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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Fossil Fuel Transitions Framework: Case studies of the decision-making process for energy and economic development pathways

The Net Zero World Initiative leverages expertise across U.S. government agencies and the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) national laboratories, in partnership with other governments and philanthropies, to accelerate the decarbonization of global energy systems. This whole-of-government approach supports countries committed to raising their climate ambitions by co-creating and implementing highly tailored, actionable technical and investment strategies that put just and sustainable net-zero solutions within reach. The Net Zero World Initiative enables country partners to harness the convening power and technical expertise of U.S. and international industry, think tanks, and technical institutions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

One Year In: Tracking the Impacts of NEM 3.0 on California’s Residential Solar Market

On December 15, 2022, the California Public Utilities Commission passed an overhaul of the net metering program for the state’s investor-owned utilities. The changes replaced the long-standing net energy metering (NEM) tariffs with a net billing tariff (NBT) structure—colloquially known as “NEM 3.0”—which significantly reduces the compensation for behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. The NEM tariffs remained open for new interconnection applications until April 15, 2023, but after that date, all new interconnection applications were submitted under NBT. Now, one year later, we have an opportunity to evaluate how the California solar market has evolved under this new compensation regime. As a precursor to its annual Tracking the Sun report, Berkeley Lab has released a short technical brief describing key trends in the California residential solar market since the roll-out of the new NBT structure. The purpose of this analysis is to provide empirical insights into how the market has evolved over the past year, confirming some expectations while also revealing several striking surprises.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pathways Analysis Summary: Decarbonization Potential for Industrial Subsectors - Preliminary Modeling Results

This provides a summary of draft modeling efforts undertaken by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Industrial Efficiency and Decarbonization Office (IEDO) as an extension and expansion of the 2022 Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap. IEDO is providing these draft modeling results to support stakeholder engagement and inform office- and department wide strategy and decision making. Section 1 provides an overview of the context for this analysis and modeling as well as information on the decarbonization pillars characterized and the models themselves. Section 2 presents modeling results of one net-zero emissions pathway each for six industrial subsectors: cement, chemicals, food and beverage, iron and steel, petroleum refining, and pulp and paper. It is important to note that these pathways are just one example and there is no single pathway for any single industrial subsector. Competition across different possible pathways will be essential to industrial decarbonization success. Section 3 provides an overview of the “rest of industry” subsectors and a high-level overview of net-zero barriers, challenges, pathways, and technologies. IEDO will continue to consider net-zero pathways and modeling for these rest of industry subsectors. Additional details will be made available in the future on the IEDO website.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Spatial Variability of Aerosol, Cloud Condensation Nuclei, and Ice Nucleating Particles in Mountainous Terrain Field Campaign Report

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric System Research (ASR)-supported Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign in the East River Watershed (ERW) of the Upper Colorado River Basin in southwestern Colorado ran from fall 2021 to spring 2023. Two monitoring sites were deployed in the ERW as part of SAIL. The two sites were the Aerosol Observation System (AOS) located on Crested Butte Ski Mountain, and the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2), located at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Gothic, Colorado. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of aerosols in complex, mountainous terrain, Handix Scientific deployed SAIL-Net, a distributed network of six measurement nodes spanning the domain of the SAIL research area from October 2021 to July 2023. Each node measured aerosol particles between 140 nm and 3.4 μm in diameter using a small portable optical particle spectrometer (POPS; Gao et al. 2016), cloud condensation nuclei (CNN) using a miniature CCN counter (CloudPuck), and ice nucleating particles (INP) using the time-resolved aerosol filter sampler (TRAPS; Creamean et al. 2018). Our approach was similar to other studies that aimed to better characterize and understand aerosols and gas-phase pollutants using networks of lower-cost sensors (Caubel et al. 2019, Kelly et al. 2021, Asher et al. 2022). Such studies have identified neighborhood-level variations in pollutant concentrations (Schneider et al. 2017, Popoola et al. 2018, Caubel et al. 2019). Small-scale variations such as this are poorly represented in models and poorly measured by a single monitoring system (Caubel et al. 2019). Previous work has shown the representation error (the ability of measurements to represent a larger area) increases with complex orography, leading to decreases in model accuracy (Schutgens et al. 2017). The overall goal of SAIL-Net was to improve our understanding of the variability of aerosol in the ERW, thus increasing our knowledge of aerosol-cloud interactions in this region and informing the usefulness of distributed networks of measurements for future studies. We met this goal by answering the following science questions: 1. What is the aerosol temporal variability, and how does aerosol inhomogeneity vary seasonally? Is there significant seasonal variability in sources, or are short-term meteorological conditions the most important determining factor in sources for cloud nuclei? 2. What is the aerosol spatial variability? What are the aerosol characteristics at cloud base, presumably the particles most representative of those acting as cloud nuclei? 3. How should measurement networks be designed to capture aerosol-cloud interactions, and what do they need to measure? Can a single measurement site accurately represent aerosol properties in regions of complex terrain? SAIL-Net consisted of six measurement nodes spread across the ERW near Crested Butte, Colorado. The primary objective in site placement was to select locations that captured the vertical variation in aerosol properties while also spanning the domain of the SAIL campaign. The elevation of the sites ranged from roughly 2750 m along the valley floor of the ERW to approximately 3500 m near the top of Crested Butte Mountain, which is one of the taller peaks in the ERW. The farthest distance between sites was 14 km, while the closest two sites were approximately 1 km apart. Two of the sites were collocated with the ARM SAIL sites; our instruments sat on top of one of the trailers at AOS and another one of our sites was located in a meadow just above AMF2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

225 Ac-MACROPATATE: A Novel α-Particle Peptide Receptor Radionuclide Therapy for Neuroendocrine Tumors

Neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) express somatostatin receptors (SSTRs) 2 and 5. Modified variants of somatostatin, the cognate ligand for SSTR2 and SSTR5, are used in treatment for metastatic and locoregional disease. Peptide receptor radionuclide therapy with 177 Lu-DOTATATE (DOTA-octreotate), a β-particle–emitting somatostatin derivative, has demonstrated survival benefit in patients with SSTR-positive NETs. Despite excellent results, a subset of patients has tumors that are resistant to treatment, and alternative agents are needed. Targeted α-particle therapy has been shown to kill tumors that are resistant to targeted β-particle therapy, suggesting that targeted α-particle therapy may offer a promising treatment option for patients with 177 Lu-DOTATATE–resistant disease. Although DOTATATE can chelate the clinically relevant α-particle–emitting radionuclide 225 Ac, the labeling reaction requires high temperatures, and the resulting radioconjugate has suboptimal stability. Methods: We designed and synthesized MACROPATATE (MACROPA-octreotate), a novel radioconjugate capable of chelating 225 Ac at room temperature, and assessed its in vitro and in vivo performance. Results: MACROPATATE demonstrated comparable affinity to DOTATATE (dissociation constant, 21 nM) in U2-OS-SSTR2, a SSTR2-positive transfected cell line. 225 Ac-MACROPATATE demonstrated superior serum stability at 37°C over time compared with 225 Ac-DOTATATE. Biodistribution studies demonstrated higher tumor uptake of 225 Ac-MACROPATATE than of 225 Ac-DOTATATE in mice engrafted with subcutaneous H69 NETs. Therapy studies showed that 225 Ac-MACROPATATE exhibits significant antitumor and survival benefit compared with saline control in mice engrafted with SSTR-positive tumors. However, the increased accumulation of 225 Ac-MACROPATATE in liver and kidneys and subsequent toxicity to these organs decreased its therapeutic index compared with 225 Ac-DOTATATE. Conclusion: 225 Ac-MACROPATATE and 225 Ac-DOTATATE exhibit favorable therapeutic efficacy in animal models. Because of elevated liver and kidney accumulation and lower administered activity for dose-limiting toxicity of 225 Ac-MACROPATATE, 225 Ac-DOTATATE was deemed the superior agent for targeted α-particle peptide receptor radionuclide therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data augmentation and multimodal learning for predicting drug response in patient-derived xenografts from gene expressions and histology images

Patient-derived xenografts (PDXs) are an appealing platform for preclinical drug studies. A primary challenge in modeling drug response prediction (DRP) with PDXs and neural networks (NNs) is the limited number of drug response samples. We investigate multimodal neural network (MM-Net) and data augmentation for DRP in PDXs. The MM-Net learns to predict response using drug descriptors, gene expressions (GE), and histology whole-slide images (WSIs). We explore whether combining WSIs with GE improves predictions as compared with models that use GE alone. We propose two data augmentation methods which allow us training multimodal and unimodal NNs without changing architectures with a single larger dataset: 1) combine single-drug and drug-pair treatments by homogenizing drug representations, and 2) augment drug-pairs which doubles the sample size of all drug-pair samples. Unimodal NNs which use GE are compared to assess the contribution of data augmentation. The NN that uses the original and the augmented drug-pair treatments as well as single-drug treatments outperforms NNs that ignore either the augmented drug-pairs or the single-drug treatments. In assessing the multimodal learning based on the MCC metric, MM-Net outperforms all the baselines. Our results show that data augmentation and integration of histology images with GE can improve prediction performance of drug response in PDXs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

PET and polyolefin plastics supply chains in Michigan: present and future systems analysis of environmental and socio-economic impacts

Many actions are underway at global, national, and local levels to increase plastics circularity. However, studies evaluating the environmental and socio-economic impacts of such a transition are lacking at regional levels in the United States. In this work, the existing polyethylene terephthalate and polyolefin plastics supply chains in Michigan were compared to a potential future (‘NextCycle’) scenario that looks at increasing Michigan’s overall recycling rate to 45%. Material flow analysis data was combined with environmental and socio-economic metrics to evaluate the sustainability of these supply chains for the modeled scenarios. Overall, the NextCycle scenario for these supply chains achieved a net 14% and 34% savings of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy impacts, when compared with their respective baseline values. Additionally, the NextCycle scenario showed a net gain in employment and wages, however, it showed a net loss of revenue generation outside of Michigan due to the avoided use of virgin resins in Michigan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Processing of Alnico Magnets by Additive Manufacturing

Permanent magnets without rare earth (RE) elements, such as alnico, will improve supply stability and potentially decrease permanent magnet cost, especially for traction drive motors and other increased temperature applications. Commercial alnico magnets with the highest energy product are produced by directional solidification (DS) to achieve a < 001 > columnar grain orientation followed by significant final machining, adding to the high cost. Additive manufacturing (AM) is an effective method to process near net-shape parts with minimal final machining of complex geometries. AM also, has potential for texture/grain orientation control and compositionally graded structures. This report describes fabrication of alnico magnets by AM using both laser engineered net shaping (LENS)/directed energy deposition (DED) and electron beam melting powder bed fusion (EBM/PBF). High pressure gas atomized (HPGA) pre-alloyed alnico powders, with high purity and sphericity, were built into cylindrical and rectangular samples, followed by magnetic annealing (MA) and a full heat treatment (FHT). The magnetic properties of these AM processed specimens were different from their cast and sintered counterparts of the same composition and show a great sensitivity to heat treatment. The AM process parameters used in this developmental study did not yet result in any preferred texture within the alnico AM builds. These findings demonstrate feasibility for near net-shape processing of alnico permanent magnets for use in next generation traction drive motors and other applications requiring increased operating temperatures and/or complex engineered part geometries, especially with further AM process development for texture control.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Double-Layer Kagome Metals Pt 3 Tl 2 and Pt 3 In 2

The connectivity and inherent frustration of the kagome lattice can produce interesting electronic structures and behaviors in compounds containing this structural motif. Here we report the properties of Pt 3 X 2 (X = In and Tl) that adopt a double-layer kagome net structure related to that of the topologically nontrivial high-temperature ferromagnet Fe 3 Sn 2 and the density wave hosting compound V 3 Sb 2 . We examined the structural and physical properties of single crystal Pt 3 Tl 2 and polycrystalline Pt 3 In 2 using X-ray and neutron diffraction, magnetic susceptibility, heat capacity, and electrical transport measurements, along with density functional theory calculations of the electronic structure. Our calculations show that Fermi levels lie in pseudogaps in the densities of states with several bands contributing to transport, and this is consistent with our Hall effect, magnetic susceptibility, and heat capacity measurements. Although electronic dispersions, characteristic of simple kagome nets with nearest-neighbor hopping, are not clearly seen, likely due to the extended nature of the Pt 5d states, we do observe moderately large and non-saturating magnetoresistance values and quantum oscillations in the magnetoresistance and magnetization associated with the kagome nets of Pt.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydrothermal but Not Mechanical Pretreatment of Wastewater Algae Enhanced Anaerobic Digestion Energy Balance due to Improved Biomass Disintegration and Methane Production Kinetics

This study used pilot-scale high-rate algae ponds to assess algal–bacteria biomass productivity and wastewater nutrient removal as well as the impact of mechanical and hydrothermal pretreatments on biomass disintegration, methane production kinetics, and anaerobic digestion (AD) energy balance. Mechanical pretreatment had a minor effect on biomass disintegration and methane production. By contrast, hydrothermal pretreatment significantly reduced particle size and increased the solubilized organic matter content by 3.5 times. The methane yield and production rate increased by 20–55% and 20–85%, respectively, with the highest values achieved after pretreatment at 121 °C for 60 min. While the 1st-order and pseudo-1st-order reaction equation models fitted methane production from untreated biomass best (R2 > 0.993), the modified Gompertz sigmoidal-type model provided a superior fit for hydrothermally pretreated algae (R2 ≥ 0.99). The AD energy balance revealed that hydrothermal pretreatment improved the total energy output by 25–40%, with the highest values for volume-specific and mass-specific total energy outputs reaching 0.23 kW per digester m3 and 2.3 MW per ton of biomass volatile solids. Additionally, net energy recovery (energy output per biomass HHV) increased from 20% for untreated algae to 32–34% for hydrothermally pretreated algae, resulting in net energy ratio and net energy efficiency of 2.14 and 68%, respectively.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lithium Metal Battery Quality Control via Transformer–CNN Segmentation

Lithium metal battery (LMB) has the potential to be the next-generation battery system because of its high theoretical energy density. However, defects known as dendrites are formed by heterogeneous lithium (Li) plating, which hinders the development and utilization of LMBs. Non-destructive techniques to observe the dendrite morphology often use X-ray computed tomography (XCT) to provide cross-sectional views. To retrieve three-dimensional structures inside a battery, image segmentation becomes essential to quantitatively analyze XCT images. This work proposes a new semantic segmentation approach using a transformer-based neural network called TransforCNN that is capable of segmenting out dendrites from XCT data. In addition, we compare the performance of the proposed TransforCNN with three other algorithms, U-Net, Y-Net, and E-Net, consisting of an ensemble network model for XCT analysis. Our results show the advantages of using TransforCNN when evaluating over-segmentation metrics, such as mean intersection over union (mIoU) and mean Dice similarity coefficient (mDSC), as well as through several qualitatively comparative visualizations.

Quenum, Jerome (ORCID:0000000271265853)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Atmospheric Inverse Modelling of Methane Budgets with Copernicus Land Water and Wetness Data to Detect Land Use-Related Emissions

Climate change mitigation requires countries to report their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks, including those from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). In Finland, the LULUCF sector plays a crucial role in achieving net-zero GHG emissions, as the sector is expected to be a net sink. However, accurate estimates of LULUCF-related GHG emissions, such as methane (CH 4 ), remain challenging. We estimated LULUCF-related CH 4 emissions in Finland in 2013–2020 by combining national land cover and remote-sensed surface wetness data with CH 4 emissions estimated by an inversion model. According to our inversion model, most of Finland’s CH 4 emissions were attributed to natural sources such as open pristine peatlands. However, our research indicated that forests with thin tree cover surrounding open peatlands may also be a significant source of CH 4 . Unlike open pristine peatlands and pristine peatlands with thin tree cover, surrounding transient forests are included in the Finnish GHG inventory if they meet the criteria used for forest land. The current Finnish national GHG inventory may therefore underestimate CH 4 emissions from forested organic soils surrounding open peatlands, although more precise methods and data are needed to verify this. Given the potential impact on net GHG emissions, CH 4 emissions from transitional forests on organic soils should be further investigated. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential of combining atmospheric inversion modelling of GHGs with diverse data sources and highlight the need for methods to more easily combine atmospheric inversions with national GHG inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Resilience in Lane Detection Methods: Infrastructure-Based Sensors and Traditional Approaches for Autonomous Vehicles

Traditional autonomous vehicle perception subsystems that use onboard sensors have the drawbacks of high computational load and data duplication. Infrastructure-based sensors, which can provide high quality information without the computational burden and data duplication, are an alternative to traditional autonomous vehicle perception subsystems. However, these technologies are still in the early stages of development and have not been extensively evaluated for lane detection system performance. Therefore, there is a lack of quantitative data on their performance relative to traditional perception methods, especially during hazardous scenarios, such as lane line occlusion, sensor failure, and environmental obstructions. We address this need by evaluating the influence of hazards on the resilience of three different lane detection methods in simulation: (1) traditional camera detection using a U-Net algorithm, (2) radar detections using infrastructure-based radar retro-reflectors (RRs), and (3) direct communication of lane line information using chip-enabled raised pavement markers (CERPMs). The performance of each of these methods is assessed using resilience engineering metrics by simulating the individual methods for each sensor technology’s response to related hazards in the CARLA simulator. Using simulation techniques to replicate these methods and hazards acquires extensive datasets without lengthy time investments. Specifically, the resilience triangle was used to quantitatively measure the resilience of the lane detection system to obtain unique insights into each of the three lane detection methods; notably the infrastructure-based CERPMs and RRs had high resistance to hazards and were not as easily affected as the vision-based U-Net. However, while U-Net was able to recover the fastest from the disruption as compared to the other two methods, it also had the most performance loss. Overall, this study demonstrates that while infrastructure-based lane keeping technologies are still in early development, they have great potential as alternatives to traditional ones.

Patil, Pritesh↗
DOE OSTI2024

Real World Use Case Evaluation of Radar Retro-reflectors for Autonomous Vehicle Lane Detection Applications

Lane detection plays a critical role in autonomous vehicles for safe and reliable navigation. Lane detection is traditionally accomplished using a camera sensor and computer vision processing. The downside of this traditional technique is that it can be computationally intensive when high quality images at a fast frame rate are used and has reliability issues from occlusion such as, glare, shadows, active road construction, and more. This study addresses these issues by exploring alternative methods for lane detection in specific scenarios caused from road construction-induced lane shift and sun glare. Specifically, a U-Net, a convolutional network used for image segmentation, camera-based lane detection method is compared with a radar-based approach using a new type of sensor previously unused in the autonomous vehicle space: radar retro-reflectors. This evaluation is performed using ground truth data, obtained by measuring the lane positions and transforming them into pixel coordinates. The performance of each method is assessed using the statistical R2 score, indicating the correlation between the detected lane lines and the ground truth. The results show that the U-Net camera-based method exhibits limitations in accurately detecting and aligning the lane lines, particularly in challenging scenarios. However, the radar-based lane detection method demonstrates a strong correlation with the ground truth which implies that the use of this sensor may improve current reliability issues from conventional camera lane detection approach. Furthermore, the study highlights the limitations of the U-Net model for camera lane detection, especially in scenarios with sun glare. This study shows that infrastructure-based radar retro-reflectors can improve autonomous vehicle lane detection reliability. The integration of different sensor modalities and the development of advanced computer vision algorithms are crucial for improving the accuracy, reliability, and energy efficiency of lane detection systems. Addressing these challenges contributes to the advancement of autonomous vehicles and the realization of safer and more efficient transportation systems.

Brown, Nicolas E.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from: No‐till establishment improves the climate benefit of bioenergy crops on marginal grasslands

Expanding biofuel production is expected to accelerate the conversion of unmanaged marginal lands to meet biomass feedstock needs. Greenhouse gas production during conversion jeopardizes ensuing climate benefits, but most research to date has focused only on conversion to annual crops and only following tillage. Here we report the global warming impact of converting USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands to three types of bioenergy crops using no-till (NT) versus conventional tillage (CT). In three CRP fields planted to continuous corn, switchgrass, or restored prairie we established replicated NT and CT plots. For the two years following an initial soybean year in all fields, we found that, on average, NT conversion reduced nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions by 50% and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 20% compared to CT conversion. Differences were higher in year 1 than in year 2 in the continuous corn field, and in the two perennial systems the differences disappeared after year 1. In all fields net CO2 emissions (as measured by eddy covariance) were positive for the first two years following CT establishment, but following NT establishment net CO2 emissions were close to zero or negative, indicating net C sequestration. Overall, NT improved the global warming impact of biofuel crop establishment following CRP conversion by over 20-fold compared to CT (-6.01 Mg CO2e ha-1 yr-1 for NT vs. -0.25 Mg CO2e ha-1 yr-1 for CT, on average). We also found that IPCC estimates of N2O emissions (as measured by static chambers) greatly underestimated actual emissions for converted fields regardless of tillage. Policies should encourage adoption of NT for converting marginal grasslands to perennial bioenergy crops in order to reduce carbon debt and maximize climate benefits.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of dust on rainfall over the Red Sea coast based on WRF-Chem model simulations

Water is the single most important element of life. Rainfall plays an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of this precious natural resource, and it has a direct impact on agricultural production, daily life activities, and human health. One of the important elements that govern rainfall formation and distribution is atmospheric aerosol, which also affects the Earth's radiation balance and climate. Therefore, understanding how dust compositions and distributions affect the regional rainfall pattern is crucial, particularly in regions with high atmospheric dust loads such as the Middle East. Although aerosol and rainfall research has garnered increasing attention as both an independent and interdisciplinary topic in the last few decades, the details of various direct and indirect pathways by which dust affects rainfall are not yet fully understood. Here, we explored the effects of dust on rainfall formation and distribution as well as the physical mechanisms that govern these phenomena, using high-resolution WRF-Chem simulations (~1.5 km × 1.5 km) configured with an advanced double-moment cloud microphysics scheme coupled with a sectional eight-bin aerosol scheme. Our model-simulated results were realistic, as evaluated from multiple perspectives including vertical profiles of aerosol concentrations, aerosol size distributions, vertical profiles of air temperature, diurnal wind cycles, and spatio-temporal rainfall patterns. Rainfall over the Red Sea coast is mainly caused by warm rain processes, which are typically confined within a height of ~6 km over the Sarawat mountains and exhibit a strong diurnal cycle that peaks in the evening at approximately 18:00 local time under the influence of sea breezes. Numerical experiments indicated that dust could both suppress or enhance rainfall. The effect of dust on rainfall was calculated as total, indirect, and direct effects, based on 10-year August-average daily-accumulated rainfall over the study domain covering the eastern Red Sea coast. For extreme rainfall events (domain-average daily-accumulated rainfall of ≥ 1.33 mm), the net effect of dust on rainfall was positive or enhancement (6.05 %), with the indirect effect (4.54 %) and direct effect (1.51 %) both causing rainfall increase. At a 5 % significance level, the total and indirect effects were statistically significant whereas the direct effect was not. For normal rainfall events (domain-average daily-accumulated rainfall < 1.33 mm), the indirect effect enhanced rainfall (4.76 %) whereas the direct effect suppressed rainfall (-5.78 %), resulting in a negative net suppressing effect (-1.02 %), all of which were statistically significant. We investigated the possible physical mechanisms of the effects and found that the rainfall suppression by dust direct effects was mainly caused by the scattering of solar radiation by dust. The surface cooling induced by dust weakens the sea breeze circulation, which decreases the associated landward moisture transport, ultimately suppressing rainfall. For extreme rainfall events, dust causes net rainfall enhancement through indirect effects as the high dust concentration facilitates raindrops to grow when the water vapor is sufficiently available. Our results have broader scientific and environmental implications. Specifically, although dust is considered a problem from an air quality perspective, our results highlight the important role of dust on sea breeze circulation and associated rainfall over the Red Sea coastal regions. Our results also have implications for cloud seeding and water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging the signature of heterotrophic respiration on atmospheric CO 2 for model benchmarking

Spatial and temporal variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) reflect large-scale net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems. Soil heterotrophic respiration (HR) is one of the component fluxes that drive this net exchange, but, given observational limitations, it is difficult to quantify this flux or to evaluate global-scale model simulations thereof. Here, we show that atmospheric CO 2 can provide a useful constraint on large-scale patterns of soil heterotrophic respiration. We analyze three soil model configurations (CASA-CNP, MIMICS, and CORPSE) that simulate HR fluxes within a biogeochemical test bed that provides each model with identical net primary productivity (NPP) and climate forcings. We subsequently quantify the effects of variation in simulated terrestrial carbon fluxes (NPP and HR from the three soil test-bed models) on atmospheric CO 2 distributions using a three-dimensional atmospheric tracer transport model. Our results show that atmospheric CO 2 observations can be used to identify deficiencies in model simulations of the seasonal cycle and interannual variability in HR relative to NPP. In particular, the two models that explicitly simulated microbial processes (MIMICS and CORPSE) were more variable than observations at interannual timescales and showed a stronger-than-observed temperature sensitivity. Our results prompt future research directions to use atmospheric CO 2 , in combination with additional constraints on terrestrial productivity or soil carbon stocks, for evaluating HR fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗