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The problem of determining effective dimensions of the region of global galactic cosmic ray modulation from the data on 11 year cosmic ray variations and the data on the parameters of the solar activity and the solar wind is discussed.
The relationship between solar r-modes (long-period oscillations dominated by the Coriolis force) and solar activity cycles is investigated statistically. FFT power spectra of the daily Zurich sunspot numbers (R) and of the Greenwich Photoheliographic projected whole sunspot area (A) are obtained for the high-activity years of solar cycles 14 through 21. Both R and A are found to exhibit periods of 22 + or - 1 d, 34 + or - 1.5 d, and 43 + or - 2 d, corresponding to r-modes with (l,m) angular harmonics (2,2), (3,1), and (2,1), respectively.
Upflowing ionospheric ion (UFI) data from the DE 1 energetic ion composition spectrometer, acquired from near the maximum to the minimum of solar cycle 21, were used to determine the UFI outflow rate as a function of geomagnetic and solar activity conditions. Its solar and magnetic dependences were parameterized empiricaly. It was found that the ion outflow rate increases exponentially with Kp by a factor of 20 for O(+) and 4 for H(+) from Kp = 0 to 6.
The principal features of the thermodynamic regime of the stratosphere are governed by the development of the winter stratospheric low and the Aleutian and Atlantic heights. These are fed by the influx of the eddy energy transported into the stratosphere by the planetary waves. The intensity and variability of planetary waves and vortices associated with the waves determine the conditions of low-to-high latitudes ozone transport in the winter hemisphere. The ozone distributions are zonally inhomogeneous. The planetary wave dynamics are affected by solar activity variations during solar cycles. The 20th solar cycle maximum was accompanied by decreases of stratospheric planetary wave amplitudes, the 21st cycle was accompanied by increases of amplitudes.
This report describes work done in support of the Solar Irradiance and Thermospheric Air-glow Rocket Experiments at the University of Colorado for NASA grant NAG5-5021 under the direction of Dr. Stanley C. Solomon. (The overall rocket program is directed by Dr. Thomas N. Woods, formerly at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and now also at the University of Colorado, for NASA grant NAG5-5141.) Grant NAG5-5021 provided assistance to the overall program through analysis of airglow and solar data, support of two graduate students, laboratory technical services, and field support. The general goals of the rocket program were to measure the solar extreme ultraviolet spectral irradiance, measure the terrestrial far-ultraviolet airglow, and analyze their relationship at various levels of solar activity, including near solar minimum. These have been met, as shown below. In addition, we have used the attenuation of solar radiation as the rocket descends through the thermosphere to measure density changes. This work demonstrates the maturity of the observational and modeling methods connecting energetic solar photon fluxes and airglow emissions through the processes of photoionization and photoelectron production and loss. Without a simultaneous photoelectron measurement, some aspects of this relationship remain obscure, and there are still questions pertaining to cascade contributions to molecular and atomic airglow emissions. However, by removing the solar irradiance as an "adjustable parameter" in the analysis, significant progress has been made toward understanding the relationship of far-ultraviolet airglow emissions to the solar and atmospheric conditions that control them.
The goal of this LWS tools effort is the development of a new data-based F-region TOpside and PLAsmasphere (TOPLA) model for the electron density (Ne) and temperature (Te) for inclusion in the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model using newly available satellite data and models for these regions. The IRI model is the de facto international standard for specification of ionospheric parameters and is currently being considered as an ISO Technical Specification for the ionosphere. Our effort is directed towards improving the topside part of the model and extending it into the plasmasphere. Specifically we are planning to overcome the following shortcomings of the current IRI topside model: (I) overestimation of densities above 700 km by a factor of 2 and more, (3) unrealistically steep density profiles at high latitudes during very high solar activities, (4) no solar cycle variations and no semi-annual variations for the electron temperature, (5) discontinuities or unphysical gradients when merging with plasmaspheric models. We will report on first accomplishments and on the current status of the project.
The magnetic polarity pattern observed by Voyager 2 (V2) evolved with time from a nearly equal mixture of positive and negative polarity sectors in the sector zone from 2007.00 to 2007.67 to nearly uniform positive polarity (magnetic fields directed away from the Sun) in the unipolar zone from 2009.6 to 2010.3. This change was caused by the decreasing latitudinal extent of the sector zone, when the minimum extent of the heliospheric current sheet moved northward toward the solar equator as the solar activity associated with solar cycle 23 decreased a minimum in 2010. In the heliosheath, the distribution of daily averages of the magnetic field strength B was lognormal in the sector zone from 2008.83 to 2009.57 and Gaussian in the unipolar zone from 2009.57 to 2010.27. The distribution of daily increments of B was a Tsallis distribution (q-Gaussian distribution) with q = 1.66 +/- 0.010 in the sector zone and . Gaussian (q = 1.01+/-0.29) in the unipolar zone. The unipolar region appears to be in a relatively undisturbed equilibrium state.
Mission of the Geospace Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) is: Gain s cientific understanding (to the point of predictability) of how populations of relativistic electrons and ions in space form or change in response to changes in solar activity and the solar wind.
This paper describes the development of X-ray diffractive optics for imaging solar flares with better than 0.1 arcsec angular resolution. X-ray images with this resolution of the greater than or equal to 10 MK plasma in solar active regions and solar flares would allow the cross-sectional area of magnetic loops to be resolved and the coronal flare energy release region itself to be probed. The objective of this work is to obtain X-ray images in the iron-line complex at 6.7 keV observed during solar flares with an angular resolution as fine as 0.1 arcsec - over an order of magnitude finer than is now possible. This line emission is from highly ionized iron atoms, primarily Fe xxv, in the hottest flare plasma at temperatures in excess of approximately equal to 10 MK. It provides information on the flare morphology, the iron abundance, and the distribution of the hot plasma. Studying how this plasma is heated to such high temperatures in such short times during solar flares is of critical importance in understanding these powerful transient events, one of the major objectives of solar physics.We describe the design, fabrication, and testing of phase zone plate X-ray lenses with focal lengths of approximately equal to 100 m at these energies that would be capable of achieving these objectives. We show how such lenses could be included on a two-spacecraft formation-flying mission with the lenses on the spacecraft closest to the Sun and an X-ray imaging array on the second spacecraft in the focal plane approximately equal to 100 m away. High resolution X-ray images could be obtained when the two spacecraft are aligned with the region of interest on the Sun. Requirements and constraints for the control of the two spacecraft are discussed together with the overall feasibility of such a formation-flying mission.
Despite drastically different plasma conditions in the two systems, eruptive energy release events in solar active regions and in Earth’s magnetosphere have a lot in common. Both solar active region eruptions and the substorm activity in the nightside magnetosphere are known to be associated with an abrupt large-scale reorganization of the supporting magnetic systems enabling the conversion and dissipation of the stored free magnetic energy. The rate of energy accumulation in either system tends to be by orders of magnitude slower than the energy release rate, leading to the formation of an impulsive loading-unloading cycle involving a relatively long pre-reconnection phase (substorm growth phase, pre-flare stressing of an active region magnetic field), a short and explosive reconnection phase (substorm breakup and expansion, eruptive flares and CMEs), and a prolonged post-reconnection phase (substorm recovery phase and the post-flare active region reconfiguration). In Earth’s magnetosphere, this loading-unloading cycle is diagnosed by monitoring characteristic changes in the particle precipitation pattern in the northern and southern auroral ovals marking the boundary between the open and close magnetic flux. The position, shape, structure, and dynamics of the auroral borealis were shown to communicate critically important information about an upcoming substorm, the location and timing of the initial reconnection onset, and the subsequent return of the magnetosphere to a lower-energy state. On the Sun, a similar role is played by the chromospheric flare ribbons which enable a detailed diagnostics of the overlying reconnecting magnetic field. In this talk, we’ll discuss similarities and differences in using auroral and flare ribbon observations for monitoring eruptive energy release in respectively Earth’s magnetosphere and solar corona. Special emphasis will be placed on the quantitative interpretation of the two types of optical signatures for empirical diagnostics of the underlying reconnection activity and for constraining its theoretical models. We’ll also compare forecasting capabilities of the two types of optical signatures in the context of space weather prediction objectives.
As part of the ongoing process of trying to understand the physical processes at work in the Sun, the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft was launched on February 14, 1980, near the height of the solar cycle, to enable the solar physics community to examine, in more physically meaningful detail than ever before, the most violent aspect of solar activity: flares. The scientific products of SMM are substantial: by 1986, over 400 papers based on SMM observations and their interpretations had appeared in scientific journals. More important than such numerical measures of success is the significance of the science that has come from SMM. The following topics, the Sun as a star, solar flares, and the active solar atmosphere, as well as other findings of SMM investigators are described. The instruments on the SMM are also described.
It is shown that the direct method of solar activity correction for lunar XRF data produces XRF data with better statistics than uncorrected data. Direct measurements of the solar flux made by Solrad 10 are converted to emissions of the sun from two assumed temperature regions. These emissions are ratioed to produce emission measure ratios, sensitive indicators of shifts in solar activity. The Tucker-Koren model (1971) of the solar flux is used in the calculation of EMRs and in the calculation of theoretical lunar Si, Al, and Mg fluorescence of maria and highland soils. Al/Si(Mg/Si) ratios calculated at a 'normal' EMR of 0.030 are divided by Al/Si(Mg/Si) ratios at particular EMRs. The relationship between EMR and the quotients of this division, called 'correction factors', is well explained by empirically derived power law functions.
Solar luminosity variations occurring during solar cycle 21 can be attributed in large part to the presence of sunspots and faculae. Nevertheless, there remains a residual portion of the luminosity variation distinctly unaccounted for by these phenomena of solar activity. At the Santa Catalina Laboratory for Experimental Relativity by Astrometry (SCLERA), observations of the solar limb are capable of detecting changes in the solar limb darkening function by monitoring a quantity known as the differential radius. These observations are utilized in such a way that the effects of solar activity are minimized in order to reveal the more fundamental structure of the photosphere. The results of observations made during solar cycle 21 at various solar latitudes indicate that a measurable change did occur in the global photospheric limb darkening function. It is proposed that the residual luminosity change is associated in part with this change in limb darkening.
The high inclination orbit for the International Space Station poses a risk to astronauts on EVA during occasional periods of enhanced high energy particle flux from the sun known as Solar Particle Events. We are currently unable to predict these events within the few-hour lead time required for evasive action. Compounding the threat is the fact that station construction occurs during increasing solar activity and through the peak of the solar cycle. In this paper we present an overview of the risk, the current methods to provide forecasts of SPEs, and potential risk mitigation options.
This study develops a new Bubble Index to quantify the intensity of 2-D postsunset equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) in the American/Atlantic sector, using Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) nighttime data. A climatology and day-to-day variability analysis of EPBs is conducted based on the newly-derived Bubble Index with the following results: (a) EPBs show considerable seasonal and solar activity dependence, with stronger (weaker) intensity around December (June) solstice and high (low) solar activity years. (b) EPBs exhibit opposite geomagnetic activity dependencies during different storm phases: EPBs are intensified concurrently with an increasing Kp, but are suppressed with high Kp occurring 3–6 hr earlier. (c) For the first time, we found that EPBs' day-to-day variation exhibited quasi-3-day and quasi-6-day periods. A coordinated analysis of Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) winds and ionosonde data suggests that this multi-day periodicity was related to the planetary wave modulation through the wind-driven dynamo.
The maximum slope of the sunspot number during the rising phase of a sunspot cycle has an excellent correlation with the maximum value of the sunspot number during that cycle. This is demonstrated using a Savitzky–Golay filter to both smooth and calculate the derivative of the sunspot-number data. Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number (S) is used to represent solar activity. The maximum of the slope during the rising phase of each cycle was correlated against the peaks of solar activity. Using three different correlation fits, the average predicted amplitude for Solar Cycle 25 is 130.7 ± 0.5, among the best correlations in solar predictions. A possible explanation for this correlation is given by the similar behavior of a shape function representing the time variation of the sunspot number. This universal function also provides the timing of the solar maximum by the time from the slope maximum to the peak in the function as late 2023 or early 2024. A Hilbert transform gives similar results, which are caused by the dominance of the 11-yr sunspot-cycle period in a Fourier fit of the sunspot number.
The density of interplanetary dust increases sunward to reach its maximum in the F corona, where its scattered white-light emission dominates that of the electron K corona above about 3 Solar Radius. The dust will interact with both the particles and fields of antisunward propagating coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To understand the effects of the CME/dust interactions we consider the dominant forces, with and without CMEs. acting on the dust in the 3-5 Solar Radius region. Dust grain orbits are then computed to compare the drift rates from 5 to 3 Solar Radius. for periods of minimum and maximum solar activity, where a simple CME model is adopted to distinguish between the two periods. The ion-drag force, even in the quiet solar wind, reduces the drift time by a significant factor from its value estimated with the Poynting-Robertson drag force alone. The ion-drag effects of CMEs result in even shorter drift times of the large (greater than or approx. 3 microns) dust grains. hence faster depletion rates and lower dust-pain densities, at solar maxima. If dominated by thermal emission, the near-infrared brightness will thus display solar cycle variations close to the dust plane of symmetry. While trapping the smallest of the grains, the CME magnetic fields also scatter the grains of intermediate size (0.1-3 microns) in latitude. If light scattering by small grains close to the Sun dominates the optical brightness. the scattering by the CME magnetic fields will result in a solar cycle variation of the optical brightness distribution not exceeding 100% at high latitudes, with a higher isotropy reached at solar maxima. A good degree of latitudinal isotropy is already reached at low solar activity since the magnetic fields of the quiet solar wind so close to the Sun are able to scatter the small (less than or approx. 3 microns) grains up to the polar regions in only a few days or less, producing strong perturbations of their trajectories in less than half their orbital periods. Finally, we consider possible observable consequences of individual CME/dust interactions. We show that the dust grains very likely have no observable effect on the dynamics of CMEs. The effect of an individual CME on the dust grains, however, might serve as a forecasting tool for the directions and amplitudes of the magnetic fields within the CME.
The application of high-spectral resolution microwave observations to the study of solar activity is discussed with particular emphasis on the frequency dependence of microwave emission from solar active regions. A shell model of gyroresonance emission from active regions is described which suggest that high-spectral resolution, spatially-resolved observations can provide quantitative information about the magnetic field distribution at the base of the corona. Corresponding observations of a single sunspot with the Owens Valley frequency-agile interferometer at 56 frequencies between 1.2 and 14 Ghs are presented. The overall form of the observed size and brightness temperature spectra was consistent with expectations based on the shell model, although there were differences of potential physical significance. The merits and weaknesses of microwave spectroscopy as a technique for measuring magnetic fields in the solar corona are briefly discussed.