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Duke Energy’s Integrated System and Operations Planning: A comparative analysis of integrated planning practices

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory provided technical assistance to the South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff to examine how Duke Energy’s Integrated System Operations Planning (ISOP) framework interacts with other electricity planning processes in South Carolina. While this report was prepared for the South Carolina ORS, the information contained herein may be useful to audiences in other states who are interested in IDP, including public utility commissions, state energy offices, other state agencies, utilities, and stakeholders. The report discusses how to access the ISOP process diagram created for the report, provides observations about Duke Energy’s ISOP from our interviews and review of publicly available materials; and assesses ISOP, based on best practices for integrated distribution planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Coordinated Modeling of Electric Grid and Natural Gas Network Operations

Presentation based upon full report of a Colorado case study and coordination framework, which is available at https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy20osti/77096.pdf. JISEA analysts Brian Sergi, Omar Guerra, and Bri-Mathias Hodge will present on recent JISEA work on coordination between the natural gas and electricity sectors. Power and gas are becoming increasingly interdependent but weren't designed to function together. How does greater coordination impact system operations with different levels of solar and wind penetrations? This free JISEA presentation will take place in a Webinar on Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 12 p.m.: Learn how greater coordination between the natural gas and electricity sectors impacts system operations with different levels of solar and wind penetrations. Presentation information includes: Historical and projected data for natural gas consumption and power generation in the United States as demonstrated by 2014 East Coast Polar Vortex, 2021 Texas Winter Storm Uri. Showing coupling points, FERC identified need for better coordination, different levels of coordination (decision making and optimization control), coordination framework. Case study on Colorado Front Range, ramping requirements and gas nominations, real-time dispatch (June and December scenarios), results of analysis of impacts of coordination on unserved load. Total real-time gas offtakes by node, impacts on unserved gas, effect on CO2 emissions. Discussions on clusions drawn from Colorado Case study expanded co-simulation via HELICS, objectives of the HELICS+ natural gas use case, modeling of hydrogen blending, techno economic assessment of blending, and blending impacts on energy content and pressure.

analysis↗

Potential State Regulatory Pathways to Facilitate Low-Carbon Fuels

States and the federal government are increasingly engaged in the challenges around decarbonizing the electric grid. In particular, regulators, consumers, stakeholders, and utilities recognize the need to carefully consider the role natural gas will play in a decarbonized future. A variety of technology and policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas use are available, including energy efficiency programs, demand reduction tools, strategic electrification, and strategies to reduce emissions from natural gas production, transportation, and consumption. Low-carbon fuels – mainly renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean hydrogen – are being considered an important component of decarbonization goals. RNG and hydrogen may be able to meaningfully reduce emissions from processes independent of geologic natural gas, displacing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Although RNG and hydrogen are not cost-competitive today with geologic natural gas and are smaller in scale and potential than other decarbonization options, they can be explored as potential critical tools to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify or shift off of natural gas entirely, such as air travel, industrial processes, maritime transport, long-distance trucking, space heating on cold days, and railroads (Nadel, 2022). The role of this report is to provide informational context for state utility regulators to understand the impacts of and challenges associated with broader integration of low-carbon fuels, followed by examples of state regulatory actions taken to date to facilitate the development of low-carbon fuels. Setting clear guidance to calculate the environmental benefits of low-carbon fuels and continuing federal and state investments in research and development to reduce costs relative to fossil fuels will be important steps to take to signal the desire to grow the market for these fuels. State public utility commissions may play a key role in setting regulatory frameworks for low-carbon fuels and ensuring that ratepayer funds, if utilized, are done so to further the public interest. This report is intended to summarize decisions that states have made to date on low-carbon fuels. In the spirit of understanding the current market and sharing information, this report provides success stories, and lessons learned across states as regulators implement varying strategies to achieve decarbonization objectives while maintaining their focus on affordability, safety, and reliability of the energy system. The report begins with an introduction of the role of natural gas in the U.S. economy (Section I) and background information on natural gas use, decarbonization, and low-carbon fuels (Section II). Next, the report describes the current market by discussing the scale of current production, emissions intensity, resource potential, and costs of low-carbon fuels compared to geologic natural gas (Section III). Following these sections, the report describes four strategies states have employed to facilitate low-carbon fuels: opening exploratory dockets, approving voluntary tariffs for customers, approving interconnection tariffs for producers, and considering portfolio-wide procurement targets (Section IV). This section lists states that have taken actions in each category, citing utility filings, commission decisions, stakeholder comments, and other relevant sources. Finally, the report concludes with suggested questions regulators may wish to consider regarding low-carbon fuels, in the interest of preparing to make decisions in the future (Section V). These questions include: Are there existing regulatory or technical barriers to voluntary purchases of low-carbon fuels? Can customers work with utilities to procure low-carbon fuels; are producers able to interconnect projects without significant barriers to entry? Should the infrastructure and/or commodity costs of low-carbon fuels be socialized among all ratepayers, or borne solely by the large commercial and industrial (C&I) customers currently driving the market? Should regulated natural gas and/or electric utilities own and operate low-carbon fuel production? How should regulators consider the unique decarbonization potential of low-carbon fuels, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors, in decision-making? Is additional direction or clarity from state policymakers needed? What no-regrets approaches can help facilitate both near-term RNG development and long-term development of hydrogen and other zero-carbon fuels? We collectively wish to express our gratitude to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, for supporting this report and other technical assistance resources for state regulators on natural gas topics. State regulators operate under a variety of policy environments, and states have vastly different types of energy resources, infrastructure, and customers. While there is no optimal regulatory, policy, or technological solution that will be successful in every state, state regulators can benefit by exchanging lessons learned with their peers across the country. We look forward to continued engagement with our fellow commissioners, commission staff, NARUC, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other stakeholders to develop sound regulation in the public interest.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Demand Response Under Stochastic, Price-Dependent User Behavior

This letter focuses on price-based demand response (DR) implemented through dynamic adjustments of electricity prices. It extends existing DR models to a stochastic framework in which customer response is represented by price-dependent random variables, leveraging models and tools from the theory of stochastic optimization with decision-dependent distributions. The inherent epistemic uncertainty in the customers' responses renders open-loop, model-based DR strategies impractical. We propose a stochastic, feedback-based pricing strategy to compensate for estimation errors and uncertainty in customer response, establish theoretical results demonstrating the stability and near-optimality of the proposed approach, and validate its effectiveness through numerical simulations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated Resource Supply-Demand-Routing Model for the COVID-19 Crisis

As part of the Department of Energy response to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic of 2020, a modeling effort was sponsored by the DOE Office of Science. Through this effort, an integrated planning framework was developed whose capabilities were demonstrated with the combination of a treatment resource demand model and an optimization model for routing supplies. This report documents this framework and models, and an application involving ventilator demands and supplies in the continental United States. The goal of this application is to test the feasibility of implementing nationwide ventilator sharing in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Multiple scenarios were run using different combinations of forecasted and observed patient streams, and it is demonstrated that using a "worst-case forecast for planning may be preferable to best mitigate supply-demand risks in an uncertain future. There is also a brief discussion of model uncertainty and its implications for the results.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Status Report on the INL IES Plug-and-Play Framework

This report discusses the advancements and status of the flexible plug-and-play framework development currently ongoing that aims to integrate Modelica/Dymola with the Risk Analysis and Virtual ENvironment (RAVEN) software in terms of both Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI)/Functional Mock-Up Unit (FMU) construction and usage, which aims to ease the sharing and simulation of complex dynamic models. This report discusses the FMI/FMU development advancements, overall focusing on the deployment of methodologies for RAVEN to export and use FMI/FMU of both Python-based models and advanced AI-constructed algorithms.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Uruguay's Action Plan and Experience for Power Sector Decarbonization

A collaborative report from the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM), Lessons Learned for Rapid Decarbonization of Power Sectors, was delivered to energy ministers and presented at the 13th CEM (CEM13) in the United States in September 2022. In light of these lessons learned and discussed at CEM13, several jurisdictions signaled intent to develop Action Plans for power sector decarbonization. The first cohort of Action Plans was released at CEM14 in India in July 2023. The Uruguay Ministry of Industry, Energy and Mining is pleased to release this Action Plan as a contribution to the second cohort of Action Plans released at CEM15 in Brazil in October 2024. The Action Plans, supported by the 21st Century Power Partnership, and other CEM workstreams via direct technical assistance and capacity building, are intended to focus on select implementation actions given each country's existing power sector goals and activities, and are an opportunity for countries to display leadership in power sector decarbonization. The Action Plans are organized in a framework for planning, building, and operating, as well as stakeholder engagement where appropriate based on country priorities. They complement, but are differentiated from, other international power sector initiatives such as the Breakthrough Agenda (whose broad purpose is to raise collective ambition) and the Global Power System Transformation Consortium (whose goals are to convene power system operators to accelerate research innovations and foster peer learning). These Action Plans are voluntary, developed by each country individually, not comprehensive of all activities within the jurisdiction, and are living documents that are subject to change.

21st Century Power Partnership↗

Mexico Clean Energy Report

This report provides an assessment of Mexico's clean energy resource potential and pathways for rapidly deploying renewable energy technologies to enable Mexico to reach its goal of 35% renewable energy by 2024 within the current legal and regulatory framework. An appendix to the report includes the results of the 2024 Renewable Energy Integration Study, and technology chapters on wind, solar, geothermal, hydropower, transport electrification, and green hydrogen, detailing current state, resource potential, and deployment opportunities and recommendations. Additional sections include transmission, a section on the challenges and solutions for the integration of variable generation resources, and a summary of benefits.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Acquire and Test IDAES Framework Components

The cooperation under the Grid Modernization Initiative and the Applied Energy Tri-Laboratory umbrellas requires mutual understanding of capabilities and a common effort to identify gaps existing in the available computational modeling and analysis tools. In this work, we report acquisition and testing of the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) framework, particularly including both electric power systems production cost model simulator Prescient as well as system optimization IDAES itself. Further, we consider the methods in which developments in Prescient and IDAES for grid-energy simulation and optimization may be included in the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) ecosystem that has been under collaborative development by Idaho National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We propose two integration methods to introduce Prescient and IDAES into existing FORCE automated workflows. One integration involves using Prescient as a market reduced-order model and IDAES models similar to how existing Modelica models are used. The other integration involves wrapping the Prescient-IDAES dispatch optimization process with the stochastic capacity optimization workflow in FORCE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An Integrated Framework for Effective Management of Delivery Risk in Electricity Markets: From Batteries to Insurance and Beyond

Net load imbalances due to imperfect day-ahead forecasts can cause variability in real-time electricity prices and higher system operations costs. We propose a novel market product called Flexibility Options that allow participants to hedge uncertainty by buying flexibility from flexible resources. Simulations show that flexibility options can reduce total system operating costs by up to 15% and can reduce variability in market participant revenues. To better quantify the flexibility that DER aggregators can provide, we develop DER flexibility scores that account for asset flexibility and uncertainty from occupant behavior and weather. Preliminary results show that realistic sets of DERs have significant variability in flexibility and uncertainty metrics.

delivery risk↗

Interdependence in active mobility adoption: Joint modeling and motivational spillover in walking, cycling and bike-sharing

Active mobility offers an array of physical, emotional, and social well-being benefits. However, with the proliferation of the sharing economy, new nonmotorized means of transport are entering the fold, complementing some existing mobility options while competing with others. The purpose of this research study is to investigate the adoption of three active travel modes—namely walking, cycling, and bikesharing—in a joint modeling framework. Here, the analysis is based on an adaptation of the stages of change framework, which originates from the health behavior sciences. Multivariate ordered probit modeling drawing on U.S. survey data provides well-needed insights into individuals’ preparedness to adopt multiple active modes as a function of personal, neighborhood, and psychosocial factors. The research suggests three important findings. (1) The joint model structure confirms interdependence among different active mobility choices. The strongest complementarity is found for walking and cycling adoption. (2) Each mode has a distinctive adoption path with either three or four separate stages. We discuss the implications of derived stage-thresholds and plot adoption contours for selected scenarios. (3) Psychological and neighborhood variables generate more coupling among active modes than individual and household factors. Specifically, identifying strongly with active mobility aspirations, experiences with multimodal travel, possessing better navigational skills, along with supportive local community norms are the factors that appear to drive the joint adoption decisions. This study contributes to the understanding of how decisions within the same functional domain are related and help to design policies that promote active mobility by identifying positive spillovers and joint determinants.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Pulsar’s Application in Energy Systems: Review of Current Status, Challenges, and Opportunities

To accelerate progress toward the realization of advanced energy systems, this review explores the potential of pulsar technology to create a more stable, economical, and environmentally friendly energy infrastructure. Pulsars, with their precise and reliable timing characteristics, have emerged as a promising tool for enhancing energy systems. This review begins by examining the development history of pulsar technology, shedding light on its evolution and the milestones achieved. It then provides a comprehensive summary of the current state of research, highlighting recent advancements and breakthroughs in this field. It also explores transformative pulsar applications in energy systems, including improved grid stability, advanced energy synchronization, and efficient energy storage management. However, implementing pulsar-related technologies presents significant technical, economic, and operational challenges. This review examines these hurdles and proposes strategies to overcome them, emphasizing the need for innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, and supportive policies to fully integrate pulsar technologies into sustainable energy systems.

application↗

Projecting Future Colorado River Basin Water and Hydropower Operations

Drought, variable renewable energy (VRE) resources (primarily wind and photovoltaic technologies), and power markets can all impact hydropower plant operations. We analyze how these three factors collectively may potentially change the future operation and economics of federal dams and hydropower plants located in the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Federal CRB energy and capacity resources, including 4,200 MW of hydropower capacity, are marketed by Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) and sold through long-term Firm Electric Service (FES) contracts to entities located in 15 western and central States that serve millions of electricity consumers. The parameters of FES contracts allow a wide range of scheduling flexibility for FES customers. The FES customers will adjust the timing of energy delivery according to the changing water, power market, and VRE contribution level to the power grid. We simulate and project water and hydropower operations with two models: 1) reservoir operation and 2) power system operation (production cost) with various temporal granularity. We consider two sets of grid scenarios (one representing today's infrastructure, and one representing higher VRE contributions in 2036) and two sets of water scenarios (drought and normal hydrology). We modeled scenarios to understand the power market-energy price levels and patterns, FES customer scheduling, hydropower economics, WAPA finances and hydropower operation for various hydrologic conditions, and VRE contribution level to the power grid. The detailed modeling framework includes: (1) creating ensembles of CRB hydrologic and hydropower futures, (2) selecting representative futures, (3) simulation of FES customer contracts, (4) simulating western U.S. power grid economic scheduling and dispatch under two VRE contribution levels, utilizing information from modeling steps (1)-(4), (5) assessment of reservoir water and hydropower operation, and (6) comparing scenario operations and economics. Our study team comprising WAPA, and an interdisciplinary team of national labs will gain insight into how WAPA can prepare for and adapt its practices in response to an evolving U.S. power grid.

Colorado River↗

Beyond Price-Taker: Multiscale Optimization of Wind and Battery Integrated Energy Systems

Integrating renewable energy into the electric grid is challenging due to the intermittency and variability of wind and other non-dispatchable resources. Integrated energy systems (IESs) combine multiple energy technologies (e.g., fossil, nuclear, renewables, storage) to reduce costs and improve flexibility and reliability. However, standard techno-economic analysis (TEA) methods often overestimate the benefits of IESs because they fail to account for energy market adjustments. This paper systematically studies the limitations of the prevailing price-taker assumption for TEA and optimization of hybrid energy systems. As an illustrative case study, we retrofit an existing wind farm in the RTS-GMLC test system (which loosely mimics the Southwest U.S.) with battery energy storage to form an IES. We show that the standard price-taker model overestimates the electricity revenue and the net present value (NPV) of the IES up to 178% and 30.4%, respectively, compared to our more rigorous multiscale optimization. These differences arise because introducing storage creates a more flexible resource that impacts the larger wholesale electricity market. Moreover, this work highlights the impact of the IES has on the market via various strategic bidding, and underscores the importance of moving beyond price-taker for optimal storage sizing and TEA of IESs. We conclude by discussing opportunities to generalize the proposed framework to other IESs, and highlight emerging research questions regarding the complex interactions between IESs and markets.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Beyond the List: Bioagent-Agnostic Signatures Could Enable a More Flexible and Resilient Biodefense Posture Than an Approach Based on Priority Agent Lists Alone

As of 2021, the biothreat policy and research communities organize their efforts around lists of priority agents, which elides consideration of novel pathogens and biotoxins. For example, the Select Agents and Toxins list is composed of agents that historic biological warfare programs had weaponized or that have previously caused great harm during natural outbreaks. Similarly, lists of priority agents promulgated by the World Health Organization and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases are composed of previously known pathogens and biotoxins. To fill this gap, we argue that the research/scientific and biodefense/biosecurity communities should categorize agents based on how they impact their hosts to augment current list-based paradigms. Specifically, we propose integrating the results of multi-omics studies to identify bioagent-agnostic signatures (BASs) of disease—namely, patterns of biomarkers that accurately and reproducibly predict the impacts of infection or intoxication without prior knowledge of the causative agent. Here, we highlight three pathways that investigators might exploit as sources of signals to construct BASs and their applicability to this framework. The research community will need to forge robust interdisciplinary teams to surmount substantial experimental, technical, and data analytic challenges that stand in the way of our long-term vision. However, if successful, our functionality-based BAS model could present a means to more effectively surveil for and treat known and novel agents alike.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The value of concentrating solar power in ancillary services markets

Ancillary services, such as spinning reserves, can provide grid reliability and contribute to profitability of an energy resource. We exercise an existing dispatch optimization model to estimate the profitability of a concentrating solar power plant by incorporating the sale of spinning reserves in the ancillary service market using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model to simulate operations within a 72-h rolling horizon framework. Assuming a price-taker approach with day-ahead energy and spinning reserve prices from both the California Independent System Operator and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas, we find that selling spinning reserves in addition to electric energy increases plant profitability by up to 7% with perfect knowledge of day-ahead pricing and solar resource availability. Here, this finding suggests that spinning reserve markets provide significant value streams to concentrating solar power plants that can leverage thermal energy storage to offer reliable production in the short-to-medium term.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A hybrid data-driven and model-based approach for computationally efficient stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch under wind and solar uncertainty

Stochastic unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) are imperative in dealing with uncertainty in renewable forecast for power system operation and planning such that the overall expected production cost is minimized over the planning horizon. However, accurate calculation of the expected production cost requires assessment of a very large number of different scenarios of uncertain renewable resources, such as solar and wind, which is practically infeasible to simulate in real time. This article proposes a hybrid datadriven and physics-based model-predictive paradigm to efficiently solve for stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch considering uncertainty in wind and solar power forecasts. Here, the novelty of the approach lies in decoupling the production cost estimation from the unit commitment and economic dispatch optimization problems under uncertainty without compromising on the fidelity of the solutions. A data-driven machine learning model is first developed to predict the mean optimal production cost. A physics-based inverse problem is then solved to get the stochastic UC and ED profiles from the expected cost. The presented approach considers, for the first time, solar uncertainty in UC/ED determination and enables efficient and accurate propagation of wind and solar uncertainty to estimate the statistics of the production cost. The effectiveness of the developed approach is demonstrated systematically on a stylized RTS-GMLC single-node system. The overall framework predicts the expected cost 62.5% more accurately than the existing state-of-the-art, on unforeseen days during the entire year, and yields, for the first time, the associated physically consistent UC and ED profiles. The solutions are also shown to be flexible in providing adequate daily reserves to address any statistical deviations from probabilistic power forecasts. The computational time associated with the presented method is only about 10 s compared to over 24 h needed for a conventional stochastic UC/ED determination under uncertainty on an Intel Core i9 processor with 32 GB of RAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Incremental approach for the life-cycle greenhouse gas analysis of carbon capture and utilization

Electro-fuels (e-fuels) are examples of carbon capture and utilization (CCU) hydrocarbon products that are derived from captured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), while using renewable electricity as the energy feedstock. The environmental impacts of CCU products (e.g., e-fuel) are systematically quantified through life-cycle analysis (LCA). Previous studies evaluating LCA of e-fuels proposed frameworks with an expanded system boundary approach that included the entire supply chain of the production process generating the CO 2 for CCU, in addition to the supply chain of the CCU product. This expanded system boundary approach evaluates two system boundaries, and uses deduction methods to calculate the carbon intensity (CI) of the CCU product (e-fuel). This paper proposes a simpler system boundary using an incremental approach that can calculate identical CI of the CCU product (e-fuel), while avoiding the extensive calculations in the expanded system boundary framework. The proposed incremental approach allocates the burdens of the CO 2 capturing process to the CO 2 feedstock supplying the CCU production process (e.g., e-fuel production). The CI of the captured CO 2 supplied to CCU process is determined by the energy and material requirements for the CO 2 capturing process and transportation to the CCU plant. Thus, the CI of CO 2 supplied to CCU process can be directly linked to the CI of e-fuel without the need to conduct LCA of the preceding process that generates the CO 2 for CCU.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗