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At least 703 records · Page 39

Bayesian Model Calibration for Extrapolative Prediction via Gibbs Posteriors

The current standard Bayesian approach to model calibration, which assigns a Gaussian process prior to the discrepancy term, often suffers from issues of unidentifiability and computational complexity and instability. When the goal is to quantify uncertainty in physical parameters for extrapolative prediction, then there is no need to perform inference on the discrepancy term. With this in mind, we introduce Gibbs posteriors as an alternative Bayesian method for model calibration, which updates the prior with a loss function connecting the data to the parameter. The target of inference is the physical parameter value which minimizes the expected loss. We propose to tune the loss scale of the Gibbs posterior to maintain nominal frequentist coverage under assumptions of the form of model discrepancy, and present a bootstrap implementation for approximating coverage rates. Our approach is highly modular, allowing an analyst to easily encode a wide variety of such assumptions. Furthermore, we provide a principled method of combining posteriors calculated from data subsets. We apply our methods to data from an experiment measuring the material properties of tantalum.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

VISION: a modular AI assistant for natural human-instrument interaction at scientific user facilities

Scientific user facilities, such as synchrotron beamlines, are equipped with a wide array of hardware and software tools that require a codebase for human-computer-interaction. This often necessitates developers to be involved to establish connection between users/researchers and the complex instrumentation. The advent of generative AI presents an opportunity to bridge this knowledge gap, enabling seamless communication and efficient experimental workflows. Here we present a modular architecture for the Virtual Scientific Companion by assembling multiple AI-enabled cognitive blocks that each scaffolds large language models (LLMs) for a specialized task. With VISION, we performed LLM-based operation on the beamline workstation with low latency and demonstrated the first voice-controlled experiment at an x-ray scattering beamline. The modular and scalable architecture allows for easy adaptation to new instruments and capabilities. Development on natural language-based scientific experimentation is a building block for an impending future where a science exocortex—a synthetic extension to the cognition of scientists—may radically transform scientific practice and discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Resource Aware Intelligent Network Services (RAINS) Final Technical Report

The Resource Aware Intelligent Network Services (RAINS) project conducted research and developed technologies in the area of cyber infrastructure resource modeling and computation. The goal of this work was to provide a foundation to enable intelligent, software defined services which spanned the network AND the resources which connect to the network. A Multi-Resource Service Plane (MRSP) was defined, which allows resource owners/managers to locate and place themselves from a topology and service availability perspective within the dynamic networked cyberinfrastructure ecosystem. The MRSP enables the presentation of integrated topology views and computation results which can include resources across the spectrum of compute, storage, and networks. The RAINS project developed MSRP includes the following key components: i) Multi-Resource Service (MRS) Ontology/Multi-Resource Markup Language (MRML), ii) Resource Computation Engine (RCE), iii) Modular Driver Framework (to allow integration of a variety of external resources). The MRS/MRML is a general and extensible modeling framework that allows for resource owners to model, or describe, a wide variety of resource types. All resources are described using three categories of elements: Resources, Services, and Relationships between the elements. This modeling framework defines a common method for the transformation of cyber infrastructure resources into data in the form of MRML models. In order to realize this infrastructure datification, the RAINS project developed a model based computation system, i.e. “RAINS Computation Engine (RCE)”. The RCE has the ability to ingest, process, integrate, and compute based on automatically generated MRML models. The RCE interacts with the resources thru system drivers which are specific to the type of external network or resource controller. The RAINS project developed a modular and pluggable driver system which facilities a variety of resource controllers to automatically generate, maintain, and distribute MRML based resource descriptions. Once all of the resource topologies are absorbed by the RCE, a connected graph of the full distributed system topology is constructed, which forms the basis for computation and workflow processing. The RCE includes a Modular Computation Element (MCE) framework which allows for tailoring of the computation process to the specific set of resources under control, and the services desired. The input and output of an MCE are both model data based on MRS/MRML ontology and schema. Some of the RAINS project accomplishments include: Development of general and extensible multi-resource modeling framework; Design of a Resource Computation Engine (RCE) system which includes the following key capabilities; Absorb a variety of multi-resource model types and build integrated models; Novel architecture which uses model based communications across the full stack for all Flexible provision of abstract or intent based user facing interfaces; Workflow processing based on model descriptions; Release of the RCE as an open source software; Deployment of RCE in the University of Maryland/Mid-Atlantic Crossroad ScienceDMZ in prototype mode with a plan under way to transition to production; Deployment at the Argonne National Laboratory DTN Facility in prototype mode; Selection of RCE by the DOE SENSE (SDN for End-to-end Networked Science at the Exascale) project as the basis for their orchestration service.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fuel Heating System Design and Thermal Modeling for Aviation Combustion Research

Aviation fuels offer substantial heat-sink capability that can be applied to aircraft thermal-management strategies and advanced propulsion-system concepts. Accurate control of fuel temperature is critical for understanding combustion behavior and supporting high temperature fuel experimental studies. This work describes the modeling and experimental validation of a portable, high temperature fuel-conditioning system designed for multiple NASA Glenn Research Center’s combustion facilities. The system utilizes a circulating-oil heating unit and modular tube-in-tube heat exchangers capable of conditioning Jet-A to temperatures approaching 600 K. A Thermal Desktop model was created to analyze heat exchanger configurations and predict performance across a range of operating conditions. Model predictions were compared with measurements collected in the CE-13C test facility, showing good agreement across the tested flow range except at low fuel flow rate around 2 kg/hr. Results provide guidance for sizing future fuel heating system for combustion research applications.

Jet fuel heating system↗

Radiological Performance Modeling: Platform Comparison

Zapadnoe Uranium Mill Tailings Site, Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant Ukraine: Two exposure scenarios were utilized to develop performance assessment models in GoldSim and NORMALYSA. The first scenario is an onsite worker exposed to radioactivity through external ground irradiation as well as radon and radioactive dust inhalation. The second being an offsite Resident 300 years after institutional control exposed through the ingestion of garden vegetables irrigated by contaminated ground water, ingestion of fish from Konoplyanka River, and agricultural activities in contaminated garden. NORMALYSA utilizes a modular interface to connect extensive pre-created modules to develop contaminant transport and risk assessment models for safety assessments and performance assessments at NORM and legacy sites. Developed by Facilia AB, the program was tested with the creation of the Zapadnoe model under the International Atomic Energy Agency MODARIA Il Working Group 1 (WG1). Default values are provided for input parameters where site specific data and distributions lack. Probabilistic simulations and inputs are limited to parameters with assigned Gaussian probability functions. Similar results for transient worker inhalation dose were found in comparison with the Zapadnoe GoldSim model. However, the NORMALYSA model has results larger by an order of magnitude for external radiation in the transient worker and for aquatic food ingestion, inhalation, and garden food ingestion to the resident. Performance Assessment Modeling: Radiological performance models promote good management and support in remediation and environmental decision making by optimizing radioactive waste disposal site performance. a performance assessment model of the Zapadnoe uranium mill tailings site and a model for calculating authorized limits at Los Alamos National Laboratory are created to demonstrate and highlight the respective capabilities of three modeling platforms: GoldSim, NORMALYSA, and RESRAD-Onsite. GoldSim is a general-purpose modeling platform with the ability to simulate site-specific FT radionuclide transport and risk assessment using a graphical interface to create and link elements that act as indivisible building blocks of the model. The Zapadnoe performance assessment model created in GoldSim is composed of input parameters collected from site specific parameters from WG1 as well as standard assumptions seen in the Generic PA Model from Neptune and Company. The multivariate Zapadnoe simulation contains both deterministic and probabilistic simulation capabilities with the ability to quantitatively represent the uncertainty and associated risks of the site via the Monte Carlo simulation method. Model parameters, documentation, and assumptions are built directly into the model creating a transparent, reproducible, and more purposeful site specific model. To demonstrate this, an ingestion of water pathway was included in addition to the exposure pathways included in the NORMALYSA model. GoldSim offers a wide variety of probability distributions to choose from as well as many tools to visualize the uncertainty of the models and explore which pathways and radionuclides dominate dose. In contrast to the NORMALYSA model, the GoldSim model uses dynamic simulation to calculate tritium concentrations. Authorized limits support the evaluation of radiological health effects from radionuclides present in bulk contaminated soil in order to assist in the process of clearing land for release under different uses. Calculations of authorized limits in RESRAD-Onsite and GoldSim models support the evaluation for 15 radionuclides using a residential exposure scenario, indoor and outdoor inhalation of dust and vapor phase radionuclides (tritium), incidental soil ingestion, and ingestion grown fruits and Vegetables. RESRAD-Onsite, developed by Argonne National Laboratory is a dedicated computer code for calculating radiation doses and cancer risks to an individual located on top of radioactively contaminated soils. It can also be used to provide guidelines for deriving radionuclide soil levels corresponding to a specific dose criterion. The menu driven user interface facilitates selection of radionuclides and soil concentrations, as well as defines parameter values related to materials, environmental factors, and exposure pathways. The program contains radionuclide-specific data such as dose conversion factors and risk coefficients, as well as soil-water partition coefficients and transfer factors for biotic media. The GoldSim model successfully emulates the RESRAD-Onsite code using identical radiological decay and ingrowth factors, radiation dose conversion factors, and other input parameters. DE EEDE ETS Each model supports dynamic modeling of radionuclide ingrowth and decay over time, and integrate this capability with the transport of radionuclides in the environment via processes such as advection and/or diffusion in fluids, or within porous solid media, The applicability of each program is heavily dependent on project context. In the context of developing Authorized Limits, RESRAD-Onsite may be a more desirable option as it was developed for this particular application. For simple disposal or legacy sites or sites that do not need site-specific model structure, NORMALYSA may be a desirable modeling platform, GoldSim can be used to model any problem for which RESRAD or NORMALYSA is applicable, but its strength lies in its flexibility, analytical, and probabilistic capabilities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Modular cell-free expression plasmids to accelerate biological design in cells

Industrial biotechnology aims to produce high-value products from renewable resources. This can be challenging because model microorganisms—organisms that are easy to use like Escherichia coli—often lack the machinery required to utilize desired feedstocks like lignocellulosic biomass or syngas. Non-model organisms, such as Clostridium, are industrially proven and have desirable metabolic features but have several hurdles to mainstream use. Namely, these species grow more slowly than conventional laboratory microbes, and genetic tools for engineering them are far less prevalent. To address these hurdles for accelerating cellular design, cell-free synthetic biology has matured as an approach for characterizing non-model organisms and rapidly testing metabolic pathways in vitro. Unfortunately, cell-free systems can require specialized DNA architectures with minimal regulation that are not compatible with cellular expression. In this work, we develop a modular vector system that allows for T7 expression of desired enzymes for cell-free expression and direct Golden Gate assembly into Clostridium expression vectors. Utilizing the Joint Genome Institute’s DNA Synthesis Community Science Program, we designed and synthesized these plasmids and genes required for our projects allowing us to shuttle DNA easily between our in vitro and in vivo experiments. We next validated that these vectors were sufficient for cell-free expression of functional enzymes, performing on par with the previous state-of-the-art. Lastly, we demonstrated automated six-part DNA assemblies for Clostridium autoethanogenum expression with efficiencies ranging from 68% to 90%. We anticipate this system of plasmids will enable a framework for facile testing of biosynthetic pathways in vitro and in vivo by shortening development cycles.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

SPEL: Software tool for Porting E3SM Land Model with OpenACC in a Function Unit Test Framework

Most high-end computers adopt hybrid architecture, porting a large-scale scientific code onto accelerators is necessary. The paper presents a generic method for porting large-scale scientific code onto accelerators using compiler directives within a modularized function unit test platform. We have implemented the method and designed a software tool (SPEL) to port the E3SM Land Model (ELM) onto the GPUs in the Summit computer. SPEL automatically generates GPU-ready test modules for all ELM functions, such as CanopyFlux, SoilTemperature, and EcosystemDynamics. SPEL breaks the ELM into a collection of standalone unit test programs for easy code verification and further performance improvement. We further optimize several ELM test modules with advanced techniques, including memory reduction, reconstructed parallel loops, and asynchronous GPU kernel launch. We hope our study will inspire new toolkit developments that expedite large-scale scientific code porting with compiler directives.

Schwartz, Peter↗

Network Uncertainty Quantification for Analysis of Multi-Component Systems

To impact physical mechanical system design decisions and realize the full promise of high-fidelity computational tools, simulation results must be integrated at the earliest stages of the design process. This is particularly challenging when dealing with uncertainty and optimizing for system-level performance metrics, as full-system models (often notoriously expensive and time-consuming to develop) are generally required to propagate uncertainties to system-level quantities of interest. Methods for propagating parameter and boundary condition uncertainty in networks of interconnected components hold promise for enabling design under uncertainty in real-world applications. These methods avoid the need for time consuming mesh generation of full-system geometries when changes are made to components or subassemblies. Additionally, they explicitly tie full-system model predictions to component/subassembly validation data which is valuable for qualification. These methods work by leveraging the fact that many engineered systems are inherently modular, being comprised of a hierarchy of components and subassemblies that are individually modified or replaced to define new system designs. By doing so, these methods enable rapid model development and the incorporation of uncertainty quantification earlier in the design process. The resulting formulation of the uncertainty propagation problem is iterative. We express the system model as a network of interconnected component models, which exchange solution information at component boundaries. We present a pair of approaches for propagating uncertainty in this type of decomposed system and provide implementations in the form of an open-source software library. We demonstrate these tools on a variety of applications and demonstrate the impact of problem-specific details on the performance and accuracy of the resulting UQ analysis. This work represents the most comprehensive investigation of these network uncertainty propagation methods to date.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Force Field X: A computational microscope to study genetic variation and organic crystals using theory and experiment

Force Field X (FFX) is an open-source software package for atomic resolution modeling of genetic variants and organic crystals that leverages advanced potential energy functions and experimental data. FFX currently consists of nine modular packages with novel algorithms that include global optimization via a many-body expansion, acid–base chemistry using polarizable constant-pH molecular dynamics, estimation of free energy differences, generalized Kirkwood implicit solvent models, and many more. Applications of FFX focus on the use and development of a crystal structure prediction pipeline, biomolecular structure refinement against experimental datasets, and estimation of the thermodynamic effects of genetic variants on both proteins and nucleic acids. The use of Parallel Java and OpenMM combines to offer shared memory, message passing, and graphics processing unit parallelization for high performance simulations. Overall, the FFX platform serves as a computational microscope to study systems ranging from organic crystals to solvated biomolecular systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation—specifically the PTC and ITC—on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR’s net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

COSMIC DAWN: Distributed Analysis of Wireless at Nextscale

Distributed Analysis of Wireless at Nextscale (DAWN) is a novel simulation framework for large-scale design-space exploration (DSE) of unmodified software-defined radio (SDR) applications interacting in a scalable, high-fidelity, virtual physics environment. The software-defined nature of the coupled software-physics simulation leverages hardware emulation to permit in-depth examination and modification of not only the electromagnetic environment, including each signal in flight, but also the precise state of system software and components. DAWN supports modular, customizable physics environments allowing realistic propagation effects so that computationally efficient empirical models, reduced order/surrogate models, or large-scale, high-fidelity, site-specific simulations can be used as a propagation medium based on scenario requirements. This paper introduces DAWN’s design and initial implementation, detailing key architectural components, including the Physics Realization Engine (PhyRE), Runtime Infrastructure for Simulation Environments (RISE), and the design space exploration (DSE) suite. It concludes with demonstrations using unmodified 4G/LTE software available from srsRAN on computing resources ranging from a small cluster to ORNL’s Frontier Exascale system.

Wise, Mike [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000266120641)↗

SNL-NJOY-2016

This is a wrapper around the LANL NJOY-2016 code that interfaces with extended code capabilities and minor modification of the LANL NJOY-2016 code that supports modeling radiation damage to materials. The NJOY Nuclear Data Processing System is a modular computer code designed to read evaluated data in ENDF format, transform the data in various ways, and output the results as libraries designed to be used in various applications. The wrapper provided here permits Sandia-specific control parameters to be used in the input data file. The modifications incorporated here enhance the ability of NJOY to address material damage response functions for many materials, e.g. to include the NRT and arc-dpa forms of the damage energy in addition to the default NJOY-2016 implementation of the sharp-threshold Kinchin-Pease threshold energy treatment. All of the modifications provided here are being made available to the GitHub-based NJOY-2016 code. As useful enhancements found here are incorporated into the baseline NJOY-2016 code, they will be eliminated from this version so as to maintain our compatibility with the baseline NJOY-2016 code. SAND2020-13060 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA00035

Griffin, Patrick↗

PyJMAK: An Open-Source Python Toolkit for Modeling Solid-State Metallurgical Phase Transformations

Accurate prediction of metallurgical phase transformations is an essential basis for autonomous optimization and rapid part qualification. Several methods can be used to estimate the evolution of phase fractions such as JMAK kinetics-based models, phase-field models, thermodynamic models, and data-driven machine learning models. Thermodynamic and phase-field-based methodologies solve multiphysics equations requiring numerous calibration parameters and significant computational resources. As a result, the computation domain is limited to a point or on order of micron-meters. The data-driven models rely on large datasets from experiments and simulations. While the JMAK model only provides information about phase fraction evolution, it can predict this evolution in near real-time using thermal history and thermodynamic data without restriction on the domain. JMAK models have been popularly used by researchers to model phase transformations occuring during additive manufacturing or over arbitrary temperature profiles. Commercial proprietary software such as Abaqus and Ansys or closed-source in-house implementations offer the ability to model JMAK based kinetics to predict phase transformation. However, these software packages are not open-source or freely available for use and development in conjunction with manufacturing machines, sensors, and machine learning algorithms. In addition, the use of the model is restricted by a license token. In contrast, given temperature profiles at multiple points in the domain, this Python-based PyJMAK model can compute phase evolution in parallel due to its stand-alone modular, voxel-based structure, and it can be executed on high-performance computing resources without any license restrictions.

Prabhune, Bhagya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

Sequential Monte Carlo for Cut-Bayesian Posterior Computation

We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method to efficiently and accurately compute cut-Bayesian posterior quantities of interest, variations of standard Bayesian approaches constructed primarily to account for model misspecification. We prove finite sample concentration bounds for estimators derived from the proposed method along with a linear tempering extension and apply these results to a realistic setting where a computer model is misspecified. We then illustrate the SMC method for inference in a modular chemical reactor example that includes submodels for reaction kinetics, turbulence, mass transfer, and diffusion. The samples obtained are commensurate with a direct-sampling approach that consists of running multiple Markov chains, with computational efficiency gains using the SMC method. Overall, the SMC method presented yields a novel, rigorous approach to computing with cut-Bayesian posterior distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modular Autonomous Experimentation for Biological Applications

The Modular Autonomous Research System (MARS) was created to address a key challenge in scientific discovery: experiments are often slow, require significant manual labor, and generate data that is not easily integrated across different tools. This limits how quickly scientists can explore new materials, processes, and chemical reactions. Our motivation was to design a system that makes research faster, more reliable, and adaptable by combining automation with artificial intelligence. By doing so, we aimed to reduce human error, accelerate discovery, and allow researchers to quickly test many possibilities that would otherwise take months or years. Our approach was to build a flexible platform that connects laboratory robots, measurement instruments, and a central data system, all guided by artificial intelligence. MARS integrates liquid handling robots, robotic arms, and plate readers with an intelligent decision-making system that chooses the most informative experiments to run next. This creates a closed loop where experiments are performed automatically, the data is analyzed in real time, and new conditions are immediately tested. Through this work, we demonstrated that MARS can carry out multiple experiments with little or no human intervention, adapt to different scientific problems, and handle uncertain or noisy measurements in a robust way. The results show that modular and intelligent automation can significantly accelerate the pace of discovery, providing a model for future self-driving laboratories. This approach addresses the growing scientific need for adaptable, data-driven research platforms that can keep up with the complexity and scale of modern science.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Deployable UHV Pump

This project presents an external motorized actuation system for a deployable ultra-high vacuum (UHV) pump, enabling internal motion without compromising vacuum conditions. All active components remain external due to environmental and space constraints. A motor-driven mechanical feedthrough transfers motion into the pump, supported by a modular, adjustable mounting system that maintains alignment and integrates with existing hardware. CAD modeling and iterative design were used to refine geometry and ensure proper fit. The final design reliably transfers motion while maintaining alignment and structural integrity. Its adjustability improves installation and maintenance, demonstrating a practical solution for actuation in UHV systems.

Remington, Austin [Northern Illinois U.]↗

Air pollution from aircraft

A model which predicts nitric oxide and carbon monoxide emissions from a swirl can modular combustor is discussed. A detailed analysis of the turbulent fuel-air mixing process in the swirl can module wake region is reviewed. Hot wire anemometry was employed, and gas sampling analysis of fuel combustion emissions were performed.

Heywood, J. B.↗

Role of empirical methods

There are different levels of helicopter noise prediction which may be appropriate at various stages in the design process. In the early preliminary design stages, when available information is usually limited to parameters such as gross weight, tip speed, forward speed, rotor radius, and possibly number of blades, one is limited to purely empirically based methodology. As the design progresses, and airfoil blade planforms and twists are defined, predictions of airloads, vortex paths, and compressibility effects may permit application of more analytically based sound pressure level prediction methods. At the present stage of development of first principle prediction methodology, however, the designer may still find it necessary to supplement such analyses with modifications based on empirical experience. Various causes and parameters of helicopter noise were identified and discussed from the standpoint of prediction. Rotational noise, blade-vortex interaction noise, thickness noise, broadband noise, and flyover noise were considered. A modular computer program for helicopter noise prediction (HELNOP) was described briefly. Wind tunnel models as useful tools in predicting full scale helicopter noise were also discussed.

Sternfeld, H.↗