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At least 703 records · Page 39

The Relative Importance of Assumed Infrasound Source Terms and Effects of Atmospheric Models on the Linear Inversion of Infrasound Time Series at the Source Physics Experiment

We invert far-field infrasound data for the equivalent seismoacoustic time-domain moment tensor to assess the effects of variable atmospheric models and source phenomena. The infrasound data were produced by a series of underground chemical explosions that were conducted during the Source Physics Experiment (SPE), which was originally designed to study seismoacoustic signal phenomena. The first goal is to investigate the sensitivity of the inversion to the variability of the estimated atmospheric model. The second goal is to determine the relative contribution of two presumed source mechanisms to the observed infrasonic wavefield. Rather than using actual atmospheric observations to estimate the necessary atmospheric Green’s functions, we build a series of atmospheric models that rely on publicly available, regional-scale atmospheric observations. The atmospheric observations are summarized and interpolated onto a 3D grid to produce a model of sound speed at the time of the experiment. For each of four SPE acoustic datasets that we invert, we produced a suite of three atmospheric models for each chemical explosion event, based on 10 yrs of meteorological data: an average model, which averages the atmospheric conditions for 10 yrs prior to each SPE event, as well as two extrema models. To parameterize the inversion, we assume that the source of infrasonic energy results from the linear combination of explosion-induced surface spall and linear seismic-to-elastic mode conversion at the Earth’s free surface. We find that the inversion yields relatively repeatable results for the estimated spall source. Conversely, the estimated isotropic explosion source is highly variable. This suggests that 1) the majority of the observed acoustic energy is produced by the spall and/or 2) our modeling of the elastic energy, and the subsequent conversion to acoustic energy, is too simplistic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Power availability at terrestrial receptor sites for laser-power transmission from the satellite power system

A statistical model was developed for relating the temporal transmission parameters of a laser beam from a solar power satellite to observable meteorological data to determine the influence of weather on power reception at the earth-based receiver. Sites within 100 miles of existing high voltage transmission lines were examined and the model was developed for clear-sky and clouded conditions. The cases of total transmission through clouds at certain wavelengths, no transmission, and partial transmission were calculated for the cloud portion of the model. The study covered cirriform, stratiform, cumiliform, and mixed type clouds and the possibility of boring holes through the clouds with the beam. Utilization of weapons-quality beams for hole boring, was found to yield power availability increases of 9-33%, although no beneficial effects could be predicted in regions of persistent cloud cover. An efficiency of 80% was determined as possible if several receptor sites were available within 200-300 miles of each other, thereby allowing changes of reception point in cases of unacceptable meteorological conditions.

Beverly, R. E., III↗

Spatial controls of methane uptake in upland soils across climatic and geological regions in Greenland

Abstract In the Arctic, the spatiotemporal variation of net methane uptake in upland soils depends on unresolved interactive controls between edaphic and microbial factors not yet included in current models, underpinning the uncertainty of upscaling the Arctic methane budget. Here we show that upland soils in Greenland are consistent methane sinks (−1.83 ± 0.19 nmol methane g −1 dw d −1 ) across a N-S (64–83 °N) pedoclimatic transect. We demonstrate that methane oxidizers abundance, soil pH, and available soil copper are important controls on the spatial variation in methane oxidation. We revised a soil biogeochemical model with a high-resolution land classification and meteorological data for Greenland and tested it against our methane uptake measurements. The model simulated well the magnitudes of observed methane uptake but not the spatial variation across all sites. This work provides novel insights into the controls of methane uptake, which are critical for the accuracy of methane budgets.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Greenhouse Gas Source Attribution: Measurements Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification

In this project we have developed atmospheric measurement capabilities and a suite of atmospheric modeling and analysis tools that are well suited for verifying emissions of green- house gases (GHGs) on an urban-through-regional scale. We have for the first time applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate atmospheric CO 2 . This will allow for the examination of regional-scale transport and distribution of CO 2 along with air pollutants traditionally studied using CMAQ at relatively high spatial and temporal resolution with the goal of leveraging emissions verification efforts for both air quality and climate. We have developed a bias-enhanced Bayesian inference approach that can remedy the well-known problem of transport model errors in atmospheric CO 2 inversions. We have tested the approach using data and model outputs from the TransCom3 global CO 2 inversion comparison project. We have also performed two prototyping studies on inversion approaches in the generalized convection-diffusion context. One of these studies employed Polynomial Chaos Expansion to accelerate the evaluation of a regional transport model and enable efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior for Bayesian inference. The other approach uses de- terministic inversion of a convection-diffusion-reaction system in the presence of uncertainty. These approaches should, in principle, be applicable to realistic atmospheric problems with moderate adaptation. We outline a regional greenhouse gas source inference system that integrates (1) two ap- proaches of atmospheric dispersion simulation and (2) a class of Bayesian inference and un- certainty quantification algorithms. We use two different and complementary approaches to simulate atmospheric dispersion. Specifically, we use a Eulerian chemical transport model CMAQ and a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model - FLEXPART-WRF. These two models share the same WRF assimilated meteorology fields, making it possible to perform a hybrid simulation, in which the Eulerian model (CMAQ) can be used to compute the initial condi- tion needed by the Lagrangian model, while the source-receptor relationships for a large state vector can be efficiently computed using the Lagrangian model in its backward mode. In ad- dition, CMAQ has a complete treatment of atmospheric chemistry of a suite of traditional air pollutants, many of which could help attribute GHGs from different sources. The inference of emissions sources using atmospheric observations is cast as a Bayesian model calibration problem, which is solved using a variety of Bayesian techniques, such as the bias-enhanced Bayesian inference algorithm, which accounts for the intrinsic model deficiency, Polynomial Chaos Expansion to accelerate model evaluation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, and Karhunen-Lo %60 eve (KL) Expansion to reduce the dimensionality of the state space. We have established an atmospheric measurement site in Livermore, CA and are collect- ing continuous measurements of CO 2 , CH 4 and other species that are typically co-emitted with these GHGs. Measurements of co-emitted species can assist in attributing the GHGs to different emissions sectors. Automatic calibrations using traceable standards are performed routinely for the gas-phase measurements. We are also collecting standard meteorological data at the Livermore site as well as planetary boundary height measurements using a ceilometer. The location of the measurement site is well suited to sample air transported between the San Francisco Bay area and the California Central Valley.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Changes in the Pasterze and the Kleines Fleisskees Glaciers, Austria, as Measured from the Ground and Space

The tongue of the Pasterze Glacier in the eastern Alps of Austria receded more than 1152 m from 1880 to 2001. Landsat and Ikonos satellite data from 1976 to 2001, topographic maps beginning in 1893 and ground measurements were studied. Results show that though satellite images significantly underestimate the width of the Pasterze Glacier tongue due to the presence of morainal material on the surface, they provide an excellent way to measure the recession of the exposed-ice part of the glacier tongue. The rate of change of the terminus as determined using satellite data is found to compare well with ground measurements. Between 1976 and 2001, Landsat-derived measurements show a recession of the terminus of the Pasterze Glacier of 479+/-113 m (at an average rate of 18.4 m a(exp -1) while measurements from the ground showed a recession of 428 m (at an average recession of 17.1 m a(exp -1). Ikonos satellite images from 2000 and 2001 reveal changes in the exposed ice part of the Pasterze tongue, and a decrease in area of the exposed ice part of the tongue of 22,096 sq m. GPS points and a ground survey of the glacier terminus in August 2001 were plotted on a 1-m resolution Ikonos image, and showed the actual terminus shape and location. The nearby Kleines Fleisskees glacier lost 30% of its area between 1984 and 2001, and the area of exposed ice increased by 0.44 sq km, according to Landsat satellite measurements. Recession of both the Pasterze and the Kleines Fleisskees corresponds generally to temperature and precipitation trends, especially increasing summer temperatures, as determined from meteorological data acquired from the Sonnblick Observatory, however the smaller the Kleines FleiSkees reacts more quickly to climate changes than does the Pasterze Glacier.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Results of the Updated NASA Kennedy Space Center 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler Operational Acceptance Test

We present here the methodology and results of the Operational Acceptance Test (OAT) performed on the new Kennedy Space Center (KSC) 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (DRWP). On day-of-launch (DOL), space launch vehicle operators have used data from the DRWP to invalidate winds in prelaunch loads and trajectory assessments due to the DRWP's capability to quickly identify changes in the wind profile within a rapidly-changing wind environment. The previous DRWP has been replaced with a completely new system, which needs to undergo certification testing before being accepted for use in range operations. The new DRWP replaces the previous three-beam system made of coaxial cables and a copper wire ground plane with a four-beam system that uses Yagi antennae with enhanced beam steering capability. In addition, the new system contains updated user interface software while maintaining the same general capability as the previous system. The new DRWP continues to use the Median Filter First Guess (MFFG) algorithm to generate a wind profile from Doppler spectra at each range gate. DeTect (2015) contains further details on the upgrade. The OAT is a short-term test designed so that end users can utilize the new DRWP in a similar manner to the previous DRWP during mission operations at the Eastern Range in the midst of a long-term certification process. This paper describes the Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch's (MSFC NE's) analyses to verify the quality and accuracy of the DRWP's meteorological data output as compared to the previous DRWP. Ultimately, each launch vehicle program has the responsibility to certify the system for their own use.

Barbre', Robert E., Jr.↗

A hybrid wavelet de-noising and Rank-Set Pair Analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series

Highlights: • A new hybrid approach is proposed to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. • Rank-Set Pair Analysis combined with wavelet de-noising markedly improves forecasting accuracy. • The performance of the proposed approach proves best among its present competitors even when the extreme value occurs. Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, wavelet de-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. Compared to three other generic methods, the results generated by WD-REPA model presented invariably smaller error measures which means the forecasting capability of the WD-REPA model is better than other models. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of DUSTRAN Software System for Modeling Chloride Deposition on Steel Canisters

The degradation of steel by stress corrosion cracking (SCC) when exposed to atmospheric conditions for decades is a significant challenge in the fossil fuel and nuclear industries. SCC can occur when corrosive contaminants such as chlorides are deposited on a susceptible material in a tensile stress state. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has identified chloride-induced SCC as a potential cause for concern in stainless steel used nuclear fuel (UNF) canisters in dry storage. The modeling of contaminant deposition is the first step in predictive multiscale modeling of SCC that is essential to develop mitigation strategies, prioritize inspection, and ensure the integrity and performance of canisters, pipelines, and structural materials. A multiscale simulation approach can be developed to determine the likelihood that a canister would undergo SCC in a certain period of time. This study investigates the potential of DUSTRAN, a dust dispersion modeling system developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, to model the deposition of chloride contaminants from sea salt aerosols on a steel canister. Results from DUSTRAN simulations run with historical meteorological data were compared against measured chloride data at a coastal site in Maine. DUSTRAN’s CALPUFF model tended to simulate concentrations higher than those measured; however, the closest estimations were within the same order of magnitude as the measured values. The decrease in discrepancies between measured and simulated values as the level of abstraction in wind speed decreased suggest that the model is very sensitive to wind speed. However, the influence of other parameters such as the distinction between open-ocean and surf-zone sources needs to be explored further. Deposition values predicted by the DUSTRAN system were not in agreement with concentration values and suggest that the deposition calculations may not fully represent physical processes. Overall, results indicate that with parameter refinement, DUSTRAN has the potential to simulate atmospheric chloride dispersion on steel canisters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Conifer water use patterns in the East River Watershed, Colorado US, based on stable water isotopes and cellulose isotopes

This data package contains a series of datasets aimed at understanding the seasonal origins of water used by the dominant conifer species, Abies lasiocarpa and Picea engelmannii, in the East River Watershed. There is a distinct difference in the stable isotopic ratio of summer rain and snowpack and thus by tracking the isotopic ratio of the xylem water in trees, it is possible to separate when a tree is using snow vs. summer rain. Following typical protocols, we sampled and extracted water from soils in the "Research Meadow" near Gothic, CO within the East River Watershed through the 2016 growing season. The stable isotopic ratio of these waters were then measured. Using values of the isotopic ratio of precipitation and snowpack from that season, we develop a mixing model to show how the trees transitioned from use of snowpack to summer in late July. We extended the information on the seasonal origins of water from 2016 back until 1980 by using measurements of the isotopic ratio of cellulose from trees in the Research Meadow. The isotopic ratio of tree ring cellulose records a signal both of the Vapor Pressure Deficit at the leaf-atmosphere boundary and also the source water for the trees. We concluded from this extended analysis that the trees underwent transitions between periods where snow was the dominant water source and summer rain was the dominant water source. More details on this analysis can be found in the publication: Persistence and Plasticity in Conifer Water Use Strategies. JGR Biogeoscience. DOI 10.1029/2018JG004845. The dataset specifically includes stable isotope measurements of xylem and soil water for Spruce and Fir trees at the Rocky Mountain Biological Lab's Research Meadow as well as snowpack and precipitation stable isotopes from nearby National Atmospheric Deposition Program sites. Associated meteorological data is included, which is needed to understand the source water for the trees based on the cellulose measurements.This dataset was updated in June 2021 also include intra-ring measurements of the d18O and d13C of cellulose these same species of trees at the Ziegler Reservoir site in Snowmass, CO. These are listed as files: "Interglaciald18OCellulose.csv", "Interglaciald13OCellulose.csv" and "Modernd13CCellulose.csv". The intent of these measurements was to assess whether common conifers (abies and picea) had undergone ecophysiological or ecohydrological changes during the last period in Earth's history was warmer than today, i.e. the last Interglacial (116,000 to 130,000 years ago). This site was chosen because it is a location where subfossil wood from this critical warm period was discovered. We measured the d18O and d13C of the subfossil trees following the same protocol as the modern samples which included chemical extraction of cellulose and isotope ratio mass spectrometry. We found that the trees showed little difference in water use efficiency but utilized more summer rain during the interglacial period. This analysis and detailed methods are provided in the following manuscript: Wetter summers mitigated temperature stress on Rocky Mountain forests during the last interglacial warm period which is in revision at GRL but is available as a preprint here: 10.1002/essoar.10506740.2

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tonopah Test Range Air Monitoring: CY2018 Meteorological, Radiological, and Wind Transported Particulate Observations

In 1963, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) (formerly the Atomic Energy Commission [AEC]), implemented Operation Roller Coaster on the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) and an adjacent area of the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR) (formerly the Nellis Air Force Range). This operation resulted in radionuclide-contaminated soils at the Double Tracks site and Clean Slate I, II, and III sites. This report documents observations made during ongoing monitoring of radiological, meteorological, and dust conditions at stations installed adjacent to the Clean Slate sites and at the TTR Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Range Operations Center (ROC). The primary objective of the monitoring effort is to support the DOE Environmental Management Nevada Program (EM NV) in the safe remediation of the environmental legacy of nuclear device development and testing by determining if wind blowing across the Clean Slate sites is transporting particles of radionuclide-contaminated soil beyond the physical and administrative boundaries of the sites, and to provide information for designing long-term monitoring of the sites. The monitoring program in 2018 included five stations. Station 400, located within TTR Area 3 and near the ROC, monitors conditions near the local workforce center. Stations 401 and 403 are located on the northern and southeastern perimeter fence lines, respectively, of the Clean Slate III site. Stations 404 and 405 are along the northern and eastern boundary fence, respectively, at Clean Slate II. The stations are generally downwind of the contaminated areas during either northwesterly or southerly winds, which are the predominant wind directions. The stations—which are similar in design to the Community Environmental Monitoring Program (CEMP) stations operating at locations surrounding the Nevada National Security Site and TTR—include meteorological instruments and continuous-flow, low-volume air samplers. Three pressurized ionization chambers for measuring gamma energy are in use at Stations 400, 401, and 403. Saltation sensors and saltation traps are deployed at the stations adjacent to the Clean Slate sites. Detailed meteorological data are recorded on data loggers, with periodic uploads via a satellite system to the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) at Desert Research Institute (DRI), to monitor instrument and site conditions. Air filter samples are collected every two weeks and the deposits in the saltation traps are collected when a sufficient sample mass for analysis has accumulated (generally a six- to eight-month interval). Monitoring at TTR in calendar year (CY) 2018 provided surveillance of both ambient conditions, and ground disturbance associated with remediation activities at Clean Slate II and III. The first half of CY2018 data from Stations 404 and 405 at Clean Slate II were collected during remediation activities at that site, and data collected during the final third of the year at Stations 401 and 403 at Clean Slate III coincided with remediation work at the site. Ambient conditions prevailed at Station 400 throughout the year. Dust transport by suspension and saltation is strongly dependent on wind speed. Concentrations of PM 10 (particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter ≤10 micrometers [μm], a size fraction of small particles that are suspended in the air and can be easily inhaled) remain low until winds exceed approximately 32 kilometers per hour (km/hr) (20 miles per hour [mph]). Saltation particle counts also increase above the same general threshold wind speed. Wind speeds in excess of 32 km/hr (20 mph) occur less than three percent of the time at the sites. Ground disturbing remediation activities were carried out at Clean Slate II from October 31, 2017, until July 26, 2018. Station 404 is located closest to the remediation area and is downwind of the area when winds are from the south. By late November, analysis of dust from the air sampler at Station 404 registered increases in plutonium-239+240 ( 239+240 Pu) concentrations. Peak plutonium concentrations, accompanied by elevated gross alpha concentrations and the detection of americium-241 ( 241 Am) by gamma spectroscopy, occurred between March and May 2018. During spring and early summer of 2018, elevated radionuclide concentrations were also measured in dust collected from the air sampler at Station 405, which is more than twice the distance from the remediation activity as Station 404. A minor but sustained increase in gross alpha concentration of suspended dust collected at Stations 400, 401, and 403 was also observed starting in May 2018 and continuing into August. Stations 401 and 403 are approximately 4.8 to 6.4 km (three to four miles) from Clean Slate II and Station 400 is approximately 13 km (eight miles) from that site. The radionuclide content of material that saltated into the passive Big Spring Number Eight (BSNE) traps during the Clean Slate II remediation period increased in both the traps facing toward and away from the fenced contamination area at Station 404, with the largest increases in concentration (almost five times the previous 239+240 Pu concentration) observed in the traps facing the fenced area. The radionuclide concentration in material in the trap facing away from the fence more than doubled from that measured in 2017. A similar increase was observed for the saltation trap facing away from the fenced area at Station 405, although no increase was observed for material captured in the trap facing the fenced area. Particles ranging in size from 50 to 500 µm generally move by saltation processes and are not expected to significantly contribute to dose for someone breathing in the standard respiratory zone for adult humans (1.5 to 1.7 m [4.9 to 5.6 ft] above ground level) because they are too large to be entrained in the air as suspended dust. Remediation activities at Clean Slate III began on September 5, 2018, and continued until a brief hiatus started on December 20, 2018. Although Station 401 is much closer to the remediation area than Station 403, the first increase in gross alpha and 239+240 Pu concentrations was noted in dust from filters collected at Station 403 in early November 2018. The highest radionuclide concentrations of 2018 at the Clean Slate III stations were recorded in air samples taken from Stations 401 and 403 in late December 2018 and these concentrations were comparable between the two station locations. Gamma rate data measured by the PICs was slightly higher than the annual average at Stations 401 and 403 after remediation activities began, but no single measurement was outside of the range observed in 2018 prior to remediation activities. No increase in radionuclide concentration was observed for the Clean Slate III remediation time period on air filters collected from the other stations. Radiological monitoring at Station 400—which is located at the ROC, and therefore the closest regularly staffed work location to the Clean Slate sites—recorded a higher mean gross alpha activity from dust collected on air sampler filters than in previous years. The individual biweekly air filters yielded measurements of gross alpha that were at or below the mean plus one standard deviation measured in CY2017, except for the period from April 25, 2018, through September 12, 2018. Nonetheless, gamma spectroscopy of all air filters from Station 400 identified only naturally occurring radionuclides, with no detection of americium-241 ( 241 Am) (which is used as an indicator of plutonium-241[ 241 Pu]). Alpha spectroscopy of selected air filters collected at Station 400 did not detect plutonium-238 ( 238 Pu) or 239+240 Pu above the analytical detection limit. Gross beta and gamma exposure rate data were comparable to data from regional CEMP stations. No saltation traps are deployed at Station 400. Considering the ambient monitoring periods during CY2018, the monitoring stations adjacent to the Clean Slate sites recorded above-background 238 Pu and 239+240 Pu concentrations (SNL, 1998; Turner et al., 2003) in samples collected by passive saltation traps and on selected air filters. These observations were consistent with previous years and indicated that radionuclide movement occurred under ambient conditions by processes of both saltation and suspension. The presence of radionuclides in all saltation traps, both upwind and downwind of the fenced contamination areas, was consistent with previous radiological survey results (EG&G, 1979) that show lower concentration radiologically contaminated material dispersed outside the fenced area. Although 239+240 Pu concentrations in the air filter samples were sometimes orders of magnitude higher than background, the concentrations were below risk-based action levels defined for an industrial area worker scenario (U.S. DOE, 2014). The interception of airborne dust with above-background radionuclide concentrations demonstrates that dispersal processes are continuing. Strong winds are the driver for both suspension and saltation of dust and soil. The recorded wind speed and PM10 during remediation activities at Clean Slate II and III identified discrete wind events lasting approximately five to eight hours each, which accounted for the greatest PM 10 concentrations at the monitoring stations. These events captured the effect of winds from the northwest and from the south. The observed differences in dust loading and radionuclide concentrations for the monitoring stations when they were either upwind or downwind of the contamination area identify the remediation area as a source of plutonium contaminated dust. The increase in concentration of radionuclides in airborne dust during the remediation activities, compared with measurements under previous ambient conditions (mean 239+240 Pu concentrations during remediation activities are approximately nine to 40 times higher compared to pre-remediation concentrations, depending on monitoring station), highlights the impact of land disturbance on wind-borne contaminant transport from the Clean Slate test areas. The meteorological and particulate matter monitoring indicated that conditions for wind-borne contaminant movement exist at the Clean Slate sites, and that transport of radionuclide-contaminated soil by both suspension and saltation occurred under ambient conditions and accelerated when the sites were disturbed. The 239+240 Pu alpha spectroscopy results indicated that airborne concentrations during remediation activities ranged from 2 × 10-16 to 380 × 10-16 µCi/ml. These results can be compared to the derived air concentration limit for 239 Pu of 6 × 10-11 µCi/ml for occupational workers contained in Code of Federal Regulations 10 CFR 835, Occupational Radiation Protection. Even though the air sampling results document an increase in concentration during remediation activities, the observed concentrations are less than 0.06 percent of the occupational limit. The Corrective Action Unit (CAU) closure strategy uses a risk-based approach, whereby acceptable contaminant concentrations are determined as a function of anticipated human exposure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Air pollution and emergency department visits for respiratory diseases: A multi-city case crossover study

Highlights: • Extensive research exists on the effects of ambient air pollution on respiratory diseases. • Emergency department visits for respiratory diseases increase after days with higher concentrations of air pollution. • Ambient pollution, even at low concentrations, appear to adversely affect the respiratory system. Increasing evidence suggests that ambient air pollution is a major risk factor for both acute and chronic respiratory disease exacerbations and emergencies. The objective of this study was to determine the association between ambient air pollutants and emergency department (ED) visits for respiratory conditions in nine districts across the province of Ontario in Canada. Health, air pollutant (PM{sub 2.5}, NO{sub 2}, O{sub 3}, and SO{sub 2}), and meteorological data were retrieved from April 2004 to December 2011. Respiratory diseases were categorized as: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, including bronchiectasis) and acute upper respiratory diseases. A case-crossover design was used to test the associations between ED visits and ambient air pollutants, stratified by sex and season. For COPD among males, positive results were observed for NO{sub 2} with lags of 3–6 days, for PM{sub 2.5} with lags 1–8, and for SO{sub 2} with lags of 4–8 days. For COPD among females, positive results were observed for O{sub 3} with lags 2–4 days, and for SO{sub 2} among lags of 3–6 days. For upper respiratory disease emergencies among males, positive results were observed for NO{sub 2} (lags 5–8 days), for O{sub 3}, (lags 0–6 days), PM{sub 2.5} (all lags), and SO{sub 2} (lag 8), and among females, positive results were observed for NO{sub 2} for lag 8 days, for O{sub 3}, PM{sub 2.5} among all lags. Our study provides evidence of the associations between short-term exposure to air pollution and increased risk of ED visits for upper and lower respiratory diseases in an environment where air pollutant concentrations are relatively low.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Temperature and Humidity on Seasonal Influenza in Tropical Areas: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama, 2008-2013

Background: The role of meteorological factors on influenza transmission in the tropics is less defined than in the temperate regions. We assessed the association between influenza activity and temperature, specific humidity and rainfall in 6 study areas that included 11 departments or provinces within 3 tropical Central American countries: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama. Method/ Findings: Logistic regression was used to model the weekly proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza positive samples during 2008 to 2013 (excluding pandemic year 2009). Meteorological data was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and the Global Land Data Assimilation System. We found that specific humidity was positively associated with influenza activity in El Salvador (Odds Ratio (OR) and 95% Confidence Interval of 1.18 (1.07-1.31) and 1.32 (1.08-1.63)) and Panama (OR = 1.44 (1.08-1.93) and 1.97 (1.34-2.93)), but negatively associated with influenza activity in Guatemala (OR = 0.72 (0.6-0.86) and 0.79 (0.69-0.91)). Temperature was negatively associated with influenza in El Salvador's west-central departments (OR = 0.80 (0.7-0.91)) whilst rainfall was positively associated with influenza in Guatemala's central departments (OR = 1.05 (1.01-1.09)) and Panama province (OR = 1.10 (1.05-1.14)). In 4 out of the 6 locations, specific humidity had the highest contribution to the model as compared to temperature and rainfall. The model performed best in estimating 2013 influenza activity in Panama and west-central El Salvador departments (correlation coefficients: 0.5-0.9). Conclusions/Significance: The findings highlighted the association between influenza activity and specific humidity in these 3 tropical countries. Positive association with humidity was found in El Salvador and Panama. Negative association was found in the more subtropical Guatemala, similar to temperate regions. Of all the study locations, Guatemala had annual mean temperature and specific humidity that were lower than the others.

Central America↗

VENTSAR V3.0: A Python GUI for Estimating Contaminant Concentrations on or Near Buildings Due to Building Effects and Plume Rise and For Calculating Inhalation and Plume Shine Doses

VENTSAR: Originated as VENTAX (Smith and Weber 1983) on the IBM Mainframe at the Savannah River Site (SRS) as a Fortran program. Updated to VENTSAR XL V1.0 (Simpkins 1997) as a spreadsheet version using macros created in Microsoft Excel. Later updated to VENTSAR XL V2.0 (Dixon 2018) as a spreadsheet executing a modified version of the original VENTAX Fortran code. Estimates contaminant concentrations on or near a building from a release at a nearby location. Calculates concentrations for a given meteorological exceedance probability or for a given stability and wind speed combination. Can model a single building with or without a penthouse on top or a ground location from either a stack or ground release. Plume rise can be considered. Contaminant releases can be chemical or radioactive with downwind concentrations determined at user-specified distances. Wind passing over and around buildings creates a complicated dispersion pattern. Air-intake vents may be located on building roofs or near the ground downwind of a release source. An estimation of pollutant concentrations on or near a structure is important in determining expected pollutant levels. Meteorological data are selected based on a specific area of the site. Fortran-based VENTAX able to make fast, complex mathematical calculations. Not user-friendly VENTSAR XL V1.0 no longer supported due to obsolete Excel macros. VENTSAR XL V2.0 an interim solution using an Excel spreadsheet to interface with the modified VENTAX Fortran code. Requires user to have Microsoft Excel. Not an intuitive interface for someone unfamiliar with VENTSAR. Does not perform dose calculations. VENTSAR V3.0 goal to combine the strengths of previous versions of VENTSAR into a single, powerful yet user-friendly program with a Graphical User Interface (GUI). Not dependent upon a specific program or plug-ins. Self-contained package to be used on any computer running Microsoft Windows. User-friendly, intuitive GUI created in Python for parameter input. Executes same modified VENTAX Fortran code as VENTSAR XL V2.0. Outputs formatted text file of completed calculations for easy review and dissemination. Performs inhalation and plume shine dose calculations for up to 11 user-selected nuclides from a nuclide dose factor library of almost 500 nuclides. 12 test cases were created for verification of V1.0 and V2.0. Same test cases run in V3.0 to verify correct performance. V3.0 produced similar results to V1.0. Confirmed GUI did not alter calculations in any way. Comparisons of the test case results confirm the V3.0 GUI does not influence the VENTSAR calculations. Simply passes same input parameters to VENTAX Fortran code for execution. Provides end user an easy-to-use, intuitive tool to quickly make building effect and plume rise calculations, as well as, inhalation and plume shine dose calculations. No experience with or working knowledge of Fortran, Excel, command line, or macros required. Self-contained package allows VENTSAR be deployed to any Windows computer without the need for specific programs or plug-ins.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Twentieth century dust lows and the weakening of the westerly winds over the Tibetan Plateau: Dust and the Westerlies over the TP

Understanding past atmospheric dust variability is necessary to put modern atmospheric dust into historical context and assess the impacts of dust on the climate. In Asia, meteorological data of atmospheric dust is temporally limited, beginning only in the 1950s. High-resolution ice cores provide the ideal archive for reconstructing pre-instrumental atmospheric dust concentrations. Using a ~500-year (1477-1982AD) annually resolved calcium (Ca) dust proxy from a Tibetan Plateau (TP) ice core, we demonstrate the lowest atmospheric dust concentrations in the past ~500 years during the latter 20th century. Declines in late 19th-20th century Ca concentrations significantly correspond with regional zonal wind trends from two reanalysis models, suggesting that the Ca record provides a proxy for the westerlies. Twentieth century warming and attendant atmospheric pressure reductions over northern Asia have potentially reduced temperature/pressure gradients resulting in lower zonal wind velocities and associated dust entrainment/transport in the past ~500 years over the TP.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The sensitivity of carbon exchanges in Great Plains grasslands to precipitation variability

Abstract In the Great Plains, grassland carbon dynamics differ across broad gradients of precipitation and temperature, yet finer‐scale variation in these variables may also affect grassland processes. Despite the importance of grasslands, there is little information on how fine‐scale relationships compare between them regionally. We compared grassland C exchanges, energy partitioning and precipitation variability in eight sites in the eastern and western Great Plains using eddy covariance and meteorological data. During our study, both eastern and western grasslands varied between an average net carbon sink and a net source. Eastern grasslands had a moderate vapor pressure deficit (VPD = 0.95 kPa) and high growing season gross primary productivity (GPP = 1010 ± 218 g C m −2 yr −1 ). Western grasslands had a growing season with higher VPD (1.43 kPa) and lower GPP (360 ± 127 g C m −2 yr −1 ). Western grasslands were sensitive to precipitation at daily timescales, whereas eastern grasslands were sensitive at monthly and seasonal timescales. Our results support the expectation that C exchanges in these grasslands differ as a result of varying precipitation regimes. Because eastern grasslands are less influenced by short‐term variability in rainfall than western grasslands, the effects of precipitation change are likely to be more predictable in eastern grasslands because the timescales of variability that must be resolved are relatively longer. We postulate increasing regional heterogeneity in grassland C exchanges in the Great Plains in coming decades.

Petrie, M. D.↗

Reconciling satellite aerosol optical thickness and surface fine particle mass through aerosol liquid water

Summertime aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over the southeast U.S. is sharply enhanced over wintertime values. This seasonal pattern is unique and of particular interest because temperatures there have not warmed over the past 100 years. Patterns in surface fine particle mass are inconsistent with satellite reported AOT. In this work, we attempt to reconcile the spatial and temporal distribution of AOT over the U.S. with particle mass measurements at the surface by examining trends in aerosol liquid water (ALW), a particle constituent that scatters radiation and affects satellite AOT but is removed in mass measurements at routine surface monitoring sites. Herein, we employ the thermodynamic model ISORROPIAv2.1 to estimate ALW mass concentrations at Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments sites using measured ion mass concentrations and North American Regional Reanalysis meteorological data. Excellent agreement between Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations AOT and estimated ALW provides a plausible explanation for the discrepancies in the geographical patterns of AOT and aerosol mass measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys: 2. Microtopography Determines How CO 2 and CH 4 Exchange Responds to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

Differences of surface elevation in arctic polygonal landforms cause spatial variation in soil water contents (θ), active layer depths (ALD), and thereby in CO 2 and CH 4 exchange. In this paper, we test hypotheses in ecosys for topographic controls on CO 2 and CH 4 exchange in trough, rim, and center features of low- and flat-centered polygons (LCP and FCP) against chamber and eddy covariance (EC) measurements during 2013 at Barrow, Alaska. Larger CO 2 influxes and CH 4 effluxes were measured with chambers and modeled with ecosys in LCPs than in FCPs and in lower features (troughs) than in higher (rims) within LCPs and FCPs. Spatially aggregated CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from ecosys were significantly correlated with EC flux measurements. Lower features were modeled as C sinks (52–56 g C m -2 yr -1 ) and CH 4 sources (4–6 g C m -2 yr -1 ), and higher features as near C neutral (-2–15 g C m -2 yr -1 ) and CH 4 neutral (0.0–0.1 g C m -2 yr -1 ). Much of the spatial and temporal variations in CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes were modeled from topographic effects on water and snow movement and thereby on θ, ALD, and soil O 2 concentrations. Model results forced with meteorological data from 1981 to 2015 indicated increasing net primary productivity in higher features and CH 4 emissions in some lower and higher features since 2008, attributed mostly to recent rises in precipitation. Finally, small-scale variation in surface elevation causes large spatial variation of greenhouse gas (GHG) exchanges and therefore should be considered in estimates of GHG exchange in polygonal landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ecophysiological variation of transpiration of pine forests: synthesis of new and published results

Canopy transpiration (E C ) is a large fraction of evapotranspiration, integrating physical and biological processes within the energy, water, and carbon cycles of forests. Quantifying E C is of both scientific and practical importance, providing information relevant to questions ranging from energy partitioning to ecosystem services, such as primary productivity and water yield. We estimated E C of four pine stands differing in age and growing on sandy soils. The stands consisted of two wide-ranging conifer species: Pinus taeda and Pinus sylvestris, in temperate and boreal zones, respectively. Combining results from these and published studies on all soil types, we derived an approach to estimate daily EC of pine forests, representing a wide range of conditions from 35° S to 64° N latitude. During the growing season and under moist soils, maximum daily E C (E Cm ) at day-length normalized vapor pressure deficit of 1 kPa (E Cm-ref ) increased by 0.55 ± 0.02 (mean ± SE) mm/d for each unit increase of leaf area index (L) up to L = ~5, showing no sign of saturation within this range of quickly rising mutual shading. The initial rise of E Cm with atmospheric demand was linearly related to E Cm -ref. Both relations were unaffected by soil type. Consistent with theoretical prediction, daily EC was sensitive to decreasing soil moisture at an earlier point of relative extractable water in loamy than sandy soils. Our finding facilitates the estimation of daily EC of wide-ranging pine forests using remotely sensed L and meteorological data. We advocate an assembly of worldwide sap flux database for further evaluation of this approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗