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Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate-vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human-induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business-as-usual (continuously rising) CO 2 emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire-driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO 2 mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Southeast Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB) Phase III Anthropogenic Test at Citronelle Field, Mobile Co., AL: Project Assessment Report

The Southeast Carbon Sequestration Partnership Phase III Anthropogenic Test at Citronelle Field is the United States’ largest CO 2 capture and transportation, injection, storage and monitoring project using CO 2 derived from a coal-fired power station. The project represents a U.S. Department of Energy research and development initiative designed to demonstrate deep underground injection and containment of 100,000 tonnes or more of anthropogenic-source CO 2 . This report provides an assessment of the CO 2 injection at the Citronelle Anthropogenic Test site for the period August 23, 2012 to August 31, 2013. The purpose of the project assessment is to re-evaluate the AoR for the injection well. The AoR is defined as the region surrounding the geological sequestration project that may be impacted by the injection activity. The AoR is further defined as the farthest reach of the tangible CO 2 plume and/or the region of ‘significant’ reservoir pressure increase. An updated geologic model of the injection zones and storage reservoir sandstones incorporates geologic data obtained from the injection well and characterization wells drilled at the Phase III Anthropogenic Test site. The numerical modeling of the injection was conducted using the updated geologic model, plus the monitoring results obtained to August 31, 2013. The simulation demonstrates effective containment of CO 2 by the reservoir architecture of the upper Paluxy Formation, consisting of multiple, stacked, highly porous and permeable sandstones, separated by low permeability flow barriers. The CO 2 containment demonstrated in this report requires an AoR with a radius of 440 ft from the injection well. This revision reduces the radius of the AoR from the preinjection determination of 1,700 ft. With the revised AoR, the only well within the AoR is the injection well itself, the D 9-7 #2. The nearest well to the injector is the D 9-8 #2. The surface location is 870 ft away from the D 9-7 #2, placing the D 9-8 #2 outside the revised AoR.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Editorial: Particulate Matter Emissions From Conventional and Reformulated Fuel Combustion: Advances in Experiments and Simulations

Particulate matter (PM or soot) emissions generated by combustion of conventional and reformulated fuels adversely impact the environment and human health (Bond et al., 2013; Landrigan et al., 2018; World Health Organization (WHO), 2016), generating public awareness and motivating efforts towards the mitigation of their harmful effects. Soot formation is one of the most complex phenomena in combustion, involving interactions between combustion chemistry, fluid mechanics, mass/heat transport, and particle dynamics, spanning different spatial and temporal scales. A fundamental understanding of soot formation process is thus necessary to achieve a strong reduction of PM emissions and design cleaner and more efficient combustion systems. This has motivated a longstanding and ongoing research activity aimed at improving our understanding of the physical and chemical processes involved in soot formation, well reviewed in these recent works (Wang and Chung, 2019; Michelsen et al., 2020; Martin et al., 2022). Despite the wide interest, the transition from gas-phase molecules to incipient soot particles is still elusive and the successive particle growth and oxidation processes are far from being fully understood, especially in conditions relevant to real-world applications. Recent advances in combustion PM emission diagnostic and computational capabilities helped in improving the predictability of fundamental chemical and aerosol models for practical applications, thus tackling some of the above-mentioned challenges. The aim of this research topic is to display the ongoing research efforts in addressing the existing gaps on particulate formation from various fuel sources and in conditions typical of practical combustion applications (e.g. flames, engines, pool fires), through both experimental and numerical approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

WE-E-BRE-01: An Image-Based Skeletal Dosimetry Model for the ICRP Reference Adult Female - Internal Electron Sources

Purpose: Limitations seen in previous skeletal dosimetry models, which are still employed in commonly used software today, include the lack of consideration of electron escape and cross-fire from cortical bone, the modeling of infinite spongiosa, the disregard of the effect of varying cellularity on active marrow self-irradiation, and the lack of use of the more recent ICRP definition of a 50 micron surrogate tissue region for the osteoprogenitor cells - shallow marrow. These limitations were addressed in the present dosimetry model. Methods: Electron transport was completed to determine specific absorbed fractions to active marrow and shallow marrow of the skeletal regions of the adult female. The bone macrostructure was obtained from the whole-body hybrid computational phantom of the UF series of reference phantoms, while the bone microstructure was derived from microCT images of skeletal region samples taken from a 45 year-old female cadaver. The target tissue regions were active marrow and shallow marrow. The source tissues were active marrow, inactive marrow, trabecular bone volume, trabecular bone surfaces, cortical bone volume and cortical bone surfaces. The marrow cellularity was varied from 10 to 100 percent for active marrow self-irradiation. A total of 33 discrete electron energies, ranging from 1 keV to 10 MeV, were either simulated or modeled analytically. Results: The method of combining macro- and microstructure absorbed fractions calculated using MCNPX electron transport was found to yield results similar to those determined with the PIRT model for the UF adult male in the Hough et al. study. Conclusion: The calculated skeletal averaged absorbed fractions for each source-target combination were found to follow similar trends of more recent dosimetry models (image-based models) and did not follow current models used in nuclear medicine dosimetry at high energies (due to that models use of an infinite expanse of trabecular spongiosa)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Nanosecond Laser Drying in Wafer Foundries for Significant Energy Efficiency Improvement

Surface drying is a critical process in microelectronics wafer fabrication. In order to reduce and eliminate watermarks, many surface drying processes have been studied and used. Most of the wafer foundries currently use drying processes based on Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA), which causes serious safety (fire), health, environmental, and energy efficiency issues. The long-term goal of this project is to develop a fast, effective, chemical-free, and extremely energy efficient wafer drying technology that employs nanosecond laser-induced sub-surface evaporation and explosion. The objectives of this project are to 1) experimentally develop and verify the laser surface drying method, explore and identify how and to what extent various physical parameters influence the drying efficiency and effectiveness; and 2) understand and optimize the underlying thermodynamics in the proposed laser surface drying, including micro/nanoscale sub-surface superheating, evaporation, explosion, and photo/thermochemical bond breaking via atomistic modeling and experimental characterization. Toward these objectives, five tasks have been accomplished successfully, including 1) develop in-lab laser surface drying setup and study the effect of varied laser parameters, 2) use multiscale hybrid-modeling to study and understand the physics of water behavior during drying toward process optimization, 3) investigate the effect of drying conditions on the drying effectiveness, 4) develop a large-scale laser drying scanning system with automatic scanning, and 5) conduct large-scale simulation to study the effect of dopant level and develop strategies for system development toward industry deployment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analyses of Model-Based Predictive Control for a S-CO 2 Brayton Cycle Power Converter

The supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO 2 ) Brayton cycle is a promising alternative to steam cycles as an energy converter for advanced nuclear reactors as well as fossil-fired and concentrated solar power plants. For advanced reactors, such as Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs), the S-CO 2 cycle offers the benefits of high cycle efficiency, very compact turbomachinery, and elimination of sodium-water reactions, all of which may enable improved economics. The efficiency gains calculated for the S-CO 2 cycle are particularly significant if advantage can be taken of the sharp changes in the carbon dioxide thermo-physical properties near the critical point. On the other hand, the same property variations give rise to challenges in the cycle design, analysis, and control. The onset of two-phase flow (where the minimum cycle temperature and pressure drop drop below the critical value) can degrade compressor performance and potentially cause damage to the compressor blades. In previous work, the feasibility of the Model-based Predictive Control (MPC) approach was assessed for improving regulation of the precooler outlet temperature. A linear reduced-order model for the precooler was generated and for this simplified standalone system operating with an MPC controller the response of outlet temperature was evaluated through simulations. These evaluations included the presence of temperature measurement time delay representing a degraded sensor. It was demonstrated that the MPC controller maintained stable precooler temperature for those delay cases where a proportional-integral controller became unstable. In the present work the simulations have been extended to evaluate the MPC controller operating under more realistic conditions, namely in the split-flow recompression cycle non-linear plant. This compares with the previous standalone reduced-order linear system described above. In the present work the MPC-based control scheme was implemented in a GPASS 1-D systems code representation of the split-flow recompression cycle. The performance of the controller was again investigated for degraded sensor conditions and compared to that of a proportional-integral controller. The results were qualitatively similar to the previous results with the MPC controller and again providing superior stability characteristics. This work provides a sound starting point for the development of model-based control systems. In particular, the MPC control approach applied to Multiple Input Multiple Output systems can be used to synchronize the operation of the different system components to improve control system dynamic performance.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Economic Evaluation of Flexibility in the Design of IGCC Plants with Integrated Membrane Reactor Modules

ABSTRACT Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle with embedded membrane reactor modules (IGCC‐MR) represents a new technology option for the coproduction of electricity and pure hydrogen endowed with enhanced environmental performance capacity. It is viewed as an alternative to conventional coal‐ and gas‐fired power generation technologies. An IGCC‐MR power plant needs to be techno‐economically evaluated in the presence of irreducible regulatory and fuel market uncertainties for the potential deployment of an initial fleet of demonstration plants at the commercial scale. This paper applies a systematic methodological framework to assess the economic value of flexible alternatives in the design and operation of an IGCC‐MR plant under the aforementioned sources of uncertainty. The main objective is to demonstrate the potential value enhancements associated with the long‐term economic performance of flexible IGCC‐MR project investments, by managing the uncertainty associated with future environmental regulations and fuel costs. The paper provides an overview of promising design flexibility concepts for IGCC‐MR power plants and focuses on operational and constructional systems flexibility. Operational flexibility is realized through temporary plant shutdown with considerations of regulatory and market uncertainties. Constructional flexibility is realized by considering the installation of a Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) unit at three strategic periods: (1) installation at the initial construction phase, (2) retrofitting at a later stage, and (3) retrofitting at a later stage with preinvestment. Monte Carlo simulations and financial analysis demonstrate that, in the presence of irreducible uncertainty, the most economically advantageous flexibility option is to install CCS in the initial IGCC‐MR construction phase.

Zhang, Juzheng↗

Water Enables Efficient CO 2 Capture from Natural Gas Flue Emissions in an Oxidation-Resistant Diamine-Appended Metal–Organic Framework

Supported by increasingly available reserves, natural gas is achieving greater adoption as a cleaner-burning alternative to coal in the power sector. As a result, carbon capture and sequestration from natural gas-fired power plants is an attractive strategy to mitigate global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. However, the separation of CO 2 from other components in the flue streams of gas-fired power plants is particularly challenging due to the low CO 2 partial pressure (~40 mbar), which necessitates that candidate separation materials bind CO 2 strongly at low partial pressures (≤4 mbar) to capture ≥90% of the emitted CO 2 . High partial pressures of O 2 (120 mbar) and water (80 mbar) in these flue streams have also presented significant barriers to the deployment of new technologies for CO 2 capture from gas-fired power plants. In this paper, we demonstrate that functionalization of the metal–organic framework Mg 2 (dobpdc) (dobpdc 4– = 4,4'-dioxidobiphenyl-3,3'-dicarboxylate) with the cyclic diamine 2-(aminomethyl)piperidine (2-ampd) produces an adsorbent that is capable of ≥90% CO 2 capture from a humid natural gas flue emission stream, as confirmed by breakthrough measurements. This material captures CO 2 by a cooperative mechanism that enables access to a large CO 2 cycling capacity with a small temperature swing (2.4 mmol CO 2 /g with Δ T = 100 °C). Significantly, multicomponent adsorption experiments, infrared spectroscopy, magic angle spinning solid-state NMR spectroscopy, and van der Waals-corrected density functional theory studies suggest that water enhances CO 2 capture in 2-ampd–Mg 2 (dobpdc) through hydrogen-bonding interactions with the carbamate groups of the ammonium carbamate chains formed upon CO 2 adsorption, thereby increasing the thermodynamic driving force for CO 2 binding. In light of the exceptional thermal and oxidative stability of 2-ampd–Mg 2 (dobpdc), its high CO 2 adsorption capacity, and its high CO 2 capture rate from a simulated natural gas flue emission stream, this material is one of the most promising adsorbents to date for this important separation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Crashworthiness Models for Automotive Batteries - Report on Project 2088-A031-15 for DOT/NHTSA

Safety is a key element of any device designed to store energy, in particular electrochemical batteries, which convert energy of chemical reactions to electrical energy. Safety considerations are especially important when applied to large automotive batteries designed for propulsion of electric vehicles (EV). The high amount of energy stored in EV battery packs translates to higher probability of fire in case of severe deformation of battery compartment due to automotive crash or impact caused by road debris. While such demand for safety has resulted in heavier protection of battery enclosure, the mechanisms leading to internal short circuit due to deformation of the battery are not well understood even on the level of a single electrochemical cell. Moreover, not all internal shorts result in thermal runaway, and thus a criterion for catastrophic failure needs to be developed. This report summarizes the effort to pinpoint the critical deformation necessary to trigger a short via experimental study on large format automotive Li-ion cells in a rigid spherical indentation configuration. Cases of single cells and cell stacks undergoing indentation were investigated. Mechanical properties of cell components were determined via experimental testing and served as input for constitutive models of Finite Element (FE) analysis. The ability of the model to predict the behavior of cell(s) under spherical indentation and to predict failure leading to internal short circuit was validated against experiments. The necessity of resolving pairs of negative and positive electrodes in the FE formulation is clearly demonstrated by comparing layer-resolved simulations with simulations involving batteries with homogenized material properties. Finally, a coupled solution of electrochemical-electrical-thermal (EET) problem on a Nissan Leaf battery module was demonstrated towards the goal of extending the simulations to module level.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Evaluating the Effect of Vane Trailing Edge Flow on Turbine Rim Sealing

Abstract Modern gas turbine development continues to move toward increased overall efficiency, driven in part by higher firing temperatures that point to a need for more cooling air to prevent catastrophic component failure. However, using additional cooling flow bled from the upstream compressor causes a corresponding detriment to overall efficiency. A primary candidate for cooling flow optimization is purge flow, which contributes to sealing the stator–rotor cavity and prevents ingestion of hot main gas path (MGP) flow into the wheelspace. Previous research has identified that the external main gas path flow physics play a significant role in driving rim seal ingestion. However, the potential impact of other cooling flow features on ingestion behavior, such as vane trailing edge (VTE) flow, is absent in the open literature. This paper presents experimental measurements of rim cavity cooling effectiveness collected from a one-stage turbine operating at engine-representative Reynolds and Mach numbers. Carbon dioxide (CO2) was used as a tracer gas in both the purge flow and vane trailing edge flow to investigate flow migration into and out of the wheelspace. Results show that the vane trailing edge flow does in fact migrate into the rim seal and that there is a superposition relationship between individual cooling flow contributions. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations using unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (URANS) were used to confirm VTE flow ingestion into the rim seal cavity. Radial and circumferential traverse surveys were performed to quantify cooling flow radial migration through the main gas path with and without vane trailing edge flow. The surveys confirmed that vane trailing edge flow is entrained into the wheelspace as purge flow is reduced. Local CO2 measurements also confirmed the presence of VTE flow deep in the wheelspace cavity.

Engineering↗

Integrated Commercial Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Prefeasibility Study at Rock Springs Uplift, Wyoming (Final Report)

To establish the potential of safe, long-term commercial-scale carbon capture & storage (CCS) in southwestern Wyoming, the University of Wyoming formed a CCS coordination team (CCT) to complete a Phase I CarbonSAFE pre-feasibility study adjacent to the region’s largest coal-fired power plant, the Jim Bridger Plant (JBP). The study’s primary objective was to evaluate the potential of storing 50+ million metric tons of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in stacked reservoirs over a period of 25 years. In addition, this integrated study evaluated related aspects of carbon capture utilization & storage (CCUS) at the study site, including: (1) the CO 2 character of post-combustion flue gas from JBP and the technical capacity for retrofitting proven commercial-scale CO 2 capture technology relative to CO 2 source character and technological constraints; (2) utilization of the existing CO 2 pipeline network in the immediate vicinity of JBP for enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) and utilizing that network as part of a regional hub for CO 2 storage from other anthropogenic sources; (3) assessment of the challenges and benefits of meeting all of CarbonSAFE programmatic Phase I goals relative to Wyoming’s carbon management regulatory framework; and (4) assessment of the community and environmental factors that may impact CCS at JBP. With respect to storage, we analyzed the potential of stacked Mesozoic reservoirs at the study site, focusing on the Entrada and Nugget sandstones. The reservoir response to injection simulations varied greatly between formations, though they both were capable of CO 2 storage. The Entrada Sandstone is relative thin (~40’) and heterogeneous; storage using one injection and production well was limited to 1.2 Mt over 25 years at the study site. The Nugget Sandstone is much thicker (> 400’) and generally homogeneous; storage using one injection and production well approached 15.0 Mt over 25 years; this scenario suggests that the storage potential in the Nugget Sandstone is close to the estimated P90 calculation of 9.6 Mt/mi 2 as models indicate a storage potential of 8.3 Mt/mi 2 at saturation. Both reservoirs’ storage capacity benefited greatly from coupling an injection well with an offset production well; total storage capacity increased and reservoir pressure stayed below critical thresholds. This indicates that implementing a pressure management strategy at the study site would optimize storage and decrease risk. Seals associated with the targeted reservoirs were shown to be capable of retaining the potential storage volumes, and the site benefits from multiple seal redundancies (i.e. > 7,000’ of seal formations). Furthermore, assessment of different reservoir variables (e.g., fluid composition, pressure, etc.) indicates all reservoirs at the study site are isolated. Storage assessments from Mesozoic reservoirs were coupled with simulations from the site’s Paleozoic reservoirs (the Weber Sandstone and Madison Limestone), which were the focus of previous study. The fully integrated stacked reservoir pre-feasibility studies suggest that the Nugget and Madison formations alone could safely store 50 million metric tons of CO 2 within the study site. Furthermore, both formations are true saline reservoirs near JBP, making them ideal target reservoirs for CO 2 sequestration. Analysis of Wyoming’s laws and regulations confirm that the State has a favorable policy environment for CCS/CCUS. The project’s economic models estimated that the following revenues collectively are sufficient to finance the project over its lifespan if CO 2 utilization is coupled with CCS via the following strategies: (1) sales of CO 2 for EOR (approximately $69 million/year); (2) use of CO 2 tax credits such as amended §45Q and §48A (approximately $484 million total); and (3) sales of low-carbon electricity and marketable carbon offset/credits into carbon-constrained markets (approximately $11-$17 million/year) to West Coast consumers. These revenue estimates are broadly consistent with other studies that concluded arbitrage in JBP retail electricity sales between California and Wyoming could help to support the cost of deploying CCS at JBP. The models also indicate that maintaining a successful business case for long-term CCS -- wherein associated capture, transportation and operational costs are fully addressed at JBP -- is reliant on numerous external factors that complicate predictions. This study suggests that this site meets the CarbonSAFE program’s requirements of being able to feasibly store 50+ million metric tons of CO 2 over 25 years within the site’s stacked reservoirs, especially if coupled with pressure management strategies. This study suggests that the Nugget Sandstone and the Madison Limestone are two of the best reservoirs in the State with respect to overall storage capacity. In addition, the site’s proximity to existing CO 2 transportation networks, CO 2 -EOR opportunities, ability to sell to markets that value low-carbon electricity, Wyoming’s existing carbon regulatory framework, and a public that is well-educated with respect to energy markets and issues collectively increase the potential for implementing commercial-scale CCS adjacent to the JBP. With respect to the available technical and non-technical site data, and the reservoir quality at the study site, we suggest that this site is capable of moving directly into Phase III of the CarbonSAFE program.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Validation of heat transfer, thermal decomposition, and container pressurization of polyurethane foam using mean value and Latin hypercube sampling approaches

In this study, polymer foam encapsulants provide mechanical, electrical, and thermal isolation in engineered systems. It can be advantageous to surround objects of interest, such as electronics, with foams in a hermetically sealed container in order to protect them from hostile environments or from accidents such as fire. In fire environments, gas pressure from thermal decomposition of foams can cause mechanical failure of sealed systems. In this work, a detailed uncertainty quantification study of polymeric methylene diisocyanate (PMDI)-polyether-polyol based polyurethane foam is presented and compared to experimental results to assess the validity of a 3-D finite element model of the heat transfer and degradation processes. In this series of experiments, 320 kg/m 3 PMDI foam in a 0.2 L sealed steel container is heated to 1,073 K at a rate of 150 K/min. The experiment ends when the can breaches due to the buildup of pressure. The temperature at key location is monitored as well as the internal pressure of the can. Both experimental uncertainty and computational uncertainty are examined and compared. The mean value method (MV) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) approach are used to propagate the uncertainty through the model. The results of the both the MV method and the LHS approach show that while the model generally can predict the temperature at given locations in the system, it is less successful at predicting the pressure response. Also, these two approaches for propagating uncertainty agree with each other, the importance of each input parameter on the simulation results is also investigated, showing that for the temperature response the conductivity of the steel container and the effective conductivity of the foam, are the most important parameters. For the pressure response, the activation energy, effective conductivity, and specific heat are most important. The comparison to experiments and the identification of the drivers of uncertainty allow for targeted development of the computational model and for definition of the experiments necessary to improve accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

CarbonSAFE Rocky Mountain Phase I: Ensuring Safe Subsurface Storage of Carbon Dioxide in the Intermountain West

An integrated CCS pre-feasibility study, CarbonSAF E Rocky Mountain Phase I, was conducted by the U niversity of Utah and its partners as part of the US D epartment of Energy’s Carbon Storage Assurance a nd Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) program. The a ssembled project team consisted of academic, indus try and governmental agencies covering the technic al and non- technical challenges of a commercial-sc ale CO 2 storage facility capable of storing 50 million tonnes of anthropogenically-sourced CO 2 . The Rock y Mountain CarbonSAFE team identified the Hunter Power Plant in central Utah as the primary source of CO 2 on which this study would be focused. The nea rby Huntington power plant, also operated by Rocky Mountain Power, was evaluated as a secondary sou rce of CO 2 . The Hunter plant was chosen because o f an interest in CO 2 capture technology by the plant operator, Rocky Mountain Power, and also because i t is a representative example of a typical coal-fired g enerating station in the Rocky Mountain west. Amine -based and cryogenic-based capture assessments w ere performed for approximately 3 million tonnes per year for one of the boiler units at the Hunter plant, yi elding cost of capture estimates of $\$56$/tonne and $\$4 1.50$/tonne. Transportation and intermediate compre ssion would increase the per tonne costs, but will be highly dependent on specific injection locations and available rights-of-way. A high-level technical sub-ba sinal evaluation was performed on the area surround ing the Hunter and Huntington power plants to verify CO 2 storage capacity and integrity. Initial geologic c haracterization efforts focused on sites immediately adjacent to the Hunter plant, including the deep eolia n Permian White Rim Sandstone, which in outcrop a nd core from other locations indicates high permeabi lity and high porosity. However, petrophysical logs fr om wells near Hunter indicate porosity of only 2-4%. As a result, potential injection sites were moved stru cturally down-dip (to the west), into the high permea bility (~200 mD) and high porosity (20%) Navajo san dstone. A comprehensive analysis of the reservoir a nd seals was conducted, providing data to the model , simulation and risk assessment groups on the proje ct. CO 2 capacity estimates for the Navajo Sandston e approximately 18 kilometers from the Hunter plant are well in excess of the 50 million tonnes goal of the project. Area of Review Delineation and Risk Asse ssment on the Navajo, associated seals and shallow groundwater aquifers identified the most significant risks and mitigation options. A non-technical assessment to a commercial-scale CO 2 storage facility in central Utah was conducted. EPA Underground Injection Control Class VI and National Environmental Policy Act permitting present particularly challenging issues related to the development of any saline aquifer for CO 2 storage, including the area around the Hunter plant. While surface and subsurface ownership and ri ghts are not straightforward, especially on any privat e land, many of the stakeholders in central Utah are accustomed and open to oil/gas/mineral-related activities similar to what would be required for CO 2 storage sites.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Investigation of Technologies to Improve Condenser Heat Transfer and Performance in a Relevant Coal-Fired Power Plant

Improvements in thermal power-generating plant performance is correlated directly to societal benefits including lower cost of reduced fuel consumption, resulting in lower cost of electricity for the consumer and reduced carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Warm steam exhausted from low-pressure steam turbines is condensed to liquid water on the exterior of thin-walled metal condenser tubes with cooling water passing through the tube interior. The condensation of steam creates a vacuum that supports turbine rotation and the concurrent generation of electricity. This vacuum is optimized when heat transfer across the wall of condenser tube is maximized. Common hindrances to heat transfer include foulants in cooling water that may form and adhere to the interior of condenser tubes, including mineral scale, microbiological films, and particulate deposition. Flowing cooling water may also include a laminar layer at the interior metal surfaces that travels more slowly than bulk water flow, serving to impede heat transfer. On the tube exterior, condensing steam forms an insulating layer of water that flows down the tube and reduces the effectiveness of cooling. Both the interior and exterior barriers to optimal heat transfer may be alleviated to some extent by surface treatments. On the tube interior, hydrophobic coatings may be applied that can reduced the adherence of foulants and of the laminar flow layer to the tube surface. On the tube exterior, hydrophobic coatings or mechanical treatments can be applied that may result in the termination of droplet growth and the departure of droplets from the surface rather than coalescence into a continuous layer of flowing water. Fourteen surface treatments were applied to condenser tubes in this study, including eight interior coatings and six exterior treatments, five of which were coatings and one a microstructural texture. Heat transfer measurement equipment simulating conditions in the condenser of an operating power plant was used to determine heat transfer coefficients by measuring sufficient flow, temperature, water chemistry and other data. Several of the tubes with interior surface treatments showed improvement in heat transfer coefficients compared with a plain (uncoated) tube, and several of the tubes with exterior surface treatments also showed enhanced heat transfer coefficients.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Seasonal variations in fire conditions are important drivers in the trend of aerosol optical properties over the south-eastern Atlantic

Abstract. From June to October, southern Africa produces one-third of the global biomass burning (BB) emissions by widespread fires. BB aerosols are transported westward over the south-eastern Atlantic with the mid-tropospheric winds, resulting in significant radiative effects. Ascension Island (ASI) is located midway between Africa and South America. From June 2016 to October 2017, a 17-month in situ observation campaign on ASI found a low single-scattering albedo (SSA) as well as a high mass absorption cross-section of black carbon (MACBC), demonstrating the strong absorbing marine boundary layer in the south-eastern Atlantic. Here we investigate the monthly variations of critical optical properties of BB aerosols, i.e. SSA and MACBC, during the BB seasons and the driving factors behind these variations. Both SSA and MACBC increase from June to August and decrease in September and October. The average SSA during the BB seasons is 0.81 at 529 nm wavelength, with the highest mean ∼ 0.85 in October and the lowest ∼ 0.78 in August. The absorption enhancement (Eabs) derived from the MACBC shows similar trends with SSA, with the average during the whole of the BB seasons at ∼ 1.96 and ∼ 2.07 in 2016 and 2017, respectively. As the Eabs is higher than the ∼ 1.5 commonly adopted value by climate models, this result suggests the marine boundary layer in the south-eastern Atlantic is more absorbing than model simulations. We find the enhanced ratio of BC to CO (ΔBC/ΔCO, equal to BC/ΔCO as the BC background concentration is considered to be 0) is well correlated with SSA and MACBC, providing a simple way to estimate the aerosol optical characteristics in the south-eastern Atlantic. The exponential function we proposed can approximate SSA and MACBC with BC/ΔCO, and when BC/ΔCO is small it can capture the rapid growth of SSA as BC/ΔCO decreases. BC/ΔCO is influenced by combustion conditions and aerosol scavenging. From the analysis of the location of BB, the primary source fuel, the water content in the fuel, combined with the mean cloud cover and precipitation in the transport areas of the BB plume, we conclude that the increase in BC/ΔCO from June to August is likely to be caused by burning becoming more flaming. The reduction in the water content of fuels may be responsible for the change in the burning conditions from June to August. The decrease in BC/ΔCO in September and October may be caused by two factors, one being a lower proportion of flaming conditions, possibly associated with a decrease in mean surface wind speed in the burning area, and the other being an increase in precipitation in the BB transport pathway, leading to enhanced aerosol scavenging, which ultimately results in an increase in SSA and MACBC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CO 2 Capture with Ionic Liquids Involving Phase Change (Final Report)

Coal-fired power plants provide nearly 50% of all electricity in the U.S. While coal is a cheap and abundant natural resource, its continued use contributes to rising carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) levels in the atmosphere. Capturing and storing this CO 2 would reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas levels while allowing power plants to continue using inexpensive coal. Carbon capture and storage represents a significant cost to power plants that must retrofit their existing facilities to accommodate new technologies. Reducing these costs is the primary objective of ARPA-E's carbon capture program. Researchers at the University of Notre Dame and their partners at Matric developed a new CO 2 capture process that uses materials that we call Phase Change Ionic Liquids (PCILs). PCILs are solid at the temperature of the CO 2 absorption but change to liquid when they bind with CO 2 . The PCILs have a high capacity for CO 2 at post-combustion flue gas pressures and temperatures because of a chemical reaction between the CO 2 and the PCIL. Upon heating, the CO 2 is released, and the PCILs re-solidify. The heat released in the solidification process reduces the amount of external heat that must be added. As with conventional CO 2 capture processes, the PCIL process has an absorber and a regenerator. Computer simulation of the process enabled calculation of viable process conditions and power needs. The main concepts of the process were demonstrated using lab-scale apparatus. Capture of CO 2 was carried out using a sieve tray column in continuous mode. Desorption of the CO 2 in the regenerator occurred while the liquid droplets solidified. The key to making this process viable was the use of a mixture of the complexed liquid with the unreacted solid particles in the absorber. This mixture formed a well-behaved slurry that flowed readily. Therefore, handling of solid particles is avoided in the process. Parasitic power was decreased by 55% from the amount required by the monoethanolamine (MEA) process. For the PCIL process, parasitic power is only 23% of the net power generated by the plant, which is remarkably close to the 19% DOE target. The capital cost for the CO 2 capture unit is higher for the PCIL process than the MEA process. Nonetheless, the overall increase in the cost of electricity (COE) is dramatically lower - only 4.1¢/kWh for the PCIL process compared with 5.7¢/kWh for the MEA process. The cost of CO 2 avoided is $48/ton of CO 2 . As a result, we conclude that CO 2 capture with phase change ionic liquids is an exceedingly promising technology.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Bench-Scale Development of a Hot Carbonate Absorption Process with Crystallization-Enabled High-Pressure Stripping for Post-Combustion CO 2 Capture (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

A novel Hot Carbonate Absorption Process with Crystallization-Enabled High-Pressure Stripping (Hot-CAP) has been developed by the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Carbon Capture Scientific, LLC in this three-year, bench-scale project. The Hot-CAP features a concentrated carbonate solution (e.g., K 2 CO 3 ) for CO 2 absorption and a bicarbonate slurry (e.g., KHCO 3 ) for high-pressure CO 2 stripping to overcome the energy use and other disadvantages associated with the benchmark monoethanolamine (MEA) process. The project was aimed at performing laboratory- and bench-scale experiments to prove its technical feasibility and generate process engineering and scale-up data, and conducting a techno-economic analysis (TEA) to demonstrate its energy use and cost competitiveness over MEA. To meet project goals and objectives, a combination of experimental, modeling, process simulation, and economic analysis studies were applied. Carefully designed and intensive experiments were conducted to measure thermodynamic and reaction engineering data relevant to four major unit operations in the Hot-CAP (i.e., CO 2 absorption, CO 2 stripping, bicarbonate crystallization, and sulfate reclamation). The rate promoters that could accelerate the CO 2 absorption rate into the potassium carbonate/bicarbonate (PCB) solution to a level greater than that into the 5 M MEA solution were identified, and the superior performance of CO 2 absorption into PCB was demonstrated in a bench-scale packed-bed column. Kinetic data on bicarbonate crystallization were developed and applied for crystallizer design and sizing. Parametric testing of high-pressure CO 2 stripping with concentrated bicarbonate-dominant slurries at high temperatures (≥140°C) in a bench-scale stripping column demonstrated lower heat use than with MEA. The feasibility of a modified process for combining SO 2 removal with CO 2 capture was preliminarily demonstrated. In addition to the experimental studies, the technical challenges pertinent to fouling of slurry-handling equipment and the design of the crystallizer and stripper were addressed through consultation with vendors and engineering analyses. A process flow diagram of the Hot-CAP was then developed and a TEA was performed to compare the energy use and cost performance of a nominal 550-MWe subcritical pulverized coal (PC)-fired power plant without CO 2 capture (DOE/NETL Case 9) with the benchmark MEA-based post-combustion CO 2 capture (PCC; DOE/NETL Case 10) and the Hot-CAP-based PCC. The results revealed that the net power produced in the PC + Hot-CAP is 609 MWe, greater than the PC + MEA (550 MWe). The 20-year levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for the PC + Hot-CAP, including CO 2 transportation and storage, is 120.3 mills/kWh, a 60% increase over the base PC plant without CO 2 capture. The LCOE increase for the Hot-CAP is 29% lower than that for MEA. TEA results demonstrated that the Hot-CAP is energy-efficient and cost-effective compared with the benchmark MEA process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗