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At least 703 records · Page 39

2021 Monthly Rice Production in Chinese Coastal Provinces

This paper explores the dynamics of rice production in the Chinese provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang and seeks to predict monthly rice production in the months of April through October using precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as the predictor variables available. We utilize ridge and lasso regression models to predict the rice yield. Results indicate that a lasso regression model with an R 2 value of 0.9991501 with an adjusted R 2 value of 0.9991502 and a ridge regression model with an R 2 value of 0.9865443 with an adjusted R 2 value of 0.9870637 are possible. The lasso regression model does not account for all predictor variables while the ridge regression model does. Both models could be expanded upon to include more observations.

Tubbs, Heidi↗

Photoneutron Production Using an Electron Linear Accelerator for Applications in Neutron Imaging

Photoneutron production is possible using an electron linear accelerator and a target capable of generating photonuclear reactions. A short pulse neutron source can be useful for neutron imaging dynamic experiments. This study is aimed at the feasibility of photoneutron production using a 20 MeV electron linear accelerator and tungsten and depleted uranium targets of various thicknesses. MCNP6 (Monte Carlo N-Particle) code will be used to develop a computational model to estimate total neutron yield, and this will be verified at the Idaho State University’s Accelerator Center. After verification of the neutron yield and energy spectra, an additional MCNP6 model will be developed to analyze the neutron imaging processes. This study will potentially prove it is possible to conduct multi-mode imaging experiments on the anticipated Scorpius electron linear accelerator at the Nevada National Security Sites.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Organic Photovoltaic Efficiency Predictor: Data-Driven Models for Non-Fullerene Acceptor Organic Solar Cells

In the design of organic solar cells, there has been a need for materials with high power conversion efficiencies. Scharber’s model is commonly used to predict efficiency; however, it exhibits poor performance with new non-fullerene acceptor (NFA) devices, since it was designed for fullerene-based devices. In this work, an empirical model is proposed that can be a more accurate alternative for NFA organic solar cells. Additionally, many screening studies use computationally expensive methods. A model based on using semiempirical simplified time-dependent density functional theory (sTD-DFT) as an alternative method can accelerate the calculations and yield a similar accuracy. The models presented in this paper, termed organic photovoltaic efficiency predictor (OPEP) models, have shown significantly lower errors than previous models, with OPEP/B3LYP yielding errors of 1.53% and OPEP/sTD- DFT of 1.55%. As a result, the proposed computational models can be used for the fast and accurate screening of new high-efficiency NFAs/donor pairs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Highly boosted dielectron identification in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A new technique is developed to identify dielectrons (e$^+$e$^-$) with Lorentz boost $γ_\mathrm{L}$$\gt$ 20 that produce one single merged cluster in the electromagnetic calorimeter of the CMS detector. The identification uses two multivariate models: one for the case where both electron tracks are reconstructed, and another where only one of the tracks is reconstructed. The efficiency is determined using proton-proton collision data collected at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. Boosted J/$ψ$ mesons decaying into e$^+$e$^-$ pairs are used to estimate the efficiency of the model with two tracks, yielding an overall efficiency of 80%. The Z $\to$ $μ^+μ^-γ$ events, where the photon converts into a collimated dielectron, are used for the model with a single track, yielding an efficiency of about 60%. A dedicated energy correction for dielectron candidates is also developed using B$^\pm$ $\to$ J/$ψ$K$^\pm$ $\to$ e$^+$e$^-$K$^\pm$ data.

Hayrapetyan, A. [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗

Creating Accurate Methane Emission Inventories through Data-Driven Airborne Survey Strategies: Methods and Results from the Haynesville, Anadarko, and Permian Basins

Significantly reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector can decrease the rate of climate change over the next two decades, buying critical time for a global energy transition. However, emissions inventories that can be used by oil and gas operators and environmental regulators to identify optimal methane emission mitigation strategies are either based on conservative emission factor methods, or are inconsistent between studies due to differences in sampling strategies or survey technologies. We developed a new approach for methane emissions survey design that yields representative basinwide methane emissions inventories by surveying a subset of total assets in a given oil and gas basin. We identify several sampling and analysis principles, including large sample sizes, balanced sampling across oil and gas production, careful survey area definition, and a unified protocol for analysis, to be vital to producing an unbiased estimate of basin-scale emissions that can be reconciled with future studies. We further present results from deploying this strategy in two oil and gas producing regions in the United States: the Haynesville Basin in Texas and Louisiana, and the Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma. Aerial surveys were performed in 2023 using the Insight M LeakSurveyor™ technology. Preliminary results from methane emissions detected by Insight M indicate that aerially detected emissions above roughly 30 kg(CH4)/hr by themselves contribute a fractional loss rate of 1.13% of gross gas production across oil and gas operations in the Haynesville Basin, with aerially detected emissions equivalent to 2.67% of gross gas production in the Woodford Shale. We supplement these aerial estimates with modeled emissions that are below the LeakSurveyor’s survey sensitivity using a recently published inventory-based model of methane emissions, which we update for our survey areas. We then combine our aerial detections with modeled emissions to yield methane emission distributions and inventories that incorporate the full range of potential methane emissions from the smallest to the largest. These results can be used to identify the most effective methane mitigation strategies for our study areas, and can be reconciled with future methane emissions surveys that use different technologies.

Sherwin, Evan (ORCID:0000000321804297)↗

Stellar yields of rotating first stars. I. Yields of weak supernovae and abundances of carbon-enhanced hyper-metal-poor stars

We perform a stellar evolution simulation of first stars and calculate stellar yields from the first supernovae. The initial masses are taken from 12 to 140 M {sub ☉} to cover the whole range of core-collapse supernova progenitors, and stellar rotation is included, which results in efficient internal mixing. A weak explosion is assumed in supernova yield calculations, thus only outer distributed matter, which is not affected by the explosive nucleosynthesis, is ejected in the models. We show that the initial mass and the rotation affect the explosion yield. All the weak explosion models have abundances of [C/O] larger than unity. Stellar yields from massive progenitors of >40-60 M {sub ☉} show enhancement of Mg and Si. Rotating models yield abundant Na and Al, and Ca is synthesized in nonrotating heavy massive models of >80 M {sub ☉}. We fit the stellar yields to the three most iron-deficient stars and constrain the initial parameters of the mother progenitor stars. The abundance pattern in SMSS 0313–6708 is well explained by 50-80 M {sub ☉} nonrotating models, rotating 30-40 M {sub ☉} models well fit the abundance of HE 0107-5240, and both nonrotating and rotating 15-40 M {sub ☉} models explain HE 1327-2326. The presented analysis will be applicable to other carbon-enhanced hyper-metal-poor stars observed in the future. The abundance analyses will give valuable information about the characteristics of the first stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Critical Review of Radiolysis Issues in Water-Cooled Fission and Fusion Reactors: Part I, Assessment of Radiolysis Models

A critical review is presented on modeling of the radiolysis of the coolant water in nuclear power reactors with emphasis on ITER. The review is presented in two parts: In Part I, we assess previous work in terms of compliance with important chemical principles and conclude that no model proposed to date is completely satisfactory, in this regard. Thus, some reactions that have been proposed in various radiolysis models are not elementary in nature and can be decomposed into two or more elementary reactions, some of which are already included in the models. These reactions must be removed in formulating a viable model. Furthermore, elementary reactions between species of like charge are also commonly included, but they can be discounted upon the basis of Coulombic repulsion under the prevailing conditions (T < 350 °C) and must also be removed. Likewise, it is concluded that the current state of knowledge with respect to radiolytic yields (i.e., G-values) is also unsatisfactory. More work is required to ensure that the yields used in radiolysis models are truly “primary” yields corresponding to a time scale of nanoseconds or less. This is necessary to ensure that the impact of the reactions that occur outside of the spurs (ionizing particle tracks in the medium) are not counted twice. In Part II, the authors review the use of the radiolysis models coupled with electrochemical models to predict the water chemistry, corrosion potential, crack growth rate in Type 304 SS, and accumulated damage in the coolant circuits of boiling water reactors, pressurized water reactors, and the test fusion reactor, ITER. Based on experience with fission reactors, the emphasis should be placed on the control of the electrochemical corrosion potential because it is the parameter that best describes the state of corrosion in coolant circuits.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Prediction of the Dynamic Yield Strength of Metals Using Two Structural-Temporal Parameters

The behavior of the yield strength of steel and a number of aluminum alloys is investigated in a wide range of strain rates, based on the incubation time criterion of yield and the empirical models of Johnson-Cook and Cowper-Symonds. In this paper, expressions for the parameters of the empirical models are derived through the characteristics of the incubation time criterion; a satisfactory agreement of these data and experimental results is obtained. The parameters of the empirical models can depend on some strain rate. The independence of the characteristics of the incubation time criterion of yield from the loading history and their connection with the structural and temporal features of the plastic deformation process give advantage of the approach based on the concept of incubation time with respect to empirical models and an effective and convenient equation for determining the yield strength in a wider range of strain rates.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

SU-E-T-385: 4D Radiobiology

Purpose: The linear-quadratic model is the most prevalent model for planning dose fractionation in radiation therapy in the low dose per fraction regimens. However for high-dose fractions, used in SRS/SBRT/HDR treatments the LQ model does not yield accurate predictions, due to neglecting the reduction in the number of sublethal lesions as a result of their conversion to lethal lesions with subsequent irradiation. Proper accounting for this reduction in the number of sublethally damaged lesions leads to the dependence of the survival fraction on the temporal structure of the dose. The main objective of this work is to show that the functional dependence of the dose rate on time in each voxel is an important additional factor that can significantly influence the TCP. Methods: Two SBRT lung plans have been used to calculate the TCPs for the same patient. One plan is a 3D conformal plan and the other is an IMRT plan. Both plans are normalized so that 99.5% of PTV volume receives the same prescription dose of 50 Gy in 5 fractions. The dose rate in each individual voxel is calculated as a function of treatment time and subsequently used in the calculation of TCP. Results: The calculated TCPs show that shorter delivery times lead to greater TCP, despite all delivery times being short compared to the repair half-time for sublethal lesions. Furthermore, calculated TCP(IMRT) =0.308 for the IMRT plan is smaller than TCP(3D) =0.425 for 3D conformal, even though it shows greater tumor hot spots and equal PTV coverage. The calculated TCPs are considerably lower compared to those based on the LQ model for which TCP=1 for both plans. Conclusion: The functional dependence of the voxel-by-voxel dose rate on time may be an important factor in predicting the treatment outcome and cannot be neglected in radiobiological modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Integrating multi-modal remote sensing, deep learning, and attention mechanisms for yield prediction in plant breeding experiments

In both plant breeding and crop management, interpretability plays a crucial role in instilling trust in AI-driven approaches and enabling the provision of actionable insights. The primary objective of this research is to explore and evaluate the potential contributions of deep learning network architectures that employ stacked LSTM for end-of-season maize grain yield prediction. A secondary aim is to expand the capabilities of these networks by adapting them to better accommodate and leverage the multi-modality properties of remote sensing data. In this study, a multi-modal deep learning architecture that assimilates inputs from heterogeneous data streams, including high-resolution hyperspectral imagery, LiDAR point clouds, and environmental data, is proposed to forecast maize crop yields. The architecture includes attention mechanisms that assign varying levels of importance to different modalities and temporal features that, reflect the dynamics of plant growth and environmental interactions. The interpretability of the attention weights is investigated in multi-modal networks that seek to both improve predictions and attribute crop yield outcomes to genetic and environmental variables. This approach also contributes to increased interpretability of the model's predictions. The temporal attention weight distributions highlighted relevant factors and critical growth stages that contribute to the predictions. The results of this study affirm that the attention weights are consistent with recognized biological growth stages, thereby substantiating the network's capability to learn biologically interpretable features. Accuracies of the model's predictions of yield ranged from 0.82-0.93 R 2 ref in this genetics-focused study, further highlighting the potential of attention-based models. Further, this research facilitates understanding of how multi-modality remote sensing aligns with the physiological stages of maize. The proposed architecture shows promise in improving predictions and offering interpretable insights into the factors affecting maize crop yields, while demonstrating the impact of data collection by different modalities through the growing season. By identifying relevant factors and critical growth stages, the model's attention weights provide valuable information that can be used in both plant breeding and crop management. The consistency of attention weights with biological growth stages reinforces the potential of deep learning networks in agricultural applications, particularly in leveraging remote sensing data for yield prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the use of hyperspectral and LiDAR UAV time series data for explaining/interpreting plant growth stages within deep learning networks and forecasting plot-level maize grain yield using late fusion modalities with attention mechanisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting Switchgrass Biomass Yields Using a Spectral Vegetation Index Derived from Multispectral Satellite Imagery

Successful scaling of perennial bioenergy crop production requires a landscape design that optimizes the benefits of finite lands for people, communities, and environments. Utilizing marginal areas is the key to sustainable bioenergy crop production (Ssegane et al., 2015, 2016). Marginal areas are often small-sized lands and unevenly distributed across the agricultural landscape (Ssegane et al., 2016); thus, a systematic, semi-automated remote sensing method is needed as an effective means of estimating bioenergy crop yields across landscapes. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is currently developing a tool, Scaling Up Perennial Bioenergy Economics and Ecosystem Services Tool (SUPERBEEST), to identify marginal agricultural lands and quantify environmental and economic effects of perennial bioenergy crop production systems. The tool aims to provide users a path to foster the sustainable and productive integration of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern agricultural landscape. Reliable, cost-effective, and timely estimation of bioenergy crop yields using remote sensing would help calculate and track the success of integrated bioenergy crops in the landscape for those communities. Argonne previously conducted feasibility studies for estimating biomass yields for bioenergy feedstock, corn and perennial grass using spectral vegetation indices (SVIs)1 derived from optical imagery (Hamada et al., 2015, 2021). In both studies, SVIs, more specifically those sensitive to plant chlorophyll or nitrogen contents, showed potential for estimating or predicting biomass yields with a correlation of determination (R2) ranging from 0.54 to 0.96, indicating a value for further investigation as a viable means of quantifying bioenergy feedstock production across large landscapes. Thus, the goal of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of use of SVIs as a means of estimating or predicting switchgrass biomass yields at harvest using publicly available multispectral satellite imagery. The feasibility analysis was performed using four study areas of mature switchgrass located in Virginia. Objectives are to (1) examine the SVIs and establish their relationships with switchgrass biomass yields at harvest, (2) develop a parsimonious image processing model for predicting at-harvest yields by applying the relationships with the most promising spectral index and (3) map switchgrass yields predicted by the image processing model across the study sites. The calibration to field data will rely on switchgrass biomass yields determined by the baling method, representing a potential challenge to the analysis but an important practical aspect for future applications. With this research design, the study aimed to gain insights into enabling remote sensing-based estimation of bioenergy crop yields in a reliable, cost- effective, and timely manner across large, heterogeneous landscapes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

UNCERTAINTIES IN GALACTIC CHEMICAL EVOLUTION MODELS

We use a simple one-zone galactic chemical evolution model to quantify the uncertainties generated by the input parameters in numerical predictions for a galaxy with properties similar to those of the Milky Way. We compiled several studies from the literature to gather the current constraints for our simulations regarding the typical value and uncertainty of the following seven basic parameters: the lower and upper mass limits of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), the slope of the high-mass end of the stellar IMF, the slope of the delay-time distribution function of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the number of SNe Ia per M {sub ⊙} formed, the total stellar mass formed, and the final mass of gas. We derived a probability distribution function to express the range of likely values for every parameter, which were then included in a Monte Carlo code to run several hundred simulations with randomly selected input parameters. This approach enables us to analyze the predicted chemical evolution of 16 elements in a statistical manner by identifying the most probable solutions, along with their 68% and 95% confidence levels. Our results show that the overall uncertainties are shaped by several input parameters that individually contribute at different metallicities, and thus at different galactic ages. The level of uncertainty then depends on the metallicity and is different from one element to another. Among the seven input parameters considered in this work, the slope of the IMF and the number of SNe Ia are currently the two main sources of uncertainty. The thicknesses of the uncertainty bands bounded by the 68% and 95% confidence levels are generally within 0.3 and 0.6 dex, respectively. When looking at the evolution of individual elements as a function of galactic age instead of metallicity, those same thicknesses range from 0.1 to 0.6 dex for the 68% confidence levels and from 0.3 to 1.0 dex for the 95% confidence levels. The uncertainty in our chemical evolution model does not include uncertainties relating to stellar yields, star formation and merger histories, and modeling assumptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Rapid analysis of composition and reactivity in cellulosic biomass feedstocks with near-infrared spectroscopy

Obtaining accurate chemical composition and reactivity (measures of carbohydrate release and yield) information for biomass feedstocks in a timely manner is necessary for the commercialization of biofuels. Our objective was to use near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy and partial least squares (PLS) multivariate analysis to develop calibration models to predict the feedstock composition and the release and yield of soluble carbohydrates generated by a bench-scale dilute acid pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis assay. Major feedstocks included in the calibration models are corn stover, sorghum, switchgrass, perennial cool season grasses, rice straw, and miscanthus. Here are the results: We present individual model statistics to demonstrate model performance and validation samples to more accurately measure predictive quality of the models. The PLS-2 model for composition predicts glucan, xylan, lignin, and ash (wt%) with uncertainties similar to primary measurement methods. A PLS-2 model was developed to predict glucose and xylose release following pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. An additional PLS-2 model was developed to predict glucan and xylan yield. PLS-1 models were developed to predict the sum of glucose/glucan and xylose/xylan for release and yield (grams per gram). The release and yield models have higher uncertainties than the primary methods used to develop the models. In conclusion, it is possible to build effective multispecies feedstock models for composition, as well as carbohydrate release and yield. The model for composition is useful for predicting glucan, xylan, lignin, and ash with good uncertainties. The release and yield models have higher uncertainties; however, these models are useful for rapidly screening sample populations to identify unusual samples.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of Subsurface Flow Parameters to Gravimetric Variations During Pumping Tests in Unconfined Aquifers

We study the contribution of typically uncertain subsurface flow parameters to gravity changes that can be recorded during pumping tests in unconfined aquifers. We do so in the framework of a Global Sensitivity Analysis and quantify the effects of uncertainty of such parameters on the first four statistical moments of the probability distribution of gravimetric variations induced by the operation of the well. System parameters are grouped into two main categories, respectively, governing groundwater flow in the unsaturated and saturated portions of the domain. We ground our work on the three-dimensional analytical model proposed by Mishra and Neuman (2011), which fully takes into account the richness of the physical process taking place across the unsaturated and saturated zones and storage effects in a finite radius pumping well. The relative influence of model parameter uncertainties on drawdown, moisture content, and gravity changes are quantified through (a) the Sobol' indices, derived from a classical decomposition of variance and (b) recently developed indices quantifying the relative contribution of each uncertain model parameter to the (ensemble) mean, skewness, and kurtosis of the model output. Our results document (i) the importance of the effects of the parameters governing the unsaturated flow dynamics on the mean and variance of local drawdown and gravity changes; (ii) the marked sensitivity (as expressed in terms of the statistical moments analyzed) of gravity changes to the employed water retention curve model parameter, specific yield, and storage, and (iii) the influential role of hydraulic conductivity of the unsaturated and saturated zones to the skewness and kurtosis of gravimetric variation distributions. The observed temporal dynamics of the strength of the relative contribution of system parameters to gravimetric variations suggest that gravity data have a clear potential to provide useful information for estimating the key hydraulic parameters of the system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Open source implementation of glued sphere discrete element method and nonspherical biomass fast pyrolysis simulation

Here, in this research, a glued-sphere Discrete Element Method (DEM) method was implemented in the open-source, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software MFiX. The implementation was verified using a cylinder-wall collision and then validated by simulating the packing and fluidization of non-spherical particles. The validated code was applied to simulate fast pyrolysis of non-spherical biomass particles in a bubbling fluidized bed. The glued sphere occupancy ratio was proposed to quantify the quality of shape resolution using glued sphere. Shape resolution showed significant influence on the packing height in the simulation of particle packing and an occupancy ratio of 80 % was recommended. Its influence is minor in fully fluidized bed but can be 8 times higher in fixed fluidized bed. Three tested heat transfer models predicted similar yields of elongated biomass fast pyrolysis. The solver developed in this research can be used to simulate other multiphase reacting flows involving non-spherical particles.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Search for resonant $ \mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{t}} $ production in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s}=13 $ TeV

A search for a heavy resonance decaying into a top quark and antiquark $ \left(\mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{t}}\right) $ pair is performed using proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s}=13 $ TeV. The search uses the data set collected with the CMS detector in 2016, which corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb$^{–1}$. The analysis considers three exclusive final states and uses reconstruction techniques that are optimized for top quarks with high Lorentz boosts, which requires the use of nonisolated leptons and jet substructure techniques. No significant excess of events relative to the expected yield from standard model processes is observed. Upper limits on the production cross section of heavy resonances decaying to a $ \mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{t}} $ pair are calculated. Limits are derived for a leptophobic topcolor Z$^{'}$ resonance with widths of 1, 10, and 30%, relative to the mass of the resonance, and exclude masses up to 3.80, 5.25, and 6.65 TeV, respectively. Kaluza-Klein excitations of the gluon in the Randall-Sundrum model are excluded up to 4.55 TeV. To date, these are the most stringent limits on $ \mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{t}} $ resonances.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Forbidden scalar dark matter and dark Higgses

As experimental searches for WIMP dark matter continue to yield null results, models beyond the WIMP paradigm have proliferated in order to elude ever improving observational constraints, among them that of sub-GeV dark matter mediated by a massive vector portal (a dark photon) associated with a new dark U(1) gauge symmetry. It has been previously noted that for a significant range of the parameter space of this class of models, the annihilation of dark matter particles into a pair of dark photons can dominate the freeze-out process even when this process is kinematically forbidden for dark matter at rest — this is known as the “forbidden dark matter” (FDM) regime. Prior studies of this regime, however, assume that any “dark Higgs” associated with breaking the dark U(1) and imparting mass to the dark photon is decoupled from the dark matter and as such plays no role in the freeze-out process. In this paper, we explore the effects of a dark Higgs on sub-GeV dark matter phenomenology in this FDM regime by considering the simplest possible construction in which there exist non-trivial dark matter-dark Higgs couplings: a model with a single complex scalar DM candidate coupled directly to the dark Higgs field. We find that for a wide range of parameter space, the dark Higgs can alter the resulting relic abundance by many orders of magnitude, and that this effect can remain significant even for a small dark matter-dark Higgs coupling constant. Considering measurements from direct detection and measurements of the CMB, we further find that points in this model’s parameter space which recreate the appropriate dark matter relic abundance suffer only mild constraints from other sources at present, but may become accessible in near-future direct detection experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗