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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1983

An evaluation of soundings, analyses and model forecasts derived from TIROS-N and NOAA-6 satellite data

TIROS-N and NOAA-6 temperature soundings over North America during three days in January 1980, and synoptic analyses and numerical-model forecasts derived from them, are compared with conventional data and analyses from NMC's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM). The collocated sounding comparison revealed significant errors, especially near the surface and the tropopause. Satellite-derived thermal gradients were found to be weak, and thickness-analysis difference fields to propagate eastward, suggesting that sounding errors are correlated with synoptic patterns. The same pattern of anomalies is seen in the model forecasts. More detailed determinations of the correlation detected here could be used to optimize the assimilation of satellite soundings to conventional data.

Koehler, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A comparison of the domestic satellite communications forecast to the year 2000

The methodologies and results of three NASA-sponsored market demand assessment studies are presented and compared. Forecasts of future satellite addressable traffic (both trunking and customer premises services) were developed for the three main service categories of voice, data and video and subcategories thereof for the benchmark years of 1980, 1990 and 2000. The contractor results are presented on a service by service basis in two formats: equivalent 36 MHz transponders and basic transmission units (voice: half-voice circuits, data: megabits per second and video: video channels). It is shown that while considerable differences exist at the service category level, the overall forecasts by the two contractors are quite similar. ITT estimates the total potential satellite market to be 3594 transponders in the year 2000 with data service comprising 54 percent of this total. The WU outlook for the same time period is 2779 transponders with voice services accounting for 66 percent of the total.

Poley, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Study to forecast and determine characteristics of world satellite communications market

The world commercial communications satellite market during the spring and summer of 1983 was examined and characteristics and forecasts of the market extending to the year 2000 were developed. Past, present and planned satellites were documented in relation to frequencies, procurement and launch dates, costs, transponders, and prime contractor. Characteristics of the market are outlined for the periods 1965 - 1985, 1986 - 1989, and 1990 - 2000. Market share forecasts, discussions of potential competitors in various world markets, and profiles of major communication satellite manufacturing and user countries are documented.

Filep, R. T.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Spaceborne sensors (1983-2000 AD): A forecast of technology

A technical review and forecast of space technology as it applies to spaceborne sensors for future NASA missions is presented. A format for categorization of sensor systems covering the entire electromagnetic spectrum, including particles and fields is developed. Major generic sensor systems are related to their subsystems, components, and to basic research and development. General supporting technologies such as cryogenics, optical design, and data processing electronics are addressed where appropriate. The dependence of many classes of instruments on common components, basic R&D and support technologies is also illustrated. A forecast of important system designs and instrument and component performance parameters is provided for the 1983-2000 AD time frame. Some insight into the scientific and applications capabilities and goals of the sensor systems is also given.

Kostiuk, T.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Performance of a quantitative jet stream turbulence forecasting technique - The Specific CAT Risk (SCATR) index

The SCATR index is showing considerable promise as a tool for operational, nonconvective, high altitude turbulence forecasting. The results of nine case studies are summarized. Attention is then focused on one of these cases for which the data base is most complete. In light of these case studies, the strengths and weaknesses of the current formulation and suggested improvements are discussed. The SCATR index has applications both as a diagnostic tool and in operational forecasting.

Keller, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The impact of Seasat-A scatterometer data on GLAS model forecasts

The effect of SASS (Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer) data on the GLAS analysis and forecast system is assessed. After discussing the objective analysis and assimilation of SASS winds, consideration is given to a scheme developed to objectively dealias the SASS data. Results are then presented from analysis and forecast experiments. The evaluation finds a negligible effect of the SASS data in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the impact is larger and for the most part beneficial when the VTPR (vertical temperature profile radiometer) is excluded. However, the inclusion of VTPR data effectively eliminates this positive impact, suggesting some redundancy between the two data sets.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Response of Winter Forecasts Made with the GLA Fourth Order GCM to Changes in the Horizontal Grid Resolution

The GLA Fourth Order General Circulation Model was modified in 1984 to allow it to be run at a finer horizontal grid resolution. Previously the standard model versions integrated the primitive equations on a 4 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude grid. Forecasts made at this resolution are compared to others which were made using the finer 2 degree latitude by 2 1/2 degree longitude grid resolution. Three winter cases are included with initial conditions from 15 December 1978, 5 January 1979 and 21 January 1979. The 21 January 1979 initial conditions were taken from a GLAS analysis (experiment 2728) which incorporated the GLAS temperature retrievals. The other two cases used European Center Analysis for initial conditions. The forecasts were all verified against European Center Analysis.

Pfaendtner, J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 1

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 1 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 1 compares flight plans based on forecasts with plans based on the verifying analysis from 33 days during the summer and fall of 1979. The comparisons show that: (1) potential fuel savings conservatively estimated to be between 1.2 and 2.5 percent could result from using more timely and accurate weather data in flight planning and route selection; (2) the Suitland forecast generally underestimates wind speeds; and (3) the track selection methodology of many airlines operating on the North Atlantic may not be optimum resulting in their selecting other than the optimum North Atlantic Organized Track about 50 percent of the time.

Keitz, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Medium range forecasting: The experience of ECMWF

The results of five years of operational medium-range forecasts at ECMWF is discussed. It is shown that a considerable improvement in predictive skill has taken place, resulting in more accurate forecasts and an extension in time of useful predictive skill. For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, the improvement in skill during the winter season is about three days for the 500-mb geopotential compared to the very first experiments in the early 1970s. Three are large geographical and temporal variations in the performance of the model, as well as large-scale errors of a systematic nature. Numerical experiments have indicated great sensitivity to the representation of orography and to tropical forcing.

Bengtsson, L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A monthly forecast experiment: Preliminary report

An experiment on monthly forecasts with eight winter cases is being carried out, using a 1980 general circulation model (GCM), which incorporates a set of dubgrid-scale physics characterized by the Mellon-Yamada turbulence closure (hierarchy level 2.5), the Monin-Obukhov parameterization for the layer next to the ground surface, Manabe's cumulus parameterization, and the soil heat conduction. The sample cases adopted are for the month of January in the years from 1977 to 1983, which include the extraordinarily severe winter of 1977 and the most pronounced E1 Nino year of 1983. Each case is predicted by prescribing the climatologically normal sea surface temperature as the lower boundary conditions and by using an ensemble means of three individual integrations. These integrations start with three different initial conditions based on the Level data generated separately at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, the National Meteorological Center, and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.

Miyakoda, K.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Synoptic scale forecast skill and systematic errors in the MASS 2.0 model

The synoptic scale performance characteristics of MASS 2.0 are determined by comparing filtered 12-24 hr model forecasts to same-case forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's synoptic-scale Limited-area Fine Mesh model. Characteristics of the two systems are contrasted, and the analysis methodology used to determine statistical skill scores and systematic errors is described. The overall relative performance of the two models in the sample is documented, and important systematic errors uncovered are presented.

Koch, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Nitric acid forecast experiments

Results of two three-dimensional forecasts of the time evolution of the distribution of HNO3 in the stratosphere are reported. The first is for the February 1979 stratospheric warming, and the second is for a period in March, 1979 when the relative importance of photochemistry and dynamics is thought to be rapidly changing. The zonal mean results of the model calculations are in general qualitative agreement with the LIMS HNO3 observations. However, the calculated three-dimensional fields show significant differences from the observations. The results provide insight into what must be done to form a successful constituent forecast model and provide information on the modeling technique and the self-consistency of the observed dynamical and constituent fields.

Rood, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS1988

On the dynamic estimation of relative weights for observation and forecast in numerical weather prediction

The problem of merging direct and remotely sensed (indirect) data with forecast data to get an estimate of the present state of the atmosphere for the purpose of numerical weather prediction is examined. To carry out this merging optimally, it is necessary to provide an estimate of the relative weights to be given to the observations and forecast. It is possible to do this dynamically from the information to be merged, if the correlation structure of the errors from the various sources is sufficiently different. Some new statistical approaches to doing this are described, and conditions quantified in which such estimates are likely to be good.

Wahba, Grace↗
NASA NTRS1987

Error growth and predictability in operational ECMWF forecasts

The forecast error growth in the 100-day ECMWF data set of 10-day forecasts previously utilized by Lorenz (1982) is studied, separating the square of the error into systematic and random components. The nature of the errors is analyzed in the spherical harmonics wavenumber domain, and a new parametrization and its application to global errors are presented. The wavenumber dependence of the error growth is studied.

Dalcher, Amnon↗
NASA NTRS1987

Forecast experiments with the NASA/GLA stratospheric/tropospheric data assimilation system

For the first time, a four-dimensional stratospheric/tropospheric data assimilation system with a top analysis level at 0.4 mb has been developed and used to produce physically consistent gridded analyses for the stratosphere as well as the troposphere for a period during the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) and Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) (November 1978-May 1979). The system consists of a two-dimensional optimum interpolation analysis with 18 mandatory pressure levels and a 19-level fourth order stratospheric/tropospheric general circulation model with a horizontal resolution of 4 (latitude) by 5 deg (longitude) and a top at 0.3 mb. The system allows the utilization of stratospheric data including LIMS, Tiros-N retrievals, rocketsondes and vertical temperature profile radiometer soundings in addition to the other FGGE level 2b data. These data are analyzed every six hours. In order to examine the quality of the analyzed data, forecast experiments starting from different analyses are performed for the period of the stratospheric sudden warming of late February 1979. The results indicate that by employing the present four-dimensional assimilation approach, the medium-range forecast skill for this event is improved.

Takano, Kenji↗
NASA NTRS1990

Simulated forecast error and climate drift resulting from the omission of the upper stratosphere in numerical models

Using an NCAR community climate model, Version I, the forecast error growth and the climate drift resulting from the omission of the upper stratosphere are investigated. In the experiment, the control simulation is a seasonal integration of a medium horizontal general circulation model with 30 levels extending from the surface to the upper mesosphere, while the main experiment uses an identical model, except that only the bottom 15 levels (below 10 mb) are retained. It is shown that both random and systematic errors develop rapidly in the lower stratosphere with some local propagation into the troposphere in the 10-30-day time range. The random growth rate in the troposphere in the case of the altered upper boundary was found to be slightly faster than that for the initial-condition uncertainty alone. However, this is not likely to make a significant impact in operational forecast models, because the initial-condition uncertainty is very large.

Boville, Byron A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Systematic errors in the annual and intraseasonal variations of the planetary-scale divergent circulation in NMC medium-range forecasts

The systematic error in the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) medium-range operational forecasts of the global divergence during 1987 and 1988 is examined in this study. As in other operational NWP models the NMC model has too weak an annual mean, annual cycle, and 30-60 day oscillation. This weakness shows up after only a few days, especially over the monsoon region and tropical areas. When the intraseasonal oscillation amplitude is large the model predictive skill is improved. The eastward propagation of the low-frequency mode is well predicted throughout the 10-day forecast period. The north-south migration of the tropical Hadley circulation, depicted primarily by the annual-cycle mode, is also weaker although the phase pattern predicted by the MRF is consistent with analyses.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗
NASA NTRS1991

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.

Layden, A. C.↗