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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39

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NASA NTRS2015

Method for Real-Time Model Based Structural Anomaly Detection

A system and methods for real-time model based vehicle structural anomaly detection are disclosed. A real-time measurement corresponding to a location on a vehicle structure during an operation of the vehicle is received, and the real-time measurement is compared to expected operation data for the location to provide a modeling error signal. A statistical significance of the modeling error signal to provide an error significance is calculated, and a persistence of the error significance is determined. A structural anomaly is indicated, if the persistence exceeds a persistence threshold value.

Smith, Timothy A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Seasonal Variations in Mercury's Dayside Calcium Exosphere

The Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer on the MESSENGER spacecraft has observed calcium emission in Mercury's exosphere on a near-daily basis since March 2011. During MESSENGER's primary and first extended missions (March 2011 - March 2013) the dayside calcium exosphere was measured over eight Mercury years. We have simulated these data with a Monte Carlo model of exospheric source processes to show that (a) there is a persistent source of energetic calcium located in the dawn equatorial region, (b) there is a seasonal dependence in the calcium source rate, and (c) there are no obvious year-to-year variations in the near-surface dayside calcium exosphere. Although the precise mechanism responsible for ejecting the calcium has not yet been determined, the most likely process is the dissociation of Ca-bearing molecules produced in micrometeoroid impact plumes to form energetic, escaping calcium atoms.

Exosphere↗

NASA NTRS2019

Application of AI in the NAS - the Rationale for AI-Enhanced Airspace Management

This paper extends on the initial findings of "Application of Artificial Intelligence in the National Airspace System: A Primer" (Stroup & Niewoehner: Herndon, VA; ICNS-2019), and looks at why the current technologies, enterprise architecture, and future program plans may not be enough to address persistent operational challenges. This paper further explores why emergent operational concepts, business models, and demand profiles may necessitate AI-enhanced Communications, Navigation and Communications (CNS) infrastructure to disrupt current operational impediments. European airspace, as well as the NAS, has similar challenges. Key challenges explored in this study include: quantifiable improvements to NAS capacity, efficiency, and resiliency; traffic flow management of diverse users; UTM-ATM airspace integration; equitable access to airspace; and airborne-ground interoperability of AI applications. Finally, we examine why trustworthiness and resiliency will be key mileposts on the regulatory pathway to AI certification.

Aviation↗

NASA NTRS1994

Simulated life cycles of persistent anticyclonic anomalies over the North Pacific: Role of synoptic-scale eddies

This study examines the role of synoptic-scale eddies during the development of persistent anticyclonic height anomalies over the central North Pacific in a general circulation model under perpetual January conditions. The General Circulation Model (GCM) replicates the basic characteristics of the evolution of the anomaly patterns found in observations. The life cycle is characterized by the rapid establishment of the major anomaly center and considerably longer maintenance and decay phases, which include the development of downstream anomaly centers. The simulation also shows a realistic evolution of synoptic-scale activity beginning with enhanced activity off the east coast of Asia prior to onset, followed by a northward shift of the Pacific storm track, which lasts throughout the maintenance phase. The initial enhancement of synoptic-scale eddy activity is associated with a large-scale cyclonic anomaly that developes over Siberia several days prior to the onset of the main anticyclonic anomaly over the central North Pacific. The observations, however, show considerable interdecadel variability in the details of the composite onset behavior; it is unclear whether this variability is real or whether it reflects differences in the data assimilation systems. The role of the time mean flow and synoptic-scale eddies in the development of the persistent Pacific anomalies is studied within the context of a kinetic energy budget in which the flow is decomposed into the time-mean, low-frequency (timescales longer than 10 days), and synoptic (timescales less than 6 days) components. The budget, which is carried out for the simulation at 500 mb, shows that the initial growth of the persistent anticyclonic anomalies is associated with barotropic conversions of energy, with approximately equal contributions coming from the mean flow and the synoptic-scale eddies. After onset the barotropic conversion from the mean flow dominates, whereas the decay phase is associated with baroclinic processes within the low-frequency flow.

Higgins, R. W.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A comparison of the power potential for surface- and seabed-deployed tidal turbines in the San Juan Archipelago, Salish Sea, WA

The San Juan archipelago lies along the axis of tidal movement between Straits of Juan de Fuca and Strait of Georgia in the Salish Sea. The amplitude of the tidal exchange produces significant tidal currents between the islands, as well as in Rosario and Haro Straits. These are of interest as a future source of electrical power generation, given the islands’ dependence on electricity supply by a subsea cable from the mainland. Here, we evaluate the tidal current energy potential in this region through a re-analysis of measurements collected by the National Ocean Service (NOS) and a high-resolution numerical model. Given the considerable variations in water depth and vertical velocity profiles across candidate tidal energy sites, we consider the trade-offs between tidal turbines deployed from a floating platform and those anchored to the seabed. Measurement re-analysis indicates several locations that could support tidal current power generation by MW-scale turbines with an acceptable balance between turbine size, rated power, and capacity factor. Even for relatively large (30 m) turbine diameters, surface-deployed turbines would be expected to produce up to 30 % more electricity than the same turbine deployed near the seabed due to vertical shear, with this difference increasing for smaller diameter turbines. A benchmark comparison at the measurement locations with the highest power generation potential shows relatively good model fidelity, though, even with relatively high resolution, time-average power density disagreements of ± 50 % persist throughout the water column. Nonetheless, the simulation identifies several locations with power generation potential more than twice as high as locations in the measurement re-analysis. These sites were either not surveyed by NOS or excluded due to data quality issues. Altogether, these results demonstrate the complimentary of models and measurements for tidal energy site assessment and suggest that tidal currents could be an important source of electricity generation in the San Juan archipelago.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2018

Calibrating Climate Model Ensembles for Assessing Extremes in a Changing Climate

Climate models serve as indispensable tools to investigate the effect of anthropogenic emissions on current and future climate, including extremes. However, as low-dimensional approximations of the climate system, they will always exhibit biases. Several attempts have been made to correct for biases as they affect extremes prediction, predominantly focused on correcting model-simulated distribution shapes. In this study, the effectiveness of a recently published quantile-based bias correction scheme, as well as a new subset selection method introduced here, are tested out-of-sample using model-as-truth experiments. Results show that biases in the shape of distributions tend to persist through time, and therefore, correcting for shape bias is useful for past and future statements characterizing the probability of extremes. However, for statements characterized by a ratio of the probabilities of extremes between two periods, we find that correcting for shape bias often provides no skill improvement due to the dominating effect of bias in the long-term trend. Using a toy model experiment, we examine the relative importance of the shape of the distribution versus its position in response to long-term changes in radiative forcing. It confirms that the relative position of the two distributions, based on the trend, is at least as important as the shape. We encourage the community to consider all model biases relevant to their metric of interest when using a bias correction procedure and to construct out-of-sample tests that mirror the intended application.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Residual Study: Testing Jupiter Atmosphere Models Against Juno MWR Observations

The Juno spacecraft provides unique close-up views of Jupiter underneath the synchrotron radiation belts while circling Jupiter in its 53-day orbits. The microwave radiometer (MWR) onboard measures Jupiter thermal radiation at wavelengths between 1.37 and 50 cm, penetrating the atmosphere to a pressure of a few hundred bars and greater. The mission provides the first measurements of Jupiter's deep atmosphere, down to ~250 bars in pressure, constraining the vertical distributions of its kinetic temperature and constituents. As a result, vertical structure models of Jupiter's atmosphere may now be tested by comparison with MWR data. Taking into account the MWR beam patterns and observation geometries, we test several published Jupiter atmospheric models against MWR data. Our residual analysis confirms Li et al.'s (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073159) result that ammonia depletion persists down to 50–60 bars where ground-based Very Large Array was not able to observe. We also present an extension of the study that iteratively improves the input model and generates Jupiter brightness temperature maps which best match the MWR data. A feature of Juno's north-to-south scanning approach is that latitudinal structure is more easily obtained than longitudinal, and the creation of optimum two-dimensional maps is addressed in this approach.

Zhimeng Zhang↗

NASA NTRS1987

Statistics and dynamics of persistent anomalies

Persistent anomalies with recurrent spatial patterns play an important role in the atmosphere's low-frequency variability. A connection between statistical and dynamical methods of description and prediction of persistent anomalies is established by computing and analyzing the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in a simple deterministic model, on the one hand, and in Southern Hemisphere geopotential heights, on the other. The dynamical model is governed by the fully nonlinear, equivalent-barotropic vorticity equation on the sphere, with simplified forcing, dissipation and topography. The Southern Hemisphere data consist in gridded daily maps of 500 mb heights from June 1972 to July 1983. Two types of persistent anomalies appear in this time series, both having a strong wavenumber-three component; they differ by the value of the constant phase of this wave and by the strength of the wavenumber-one component. The first two EOFs bear a striking resemblance to these two patterns. It is concluded that the dynamical interpretation of EOFs is their pointing from the time mean to the most populated regions of the system's phase space. Pursuing this interpretation, a Markov-chain formulation of transitions from one persistent anomaly regime to another is introduced, and the implications for long-range forecasting are discussed.

Mo, Kingtse C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Manuscript model outputs, model source code, and figure scripts: The role of geomorphology in mediating biomass allocation impacts on salt-marsh resilience and carbon accumulation

This data package provides model source code (C++), model outputs, and figure generation scripts (R) needed to reproduce the following manuscript: Bruns, Nicholas E., Genevieve L. Noyce, and Matthew L. Kirwan. "The Role of Geomorphology in Mediating Biomass Allocation Impacts on Salt-Marsh Resilience and Carbon Accumulation." Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 327 (December 2025): 109549. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109549. This manuscript investigates how geomorphology mediates the impact of biomass allocation shifts on salt marsh persistence and carbon (C) sequestration under sea level rise. We use a 1-D soil-column model (Kirwan and Mudd 2012) to perform experiments across a range of static root:shoot ratios (RSR = 1-4) spanning observed values. The model explicitly simulates interactions between tidal inundation, productivity, inorganic sediment deposition, and organic matter accumulation. Experiments determine whether geomorphic feedbacks amplify, dampen, or leave unchanged the ecosystem response to biomass allocation shifts. A first experiment uses constant sea level rise (2.5 mm/yr) to examine equilibrium dynamics and their influence on carbon accumulation rates across different suspended sediment concentrations (SSC). A second set of experiments calculates threshold sea level rise rates for marsh drowning across RSR and SSC combinations. Final experiments apply accelerating sea level rise scenarios (2000-2200) derived from NOAA projections (Sweet et al. 2022) to generate an envelope of expected responses, quantifying the importance of biomass allocation shifts on marsh carbon accumulation and persistence. All experiments are repeated across SSC ranging from 5-50 mg/L to investigate how these interactions vary in micro-tidal marshes with different sediment supplies. Package contents: * README.txt with detailed description of package contents and instructions for reproducing manuscript figures and model outputs * R scripts for generating all manuscript figures * C++ baseline model code from Kirwan and Mudd (2012) * C++ source code for 4 experimental model variants used in the manuscript, extending above baseline code * Model input files (.csv, .txt) including sea level rise scenarios * Model output files (.txt) used in manuscript analyses Temporal coverage: Model simulations span years 1900-2200, with accelerating sea level rise scenarios for 2000-2200. Key variables: Root:shoot ratio, suspended sediment concentration, carbon accumulation rate, vertical accretion rate, marsh elevation, inundation depth, threshold sea level rise rate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Constraining Parameters in Pulsar Models of Repeating FRB 121102 with High-energy Follow-up Observations

Recently, a precise (sub-arcsecond) localization of the repeating fast radio burst (FRB) 121102 led to the discovery of persistent radio and optical counterparts, the identification of a host dwarf galaxy at a redshift of z = 0.193, and several campaigns of searches for higher-frequency counterparts, which gave only upper limits on the emission flux. Although the origin of FRBs remains unknown, most of the existing theoretical models are associated with pulsars, or more specifically, magnetars. In this paper, we explore persistent high-energy emission from a rapidly rotating highly magnetized pulsar associated with FRB 121102 if internal gradual magnetic dissipation occurs in the pulsar wind. We find that the efficiency of converting the spin-down luminosity to the high-energy (e.g., X-ray) luminosity is generally much smaller than unity, even for a millisecond magnetar. This provides an explanation for the non-detection of high-energy counterparts to FRB 121102. We further constrain the spin period and surface magnetic field strength of the pulsar with the current high-energy observations. In addition, we compare our results with the constraints given by the other methods in previous works and expect to apply our new method to some other open issues in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Persistent and transient cost efficiency—an application to the Swiss hydropower sector

Electricity prices on the European market have decreased significantly over the past few years, resulting in a deterioration of Swiss hydropower firms’ competitiveness and profitability. One option to improve the sector’s competitiveness is to increase cost efficiency. The goal of this study is to quantify the level of persistent and transient cost efficiency of individual firms by applying the generalized true random effects (GTRE) model introduced by Colombi et al. (Journal of Productivity Analysis 42(2): 123–136, 2014) and Filippini and Greene (Journal of Productivity Analysis 45(2): 187–196, 2016). Applying this newly developed GTRE model to a total cost function, the level of cost efficiency of 65 Swiss hydropower firms is analyzed for the period between 2000 and 2013. A true random effects specification is estimated as a benchmark for the transient level of cost efficiency. The results show the presence of both transient as well as persistent cost inefficiencies. The GTREM predicts the aggregate level of cost inefficiency to amount to 21.8% (8.0% transient, 13.8% persistent) on average between 2000 and 2013. These two components differ in interpretation and implication. From an individual firm’s perspective, the two types of cost inefficiencies might require a firm’s management to respond with different improvement strategies. The existing level of persistent inefficiency could prevent the hydropower firms from adjusting their production processes to new market environments. From a regulatory point of view, the results of this study could be used in the scope and determination of the amount of financial support given to struggling firms.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Non-equilibrium pathways to emergent polar supertextures

Ultrafast stimuli can stabilize metastable states of matter inaccessible by equilibrium means. Establishing the spatiotemporal link between ultrafast excitation and metastability is crucial to understand these phenomena. Here, in this work, we utilize single-shot optical pump–X-ray probe measurements to capture snapshots of the emergence of a persistent polar vortex supercrystal in a heterostructure that hosts a fine balance between built-in electrostatic and elastic frustrations by design. By perturbing this balance with photoinduced charges, an initially heterogeneous mixture of polar phase disorders within a few picoseconds, leading to a state composed of disordered ferroelectric and suppressed vortex orders. On the picosecond–nanosecond timescales, transient labyrinthine fluctuations develop, accompanied by the recovery of the vortex order. On longer timescales, these fluctuations are progressively quenched by dynamical strain modulations, which drive the collective emergence of a single vortex supercrystal phase. Our results, corroborated by dynamical phase-field modelling, reveal non-equilibrium pathways following the ultrafast excitation of designer systems to persistent metastability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Land Model Calibration on Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry and wet land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through calibration of the Noah land surface model using the new optimization and uncertainty estimation subsystem in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE). The impact of the calibration on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) the simulated heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations is then assessed. Changes in ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling are evaluated along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Results indicate that the offline calibration leads to systematic improvements in land-PBL fluxes and near-surface temperature and humidity, and in the process provide guidance on the questions of what, how, and when to calibrate land surface models for coupled model prediction.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic toolkit to evaluate environmental exposures: Applications of the dioxin model to study real life exposures

Chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (CDDs) are a series of mono- to octa-chlorinated homologous chemicals commonly referred to as polychlorinated dioxins. One of the most potent, well-known, and persistent member of this family is 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). As part of translational research to make computerized models accessible to health risk assessors, we present a Berkeley Madonna recoded version of the human physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the recent dioxin assessment. This model incorporates CYP1A2 induction, which is an important metabolic vector that drives dioxin distribution in the human body, and it uses a variable elimination half-life that is body burden dependent. To evaluate the model accuracy, the recoded model predictions were compared with those of the original published model. The simulations performed with the recoded model matched well with those of the original model. The recoded model was then applied to available data sets of real life exposure studies. The recoded model can describe acute and chronic exposures and can be useful for interpreting human biomonitoring data as part of an overall dioxin and/or dioxin-like compounds risk assessment. - Highlights: • The best available dioxin PBPK model for interpreting human biomonitoring data is presented. • The original PBPK model was recoded from acslX to the Berkeley Madonna (BM) platform. • Comparisons were made of the accuracy of the recoded model with the original model. • The model is a useful addition to the ATSDR's BM based PBPK toolkit that supports risk assessors. • The application of the model to real-life exposure data sets is illustrated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparing multi-source urban flood indicators: satellite, simulation, and citizen-reported data

Urban flooding arises from complex mechanisms, making it challenging to capture accurately with a single detection method. This study evaluates three complementary approaches to detect flooding across three Chicago neighborhoods: (i) Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR), offering weather-independent, high-resolution (10 m) imagery of surface inundation; (ii) the storm water management model (SWMM), simulating combined sewer overflow and drainage performance; and (iii) citizen-generated 311 service requests, capturing observed flooding impacts. By analyzing six storms ranging from severe to mild, we examine how each source uniquely contributes to identifying urban flood events. SAR imagery effectively identifies standing water but can miss brief flooding due to satellite revisit constraints. SWMM provides detailed insights into system-wide drainage behavior yet may underestimate localized street-level flooding. Meanwhile, 311 calls reflect real-world flooding impacts but are vulnerable to underreporting. Statistical overlap analysis highlights chronic flood hotspots repeatedly identified across multiple detection methods, indicating persistent infrastructure and topographic vulnerabilities. Temporal analysis further reveals that while SWMM flooding aligns closely with rainfall peaks, 311 calls typically precede or persist beyond these peaks. Our findings emphasize the value of using satellite observations, hydrological modeling, and resident-reported data in a complementary manner to better interpret patterns in flood timing, severity, and spatial distribution—providing insights that can inform targeted infrastructure improvements and contribute to urban flood resilience planning.

311↗

DOE OSTI2019

Critical operating stress of persistent slip bands in Cu

This work elucidates the dependence of operating stress of persistent slip bands (PSB) on the channel width and wall dislocation density. Using Cu as a model system and molecular dynamics as the main investigative tool, a new length scale effect, namely the wall dislocation spacing, is provided to enhance theoretical understanding of PSBs. It is discovered that the operation of PSB is a thermally activated event in which operating stress is inversely related to the wall dislocation spacing, strain rate and temperature. Leveraging the existing framework of confined layer slip in nanoscale metallic multilayers and classical nucleation theory, a mathematical model describing the rate- and temperature- dependent PSB operating stress is here proposed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Vision for Coupling Operation of US Fusion Facilities with HPC Systems and the Implications for Workflows and Data Management

The operation of large US Department of Energy (DOE) research facilities, like the DIII-D National Fusion Facility, results in the collection of complex multi-dimensional scientific datasets, both experimental and model-generated. In the future, it is envisioned that integrated data analysis coupled with large-scale high performance computing (HPC) simulations will be used to improve experimental planning and operation. Practically, massive data sets from these simulations provide the physics basis for generation of both reduced semi-analytic and machine-learning-based models. Storage of both HPC simulation datasets (generated from US DOE leadership computing facilities) and experimental datasets presents significant challenges. In this paper, we present a vision for a DOE-wide data management workflow that integrates US DOE fusion facilities with leadership computing facilities. Data persistence and long-term availability beyond the length of allocated projects is essential, particularly for verification and recalibration of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) models. Because these data sets are often generated and shared among hundreds of users across multiple leadership computing facility centers, they would benefit from cross-platform accessibility, persistent identifiers (e.g. DOI, or digital object identifier), and provenance tracking. Here, the ability to handle different data access patterns suggests that a combination of low cost, high latency (e.g. for storing ML training sets) and high cost, low latency systems (e.g. for real-time, integrated machine control feedback) may be needed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1983

Continental crustal composition and lower crustal models

The composition of the upper crust is well established as being close to that of granodiorite. The upper crustal composition is reflected in the uniform REE abundances in shales which represent an homogenization of the various REE patterns. This composition can only persist to depths of 10-15 km, for heat flow and geochemical balance reasons. The composition of the total crust is model dependent. One constraint is that it should be capable of generating the upper granodioritic (S.L.) crust by partial melting within the crust. This composition is based on the andesite model, which assumes that the total crust has grown by accretion of island arc material. A representation of the growth rate of the continental crust is shown. The composition of the lower crust, which comprises 60-80% of the continental crust, remains a major unknown factor for models of terrestrial crustal evolution. Two approaches are used to model the lower crust.

Taylor, S. R.↗