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NASA NTRS1993

Models for various aspects of dwarf novae and nova-like stars

The first attempts to explain the nature of dwarf novae were based on the assumption of single-star phenomena, in which emission lines were assumed to be caused by circumstellar gas shells. The outburst behavior was tentatively ascribed to the kind of (also not understood) mechanism leading to nova outbursts. The realization that some, and possibly all, dwarf novae and nova-like stars (and novae) are binaries eventually led to models which bore more and more similarities to the modern interpretation on the basis of the Roche model. Not all cataclysmic variables are known binaries. In fact, with respect to the entire number of known objects, the proven binaries are still the minority, but all the brightest variables are in fact known to binaries. Not a single system is known which exhibits the usual characteristics of a cataclysmic variable and at the same time can be declared with certainty to be a single star. Two systems are known, the dwarf nova EY Cyg and the recurrent nova V1017 Sgr, in which, in spite of intensive search, no radial velocity variations have been found; but they still exhibit composite spectra consisting of a bright continuum, an emission spectrum, and a cool absorption spectrum. If the Roche model is correct, it is to be expected that a small percentage of objects is viewed pole-on, so orbital motions do not make themselves felt as Doppler shifts of spectral lines. So even these two systems support the hypothesis that all cataclysmic variables (with the possible exception of symbiotic stars) are binaries. In cataclysmic variables, it seems that the brightness changes observed in dwarf novae and nova-like stars in the optical and the UV are due directly to changes in the accretion disks. The study and understanding of accretion disks in these systems can bear potentially valuable consequences for many other fields in astronomy. The observed spectra of dwarf novae and nova-like stars comprise a fairly large range: pure emission spectra, pure absorption spectra, a mixture of both, asymmetric line profiles, very different slopes of the continuous flux distribution -- and one single system may exhibit all of these features at different times. Agreement and disagreement between computed and observed spectra should show whether or not the Roche model is applicable and where it probably will have to be modified and improved. Except for their outburst behavior and its immediate consequences, novae, dwarf novae, and nova-like stars cannot be physically distinguished from each other.

Ladous, Constanze↗
NASA NTRS1994

Practical guidelines for workload assessment

The practical problems that might be encountered in carrying out workload evaluations in work settings have been outlined. Different approaches have been distinguished that may determine the type of research design used and provide assistance in the difficult choice between workload assessment techniques. One approach to workload assessment is to examine the short-term consequences of combining various tasks. Theoretical models of attention allocation will underpin specific studies of interference and the consequences of task demand and task conflict for performance. A further approach with a different temporal orientation may lead us to a better understanding of the relationships between work demands and strain through the analysis of individual differences in cognitive control processes. The application of these processes may depend on individual differences in long term styles and short term strategies, but may be used to prevent decrements in work performance under difficult conditions. However, control may attract costs as well as benefits in terms of changes in effective state and physiological activity. Thus, strain associated with work demands may only be measurable in the form of tradeoffs between performance and other domains of individual activity. The methodological implications are to identify patterns of adjustment to workload variations using repeated measures and longitudinal sampling of performance as well as subjective and physiological measures. Possible enhancements to workplace design must take into account these human factors considerations of workload in order to avoid potential decrements in individual performance and associated organizational problems.

Tattersall, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Magnetite: What it reveals about the origin of the banded iron formations

Magnetite, Fe3O4 is produced abiotically and biotically. Abiotically, magnetite is a late magmatic mineral and forms as a consequence of the cooling of iron rich magma. Biotically, magnetite is produced by several organisms, including magnetotactic bacteria. Hematite, Fe2O3, is also produced abiotically and biotically. Abiotically, hematite rarely occurs as a primary mineral in igneous rocks, but is common as an alteration product, fumarole deposit, and in some metamorphosed Fe-rich rocks. Biotically, hematite is produced by several types of microorganisms. Biologically-produced magnetite and hematite are formed under the control of the host organism, and consequently, have characteristics not found in abiotically produced magnetite and hematite crystals. To determine if the magnetite and hematite in the Banded Iron Formation was biologically or abiotically produced, the characteristics of biologically-produced magnetite and hematite (concentrated from Aquaspirillum magnetotacticum) and abiotically-produced magnetite and hematite obtained from Wards Scientific Supply Company, were compared with characteristics of magnetite and hematite concentrated from the Gunflint Banded Iron Formation (Ontario, Canada) using thermal and crystallographic analytical techniques. Whole rock analysis of the Gunflint Banded Iron Formation by x-ray diffraction (XRD) and differential thermal analysis (DTA) revealed the presence of quartz, hematite, siderite and dolomite as the major minerals, and magnetite, greenalite, pyrite, pyrrhotite and apatite as the minor minerals. Analysis of a crude magnetic fraction of the Gunflint showed the minerals quartz, hematite, siderite, dolomite, and magnetite. Analysis of the crude magnetic fraction from Aquaspirillum magnetotacticum revealed organic compounds plus hematite and magnetite. The mineral identification and particle size distribution data obtained from the DTA along with XRD data indicate that the magnetite and hematite from the Gunflint BIF share some similarities with biologically formed magnetite and hematite.

Schwartz, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

MHD modeling of magnetotail instability for localized resistivity

We present results of a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of magnetotail evolution initiated by a sudden occurrence or increase of spatially localized resistivity as the major expected concequence of some localized microinstability. Because of the absence of a quantitative model, possible variations of resistivity levels with current density, or the reduction thereof, are not incorporated in the present investigation. The emphasis of the study is on an investigation of the changes to the overall evolution brought about by this localization, in particular, on the disruption and diversion of the cross-tail current and the nonlinear evolution of the magnetotail instability. The immediate consequences of the occurrence of the localized resistance and the resulting electric field are a reduction and diversion of the electric current around the region of high resistivity, associated with an increase of B(sub z) ('dipolarization') at the earthward edge and a decrease of B(sub z) at the tailward edge of this region. These effects, however, are localized and do not involve a reduction of the total cross-tail current and hence do not lead to the global development of a 'substorm current wedge,' which includes not only the reduction of the cross-tail current but also the buildup of a global field-aligned current system of 'regional 1' type (toward the Earth on the dawnside and away on the duskside of the tail). Such signatures develop at a later time, as consequences of a three-dimensional tearing instability, which is triggered by the occurrence of the resistivity. These features are found in combination with plasmoid formation and ejection, quite similar to results of earlier simulations with uniform resistivity. Differences are found in the timescale of the evolution, which tends to be shorter for localized resistivity, and in the propagation of the dipolarization effects in the equatorial plane. Whereas for uniform resistivity the temporal increase in B(sub z) tends to propagate tailward, apparently due to a pileup effect in the near-Earth region, an earthward propagation is found for the localized resistivity. This propagation results from an earthward convection of the gradient in B(sub z), which is set up by the reconnection process further tailward.

Hesse, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1994

Long river profiles, tectonism, and eustasy: A guide to interpreting fluvial terraces

Along three rivers at the Mendocino triple junction, northern California, strath, cut, and fill terraces have formed in response to tectonic and eustatic processes. Detailed surveying and radiometric dating at multiple sites indicate that lower reaches of the rivers are dominated by the effects of oscillating sea level, primarily aggradation and formation of fill terraces during sea level high stands, alternating with deep incision during low stands. A eustasy-driven depositional wedge extends tens of kilometers upstream on all rivers (tapering to zero thickness). This distance is greater than expected from studies of the effects of check dams on much smaller streams elsewhere, due in part to the large size of these rivers. However, the change in gradient is nearly identical to other base level rise studies: the depositional gradient is about half that of the original channel. Middle to upper reaches of each river are dominated by the effects of long-term uplift, primarily lateral and vertical erosion and formation of steep, unpaired strath terraces exposed only upstream of the depositional wedge. Vertical incision at a rate similar to that of uplift has occurred even during the present sea level high stand along rivers with highest uplift rates. Strath terraces have steeper gradients than the modern channel bed and do not merge with marine terraces at the river mouth; consequently, they cannot be used to determine altitudes of sea level high stands. Strath formation is a continuous process of response to long-term uplift, and its occurrence varies spatially along a river depending on stream power, and hence position, upstream. Strath terraces are found only along certain parts of a coastal stream: upstream of the aggradational effects of oscillating sea level, and far enough downstream that stream power is in excess of that needed to transport the prevailing sediment load. For a given size river, the greater the uplift rate, the greater the rate of vertical incision and, consequently, the less the likelihood of strath terrace formation and preservation.

Merritts, Dorothy J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The effect of space flight on spatial orientation

Both during and following early space missions, little neurosensory change in the astronauts was noted as a result of their exposure to microgravity. It is believed that this lack of in-flight adaptation in the spatial orientation and perceptual-motor system resulted from short exposure times and limited interaction with the new environment. Parker and Parker (1990) have suggested that while spatial orientation and motion information can be detected by a passive observer, adaptation to stimulus rearrangement is greatly enhanced when the observer moves through or acts on the environment. Experience with the actual consequences of action can be compared with those consequences expected on the basis of prior experience. Space flight today is of longer duration, and space craft volume has increased. These changes have forced the astronauts to interact with the new environment of microgravity, and as a result substantial changes occur in the perceptual and sensory-motor repsonses reflecting adaptation to the stimulus rearrangement of space flight. We are currently evaluating spatial orientation and the perceptual-motor systems' adaptation to microgravity by examining responses of postural control, head and gaze stability during locomotion, goal oriented vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR), and structured quantitative perceptual reports. Evidence suggests that humans can successfully replace the gravitational reference available on Earth with cues available within the spacecraft or within themselves, but that adaptation to microgravity is not appropriate for a return to Earth. Countermeasures for optimal performance on-orbit and a successful return to earth will require development of preflight and in-flight training to help the astronauts acquire and maintain a dual adaptive state. An understanding of spatial orientation and motion perception, postural control, locomotion, and the VOR will aid in this process.

Reschke, Millard F.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Nozzle flow with vibrational nonequilibrium

This research concerns the modeling and numerical solutions of the coupled system of compressible Navier-Stokes equations in cylindrical coordinates under conditions of equilibrium and nonequilibrium thermodynamics. The problem considered was the modeling of a high temperature diatomic gas N2 flowing through a converging-diverging high expansion nozzle. The problem was modeled in two ways. The first model uses a single temperature with variable specific heats as functions of this temperature. For the second model we assume that the various degrees of freedom all have a Boltzmann distribution and that there is a continuous redistribution of energy among the various degrees of freedom as the gas passes through the nozzle. Each degree of freedom is assumed to have its own temperature and, consequently, each system state can be characterized by these temperatures. This suggests that formulation of a second model with a vibrational degree of freedom along with a rotational-translation degree of freedom, each degree of freedom having its own temperature. Initially the vibrational degree of freedom is excited by heating the gas to a high temperature. As the high temperature gas passes through the nozzle throat there is a sudden drop in temperature along with a relaxation time for the vibrational degree of freedom to achieve equilibrium with the rotational-translation degree of freedom. That is, we assume that the temperature change upon passing through the throat is so great that the changes in the vibrational degree of freedom occur at a much slower pace and consequently lags behind the rotational-translational energy changes. This lag results in a finite relaxation time. In this context the term nonequilibrium is used to denote the fact that the energy content of the various degrees of freedom are characterized by two temperatures. We neglect any chemical reactions which could also add nonequilibrium effects. We develop the energy equations for the nonequilibrium model from first principles. The resulting equations, which model the nozzle flow, can be expressed in various forms. In most forms the resulting equations are coupled systems of nonlinear partial differential equations subject to certain boundary conditions. To solve the resulting coupled system of nonlinear partial differential equations, several numerical techniques were investigated: (1) the explicit MacCormack method, (2) the explicit-implicit MacCormack method, (3) the method of operator splitting, (4) factorization schemes, and (5) the Steger-Warming scheme.

Heinbockel, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Experimental investigation of the inlet detector configuration variation in the flow field at Mach 1.9

In recent years, active research has been conducted to study the technological feasibility of supersonic laminar flow control on the wing of the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT). For this study, the F-16XL has been chosen due to its highly swept crank wing planform that closely resembles the HSCT configurations. During flights, it is discovered that the shock wave generated from the aircraft inlet introduces disturbances on the wing where the data acquisition is conducted. The flow field about a supersonic inlet is characterized by a complex three dimensional pattern of shock waves generated by the geometrical configuration of a deflector and a cowl lip. Hence, in this study, experimental method is employed to investigate the effects of the variation of deflector configuration on the flow field, and consequently, the possibility of diverting the incoming shock-disturbances away from the test section. In the present experiments, a model composed of a simple circular tube with a triangular deflector is designed to study the deflector length and the deflector base width variation in the flow field. Experimental results indicate that the lowest external pressure ratio is observed at the junction where the deflector lip and the inlet cowl lip merge. Also, it is noted that the external pressure ratio, the internal pressure ratio, the coefficient of spillage drag, and the shock standoff distance decrease as the deflector length increases. In addition, the Redefined Total Pressure Recovery Ratio (RTPRR) increases with an increase in the deflector length. Results from the study of the effect of the deflector's base width variation on the flow field indicate that the lowest external pressure ratio is observed at the junction between the inlet cowl lip and the deflector lip. As the base width of the deflector increases, the external pressure ratio at 0 rotation increases, whereas the external pressure ratio at 180 rotation decreases. In addition, the internal pressure ratio and the coefficient of spillage drag decrease as the base width of the deflector increases. However, RTPRR and shock standoff distance increase as the base width increases. In conclusion, as deflector dimensions vary, distinctive patterns in the pressure variation around the inlet deflector are observed. With an increase in the deflector length and base width, the magnitude of shock-disturbances are weakened due to a decrease in the external pressure ratio. Also, as the deflector length and base width increase, a smaller bow shock angle is formed. Therefore, the inlet shock wave formation would be significantly altered, and consequently, shock disturbances on the wing test section can be avoided through appropriately designing the deflector.

Hwang, Kyu C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The tilts of corotating interaction regions at mid heliographic latitudes

Ulysses observations of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) at mid heliographic latitudes have shown that the flow downstream of the forward shock (or wave) on the leading edge of a CIR generally turns northward and westward, while the flow downstream of the reverse wave on the trailing edge generally turns southward and eastward. These systematic flow deflections are a natural consequence of large scale pressure gradients associated with the CIRs, and indicate that the forward waves tend to propagate toward and across the equator with increasing heliocentric distance, while the reverse waves tend to propagate toward the pole. Recent determinations of CIR shock normals using the Ulysses magnetic field data appear to confirm these plasma results (Burton, private communication). Numerical simulations indicate that these effects (which imply that CIRs are systematically tilted in the north-south direction at mid latitudes) are a natural consequence of the tilt of the solar magnetic dipole axis relative to the solar rotation axis. The present work utilizes a variety of techniques to analyze the flow deflections observed within CIRs from which we can infer the overall orientations of the CIRs and the speeds and directions of propagation of the waves. Where possible, the observations are quantitatively compared with the results of 3-dimensional MHD simulations.

Riley, Pete↗
NASA NTRS1993

Role of strategic planning in engineering management

Today, more than ever before, engineers are faced with uncertain and sometimes chaotic environments in which to function. The traditional roles of an engineer to design, develop, and streamline a manufacturing process for a product are still valued and relevant. However, the need for an engineer to participate in the process of identifying the product to be developed, the schedule and resources required, and the goal of satisfying the customer, has become paramount to achieving the success of the enterprise. When we include these endeavors in the functions of an engineer, management of 'engineering' takes on a new dimension. In this paper, the ramifications of the changing and increased functions of an engineer and consequent impacts on engineering management are explored. The basic principles which should be invoked in order to embrace the new environment for engineering management are outlined. The ultimate finding of this study is that the enterprise strategic plan should be developed in such a way as to allow engineering management to encompass the full spectrum of the responsibilities of engineers. A consequence of this is that the fundamental elements of the strategic process can best be implemented through a project team or group approach. The paper thus concentrates on three areas: evolving environment, strategic plan, and ways to achieve enterprise success.

Krishen, Kumar↗
NASA NTRS1995

Nucleosynthesis and the nova outburst

A nova outburst is the consequence of the accretion of hydrogen rich material onto a white dwarf and it can be considered as the largest hydrogen bomb in the Universe. The fuel is supplied by a secondary star in a close binary system while the strong degeneracy of the massive white dwarf acts to contain the gas during the early stages of the explosion. The containment allows the temperature in the nuclear burning region to exceed 10(sup 8)K under all circumstances. As a result a major fraction of CNO nuclei in the envelope are transformed into (beta)(sup +)-unstable nuclei. We discuss the effects of these nuclei on the evolution. Recent observational studies have shown that there are two compositional classes of novae; one which occurs on carbon-oxygen white dwarfs, and a second class that occurs on oxygen-neon-magnesium white dwarfs. In this review we will concentrate on the latter explosions since they produce the most interesting nucleosynthesis. We report both on the results of new observational determinations of nova abundances and, in addition, new hydrodynamic calculations that examine the consequences of the accretion process on 1.0M(sub (circle dot)), 1.25M(sub (circle dot)), and 1.35M(sub (circle dot)) white dwarfs. Our results show that novae can produce (sup 22)Na, (sup 26)Al, and other intermediate mass nuclei in interesting amounts. We will present the results of new calculations, done with updated nuclear reaction rates and opacities, which exhibit quantitative differences with respect to published work.

Starrfield, S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The Role of Reformulation in the Automatic Design of Satisfiability Procedures

Recently there has been increasing interest in the problem of knowledge compilation (Selman & Kautz91). This is the problem of identifying tractable techniques for determining the consequences of a knowledge base. We have developed and implemented a technique, called DRAT, that given a theory, i.e., a collection of firstorder clauses, can often produce a type of decision procedure for that theory that can be used in the place of a general-purpose first-order theorem prover for determining many of the consequences of that theory. Hence, DRAT does a type of knowledge compilation. Central to the DRAT technique is a type of reformulation in which a problem's clauses are restated in terms of different nonlogical symbols. The reformulation is isomorphic in the sense that it does not change the semantics of a problem.

VanBaalen, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS1995

The Origin of Pluto's Orbit: Implications for the Solar System Beyond Neptune

The origin of the highly eccentric, inclined, and resonance-locked orbit of Pluto has long been a puzzle. A possible explanation has been proposed recently which suggests that these extraordinary orbital properties may be a natural consequence of the formation and early dynamical evolution of the outer solar system. A resonance capture mechanism is possible during the clearing of the residual planetesimal debris and the formation of the Oort Cloud of comets by planetesimal mass loss from the vicinity of the giant planets. If this mechanism were in operation during the early history of the planetary system, the entire region between the orbit of Neptune and approximately 50 AU would have been swept by first-order mean motion resonances. Thus, resonance capture could occur not only for Pluto, but quite generally for other trans-Neptunian small bodies. Some consequences of this evolution for the present-day dynamical structure of the trans-Neptunian region are (1) most of the objects in the region beyond Neptune and up to approximately 50 AU exist in very narrow zones located at orbital resonances with Neptune (particularly the 3:2 and the 2:1 resonances); and (2) these resonant objects would have significantly large eccentricities. The distribution of objects in the Kuiper Belt as predicted by this theory is presented here.

Malhotra, Renu↗
NASA NTRS1996

Three-color resonance ionization spectroscopy of Zr in Si

As our society becomes technologically more complex, computers are being used in greater and greater numbers of high consequence systems. Giving a machine control over the lives of humans can be disturbing, especially if the software that is run on such a machine has bugs. Formal reasoning is one of the most powerful techniques available to demonstrate the correctness of a piece of software. When reasoning about software and its development, one frequently encounters expressions that contain partial functions. As might be expected, the presence of partial functions introduces an additional dimension of difficulty to the reasoning framework. This difficulty produces an especially strong impact in the case of high consequence systems. An ability to use formal methods for constructing software is essential if we want to obtain greater confidence in such systems through formal reasoning. This is only reasonable under automation of software development and verification. However, the ubiquitous presence of partial functions prevents a uniform application to software of any tools not specifically accounting for partial functions. In this paper we will describe a framework for reasoning about software, based on the nonstrict explicit domain approach, that is applicable to a large class of software/hardware systems. In this framework the Hoare triples containing partial functions can be reasoned about automatically in a well-defined and uniform manner.

Hansen, C. S.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Modular Manufacturing Simulator: Users Manual

The Modular Manufacturing Simulator (MMS) has been developed for the beginning user of computer simulations. Consequently, the MMS cannot model complex systems that require branching and convergence logic. Once a user becomes more proficient in computer simulation and wants to add more complexity, the user is encouraged to use one of the many available commercial simulation systems. The (MMS) is based on the SSE5 that was developed in the early 1990's by the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). A recent survey by MSFC indicated that the simulator has been a major contributor to the economic impact of the MSFC technology transfer program. Many manufacturers have requested additional features for the SSE5. Consequently, the following features have been added to the MMS that are not available in the SSE5: runs under Windows, print option for both input parameters and output statistics, operator can be fixed at a station or assigned to a group of stations, operator movement based on time limit, part limit, or work-in-process (WIP) limit at next station. The movement options for a moveable operators are: go to station with largest WIP, rabbit chase where operator moves in circular sequence between stations, and push/pull where operator moves back and forth between stations. This user's manual contains the necessary information for installing the MMS on a PC, a description of the various MMS commands, and the solutions to a number of sample problems using the MMS. Also included in the beginning of this report is a brief discussion of technology transfer.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Durable Reduction of Cosmic Ray Intensity in the Outer Heliosphere

This paper reports Pioneer 10 (P10) and Pioneer 11 (P11) observations of the intensity J(E(sub p) greater than 80 MeV) of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere near the heliographic equator during the 24-year period 1972-1996 and out to a heliocentric radial distance of 65 AU. It updates previous P10/P11 determinations of the time dependence of the radial gradient of intensity and emphasizes the recent 10-year period, especially the consequences of the great Forbush decrease in 1991. A fresh analysis compares P10 and P11 data with comparable data from IMP 8 at 1.0 AU. For this purpose, we have made a critical study of the data from three different instruments on IMP 8 and have developed a new time-dependent reference level of intensity at 1.0 AU for the period 1974-1996. Using this reference, we find that as of late 1996, recovery of intensity following the 1991 Forbush decrease has been markedly less complete in the outer heliosphere than at 1.0 AU. As a consequence, the mean radial gradient between 4 and 65 AU is now only about +0.3% 1/AU. Our findings favor the latitudinal wedge model of the heliosphere (Van Allen and Mihalov, 1990) and suggest that the modulation boundary of the heliosphere is far beyond 65 AU. Generally concordant, but less decisive, evidence of a similar nature has been reported previously by Van Allen (1993), Van Allen (1996), and Webber and Lockwood (1995b).

VanAllen, James A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Understanding Skill in EVA Mass Handling: Theoretical and Operational Foundations - Volume 1

This report describes the theoretical and operational foundations for our analysis of skill in extravehicular mass handling. A review of our research on postural control, human-environment interactions, and exploratory behavior in skill acquisition is used to motivate our analysis. This scientific material is presented within the context of operationally valid issues concerning extravehicular mass handling. We describe the development of meaningful empirical measures that are relevant to a special class of nested control systems: manual interactions between an individual and the substantial environment. These measures are incorporated into a unique empirical protocol implemented on NASA's principal mass handling simulator, the precision air-bearing floor, in order to evaluate skill in extravehicular mass handling. We discuss the components of such skill with reference to the relationship between postural configuration and controllability of an orbital replacement unit, the relationship between orbital replacement unit control and postural stability, the relationship between antecedent and consequent movements of an orbital replacement unit, and the relationship between antecedent and consequent postural movements. Finally, we describe our expectations regarding the operational relevance of the empirical results as it pertains to extravehicular activity tools, training, monitoring, and planning.

Riccio, Gary↗
NASA NTRS1997

Multiple Hub Network Choice in the Liberalized European Market

A key question that so far has received relatively little attention in the germane literature is that of the changes at various airports as a result of the EU liberalization policies. That is, presently, most major European airports still benefit from the so-called home-carrier phenomenon where the country's publicly or semi-publicly owned carrier uses the country's main airport as its gateway hub and, consequently, the home-carrier is also the principal user of this airport (in terms of proportion of total aircraft movements, number of passengers transported, connections, slots ownership, etc.). The country's main airport has substantially benefited from these monopoly conditions of airline captivity, strongly determined by the bilateral system of international air transport regulation. Therefore, European major airports were used to operate in essentially different markets, compared to the increasingly competitive markets of their home based carriers. This partly explains relative stability of transport volumes and financial results of European major airports compared to the relatively volatile financial results of most European national airlines. However, the liberalization of European aviation is likely to change this situation. Market access is open now to all community carriers, i.e. carriers with majority ownership and effective control in the hands of EU citizens. Ticket prices are free, governments can only intervene in case of dumping or excessive pricing. A community airline can choose its seat in any of the 15 member states. Licensing procedures are harmonized between member states. In the last few months community carriers have had unrestricted route access within the EU. Most probably this development will be extended to countries inside and outside Europe. Last year the European Commission got the mandate to start negotiations with 10 other European countries. In the meantime the EC has also started negotiations with the USA on so-called soft rights. In the meantime, open skies agreements have been concluded between the USA and most of the EU member states to facilitate strategic alliances between airlines of the states involved. As a result of this on-going liberalization the model of the single 'national' carrier using the national home base as its single hub for the designated third, fourth and sixth freedom operations will stepwise disappear. Within the EU the concept of the national carrier has already been replaced by that of the community carrier. State ownership in more and more European carriers is reduced. On the longer run mergers or even bankruptcy will further undermine the "single national carrier - single national hub" model in Europe. In the meantime, strategic alliances between national carriers in Europe will already reduce the airlines' loyalty to a single airport. Profit maximization and accountability to share holders will supersede the loyalty of these newly emerging alliances, probably looking for the opportunities of a multiple hub network to adequately cover the whole European market. As a consequence, some European airports might see a substantial decline in arriving, departing and transfer traffic, thus in revenues and financial solvency, as well as in their connection to other inter-continental and intra-European destinations. At the same time, other airports might realize a significant increase in traffic as they will be sought after by the profit maximizing airlines as their major gateway hubs. Which will be the losing airports and which will be the winning ones? Can airports anticipate the actions of airlines in deregulated markets and utilize policies which will improve their relative position? If so, what should be these anticipatory policies? These questions become the more urgent, since an increasing number of major European airports will be privatized in the near future. Although increasing airport congestion in Europe will also be reflected in a growing demand pressure for airport slots, this is not a guarantee for a stable transport volume growth of individual airports. The more volatile the market is, the more vulnerable privatized airports become. Therefore, the main issue of this study is the analysis of the opportunities of major European airports to become a central hub as a result of the network choices made by the new European airlines in a completely liberalized market. In a previous study (Berechman and de Wit, 1996), we already explored the potential of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol of becoming the major West-European hub, once European aviation markets are deregulated. A major hindrance of that study was the use of a single hub-and-spoke network. For example that model could not analyze the viability of different combinations of European hubs within a multiple hub network of alternative airline alliances. In this study, we have formulated the model of a multi-hub network where two West-European airports are used for inter-continental and intra-European travel to enable a more realistic analysis of hub choice. Like the previous one also this multi-hub model is primarily used to assess the potential ability of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol for becoming a major West-European hub. Thus, in particular, the policy tests focus on this airport in a double hub network.

Berechman, Joseph↗