Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model Predictive Control”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Error analysis of a hybrid control drum worth model

This paper presents a perturbation-based model for control drum worth prediction which employs both physics-based and statistics-based components. Control drums, or control shims, are cylindrical in shape and span the axial length of the core. A portion of the cylinder is coated in neutron absorbing material and the drum can rotate to introduce the absorbing material to the body of the core to reduce reactivity. The model can be expensive to create due to the requirement for full-core Monte Carlo eigenvalue calculations. Therefore, it is important to analyze how the errors in Monte Carlo calculated k{sub eff} used for model training affect model performance. It was found that the error in predicted criticalities could average to 70 pcm in the most complex form of the model and 215 pcm in the simplest form of the model. Furthermore, it was found that the Monte Carlo uncertainty in quantities calculated with Serpent used to train the models had minimal impact on the error observed from the model. Lastly, one of the forms of the hybrid model could be trained in considerably less computational time if the Monte Carlo calculations were run to higher uncertainty in k{sub eff} with a small penalty to model performance.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Substance Use and Antisocial Personality on Neuroimaging-Based Machine Learning Prediction of Schizophrenia

Abstract Background and hypothesis Neuroimaging-based machine learning (ML) algorithms have the potential to aid the clinical diagnosis of schizophrenia. However, literature on the effect of prevalent comorbidities such as substance use disorder (SUD) and antisocial personality (ASPD) on these models’ performance has remained unexplored. We investigated whether the presence of SUD or ASPD affects the performance of neuroimaging-based ML models trained to discern patients with schizophrenia (SCH) from controls. Study design We trained an ML model on structural MRI data from public datasets to distinguish between SCH and controls (SCH = 347, controls = 341). We then investigated the model’s performance in two independent samples of individuals undergoing forensic psychiatric examination: sample 1 was used for sensitivity analysis to discern ASPD (N = 52) from SCH (N = 66), and sample 2 was used for specificity analysis to discern ASPD (N = 26) from controls (N = 25). Both samples included individuals with SUD. Study results In sample 1, 94.4% of SCH with comorbid ASPD and SUD were classified as SCH, followed by patients with SCH + SUD (78.8% classified as SCH) and patients with SCH (60.0% classified as SCH). The model failed to discern SCH without comorbidities from ASPD + SUD (AUC = 0.562, 95%CI = 0.400–0.723). In sample 2, the model’s specificity to predict controls was 84.0%. In both samples, about half of the ASPD + SUD were misclassified as SCH. Data-driven functional characterization revealed associations between the classification as SCH and cognition-related brain regions. Conclusion Altogether, ASPD and SUD appear to have effects on ML prediction performance, which potentially results from converging cognition-related brain abnormalities between SCH, ASPD, and SUD.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Preliminary Results on Process Modeling Tools for Determining Variability in Additively Manufactured Stainless Steel 316 Parts

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies program aims to accelerate the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced materials and manufacturing technologies to enable reliable and economical nuclear energy. However, the distinct characteristics of additive manufacturing (AM) materials, stemming from their unique processing history, microstructure, and properties, pose significant challenges for the qualification and certification of nuclear components. These challenges primarily arise from component-scale variations in microstructure and properties influenced by local process conditions and geometry, which affect thermal history, melt pool dynamics, and microstructure evolution. Computational modeling tools can play a crucial role in predicting and controlling this variability. This report presents preliminary results on process modeling tools designed to predict microstructure variability in additively manufactured stainless steel 316 parts. It details the software packages and physical modeling approaches employed to simulate an AM component within an automated process modeling workflow. Initial results are demonstrated through comparisons between predicted microstructures and experimental measurements across various representative processing conditions. The report concludes by discussing the challenges inherent in process modeling of AM components and outlines a plan for future development needs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Microstructure Prediction Capabilities for Powder Bed Fusion Stainless Steel 316

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies program aims to accelerate the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced materials and manufacturing technologies to enable reliable and economical nuclear energy. However, the characteristic process-structure-property relationships of additive manufacturing (AM) materials pose challenges for the qualification and certification of AM nuclear components. In particular, component-scale variations in microstructure and properties can be driven by localized changes in melt pool dynamics due to how process parameters interact with different part geometries. Computational modeling tools can play a crucial role in predicting and controlling this variability. This report presents final results on process modeling tools designed to predict microstructure variability in additively manufactured stainless steel 316 parts. It details the software packages and physical modeling approaches employed to simulate an AM component within an automated process modeling workflow. Results are demonstrated through comparisons between predicted microstructures and experimental measurements across various representative processing conditions. The report concludes by discussing identified challenges and future opportunities for connecting the developed simulation workflow with mechanics simulations for prediction of part performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved geophysical monitoring of carbon sequestration through parameter linkage to reservoir modeling

Predictive reservoir modeling, even if present in the form of only basic hydrogeological model assumptions, is expected to accompany the majority of carbon capture and sequestration monitoring activities. It thus represents a source of prior information about the migration of injected fluids that can benefit geophysical survey planning and ensuing monitoring. Constraining the imaging of geophysical monitoring data with reservoir modeling is preferable over standalone geophysical imaging because of additional complementary hydrogeological information. However, fully coupled hydrogeophysical data inversion for flow-modeling parameters that control saturation predictions is an involved process. Within the context of three-dimensional electromagnetic (EM) inversion of data from borehole-to-surface layouts, we employ a "poor people's" alternative. The approach constrains geophysical inversion parameters through saturation predictions. The coupling is realized through spatially variable lower and upper parameter bounds that scale with gas saturation magnitudes, the latter provided by reservoir modeling. In this work, enhancement of three-dimensional time-lapse plume EM imaging is demonstrated for simulated sequestration into a depleted gas reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forward and inverse predictive transient models of TREAT using surrogate reactivity models

In this work, we present two novel approaches for predicting the power evolution and control rod height of the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to support experiment modeling; specifically, transient analysis of the NASA-sponsored Sirius series of experiments. These approaches utilize steady-state Monte Carlo model, point kinetics model, and surrogate models to predict power evolution and control rod axial position during transient experiments. Both approaches were tested and validated against several Sirius experiments that were performed in the TREAT facility at different power levels. The validation test results show very good agreement with the experimental data, and the models were able to accurately predict the power evolution and the axial control rod position with an average error within 3.0%. Finally, this indicates that these approaches will help the reactor engineering team of the TREAT facility in preparing and predicting the power and temperature of the experiment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Building Operation Model (Morpheus) for Dallas Fort Worth Airport (CRADA CRD-19-16301 Final Report)

The primary objective of this project was to leverage digital twin technology to enhance the design and operation of DFW Airport terminals and their associated energy systems. To achieve this, Morpheus, a building digital twin, was developed to guide improvements in airport operations, specifically targeting reductions in peak power demand and overall energy consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

Tailoring Morphology of Cu–Ag Nanocrescents and Core–Shell Nanocrystals Guided by a Thermodynamic Model

The ability to predict and control the formation of bimetallic heterogeneous nanocrystals is desirable for many applications in plasmonics and catalysis. In this work, we observe the synthesis and characterization of stable, monodisperse, and solution-processed Cu-Ag bimetallic nanoparticles with specific but unusual elemental arrangements that are consistent with a recently developed thermodynamic model. Using air-free scanning transmission electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, the distribution of Cu and Ag positions was unambiguously identified within individual nanocrystals (NCs), leading to the discovery of a Cu-Ag nanocrescent shape. A simple yet versatile thermodynamic model was applied to illustrate how the interplay between surface and interface energies determines the particle morphology. It is found that there exists a range of surface-to-interface energy ratios under which crescent-shaped nanocrystals are the thermodynamically favored products, with the morphology tunable by adjusting the Ag content. Moreover, we show the conversion of Cu-Ag nanocrescents into Ag@Cu 2 O upon mild oxidation, whereas fully core-shell Cu@Ag NCs are robust against oxidation up to 100 °C. The plasmonic and interband absorptions of Cu-Ag NCs depend on the composition and the degree of Cu oxidation, which may find application in light-driven catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

An Efficient Silent Data Corruption Detection Method with Error-Feedback Control and Even Sampling for HPC Applications

The silent data corruption (SDC) problem is attracting more and more attentions because it is expected to have a great impact on exascale HPC applications. SDC faults are hazardous in that they pass unnoticed by hardware and can lead to wrong computation results. In this work, we formulate SDC detection as a runtime one-step-ahead prediction method, leveraging multiple linear prediction methods in order to improve the detection results. The contributions are twofold: (1) we propose an error feedback control model that can reduce the prediction errors for different linear prediction methods, and (2) we propose a spatial-data-based even-sampling method to minimize the detection overheads (including memory and computation cost). We implement our algorithms in the fault tolerance interface, a fault tolerance library with multiple checkpoint levels, such that users can conveniently protect their HPC applications against both SDC errors and fail-stop errors. We evaluate our approach by using large-scale traces from well-known, large-scale HPC applications, as well as by running those HPC applications on a real cluster environment. Experiments show that our error feedback control model can improve detection sensitivity by 34-189% for bit-flip memory errors injected with the bit positions in the range [20,30], without any degradation on detection accuracy. Furthermore, memory size can be reduced by 33% with our spatial-data even-sampling method, with only a slight and graceful degradation in the detection sensitivity.

Di, Sheng↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Machine Learning-based Approach to Predict the Aggregate Flexibility of HVAC Systems

Use of renewable energy resources can play a significant role in mitigation of climate change since they reduce the dependency on fossil fuels. However, high penetration of renewable energy resources into the power grid may cause some reliability problems. Ancillary services are key to realize the potential of renewable resources without disturbing the grid reliability. In recent years, many control approaches focused on exploiting the aggregate flexible heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) loads of buildings. However, there are still research gaps in assessing in advance the resulting indoor temperature responses for given total power and weather profiles before implementing the controls in the buildings. Such an assessment is critical to guarantee satisfying both the grid related objective (reliability) and the building related objective (occupants' comfort). Towards addressing this research gap, this paper presents a machine-learning approach for predicting the ratings of indoor temperature responses. In this approach, a prediction model was developed using a dataset generated by a set of model-free control simulations. The developed model achieved high prediction accuracy and showed the potential of the proposed approach.

Amasyali, Kadir↗
DOE OSTI2013

A TCP model for external beam treatment of intermediate-risk prostate cancer

Purpose: Biological models offer the ability to predict clinical outcomes. The authors describe a model to predict the clinical response of intermediate-risk prostate cancer to external beam radiotherapy for a variety of fractionation regimes. Methods: A fully heterogeneous population averaged tumor control probability model was fit to clinical outcome data for hyper, standard, and hypofractionated treatments. The tumor control probability model was then employed to predict the clinical outcome of extreme hypofractionation regimes, as utilized in stereotactic body radiotherapy. Results: The tumor control probability model achieves an excellent level of fit, R{sup 2} value of 0.93 and a root mean squared error of 1.31%, to the clinical outcome data for hyper, standard, and hypofractionated treatments using realistic values for biological input parameters. Residuals Less-Than-Or-Slanted-Equal-To 1.0% are produced by the tumor control probability model when compared to clinical outcome data for stereotactic body radiotherapy. Conclusions: The authors conclude that this tumor control probability model, used with the optimized radiosensitivity values obtained from the fit, is an appropriate mechanistic model for the analysis and evaluation of external beam RT plans with regard to tumor control for these clinical conditions.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

High Temperature Erosion Modeling in Particle Based CSP Systems

1. Introduction. Wear and erosion damage of materials from solid particle and surface interactions is a major issue in various industries. Although more common in mining and oil and gas production, erosion is becoming a critical issue in renewable technologies as well such as particle based concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) systems. In particle based CSP systems, solid particles are used to absorb solar energy and as thermal storage. However, these particles may cause significant amount of wear to system components while through the system at high temperatures. This damage can be costly, and therefore, requires a greater understanding of solid particle erosion in CSP systems. Throughout the years, models and tools have been developed to predict and control erosion in industries such as oil and gas production. However, these erosion models and erosion prediction tools have been mainly developed based on erosion data for much higher velocities and lower temperatures, i.e. the operating conditions for which the existing models have been built are not pertinent to those expected in CSP system. It is known that erosion depends on many factors such as material properties, erodent particle properties, and particle impact speed and angle. However, the effect of temperature on erosion is not vastly investigated. In this work, a temperature-based correlation is introduced that will be used to modify the existing erosion models to predict erosion rates at velocities and temperatures relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. The existing models are first validated against erosion experiments run at low temperatures and low velocities. Subsequently, a temperature correction term is developed that can extend the existing models to high temperatures, based on the available experimental data showing the effect of temperature on impact erosion. 2. Erosion Models. Continuing sequence of impacts from solid particles on surfaces would result in loss of material due to mechanical interaction between solid surface and particles. Erosion equations have been developed to predict erosion under different conditions and erosion mechanism, including cutting and deformation erosion. These models are mainly either mechanistic, empirical, and semi-mechanistic models, when the latter combine the theory of the erosion mechanism and particle motion with the available experimental data. One of the first empirical correlation was introduced by American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 14E [1]. This correlation was very conservative, and several improved empirical and semi-mechanistic equations were developed in the years following. More recently, the models introduced by Erosion/Corrosion Research Center (E/CRC) at the University of Tulsa and Arabnejad. et al. [2] are frequently used in the literature and industry, as they account for many parameters affecting erosion including particle impact speed and angle, material density and hardness, and particle size and shape. However, both these models were developed based on data at relatively high velocities and also do not take into account any mechanical changes in material associated with thermal cycling at high temperatures. 3. Erosion Prediction at High Temperatures. In this work, the accuracy of Arabnejad et al. model and E/CRC model is investigated to predict impact erosion at conditions relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. Two significant deviations expected in Gen3 systems compared to operating conditions used to build these models are particle impact velocities and system temperature. As a first step, the performance of these models was validated at low velocities and temperatures. Impact erosion experiments were conducted on SS316 coupons using HSP 40/70 ceramic particles. Assuming particle rate of 1 kg/s/m, 0.0254 m of particle curtain thickness, and particle velocity of 1.5 m/s in the system, an overall erosion of 0.59 mm/year was calculated. The experimental results were subsequently compared to those from computational simulations and erosion of 0.47 mm/year was obtained using the Arabnejad et al. model. The results indicated that the models work well at low velocities and low temperature conditions. To account for temperature effect, a mathematical correlation was developed using data published by DUCOM [3] for Inconel 600 eroded by alumina particles at high velocities. The correlation was applied to both Arabnejad et. al model and the E/CRC model. The prediction results from these modified models were within 20% of this experimental data. Predictions of of erosion by the modified E/CRC model at three different temperatures are made. Similar to the calculation at low temperature, a typical CSP system with 1 kg/s/m of particle flow rate per unit length of the particle curtain and a curtain thickness of 0.0254 m is assumed. The annual thickness loss calculations were run for different particle impact velocities, assuming a uniform particle impact area equal to the cross-sectional area of the curtain (particle-particle interactions and dispersion of particles are not considered in obtaining the results). It is observed that erosion increases exponentially as temperature increases. Furthermore, it is also noted that, erosion changes non-linearly with impact velocity. Currently, experiments are also being conducted to measure erosion of SS316 at 800 ºC with HSP 40/70 particles at low impact velocities. We expect to use the results from high temperature testing to further improve the temperature correlation function. Similar models are also being developed for abrasion erosion resulting from particle sliding along the surfaces as well as attrition from particle to particle and particle to surface interactions. References. [1] Institute, A. P. (1991). API Recommended Practice for Design and Installation of Offshore Production Platform Piping System, API RP 14E. [2] Arabnejad, H., Mansouri, A., Shirazi, S. A., and McLaury, B. S. (2015a). Development of mechanistic erosion equation for solid particles. Wear, 332–333, 1044–1050. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.wear.2015.01.031. [3] https://ducom.com/high-temperature-erosion-evaluating-sample-wear/

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Oxide scale exfoliation and regrowth in TP347H superheater tubes: Oxide scale exfoliation and regrowth

This paper provides an introduction to a comprehensive model being developed to predict and control oxide scale exfoliation from the steam-side of superheater and reheater tubes in steam boilers. The model deals with the main phenomena involved in scale growth and failure in steam, and incorporates major variables related to boiler design and operation. The considerations used to calculate oxide growth under the specific constrains of small diameter tubes carrying high-pressure steam and operating with large temperature gradients under temperature and pressure cycling conditions, as well as the evolution of stresses and strains in the scales, are indicated but only a cursory description is given of the details of the analytical treatments. An example is presented of calculations made with the model to predict the extent of blockage expected in a single superheater loop as a function of time and outlet steam temperature under several realistic service conditions. The results suggest that problems due to scale exfoliation would be expected early in the operating life of superheater tubes made from austenitic steel TP347H.

Sabau, A. S.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Model Identification of Inverter Nonlinear Control Dynamics

To comprehensively predict in silico potential disruptive dynamic performance of converter-based generation and develop solutions, the application of electromagnetic transient programs is desirable. However, these accurate simulations highly depend on inverter models of actual field implementations, which are often unavailable because they are proprietary. To address this problem, we propose a time-domain model identification method that can be used to determine the control models of inverters in continuous time from multiple experimental studies. The focus is on identifying the dynamic representation of controls because they dominate the dynamic response of renewable assets. To illustrate the applicability of the technique, we consider a subclass of inverter controllers for autonomous grid applications that rely on nonlinear oscillators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Sorption Modeling and Verification for Off-Gas Treatment

This project was successfully executed to provide valuable adsorption data and improve a comprehensive model developed in previous work by the authors. Data obtained were used in an integrated computer program to predict the behavior of adsorption columns. The model is supported by experimental data and has been shown to predict capture of off gas similar to that evolving during the reprocessing of nuclear waste. The computer program structure contains (a) equilibrium models of off-gases with the adsorbate; (b) mass-transfer models to describe off-gas mass transfer to a particle, diffusion through the pores of the particle, and adsorption on the active sites of the particle; and (c) incorporation of these models into fixed bed adsorption modeling, which includes advection through the bed. These models are being connected with the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) software developed at the Idaho National Laboratory through DGOSPREY (Discontinuous Galerkin Off-gas SeParation and REcoverY) computer codes developed in this project. Experiments for iodine and water adsorption have been conducted on reduced silver mordenite (Ag0Z) for single layered particles. Adsorption apparatuses have been constructed to execute these experiments over a useful range of conditions for temperatures ranging from ambient to 250°C and water dew points ranging from -69 to 19°C. Experimental results were analyzed to determine mass transfer and diffusion of these gases into the particles and to determine which models best describe the single and binary component mass transfer and diffusion processes. The experimental results were also used to demonstrate the capabilities of the comprehensive models developed to predict single-particle adsorption and transients of the adsorption-desorption processes in fixed beds. Models for adsorption and mass transfer have been developed to mathematically describe adsorption kinetics and transport via diffusion and advection processes. These models were built on a numerical framework for solving conservation law problems in one-dimensional geometries such as spheres, cylinders, and lines. Coupled with the framework are specific models for adsorption in commercial adsorbents, such as zeolites and mordenites. Utilizing this modeling approach, the authors were able to accurately describe and predict adsorption kinetic data obtained from experiments at a variety of different temperatures and gas phase concentrations. A demonstration of how these models, and framework, can be used to simulate adsorption in fixed- bed columns is provided. The CO 2 absorption work involved modeling with supportive experimental information. A dynamic model was developed to simulate CO 2 absorption using high alkaline content water solutions. The model is based upon transient mass and energy balances for chemical species commonly present in CO 2 absorption. A computer code was developed to implement CO 2 absorption with a chemical reaction model. Experiments were conducted in a laboratory scale column to determine the model parameters. The influence of geometric parameters and operating variables on CO 2 absorption was studied over a wide range of conditions. Continuing work could employ the model to control column operation and predict the absorption behavior under various input conditions and other prescribed experimental perturbations. The value of the validated models and numerical frameworks developed in this project is that they can be used to predict the sorption behavior of off-gas evolved during the reprocessing of nuclear waste and thus reduce the cost of the experiments. They can also be used to design sorption processes based on concentration limits and flow-rates determined at the plant level.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Determination of Gray Cast Iron Age Strengthening by Nondestructive Methods: Effect of Alloying Elements

Gray cast iron age strengthening is a phenomenon known as a modification of the alloy’s structure by iron-nitride precipitation during few days after casting. It generates an evolution of cast iron mechanical properties as a gain of hardness and Young’s modulus. In a first time, this article presents the possibility to monitor the aging time and the intensity of age strengthening using two nondestructive methods: nonstandard Rockwell hardness and inert frequencies measurement. In a second time, the study shows the influence of the alloying elements on this phenomenon and particularly the influence of free nitrogen amount, which is a first-order parameter to control aging. Finally, a prediction model of the time and the intensity of age strengthening has been elaborated using the results of the two different monitoring described.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Biochemical Production with Purified Cell-Free Systems

Bioprocesses offer a powerful set of opportunities for current chemical process innovation. Such conversions provide opportunities to employ process intensification strategies and the right characteristics to scale down and harness the power of modular process design, but strain engineering and the use of microbial systems for industrial biochemicals production remain unpredictable and expensive. Purified cell-free technologies, in which complex enzyme reaction cascades are used to catalyze bioconversions of interest, can be designed to mitigate these limitations. Such systems allow predictive kinetic modeling and full control of reaction conductions, enabling a dramatically increased design-built-test cycle iteration rate. When sufficiently robust engineered enzymes are used, opportunities to leverage harsh reaction conditions, long-term recycling strategies, and hybridization with chemical catalysis can be used to dramatically improve the value proposition of biochemicals production. As a result, further research is required to realize the potential of these approaches and to address the current platform-limiting challenges around cofactor cost and reuse.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗