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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

EFBMC

SAND2026-23986O EFBMC performs elastic Bayesian model calibration by applying Bayesian statistics and functional analysis. The software provides Python, R, and MATLAB scripts that enable users to calibrate models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Tucker, J. Derek [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), L↗
DOE OSTI2026

First Sterile Neutrino Search at NOvA Experiment Using both Neutrino and Anti-Neutrino Data

NOvA is a long-baseline experiment with two functionally identical detectors with a Near Detector placed 1 km from the neutrino source at Fermilab and a Far Detector 810 km away at Ash River, Minnesota. NOvA uses a very high-intensity ($\sim$900 kW) beam of neutrinos and antineutrinos from Fermilab's NuMI beamline, together with two functionally identical detectors placed 14 mrad off the beam axis. NOvA is built to investigate the complex properties of neutrinos with an emphasis on neutrino oscillations. NOvA not only probes active neutrino mixing but also explores exotic oscillations, including sterile neutrino searches. This analysis uses the joint $\nu_{\mu}$ and neutral current (NC) disappearance channels to probe active-sterile mixing in the 3+1 model. Furthermore, this analysis leverages our statistics of 27$\times$10$^{20}$ protons on target (POT) in neutrino mode and 12.5$\times$10$^{20}$ protons on target (POT) in antineutrino mode. In this poster, we will present the first dual-baseline search for sterile neutrinos using both the neutrino and antineutrino datasets.

Chaudhary, S. [Indian Inst. Tech., Guwahati]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Status and prospects of Muon g-2 experiment

This article reviews the muon g-2 experiment, a cornerstone in precision tests of the Standard Model of particle physics. The experiment measures the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon with unprecedented accuracy, seeking potential discrepancies between theoretical predictions and experimental results that might indicate physics beyond the Standard Model. We trace the evolution of this measurement from its beginnings at CERN in the 1960s to the current state-of-the-art experiment at Fermilab, highlighting the remarkable engineering achievements required to achieve parts-per-billion precision. Recent results from Runs 1-3 have achieved a systematic uncertainty of 70 ppb, exceeding design goals, while ongoing theoretical calculations continue to refine predictions. Despite these advances, the analysis remains statistics-limited, with continued data collection and novel experimental approaches at MUonE and J-PARC promising further insights into this fundamental physical quantity.

Karuza, Marin [INFN, Trieste; Rijeka U.] (ORCID:00↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Method for Setting Meaningful Thresholds for RMS-Energy Oscillation Detectors

Oscillation detection and mitigation is a crucial aspect of reliable power system operation. Several transmission system operators and reliability coordinators use the RMS-energy method of oscillation detection, but the process of setting thresholds is time and labor intensive. The current industry practice in the United States is to set thresholds based on the RMS-energy's value during ambient conditions, which can often lead to nuisance alarms that require thresholds to be manually retuned. In this paper, we propose a method for setting RMS-energy thresholds that directly accounts for oscillation amplitudes specified by the user. A theoretical analysis of the statistical properties of the RMS-energy incorporates these user-specified amplitudes, resulting in thresholds that reliably detect oscillations of interest while avoiding nuisance alarms. Theoretical results are validated with simulated measurements and the real-world practicality of the method is established with publicly available field-measured data from the Grid Event Signature Library.

Follum, James D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A New Sample of Gamma-Ray Emitting Jetted Active Galactic Nuclei—Preliminary Results

We are compiling a new list of gamma-ray jetted active galactic nuclei (AGN), starting from the fourth catalog of point sources of the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). Our aim is to prepare a list of jetted AGN with known redshifts and classifications to be used to calibrate jet power. We searched in the available literature for all the published optical spectra and multiwavelength studies useful to characterize the sources. We found new, missed, or even forgotten information leading to a substantial change in the redshift values and classification of many sources. We present here the preliminary results of this analysis and some statistics based on the gamma-ray sources with right ascension within the interval 0 h --12 h (J2000). Although flat-spectrum radio quasars and BL Lac objects are still the dominant populations, there is a significant increase in the number of other objects, such as misaligned AGN, narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies, and Seyfert galaxies. We also introduced two new classes of objects: changing-look AGN and ambiguous sources. About one third of the sources remain unclassified.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the "Getting to Zero" strategy in Illinois, USA

Objectives: Getting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies. Methods: A study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016-2030). Results: All three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals. Conclusions: Increasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

One-to-one aeroservoelastic validation of operational loads and performance of a 2.8 MW wind turbine model in OpenFAST

Abstract. This article presents a validation study of the popular aeroservoelastic code suite OpenFAST leveraging weeks of measurements obtained during normal operation of a 2.8 MW land-based wind turbine. Measured wind conditions were used to generate one-to-one turbulent flow fields (i.e., comparing simulation to measurement in 10 min increments, or bins) through unconstrained and constrained assimilation methods using the kinematic turbulence generators TurbSim and PyConTurb. A total of 253 bins of 10 min of normal turbine operation were selected for analysis, and a statistical comparison in terms of performance and loads is presented. We show that successful validation of the model was not strongly dependent on the type of inflow assimilation method used for mean quantities of interest, which had median modeling errors per wind-speed interval generally within 5 %–10 % of the measurement. The type of inflow assimilation method did have a larger effect on the fatigue predictions for blade-root flapwise and tower-base fore–aft quantities, which surprisingly saw larger errors from the assumed higher-fidelity assimilation methods. Avenues for further work are discussed and include possible improvements to the aerodynamic, structural, and controller modeling that may offer insight on the origin of the up to ∼ 40 % median overprediction of fatigue for these quantities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying experimental edge plasma evolution via multidimensional adaptive Gaussian process regression

The edge density and temperature of tokamak plasmas are strongly correlated with energy and particle confinement and their quantification is fundamental to understanding edge dynamics. These quantities exhibit behaviours ranging from sharp plasma gradients and fast transient phenomena (e.g. transitions between low and high confinement regimes) to nominal stationary phases. Analysis of experimental edge measurements therefore require robust fitting techniques to capture potentially stiff spatiotemporal evolution. Additionally, fusion plasma diagnostics inevitably involve measurement errors and data analysis requires a statistical framework to accurately quantify uncertainties. This paper outlines a generalized multidimensional adaptive Gaussian process routine capable of automatically handling noisy data and spatiotemporal correlations. We focus on the edge-pedestal region in order to underline advancements in quantifying time-dependent plasma profiles including transport barrier formation on the Alcator C-Mod tokamak.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Topological Machine Learning Methods for Power System Responses to Contingencies: Preprint

While deep learning tools, coupled with the emerging machinery of topological data analysis, are proven to deliver various performance gains in a broad range of applications, from image classification to biosurveillance to blockchain fraud detection, their utility in areas of high societal importance such as power system modeling and, particularly, resilience quantification in the energy sector yet remain untapped. To provide fast acting synthetic regulation and contingency reserve services to the grid while having minimal disruptions on customer quality of service, we propose a new topologybased system that depends on neural network architecture for impact metrics classification and prediction in power systems. This novel topology-based system allows one to evaluate the impact of three power system contingency types, namely, in conjunction with transmission lines, transformers, and transmission lines combined with transformers. We show that the proposed new neural network architecture equipped with local topological measures facilitates both more accurate classification of unserved load as well as the amount of unserved load. In addition, we are able to learn complex relationships between electrical properties and local topological measurements on the simulated response to contingencies for NREL-SIIP power system.

graph theory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fuel Property Effects on Stochastic Preignition Events During Engine Load Transitions

Stochastic preignition (SPI) is an abnormal combustion phenomenon that can cause catastrophic engine damage. There have been several proposed mechanisms of SPI, where a uniform source is still not certain, however, SPI tendencies have been shown to be influenced by engine operating conditions, oil composition, engine age, and fuel chemical and physical properties. Laboratory research and testing for SPI propensity is challenging given the stochastic nature of events, as well as the potential for significant degradation of the engine platform and measuring equipment over time. Thus, SPI specific experiments are generally conducted under either sustained or cyclic patterning of steady-state operating conditions to avoid the influence of transient engine boundary conditions on test parameters of interest (e.g. oil additive package, fuel properties, engine speed/load, etc.). In this work a cyclically varying SPI test sequence involves a 5 min engine warmup period at a low engine load of around 4 bar gross indicated mean effective pressure (IMEPg), followed by a transition to high load (~20 bar IMEPg) at a constant 2000 rev/min engine speed for a total of 25 min. This individual test sequence load schedule is then sequentially repeated 10 times to generate significant statistical data for analysis. This work examines the influence of fuel chemical and physical properties on SPI tendency during the unsteady portion of the 10-cycle sequence (the first 5 min of the high load operation in each sequence of the loading cycle) which has been discarded from previous analyses due to the uncertainty in engine operating and thermal boundary conditions. Results from this analysis suggest an increasing trend in the ratio of SPI events during the unsteady test period relative to the steady test period with increasing fuel Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), implying differences in uncontrolled ignition source terms, possibly from, fuel wall interactions and retention during the load transition phase of the test.

Splitter, Derek [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000174044047)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical Significance Testing for Mixed Priors: A Combined Bayesian and Frequentist Analysis

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it incorporates Occam’s razor via the multiplicity or trials factor in the look-elsewhere effect. However, if the prior is not known completely, the frequentist hypothesis test via the false-positive rate is a better approach, as it is less sensitive to the prior choice. We argue that when only partial prior information is available, it is best to combine the two methodologies by using the Bayes factor as a test statistic in the frequentist analysis. We show that the standard frequentist maximum likelihood-ratio test statistic corresponds to the Bayes factor with a non-informative Jeffrey’s prior. We also show that mixed priors increase the statistical power in frequentist analyses over the maximum likelihood test statistic. We develop an analytic formalism that does not require expensive simulations and generalize Wilks’ theorem beyond its usual regime of validity. In specific limits, the formalism reproduces existing expressions, such as the p-value of linear models and periodograms. We apply the formalism to an example of exoplanet transits, where multiplicity can be more than 10 7 . We show that our analytic expressions reproduce the $p$-values derived from numerical simulations. We offer an interpretation of our formalism based on the statistical mechanics. We introduce the counting of states in a continuous parameter space using the uncertainty volume as the quantum of the state. We show that both the $p$-value and Bayes factor can be expressed as an energy versus entropy competition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

TDCOSMO - IV. Hierarchical time-delay cosmography – joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles

The H0LiCOW collaboration inferred via strong gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant value of H0 = 73.3−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars (constant mass-to-light ratio) plus standard dark matter halos. The mass-sheet transform (MST) that leaves the lensing observables unchanged is considered the dominant source of residual uncertainty in H0. We quantify any potential effect of the MST with a flexible family of mass models, which directly encodes it, and they are hence maximally degenerate with H0. Our calculation is based on a new hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the MST is only constrained by stellar kinematics. The approach is validated on mock lenses, which are generated from hydrodynamic simulations. We first applied the inference to the TDCOSMO sample of seven lenses, six of which are from H0LiCOW, and measured H0 = 74.5−6.1+5.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. Secondly, in order to further constrain the deflector mass density profiles, we added imaging and spectroscopy for a set of 33 strong gravitational lenses from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample. For nine of the 33 SLAC lenses, we used resolved kinematics to constrain the stellar anisotropy. From the joint hierarchical analysis of the TDCOSMO+SLACS sample, we measured H0 = 67.4−3.2+4.1 km s−1 Mpc−1. This measurement assumes that the TDCOSMO and SLACS galaxies are drawn from the same parent population. The blind H0LiCOW, TDCOSMO-only and TDCOSMO+SLACS analyses are in mutual statistical agreement. The TDCOSMO+SLACS analysis prefers marginally shallower mass profiles than H0LiCOW or TDCOSMO-only. Without relying on the form of the mass density profile used by H0LiCOW, we achieve a ∼5% measurement of H0. While our new hierarchical analysis does not statistically invalidate the mass profile assumptions by H0LiCOW – and thus the H0 measurement relying on them – it demonstrates the importance of understanding the mass density profile of elliptical galaxies. The uncertainties on H0 derived in this paper can be reduced by physical or observational priors on the form of the mass profile, or by additional data.Key words: gravitational lensing: strong / galaxies: general / galaxies: kinematics and dynamics / distance scale / cosmological parameters / cosmology: observations⋆ The full analysis is available at https://github.com/TDCOSMO/hierarchy_analysis_2020_public.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Petrographic and Advanced Geologic Characterization Report on One Earth Energy #1 (API# 1211325373)

The One Earth Energy #1 (OEE1, API 1211325373) well was drilled to a depth of 7,099 feet from the Pennsylvanian bedrock to the Precambrian granite. In total, 99 thin sections were taken from Rotary Sidewall Core (RSWC) from 2,275 feet to 6,903 feet; 59 thin sections were taken from Whole Core (WC) from 4,311.5 to 6,519.2 feet for this report. This report details specifically thin section point-counting analysis that includes mineralogical and pore space analysis, including grain size analysis annotated thin section photomicrographs, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), and statistics of grain size analysis on Mount Simon thin sections from OEE1. Characterized units include the St. Peter Sandstone, Eminence Formation, Potosi Dolomite, Franconia Formation, Davis Member, Ironton Sandstone, Galesville Sandstone, Eau Claire Formation, Elmhurst Sandstone, Mt. Simon Sandstone, and Argenta Formation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Geology of the One Earth Energy Site

The One Earth Energy site is one of two sites in the Illinois Storage Corridor (ISC) project. The objectives of the ISC project is to accelerate commercial deployment of carbon capture utilization and storage at two individual sites and receive approvals for Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permits for construction at each site. At the One Earth Energy site, an extensive data collection program was undertaken, which included the drilling of a test well (One Earth Energy #1 [OEE #1]), four 2D seismic lines, and a small 3D seismic survey. The OEE #1 well was drilled in 2022 and acquired extensive core, log, and testing data to characterize the subsurface geology of the site. Coring was focused on the storage interval, the Mt. Simon Sandstone, and the confining interval, the Eau Claire Formation. The core and log data were used to evaluate the sedimentology and sequence stratigraphy, as well as to develop the conceptual geologic model. This report includes the geological summaries of the Mt. Simon Sandstone and the Eau Claire Formation. The extensive analysis of the log data is included in the petrophysical section, showing ranges of porosity, estimated pore size, and the mineral content of selected zones in the well. The separate petrographic technical report entitled “Petrographic and Advanced Geologic Characterization Report on One Earth Energy #1 (API# 1211325373)”, report number DOE-UIUC-0031892-04, details thin section point-counting analysis that includes mineralogical and pore space analysis, including grain size analysis, annotated thin section photomicrographs, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), and statistics of grain size analysis on Mt. Simon thin sections from OEE #1. The final OEE #1 well data to be included in this geology report is the routine core analysis of both whole core plugs and rotary sidewall core plugs. In addition to the OEE #1 well, four 2D seismic lines and a small 3D survey were acquired as part of the overall subsurface geological characterization. This geology report references the seismic interpretation report, entitled “One Earth Energy Site Seismic Interpretation Task 5.0”, report number DOE-UIUC-0031892-07. This report details the stratigraphic and structural interpretation of the 2D and 3D seismic data acquired at the One Earth Energy site. The 2D seismic data was acquired in 2019 and 2021, and the 3D survey was acquired in 2022. The objectives of the seismic programs were to contribute to the subsurface characterization of the Mt. Simon-Eau Claire Storage Complex by evaluating the continuity of potential storage reservoirs and containment intervals across the project area, and to determine if any geologic features are present that would increase containment risk to the proposed carbon storage project.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Improved Decision Making for the Smarter Grid: Geomagnetic Disturbance Implicit Modeling Uncertainty Quantification

Geomagnetic disturbances can greatly disrupt the power grid operation. This is caused by low-frequency changes in the earth’s magnetic field, which upon interaction with the deep earth conductivity induces a changing electric field at the earth’s surface. This in turn induces quasi-direct currents which have the potential to cause protective devices to operate, widespread damage to high-voltage transformers, or voltage collapse due to induced reactive power losses. While these impacts have been known since the 1940s, only recently have standards for GMD response been implemented. Because these standards are heavily based on models, it is important to understand when it is appropriate to make certain modeling assumptions. In this work, implicit modeling uncertainty is quantified for the purpose of enhanced decision making for disturbance impact mitigation. Considering electromagnetic models, modeling assumptions of non-uniform grounding, imbalanced operation, transformer saturation, and geomagnetically induced currents, voltage estimation values are analyzed. Statistical characteristics of modeling uncertainty are obtained by analysis of synthetically generated data. Results statistically characterize geomagnetic disturbances modeling uncertainty, providing an important tool for impact mitigation.

grid analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Petrographic and Advanced Geologic Characterization Report on Lively Grove #1 (API# 1218924947)

Lively Grove #1 (LG1 API number 1218924947) well was drilled to a depth of 5,758 feet, from the Glen Dean Limestone to the top of the Precambrian unit. In total, 49 thin sections were taken from Rotary Sidewall Core (RSWC), and one thin section was taken from Whole Core (2,918 feet, New Albany Shale) from 1,700 to 5,872 feet for this report. This report details specifically thin section point-counting analysis that includes mineralogical and pore space analysis, including grain size analysis annotated thin section photomicrographs, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with Energy Dispersive x-ray Spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray Diffraction (XRD), statistics of grain size analysis on St. Peter Sandstone thin sections, and Argon-Argon (Ar-Ar) dating on Precambrian samples from LG1. Characterized units include the Salem Limestone, New Albany Shale, Trenton Group, Joachim Dolomite, St. Peter Sandstone, Everton Formation, Eminence Formation, Davis Member, Eau Claire Formation, and Precambrian Basement.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of Parity-Violating Modes of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 Luminous Red Galaxies' 4-Point Correlation Function

Here we report the first measurement of the parity-violating (PV) 4-Point Correlation Function (4PCF) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument's Year 1 Luminous Red Galaxy (DESI Y1 LRG) sample, motivated by the potential detection of the PV 4PCF in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (SDSS BOSS) galaxies. In our auto-correlation ("auto") analysis, we find a statistically significant excess of the PV signal compared to mocks without any PV, at 4-10$σ$ depending on details of the analysis. This could arise either from genuine PV or from an underestimation of the variance in the mocks; it is unlikely to arise, at the signal level, from a systematic. We then cross-correlate ("cross") the putative PV signal between different, independent patches of sky, and there find no detection of parity violation. The two measurements are in significant tension: while the cross has somewhat larger error bars than the auto, this is not sufficient to explain the discrepancy. We thus present the current work as an intriguing addition to the PV work on BOSS and as motivation for exploring further the relationship between the auto and cross PV 4PCF analyses.

Slepian, Zachary [Florida U.]↗