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NASA NTRS1985

Space Shuttle booster thrust imbalance analysis

An analysis of the Shuttle SRM thrust imbalance during the steady-state and tailoff portions of the boost phase of flight are presented. Results from flights STS-1 through STS-13 are included. A statistical analysis of the observed thrust imbalance data is presented. A 3 sigma thrust imbalance history versus time was generated from the observed data and is compared to the vehicle design requirements. The effect on Shuttle thrust imbalance from the use of replacement SRM segments is predicted. Comparisons of observed thrust imbalances with respect to predicted imbalances are presented for the two space shuttle flights which used replacement aft segments (STS-9 and STS-13).

Bailey, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

The discrimination of sea ice types using SAR backscatter statistics

X-band (HH) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data of sea ice collected during the Marginal Ice Zone Experiment in March and April of 1987 was statistically analyzed with respect to discriminating open water, first-year ice, multiyear ice, and Odden. Odden are large expanses of nilas ice that rapidly form in the Greenland Sea and transform into pancake ice. A first-order statistical analysis indicated that mean versus variance can segment out open water and first-year ice, and skewness versus modified skewness can segment the Odden and multilayer categories. In additions to first-order statistics, a model has been generated for the distribution function of the SAR ice data. Segmentation of ice types was also attempted using textural measurements. In this case, the general co-occurency matrix was evaluated. The textural method did not generate better results than the first-order statistical approach.

Shuchman, Robert A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Objective Verification of the North American Mesoscale Model for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers use the 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) text and graphical product forecasts extensively to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) has not been measured objectively. In order to have tangible evidence of model performance, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct a detailed statistical analysis of model output compared to observed values. The model products are provided to the 45 WS by ACTA, Inc. and include hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The objective analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point, as well as the changes in these parameters over time, to the observed values from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. Objective statistics will give the forecasters knowledge of the model's strength and weaknesses, which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating reaction parameters in mechanism-enabled population balance models of nanoparticle size distributions: A Bayesian inverse problem approach

In order to quantitatively predict nano- as well as other particle-size distributions, one needs to have both a mathematical model and estimates of the parameters that appear in these models. Here, we show how one can use Bayesian inversion to obtain statistical estimates for the parameters that appear in recently derived mechanism-enabled population balance models (ME-PBM) of nanoparticle growth. The Bayesian approach addresses the question of “how well do we know our parameters, along with their uncertainties?.” The results reveal that Bayesian inversion statistical analysis on an example, prototype $\mathrm{lr(0)_n}$ nanoparticle formation system allows one to estimate not just the most likely rate constants and other parameter values, but also their SDs, confidence intervals, and other statistical information. Moreover, knowing the reliability of the mechanistic model's parameters in turn helps inform one about the reliability of the proposed mechanism, as well as the reliability of its predictions. Importantly, the paper can also be seen as a tutorial with the additional goal of achieving a “Gold Standard” Bayesian inversion ME-PBM benchmark that others can use as a control to check their own use of this methodology for other systems of interest throughout nature. Overall, the results provide strong support for the hypothesis that there is substantial value in using a Bayesian inversion methodology for parameter estimation in particle formation systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1980

Effect of production processes on the fracture strength of silicon solar cells

Fracture of Czochralski silicon wafers during processing is an important factor in solar cell yield and cost. A fracture-mechanics test and analysis program was developed to evaluate fracture strength changes in the in-process wafer-to-cell processing at different stages on a manufacturer's production line. The strength data were described by Weibull statistical analysis and can be interpreted with the surface-flaw distribution of each of the process steps.

Chen, C. P.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Nanoflare Evidence from Analysis of the X-Ray Variability of an Active Region Observed with Hinode/XRT

The investigation of the heating mechanisms of the confined coronal plasma is still under intense debate. It is widely believed that the energy source for coronal heating is the magnetic energy stored in the solar corona. An unsolved problem is how this magnetic energy is converted into thermal energy of the confined coronal plasma. As Parker proposed in 1988 rapid pulses called nanoflares are among the best candidate mechanisms of magnetic energy release. Nowadays a challenging problem is to obtain evidence that such nanoflares are really at work. If small energy discharges (nanoflares) contribute in some way to coronal heating, they could be too small and frequent to be resolved as independent events. In this case, we would need to search for indirect evidence. The idea of this work is that, if the solar corona emission is sustained by repeated nanoflares, locally the X-ray emission may not be entirely constant but may show variations around the mean intensity. So the nanoflares may leave their signature on the light curves. Many authors (Shimizu & Tsuneta 1997; Vekstein & Katsukawa 2000; Katsukawa & Tsuneta 2001; Katsukawa 2003; Sakamoto et al. 2008) pointed out that a detailed analysis of intensity fluctuations of the coronal X-ray emission could give us information on these smallest flares. Following this hint we use this approach for the first time on Hinode data, searching, with statistical analysis, for small but systematic variability in noisy background light curves and their link to coronal heating models.

Terzo, S.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Specification of ISS Plasma Environment Variability

Quantifying spacecraft charging risks and associated hazards for the International Space Station (ISS) requires a plasma environment specification for the natural variability of ionospheric temperature (Te) and density (Ne). Empirical ionospheric specification and forecast models such as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model typically only provide long term (seasonal) mean Te and Ne values for the low Earth orbit environment. This paper describes a statistical analysis of historical ionospheric low Earth orbit plasma measurements from the AE-C, AE-D, and DE-2 satellites used to derive a model of deviations of observed data values from IRI-2001 estimates of Ne, Te parameters for each data point to provide a statistical basis for modeling the deviations of the plasma environment from the IRI model output. Application of the deviation model with the IRI-2001 output yields a method for estimating extreme environments for the ISS spacecraft charging analysis.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utilizing Advanced Statistics to Determine Anomalistic Conditions in Pebble-Bed Reactors

Pebble-bed reactors (PBRs) utilize hundreds of thousands of fuel pebbles, which continuously circulate through the core, in lieu of traditional fuel assemblies to generate fissions and produce power. The use of unmarked fuel pebbles presents a challenge for international safeguards verification that nuclear material is not being diverted. To ensure pebble diversion is not taking place, new methods for accounting for and monitoring the pebbles should be examined to determine an appropriate methodology for performing bulk accountancy with pebbles. Here, this work examines the use of statistical methods for determining if the reactor is within a declared range of operation by examining the statistical distribution of pebble burnup as they are discharged from the core. Using this methodology, we created a model that detects diversion over 95% of the time, over multiple diversion pathways, if the reactor core maintains a constant power density during the diversion process and only falsely labels a diversion case nominal 2% of the time. For a diversion scenario where the reactor is maintained at a constant power, the statistical analysis can correctly identify if diversion is occurring over 80% of the time; however, nearly 20% of specific diversion pathways are mislabeled nominal. These results provide a basis and framework for exploring the further use of statistical methods to determine where these methods could be most useful and where additional methods, such as machine learning, could be used to capture if diversion is occurring in pebble-bed reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1987

Mercurian crater-filling classes constrain the emplacement process of the intercrater plains material

The multivariate method for statistical analysis of crater-filling classes, as presently applied to craters of more than 10-km diameter on Mercury, is noted to be superior to current techniques due to the obviation of any amalgamation of data from regions with different histories in order to arrive at the pertinent counting statistics. In this application to the Mercury intercrater plains, the process responsible for emplacement is constrained to be one that leaves the crater class distribution unaltered from that observed on the densely cratered terrain. The analysis explicitly eliminates the viability of the pulse emplacement of volcanics or basin ejecta.

Woronow, Alex↗

NASA NTRS1978

Rigidity-independent coronal propagation and escape of solar protons and alpha particles

In a study of rigidity-independent coronal propagation processes, data on the azimuthal variation of the solar proton/alpha-particle ratio were obtained. Sources for the data included a statistical analysis of events observed by Heos-2, a comparative study of events recorded by both Heos-2 and Pioneer-10 and -11, and a multiday survey of individual events observed by Heos-2 and Pioneer-10. The statistical investigation of Heos-2 events reveals an increase of the lower value of the proton/alpha-particle ratio away from the well-connected region. The data from one or two spacecraft connected at different heliolongitudes indicates no azimuthal dependence of the proton/alpha-particle ratio. All the data appear to suggest rigidity-independent propagation or escape processes.

Perron, C.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Mesospheric ozone changes associated with 27-day solar ultraviolet flux variations

Solar ultraviolet flux changes associated with the 27-day solar rotational period cause corresponding variations in mesospheric ozone near the maximum of the 11-year sunspot cycle. This statement is based on a correlation and spectral analysis of ozone mixing ratios, deduced from Solar Mesospheric explorer satellite-based measurements of 1.27-micron O2 airglow emission and solar flux observations made from the same spacecraft in 1982. With the Lyman-alpha flux taken as an indicator of solar ultraviolet variability, spectral analysis shows a primary period of 27.1 days with a secondary period of 13.5 days. The 27.1-day period is observed in the ozone mixing ratio data together with other periods, including 13.5 days. Both a classical statistical analysis and a time series treatment show that, for 244 days, there is a correlation between ozone and solar flux near 50 km and between 65 and 70 km. Calculations predict a positive correlation over the entire mesosphere if there is no change in temperature accompanying the solar flux. Lack of correlation is temperature induced.

Aikin, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Comparison of Methods for Assessing Space Suit Joint Ranges of Motion

Through the Advanced Exploration Systems Program, NASA is attempting to use the vast collection of space suit mobility data from 50 years worth of space suit testing to build predictive analysis tools to aid in early architecture decisions for future missions and exploration programs. However, the design engineers must first understand if and how data generated by different methodologies can be compared directly and used in an essentially interchangeable manner. To address this question, the isolated joint range of motion data from two different test series were compared. Both data sets were generated from participants wearing the Mark III Space Suit Technology Demonstrator (MK-III), Waist Entry I-suit (WEI), and minimal clothing. Additionally the two tests shared a common test subject that allowed for within subject comparisons of the methods that greatly reduced the number of variables in play. The tests varied in their methodologies: the Space Suit Comparative Technologies Evaluation used 2D photogrammetry to analyze isolated ranges of motion while the Constellation space suit benchmarking and requirements development used 3D motion capture to evaluate both isolated and functional joint ranges of motion. The isolated data from both test series were compared graphically, as percent differences, and by simple statistical analysis. The results indicated that while the methods generate results that are statistically the same (significance level p= 0.01), the differences are significant enough in the practical sense to make direct comparisons ill advised. The concluding recommendations propose direction for how to bridge the data gaps and address future mobility data collection to allow for backward compatibility.

Aitchison, Lindsay↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Comparison of Methods for Assessing Space Suit Joint Ranges of Motion

Through the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Program, NASA is attempting to use the vast collection of space suit mobility data from 50 years worth of space suit testing to build predictive analysis tools to aid in early architecture decisions for future missions and exploration programs. However, the design engineers must first understand if and how data generated by different methodologies can be compared directly and used in an essentially interchangeable manner. To address this question, the isolated joint range of motion data from two different test series were compared. Both data sets were generated from participants wearing the Mark III Space Suit Technology Demonstrator (MK-III), Waist Entry I-suit (WEI), and minimal clothing. Additionally the two tests shared a common test subject that allowed for within subject comparisons of the methods that greatly reduced the number of variables in play. The tests varied in their methodologies: the Space Suit Comparative Technologies Evaluation used 2-D photogrammetry to analyze isolated ranges of motion while the Constellation space suit benchmarking and requirements development used 3-D motion capture to evaluate both isolated and functional joint ranges of motion. The isolated data from both test series were compared graphically, as percent differences, and by simple statistical analysis. The results indicated that while the methods generate results that are statistically the same (significance level p= 0.01), the differences are significant enough in the practical sense to make direct comparisons ill advised. The concluding recommendations propose direction for how to bridge the data gaps and address future mobility data collection to allow for backward compatibility.

Aitchison, Lindsay T.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation into the instantaneous centre of rotation for enhanced design of floating offshore wind turbines

The dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) involves complex interactions of multivariate loads from wind, waves, and currents, which result in complex motion characteristics. Although methods for analysing global motion responses are well-established, the time- and location-dependent kinematics remain underexplored. This paper investigates the instantaneous centre of rotation (ICR), a point of zero velocity at a time instance of general plane motion. Understanding and strategically positioning the ICR can reduce the dynamic motion in critical structural locations, enhancing the performance and structural robustness of FOWTs. The paper presents a method for computing the ICR using time-domain simulation results and proposes a statistical analysis approach suitable for design studies. Building on prior research, it examines the sensitivity of the ICR to external loading and design features, providing insights into how these factors influence motion response and how the motion response influences the statistics of the ICR, structural loads, and other performance metrics of interest. The study explores two FOWT configurations, a spar and a semisubmersible, identifying design variables that most effectively control the ICR statistics and identifying the ICR statistics most correlated with the responses of interest. Finally, through two case studies, we demonstrate how to apply these new insights in a practical design scenario. By adjusting the design variables most correlated with the ICR (fairlead vertical position and centre of mass for the spar and mooring line length and offset column diameter for the semisubmersible), we successfully modified the designs of the floating support structures to reduce the loads in the mooring lines, tower base, and blade roots, improving the ultimate strength and fatigue characteristics compared to the original designs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1976

Shuttle onboard IMU alignment methods

The current approach to the shuttle IMU alignment is based solely on the Apollo Deterministic Method. This method is simple, fast, reliable and provides an accurate estimate for the present cluster to mean of 1,950 transformation matrix. If four or more star sightings are available, the application of least squares analysis can be utilized. The least squares method offers the next level of sophistication to the IMU alignment solution. The least squares method studied shows that a more accurate estimate for the misalignment angles is computed, and the IMU drift rates are a free by-product of the analysis. Core storage requirements are considerably more; estimated 20 to 30 times the core required for the Apollo Deterministic Method. The least squares method offers an intermediate solution utilizing as much data that is available without a complete statistical analysis as in Kalman filtering.

Henderson, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The sun at minimum activity: Results from the CELIAS experiment on SOHO

The charge element and isotope analysis system (CELIAS) experiment, designed to continuously measure the composition of the solar wind and solar suprathermal particles, is presented. Information on proton velocity, kinetic temperature, density and out-of-ecliptic flow angle is obtained. A preliminary statistical analysis of proton parameters and freeze-in temperatures, obtained during the first 18 months of the operation of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), is presented. The first determinations of neon isotopic abundances with CELIAS yielded an excellent agreement with the Apollo-foil experiment. The magnesium isotopic composition in the solar wind agrees with the data acquired from earth.

Bochsler, P.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Thermoelastic Stress Analysis: The Mean Stress Effect in Metallic Alloys

The primary objective of this study involved the utilization of the thermoelastic stress analysis (TSA) method to demonstrate the mean stress dependence of the thermoelastic constant. Titanium and nickel base alloys, commonly employed in aerospace gas turbines, were the materials of interest. The repeatability of the results was studied through a statistical analysis of the data. Although the mean stress dependence was well established, the ability to confidently quantify it was diminished by the experimental variations. If calibration of the thermoelastic response to mean stress can be successfully implemented, it is feasible to use the relationship to determine a structure's residual stress state.

Gyekenyesi, Andrew L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Modeling of Instrument Landing System (ILS) localizer signal on runway 25L at Los Angeles International Airport

A joint NASA/FAA flight test has been made to record instrument landing system (ILS) localizer receiver signals for use in mathematically modeling the ILS localizer for future simulation studies and airplane flight tracking tasks. The flight test was conducted on a portion of the ILS localizer installed on runway 25L at the Los Angeles International Airport. The tests covered the range from 10 to 32 n.mi. from the localizer antenna. Precision radar tracking information was compared with the recorded localizer deviation data. Data analysis showed that the ILS signal centerline was offset to the left of runway centerline by 0.071 degrees and that no significant bends existed on the localizer beam. Suggested simulation models for the ILS localizer are formed from a statistical analysis.

Hueschen, Richard M.↗