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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven high-dimensional statistical inference with generative models

Crucial to many measurements at the LHC is the use of correlated multi-dimensional information to distinguish rare processes from large backgrounds, which is complicated by the poor modeling of many of the crucial backgrounds in Monte Carlo simulations. In this work, we introduce HI-SIGMA, a method to perform unbinned high-dimensional statistical inference with data-driven background distributions. In contradistinction to many applications of Simulation Based Inference in High Energy Physics, HI-SIGMA relies on generative ML models, rather than classifiers, to learn the signal and background distributions in the high-dimensional space. These ML models allow for interpretable inference while also incorporating model errors and other sources of systematic uncertainties. We showcase this methodology on a simplified version of a di-Higgs measurement in the bbγγ final state, where the di-photon resonance allows for background interpolation from sidebands into the signal region. We demonstrate that HI-SIGMA provides improved sensitivity as compared to standard classifier-based methods, and that systematic uncertainties can be straightforwardly incorporated by extending methods which have been used for histogram based analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Framework for phase transitions between the Maxwell and Gibbs constructions at finite temperature

The characteristics of the hadron-to-quark first-order phase transition differ depending on whether charge neutrality is locally or globally fulfilled. In 𝛽-equilibrated matter, these two possibilities correspond to the Maxwell and Gibbs constructions. Recently, we presented a new framework in which a continuously varying parameter allows one to describe a first-order phase transition in intermediate scenarios to the two extremes of fully local and fully global charge neutrality. In this work, we extend the previous framework to finite temperatures and out-of-𝛽 equilibrium conditions, making it available for simulations of core-collapse supernovae and binary neutron star mergers. We investigate its impact on key thermodynamic quantities across a range of baryon densities, temperatures, and electron fractions. We find that when matter is not in 𝛽 equilibrium, the pressure in the mixed phase is not constant even for the case of fully local charge neutrality. Moreover, we compute the thermal index using three different approaches, demonstrating that the finite-temperature extension of an equation of state using a constant thermal index can be ill defined when applied to the mixed phase.

QCD phase transitions↗
DOE OSTI2024

Magnetic dipole γ-ray strength functions in the crossover from spherical to deformed neodymium isotopes

We calculate the magnetic dipole $\gamma$-ray strength functions in a chain of even-mass neodymium isotopes $^{144-152}$Nd in the framework of the configuration-interaction (CI) shell model. We infer the strength function by applying the maximum entropy method (MEM) to the exact imaginary-time response function calculated with the shell-model Monte Carlo (SMMC) method. The success of the MEM depends on the choice of a good strength function as a prior distribution. We investigate two choices for the prior strength function: the static path approximation (SPA) and the quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA). We find that the QRPA is a better approximation at low temperatures (i.e., near the ground state), while the SPA is a better choice at finite temperatures. We identify a low-energy enhancement (LEE) in the MEM deexcitation $M1$ strength functions of the even-mass neodymium isotopes and compare with recent experimental results for the total deexcitation $\gamma$-ray strength functions. The LEE is already seen in the SPA strength function but not in the QRPA strength function, indicating the importance of large-amplitude static fluctuations around the mean field in reproducing the LEE. Our method is currently the only one which can reproduce LEE in heavy open-shell nuclei where conventional CI shell model calculations are prohibited. With the onset of deformation as number of neutrons increases along the chain of neodymium isotopes, we observe that some of the LEE strength transfers to a low-energy excitation, which we interpret as a finite-temperature ``scissors'' mode. Here, we also observe a finite-temperature spin-flip mode.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

State-to-State Molecular Reactions in the Ultracold Regime (Final Scientific Report)

We have achieved the proposed goal to experimentally probe the AB + CD and AB + C types of reactions with state-to-state resolution, which we also compared to advanced theoretical calculations to help elucidate the role of quantum mechanics in the processes of bond breakage and formation. Our approach uses reactants that are prepared at ultracold temperatures (< 1µK) such that the quantum effects of translational motion are an important factor. Specific example reactions, including the potassium-rubidium metathesis reaction KRb + KRb → K 2 + Rb 2 as well as the atom exchange reaction Rb + KRb → Rb2 + K, are chosen because the technology of quantum internal and motional state control of these types of molecules is particularly advanced. The results for the entire funding period are fruitful. For the majority of this grant, we have constructed a one-of-the-kind quantum degenerate gas apparatus that integrates ion detection and velocity map imaging capabilities, allowing us to explore the KRb + KRb → K 2 + Rb 2 bimolecular reaction in detail. Specifically, we first verified such a reaction indeed proceed at ultracold temperatures by direct detection of reaction products. We then mapped out the complete product state distribution, which was compared to a state-counting model based on statistical theory. Our results show an overall agreement with the statistical state counting model, but also reveal several deviating state-pairs. An exact quantum calculation for molecule-molecule collisions, that is needed to understand these deviations, is however beyond the current state-of-the-art. Beside scrutinizing the reaction products, we also directly observe the reaction intermediate complex, which was quite a surprise to us. The intermediate complexes are long-lived and can interact with the inferred light that we use to trap the ultracold gas. After molecule-molecule collisions, we then explored the more theoretically tractable Rb + KRb reaction, which is endothermic. Surprisingly, we observed an exceedingly long-lived KRb$^*_2$ collisional complexes, with our experimentally measured complex lifetime deviating from conventional theoretical calculations by five orders of magnitude. This discrepancy has motivated many explorations of possible underlying causes, though no model yet captures this phenomenon completely. In the final year and the work that continues today, we extend upon these atom-molecule collision experiments to explore the origin of the long-lived KRb$^*_2$ complex lifetime and develop means to control the outcome of the reaction complex. The 5-year funded work advanced our understanding of chemical reactions at the lowest possible temperatures and at the same time opened up many new questions that are beyond our initial imaginations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1977

Nonlinear viscoelasticity and relaxation phenomena of polymer solids

In the light of a three-chain model of statistical network theories of rubberlike elastic models, it is assumed that the free energy function of incompressible viscoelastic polymer solids is a separable, symmetric function of the principle stretch ratios and the hidden thermodynamic coordinates along the same directions. This assumption leads to a characterization of those viscoelastic polymer solids which exhibit the property of factorizability between the time and strain functions.

Peng, S. T. J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Real-time three-dimensional color doppler evaluation of the flow convergence zone for quantification of mitral regurgitation: Validation experimental animal study and initial clinical experience

BACKGROUND: Pitfalls of the flow convergence (FC) method, including 2-dimensional imaging of the 3-dimensional (3D) geometry of the FC surface, can lead to erroneous quantification of mitral regurgitation (MR). This limitation may be mitigated by the use of real-time 3D color Doppler echocardiography (CE). Our objective was to validate a real-time 3D navigation method for MR quantification. METHODS: In 12 sheep with surgically induced chronic MR, 37 different hemodynamic conditions were studied with real-time 3DCE. Using real-time 3D navigation, the radius of the largest hemispherical FC zone was located and measured. MR volume was quantified according to the FC method after observing the shape of FC in 3D space. Aortic and mitral electromagnetic flow probes and meters were balanced against each other to determine reference MR volume. As an initial clinical application study, 22 patients with chronic MR were also studied with this real-time 3DCE-FC method. Left ventricular (LV) outflow tract automated cardiac flow measurement (Toshiba Corp, Tokyo, Japan) and real-time 3D LV stroke volume were used to quantify the reference MR volume (MR volume = 3DLV stroke volume - automated cardiac flow measurement). RESULTS: In the sheep model, a good correlation and agreement was seen between MR volume by real-time 3DCE and electromagnetic (y = 0.77x + 1.48, r = 0.87, P <.001, delta = -0.91 +/- 2.65 mL). In patients, real-time 3DCE-derived MR volume also showed a good correlation and agreement with the reference method (y = 0.89x - 0.38, r = 0.93, P <.001, delta = -4.8 +/- 7.6 mL). CONCLUSIONS: real-time 3DCE can capture the entire FC image, permitting geometrical recognition of the FC zone geometry and reliable MR quantification.

Validation Studies↗
NASA NTRS2000

Visual detection of spatial contrast patterns: evaluation of five simple models

The ModelFest Phase One dataset is a collection of luminance contrast thresholds for 43 two-dimensional monochromatic spatial patterns confined to an area of approximately two by two degrees. These data were collected by a collaboration among twelve laboratories, and were designed to provide a common database for calibration and testing of spatial vision models. Here I report fits of the ModelFest data with five models: Peak Contrast, Contrast Energy, Generalized Energy, a Gabor Channels model, and a Discrete Cosine Transform model. The Gabor Channels model provides the best fit, though the other, simpler models, with the exception of Peak Contrast, provide remarkably good fits as well. Though there are clear individual differences, regularities in the data suggest the possibility of constructing a standard observer for spatial vision. c2000 Optical Society of America.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗
NASA NTRS1983

Rain cell size statistics as a function of rain rate for attenuation modeling

Rain cell size statistics as a function of rain rate have been deduced by employing a radar data base of rain reflectivity data acquired over a three-year period at Wallops Island, VA. These cell statistics have important applications in slant path rain attenuation modeling and remote sensing of the earth's surface from space at frequencies above 10 GHz.

Goldhirsh, J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Coupling the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) with the Statistical Spectral Interpolation (SSI) System under ESMF

The first set of interoperability experiments illustrates the role ESMF can play in integrating the national Earth science resources. Using existing data assimilation technology from NCEP and the National Weather Service, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) was able to ingest conventional and remotely sensed observations, a capability that could open the door to using CAM for weather as well as climate prediction. CAM, which includes land surface capabilities, was developed by NCAR, with key components from GSFC. In this talk we will describe the steps necessary for achieving the coupling of these two systems.

daSilva, Arlindo↗
NASA NTRS1996

Testing of hypotheses about altitude decompression sickness by statistical analyses

This communication extends a statistical analysis of forced-descent decompression sickness at altitude in exercising subjects (J Appl Physiol 1994; 76:2726-2734) with a data subset having an additional explanatory variable, rate of ascent. The original explanatory variables for risk-function analysis were environmental pressure of the altitude, duration of exposure, and duration of pure-O2 breathing before exposure; the best fit was consistent with the idea that instantaneous risk increases linearly as altitude exposure continues. Use of the new explanatory variable improved the fit of the smaller data subset, as indicated by log likelihood. Also, with ascent rate accounted for, replacement of the term for linear accrual of instantaneous risk by a term for rise and then decay made a highly significant improvement upon the original model (log likelihood increased by 37 log units). The authors conclude that a more representative data set and removal of the variability attributable to ascent rate allowed the rise-and-decay mechanism, which is expected from theory and observations, to become manifest.

NASA Center JSC↗
NASA NTRS1989

A non-Markovian model of avalanche gain statistics for a solid-state photomultiplier

A solid-state photomultiplier (SSPM) capable of continously detecting individual photons of wavelength between 0.4 and 28 microns has recently been disclosed (Petroff et al., 1987). The initial response of the SSPM to single photon is a fast, high-amplitude current pulse of between 10,000 and 100,000 electrons. A phenomenological model of the SSPM avalanche process is presented which successfully predicts the shape of the observed pulse-amplitude distribution by including small history-dependent effects on the carrier transport. The model clarifies the consequences of the electric field strength and the scattering of the electrons for the development of the avalanche in the SSPM.

Laviolette, Randall A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 3: A stochastic rain fade control algorithm for satellite link power via non linear Markow filtering theory

The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.

Manning, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Ornstein-Zernike theory for two-temperature two-component plasmas

Laboratory plasma production almost always preferentially heats either the ions or electrons, leading to a two-temperature state. In this state, density functional theory molecular dynamic simulation is the state of the art for modeling bulk material properties. We construct a statistical mechanics model for the two temperature limit that is theoretically consistent with the molecular dynamics method. We proceed to derive the electron-ion multi-temperature quantum Ornstein-Zernike equations for the first time. This allows the construction of a two-temperature two-component plasma model using the average atom from which we can compute bulk material properties at a fraction of the computation time of the two-temperature density functional theory simulation. The accuracy of the model is benchmarked against ion pair correlation and self-diffusion results from ab initio simulation. Here, we proceed to compute the viscosity and ion thermal conductivity as a function of both ion and electron temperature.

Ab initio molecular dynamics↗
NASA NTRS1994

Quantum statistics of Raman scattering model with Stokes mode generation

The model describing three coupled quantum oscillators with decay of Rayleigh mode into the Stokes and vibration (phonon) modes is examined. Due to the Manley-Rowe relations the problem of exact eigenvalues and eigenstates is reduced to the calculation of new orthogonal polynomials defined both by the difference and differential equations. The quantum statistical properties are examined in the case when initially: the Stokes mode is in the vacuum state; the Rayleigh mode is in the number state; and the vibration mode is in the number of or squeezed states. The collapses and revivals are obtained for different initial conditions as well as the change in time the sub-Poisson distribution by the super-Poisson distribution and vice versa.

Tanatar, Bilal↗
NASA NTRS1987

Aero-Assisted Orbital Transfer Vehicle (AOTV)

The AOTV will make use of the atmosphere to provide braking on return from a planetary mission or geosynchronous orbit. The minimum altitude for aerobraking is typically 255,000 ft at the equator. Time of the braking maneuver is typically 480 sec from 400,000 ft to 255,000 ft and back out - about 8 min. The problem is to design a control system that will be able to handle density irregularities such as those that have shown up in shuttle data near 280,000 ft. To obtain data, one has to use model-produced statistics or information obtained during the atmospheric transit time. The Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) appears to bracket the shuttle data, but it is not clear that the statistics are correct. The model-data exhibits strong density shears over small step size that are probably an artifact.

Hill, Oliver↗
NASA NTRS2005

Separating the Chemical and Dynamical Contributions to the Ozone Change

Statistical analysis is used to extract the sensitivity of ozone to changes in stratospheric chlorine due to emissions of chlorofluorcarbons from the observed ozone record. The statistical analysis relies on a model that accounts for natural variations in ozone including the seasonal cycle, the solar cycle, variations in aerosols due to volcanic eruption, and the quasi- biennial oscillation, A noise term includes contributions to ozone variability due to inter-annual variability in the stratospheric circulation not due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, The residual circulation varies due to variability in planetary wave forcing, and studies using meteorological analyses show that the build-up of ozone over the winter is correlated with the planetary wave Eliassen-Palm flux. This variability in the residual circulation is not included in the statistical model, and contributes to the apparent ozone sensitivity to chlorine derived from observations for 1979 - 2000. We have investigated these relationships using multi-decadal simulations of our off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM). Our simulations use meteorological fields output from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model (GCM). A 50 climatology specifies the sea surface temperatures to produce the GCM simulation. The CTM was used with these winds to produce two simulations, one in which the boundary conditions for chlorofluorcarbons and other source gases vary as specified for 1973-2022 by the Scenario A2 of the World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment, and the second with source gases fixed to their 1979 values. The same statistical analysis used to derive trends from observations is applied to the CTM output. When applied to the difference between the two simulations the statistical analysis provides a more precise measure of the ozone sensitivity to chlorine change. We are testing ways of including the interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model so that we can derive the same result from the Scenario A2 simulation as is obtained when the statistical analysis is applied to the difference between the two simulations. This should provide direction as to how to account for the changes in ozone due to interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model that is applied to the observed data record.

Douglass, Anne R.↗