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DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of integrated assessment model hindcast experiments: a case study of the GCAM 3.0 land use module

Abstract. Hindcasting experiments (conducting a model forecast for a time period in which observational data are available) are being undertaken increasingly often by the integrated assessment model (IAM) community, across many scales of models. When they are undertaken, the results are often evaluated using global aggregates or otherwise highly aggregated skill scores that mask deficiencies. We select a set of deviation-based measures that can be applied on different spatial scales (regional versus global) to make evaluating the large number of variable–region combinations in IAMs more tractable. We also identify performance benchmarks for these measures, based on the statistics of the observational dataset, that allow a model to be evaluated in absolute terms rather than relative to the performance of other models at similar tasks. An ideal evaluation method for hindcast experiments in IAMs would feature both absolute measures for evaluation of a single experiment for a single model and relative measures to compare the results of multiple experiments for a single model or the same experiment repeated across multiple models, such as in community intercomparison studies. The performance benchmarks highlight the use of this scheme for model evaluation in absolute terms, providing information about the reasons a model may perform poorly on a given measure and therefore identifying opportunities for improvement. To demonstrate the use of and types of results possible with the evaluation method, the measures are applied to the results of a past hindcast experiment focusing on land allocation in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. The question of how to more holistically evaluate models as complex as IAMs is an area for future research. We find quantitative evidence that global aggregates alone are not sufficient for evaluating IAMs that require global supply to equal global demand at each time period, such as GCAM. The results of this work indicate it is unlikely that a single evaluation measure for all variables in an IAM exists, and therefore sector-by-sector evaluation may be necessary.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Ariel 6 measurements of ultra-heavy cosmic ray fluxes in the region Z or = 48

For this re-analysis of the Ariel VI data, the contribution of non Z square effects to the restricted energy loss and to Cerenkov radiation in the Bristol sphere has been evaluated using the Mott cross section ratios and the non-relativistic Bloch correction. Results obtained were similar in form to those derived for HEAO3 but with maximum deviations approximately 10% rather than 15% for the Mott term, corresponding to a thinner detector. Because of the large uncertainties in the parameters involved, no relativistic Bloch term was included. In addition the experiments on the HEAO detector make the application of a correction to the Cerenkov response of doubtful justification and none was applied in this analysis. An energy dependent correction was made using an effective energy calculated from the vertical cut-off for a given event. The maximum value of this correction was about 0.6% in Z for low cut-offs, declining to approximately zero by 10 GV.

Fowler, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1986

An analysis on the shapes of ultraviolet extinction curves. I - The 2175 A bump

IUE data are used to investigate the properties of the 2175 A interstellar extinction bump toward 45 reddened Milky Way stars. Using analytic fitting functions, parameters are derived which describe the central position, FWHM, and strength of the bump. The bump position is very stable, with an extreme deviation which is still significantly larger than the measurement uncertainty, indicating true variability. The bump FWHM has a large range of intrinsic values, 0.77/micron to 1.25/micron. The normalized bump strength varies by more than a factor of three. There are no convincing correlations among the three bump parameters, but the width of the bump is strongly correlated with the dust grain environments. Dense quiescent regions yield broad bumps, while diffuse interstellar medium and regions of recent star formation yield narrower bumps. The absence of any correlation between bump width and central position argues strongly against graphite grains in the size range prescribed by the Mathis, Rumpl, and Nordsieck (1977) model as carriers of the bump.

Fitzpatrick, E. L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Cryogenic wind tunnels. I

The basic principles of cryogenic wind-tunnel operation are presented, and a typical cryogenic wind tunnel is described. Low-speed cryogenic wind tunnels are considered, along with some experiments conducted in these tunnels. Focus is placed on real-gas effects including condensation and thermal and caloric imperfections. The operating limits set by the saturation boundaries of nitrogen and air are analyzed, and the consequences of thermal and caloric imperfections on both isentropic and normal-shock flow in nitrogen are considered. The extension of analytical real-gas studies, including both laminar and turbulent boundary layers is covered. It is concluded that the deviation of the nitrogen boundary-layer parameters from their ideal-gas values are small, and that large real-gas effects will not be a factor in cryogenic tunnel simulation of the complex flows met in flight.

Kilgore, Robert A.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Winds at the Mars 2020 Landing Site. 2. Wind Variability and Turbulence

Wind speeds measured by the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover in Jezero crater were fitted as a Weibull distribution. InSight wind data acquired in Elysium Planitia were also used to contextualize observations. Jezero winds were found to be much calmer on average than in previous landing sites, despite the intense aeolian activity observed. However, a great influence of turbulence and wave activity was observed in the wind speed variations, thus driving the probability of reaching the highest wind speeds at Jezero, instead of sustained winds driven by local, regional, or large-scale circulation. The power spectral density of wind speed fluctuations follows a power-law, whose slope deviates depending on the time of day from that predicted considering homogeneous and isotropic turbulence. Daytime wave activity is related to convection cells and smaller eddies in the boundary layer, advected over the crater. The signature of convection cells was also found during dust storm conditions, when prevailing winds were consistent with a tidal drive. Nighttime fluctuations were also intense, suggesting strong mechanical turbulence. Convective vortices were usually involved in rapid wind fluctuations and extreme winds, with variations peaking at 9.2 times the background winds. Transient high wind events by vortex-passages, turbulence, and wave activity could be driving aeolian activity at Jezero. We report the detection of a strong dust cloud of 0.75–1.5 km in length passing over the rover. The observed aeolian activity had major implications for instrumentation, with the wind sensor suffering damage throughout the mission, probably due to flying debris advected by winds.

D. Viúdez-moreiras↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evidence for the Higgs Boson Decay to a $Z$ Boson and a Photon at the LHC

The first evidence for the Higgs boson decay to a Z boson and a photon is presented, with a statistical significance of 3.4 standard deviations. The result is derived from a combined analysis of the searches performed by the ATLAS and CMS Collaborations with proton-proton collision datasets collected at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) from 2015 to 2018. These correspond to integrated luminosities of around 140 fb –1 for each experiment, at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The measured signal yield is 2.2 ± 0.7 times the standard model prediction, and agrees with the theoretical expectation within 1.9 standard deviations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven picosecond X-ray imaging for quantitative plasma-induced shock characterization

Imaging dynamic events, especially shockwave behavior, is key to advancing high-energy-density (HED) research. Recent advances in fourth- and fifth-generation X-ray light sources allow for high-resolution imaging of fast phenomena, but limited beam time necessitates maximizing data acquisition. We present a benchtop-scale pulsed plasma device submerged in liquid heptane, capable of generating dynamic events at rates exceeding 10 Hz, supporting the field’s data-driven goals by producing large, high-quality imaging datasets. Using X-ray phase contrast imaging (XPCI) at the Advanced Photon Source, we imaged weak shockwaves (Mach ~ 1.2) in heptane interacting with plasma-induced cavitation bubbles, causing deviation from Rankine-Hugoniot behavior; to our knowledge, this represents the first direct imaging of such interaction. Our quantitative analysis offers insight into weak shock phenomena and energy-focusing applications in pulsed plasmas. These results highlight the potential for large datasets to advance dynamic HED research at current light source facilities, and have implications for fields such as inertial confinement fusion, plasma-enhanced chemical processing, and biomedical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

ForestFlow: predicting the Lyman-α forest clustering from linear to nonlinear scales

On large scales, the Lyman-α forest provides insights into the expansion history of the Universe, while on small scales, it imposes strict constraints on the growth history, the nature of dark matter, and the sum of neutrino masses. This work introduces ForestFlow, a novel framework that bridges the gap between large- and small-scale analyses, which have traditionally relied on distinct modeling approaches. Using conditional normalizing flows, ForestFlow predicts the two Lyman-α linear biases (b δ and b η ) and six parameters describing small-scale deviations of the three-dimensional flux power spectrum (P 3D ) from linear theory as a function of cosmology and intergalactic medium physics. These are then combined with a Boltzmann solver to make consistent predictions, from arbitrarily large scales down to the nonlinear regime, for P 3D and any other statistics derived from it. Trained on a suite of 30 fixed-and-paired cosmological hydrodynamical simulations spanning redshifts from z = 2 to 4.5, ForestFlow achieves 3 and 1.5% precision in describing P 3D and the one-dimensional flux power spectrum (P 1D ) from linear scales to k = 5 Mpc −1 and k ∥ = 4 Mpc −1 , respectively. Thanks to its conditional parameterization, ForestFlow shows similar performance for ionization histories and two ΛCDM model extensions – massive neutrinos and curvature – even though none of these are included in the training set. This framework will enable full-scale cosmological analyses of Lyman-α forest measurements from the DESI survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Search for pair production of heavy vector-like quarks decaying to high- p T W bosons and b quarks in the lepton-plus-jets final state in pp collisions at $ \sqrt{s}=13 $ TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for the pair production of heavy vector-like T quarks, primarily targeting the T quark decays to a W boson and a b-quark. The search is based on 36.1 fb –1 of pp collisions at √s=13 TeV recorded in 2015 and 2016 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Data are analysed in the lepton-plus-jets final state, including at least one b-tagged jet and a large-radius jet identified as originating from the hadronic decay of a high-momentum W boson. No significant deviation from the Standard Model expectation is observed in the reconstructed T mass distribution. The observed 95% confidence level lower limit on the T mass are 1350 GeV assuming 100% branching ratio to Wb. In the SU(2) singlet scenario, the lower mass limit is 1170 GeV. This search is also sensitive to a heavy vector-like B quark decaying to Wt and other final states. The results are thus reinterpreted to provide a 95% confidence level lower limit on the B quark mass at 1250 GeV assuming 100% branching ratio to Wt; in the SU(2) singlet scenario, the limit is 1080 GeV. Mass limits on both T and B production are also set as a function of the decay branching ratios. In conclusion, the 100% branching ratio limits are found to be applicable to heavy vector-like Y and X production that decay to Wb and Wt, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Numerical and experimental investigation of the geometry dependent layer-wise evolution of temperature during laser powder bed fusion of Ti–6Al–4V

Abstract Laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) is currently the additive manufacturing process with the widest industrial use for metal parts. Yet some hurdles persist on the way to a widespread industrial serial production, with reproducibility of the process and the resulting part properties being a major concern. As the geometry changes, so do the local boundary conditions for heat dissipation. Consequently, the use of global, geometry-independent processing parameters, which are today’s state of the art, may result in varying part properties or even defects. This paper presents a numerical simulation as a method to predict the geometry-dependent temperature evolution during the build. For demonstration, an overhang structure with varying angles towards the build platform was manufactured using Ti–6Al–4V. A calibrated infrared camera was integrated into a commercial L-PBF system to measure the temperature evolution over time for a total build height of 10 mm, and the results are used for validation of the simulation. It is shown that the simulation is capable of predicting the temperature between layers. The deviations between simulation and measurement remain in single digit range for smaller overhang structures (90°, 60° and 45°). For large overhang structures (30°), the simulation tends to over-predict the temperatures up to 15 °C. Experiments with varying process parameters showed the feasibility of energy reduction as compensation of the heat accumulation produced by overhang structures.

Li, Gefei (ORCID:0000000174837952)↗

DOE OSTI2017

Cs 1– x Rb x PbCl 3 and Cs 1– x Rb x PbBr 3 Solid Solutions: Understanding Octahedral Tilting in Lead Halide Perovskites

The structures of the lead halide perovskites CsPbCl3 and CsPbBr3 have been determined from X-ray powder diffraction data to be orthorhombic with Pnma space group symmetry. Their structures are distorted from the cubic structure of their hybrid analogs, CH3NH3PbX3 (X = Cl, Br), by tilts of the octahedra (Glazer tilt system a–b+a–). Substitution of the smaller Rb+ for Cs+ increases the octahedral tilting distortion and eventually destabilizes the perovskite structure altogether. To understand this behavior, bond valence parameters appropriate for use in chloride and bromide perovskites have been determined for Cs+, Rb+, and Pb2+. As the tolerance factor decreases, the band gap increases, by 0.15 eV in Cs1–xRbxPbCl3 and 0.20 eV in Cs1–xRbxPbBr3, upon going from x = 0 to x = 0.6. The band gap shows a linear dependence on tolerance factor, particularly for the Cs1–xRbxPbBr3 system. Comparison with the cubic perovskites CH3NH3PbCl3 and CH3NH3PbBr3 shows that the band gaps of the methylammonium perovskites are anomalously large for APbX3 perovskites with a cubic structure. This comparison suggests that the local symmetry of CH3NH3PbCl3 and CH3NH3PbBr3 deviate significantly from the cubic symmetry of the average structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Search for the Chiral Magnetic Effect via Charge-Dependent Azimuthal Correlations Relative to Spectator and Participant Planes in Au + Au Collisions at s N N = 200 GeV

The chiral magnetic effect (CME) refers to charge separation along a strong magnetic field due to imbalanced chirality of quarks in local parity and charge-parity violating domains in quantum chromodynamics. The experimental measurement of the charge separation is made difficult by the presence of a major background from elliptic azimuthal anisotropy. This background and the CME signal have different sensitivities to the spectator and participant planes, and could thus be determined by measurements with respect to these planes. We report such measurements in Au+Au collisions at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 200 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider. It is found that the charge separation, with the flow background removed, is consistent with zero in peripheral (large impact parameter) collisions. Some indication of finite CME signals is seen with a significance of 1–3 standard deviations in mid-central (intermediate impact parameter) collisions. Furthermore, significant residual background effects may, however, still be present.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-272: Direct Verification of a Treatment Planning System Megavoltage Linac Beam Photon Spectra Models, and Analysis of the Effects On Patient Plans

Purpose: For the photon dose calculation Philips Pinnacle Treatment Planning System (TPS) uses collapsed cone convolution algorithm, which relies on energy spectrum of the beam in computing the scatter component. The spectrum is modeled based on Linac’s standard commissioning data and typically is not independently verified. We explored a methodology of using transmission measurements in combination with regularization data processing to unfold Linac spectra. The measured spectra were compared to those modeled by the TPS, and the effect on patient plans was evaluated. Methods: Transmission measurements were conducted in narrow-beam geometry using a standard Farmer ionization chamber. Two attenuating materials and two build -up caps, having different atomic numbers, served to enhance discrimination between absorption of low and high-energy portions of the spectra, thus improving the accuracy of the results. The data was analyzed using a regularization technique implemented through spreadsheet-based calculations. Results: The unfolded spectra were found to deviate from the TPS beam models. The effect of such deviations on treatment planning was evaluated for patient plans through dose distribution calculations with either TPS modeled or measured energy spectra. The differences were reviewed through comparison of isodose distributions, and quantified based on maximum dose values for critical structures. While in most cases no drastic differences in the calculated doses were observed, plans with deviations of 4 to 8% in the maximum dose values for critical structures were discovered. The anatomical sites with large scatter contributions are the most vulnerable to inaccuracies in the modeled spectrum. Conclusion: An independent check of the TPS model spectrum is highly desirable and should be included as part of commissioning of a new Linac. The effect is particularly important for dose calculations in high heterogeneity regions. The developed approach makes acquisition of megavoltage Linac beam spectra achievable in a typical radiation oncology clinic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-F-BRD-13: A Phenomenological Relative Biological Effectiveness (RBE) Model for Proton Therapy Based On All Published in Vitro Cell Survival Data

Purpose: Proton therapy treatments are currently planned and delivered using the assumption that the proton relative biological effectiveness (RBE) relative to photons is 1.1. This assumption ignores strong experimental evidence that suggests the RBE varies. A recent review study (Paganetti 2014), collected over 72 experimental reports on proton RBE, providing a comprehensive dataset for predicting proton RBE. Using this dataset we develop a model to predict RBE based on dose, linear energy transfer (LET) and the tissue specific parameter (α/β)x. Methods: The relationship of the RBE on dose, dose average LET (LETd) and (α/β)x was explored using 290 experimental data points. The RBE was calculated for each experimental point for doses ranging from 1 to 10 Gy. An RBE model, based on the linear-quadratic model, was derived using a nonlinear regression fit to the experimental data. Results: The proposed RBE model predicts that the RBE increases with LET and decreases with (α/β)x. The model additionally predicts a decrease in RBE with increasing dose for low (α/β)x values (< 3 Gy). However the model predicts an increase in RBE with increasing dose for large (α/β)x (> 4 Gy). Previous phenomenological models were based on a small subset of experimental data and deviate significantly from our findings. Conclusion: The proposed RBE model is derived using the most comprehensive collection of proton RBE experimental data to date. The model agrees with previous theoretical predictions on the relationship between RBE, LETd and (α/β)x and also makes predictions on the relationship between RBE and dose. The proposed model shows a relationship between α and LETd but no significant relationship between β and LETd. Previously published phenomenological models based on a limited data set might have to be revised.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

TH-EF-BRB-06: Implementation of a Modulated-Arc Total Body Irradiation (TBI) Technique Using the RayStation Treatment Planning System

Purpose: To develop a clinical workflow for delivering a modulated-arc total body irradiation (TBI) with RayStation scripting. This technique uses arc fields with the patient lying at floor level on a padded table and is validated through measurements taken on a custom-made TBI phantom. Methods: Treatment planning was performed for a retrospective cohort of eight patients with a diverse range of heights and body types. Each was replanned using an open-field dual arc method, with the patient in supine and prone positions on the floor of the vault. All plans were optimized using Raystation Planning 4.7.2.5 (RaySearch Laboratories, Stockholm, Sweden), with 200 cGy prescribed to the 95% of the body contour − 5mm. This results in an open-field beam that sweeps craniocaudally across the length of the patient. The technique is validated with measurements at 10 cm intervals in a custom-milled, 5 cm thick acrylic phantom. A centrally located CC13 ion chamber and a Mobile MOSFET (Best Medical Canada, Ottawa, ON) detector array were used to measure dose. Supine and prone arcs for each patient were consecutively delivered, and the aggregate dose at each point was compared to the planned dose calculated in the phantom. Results: The ion chamber measurements differed from the planned dose by an average of .5%, with a standard deviation of 2.1%. All measured data for the MOSFETS were within 10% of the corresponding planned dose except for two outlying points. The standard deviation of dose differences across the entire cohort was 4.0%. Most significant discrepancies occurred either in inhomogeneous regions with large gradients, or at inferior points where beam angle was steepest. Conclusion: We have confirmed that the planned dose is well matched to our measurements within 10% for this method of planning and delivery. We are currently incorporating this technique into our clinical workflow. This work is supported by RaySearch.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Tests of neutrino interaction models with the MicroBooNE detector

I measure a large set of observables in inclusive charged current muon neutrino scattering on argon with the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber operating at Fermilab. I evaluate three neutrino interaction models based on the widely used GENIE event generator using these observables. The measurement uses a data set consisting of neutrino interactions with a final state muon candidate fully contained within the MicroBooNE detector. These data were collected in 2016 with the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam, which has an average neutrino energy of $800$ MeV, using an exposure corresponding to $5.0\times10^{19}$ protons-on-target. The analysis employs fully automatic event selection and charged particle track reconstruction and uses a data-driven technique to separate neutrino interactions from cosmic ray background events. I find that GENIE models consistently describe the shapes of a large number of kinematic distributions for fixed observed multiplicity, but I show an indication that the observed multiplicity fractions deviate from GENIE expectations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

SPECKLE INTERFEROMETRY OF SECONDARY COMPONENTS IN NEARBY VISUAL BINARIES

Statistical characterization of secondary subsystems in binaries helps to distinguish between various scenarios of multiple-star formation. The Differential Speckle Survey Instrument was used at the Gemini-N telescope for several hours in 2015 July to probe the binarity of 25 secondary components in nearby solar-type binaries. Six new subsystems were resolved, with meaningful detection limits for the remaining targets. The large incidence of secondary subsystems agrees with other similar studies. The newly resolved subsystem HIP 115417 Ba,Bb causes deviations in the observed motion of the outer binary from which an astrometric orbit of Ba,Bb with a period of 117 years is deduced.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1978

Effect of wind turbulence and shear on landing performance of jet transports

Computer simulations of a Boeing 727 class aircraft landing in turbulence were developed by programming the longitudinal aircraft equations of motion into a digital computer with various input values of vertical and horizontal wind speeds. Turbulent wind data was fed to the computer in one-second intervals. The computer computed in one-second intervals the aircraft speed, altitude, horizontal distance traveled, rate-of-descent, pitch attitude, glide path angle (from edge of runway) and elevator angle. All computer runs were made in the 'stick-fixed' mode. The RMS values of altitude and velocity perturbations (from equilibrium) were found to be large when horizontal wind gusts had sinusoidal components at or near the phugoid (long period) frequency. Maximum RMS altitude deviations occurred when the vertical wind had sinusoidal components which were 1/10 to 1/5 of the phugoid frequency. When real wind data (obtained from NCAR Queen Air) were used as input winds good correlations were found to exist between RMS velocity perturbations and both horizontal and vertical wind shears.

Blick, E. F.↗