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Solidified Organics Testing

The Radiochemical Engineering Development Center currently has plutonium-containing liquid organic waste that must be solidified before final disposal as solid debris waste. The documented safety analysis for the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center limits the amount of plutonium that can be released from solid debris waste forms during a fire scenario, which is less than 10 -4 airborne release fraction. Experimental results for plutonium release fractions from burning various materials has been compiled by the Department of Energy [DOE, 1994]. Combustion of organic liquids gave an average airborne release fraction of 6 × 10 -3 and combustion of surface-contaminated solids (paper, plastic, etc.) gave an average airborne release fraction of 5 × 10 -4 . Burning of 30% tri- n -butyl phosphate (TBP) in kerosene gave cerium release fractions of 5.6–7.7 × 10 -3 [Mishima and Schwendiman, 1973]. Earlier testing had evaluated many different grout-based formulations to solidify plutonium-containing organic waste liquids, and the ones used in these tests were shown to produce monolithic, fairly homogeneous solids. Each of the waste forms tested would meet the waste acceptance criteria for disposal at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant as transuranic waste, but there were questions about whether they would meet the plutonium release criteria during a fire. The purpose of the work described here was to quantify the airborne release fraction for cerium, as a surrogate for plutonium, in these proposed waste forms. Cerium is often used as a simulant for plutonium in bench-scale testing, and cerium nitrate hexahydrate [Ce (NO 3 ) 3 ·6H 2 O] was added to the organic solutions that were solidified to prepare the surrogate waste forms for these tests. The waste forms were subjected to the designated fire scenario of 600ºC for 1 hour, and any cerium in the off-gas was trapped using a quartz filter followed by a scrubber containing 0.1 M NaOH, which is the same as used by Mishima and Schwendiman, [1973].

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Application of Satellite and Ground-based Data to Investigate the UV Radiative Effects of Australian Aerosols

An understanding of the effect of aerosols on biologically- and photochemically-active UV radiation reaching the Earth's surface is important for many ongoing climate, biophysical, and air pollution studies. In particular, estimates of the UV characteristics of the most common Australian aerosols will be valuable inputs to UV Index forecasts, air quality studies, and assessments of the impact of regional environmental changes. By analyzing climatological distributions of Australian aerosols we have identified sites where co-located ground-based UV-B and ozone measurements were available during episodes of relatively high aerosol activity. Since at least June 2003, surface UV global irradiance spectra (285-450 nm) have been measured routinely at Darwin and Alice Springs in Australia by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). Using colocated sunphotometer measurements at Darwin and Alice Springs, we identified several episodes of relatively high aerosol activity. Aerosol air mass types were analyzed from sunphotometer-derived angstrom parameter, MODIS fire maps and MISR aerosol property retrievals. To assess aerosol effects we compared the measured UV irradiances for aerosol-loaded and clear-sky conditions with each other and with irradiances simulated using the libRadtran radiative transfer model for aerosol-free conditions. We found that for otherwise similar atmospheric conditions, smoke aerosols over Darwin reduced the surface UV irradiance by as much as 40-50% at 290-300 nm and 20-25% at 320-400 nm near active fires (aerosol optical depth, AOD, at 500 nm approximately equal to 0.6). Downwind of fires, the smoke aerosols over Darwin reduced the surface irradiance by 15-25% at 290-300 nm and approximately 10% at 320-350 nm (AOD at 500 nm approximately equal to 0.2). The effect of smoke increased with decrease of wavel strongest in the UV-B. The aerosol attenuation factors calculated for the selected cases suggest smoke over Darwin has an effect on surface 340-380 nm irradiances that is comparable to that produced by smoke over Sub-Saharan Africa. Dust activity was very low at Alice Springs during 2004, therefore we were not able to identify strong dust events to fully assess the UVeffect of dust. For the cases studied, smoke aerosols seem to produce a stronger reduction in surface UV irradiances than dust aerosols.

UV surface irradiances↗

Extension of a Kinetic Approach to Chemical Reactions to Electronic Energy Levels and Reactions Involving Charged Species With Application to DSMC Simulations

The ability to compute rarefied, ionized hypersonic flows is becoming more important as missions such as Earth reentry, landing high mass payloads on Mars, and the exploration of the outer planets and their satellites are being considered. Recently introduced molecular-level chemistry models that predict equilibrium and nonequilibrium reaction rates using only kinetic theory and fundamental molecular properties are extended in the current work to include electronic energy level transitions and reactions involving charged particles. These extensions are shown to agree favorably with reported transition and reaction rates from the literature for nearequilibrium conditions. Also, the extensions are applied to the second flight of the Project FIRE flight experiment at 1634 seconds with a Knudsen number of 0.001 at an altitude of 76.4 km. In order to accomplish this, NASA's direct simulation Monte Carlo code DAC was rewritten to include the ability to simulate charge-neutral ionized flows, take advantage of the recently introduced chemistry model, and to include the extensions presented in this work. The 1634 second data point was chosen for comparisons to be made in order to include a CFD solution. The Knudsen number at this point in time is such that the DSMC simulations are still tractable and the CFD computations are at the edge of what is considered valid because, although near-transitional, the flow is still considered to be continuum. It is shown that the inclusion of electronic energy levels in the DSMC simulation is necessary for flows of this nature and is required for comparison to the CFD solution. The flow field solutions are also post-processed by the nonequilibrium radiation code HARA to compute the radiative portion of the heating and is then compared to the total heating measured in flight.

Liechty, Derek S.↗

A Simulator for Neyer Tests of Explosives

Explosives and explosive devices such as detonators are typically tested by applying a range of stimuli such as voltage or mechanical shock, and recording binary “detonated/did not detonate” responses. These are analyzed using maximum likelihood or generalized linear models to provide estimates of quantities such as the all-fire and no-fire points. Given that the true threshold for detonation is unknown a priori , sequential design methods are typically used to optimize the set of test points. One popular method, implemented in commercial software, is Neyer’s algorithm. To support simulation and experimental design, we have developed code in the R programming language to duplicate the functions of the Neyer software. We provide code for the simulator along with a description and examples of usage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Extension of a Kinetic Approach to Chemical Reactions to Electronic Energy Levels and Reactions Involving Charged Species with Application to DSMC Simulations

The ability to compute rarefied, ionized hypersonic flows is becoming more important as missions such as Earth reentry, landing high mass payloads on Mars, and the exploration of the outer planets and their satellites are being considered. Recently introduced molecular-level chemistry models that predict equilibrium and nonequilibrium reaction rates using only kinetic theory and fundamental molecular properties are extended in the current work to include electronic energy level transitions and reactions involving charged particles. These extensions are shown to agree favorably with reported transition and reaction rates from the literature for near-equilibrium conditions. Also, the extensions are applied to the second flight of the Project FIRE flight experiment at 1634 seconds with a Knudsen number of 0.001 at an altitude of 76.4 km. In order to accomplish this, NASA's direct simulation Monte Carlo code DAC was rewritten to include the ability to simulate charge-neutral ionized flows, take advantage of the recently introduced chemistry model, and to include the extensions presented in this work. The 1634 second data point was chosen for comparisons to be made in order to include a CFD solution. The Knudsen number at this point in time is such that the DSMC simulations are still tractable and the CFD computations are at the edge of what is considered valid because, although near-transitional, the flow is still considered to be continuum. It is shown that the inclusion of electronic energy levels in the DSMC simulation is necessary for flows of this nature and is required for comparison to the CFD solution. The flow field solutions are also post-processed by the nonequilibrium radiation code HARA to compute the radiative portion.

Liechty, Derek S.↗

Transient Efficiency, Flexibility, and Reliability Optimization of Coal-Fired Power Plants - Final Report

This program developed an advanced model-based monitoring and model-predictive control algorithms for a coal fired power plant (CFPP), and deployed these algorithms in a real-time platform to demonstrate performance benefits for transient flexibility and plant operation efficiency. More specifically, the objectives were successfully achieved through a combination of (i) developing a high-fidelity transient plant model in Apros, which was used as a high-fidelity plant simulation between $100-50\% TMCR$ where TMCR denotes the turbine maximum continuous rating, i.e., baseload, (ii) developing a very fast physics-based reduced-order model (ROM) of the plant, which ran more than $100\times$ faster than real-time, enabling its use as real-time embedded model for model-based estimation (MBE) and model predictive control (MPC) (iii) implementing a real-time MBE based on ROM using a robust unscented Kalman filter (UKF) to continuously tune the ROM to match the measurements from high-fidelity Apros plant model despite significant plant-model mismatch, and thus, obtain a Digital Twin of the plant (iv) designing and implementing a real-time MPC with dual objectives of transient plant load tracking with high ramp rates and minimizing coal consumption, i.e., improving plant efficiency in the baseload-partload operation range of $100-50\% TMCR$. Each key element above was developed and tested individually, and has been reported in corresponding Topical Reports. Finally, all the individual elements were integrated in an overall closed-loop system, that was successfully tested in desktop Simulink test harness simulations with ROM or high-fidelity model as the plant. Thereafter, the Simulink implementation was used to auto-generate C-code and deploy as real-time Docker microservice containers in Linux, and validate that they can run in real-time in the hardware-in-the loop (HIL) setup and produce the same results as in Simulink. The results of the integrated simulation tests in Simulink as well as the real-time HIL deployment are documented in this final report, showing good load tracking for load ramps at $3-4\%/min$ ramp rates, and achieving up to $5.5\%$ reduction in coal relative to baseline operation at $50\% TMCR$ load. The desktop and HIL simulations show successful performance of the overall model based estimation and control solution and achieve the key objectives of the program for flexible, efficient and reliable operation of subcritical coal fired power plants.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Sensitivity of Regional WRF‐Chem Air Quality and Weather Simulations to Biomass‐Burning Emission Data Sets: A Case Study of the Impact of Canadian Wildfire on the US°

This study focuses on the period from June 26 to 29, 2023, when record‐breaking Canadian wildfires severely impacted air quality in the Midwest United States. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) and four biomass‐burning data sets (Fire Inventory from NCAR version 1, Fire Inventory from NCAR version 2.5, Quick Fire Emissions Data set [QFED], and Regional ABI‐VIIRS Emission), we analyzed aerosol transport from Canada to the US and assessed the model's accuracy in predicting PM 2.5 , O 3 , CO and aerosol weather feedback. Model simulations were compared with ground‐based and remote sensing observations as well as field measurements from the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) project. Our findings show that the movement of a low‐pressure system from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic, combined with the high‐pressure system over the Atlantic, caused the transport of aerosols from Canadian wildfires to the US. Results show WRF‐Chem significantly underestimated key atmospheric components: aerosol optical depth (AOD) by over 50%, PM 2.5 by 65%–90% and peak O 3 concentrations by 50%–55% across four biomass burning data sets. Additionally, CO and NO 2 concentrations were underpredicted. The substantial underestimation of PM 2.5 led to an overestimation of temperature by up to 3.6 °C primarily due to excessive downward shortwave radiation, which resulted from the underestimation of direct aerosol effects and an increase in sensible heat flux. Among the biomass‐burning data sets, QFED produced the most accurate AOD and PM 2.5 predictions due to improved wildfire emission estimates, leading to a 1.0 to 1.5 °C reduction in temperature overestimation during the daytime. These findings underscore the need for improving wildfire emission estimates for trace gases and aerosols to enhance air quality and weather feedback predictions.

WRF-chem model↗

Rainbow net analysis of VAXcluster system availability

A system modeling technique, Rainbow Nets, is used to evaluate the availability and mean-time-to-interrupt of the VAXcluster. These results are compared to the exact analytic results showing that reasonable accuracy is achieved through simulation. The complexity of the Rainbow Net does not increase as the number of processors increases, but remains constant, unlike a Markov model which expands exponentially. The constancy is achieved by using tokens with identity attributes (items) that can have additional attributes associated with them (features) which can exist in multiple states. The time to perform the simulation increases, but this is a polynomial increase rather than exponential. There is no restriction on distributions used for transition firing times, allowing real situations to be modeled more accurately by choosing the distribution which best fits the system performance and eliminating the need for simplifying assumptions.

Johnson, Allen M., Jr.↗

Reactive Nitrogen Distribution and Partitioning in the North American Troposphere and Lowermost Stratosphere

A comprehensive group of reactive nitrogen species (NO, NOz, HN03, HOzN02, PANs, alkyl nitrates, and aerosol-NO3) were measured over North America during July/August 2004 from the NASA DC-8 platform (0.1 - 12 km). Nitrogen containing tracers of biomass combustion (HCN and CH3CN) were also measured along with a host of other gaseous (CO, VOC, OVOC, halocarbon) and aerosol tracers. Clean background air as well as air with influences from biogenic emissions, anthropogenic pollution, biomass combustion, convection, lightning, and the stratosphere was sampled over the continental United States, the Atlantic, and the Pacific. The North American upper troposphere (UT) was found to be greatly influenced by both lightning NO, and surface pollution lofted via convection and contained elevated concentrations of PAN, ozone, hydrocarbons, and NO,. Observational data suggest that lightning was a far greater contributor to NO, in the UT than previously believed. PAN provided a dominant reservoir of reactive nitrogen in the UT while nitric acid dominated in the lower troposphere (LT). Peroxynitric acid (H02N02) was present in sizable concentrations peaking at around 8 km. Aerosol nitrate appeared to be mostly contained in large soil based particles in the LT. Plumes from Alaskan fires contained large amounts of PAN and aerosol nitrate but little enhancement in ozone. A comparison of observed data with simulations from four 3-D models shows significant differences between observations and models as well as among models. We investigate the partitioning and interplay of the reactive nitrogen species within characteristic air masses and further examine their role in ozone formation.

Singh, H. B.↗

Space Launch System Base Heating Test: Environments and Base Flow Physics

The NASA Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle is composed of four RS-25 liquid oxygen-hydrogen rocket engines in the core-stage and two 5-segment solid rocket boosters and as a result six hot supersonic plumes interact within the aft section of the vehicle during flight. Due to the complex nature of rocket plume-induced flows within the launch vehicle base during ascent and a new vehicle configuration, sub-scale wind tunnel testing is required to reduce SLS base convective environment uncertainty and design risk levels. This hot-fire test program was conducted at the CUBRC Large Energy National Shock (LENS) II short-duration test facility to simulate flight from altitudes of 50 kft to 210 kft. The test program is a challenging and innovative effort that has not been attempted in 40+ years for a NASA vehicle. This paper discusses the various trends of base convective heat flux and pressure as a function of altitude at various locations within the core-stage and booster base regions of the two-percent SLS wind tunnel model. In-depth understanding of the base flow physics is presented using the test data, infrared high-speed imaging and theory. The normalized test design environments are compared to various NASA semi-empirical numerical models to determine exceedance and conservatism of the flight scaled test-derived base design environments. Brief discussion of thermal impact to the launch vehicle base components is also presented.

Mehta, Manish↗

Sensor Fault Detection in Smart Extraterrestrial Habitats Using Unsupervised Learning

Various types of sensors are needed to monitor the health state of smart deep-space habitats. However, measured data can be affected by sensor faults, which influence the health management system and consequently the decision-making. In this paper, an unsupervised learning approach based on convolutional autoencoders (CAEs) is developed to detect anomalies in temperature and pressure sensors. The proposed method is systematically investigated using a habitat simulator (HabSim). Several illustrative examples are demonstrated in the nominal and hazardous states of the habitat, including micrometeorite impact and fire scenarios. The performance of the proposed method using CAEs is compared with that of existing methods using auto-associative neural networks (AANNs) and variational autoencoders. This comparison is based on typical evaluation metrics, including precision, recall, F1 score, training time, and testing time. The effect of temperature–pressure coupling on the detection performance of CAEs and AANNs is explored by training different data-driven models, including one with temperature sensors, one with pressure sensors, and one with both temperature and pressure sensors. The effect of the number of faulty sensors on the performance of CAEs is studied, as with an increase in the number of faulty sensors, redundant information among the sensors is reduced. The capability of CAEs to change the number of sensors without redesigning the network architecture and retraining the neural network is investigated and demonstrated. The capabilities and limitations of the proposed solution are discussed.

Zixin Wang↗

Statistical Treatment of Earth Observing System Pyroshock Separation Test Data

The Earth Observing System (EOS) AM-1 spacecraft for NASA's Mission to Planet Earth is scheduled to be launched on an Atlas IIAS vehicle in June of 1998. One concern is that the instruments on the EOS spacecraft are sensitive to the shock-induced vibration produced when the spacecraft separates from the launch vehicle. By employing unique statistical analysis to the available ground test shock data, the NASA Lewis Research Center found that shock-induced vibrations would not be as great as the previously specified levels of Lockheed Martin. The EOS pyroshock separation testing, which was completed in 1997, produced a large quantity of accelerometer data to characterize the shock response levels at the launch vehicle/spacecraft interface. Thirteen pyroshock separation firings of the EOS and payload adapter configuration yielded 78 total measurements at the interface. The multiple firings were necessary to qualify the newly developed Lockheed Martin six-hardpoint separation system. Because of the unusually large amount of data acquired, Lewis developed a statistical methodology to predict the maximum expected shock levels at the interface between the EOS spacecraft and the launch vehicle. Then, this methodology, which is based on six shear plate accelerometer measurements per test firing at the spacecraft/launch vehicle interface, was used to determine the shock endurance specification for EOS. Each pyroshock separation test of the EOS spacecraft simulator produced its own set of interface accelerometer data. Probability distributions, histograms, the median, and higher order moments (skew and kurtosis) were analyzed. The data were found to be lognormally distributed, which is consistent with NASA pyroshock standards. Each set of lognormally transformed test data produced was analyzed to determine if the data should be combined statistically. Statistical testing of the data's standard deviations and means (F and t testing, respectively) determined if data sets were significantly different at a 95-percent confidence level. If two data sets were found to be significantly different, these families of data were not combined for statistical purposes. This methodology produced three separate statistical data families of shear plate data. For each population, a P99.1/50 (probability/confidence) per-separation-nut firing level was calculated. By using the binomial distribution, Lewis researchers determined that this pernut firing level was equivalent to a P95/50 per-flight confidence level. The overall envelope of the per-flight P95/50 levels led to Lewis' recommended EOS interface shock endurance specification. A similar methodology was used to develop Lewis' recommended EOS mission assurance levels. The available test data for the EOS mission are significantly larger than for a normal mission, thus increasing the confidence level in the calculated expected shock environment. Lewis significantly affected the EOS mission by properly employing statistical analysis to the data. This analysis prevented a costly requalification of the spacecraft's instruments, which otherwise would have been exposed to significantly higher test levels.

McNelis, Anne M.↗

Cloud spatial structure during the FIRE MS IFO

The fractal properties of clouds observed during the FIRE Marine Stratocumulus Intensive Field Observations (MS IFO) and their effects on the large scale radiative properties of the atmosphere are examined. This involves three states: (1) analysis of LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) cloud data to determine the scaling properties associated with various cloud types; (2) simulation of fractal clouds with realistic scaling properties; and (3) computation of mean radiative properties of fractal clouds as a function of their scaling properties. Thirty-three LANDSAT scenes were acquired as part of the FIRE Marine Stratocumulus IFO in July 1987. They exhibit a wide variety of stratocumulus structures. Analysis has so far focused upon the July 7 scene, in which the NASA ER-2, the BMO C130 and the NCAR Electra repeatedly gathered data across a stratocumulus-fair weather cumulus transition.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

Scalable Cloning on Large-Scale GPU Platforms with Application to Time-Stepped Simulations on Grids

Cloning is a technique to efficiently simulate a tree of multiple what-if scenarios that are unraveled during the course of a base simulation. However, cloned execution is highly challenging to realize on large, distributed memory computing platforms, due to the dynamic nature of the computational load across clones, and due to the complex dependencies spanning the clone tree. In this paper, we present the conceptual simulation framework, algorithmic foundations, and runtime interface of CloneX, a new system we designed for scalable simulation cloning. It efficiently and dynamically creates whole logical copies of a dynamic tree of simulations across a large parallel system without full physical duplication of computation and memory. The performance of a prototype implementation executed on up to 1,024 graphical processing units of a supercomputing system has been evaluated with three benchmarks—heat diffusion, forest fire, and disease propagation models—delivering a speed up of over two orders of magnitude compared to replicated runs. Finally, the results demonstrate a significantly faster and scalable way to execute many what-if scenario ensembles of large simulations via cloning using the CloneX interface.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward

Earth system models must predict forest responses to global change in order to simulate future global climate, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics. These models are increasingly adopting vegetation demographic approaches that explicitly represent tree growth, mortality, and recruitment, enabling advances in the projection of forest vulnerability and resilience, as well as evaluation with field data. To date, simulation of regeneration processes has received far less attention than simulation of processes that affect growth and mortality, in spite of their critical role maintaining forest structure, facilitating turnover in forest composition over space and time, enabling recovery from disturbance, and regulating climate-driven range shifts. Here, our critical review of regeneration process representations within current Earth system vegetation demographic models reveals the need to improve parameter values and algorithms for reproductive allocation, dispersal, seed survival and germination, environmental filtering in the seedling layer, and tree regeneration strategies adapted to wind, fire, and anthropogenic disturbance regimes. These improvements require synthesis of existing data, specific field data-collection protocols, and novel model algorithms compatible with global-scale simulations. Vegetation demographic models offer the opportunity to more fully integrate ecological understanding into Earth system prediction; regeneration processes need to be a critical part of the effort.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transient Efficiency, Flexibility, and Reliability Optimization of Coal-Fired Power Plants - Final Program Review

This program developed an advanced model-based monitoring and model-predictive control algorithms for a coal fired power plant (CFPP), and deployed these algorithms in a real-time platform to demonstrate performance benefits for transient flexibility and plant operation efficiency. More specifically, the objectives were successfully achieved through a combination of (i) developing a high-fidelity transient plant model in Apros, which was used as a high-fidelity plant simulation between $100-50\% TMCR$ where TMCR denotes the turbine maximum continuous rating, i.e., baseload, (ii) developing a very fast physics-based reduced-order model (ROM) of the plant, which ran more than $100\times$ faster than real-time, enabling its use as real-time embedded model for model-based estimation (MBE) and model predictive control (MPC) (iii) implementing a real-time MBE based on ROM using a robust unscented Kalman filter (UKF) to continuously tune the ROM to match the measurements from high-fidelity Apros plant model despite significant plant-model mismatch, and thus, obtain a Digital Twin of the plant (iv) designing and implementing a real-time MPC with dual objectives of transient plant load tracking with high ramp rates and minimizing coal consumption, i.e., improving plant efficiency in the baseload-partload operation range of $100-50\% TMCR$. Each key element above was developed and tested individually, and has been reported in corresponding Topical Reports. Finally, all the individual elements were integrated in an overall closed-loop system, that was successfully tested in desktop Simulink test harness simulations with ROM or high-fidelity model as the plant. Thereafter, the Simulink implementation was used to auto-generate C-code and deploy as real-time Docker microservice containers in Linux, and validate that they can run in real-time in the hardware-in-the loop (HIL) setup and produce the same results as in Simulink. The results of the integrated simulation tests in Simulink as well as the real-time HIL deployment are documented in this final report, showing good load tracking for load ramps at $3-4\%/min$ ramp rates, and achieving up to $5.5\%$ reduction in coal relative to baseline operation at $50\% TMCR$ load. The desktop and HIL simulations show successful performance of the overall model based estimation and control solution and achieve the key objectives of the program for flexible, efficient and reliable operation of sub-critical coal fired power plants.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Refined Use of Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Snapshots to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions in the GOCART Model

Simulations of biomass burning (BB) emissions in global chemistry and aerosol transport models depend on external inventories, which provide location and strength of burning aerosol sources. Our previous work (Petrenko et al., 2012) shows that satellite snapshots of aerosol optical depth (AOD) near the emitted smoke plume can be used to constrain model-simulated AOD, and effectively, the assumed source strength. We now refine the satellite-snapshot method and investigate applying simple multiplicative emission correction factors for the widely used Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFEDv3) emission inventory can achieve regional-scale consistency between MODIS AOD snapshots and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The model and satellite AOD are compared over a set of more than 900 BB cases observed by the MODIS instrument during the 2004, and 2006-2008 biomass burning seasons. The AOD comparison presented here shows that regional discrepancies between the model and satellite are diverse around the globe yet quite consistent within most ecosystems. Additional analysis of including small fire emission correction shows the complimentary nature of correcting for source strength and adding missing sources, and also indicates that in some regions other factors may be significant in explaining model-satellite discrepancies. This work sets the stage for a larger intercomparison within the Aerosol Inter-comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) multi-model biomass burning experiment. We discuss here some of the other possible factors affecting the remaining discrepancies between model simulations and observations, but await comparisons with other AeroCom models to draw further conclusions.

aerosol optical depth↗

Accelerated Carbon and Water Cycles in the Amazon and Congo Basins Revealed From TRENDY Models and Remote Sensing Products

Tropical forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle and land–atmosphere interactions. Estimating tropical forest carbon–water dynamics is challenging due to observational and modeling uncertainties. This study leverages the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project models and satellite observations to assess changes (2003–2021) in vegetation carbon, gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and net biosphere production (NBP) in the Amazon and Congo. Atmospheric CO 2 , climate variability, and land use and land cover changes constrain these variables between 1700 and 2021 with the overall increasing trends of carbon stock and fluxes. The models overestimate vegetation carbon and GPP, while ET and NBP are consistent with observations. Fire-activated models predict lower values for vegetation carbon and GPP, ET, and NBP, aligning more closely with observations. The higher ET from fire-activated models may result from enhanced soil evaporation due to increased canopy openings. Fire-inactivated models could well estimate the magnitudes of NBP. The high vegetation carbon in nitrogen-enabled models points to simulation uncertainties and imbalance in model numbers regarding the nitrogen cycle. Although the nitrogen cycle enhances water use efficiency in both the Amazon and Congo, the models show a higher sensitivity to the nitrogen cycle in the Congo. This study highlights the challenges in accurately representing tropical biogeochemical cycles and the values of satellite products in model evaluations, underscoring the need for standard modeling protocols that address biogeochemical components (e.g., nutrient cycles) to better resolve process-based representations.

Shi, Mingjie [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗