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DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Future Energy Value of Long-Duration Energy Storage

Long-duration energy storage is commonly viewed as a key technology for providing flexibility to the grid and broader energy systems over a multidecadal time frame. However, prior work has typically used present-day grid infrastructures to characterize the relationship between the duration and arbitrage value of storage in electricity markets. This study leverages established National Renewable Energy Laboratory grid planning and operations tools, analysis, and data to execute a price-taker model of an energy storage system for several 8760 h price series representative of current and future contiguous United States grid infrastructures with varying shares of variable renewable energy (VRE). We find that the total value of energy storage typically increases with VRE shares, but any increase in the relative value of longer storage durations over time depends on the region and grid mix. Some regions see incremental value increasing notably, up to 20–40 h in 2050, while others do not. The negative effect of lower roundtrip efficiency on value is also found to be scenario-dependent, with the energy value in higher VRE scenarios being less sensitive to roundtrip efficiency and more supportive of longer storage durations. Long-duration storage value and deployment potential are a function of evolving electricity sector infrastructure, markets, and policy, making it critical to consistently revisit potential long-duration storage contributions to the grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis: Preprint

circular economy↗

NASA NTRS2013

Massively Clustered CubeSats NCPS Demo Mission

Technologies under development for the proposed Nuclear Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (NCPS) will require an un-crewed demonstration mission before they can be flight qualified over distances and time frames representative of a crewed Mars mission. In this paper, we describe a Massively Clustered CubeSats platform, possibly comprising hundreds of CubeSats, as the main payload of the NCPS demo mission. This platform would enable a mechanism for cost savings for the demo mission through shared support between NASA and other government agencies as well as leveraged commercial aerospace and academic community involvement. We believe a Massively Clustered CubeSats platform should be an obvious first choice for the NCPS demo mission when one considers that cost and risk of the payload can be spread across many CubeSat customers and that the NCPS demo mission can capitalize on using CubeSats developed by others for its own instrumentation needs. Moreover, a demo mission of the NCPS offers an unprecedented opportunity to invigorate the public on a global scale through direct individual participation coordinated through a web-based collaboration engine. The platform we describe would be capable of delivering CubeSats at various locations along a trajectory toward the primary mission destination, in this case Mars, permitting a variety of potential CubeSat-specific missions. Cameras on various CubeSats can also be used to provide multiple views of the space environment and the NCPS vehicle for video monitoring as well as allow the public to "ride along" as virtual passengers on the mission. This collaborative approach could even initiate a brand new Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) program for launching student developed CubeSat payloads beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) on future deep space technology qualification missions. Keywords: Nuclear Propulsion, NCPS, SLS, Mars, CubeSat.

Robertson, Glen A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Electrostatic Evaluation of the ARES I FTS Antenna Materials

Surface resistivity and volume resistivity data show all the tested non-metallic materials of the Ares I FTS antenna assembly to be insulative. The external materials (White foam, phenolic) should be able to develop a large surface charge density upon tribocharging with ice crystal impingement. Dielectric breakdown tests on the FTS antenna housing materials show that each of the insulative materials are very resistive to electrical breakdown. The thicknesses of these materials in a nominal housing should protect the antenna from direct breakdown from external triboelectric charging potentials. Per data from the Air Force study, a maximum external electric potential in the range of 100kV can be developed on surfaces tribocharged by ice crystal impingement. Testing showed that under operational pressure ranges, this level of exterior voltage can result in a potential of about 6 kV induced on the electrically floating interior antenna vanes. Testing the vanes up to this voltage level showed that electrostatic discharges can occur between the electrically floating vanes and the center, grounded screw heads. Repeated tests with multiple invisible and visible discharges caused only superficial physical damage to the vanes. Fourier analysis of the discharge signals showed that the frequency range of credible discharges would not interfere with the nominal operation of the FTS antenna. However, due to the limited scope, short timetable, and limited funding of this study, a direct measurement of the triboelectric charge that could be generated on the Ares I antenna housing when the rocket traverses an ice cloud at supersonic speeds was not performed. Instead, data for the limited Air Force study [3] was used as input for our experiments. The Air Force data used was not collected with a sensor located to provide us with the best approximation at the geometry of the Ares I rocket, namely that of the windshield electrometer, because brush discharges to the metal frame of the windshield periodically depleted any charge accumulated. The configuration of the Ares I antenna assembly does not include any exposed metals in the vicinity and the windshield data could not be used. Since the windshield sensor data was unusable, we decided that the Patch 2 location would provide us with a rough approximation to the Ares I antenna configuration and would give us an indication of the possible charging levels that would develop. This was the data that we used in this study. Whether these charging levels would be of the same order of magnitude as the actual charges developed by the Ares I traversing a cloud with ice particles is at this point unknown. An actual experimental test, requiring the acquisition of additional instrumentation, is strongly advised before a final recommendation can be formulated regarding the safe levels of electrostatic charging on the antenna housing. Thus the results of this study should be considered to be preliminary.

Hogue, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Augmentation of Rocket Propulsion: Physical Limits

Rocket propulsion is not ideal when the propellant is not ejected at a unique velocity in an inertial frame. An ideal velocity distribution requires that the exhaust velocity vary linearly with the velocity of the vehicle in an inertial frame. It also requires that the velocity distribution variance as a thermodynamic quantity be minimized. A rocket vehicle with an inert propellant is not optimal, because it does not take advantage of the propellant mass for energy storage. Nor is it logical to provide another energy storage device in order to realize variable exhaust velocity, because it would have to be partly unfilled at the beginning of the mission. Performance is enhanced by pushing on the surrounding because it increases the reaction mass and decreases the reaction jet velocity. This decreases the fraction of the energy taken away by the propellant and increases the share taken by the payload. For an optimal model with the propellant used as fuel, the augmentation realized by pushing on air is greatest for vehicles with a low initial/final mass ratio. For a typical vehicle in the Earth's atmosphere, the augmentation is seen mainly at altitudes below about 80 km. When drag is taken into account, there is a well-defined optimum size for the air intake. Pushing on air has the potential to increase the performance of rockets which pass through the atmosphere. This is apart from benefits derived from "air breathing", or using the oxygen in the atmosphere to reduce the mass of an on-board oxidizer. Because of the potential of these measures, it is vital to model these effects more carefully and explore technology that may realize their advantages.

Taylor, Charles R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Development Overview of the Revised NASA Ultra Long Duration Balloon

The development of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Ultra Long Duration Balloon (ULDB) has made significant strides in addressing the deployment issues experienced in the scaling up of the balloon structure. This paper concentrates on the super-pressure balloon developments that have been, and are currently being planned by the NASA Balloon Program Office at Goddard Space Flight Center s Wallops Flight Facility. The goal of the NASA ULDB development project is to attempt to extend the potential flight durations for large scientific balloon payloads. A summary of the February 2005 test flight from Ft. Sumner, New Mexico will be presented. This test flight spurred a number of investigations and advancements for this project. The development path has pursued some new approaches in the design, analysis, and testing of the balloons. New issues have been ideEti6ed throu& both analysis md testing. These have been addressed in the design stage before the next balloon construction was begun. This paper will give an overview of the recent history for this effort and the development approach pursued for ULDB. A description of the balloon design, including the modifications made as a result of the lessons learned, will be presented. Areas to be presented include the design approach, deployment issues that have been encountered and the proposed solutions, ground testing, photogrammetry, and an analysis overview. Test flight planning and considerations will be presented including test flight safety. An extended duration test flight of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s Ultra Long Duration Balloon is planned for the May/June 2006 time frame. This flight is expected to fly from Sweden to either Canada or Alaska. Preliminary results of this flight will be presented as available. Future plans for both ground testing and additional test flights will also be presented. Goals of the future test flights, which are staged in increments of increasing suspended load and altitude, will be presented. This will include the projected balloon volumes, payload capabilities, test flight locations, and proposed flight schedule.

Cathey, H. M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prospects for exploring non-standard neutrino properties with argon-based CEvNS experiments

Coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering (CEvNS) provides a powerful frame-work for testing the Standard Model (SM) and searching for new physics at low energies. In this work, we examine the prospects for argon-based CEvNS experiments at stopped-pion sources to perform precision measurements of weak interactions and probe non-standard neutrino properties. Our study focused on the CENNS-10 and CENNS-750 detectors at the Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Coherent Captain Mills (CCM) detector at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the proposed PIP2-BD detector at Fermilab’s Facility for Dark Matter Discovery (F2D2). Using realistic neutrino fluxes and detector configurations corresponding to these facilities, we evaluate event rates and sensitivities to a range of observables. Within the SM, argon-based CEvNS detectors enable precision tests of electroweak parameters, including the weak mixing angle, at momentum transfers well below the electroweak scale. We also investigate the sensitivity of these experiments to neutrino electromagnetic properties, such as the magnetic moment and effective charge radius, as well as to possible non-standard neutrino interactions with quarks. Together, these studies highlight the potential of argon-based CEvNS experiments as a clean and versatile platform for precision exploration of non-standard neutrino properties.

Carey, Sam [Wayne State U.] (ORCID:000900029607531↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH 4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1996

Response of Two Plant Species to Two Ultraviolet-B Radiation Regimes

The depleted stratospheric ozone layer has been directly linked to increased levels of ultraviolet radiation at the earth's surface. It is important to understand what effect this will have on plants. We tested the hypothesis that in response to increased UV-B radiation (280-320 man), soybean (Glycine max Merrill) and alfalfa (Mercado Saliva L.) would produce higher concentrations of flavonoids than plants screened from UV-B. Soybean and alfalfa plants were grown successively in a growth chamber that provided UV-B radiation intensities 45% above summer field levels. A wooden frame was used to suspend mylar-D film over one group of plants and mono-acetate film over another group. Mylar is opaque in the 280-316 nm range, and acetate absorbs most radiation from 280-290 nm and then reduces intensities in the 290-320 nm range by roughly 15%. Leaf chlorophyll concentration was determined with a Minolta SPAD-502 chlorophyll meter; the BRAD meter was calibrated with N,N- extractions. Flavonoids were extracted with an acidified methanol/water solution. Soybean grown under the acetate treatment showed 26% smaller internodal lengths and higher concentrations of flavonoids compared to plants grown under mylar. Significant results for alfalfa included 22% greater leaf flavonoid concentration under acetate, 14% greater leaf chlorophyll concentration under mylar, and 32% greater above-ground biomass under mylar. We found that increased UV-B radiation leads to increased production of UV-B absorbing compounds (i.e. flavonoids) in soybean and alfalfa leaves. This suggests that a protective mechanism in these plants is triggered by UV-B. In response, flavonoids are produced that absorb UV-B, and consequently decrease potentially damaging effects to the plants. In addition, we hypothesize that this flavonoid protection mechanism saturates at certain UV-B intensities.

Levy, Daniel L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fuel Fabrication Capability Assessment in Support of Advanced Reactor Deployments

More than 30 U.S. companies are designing a variety of advanced reactor concepts, and several companies are planning to demonstrate their reactor designs in the mid-2020s to late 2030s time frame. In 2020, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced a series of awards under the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) to accelerate the successful deployment of 10 of these reactors under three pathways. TerraPower and X-energy were awarded grants under the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program to deploy their respective Natrium reactor and Xe-100 reactor designs in the next 7–10 years. These demonstrations are in addition to several parallel programs, including the U.S. Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) interest in the development of microreactors, and interest of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in space nuclear power and propulsion. The National Reactor Innovation Center’s (NRIC’s) mission is to accelerate the demonstration and deployment of advanced reactors; NRIC is partnering with several reactor developers and harnessing the world-class capabilities of the U.S. National Laboratory system to deliver on its mission. Several of these reactor designs will require advanced fuel forms that are not commercially available today, including metal fuel, molten salt fuel, TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) particle fuel, and uranium nitride fuel. Recognizing that there may be potential gaps in the laboratory-scale process development and pilot-scale first-of-a-kind (FOAK) production of these fuel forms leading to delivery of the FOAK cores, NRIC commissioned this study to look at the challenges that need to be overcome for successful deliveries, including the evaluation of existing facilities and the potential need for a new fuel fabrication facility.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Transportable Gravity Gradiometer Based on Atom Interferometry

A transportable atom interferometer-based gravity gradiometer has been developed at JPL to carry out measurements of Earth's gravity field at ever finer spatial resolutions, and to facilitate high-resolution monitoring of temporal variations in the gravity field from ground- and flight-based platforms. Existing satellite-based gravity missions such as CHAMP and GRACE measure the gravity field via precise monitoring of the motion of the satellites; i.e. the satellites themselves function as test masses. JPL's quantum gravity gradiometer employs a quantum phase measurement technique, similar to that employed in atomic clocks, made possible by recent advances in laser cooling and manipulation of atoms. This measurement technique is based on atomwave interferometry, and individual laser-cooled atoms are used as drag-free test masses. The quantum gravity gradiometer employs two identical atom interferometers as precision accelerometers to measure the difference in gravitational acceleration between two points (Figure 1). By using the same lasers for the manipulation of atoms in both interferometers, the accelerometers have a common reference frame and non-inertial accelerations are effectively rejected as common mode noise in the differential measurement of the gravity gradient. As a result, the dual atom interferometer-based gravity gradiometer allows gravity measurements on a moving platform, while achieving the same long-term stability of the best atomic clocks. In the laboratory-based prototype (Figure 2), the cesium atoms used in each atom interferometer are initially collected and cooled in two separate magneto-optic traps (MOTs). Each MOT, consisting of three orthogonal pairs of counter-propagating laser beams centered on a quadrupole magnetic field, collects up to 10(exp 9) atoms. These atoms are then launched vertically as in an atom fountain by switching off the magnetic field and introducing a slight frequency shift between pairs of lasers to create a moving rest frame for the trapped atoms. While still in this moving-frame molasses, the laser frequencies are further detuned from the atomic resonance (while maintaining this relative frequency shift) to cool the atom cloud's temperature to 2 K or below, corresponding to an rms velocity of less than 2 cm/s. After launch, the cold atoms undergo further state and velocity selection to prepare for atom interferometry. The atom interferometers are then realized using laser-induced stimulated Raman transitions to perform the necessary manipulations of each atom, and the resulting interferometer phase is measured using laser-induced fluorescence for state-normalized detection. More than 20 laser beams with independent controls of frequency, phase, and intensity are required for this measurement sequence. This instrument can facilitate the study of Earth's gravitational field from surface and air vehicles, as well as from space by allowing gravity mapping from a low-cost, single spacecraft mission. In addition, the operation of atom interferometer-based instruments in space offers greater sensitivity than is possible in terrestrial instruments due to the much longer interrogation times available in the microgravity environment. A space-based quantum gravity gradiometer has the potential to achieve sensitivities similar to the GRACE mission at long spatial wavelengths, and will also have resolution similar to GOCE for measurement at shorter length scales.

Yu, Nan↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thinking the Other Unthinkable: Disarmament in North Korea and Beyond

The P5 have defined nuclear disarmament as both a process and an end state. Differences of view about the latter are sharp, bitter, and abiding. This has stripped the discussion about the former of much of its potential content and value. Where might we get, practically and conceptually, if we were to set aside for now questions about the ultimate feasibility and desirability of the long-term goal and focus instead on the process? Further, what if we were also to posit that there will be no “fundamental transformation” of the international political system of a kind that would make the nuclear-armed states, and their unarmed neighbors, unconcerned about the effectiveness of mechanisms for peace and security in a disarmed and disarming world? In this context, might it be possible to give states the confidence they would require to take more ambitious incremental steps on the disarmament pathway? How could such steps contribute to the relaxation of international tensions that the NPT itself describes as a critical enabler of disarmament? These questions motivate this timely and innovative new work by Toby Dalton and George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Their core objective is to “infuse needed realism into disarmament discussions.” Using North Korean disarmament as a test case, they explore a series of practical challenges and associated conceptual issues to frame a discussion of the possible disarming nucleararmed states. They begin by rightly noting that neither the advocates of the Ban treaty nor the advocates of North Korean disarmament have set our practical agendas for achieving their aims. They conclude that without an infusion of realism the “two polarized blocks” will continue to “stonewall and repel each other” and thus that “the risks of global nuclear disorder will grow.” This is the latest in the series of Livermore Papers begun in 2017 to stimulate the development of new strategic thought on emerging nuclear challenges. Conceptually, it is a follow-on to the inaugural Livermore Paper by Lewis Dunn on disarmament pathways. The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory or any of its sponsors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2009

Particle-Image Velocimeter Having Large Depth of Field

An instrument that functions mainly as a particle-image velocimeter provides data on the sizes and velocities of flying opaque particles. The instrument is being developed as a means of characterizing fluxes of wind-borne dust particles in the Martian atmosphere. The instrument could also adapted to terrestrial use in measuring sizes and velocities of opaque particles carried by natural winds and industrial gases. Examples of potential terrestrial applications include monitoring of airborne industrial pollutants and airborne particles in mine shafts. The design of this instrument reflects an observation, made in field research, that airborne dust particles derived from soil and rock are opaque enough to be observable by use of bright field illumination with high contrast for highly accurate measurements of sizes and shapes. The instrument includes a source of collimated light coupled to an afocal beam expander and an imaging array of photodetectors. When dust particles travel through the collimated beam, they cast shadows. The shadows are magnified by the beam expander and relayed to the array of photodetectors. Inasmuch as the images captured by the array are of dust-particle shadows rather of the particles themselves, the depth of field of the instrument can be large: the instrument has a depth of field of about 11 mm, which is larger than the depths of field of prior particle-image velocimeters. The instrument can resolve, and measure the sizes and velocities of, particles having sizes in the approximate range of 1 to 300 m. For slowly moving particles, data from two image frames are used to calculate velocities. For rapidly moving particles, image smear lengths from a single frame are used in conjunction with particle- size measurement data to determine velocities.

Bos, Brent↗

NASA NTRS2007

Potential of VIIRS Time Series Data for Aiding the USDA Forest Service Early Warning System for Forest Health Threats: A Gypsy Moth Defoliation Case Study

This report details one of three experiments performed during FY 2007 for the NASA RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) at Stennis Space Center. This RPC experiment assesses the potential of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data for detecting and monitoring forest defoliation from the non-native Eurasian gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar). The intent of the RPC experiment was to assess the degree to which VIIRS data can provide forest disturbance monitoring information as an input to a forest threat EWS (Early Warning System) as compared to the level of information that can be obtained from MODIS data. The USDA Forest Service (USFS) plans to use MODIS products for generating broad-scaled, regional monitoring products as input to an EWS for forest health threat assessment. NASA SSC is helping the USFS to evaluate and integrate currently available satellite remote sensing technologies and data products for the EWS, including the use of MODIS products for regional monitoring of forest disturbance. Gypsy moth defoliation of the mid-Appalachian highland region was selected as a case study. Gypsy moth is one of eight major forest insect threats listed in the Healthy Forest Restoration Act (HFRA) of 2003; the gypsy moth threatens eastern U.S. hardwood forests, which are also a concern highlighted in the HFRA of 2003. This region was selected for the project because extensive gypsy moth defoliation occurred there over multiple years during the MODIS operational period. This RPC experiment is relevant to several nationally important mapping applications, including agricultural efficiency, coastal management, ecological forecasting, disaster management, and carbon management. In this experiment, MODIS data and VIIRS data simulated from MODIS were assessed for their ability to contribute broad, regional geospatial information on gypsy moth defoliation. Landsat and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) data were used to assess the quality of gypsy moth defoliation mapping products derived from MODIS data and from simulated VIIRS data. The project focused on use of data from MODIS Terra as opposed to MODIS Aqua mainly because only MODIS Terra data was collected during 2000 and 2001-years with comparatively high amounts of gypsy moth defoliation within the study area. The project assessed the quality of VIIRS data simulation products. Hyperion data was employed to assess the quality of MODIS-based VIIRS simulation datasets using image correlation analysis techniques. The ART (Application Research Toolbox) software was used for data simulation. Correlation analysis between MODIS-simulated VIIRS data and Hyperion-simulated VIIRS data for red, NIR (near-infrared), and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) image data products collectively indicate that useful, effective VIIRS simulations can be produced using Hyperion and MODIS data sources. The r(exp 2) for red, NIR, and NDVI products were 0.56, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively, indicating a moderately high correlation between the 2 data sources. Temporal decorrelation from different data acquisition times and image misregistration may have lowered correlation results. The RPC experiment also generated MODIS-based time series data products using the TSPT (Time Series Product Tool) software. Time series of simulated VIIRS NDVI products were produced at approximately 400-meter resolution GSD (Ground Sampling Distance) at nadir for comparison to MODIS NDVI products at either 250- or 500-meter GSD. The project also computed MODIS (MOD02) NDMI (Normalized Difference Moisture Index) products at 500-meter GSD for comparison to NDVI-based products. For each year during 2000-2006, MODIS and VIIRS (simulated from MOD02) time series were computed during the peak gypsy moth defoliation time frame in the study area (approximately June 10 through July 27). Gypsy moth defoliation mapping products from simated VIIRS and MOD02 time series were produced using multiple methods, including image classification and change detection via image differencing. The latter enabled an automated defoliation detection product computed using percent change in maximum NDVI for a peak defoliation period during 2001 compared to maximum NDVI across the entire 2000-2006 time frame. Final gypsy moth defoliation mapping products were assessed for accuracy using randomly sampled locations found on available geospatial reference data (Landsat and ASTER data in conjunction with defoliation map data from the USFS). Extensive gypsy moth defoliation patches were evident on screen displays of multitemporal color composites derived from MODIS data and from simulated VIIRS vegetation index data. Such defoliation was particularly evident for 2001, although widespread denuded forests were also seen for 2000 and 2003. These visualizations were validated using aforementioned reference data. Defoliation patches were visible on displays of MODIS-based NDVI and NDMI data. The viewing of apparent defoliation patches on all of these products necessitated adoption of a specialized temporal data processing method (e.g., maximum NDVI during the peak defoliation time frame). The frequency of cloud cover necessitated this approach. Multitemporal simulated VIIRS and MODIS Terra data both produced effective general classifications of defoliated forest versus other land cover. For 2001, the MOD02-simulated VIIRS 400-meter NDVI classification produced a similar yet slightly lower overall accuracy (87.28 percent with 0.72 Kappa) than the MOD02 250-meter NDVI classification (88.44 percent with 0.75 Kappa). The MOD13 250-meter NDVI classification had a lower overall accuracy (79.13 percent) and a much lower Kappa (0.46). The report discusses accuracy assessment results in much more detail, comparing overall classification and individual class accuracy statistics for simulated VIIRS 400-meter NDVI, MOD02 250-meter NDVI, MOD02-500 meter NDVI, MOD13 250-meter NDVI, and MOD02 500-meter NDMI classifications. Automated defoliation detection products from simulated VIIRS and MOD02 data for 2001 also yielded similar, relatively high overall classification accuracy (85.55 percent for the VIIRS 400-meter NDVI versus 87.28 percent for the MOD02 250-meter NDVI). In contrast, the USFS aerial sketch map of gypsy moth defoliation showed a lower overall classification accuracy at 73.64 percent. The overall classification Kappa values were also similar for the VIIRS (approximately 0.67 Kappa) versus the MOD02 (approximately 0.72 Kappa) automated defoliation detection product, which were much higher than the values exhibited by the USFS sketch map product (overall Kappa of approximately 0.47). The report provides additional details on the accuracy of automated gypsy moth defoliation detection products compared with USFS sketch maps. The results suggest that VIIRS data can be effectively simulated from MODIS data and that VIIRS data will produce gypsy moth defoliation mapping products that are similar to MODIS-based products. The results of the RPC experiment indicate that VIIRS and MODIS data products have good potential for integration into the forest threat EWS. The accuracy assessment was performed only for 2001 because of time constraints and a relative scarcity of cloud-free Landsat and ASTER data for the peak defoliation period of the other years in the 2000-2006 time series. Additional work should be performed to assess the accuracy of gypsy moth defoliation detection products for additional years.The study area (mid-Appalachian highlands) and application (gypsy moth forest defoliation) are not necessarily representative of all forested regions and of all forest threat disturbance agents. Additional work should be performed on other inland and coastal regions as well as for other major forest threats.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Comparison of Stratospheric Smoke Events Seen by SAGE II (1984-2005) and SAGE III (2017-2021)

The ongoing Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment aboard the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) has mostly occurred during a period of relatively low aerosol loading. At the same time, it has almost observed a number of small to moderate injections of volcanic material in the stratosphere from the Aoba/Ambae eruption of 2018 to that of Karymsky in 2022. In addition, two of the largest known smoke intrusions into the stratosphere have occurred during the SAGE III/ISS mission (the British Columbia fire of August 2017 and the Australian Wildfire Event of 2019/2020). At least two other much smaller smoke events have also been observed in the SAGE III data (California Creek in September 2020 and McKay Creek in June 2021). Particularly with the two large events, it is tempting to speculate that these events are increasing in intensity and frequency possibly due to ongoing climate change. Realistically, change is difficult to assess since instrument data sets that can be used for quantifying historical events can be quite different in what and where they provide measurements. This complicates comparing one event to another potentially separated by many years. An exception to this issues are the measurements by SAGE III/ISS and those of its predecessor SAGE II (1984-2005). Both use the same measurement strategy, measure aerosol extinction coefficient at 1020 nm, and have similar spatial/temporal coverage. Both instruments are known to observe smoke events in the stratosphere. However, both have the same low observation density characteristic of solar occultation such that near-global coverage takes almost a month and characterizing effectively instant events like smoke and volcanic events take a matter of weeks depending on the vagaries of where the observations are being made at a critical juncture unlike instruments with high temporal/spatial resolution like limb-scatter instruments such as OMPS and OSIRIS. The goal of this work will be to use the same analysis approach to both the SAGE II and SAGE III data and compare both the frequency and intensity of smoke events observed by these instruments. While we do not expect to be able to make conclusions about change between the periods, the analysis is a first step in interpreting changes in the contribution of smoke to the stratospheric aerosol budget between the time frames encompassed by these instruments.

L. W. Thomason↗

NASA NTRS2021

LiDAR-Inertial Based Navigation and Mapping for Precision Landing

Future lander missions will travel to ambitious, scientifically interesting locations near rough and dangerous terrain. They will need to operate with limited prior information about the terrain, and under varying lighting conditions. Landing safely and precisely in the face of these challenges is difficult for existing vision-based landing systems, which require detailed orbital reconnaissance, a priori hazard maps, and impose time-of-day restrictions on landing to ensure similar lighting conditions in orbital and descent imagery. Advanced 3D imaging LiDAR systems currently under development, and originally intended for single-scan hazard detection, have the potential to be operated continuously from altitudes of up to 5 km. Used together with existing inertial measurement units (IMUs), these sensors open a path-to-flight for a full navigation and mapping system, which could replace or augment a traditional landing sensor suite. A landing system based around these sensors can perform accurate altimetry, map-relative localization (MRL), LiDAR-inertial odometry, and map refinement in an illumination-insensitive manner, over unknown or partially known terrain. This paper outlines preliminary work on a LiDAR-inertial landing system that: estimates the spacecraft trajectory during entry, descent, and landing (EDL); and maps the topography of the terrain below, for future use in hazard detection and avoidance. An incremental, factor graph based, smoothing approach is used to solve for the maximum a posteriori trajectory of spacecraft states. Integrated IMU measurements and features tracked in adjacent range and intensity images are used to estimate motion (LiDAR-inertial odometry). LiDAR scans are binned into motion-corrected digital elevation models (DEMs), which are matched to an existing orbital topographic map to provide absolute position information (MRL). The estimated trajectory is then used to project the LiDAR scans into the map frame, creating a variable-resolution quadtree topographic map suitable for hazard detection and avoidance. Existing topographic maps from throughout the solar system (i.e., Earth, the Moon, Mars, Ceres, Vesta, Europa, Enceladus, and Eros) are upsampled for use in EDL simulations. The Mars 2020 Lander Vision System Simulator (LVSS) is extended to simulate LiDAR-inertial data for realistic EDL trajectories. Results of the algorithm operating on the simulated data are presented. Estimated spacecraft trajectory and refined map are compared to ground truth to assess estimation accuracy.

Katake, Anup↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of GHGSat Methane Emission Estimations of South Side Landfill in Indianapolis, Indiana

As global methane (CH4) continues to grow, accurate quantification of CH4 emission sources has become a high priority for climate management. Urban CH4 emissions in the US could potentially account close to 20% of the national CH4 anthropogenic emissions. While isolated insitu urban CH4 emissions quantification projects have been successful, they require sophisticated planning and prolonged analyses. Such studies are imperative, but they cannot easily operate in every city. An ability to quantify the magnitude of CH4 point sources in a variety of cities with a satellite could support wide scale urban CH4 emissions quantification. Whole-earth scanning satellite instruments such as the TROPOMI and GOSAT are too coarse and noisy to provide meaningful measurements over cities with mid-strength emissions and most point-source emissions in general. It may be possible to address this deficiency utilizing a product with the high spatial resolution of 30-50 m from a private company GHGSat Inc. These sensors are specifically designed to identify and quantify CH4 emissions from diverse types of point sources of varying intensities. In this work we analyze a year (05/2023-05/2024) of GHGSat scans over South Side Landfill in downtown Indianapolis, Indiana and assess the instruments’ accuracy and precision with respect to prior estimations. The results indicate that the data are helpful for estimating landfill’s emissions (~750 kg/hr ± 200 kg/hr) over months-to-a-year time frame but may not be appropriate for identifying daily or even seasonal variations with any trustable degree of certainty, at least not in an urban environment.

Nikolay Balashov↗