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At least 703 records · Page 39

How strong is ocean mixing in the Pacific Ocean cold tongue, and does it matter?

Microstructure observations within the Pacific Ocean cold tongue reveal that strong surface boundary layer turbulence often penetrates into the thermocline producing hundreds of W/m^2 of downward heat transport during nighttime and early morning. Hence, it has been suggested that ocean turbulent mixing contributes significantly to the sea-surface temperature budget and modulates air-sea interaction on a wide range of timescales with consequences for global climate and weather. However, most observations of ocean microstructure in the cold tongue are from 0 N,140 W. In this presentation, I will attempt to characterize ocean mixing at and beyond 0 N,140 W using models. Questions to be addressed include: 1) can we model ocean mixing at 0 N,140 W? And 2) how does ocean mixing vary in space and time beyond 0 N,140 W? Finally, 3) how does ocean mixing compare to the air-sea heat flux in the sea-surface temperature budget? Results will be derived from existing observations at 0 N, 140 W and a new hierarchy of regional ocean process simulations including a 20-year-long submesoscale-permitting regional model and month-long turbulence-permitting large eddy simulations embedded in a regional model.

Strong↗

The Land Ice Representation in the NASA Goddard Seasonal Forecasting System

Models used in seasonal forecasting systems have aimed for a level of sophistication comparable to Earth system models by incorporating complex physical processes, including those relevant to the polar regions. Here, we examine the polar surface climate in version 3 of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Sub-seasonal to Seasonal prediction system (GEOS S2S v3). The model is composed of the ⅟₂̊ resolution Jason4.0version of the GEOS AGCM and the MOM5 ocean model at ⅟₄̊ resolution. The GEOSS2S model incorporates interactive aerosols and two-moment cloud microphysics. As compared to version 2, the model incorporates improved radiative transfer and are designed diurnal cycle atmosphere-ocean interface layer. This study aims to understand how the version 3 model compares with version 2, and with contemporary Earth system models.

Richard I Cullather↗

The Ocean and Climate: Results from the TOPEX/POSEIDON Mission

Since 1992, the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite has been making altimetric sea surface observations with a sea level accuracy of 4.4 cm. This data can be used for studying regional and seasonal differences in sea level and for evaluating oceanic circulation models and tidal models. Longer term changes can also be studied, such as El Nino and overall sea level rising (although the latter is still within the margin of error).

sea level oceanography TOPEX POSEIDONsea surface t↗

The DOE E3SM version 2.1: overview and assessment of the impacts of parameterized ocean submesoscales

The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2.1 builds on E3SMv2 with several changes, with the most notable being the addition of the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization. This parameterization captures the effect of finite-amplitude, mixed-layer eddies as an overturning streamfunction and has the primary function of restratification. Herein, we outline the changes to the mean climate state of E3SM that were introduced by the addition of this parameterization. Overall, the presence of the submesoscale parameterization improves the fidelity of the v2.1 simulation by reducing the ocean surface biases in the North Atlantic present in v2, as illustrated by changes in the climatological sea surface temperature and salinity and the Arctic sea-ice extent. Other impacts include a slight shoaling of the mixed-layer depths in the North Atlantic and a small improvement in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We note that the expected shoaling due to the parameterization is regionally dependent in our coupled configuration. In addition, we investigate why the parameterization and its impacts on mixed-layer depth have little impact on the simulated AMOC: despite increased dense-water formation in the Norwegian Sea, only a small fraction of the water formed makes its way south into the North Atlantic basin. Version 2.1 also exhibits small improvements in the atmospheric climatology, with smaller biases in many notable quantities and modes of variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiative Impacts of Further Arctic Sea Ice Melt: Using past Observations to Inform Future Climate Impacts

The Arctic region has seen dramatic changes over the past several decades, from polar amplification of global temperature rise to ecosystem changes to the decline of the sea ice. While there has been much speculation as to when the world will see an ice-free Arctic, the radiative impacts of an eventual disappearance of the Arctic sea ice are likely to be significant regardless of the timing. Using CERES radiation and microwave satellite sea ice data, Pistone et al (2014) estimated the radiative forcing due to albedo changes associated with the Arctic sea ice retreat over the 30 years of the satellite data record. In this study, we found that the Arctic Ocean saw a decrease in all-sky albedo of 4% (from 52% to 48%), for an estimated increase in solar heating of 6.4 W/m(exp 2) between 1979 and 2011, or 0.21 W/m(exp 2) when averaged over the globe. This value is substantial--approximately 25% as large as the forcing due to the change in CO2 during the same period. Here we update and expand upon this previous work and use the CERES broadband shortwave observations to explore the radiative impacts of a transition to completely ice-free Arctic Ocean. We estimate the annually-averaged Arctic Ocean planetary albedo under ice-free and cloud-free conditions to be 14% over the region, or approximately 25% lower in absolute terms than the Arctic Ocean cloud-free albedo in 1979. However, the question of all-sky conditions (i.e. including the effects of clouds) introduces a new level of complexity. We explore several cloud scenarios and the resultant impact on albedo. In each of these cases, the estimated forcing is not uniformly distributed throughout the year. We describe the relative contributions of ice loss by month as well as the spatial distributions of the resulting changes in absorbed solar energy. The seasonal timing and location—in addition to magnitude—of the altered solar absorption may have significant implications for atmospheric and ocean dynamics in the Arctic and at lower latitudes; this observationally-based estimate of the large-scale characteristics of an ice-free Arctic thus provides a valuable tool to complement and validate model-based assessments of future climate.

Pistone, K.↗

Decadal Spiciness Variability in the Subtropical-Tropical Pacific in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Tropical Pacific decadal variations impact weather and climate around the world and are also connected to variations in the global warming trend. The mechanisms driving these long-term modulations, particularly the role of subsurface ocean dynamics, are still debated. Here, we investigate the dynamics of spiciness (density-compensated temperature and salinity) anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Pacific, which are hypothesized as a possible driving mechanism of decadal climate variability. Based on the analysis of 100 realizations from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), we demonstrate a coupling between the subtropics and the equatorial Pacific by propagating spiciness anomalies at decadal time scales. The CESM2-LE simulates spiciness variability along a subduction path from the subtropics to the equator with frequency spectra that show the highest power at low frequencies and a power decay proportional to a −4 slope for frequencies greater than 0.01 cycles per months, corresponding to periods smaller than ∼8.5 years. Signals that originate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) dominate and arrive with a larger magnitude at the equator compared to spiciness anomalies from the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Spiciness anomalies from the SH have shorter propagation times and are strengthened along their pathway as stochastic wind stress curl forcing generates anomalous baroclinic ocean pressure gradients. These pressure gradients generate spiciness anomalies via anomalous advection across climatological spiciness gradients in the SH. We conclude that the observed spiciness variance at decadal time scales is consistent with a forcing by stochastic wind variations that are low-pass filtered by ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanisms of Interannual Variations of the Meridional Overturning Circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean

The authors investigate the nature of the interannual variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the North Atlantic Ocean using an Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) assimilation product for the period of 1993-2003. The time series of the first empirical orthogonal function of the MOC is found to be correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, while the associated circulation anomalies correspond to cells extending over the full ocean depth. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the wind is responsible for most of this interannual variability, at least south of 40(deg)N. A dynamical decomposition of the meridional streamfunction allows a further look into the mechanisms. In particular, the contributions associated with 1) the Ekman flow and its depth-independent compensation, 2) the vertical shear flow, and 3) the barotropic gyre flowing over zonally varying topography are examined. Ekman processes are found to dominate the shorter time scales (1.5-3 yr), while for longer time scales (3-10 yr) the MOC variations associated with vertical shear flow are of greater importance. The latter is primarily caused by heaving of the pycnocline in the western subtropics associated with the stronger wind forcing. Finally, how these changes in the MOC affect the meridional heat transport (MHT) is examined. It is found that overall, Ekman processes explain a larger part of interannual variability (3-10 yr) for MHT (57%) than for the MOC (33%).

meridional heat transport↗

Strong Dependence of Atmospheric Feedbacks on Mixed-Phase Microphysics and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in HadGEM3

We analyze the atmospheric processes that explain the large changes in radiative feed-backs between the two latest climate configurations of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental model. We use a large set of atmosphere-only climate-change simulations (amip and amip-p4K) to separate the contributions to the differences in feedback parameter from all the atmospheric model developments between the two latest model configurations. We show that the differences are mostly driven by changes in the shortwave cloud radiative feedback in the midlatitudes, mainly over the Southern Ocean. Two new schemes explain most of the differences: the introduction of a new aerosol scheme; and the development of a new mixed-phase cloud scheme. Both schemes reduce the strength of the pre-existing shortwave negative cloud feedback in the midlatitudes. The new aerosol scheme dampens a strong aerosol-cloud interaction, and it also suppresses a negative clear-sky shortwave feedback. The mixed-phase scheme increases the amount of cloud liquid water path (LWP) in the present-day, thereby reducing the radiative effciency of the increase of LWP in the warmer climate. It also enhances a strong, pre-existing, positive cloud fraction feedback. We assess the realism of the changes by comparing present-day simulations against observations, and discuss avenues that could help constrain the relevant processes.

HadGEM3↗

Simulation studies of the influence of sea-surface temperature anomalies on the Sahelian circulation and rainfall

An investigation was conducted to find out if sea surface temperature (SST) - African rainfall relationships could be simulated in a global climate model (GCM). If indeed that were possible, researchers generated useful diagnostics that can enable them to understand the physical mechanisms which lead to rainfall fluctuations over Africa in response to sea surface temperature anomalies over global ocean.

Sud, Y. C.↗

GEOS-5 System Developments for Decadal Climate Prediction at NASA/GMAO

The GEOS-5 AOGCM is being used to conduct the CMIP5 decadal prediction suite. The model is comprised of the GEOS-5 AGCM coupled to MOM4 and CICE, with aerosol distributions from GOCART. The decadal predictions are initialized from the GEOS Ocean-Ice reanalysis that is coupled to MERRA, GMAO's atmospheric reanalysis. Perturbations are generated using a bred vector approach. The integrations are still underway. The system and preliminary results will be presented.

Rienecker, Michele↗

Joint Projections of US East Coast Sea Level and Storm Surge

Future coastal flood risk will be strongly influenced by sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. These two factors are generally considered independently. Here, we assess twenty-first century changes in the coastal hazard for the US East Coast using a flood index (FI) that accounts for changes in flood duration and magnitude driven by SLR and changes in power dissipation index (PDI, an integrated measure of tropical cyclone intensity, frequency and duration). Sea-level rise and PDI are derived from representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations of 15 atmosphere- ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). By 2080-2099, projected changes in the FI relative to 1986-2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th-90th percentile range 4-75 times higher for RCP 2.6 and 35-350 times higher for RCP 8.5. High-end Fl projections are driven by three AOGCMs that project the largest increases in SLR, PDI and upper ocean temperatures. Changes in PDI are particularly influential if their intra-model correlation with SLR is included, increasing the RCP 8.5 90th percentile FI by a further 25%. Sea-level rise from other, possibly correlated, climate processes (for example, ice sheet and glacier mass changes) will further increase coastal flood risk and should be accounted for in comprehensive assessments.

cyclones↗

Cloud Macroscopic Organization: Order Emerging from Randomness

Clouds play a central role in many aspects of the climate system and their forms and shapes are remarkably diverse. Appropriate representation of clouds in climate models is a major challenge because cloud processes span at least eight orders of magnitude in spatial scales. Here we show that there exists order in cloud size distribution of low-level clouds, and that it follows a power-law distribution with exponent gamma close to 2. gamma is insensitive to yearly variations in environmental conditions, but has regional variations and land-ocean contrasts. More importantly, we demonstrate this self-organizing behavior of clouds emerges naturally from a complex network model with simple, physical organizing principles: random clumping and merging. We also demonstrate symmetry between clear and cloudy skies in terms of macroscopic organization because of similar fundamental underlying organizing principles. The order in the apparently complex cloud-clear field thus has its root in random local interactions. Studying cloud organization with complex network models is an attractive new approach that has wide applications in climate science. We also propose a concept of cloud statistic mechanics approach. This approach is fully complementary to deterministic models, and the two approaches provide a powerful framework to meet the challenge of representing clouds in our climate models when working in tandem.

Yuan, Tianle↗

Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and La Nina: the Role of Altimetry in ENSO Studies and Prediction

El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be a quasi-periodic coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon occurring roughly every 3-7 years. Its largest oceanic manifestations are found in the equatorial Pacific, but it is of global climatic significance. During the flight of the TOPEX]Poseidon altimeter, the equatorial Pacific was in the midst of an unusual period of prolonged ENSO warming in the mid-1990's. In 1997, the tropical Pacific witnessed the development of a major El Nino event, rivaling in strength the 1982-83 El Nino. The intensity of this El Nino, and its rapid intensification early in the calendar year, caught the scientific community by surprise. None of the forecast models, statistical or dynamical, captured these features of the 1997 El Nino, although those models that assimilated in situ ocean observations did better than most in predicting that the event would occur in 1997. The onset of the El Nino coincided with the occurrence of several westerly wind events in the western Pacific rather than to delayed oscillator physics. However, western Pacific sea levels were anomalously elevated a year and a half prior to the onset, which may have helped precondition the system to a particularly strong ENSO episode. The coming of La Nina was foreshadowed by large-scale drops in sea level in the western tropical Pacific and cyclonic wind stress curl anomalies far beyond the +\- 8 degrees latitude bounds of the TAO mooring array. In past El Nino events, the evolution of the coupled system could only be studied from the perspective of in situ observations. The 1997-1998 El Nino event will be the first time a major El Nino event will have been observed from start to finish via remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface topography, sea surface temperature, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. These observations have considerable potential for advancing coupled climate forecasts on time scales from seasons to decades. This presentation will address questions along the lines of: (1) What are the scientific problems in ENSO that can benefit most from altimetry data? (2) Are there any precursors in the global ocean-atmosphere system for the 1997-98 extreme event? (3) Is there a unique role of altimetry in detecting potential precursors?(4) Has Topex/Poseidon data been adequately used to improve ENSO forecasts? Is there any firm evidence? (6) What is the status of the transition of El Nino into a La Nina?

Busalacchi, Antonio J.↗

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth's, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn's moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

Astrobiology↗

Validating Salinity from SMAP and HYCOM Data with Saildrone Data during EUREC4A-OA/ATOMIC

The 2020 ‘Elucidating the role of clouds-circulation coupling in climate-Ocean-Atmosphere’ (EUREC4A-OA) and the ‘Atlantic Tradewind Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign’ (ATOMIC) campaigns focused on improving our understanding of the interaction between clouds, convection and circulation and their function in our changing climate. The campaign utilized many data collection technologies, some of which are relatively new. In this study, we used saildrone uncrewed surface vehicles, one of the newer cutting edge technologies available for marine data collection, to validate Level 2 and Level 3 Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) sea surface salinity (SSS) products in the Western Tropical Atlantic. The saildrones observed fine-scale salinity variability not present in the lower-spatial resolution satellite and model products. In regions that lacked significant small-scale salinity variability, the satellite and model salinities performed well. However, SMAP Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) 70 km generally outperformed its counterparts outside of areas with submesoscale SSS variation, whereas RSS 40 km performed better within freshening events such as a fresh tongue. HYCOM failed to detect the fresh tongue. These results will allow researchers to make informed decisions regarding the most ideal product and its drawbacks for their applications in this region and aid in the improvement of mesoscale and submesoscale SSS products, which can lead to the refinement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models.

Kashawn Hall↗

Locally narrow droplet size distributions are ubiquitous in stratocumulus clouds

Marine stratocumulus clouds are the “global reflectors,” sharply contrasting with the underlying dark ocean surface and exerting a net cooling on Earth’s climate. The magnitude of this cooling remains uncertain in part owing to the averaged representation of microphysical processes, such as the droplet-to-drizzle transition in global climate models (GCMs). Current GCMs parameterize cloud droplet size distributions as broad, cloud-averaged gammas. Here, using digital holographic measurements of discrete stratocumulus cloud volumes, we found cloud droplet size distributions to be narrower at the centimeter scale, never resembling the cloud average. These local distributions tended to form pockets of similar-looking cloud regions, each characterized by a size distribution shape that is diluted to varying degrees. These observations open the way for new modeling representations of microphysical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evolution of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS)

One of the strategic goals of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is to "Develop a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics consistent with the redirection of the human spaceflight program to focus on exploration". An important sub-goal of this goal is to "Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs." NASA meets this subgoal in partnership with other U.S. agencies and international organizations through its Earth science program. A major component of NASA s Earth science program is the Earth Observing System (EOS). The EOS program was started in 1990 with the primary purpose of modeling global climate change. This program consists of a set of space-borne instruments, science teams, and a data system. The instruments are designed to obtain highly accurate, frequent and global measurements of geophysical properties of land, oceans and atmosphere. The science teams are responsible for designing the instruments as well as scientific algorithms to derive information from the instrument measurements. The data system, called the EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS), produces data products using those algorithms as well as archives and distributes such products. The first of the EOS instruments were launched in November 1997 on the Japanese satellite called the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the last, on the U.S. satellite Aura, were launched in July 2004. The instrument science teams have been active since the inception of the program in 1990 and have participation from Brazil, Canada, France, Japan, Netherlands, United Kingdom and U.S. The development of EOSDIS was initiated in 1990, and this data system has been serving the user community since 1994. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the history and evolution of EOSDIS since its beginnings to the present and indicate how it continues to evolve into the future. this chapter is organized as follows. Sect. 7.2 provides a discussion of EOSDIS, its elements and their functions. Sect. 7.3 provides details regarding the move towards more distributed systems for supporting both the core and community needs to be served by NASA Earth science data systems. Sect. 7.4 discusses the use of standards and interfaces and their importance in EOSDIS. Sect. 7.5 provides details about the EOSDIS Evolution Study. Sect. 7.6 presents the implementation of the EOSDIS Evolution plan. Sect. 7.7 briefly outlines the progress that the implementation has made towards the 2015 Vision, followed by a summary in Sect. 7.8.

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram K.↗

Atmospheric Dissolved Iron Depostiion to the Global Oceans: Effects of Oxalate-Promoted Fe Dissolution, Photochemical Redox Cycling, and Dust Mineralogy

Mineral dust deposition is suggested to be a significant atmospheric supply pathway of bioavailable iron (Fe) to Fe-depleted surface oceans. In this study, mineral dust and dissolved Fe (Fed) deposition rates are predicted for March 2009 to February 2010 using the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem implemented with a comprehensive dust-Fe dissolution scheme. The model simulates Fed production during the atmospheric transport of mineral dust taking into account inorganic and organic (oxalate)-promoted Fe dissolution processes, photochemical redox cycling between ferric (Fe(III)) and ferrous (Fe(II)) forms of Fe, dissolution of three different Fe-containing minerals (hematite, goethite, and aluminosilicates), and detailed mineralogy of windblown dust from the major desert regions. Our calculations suggest that during the yearlong simulation is approximately 0.26 Tg (1 Tg = 1012 g) of Fed was deposited to global oceanic regions. Compared to simulations only taking into account proton-promoted Fe dissolution, the addition of oxalate to the dust-Fe mobilization scheme increased total annual model-predicted Fed deposition to global oceanic regions by approximately 75%. The implementation of Fe(II)/Fe(III) photochemical redox cycling in the model allows for the distinction between different oxidation states of deposited Fed. Our calculations suggest that during the daytime, large fractions of Fed deposited to the global oceans is likely to be in Fe(II) form, while nocturnal fluxes of Fed are largely in Fe(III) form. Model simulations also show that atmospheric fluxes of Fed can be strongly influenced by the mineralogy of Fe-containing compounds. This study shows that Fed deposition to the oceans is controlled by total dust-Fe mass concentrations, mineralogy, the surface area of dust particles, atmospheric chemical composition, cloud processing, and meteorological parameters and exhibits complex and spatiotemporally variable patterns. Our study suggests that the explicit model representation of individual processes leading to Fed production within mineral dust are needed to improve the understanding of the atmospheric Fe cycle, and quantify the effect of dust-Fe on ocean biological productivity, carbon cycle, and climate.

Johnson, M. S.↗