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NASA NTRS2012

A Bayesian Framework for Reliability Analysis of Spacecraft Deployments

Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a two stage sequential Bayesian framework for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This process was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the Optical Telescope Element. Initially, detailed studies of NASA deployment history, "heritage information", were conducted, extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. This information was then coupled to a non-informative prior and a binomial likelihood function to create a posterior distribution for deployments of various subsystems uSing Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. Select distributions were then coupled to a subsequent analysis, using test data and anomaly occurrences on successive ground test deployments of scale model test articles of JWST hardware, to update the NASA heritage data. This allowed for a realistic prediction for the reliability of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, within this two stage Bayesian framework.

Evans, John W.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Synthesis and Characterization of Magnesium Vanadates as Potential Magnesium-Ion Cathode Materials through an Ab Initio Guided Carbothermal Reduction Approach**

Many technologically relevant materials for advanced energy storage and catalysis feature reduced transition-metal (TM) oxides that are often nontrivial to prepare because of the need to control the reducing nature of the atmosphere in which they are synthesized. In this report, we show that an ab initio predictive synthesis strategy can be used to produce multi-gram-scale products of various MgV x O y -type phases (δ-MgV 2 O 5 , spinel MgV 2 O 4 , and MgVO 3 ) containing V 3+ or V 4+ relevant for Mg-ion battery cathodes. Characterization of these phases using 25 Mg solid-state NMR spectroscopy illustrates the potential of 25 Mg NMR for studying reversible magnesiation and local charge distributions. Rotor-assisted population transfer (RAPT) is used as a much-needed signal-to-noise enhancement technique. The ab initio guided synthesis method is seen as a step forward towards a predictive synthesis strategy for targeting specific complex TM oxides with variable oxidation states of technological importance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative Metrics for Grid Resilience Evaluation and Optimization

Power system resilience has become a critical topic in recent years because of the increasing trend of extreme events and the growing integration of intermittent renewable energy sources. To enhance grid resilience against high-impact, low-frequency events, two questions should be answered: how to quantify the resilience of a given grid and how to incorporate the quantification into power system planning, operation, and restoration. Here this paper develops a new set of quantitative metrics with clear physical interpretation to comprehensively evaluate power system resilience. Using microgrids as an example, an event-based corrective scheduling (ECS) model and an online model predictive control (OMPC) model are developed to integrate the proposed quantitative resilience metrics into power system optimization models for resilience enhancement. The ECS model employs extreme event data to investigate the optimal restoration solution and to help microgrid operators prepare to respond to similar events. The OMPC model provides online decision-making support for operators to handle ongoing outages in the most resilient fashion. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed quantitative resilience metrics and the resilience enhancement models are demonstrated through simulations and comparative studies on an IEEE test feeder and a real distribution feeder in Southern California.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the hydrodynamic impact on the tool influence function during hemispherical subaperture optical polishing

To fabricate high-precision and accurate optics relative to the optical design surface, a high level of deterministic control of material removal (i.e., the tool influence function, TIF) during subaperture tool polishing is required. In this study, a detailed analysis of the pressure distribution, which is a key component of the TIF, has been performed using finite element analysis to couple together solid mechanics and fluid dynamics. Modeling experimental parameters of recently published work reveals that, when considering tool deformation, which in turn influences the fluid film thickness between the tool and workpiece, the effective pressure profile has a flat-top distribution. This flat-top pressure profile differs from the parabolic pressure distributions predicted by Hertzian mechanics. Furthermore, the shear contribution is shown here to be a key contributor to material removal, inducing the removal at the periphery of the contact edge and even outside the generally accepted contact area. Finally, the simulated fluid velocities provide evidence of mixed-mode contact polishing, supporting recent experimental findings that also suggest that onset of hydroplaning contributions lead to material removal drop-off.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiphysics Modeling of Microreactors with NEAMS codes, and Validation Based on KRUSTY Reactivity Insertion

The NEAMS Multiphysics Applications team continues to assess code usability and functionality for microreactor design and safety analyses, while demonstrating that NEAMS tools capture both steady-state and transient behavior across distinct microreactor concepts. In FY2025, the team advanced full-core, high-fidelity, multiphysics models that solve more complex problems and strengthen verification/validation for several microreactor systems: heat-pipe microreactor (HPMR), gas-cooled microreactor (GCMR), and the KRUSTY experiment. These models employ the MOOSE MultiApp/Transfers architecture with Griffin for neutronics, BISON for heat conduction/thermomechanics, Sockeye for heat pipes, SAM/THM for coolant channels and loops, and SWIFT for hydride behavior, with meshes generated via the MOOSE Reactor Module. The graphite models available in the Grizzly code were also investigated for future analyses. For the HPMR, a Na-HPMR variant was constructed to align with recently validated heat-pipe experiments and Sockeye’s LCVF capability, enabling mechanistic heat-pipe transients and startup modeling. The Na-HPMR will serve as the primary model for HPMR investigations in upcoming tasks. The load-following and single heat-pipe failure scenarios (Griffin/BISON/Sockeye), which were previously modeled for the K-HPMR, were replicated for the Na-HPMR, showing strong negative temperature feedback and highly localized thermal effects, respectively, while the startup case captured vapor-front progression and heat-removal activation. Solid mechanics was added to the previously built K-HPMR full-core model in BISON, showing minimal impact on steady-state reactivity yet enabling stress-field predictions that prepare the path for full-core TRISO performance analyses. For the GCMR, automated steady-state and four transient scenarios were executed using Griffin/BISON/SAM/SWIFT. Results confirm robust inherent safety: power collapses promptly in loss-of-cooling events, the inlet-temperature drop settles to a new equilibrium, and a single-channel blockage yields only a ~30 K local fuel-temperature rise with <0.4% power decrease. SWIFT-predicted hydrogen redistribution affects reactivity during both steady-state and transient conditions, underscoring its importance. A Brayton-cycle balance of plant (BOP) model in SAM/THM demonstrated stable startup behavior, and xenon-driven reactivity during load following was analyzed. To improve TRISO-compact temperature fidelity, a fast multiscale Heat Source Decomposition (HSD) treatment was implemented. Against heterogeneous benchmarks, HSD reduces underprediction of kernel temperatures and lowers predicted peak powers in reactivity-insertion transients compared to previous homogenized models. KRUSTY warm-critical validation progressed from FY2024 baselines: the 15Ȼ insertion shows excellent agreement in peak power (~2% high) and temperature trends, and the 30Ȼ case was automated via a feedback controller that maintained power near 3 kW for ~150 s with close agreement to data. The successful modeling of the warm critical tests has laid a strong foundation for simulating more complex nuclear system tests in the years ahead. Throughout FY2025, developer feedback was provided (e.g., MOOSE batch mesh generation, distributed pre-split meshes, Griffin sweeper on displaced meshes), several new models were contributed to the Virtual Test Bed, and an OECD-NEA WPRS multiphysics benchmark based on the HPMR was initiated to enable broader cross-comparison and best-practice development with the nuclear community at large.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1988

An integrated and modular digital modeling approach for the space station electrical power system development

An electrical power system for the Space Station was designed, developed and built. This system provides for electrical power generation, conditioning, storage, and distribution. The initial configuration uses photovoltaic power generation. The power system control is based on a hierarchical architecture to support the requirements of automation. In the preliminary design and technology development phase of the program, various modeling techniques and software tools were evaluated for the purpose of meeting the Space Station power system modeling requirements. Rocketdyne and LeRC jointly selected the EASY5 simulation software, developed by Boeing Computer Services, as a system level modeling tool. The application of the selected analytical modeling approach to represent the entire power system is described. Typical results of model predictions are also summarized. The equipment modeled includes solar arrays, dc to ac converters, resonant inverters, battery storage system, alternator, transmission line, switch gear, and system level microprocessor controls. During the advanced development phase of this program, several models were developed using this approach.

Gombos, Frank J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

An integrated and modular digital modeling approach for the Space Station electrical power system development

Gombos, Frank J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Neonatal rat heart cells cultured in simulated microgravity

In vitro characteristics of cardiac cells cultured in simulated microgravity are reported. Tissue culture methods performed at unit gravity constrain cells to propagate, differentiate, and interact in a two-dimensional (2D) plane. Neonatal rat cardiac cells in 2D culture organize predominantly as bundles of cardiomyocytes with the intervening areas filled by nonmyocyte cell types. Such cardiac cell cultures respond predictably to the addition of exogenous compounds, and in many ways they represent an excellent in vitro model system. The gravity-induced 2D organization of the cells, however, does not accurately reflect the distribution of cells in the intact tissue. We have begun characterizations of a three-dimensional (3D) culturing system designed to mimic microgravity. The NASA-designed High-Aspect Ratio Vessel (HARV) bioreactors provide a low shear environment that allows cells to be cultured in static suspension. HARV-3D cultures were prepared on microcarrier beads and compared to control-2D cultures using a combination of microscopic and biochemical techniques. Both systems were uniformly inoculated and medium exchanged at standard intervals. Cells in control cultures adhered to the polystyrene surface of the tissue culture dishes and exhibited typical 2D organization. Cells cultured in HARVs adhered to microcarrier beads, the beads aggregated into defined clusters containing 8 to 15 beads per cluster, and the clusters exhibited distinct 3D layers: myocytes and fibroblasts appeared attached to the surfaces of beads and were overlaid by an outer cell type. In addition, cultures prepared in HARVs using alternative support matrices also displayed morphological formations not seen in control cultures. Generally, the cells prepared in HARV and control cultures were similar; however, the dramatic alterations in 3D organization recommend the HARV as an ideal vessel for the generation of tissuelike organization of cardiac cells in vitro.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1992

Mass loading at Titan and comets

Present understanding of the cometary mass loading process (the addition of newborn ions to high speed magnetized plasma flows) is explored and the cometary lesson is applied to the environment of Titan. Mass loading is the dominant physical process controlling the interaction of the solar wind with comets, and it might play an important role in the interaction of Titan's neutral torus and exosphere with Saturn's magnetosphere. Freshly born ions follow cycloidal trajectories, resulting from the superposition of gyration and E/B drift. In the plasma frame, the resulting velocity space distribution is a ring beam distribution at comets and a ring distribution at Titan. This difference in free energy is expected to generate significantly different levels of low frequency broad band electromagnetic turbulence and, thus, result in important differences in the implanted ion distributions. It is predicted that mass loading creates a hot, equatorially trapped plasma population at Titan.

Gombosi, Tamas I.↗

NASA NTRS1941

The aerodynamics of a wind-tunnel fan

The vortex blade-element theory modified to apply to an axial fan working in a duct is reviewed. Thrust and power coefficients for a fan are identified with the corresponding coefficients for airplane propellers. The relation of pressure produced by the fan to the blade-element coefficients is developed. The distribution of axial velocity of fluid through a fan is assumed to be controlled by the fan itself. The radial distribution of tangential velocity imported by the fan to fluid moving through the fan is shown to be independent of the axial-velocity distribution. A nondimensional coefficient, designated the rotation constant, is introduced. This constant is based solely upon design information. The use of the rotation constant in simplifying the design of a fan for a specific operating condition is demonstrated. Based on the use of the rotation constant, a graphical method is outlined by which the performance of a given fan in a given wind tunnel may be predicted and by which the distributions of axial velocity of the fluid through the fan under various operating conditions may be established.

THEORIES-VORTEX↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model-Based and Data-Driven HVAC Control Strategies for Residential Demand Response

Not Available

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

New vortex‐lift and tangential‐force models for HAWT aerodynamic load prediction

Abstract Horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWTs) experience three‐dimensional rotational and unsteady aerodynamic phenomena at the rotor blades sections. These highly unsteady three‐dimensional effects have a dramatic impact on the aerodynamic load distributions on the blades, in particular, when they occur at high angles of attack due to stall delay and dynamic stall. Unfortunately, there is no complete understanding of the flow physics yet at these unsteady 3D flow conditions, and hence, the existing published theoretical models are often incapable of modelling the impact on the turbine response realistically. The purpose of this paper is to provide an insight on the combined influence of the stall delay and dynamic stall on the blade load history of wind turbines in controlled and uncontrolled conditions. New dynamic stall vortex and nonlinear tangential force coefficient modules, which integrally take into account the three dimensional rotational effect, are also proposed in this paper. This module along with the unsteady influence of turbulent wind speed and tower shadow is implemented in a blade element momentum (BEM) model to estimate the aerodynamic loads on a rotating blade more accurately. This work presents an important step to help modelling the combined influence of the stall delay and dynamic stall on the load history of the rotating wind turbine blades which is vital to have lighter turbine blades and improved wind turbine design systems.

Elgammi, Moutaz↗

DOE OSTI2026

Direct Determination of 3C/4H Silicon Carbide Heterophase Interfaces by Electron Ptychography

Silicon carbide is a technologically relevant material that can exist in various structural polymorphs, each with its own electronic properties. Through the controlled growth of abrupt interfaces between the polymorphs, systems with emergent properties arise from differences in local bonding and stacking sequences. Determining the structure of these interfaces provides important insights into predicting and ultimately controlling their properties. Here, in this study, we use multislice electron ptychography (MEP) to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze interfaces between 3C and 4H silicon carbide in three dimensions. Two distinct interfaces are investigated: a coherent interface between $(1\bar{1}1)$ (3C) and $(0001)$ (4H) , and an incoherent interface between $(1\bar{1}2)$ (3C) and $(1\bar{1}00)$ (4H) . At the coherent interface, MEP enables direct quantification of a sharp boundary with an inclined step, whereas at the incoherent interface, local atomic displacements are determined along dislocation cores. By quantifying the spatial distribution and atomic-scale structure of these interfaces in three dimensions, this study provides insight into the complexity of silicon carbide heteropolytype interfaces, paving the way for theoretical modeling and the development of design rules to achieve desired properties.

heterophase interface↗

DOE OSTI2020

Towards Robustness Guarantees for Feedback-Based Optimization

Feedback-based online optimization algorithms have gained traction in recent years because of their simple implementation, their ability to reject disturbances in real time, and their increased robustness to model mismatch. While the robustness properties have been observed both in simulation and experimental results, the theoretical analysis in the literature is mostly limited to nominal conditions. In this work, we propose a framework to systematically assess the robust stability of feedback-based online optimization algorithms. We leverage tools from monotone operator theory, variational inequalities and classical robust control to obtain tractable numerical tests that guarantee robust convergence properties of online algorithms in feedback with a physical system, even in the presence of disturbances and model uncertainty. The results are illustrated via an academic example and a case study of a power distribution system.

approximation algorithms↗

DOE OSTI2020

VADER: A Tool for Criticality Safety Validation

The purpose of criticality safety is to prevent any inadvertent criticality from occurring during the handling or storage of fissile material. Calculations are frequently used to demonstrate that a sufficient subcritical margin exists. Validation is a key aspect of the evaluation process, establishing the suitability, accuracy, and associated uncertainty of the computational method and data to be used for the intended application. The validation process is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 in order to investigate the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. The validation parameters that are traditionally applied to safety analysis calculations are the bias and the bias uncertainty . The bias is the deviation of the average k eff of the validation suite from unity. The bias uncertainty accounts for the statistical uncertainty in the bias based on the standard deviation, sample size, and distribution of k eff values of the validation suite. The values of bias and bias uncertainty ensure that the systems predicted to be subcritical by the computational method will indeed be subcritical. The bias and bias uncertainty are often combined to determine an upper subcritical limit (USL) or computational margin that can then be applied to safety analysis calculations. Many methods have been developed by different organizations to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty for various types of criticality analyses. Each of these methods typically requires that the validity of various underpinning statistical assumptions be confirmed to demonstrate that the method is appropriate for the analysis of a given validation suite. An example of the validation decision making flow is shown in Fig.1. As shown in Fig. 1, the analyst performing the validation fits a trend line to the data and performs a test to determine if the trend was a statistically better representation of the data than if it were treated as an uncorrelated sample. If the trend line is a better representation of the data, then the analyst uses any one of a number of trending techniques to determine the bias and bias uncertainty. If a trend is not an appropriate representation of the data, then the analyst proceeds to perform a normality assessment for the data. If the normal assumption can be shown to be acceptable, then the analyst calculates the bias and bias uncertainty with the parametric technique. If the assumption of normality cannot be justified, then the nonparametric technique is used. Once the decision flow has been followed and the appropriate technique has been selected, the bias and bias uncertainty is typically combined with an administrative margin to determine a USL below which calculated values of k eff for safety analysis models can be considered subcritical. The calculations used in each decision are often performed with spreadsheets or with small programs available at various sites performing criticality analyses. Expertise in understanding and interpreting the results must be maintained to perform these calculations. This can often be an error-prone process. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently developing the Validation and Data Evaluation Resource (VADER) to simplify and automate the criticality safety validation process and to provide a software quality assurance pedigree to the calculational methods used. This paper discusses the use of the Fulcrum user interface with VADER, the anticipated initial capabilities of VADER to perform validation analyses, and the output from the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1987

Analysis of on-orbit thermal characteristics of the 15-meter hoop/column antenna

In recent years, interest in large deployable space antennae has led to the development of the 15 meter hoop/column antenna. The thermal environment the antenna is expected to experience during orbit is examined and the temperature distributions leading to reflector surface distortion errors are determined. Two flight orientations corresponding to: (1) normal operation, and (2) use in a Shuttle-attached flight experiment are examined. A reduced element model was used to determine element temperatures at 16 orbit points for both flight orientations. The temperature ranged from a minimum of 188 K to a maximum of 326 K. Based on the element temperatures, orbit position leading to possible worst case surface distortions were determined, and the subsequent temperatures were used in a static finite element analysis to quantify surface control cord deflections. The predicted changes in the control cord lengths were in the submillimeter ranges.

Andersen, Gregory C.↗

NASA NTRS2026

Smart Process Planning for Automated Fiber Placement

Many industries, including aerospace, automotive, wind energy, maritime, and sporting goods, rely on strong, lightweight materials called composites. These materials are made by layering fibers, which can come in the form of narrow strips or wider sheets, and setting them in a polymer matrix. One of the most advanced ways to make these parts is through automated fiber placement, where a machine lays down the fibers in precise patterns. This method can create very efficient and strong designs, but it is complex, expensive, and often depends heavily on the experience of skilled engineers. Today, the design, manufacturing, and inspection stages of composite production are usually handled separately. This separation means that important information, such as how a part will be built or what defects might occur, is not always shared between stages. As a result, parts may not be as lightweight, strong, or defect-free as possible, and the process can take longer and cost more. This research develops a smart process planning system that connects design, manufacturing, and inspection into one continuous process. Built as software that works with existing tools, the system can automatically plan how the fibers are placed, predicting and reducing defects while improving both manufacturability and strength. The system optimizes not only individual layers but also how defects are distributed across all layers, preventing them from stacking up in ways that weaken the final part. It also uses inspection results from completed parts to improve future designs, creating a feedback loop where each stage informs the others. The system was tested by designing a composite panel using this new approach and comparing it to a panel made with state-of-the-art manual planning methods. The results showed that the system could intentionally control where defects appeared and increase the efficiency of the planning process. By unifying design, manufacturing, and inspection, this research shows a way to make advanced composite manufacturing more efficient, consistent, and cost-effective. This approach lowers the barrier to using automated fiber placement and opens the door for its wider adoption not only in aerospace but also in industries such as automotive, wind energy, maritime, and sporting goods, where strong and lightweight structures are essential.

Computer-Aided Process Planning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development and Validation of MALAMUTE model for Electric Field Assisted Sintering of Structural Materials

Fusion power plant designs feature extreme material performance requirements for structural material candidates. In addition to conventional alloys, more advanced composites and oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) alloys are being explored, however, achieving the desired microstructures to maximize performance using traditional manufacturing methods can be challenging. The advanced manufacturing (AM) electric field-assisted sintering (EFAS) technique offers improved control over the final microstructure through higher heating and cooling rates and moderate pressures. Modeling and simulation tools show promise in elucidating the process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM-produced parts, including the EFAS process. An inherently multiscale process, the EFAS technique aligns well with the multiscale modeling capability of the open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)[cite]. We present here an electro-thermo-mechanical approach to modeling the EFAS process using the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) code. Prediction of the field and gradient distributions across the EFAS tooling is required to accurately describe the conditions for the lower-scale microstructural evolution models. In this work we present the MALAMUTE model developed to predict the electrical potential, temperature, and mechanical stress distribution across the EFAS graphite tooling and part at the larger engineering-scale. Validation of the MALAMUTE engineering-scale model is completed using data from experimental densification and pre-densified runs of iron powder via EFAS at 1000oC. These runs were conducted using a Thermal Technology DCS-5 EFAS system. Data collected during the experiment runs include the direct current (DC) supplied to the graphite tooling, the temperature of the graphite tooling as measured with a pyrometer, and the force applied to the top of the graphite tooling stack, and the data were recorded every 10 seconds. Our validation approach used the current and force data from the EFAS run as boundary condition inputs to the MAMALUTE simulation; the temperature data were used to evaluate the MALAMUTE EFAS model prediction. Results of the MALAMUTE simulations are employed to connect the external pyrometer temperature measurement to the temperature profile across the part undergoing consolidation. We investigate the impact of material property variation and mesh deformation on the temperature profile as predicted by MALAMUTE. We conclude by highlighting projects where the MALAMUTE EFAS modeling and simulation capabilities will be used to assist experimental design.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗