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At least 703 records · Page 39

Effective theory tower for μ → e conversion

We present theoretical predictions for μ → e conversion rates using a tower of effective field theories connecting the UV to nuclear physics scales. The interactions in nuclei are described using a recently developed nonrelativistic effective theory (NRET) that organizes contributions according to bound nucleon and muon velocities, ${\overrightarrow{v}}_N$ and ${\overrightarrow{v}}_μ$, with |${\overrightarrow{v}}_N$| > |${\overrightarrow{v}}_μ$|. To facilitate the top-down matching, we enlarge the set of Lorentz covariant nucleon-level interactions mapped onto the NRET operators to include those mediated by tensor interactions, in addition to the scalar and vector interactions already considered previously, and then match NRET nonperturbatively onto the Weak Effective Theory (WET). At the scale μ ≈ 2 GeV WET is formulated in terms of u, d, s quarks, gluons and photons as the light degrees of freedom, along with the flavor-violating leptonic current. We retain contributions from WET operators up to dimension 7, which requires the full set of 26 NRET operators. The results are encoded in the open-source Python- and Mathematica-based software suite MuonBridge, which we make available to the theoretical and experimental communities interested in μ → e conversion.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A parametric SPICE model for the simulation of spark gap switches

The use of SPICE-based software for the simulation of pulsed power systems—even large complex systems—has become commonplace in the pulsed power community. This is in contrast to earlier work in the field that relied on specially developed simulation codes such as Sandia’s Screamer or the Navy Research Lab’s Bertha, which natively incorporated models for common pulsed power components such as spark gap switches. Unlike these programs, SPICE programs provide a simple and familiar user interface and wide availability. However, SPICE programs do not include realistic models for key pulsed power circuit devices—including the spark gap switch. While simple switch models do exist in SPICE programs, these can only crudely approximate the behavior of a spark gap. This effort focuses on developing an SPICE circuit model for a gas-filled spark gap switch that is physically realistic while being simple enough to permit simulations to run in reasonable times on typical personal computers. Detailed information is provided for implementation in two common versions of SPICE: LTspice and Orcad PSPICE. Adaptation to other SPICE programs is possible with minimal modification. The model is intended as a design tool that uses physical parameters as inputs to connect it directly to the development of useable pulsed power systems. Data collected from the operation of a high-pressure pulsed-charged switch and a complete 12-stage Marx generator have been used to demonstrate the implementation and accuracy of the model over a wide range of parameters.

Pouncey, J. Cameron (ORCID:0000000153500816)↗

Surface heat flux and its association with the MJO in the tropical western Pacific using ARM observations

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major atmospheric phenomenon in the tropics that moves eastward every 20 to 100 days. It brings heavy rain and strong winds, influencing extreme weather events far beyond the tropics – including flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes and heavy snow in the United States. Therefore, an improved understanding of the MJO is critical for enhancing weather forecasts and supporting better decision-making for communities, emergency managers, and the private sector. Past studies, based on short-term observations or long-term model data, have emphasized the dominant role of atmospheric humidity in driving the MJO. Our research, using long-term observations (2000-2014) from three U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in the tropical western Pacific (Manus, Nauru, and Darwin) confirms those past findings. However, we also show that atmospheric temperature, especially in the mid and upper troposphere, also plays a key role in the MJO’s evolution from its quiet (suppressed) to convective (active) phase. These findings provide valuable insights into how the MJO evolves and may help evaluate and improve weather and climate models. Our study also examined how the exchange of heat between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, called surface heat flux, interacts with the MJO. This flux includes components such as latent heat (related to evaporation), sensible heat (related to temperature difference between surface and atmosphere), and radiation. We found that modulation in MJO convection is well connected to surface heat flux over the tropical western Pacific. One surface heat flux component often overlooked is the sensible heat flux due to precipitation (Q P ). Since falling raindrops are typically cooler than the land or ocean surface, they can cool the surface and affect local weather. To test the impact of Q P on convection during MJO, we incorporated it into a weather model, and ran simulations for two periods: April 2009 (when the MJO was active) and June 2006 (when it was not). Including Q P reduced errors in simulating the daily peak of rainfall—by 83% during the strong MJO and 23% during the inactive phase. It also improved the timing of peak daily rainfall and reduced the overall precipitation error by about 10%. These improvements were especially noticeable during periods of heavy rainfall. Our results suggest that even small heat exchanges from rainfall can play a significant role in shaping local weather. Accounting for these effects, particularly in regions like the tropical islands, can lead to more accurate simulations of the MJO-associated precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

X-traktor: A Rookie Robot, Simple, Yet Complex, Impeccably Designed, a Very Innovative Multidisciplinary Engineering Masterpiece

FIRST is the acronym of For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology. FIRST is a 501.C.3 non-profit organization whose mission is to generate an interest in science and engineering among today's young adults and youth. This mission is accomplished through a robot competition held annually in the spring of each year. NASAs Marshall Space Flight Center, Education Programs Department, awarded a grant to Lee High School, the sole engineering magnet school in Huntsville, Alabama. MSFC awarded the grant in hopes of fulfilling its goal of giving back invaluable resources to its community and engineers, as well as educating tomorrow's work force in the high-tech area of science and technology. Marshall engineers, Lee High School students and teachers, and a host of other volunteers and parents officially initiated this robot design process and competitive strategic game plan. The FIRST Robotics Competition is a national engineering contest, which immerses high school students in the exciting world of science and engineering. Teaming with engineers from government agencies, businesses, and universities enables the students to learn about the engineering profession. The students and engineers have six weeks to work together to brainstorm, design, procure, construct, and test their robot. The team then competes in a spirited, 'no-holds barred' tournament, complete with referees, other FIRST-designed robots, cheerleaders, and time clocks. The partnerships developed between schools, government agencies, businesses, and universities provide an exchange of resources and talent that build cooperation and expose students to new and rewarding career options. The result is a fun, exciting, and stimulating environment in which all participants discover the important connections between classroom experiences and real-world applications. This paper will highlight the story, engineering development, and evolutionary design of Xtraktor, the rookie robot, a manufacturing marvel and engineering achievement.

Henderson, A. J., Jr.↗

State-of-the-Art Small Spacecraft Technology

The objective of this report is to assess and provide an overview of the state of the art in small spacecraft technologies for use by mission designers, project managers, technologists, and students, connecting current small spacecraft missions to available technologies. This report focuses on the spacecraft system in its entirety, provides current best practices for integration and key considerations for the reader where possible, and presents devices from publicly available sources for each specific spacecraft subsystem. This report is a survey of small spacecraft technologies sourced from open literature; it is not an original source. In addition, this report only considers literature in the public domain. Information presented in this report is limited to SmallSat technology that is publicly available as of September 30, 2024. It does not include information on instrumentation, science payloads, or advances or developments that have not been publicly disclosed. Commonly used sources for data include manufacturer data sheets, press releases, conference papers, journal papers, public filings with government agencies, news articles, presentations, the compendium of databases accessed via NASA’s Small Spacecraft Systems Virtual Institute (S3VI) Information Search, and engagement with companies. Data not appropriate for public dissemination, such as proprietary, export controlled, or otherwise restricted data, are not considered. We encourage the SmallSat community to publish mission outcomes and technology development milestones in publicly available conference papers, press releases, or company websites so they can be reflected in future editions of this report. This report is funded by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD). It was first commissioned by the Small Spacecraft Technology (SST) program within NASA’s STMD in mid2012 in response to the rapid growth in interest in using small spacecraft for low-Earth orbit, lowcost missions. The report was subsequently updated in 2015, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 to capture SmallSat technology growth and maturation. In addition to reporting currently available state-of-the-art technologies that have achieved Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 5 or above, a prognosis is provided describing technologies as "on the horizon" if they are being considered for future application.

Sasha V Weston↗

Solar +: Clean Energy Strategies for the Sunshine State (Final Technical Report (FTR) of the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR))

This reports on a four-year effort to provide foundational research, analysis, strategies and assistance to help Florida, and other states that might learn from this work, to grow solar energy in conjunction with other distributed energy resources by addressing and overcoming existing barriers, and in way that delivers increased value. The start of this effort coincided with an inflection point of sorts into a new dawn for solar energy in Florida, where the Sunshine state’s national ranking in total installed solar, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), has rose from 13th to 4th. Florida has now become the national leader in annual utility-scale solar growth as dozens of large plants have come online. Also, during this time, Florida utilities have expressed a strong and growing interest in understanding the role of energy storage and how to best plan for and deploy this unique resource as part of strategies to grow solar. The utility-scale solar growth experienced has been fueled by the economics of solar cost-parity with natural gas combined cycle plants and Florida Public Service Commission’s (PSC) approval of cost-recovery for the Investor-Owned Utilities (IOU’s), primarily through the Solar Base Rate Adjustment (SoBRA) mechanism. This has led to gigawatts (GW’s) of rate-based solar capacity additions over several years, along with fairly significant amounts of energy storage. Meanwhile, municipal electric utilities, which, collectively, are the third largest source of power in the state, have been increasing solar considerably through power purchase agreements (PPA’s) and are on track to have close to 1 GW of grid-connected solar by 2024. Florida’s municipal utilities and the Florida Municipal Electric Association (FMEA) have been key partners in the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR), formed to carry out this effort. The six largest of these have been Core Team utilities, engaging throughout the project in weekly calls, discussions, and project direction, participating in and hosting workshops and benefiting from technical assistance in several areas.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Theoretical Advances in Polariton Chemistry and Molecular Cavity Quantum Electrodynamics

When molecules are coupled to an optical cavity, new light–matter hybrid states, so-called polaritons, are formed due to quantum light–matter interactions. With the experimental demonstrations of modifying chemical reactivities by forming polaritons under strong light–matter interactions, theorists have been encouraged to develop new methods to simulate these systems and discover new strategies to tune and control reactions. This review summarizes some of these exciting theoretical advances in polariton chemistry, in methods ranging from the fundamental framework to computational techniques and applications spanning from photochemistry to vibrational strong coupling. Even though the theory of quantum light–matter interactions goes back to the midtwentieth century, the gaps in the knowledge of molecular quantum electrodynamics (QED) have only recently been filled. We review recent advances made in resolving gauge ambiguities, the correct form of different QED Hamiltonians under different gauges, and their connections to various quantum optics models. Then, we review recently developed ab initio QED approaches which can accurately describe polariton states in a realistic molecule–cavity hybrid system. We then discuss applications using these method advancements. We review advancements in polariton photochemistry where the cavity is made resonant to electronic transitions to control molecular nonadiabatic excited state dynamics and enable new photochemical reactivities. When the cavity resonance is tuned to the molecular vibrations instead, ground-state chemical reaction modifications have been demonstrated experimentally, though its mechanistic principle remains unclear. We present some recent theoretical progress in resolving this mystery. Finally, we review the recent advances in understanding the collective coupling regime between light and matter, where many molecules can collectively couple to a single cavity mode or many cavity modes. We also lay out the current challenges in theory to explain the observed experimental results. We hope that this review will serve as a useful document for anyone who wants to become familiar with the context of polariton chemistry and molecular cavity QED and thus significantly benefit the entire community.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Crowdsourcing Global Perspectives in Ecology Using Social Media

Transparent, open, and reproducible research is still far from routine, and the full potential of open science has not yet been realized. Crowdsourcing–defined as the usage of a flexible open call to a heterogeneous group of individuals to recruit volunteers for a task –is an emerging scientific model that encourages larger and more outwardly transparent collaborations. While crowdsourcing, particularly through citizen- or community-based science, has been increasing over the last decade in ecological research, it remains infrequently used as a means of generating scientific knowledge in comparison to more traditional approaches. We explored a new implementation of crowdsourcing by using an open call on social media to assess its utility to address fundamental ecological questions. We specifically focused on pervasive challenges in predicting, mitigating, and understanding the consequences of disturbances. In this paper, we briefly review open science concepts and their benefits, and then focus on the new methods we used to generate a scientific publication. We share our approach, lessons learned, and potential pathways forward for expanding open science. Our model is based on the beliefs that social media can be a powerful tool for idea generation and that open collaborative writing processes can enhance scientific outcomes. We structured the project in five phases: (1) draft idea generation, (2) leadership team recruitment and project development, (3) open collaborator recruitment via social media, (4) iterative paper development, and (5) final editing, authorship assignment, and submission by the leadership team. We observed benefits including: facilitating connections between unusual networks of scientists, providing opportunities for early career and underrepresented groups of scientists, and rapid knowledge exchange that generated multidisciplinary ideas. We also identified areas for improvement, highlighting biases in the individuals that self-selected participation and acknowledging remaining barriers to contributing new or incompletely formed ideas into a public document. While shifting scientific paradigms to completely open science is a long-term process, our hope in publishing this work is to encourage others to build upon and improve our efforts in new and creative ways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

'The surface management system' (SuMS) database: a surface-based database to aid cortical surface reconstruction, visualization and analysis

Surface reconstructions of the cerebral cortex are increasingly widely used in the analysis and visualization of cortical structure, function and connectivity. From a neuroinformatics perspective, dealing with surface-related data poses a number of challenges. These include the multiplicity of configurations in which surfaces are routinely viewed (e.g. inflated maps, spheres and flat maps), plus the diversity of experimental data that can be represented on any given surface. To address these challenges, we have developed a surface management system (SuMS) that allows automated storage and retrieval of complex surface-related datasets. SuMS provides a systematic framework for the classification, storage and retrieval of many types of surface-related data and associated volume data. Within this classification framework, it serves as a version-control system capable of handling large numbers of surface and volume datasets. With built-in database management system support, SuMS provides rapid search and retrieval capabilities across all the datasets, while also incorporating multiple security levels to regulate access. SuMS is implemented in Java and can be accessed via a Web interface (WebSuMS) or using downloaded client software. Thus, SuMS is well positioned to act as a multiplatform, multi-user 'surface request broker' for the neuroscience community.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

High-rate strength response of tantalum from dynamic hole closure experiments

The science and engineering communities have significant interest in experimental platforms to evaluate and improve models for dynamic material deformation. While well-developed platforms exist, there are still gaps to fill for strain and strain rate conditions accessed during impact and other high-rate loading scenarios. To fill one such gap for strength measurements, a platform was recently developed that accesses high strain rate (≥ 10 5 /s) and large strain (≥ 50%) conditions by measuring the transient closure of a cylindrical hole using in situ x-ray imaging. In the work reported here, further refinement of the platform is performed to reduce the potential effects of porosity and anelasticity on the measurement. This helps us to isolate the strength effects that are the focus of the experiment. The updated experimental configuration employs a two-layer flyer design and elongated target to reduce the magnitude of the tensile excursions associated with rarefaction wave interactions. This allows for a more direct assessment of strength models commonly used for dynamic simulations of metals. Here we apply the new technique to well-characterized tantalum material, allowing for a robust connection to other experimental techniques. Deformation localization can be a concern in large strain experiments, and to help inform future use of the experimental platform, we use simulations with a sub-zone treatment of shear banding to explore potential localization behavior. Here we develop and utilize an experimental configuration with improved isolation of strength effects that can be applied to an expanded range of materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Genomic and environmental controls on Castellaniella biogeography in an anthropogenically disturbed subsurface

Castellaniella species have been isolated from a variety of mixed-waste environments including the nitrate and multiple metal-contaminated subsurface at the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). Previous studies examining microbial community composition and nitrate removal at ORR during biostimulation efforts reported increased abundances of members of the Castellaniella genus concurrent with increased denitrification rates. Thus, we asked how genomic and abiotic factors control the Castellaniella biogeography at the site to understand how these factors may influence nitrate transformation in an anthropogenically impacted setting. We report the isolation and characterization of several Castellaniella strains from the ORR subsurface. Five of these isolates match at 100% identity (at the 16S rRNA gene V4 region) to two Castellaniella amplicon sequence variants (ASVs), ASV1 and ASV2, that have persisted in the ORR subsurface for at least 2 decades. However, ASV2 has consistently higher relative abundance in samples taken from the site and was also the dominant blooming denitrifier population during a prior biostimulation effort. We found that the ASV2 representative strain has greater resistance to mixed metal stress than the ASV1 representative strains. We attribute this resistance, in part, to the large number of unique heavy metal resistance genes identified on a genomic island in the ASV2 representative genome. Additionally, we suggest that the relatively lower fitness of ASV1 may be connected to the loss of the nitrous oxide reductase (nos) operon (and associated nitrous oxide reductase activity) due to the insertion at this genomic locus of a mobile genetic element carrying copper resistance genes. This study demonstrates the value of integrating genomic, environmental, and phenotypic data to characterize the biogeography of key microorganisms in contaminated sites.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Solar Pathways in Federal Energy Assistance Programs: Expanding the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) and the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP)

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) and U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) are federal programs to help low-income households reduce their energy costs. LIHEAP provides direct assistance to help households cover energy costs and stay connected to utility services, as well as weatherization and minor energy-related repairs, and WAP provides no-cost energy efficiency measures to reduce energy use and energy bills while also improving home comfort for income-qualified households. Across the U.S., states are implementing or considering solar energy as an eligible measure for LIHEAP and/or WAP funding, but the successful implementation pathways remain largely undocumented. This report fills that gap by analyzing states' LIHEAP and WAP annual plans, surveying administrators from LIHEAP grant recipients and WAP grantees about their challenges implementing solar or barriers to doing so, and conducting interviews and workshops with program administrators.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Review of Distributed Electric Propulsion Concepts for Air Vehicle Technology

The emergence of distributed electric propulsion (DEP) concepts for aircraft systems has enabled new capabilities in the overall efficiency, capabilities, and robustness of future air vehicles. Distributed electric propulsion systems feature the novel approach of utilizing electrically-driven propulsors which are only connected electrically to energy sources or power-generating devices. As a result, propulsors can be placed, sized, and operated with greater flexibility to leverage the synergistic benefits of aero-propulsive coupling and provide improved performance over more traditional designs. A number of conventional aircraft concepts that utilize distributed electric propulsion have been developed, along with various short and vertical takeoff and landing platforms. Careful integration of electrically-driven propulsors for boundary-layer ingestion can allow for improved propulsive efficiency and wake-filling benefits. The placement and configuration of propulsors can also be used to mitigate the trailing vortex system of a lifting surface or leverage increases in dynamic pressure across blown surfaces for increased lift performance. Additionally, the thrust stream of distributed electric propulsors can be utilized to enable new capabilities in vehicle control, including reducing requirements for traditional control surfaces and increasing tolerance of the vehicle control system to engine-out or propulsor-out scenarios. If one or more turboelectric generators and multiple electric fans are used, the increased effective bypass ratio of the whole propulsion system can also enable lower community noise during takeoff and landing segments of flight and higher propulsive efficiency at all conditions. Furthermore, the small propulsors of a DEP system can be installed to leverage an acoustic shielding effect by the airframe, which can further reduce noise signatures. The rapid growth in flight-weight electrical systems and power architectures has provided new enabling technologies for future DEP concepts, which provide flexible operational capabilities far beyond those of current systems. While a number of integration challenges exist, DEP is a disruptive concept that can lead to unprecedented improvements in future aircraft designs.

electric propulsion↗

Exploring NASA OMI Level 2 Data With Visualization

Satellite data products are important for a wide variety of applications that can bring far-reaching benefits to the science community and the broader society. These benefits can best be achieved if the satellite data are well utilized and interpreted, such as model inputs from satellite, or extreme events (such as volcano eruptions, dust storms, etc.).Unfortunately, this is not always the case, despite the abundance and relative maturity of numerous satellite data products provided by NASA and other organizations. Such obstacles may be avoided by allowing users to visualize satellite data as images, with accurate pixel-level (Level-2) information, including pixel coverage area delineation and science team recommended quality screening for individual geophysical parameters. We present a prototype service from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) supporting Aura OMI Level-2 Data with GIS-like capabilities. Functionality includes selecting data sources (e.g., multiple parameters under the same scene, like NO2 and SO2, or the same parameter with different aggregation methods, like NO2 in OMNO2G and OMNO2D products), user-defined area-of-interest and temporal extents, zooming, panning, overlaying, sliding, and data subsetting, reformatting, and reprojection. The system will allow any user-defined portal interface (front-end) to connect to our backend server with OGC standard-compliant Web Mapping Service (WMS) and Web Coverage Service (WCS) calls. This back-end service should greatly enhance its expandability to integrate additional outside data-map sources.

Level 2↗

Exploring NASA OMI Level 2 Data With Visualization

Satellite data products are important for a wide variety of applications that can bring far-reaching benefits to the science community and the broader society. These benefits can best be achieved if the satellite data are well utilized and interpreted, such as model inputs from satellite, or extreme events (such as volcano eruptions, dust storms,... etc.). Unfortunately, this is not always the case, despite the abundance and relative maturity of numerous satellite data products provided by NASA and other organizations. Such obstacles may be avoided by allowing users to visualize satellite data as "images", with accurate pixel-level (Level-2) information, including pixel coverage area delineation and science team recommended quality screening for individual geophysical parameters. We present a prototype service from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) supporting Aura OMI Level-2 Data with GIS-like capabilities. Functionality includes selecting data sources (e.g., multiple parameters under the same scene, like NO2 and SO2, or the same parameter with different aggregation methods, like NO2 in OMNO2G and OMNO2D products), user-defined area-of-interest and temporal extents, zooming, panning, overlaying, sliding, and data subsetting, reformatting, and reprojection. The system will allow any user-defined portal interface (front-end) to connect to our backend server with OGC standard-compliant Web Mapping Service (WMS) and Web Coverage Service (WCS) calls. This back-end service should greatly enhance its expandability to integrate additional outside data/map sources.

Aura↗

Boundary spanning increases knowledge and action on invasive species in a changing climate

Abstract Challenges associated with global change stressors on ecosystems have prompted calls to improve actionable science, including through boundary‐spanning activities, which aim to build connections and communication between researchers and natural resource practitioners. By synthesizing and translating research and practitioner knowledge, boundary‐spanning activities could support proactive, research‐informed conservation practice, but the success of these efforts is rarely evaluated. Using repeat survey data from the Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NE RISCC) Management Network, a boundary‐spanning organization, we evaluate whether participating in NE RISCC affected practitioners' knowledge, actions and priorities related to invasive species management under a changing climate. Our survey results suggest that practitioners who participate in NE RISCC have greater knowledge about invasive species and climate change and are incorporating climate change in more ways into their invasive species management. We also found NE RISCC membership affected the perceived usefulness of informational resources, with NE RISCC members more frequently identifying research syntheses and targeted workshops (both are common products used by NE RISCC to translate science into practice and share manager knowledge) as useful compared to non‐members. Practitioners who participate in NE RISCC also identified somewhat different research priorities, with non‐members and short‐term members more frequently identifying range‐shifting neonative species and their impacts on native communities as higher priorities compared to long‐term NE RISCC members. NE RISCC research activities and outreach materials have consistently framed range‐shifting neonative species as comparatively low risk, suggesting that this information has influenced practitioner's perception of risk. Practical implication : Although real‐world impacts of applied ecology are notoriously difficult to quantify, this analysis illustrates that if research results are actively translated, they can affect the knowledge and actions of natural resource practitioners. These impacts illustrate the potential for boundary‐spanning efforts to address other global change challenges to conservation.

Evans, Annette E.↗

Information Entropy as Quantifier of Potential Predictability in the Tropical Indo-Pacific Basin

Global warming is posed to modify the modes of variability that control much of the climate predictability at seasonal to interannual scales. The quantification of changes in climate predictability over any given amount of time, however, remains challenging. Here we build upon recent advances in non-linear dynamical systems theory and introduce the climate community to an information entropy quantifier based on recurrence. The entropy, or complexity of a system is associated with microstates that recur over time in the time-series that define the system, and therefore to its predictability potential. A computationally fast method to evaluate the entropy is applied to the investigation of the information entropy of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, focusing on boreal fall. In this season the predictability of the basins is controlled by two regularly varying non-linear oscillations, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. We compute and compare the entropy in simulations from the CMIP5 catalog from the historical period and RCP8.5 scenario, and in reanalysis datasets. Discrepancies are found between the models and the reanalysis, and no robust changes in predictability can be identified in future projections. The Indian Ocean and the equatorial Pacific emerge as troublesome areas where the modeled entropy differs the most from that of the reanalysis in many models. A brief investigation of the source of the bias points to a poor representation of the ocean mean state and basins' connectivity at the Indonesian Throughflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leveraging Existing Satellite Precipitation Missions for AOS Applications Development

The Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) seeks to explore fundamental questions of how interconnections between aerosols, clouds and precipitation impact our weather and climate, addressing real-world challenges to benefit society. AOS will provide key information to enhance the communities’ ability to improve weather and air quality forecasting today, seasonal to sub-seasonal changes in the near future, and societal challenges resulting from climate change in the decades to come. A fundamental component of the AOS mission is ensuring that applications are considered to the greatest extent possible in mission design.As a result, the Applications Impact Team (AIT) was implemented to address this objective.The overarching goal of the AIT is to help improve the capacity for transitioning science to applications to make it possible to more quickly and effectively inform decisions that will directly benefit society. We seek to maximize AOS benefit to impact decisions through early engagement in the mission development phase in order to prepare stakeholders to apply observations as soon as AOS mission data becomes available.To support these efforts, we leverage existing mission applications activities and initiatives, such as NASA’s GPM and TROPICS missions, to form a framework to enhance precipitation applications for AOS. Engaging with existing missions helps identify and understand data needs, gaps and opportunities for current and future stakeholders, determine what precipitation data products are of highest value and use, and helps connect stakeholders with current mission data that can serve as AOS proxy data, among others. In this presentation, we provide an overview of AOS AIT activities and initiatives and highlight how existing satellite precipitation missions and their applications activities can play a critical role in AOS applications development during mission design.

Andrea Portier↗