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DOE OSTI2023

The value of fusion energy to a decarbonized United States electric grid

Fusion could be a part of future decarbonized electricity systems, but it will need to compete with other technologies. In particular, pulsed tokamak plants have a unique operational mode, and evaluating which characteristics make them economically competitive can help select between design pathways. Using a capacity expansion and operations model, here we determined cost thresholds for pulsed tokamaks to reach a range of penetration levels in a future decarbonized US Eastern Interconnection. The required capital cost to reach a fusion capacity of 100 GW varied from $2,700 to $7,500 kW -1 , and the equilibrium penetration increases rapidly with decreasing cost. The value per unit power capacity depends on the variable operational cost and on the cost of its competition, particularly fission, much more than on the pulse cycle parameters. These findings can therefore provide initial cost targets for fusion more generally in the United States.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Environmental stress mediates groundwater microbial community assembly

Community assembly describes how different ecological processes shape microbial community composition and structure. How environmental factors impact community assembly remains elusive. Here we sampled microbial communities and >200 biogeochemical variables in groundwater at the Oak Ridge Field Research Center, a former nuclear waste disposal site, and developed a theoretical framework to conceptualize the relationships between community assembly processes and environmental stresses. We found that stochastic assembly processes were critical (>60% on average) in shaping community structure, but their relative importance decreased as stress increased. Dispersal limitation and ‘drift’ related to random birth and death had negative correlations with stresses, whereas the selection processes leading to dissimilar communities increased with stresses, primarily related to pH, cobalt and molybdenum. Assembly mechanisms also varied greatly among different phylogenetic groups. As a result, our findings highlight the importance of microbial dispersal limitation and environmental heterogeneity in ecosystem restoration and management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rational Selection of Transition-Metal Oxide Electrocatalysts from Structure Electronic Structure-Activity Relations: The Role of Defects, Strain, and Sub-Surface Layering

This BES research investigates the physicochemical properties of metal oxides and how they affect electrocatalytic functionalities. The goal is to develop a predictive framework for realizing top-performing electrocatalytic materials for energy-critical reactions. The hypothesis is that well-defined thin films allow detailed mapping of structural-activity relationships because flat surfaces are more straightforward to characterize. Furthermore, the well-defined nature of thin-film metal oxides allows precise tuning of structural and chemical variables for structure-activity-relationship mapping. The proposed research has two technical objectives. The first is to experimentally assess whether the binding energies of surface oxygen can serve as an activity descriptor for oxygen electrocatalysis on metal oxides and then how to control them by tuning the structure and chemical variables. The second is to find the rate-limiting process in oxygen electrocatalysis and other small-molecule reactions. Similar mechanistic insights have been developed on well-defined platinum surfaces but not yet on oxides. This research addresses this gap and uses electrochemistry and X-ray photoemission spectroscopy to study oxide surface chemistry. The obtained insights are collectively analyzed to reveal how the oxides’ structural and chemical variables affect kinetics and can be used to design more active electrocatalysts for energy-critical reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Accuracy of Property Model Predictions for Cost Optimization of Desalination Technologies

Accurate modeling of seawater thermophysical and thermodynamic properties is critical for optimizing desalination processes. This study compares three seawater property models, a Reaktoro multicomponent model, the thermophysical seawater properties library from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and a simplified sodium chloride model, in the context of levelized cost of water (LCOW) minimization for reverse osmosis (RO) and mechanical vapor compression systems. Process simulations and cost optimizations reveal that although all three models yield comparable LCOW and specific energy consumption (SEC) estimates under baseline conditions, deviations among their predictions increase with salinity. Relative differences in LCOW and SEC reach up to 6% and 8%, respectively. RO results show greater variability due to differences in osmotic pressure predictions, which affect pressure constraints at high recoveries. Computational performance varies substantially; specifically, Reaktoro simulations are up to 28 times slower than empirical models due to their detailed equilibrium calculations. These results suggest that empirical models offer acceptable accuracy for routine desalination process design, while Reaktoro provides advantages in scenarios requiring detailed speciation, such as scaling or pH adjustment studies. These findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate property models based on the modeling objective of desalination applications and motivate future work integrating thermodynamic rigor with empirical efficiency.

Physical and chemical properties↗

DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge of lactation amenorrhea method among postpartum women in Ethiopia: a facility-based cross-sectional study

While the importance of knowledge about contraceptives in improving their utilization and thereby reducing the risk of unintended pregnancies is well documented, there are limited studies documented about the Lactational Amenorrhea Method (LAM). Thus, understanding the knowledge of postpartum mothers about LAM is essential for designing tailored interventions. This study assessed the level of knowledge about LAM and its associated factors among postpartum mothers in Ethiopia. A facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 3148 randomly selected postpartum participants. The study utilized multistage sampling approach in hospitals located across five regions and one city administration in Ethiopia. Data were collected using face-to-face interviews at discharge. A participant was categorized as having knowledge of LAM if she correctly answered the three LAM criteria: amenorrhea, the first 6 months, and exclusive breast feeding. A binary logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with knowledge of LAM. Variables with p < 0.25 in the binary logistic regression were included in the multiple logistic regression. Then, associations were described using the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) along with the 95% confidence interval (CI), and statistical significance was declared at p < 0.05. Only four in 10 participants (40.6%; 95% CI 38.9–42.3) had knowledge of LAM. Participants who attended college or above educational level (AOR = 2.1, 95% CI 1.5–2.8), those with parity of two (AOR = 2.3; 95% CI 1.6–3.6) or more than two (AOR = 2.4; 95% CI 1.5–4.0), those who expressed a desire for further fertility (AOR = 1.3; 95% CI 1.1–1.5), individuals who received counselling on LAM (AOR = 3.0; 95% CI 2.6–3.7), and those who gave birth in hospital (AOR = 2.6; 95% CI 1.4–2.6) had higher odds of knowledge about LAM, compared to their counter parts. In contrary, participants resided far away from health facilities had 30% lower odd of knowledge about LAM compared to those resided near the health facilities (AOR = 0.70; 95% CI 0.6–0.8). The proportion of participants who had knowledge of LAM was low. Strengthening counseling about LAM during antenatal care and delivery with due attention to women with limited access to health facilities should be considered for increasing their level of knowledge on LAM.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sparsified time-dependent Fourier neural operators for fusion simulations

This paper presents a sparsified Fourier neural operator for coupled time-dependent partial differential equations (ST-FNO) as an efficient machine learning surrogate for fluid and particle-based fusion codes such as NIMROD (Non-Ideal Magnetohydrodynamics with Rotation - Open Discussion) and GTC (Gyrokinetic Toroidal Code). ST-FNO leverages the structures in the governing equations and utilizes neural operators to represent Green's function-like numerical operators in the corresponding numerical solvers. Once trained, ST-FNO can rapidly and accurately predict dynamics in fusion devices compared with first-principle numerical algorithms. In general, ST-FNO represents an efficient and accurate machine learning surrogate for numerical simulators for multi-variable nonlinear time-dependent partial differential equations, with the proposed architectures and loss functions. The efficacy of ST-FNO has been demonstrated using quiescent H-mode simulation data from NIMROD and kink-mode simulation data from GTC. The ST-FNO H-mode results show orders of magnitude reduction in memory and central processing unit usage in comparison with the numerical solvers in NIMROD when computing fields over a selected poloidal plane. The ST-FNO kink-mode results achieve a factor of 2 reduction in the number of parameters compared to baseline FNO models without accuracy loss.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Linezolid-resistant (Tn 6246 :: fexB - poxtA ) Enterococcus faecium strains colonizing humans and bovines on different continents: similarity without epidemiological link

Abstract Objectives poxtA is the most recently described gene conferring acquired resistance to linezolid, a relevant antibiotic for treating enterococcal infections. We retrospectively screened for poxtA in diverse enterococci and aimed to characterize its genetic/genomic contexts. Methods poxtA was screened by PCR in 812 enterococci from 458 samples (hospitals/healthy humans/wastewater/animals/retail food) obtained in Portugal/Angola/Tunisia (1996–2019). Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed for 13 antibiotics (EUCAST/CLSI). poxtA stability (∼500 generations), transfer (filter mating), clonality (SmaI-PFGE) and location (S1-PFGE/hybridization) were tested. WGS (Illumina-HiSeq) was performed for clonal representatives. Results poxtA was detected in Enterococcus faecium from six samples (1.3%): a healthy human (rectal swab) in Porto, Portugal (ST32/2001); four farm cows (milk) in Mateur, Tunisia (ST1058/2015); and a hospitalized patient (faeces) in Matosinhos, Portugal (ST1058/2015). All expressed resistance to linezolid (MIC = 8 mg/L), chloramphenicol, tetracycline and erythromycin, with variable resistance to ciprofloxacin and streptomycin. ST1058-poxtA-carrying isolates from Tunisia and Portugal differed by two SNPs and had similar plasmid content. poxtA, located in an IS1216-flanked Tn6246-like element, co-hybridized with fexB on one or more plasmids per isolate (one to three plasmids of 30–100 kb), was stable after several generations and transferred only from ST1058. ST1058 strains carried resistance/virulence genes (Efmqnr/acm) possibly induced under selective quinolone treatment. Conclusions poxtA has been circulating in Portugal since at least 2001, corresponding to the oldest description worldwide to date. We also extend the reservoir of poxtA to bovines. The similar linezolid-resistant poxtA-carrying strains colonizing humans and livestock on different continents, and without a noticeable relationship, suggests a recent transmission event or convergent evolution of E. faecium populations in different hosts and geographic regions.

Freitas, Ana R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Unveiling the Occupational Exposure to Microbial Contamination in Conservation–Restoration Settings

Assuring a proper environment for the fulfillment of professional activities is one of the Sustainable Development Goals and is contemplated in the One Health approach assumed by the World Health Organization. This particular study is applied to an often neglected sector of our society—the conservators/restorers—despite the many health issues reported by these professionals. Three different specialties (textiles, paintings and wood sculpture) and locations were selected for evaluation by placement of electrostatic dust cloths. After treatment of the samples, bacterial and fungal contamination were assessed, as well as mycotoxin determination, the presence of azole-resistant strains and cytotoxicity of the microorganisms encountered. Bacteria were only present in one of medias used and showed relatively low numbers. The highest level of contamination by fungi was identified in one of the textiles settings. The textile area also showed the highest variability for fungi. Aspergillus sp. are one indicator of possible environmental issues, and A. sections Fumigati and Circumdati were particularly relevant in two of the settings and identified in all of them. No mycotoxins were detected and the large majority of the fungi identified were non-cytotoxic. Overall, these can be considered low-contaminated environments but attention should be given to the Aspergillus sp. contamination. Additional studies are needed not only to make these results more robust, but also to test if the environmental sampling alone is the best approach in a setting where there is very little movement and dust displacement and where professionals are in very close proximity to the artefacts being treated, which may suggest the existence of a micro-atmosphere worth evaluating and comparing to the obtained results.

Viegas, Carla (ORCID:0000000215456479)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Earth as a Proxy Exoplanet: Deconstructing and Reconstructing Spectrophotometric Light Curves

Point-source spectrophotometric (single-point) light curves of Earth-like planets contain a surprising amount of information about the spatial features of those worlds. Spatially resolving these light curves is important for assessing time-varying surface features and the existence of an atmosphere, which in turn is critical to life on Earth and significant for determining habitability on exoplanets. Given that Earth is the only celestial body confirmed to harbor life, treating it as a proxy exoplanet by analyzing time-resolved spectral images provides a benchmark in the search for habitable exoplanets. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) provides such an opportunity, with observations of ∼5000 full-disk sunlit Earth images each year at 10 wavelengths with high temporal frequency. We disk-integrate these spectral images to create single-point light curves and decompose them into principal components (PCs). Using machine-learning techniques to relate the PCs to six preselected spatial features, we find that the first and fourth PCs of the single-point light curves, contributing ∼83.23% of the light-curve variability, contain information about low and high clouds, respectively. Surface information relevant to the contrast between land and ocean reflectance is contained in the second PC, while individual land subtypes are not easily distinguishable (<0.1% total light-curve variation). We build an Earth model by systematically altering the spatial features to derive causal relationships to the PCs. This model can serve as a baseline for analyzing Earth-like exoplanets and guide wavelength selection and sampling strategies for future observations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

wavess 1.2: presenting an HLA-aware within-host virus sequence simulation framework

Motivation Understanding how virus sequences are shaped by selection can inform vaccine design and transmission inference. Modeling within-host evolution to interrogate these questions requires a detailed mechanistic framework that accurately captures sequence diversification. The CD8 + cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response plays an important role in immune-mediated selection and can leave strong signatures in virus sequences; however, existing sequence-based within-host virus modeling frameworks do not explicitly include a human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-aware CTL response. Results We extended our previously published within-host sequence evolution simulator, wavess, to include an explicit CTL response, and share a method for identifying HLA-specific CTL epitopes given a founder virus sequence. We also updated the model to permit a variable recombination rate, which allows for modeling non-adjacent genes, segmented genomes, and recombination hotspots. These extensions to wavess allow for more accurate simulation of viruses and virus genes, particularly in regions of the genome where the immune response is dominated by CTLs (rather than antibodies). It also provides the foundation for investigations of how these newly-added biological mechanisms influence within-host evolution. Availability and implementation The core of wavess is written in Python 3, with helper functions written in R. It is available at https://github.com/MolEvolEpid/wavess.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

TROPHY: A Topologically Robust Physics-Informed Tracking Framework for Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive weather systems. Realistically and efficiently detecting and tracking TCs are critical for assessing their impacts and risks. In particular, the eye is a signature feature of a mature TC. Therefore, knowing the eyes’ locations and movements is crucial for both operational weather forecasts and climate risk assessments. Recently, a multilevel robustness framework has been introduced to study the critical points of time-varying vector fields. The framework quantifies the robustness (i.e., structural stability) of critical points across varying neighborhoods. By relating the multilevel robustness with critical point tracking, the framework has demonstrated its potential in cyclone tracking. An advantage is that it identifies cyclonic features using only 2D wind vector fields, which is encouraging as most tracking algorithms require multiple dynamic and thermodynamic variables at different altitudes. A disadvantage is that the framework does not scale well computationally for datasets containing a large number of cyclones. Herein this paper introduces a topologically robust physics-informed tracking framework (TROPHY) for TC tracking. The main idea is to integrate physical knowledge of TC to drastically improve the computational efficiency of multilevel robustness framework for large-scale climate datasets. First, during preprocessing, we propose a physics-informed feature selection strategy to filter 90% of critical points that are short-lived and have low stability, thus preserving good candidates for TC tracking. Second, during in-processing, we impose constraints during the multilevel robustness computation to focus only on physics-informed neighborhoods of TCs. We apply TROPHY to 30 years of 2D wind fields from reanalysis data in ERA5 and generate a number of TC tracks. In comparison with the observed tracks, we demonstrate that TROPHY can capture TC characteristics (e.g., frequency, intensity, duration, latitudes with maximum intensity, and genesis) that are comparable to and sometimes even better than a well-validated TC tracking algorithm that requires multiple dynamic and thermodynamic scalar fields.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reconstruction of Six-Dimensional Phase Space

A phase space is a mathematical representation of all possible physical states of a system. Particle beams at Fermilab exist within a six-dimensional (6D) phase space defined by three positional components, (x, y, z) and three momentum components, (px, py, pz). To reconstruct this space implies taking measurement data from detectors and mapping out particle behavior using computational methods. The beam detectors, however, are only able to detect spatial distribution among the events of the beam, therefore being limited to positional data. Also, due to the vast number of events in a particle beam, it is extremely difficult to analyze and differentiate every single one’s behavior. However, with Machine Learning (ML), which can distinguish between patterns and map out particle behavior more efficiently. We first used the particle beam software, G4beamline, to simulate a 10,000-event muon beam, adjusting parameters such as initial momentum magnitude (p¬0) and virtual detector position. Using ten virtual detectors, we analyzed p0 values such that minimum 9,990 events were analyzed by every detector. We then input the data from these beam simulations to a C++ program, that randomly selects 100 events, and creates a 2D histogram based on spatial distribution, detector position, and event intensity. This process is repeated 100 times to create 100 histograms per p0 value. These images were then input to a modified ResNet18 Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for training, and to predict p0 from some unseen set of histograms. The model was accurate when trained on momentum increments of 5 MeV/c and provided with denser training samples around highly variable test values. These results displayed machine learning being able to accurately predict p0 from being trained on different particle behaviors.

Shirlee, Jermain [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Structure-guided design of a broadly cross-reactive multivalent group a streptococcal vaccine

The M protein of group A streptococci (Strep A) is a major virulence determinant and protective antigen. The N-terminal region of the M protein is variable in sequence, defines the M/emm type, and contains epitopes that elicit opsonic antibodies that protect animals from challenge infections. Although there are >200 M types of Strep A, there is now evidence that structurally related M proteins can be grouped into clusters and that immunity may be cluster-specific in addition to M type-specific. This observation has led to recent studies of structure-based design of multivalent M peptide vaccines to select peptides predicted to cross-react with heterologous M types to improve vaccine coverage. In the current study, we have applied a refined series of peptide structural algorithms to predict immunological cross-reactivity among 117N-terminal M peptides representing the most prevalent M types of Strep A. Based on the results of the structural analyses, in combination with global M type prevalence data, we constructed a 32-valent vaccine containing 19 cross-reactive vaccine candidates predicted to cross-react with 37 heterologous M peptides to which were added 13 type-specific M peptides. Further, the 4-protein recombinant vaccine was immunogenic in rabbits and elicited significant levels of antibodies against 31/32 (97%) vaccine peptides and 28/37 (76%) peptides predicted to cross-react. The vaccine antisera also promoted opsonophagocytic killing of vaccine and cross-reactive M types of Strep A. Based on a recent analysis of M type prevalence of Strep A, the potential global coverage of the 32-valent vaccine is ~90%, ranging from 68% in Africa to 95% in North America. Our results indicate the utility of structure-based design that may be applied to future studies of broadly protective M peptide vaccines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Air Source Heat Pumps in Very Cold Climates

Air source heat pumps (ASHPs) in heating mode use a refrigeration cycle to remove heat from the outside air and transfer it into a building. Therefore, ASHPs have the potential to save energy compared to conventional heat sources that create the heat as opposed to transferring it from outside. Many cold climate ASHPs available on the market today can operate at outside temperatures of -25 degrees C (-13 degrees F) or even lower. As a result of technological advances and other factors, there is growing interest in ASHPs in cold climates, including very cold regions such as Alaska. However, guidance on the selection, installation, and operation of ASHPs in these very cold climates is limited, as significant data gaps exist regarding the performance of ASHPs in very cold environments. To address these data gaps and guide future innovations, our research team has studied the field performance of several ASHP installations in Alaska and done lab evaluations of several ASHP models using a cold chamber. While a cold chamber cannot fully reflect field conditions, it allowed for changing one variable at a time and gaining additional understanding of the behavior of ASHPs that would be difficult to gain from field studies only. This study focused on two main variables: the temperature in the chamber (representing the outdoor temperature) and the level of thermal loading of the ASHP. The results from the field as well as the lab show that ASHPs can operate with relatively high efficiency even in very cold climates if used in appropriate situations and in an appropriate way. It was found that not only the outside temperature, but also the level of thermal loading is a significant factor affecting the ASHP efficiency and needs to be carefully considered when sizing and operating ASHPs in very cold climates.

air source heat pump↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing long-term monitoring of radiation air-dose rates after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

Radiation air dose rates near the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) have been steadily decreasing over the past eight years since the release of radioactive elements in March 2011. Currently, the radiation monitoring program is expected to transition to long-term monitoring after most of the remediation activities are completed. The main long-term monitoring objectives are to (1) confirm the continuing reduction of contaminant and hazard levels, (2) provide assurance for the public, (3) accumulate the basic datasets for scientific knowledge and future preparation, and (4) detect changes or anomalies in contaminant mobility (if they occur), or any unexpected processes or events. In this work, we have developed a methodology for optimizing the monitoring locations of radiation air dose-rate monitoring. Our approach consists of three steps in order to determine monitoring locations in a systematic manner: (1) prioritizing the critical locations, such as schools or regulatory requirement locations, (2) diversifying locations that cover the key environmental controls that are known to influence contaminant mobility and distributions, and (3) capturing the heterogeneity of radiation air-dose rates across the domain. Therefore, for the second step, we use a Gaussian mixture model to identify the representative locations among multiple environmental variables, such as elevation and land-cover types. For the third step, we use a Gaussian process model to capture and estimate the heterogeneity of air-dose rates across the domain. Employing an integrated dose-rate map derived from Bayesian geostatistical methods as a reference map, we distribute the monitoring locations in such a way as to capture the heterogeneity of the reference map. Our results have shown that this approach allows us to select monitoring locations in a systematic manner such that the heterogeneity of air dose rates is captured by the minimal number of monitoring locations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Efficient prediction of concentrating solar power plant productivity using data clustering

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants convert solar energy to electricity and can be deployed with a thermal storage capability to shift electricity generation from time periods with available solar resource to those with high electricity demand or electricity price. Rigorous optimization of plant design and operational strategies can improve the market-competitiveness and commercial viability; however, such optimization may require hundreds of annual performance simulations, each of which can be computationally expensive when including considerations such as optimization of dispatch scheduling, sub-hourly time resolution, and stochastic effects due to uncertain weather or electricity price forecasts. This paper proposes a methodology to reduce the computational burden associated with simulation of electricity yield and revenue for CSP plants over a single- or multi-year period. Data-clustering techniques are employed to select a small number of limited-duration time blocks for simulation that, when appropriately weighted, can reproduce generation and revenue over a single year or within each year of a multi-year period. After selection of appropriate data features and weighting factors defining similarity between time-series profiles, the methodology captured annual revenue within 2.3%, 1.7%, or 1.2% using simulation of 10, 30, or 50 three-day exemplar time blocks, respectively, for each of three single-year location/weather/market scenarios and five plant configurations ranging from low to high solar multiple and storage capacity. When applied to multi-year datasets, the proposed methodology can capture inter-year variability that is unavailable from typical meteorological year (TMY) datasets while simultaneously requiring simulation of less than a single year of data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗