the pressure gradient intensity. ESMs exhibit marked variability in terms of the skill with which the frequency of synoptic types and pressure gradients are reproduced relative to ERA5, and that differential skill is used to infer differential credibility in the associated CF projections. Projections of median annual mean CF [P50(CF)] in each 20-yr period from 1980 to 2099 show evidence of declines at most wind farms except in parts of the southern Great Plains, although the magnitude of the changes is strongly dependent on the ESM. For example, P50(CF) in 2080–99 deviate from those in 1980–99 by from −3.1 to +0.2 percentage points in the Northeast. The largest-magnitude declines in P50(CF) ranging from −3.9 to −2 percentage points are projected for the southern West Coast. CF trends exhibit marked seasonality and are strongly linked to changes in the relative intensity of future synoptic patterns, with much less impact from shifts in the occurrence of synoptic types over time. Internal climate modes continue to play a significant role in inducing interannual variability in wind power production, even under high radiative forcing scenarios. Significance Statement We describe how future climate changes may affect wind resources and wind power generation. Near-term changes in projected wind power electricity generation potential at operating wind farms over North America are small, but by the end of the current century electricity production is projected to decrease in many areas but may increase in parts of the southern Great Plains. The amount of change in projected wind power production is a strong function of the Earth system model that is downscaled and also depends on the continued presence of internally forced climate variability. An additional dependence on the amount of greenhouse gas–induced global warming indicates the transition of the energy sector to low-carbon sources may assist in maintaining the abundant U.S. wind resource.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Examining the Ice-Nucleating Particles from the North Slope of Alaska (ExINP-NSA) (Final Campaign Report)

The Examining the Ice-Nucleating Particles from the North Slope of Alaska (ExINP-NSA) campaign was conducted at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (71.3230° N, 156.6114° W, “BRW” hereafter), next to the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility NSA site and ~ 6 km northeast of the town of Utqiaġvik. The location of the NSA site is shown in Figure 1. Our observing period began in October 2021 and continued until May 2024. This campaign was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Early Career Research Program through grant number DE-SC001879. This grant contains funding for three ARM field campaigns. The previous field campaigns were performed at ARM’s Southern Great Plains atmospheric observatory in Oklahoma (SGP; 36.6073° N, 97.4876° W) and the ARM’s Eastern North Atlantic atmospheric observatory on Graciosa Island, Azores (ENA; 39.0916° N, 28.0257° W). The ExINP-NSA campaign aims included: • Determining the number concentration of ice-nucleating particles (n INPs ) active at temperatures spanning the range of heterogeneous freezing processes (from ≈−30 °C to 0 °C) using a combination of online and offline measurements, • Determining whether local meteorological conditions and/or synoptic scale air mass transport impact INP abundance and/or ice nucleation efficiency, • Examining if the physicochemical properties of INPs relate to aerosol chemistry, and • Assessing if there is a similarity in INP properties across three ARM sites Multi-seasonal datasets of INP abundance in the NSA region were delivered from this campaign. This campaign also allowed researchers to perform a comprehensive analysis of atmospheric INPs based on long- term ground-based measurements in the Alaskan Arctic. Our data and results from the ExINP-NSA campaign will help refine current earth system models. One of the stated goals of ARM is to advance aerosol-cloud ice interaction, which will be a direct result of this campaign. Current earth system models poorly represent INPs, and the 15-minute time resolution data over several seasons generated during this campaign will provide an invaluable resource, especially combined with the datasets generated during two previous ARM ExINP campaigns. These datasets will allow for a greater understanding of ice nucleation processes as they may (or may not) relate to local meteorological processes and aerosol chemistry and will eventually help further the understanding of the Earth’s atmospheric processes and energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CMIP7 Data Request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data unlocking key research avenues in atmospheric science and provides justification for the resources needed to produce this data. Topics within the CMIP7 Atmosphere Theme centre around processes and feedbacks in atmospheric science such as clouds, aerosols and atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric circulation, temperature variability and extremes, radiative forcings, and Earth system model evaluation. These topics are summarised in this paper as scientific “opportunities” which will be realised through CMIP7 experiments and Earth system model outputs. These opportunities were submitted by a thematic group of atmospheric science community representatives combined with an extended consultation process. The production of these variables will close key gaps and uncertainties identified during previous rounds of CMIP, and will be broadly used by scientific, policy, governmental, industry, and other communities that rely on climate model projections for research and decision making, including supporting the 7th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR7). As an author group, we also reflect on the process used to collate this data request and make recommendations to future CMIP governance on implementing a consultation on this scale in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗