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DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Comparison of Stochastic Correlation Models

Five models of stochastic correlation are compared on the basis of the generated associations of Wiener processes. Associations are characterised by the copulas and their K-functions. A confidence domain for the randomly changing K-functions is build on the basis of simulated Wiener process pairs. The models are ordered by the magnitude of the domains of confidence bounds. Larger confidence domains or higher bounds represent higher correlation risk when the models are applied in mathematical finance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Combustion Research I.1 Sprays, Flow, Heat Transfer and Turbulent Mixing

LANL is working with the Partnership for Advance Combustion Engines (PACE) a DOE sponsored consortium of national laboratories for the research and development for creating smarter engine design tools for sustainable transportation. Much of that effort is focused on heat, mass and momentum transfer within and engine. LANL’s focus in 2019, in particular under PACE has been spray modeling and engine mixture formulation, development of conjugate heat transfer analysis (heat transfer to the environment surrounding the combustion chamber). Our efforts relay on the Fast, Easy, Accurate and Robust Continuum Engineering (FEARCE) software developed at LANL as the next generation of engine modeling software for turbulent reactive and multiphase flow, a 2019 R&D 100 winner. This work is relevant to the DOE Vehicle Technologies Office efforts at addressing national energy security as well. Less dependence on petroleum products leads to greater energy security. By Environmental Protection Agency standards, some vehicles are now reaching 42–50 mpg mark. These are conventional gasoline engines. With continued investment and research into new technical innovations, the potential exists to save more than 4 million barrels of oil per day or approximately $200 to $400 million per day. This would be a significant decrease in emissions and use of petroleum and a very large stimulus to the U.S. economy. Better understanding of fuel injection and fuel–air mixing, thermodynamic combustion losses, and combustion/emission formation processes enhances our ability to minimize fuel use and unwanted emissions. Helping to accomplish this understanding, the FEARCE modeling program is working to provide state-of-theart capability for accurately simulating combustion processes: to have a predictive methodology in a software helping industry and researchers not only meet national goals on fuel usage and emissions, but global goals. In addition, a predictive, robust, and accurate capability for simulating the engine combustion process helps to minimize time and labor for development of new engine technology.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Manufacturing Induced Residual Stress Development and Deformation in PMDI-10 Structural Foam

In this report, we investigate how manufacturing conditions result in the warpage of moderate density PMDI polyurethane foam (12-50 lb/ft 3 ) when they are released from a mold. We have developed a multiphysics modeling framework to simulate the manufacturing process including resin injection, foaming and mold filling, gelation of the matrix, elevated cure, vitrification, cool down, and demolding. We have implemented this framework within the Sierra Mechanics Finite Element Code Suite. We couple Aria for flow, energy conservation, and foaming/curing kinetics with Adagio for the nonlinear viscoelastic solid response in a multi-staged simulation process flow. We calibrate a model for the PMDI-10S (10 lb/ft 3 free rise foam) through a suite of characterization data presented here to calibrate the solid cure behavior of the foam. The model is then used and compared to a benchmark experiment, the manufacturing and warpage over 1 year of a 10 cm by 10 cm by 2.5 cm foam "staple". This component features both slender and thick regions that warp considerably differently over time. Qualitative agreement between the model and the experiment is achieved but quantitative accuracy is not.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Extended Finite Element Based Approach in Additive Manufacturing Modeling for Optimizing Highly Complex Manifold in Protonic Ceramic Electrochemical Cells

The objective of this project is to develop a novel numerical approach based on the extended finite element method (XFEM) for modeling moving boundaries of material deposited in additive manufacturing (AM) process with improved accuracy and reduced computational cost. One of the major challenges in simulating AM processes is that the boundaries of the computational domain need to change as material is deposited. Previous approaches have achieved this by activating new finite elements, but this requires a high level of mesh refinement to capture small movement of the boundary. XFEM allows the solution boundary to move independently of the mesh, permitting smooth representation of the evolution of the boundary as material is deposited. As a result, this new method will significantly improve the simulation accuracy while reducing the computational cost compared with existing approaches. Furthermore, this project will bring significant improvements for the design and AM process optimization in an iterative fashion among numerical simuation, parameter optimization, and experimental validation. Specifically, this project will support the protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (PCEC) stack development at INL by providing insights into the density, residual stress, thermal and mechanical properties of the PCEC manifold and interconnect, which is critical in enhancing the system lifetime and reducing the overall cost. Upon the success of proposed development and validation of the proposed approach, simulation will be applied to determine an optimal set of AM process parameters for the PCEC manifold production. This project will consolidate Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s simulation capabilities provided by the MOOSE framework and the Valhalla AM simulation application, with encouraging expansion to emerging PCEC applications and AM technologies at INL and beyond.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

An Agile Design-to-Simulation Workflow Using a New Conforming Moving Least Squares Method

This report summarizes the accomplishments and challenges of a two year LDRD effort focused on improving design-to-simulation agility. The central bottleneck in most solid mechanics simulations is the process of taking CAD geometry and creating a discretization of suitable quality, i.e., the "meshing" effort. This report revisits meshfree methods and documents some key advancements that allow their use on problems with complex geometries, low quality meshes, nearly incompressible materials or that involve fracture. The resulting capability was demonstrated to be an effective part of an agile simulation process by enabling rapid discretization techniques without increasing the time to obtain a solution of a given accuracy. The first enhancement addressed boundary-related challenges associated with meshfree methods. When using point clouds and Euclidean metrics to construct approximation spaces, the boundary information is lost, which results in low accuracy solutions for non-convex geometries and mate rial interfaces. This also complicates the application of essential boundary conditions. The solution involved the development of conforming window functions which use graph and boundary information to directly incorporate boundaries into the approximation space.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Control methods for mitigating flow oscillations in a supercritical CO 2 recompression closed Brayton cycle

A dynamic model of a 10 MWe supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) recompression closed Brayton power generation cycle is used to investigate control methods for mitigating oscillations in flow conditions and power demand load, especially as the load ramp rate is increased and the load setpoint is more closely tracked. The focus is on control of the main compressor inlet temperature (MCIT) since oscillations are prompted by the strong nonlinearities in sCO 2 fluid properties near the critical point and by changes in system inventory for efficient load management. In this study, the oscillatory behavior during load ramping is first shown and then two potential control solutions for substantially reducing oscillations are given: 1) the use of the main compressor inlet guide vanes (IGV) and 2) bypassing a portion of the sCO 2 around the cooler to maintain the MCIT. These control methods reduce the effect of cycle feedback from interactions between the MCIT and load. When implementing either control method, a load setpoint ramp of 7.5%/min was maintainable while achieving closer load setpoint tracking with limited oscillations. Finally, the impact of sensor noise on the control was examined since derivative action was used in the IGV and cooler sCO 2 bypass control. Finally, while some effect was evident, signal noise was not problematic to the control.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Nonlinear Magnetization Dynamics Driven by Strong Terahertz Fields

We present a comprehensive experimental and numerical study of magnetization dynamics in a thin metallic film triggered by single-cycle terahertz pulses of ~20 MV/m electric field amplitude and ~1 ps duration. The experimental dynamics is probed using the femtosecond magneto-optical Kerr effect, and it is reproduced numerically using macrospin simulations. The magnetization dynamics can be decomposed in three distinct processes: a coherent precession of the magnetization around the terahertz magnetic field, an ultrafast demagnetization that suddenly changes the anisotropy of the film, and a uniform precession around the equilibrium effective field that is relaxed on the nanosecond time scale, consistent with a Gilbert damping process. Macrospin simulations quantitatively reproduce the observed dynamics, and allow us to predict that novel nonlinear magnetization dynamics regimes can be attained with existing tabletop terahertz sources.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Energetics of Various Membrane Distillation Configurations and Guidelines for Design and Operation

This paper presents a comparative performance study of single-stage desalination processes with major configurations of membrane distillation (MD) modules. MD modules covered in this study are (a) direct contact MD (DCMD), (b) vacuum MD (VMD), (c) sweeping gas MD (SGMD), and (d) air gap MD (AGMD). MD-based desalination processes are simulated with rigorous theoretical MD models supported by molecular thermodynamic property models for the accurate calculation of performance metrics. The performance metrics considered in MD systems are permeate flux and energy efficiency, i.e., gained output ratio (GOR). A general criterion is established to determine the critical length of these four MDs (at fixed width) for the feasible operation of desalination in a wide range of feed salinities. The length of DCMD and VMD is restricted by the feed salinity and permeate flux, respectively, while relatively large AGMD and SGMD are allowed. The sensitivity of GOR flux with respect to permeate conditions is investigated for different MD configurations. AGMD outperforms other configurations in terms of energy efficiency, while VMD reveals the highest permeate production. With larger MD modules, utilization of thermal energy supplied by the hot feed for evaporation is in the order of VMD > AGMD > SGMD > DCMD. Simulation results highlight that energy efficiency of the overall desalination process relies on the efficient recovery of spent for evaporation, suggesting potential improvement in energy efficiency for VMD-based desalination.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2012

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

Ott, L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data Generation Workflow for Meso/Microscale Coupled Offshore Wind Farm Simulations

A robust, simple-to-use workflow is developed in this study which allows mesoscale information from the NOW-23 database to be easily incorporated into microscale wind farm simulations. This process will enable many different wind farm configurations to be simulated under realistic inflow conditions spanning a variety of atmospheric phenomena.

AMR-Wind↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-based characterization of the variability of earthquake risk to buildings in the near-field

Recent advancements in high performance computing platforms and computational workflow for regional-scale simulations are enabling unprecedented modeling of fault-to-structure earthquake processes. Regional simulations resolving ground motions at frequencies relevant to engineered systems are becoming computationally viable and provide a new capability to improve understanding of the geographical distribution and intensity of risk to buildings and critical infrastructure. As computational capabilities advance, it is essential to move beyond illustrative single rupture realizations for scenario earthquake events towards the development of a full suite of rupture realizations that appropriately characterize the range of risk to building systems. The work described in this article investigates the application of a suite of fault rupture realizations with the objective of assessing near-fault, site-specific seismic demand variability for building structures. A representative high-performance regional-scale computational model is utilized to execute ground motion and building response simulations based on 18 kinematic rupture realizations of an M7 strike-slip scenario earthquake. The fault rupture models for the scenario earthquake are created by systematically perturbing the hypocenter location and stochastically generating rupture parameters (slip, rise time, rake angle) to represent a breadth of ground motion intensities resulting from the spatial and temporal variabilities of an earthquake rupture process. The resulting seismic demand variability for three-story (short period) and forty-story (long period) steel moment-resisting frame buildings is characterized in terms of the median and distribution of peak inter-story drift ratio for a range of near-fault sites. The full suite of 18 fault rupture realizations and approximately 280,000 nonlinear dynamic building simulations indicate that the three-story building undergoes higher median seismic demand and significantly greater variability of demand at a given site than the forty-story building, which has important implications for the level of certainty in predicting building performance during an earthquake. The simulations performed provide deeper insight into the relationship between fault rupture parameterization and building response, which is essential information for developing a representative suite of rupture realizations for specific earthquake scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Computer simulation of surface and film processes

All the investigations which were performed employed in one way or another a computer simulation technique based on atomistic level considerations. In general, three types of simulation methods were used for modeling systems with discrete particles that interact via well defined potential functions: molecular dynamics (a general method for solving the classical equations of motion of a model system); Monte Carlo (the use of Markov chain ensemble averaging technique to model equilibrium properties of a system); and molecular statics (provides properties of a system at T = 0 K). The effects of three-body forces on the vibrational frequencies of triatomic cluster were investigated. The multilayer relaxation phenomena for low index planes of an fcc crystal was analyzed also as a function of the three-body interactions. Various surface properties for Si and SiC system were calculated. Results obtained from static simulation calculations for slip formation were presented. The more elaborate molecular dynamics calculations on the propagation of cracks in two-dimensional systems were outlined.

Tiller, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Monte Carlo study of vibrational relaxation processes

A new model is proposed for the computation of vibrational nonequilibrium in the direct simulation Monte Carlo method (DSMC). This model permits level to level vibrational transitions for the first time in a Monte Carlo flowfield simulation. The model follows the Landau-Teller theory for a harmonic oscillator in which the rates of transition are related to an experimental correlation for the vibrational relaxation time. The usual method for simulating such processes in the DSMC technique applies a constant exchange probability to each collision and the vibrational energy is treated as a continuum. A comparison of these two methods is made for the flow of nitrogen over a wedge. Significant differences exist for the vibrational temperatures computed. These arise as a consequence of the incorrect application of a constant exchange probability in the old method. It is found that the numerical performances of the two vibrational relaxation models are equal.

Boyd, Iain D.↗

NASA NTRS2007

An Approach to Improved Credibility of CFD Simulations for Rocket Injector Design

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has the potential to improve the historical rocket injector design process by simulating the sensitivity of performance and injector-driven thermal environments to. the details of the injector geometry and key operational parameters. Methodical verification and validation efforts on a range of coaxial injector elements have shown the current production CFD capability must be improved in order to quantitatively impact the injector design process.. This paper documents the status of an effort to understand and compare the predictive capabilities and resource requirements of a range of CFD methodologies on a set of model problem injectors. Preliminary results from a steady Reynolds-Average Navier-Stokes (RANS), an unsteady Reynolds-Average Navier Stokes (URANS) and three different Large Eddy Simulation (LES) techniques used to model a single element coaxial injector using gaseous oxygen and gaseous hydrogen propellants are presented. Initial observations are made comparing instantaneous results, corresponding time-averaged and steady-state solutions in the near -injector flow field. Significant differences in the flow fields exist, as expected, and are discussed. An important preliminary result is the identification of a fundamental mixing mechanism, accounted for by URANS and LES, but missing in the steady BANS methodology. Since propellant mixing is the core injector function, this mixing process may prove to have a profound effect on the ability to more correctly simulate injector performance and resulting thermal environments. Issues important to unifying the basis for future comparison such as solution initialization, required run time and grid resolution are addressed.

Tucker, Paul K.↗

DOE OSTI2018

A numerical simulation of a dry-out process for CO 2 sequestration in heterogeneous deep saline aquifers: Original Research Article: Dry-out problem: Multifactorial numerical simulation

Salt precipitation can be generated near the injection well when dry supercritical CO 2 (scCO 2 ) is injected into deep saline aquifers. Traditional laboratory experiments and numerical simulations focus on the generation of salt precipitation and its impact on core permeability. Current laboratory experimental studies have shown that the heterogeneity of the core and water content on the surface of the particles plays an important role in the formation of salt precipitation. The aim of this study is to explore the effects of brine back-flow, heterogeneity, and low water content on salt precipitation. Numerical simulations were performed using core-scale and site-scale models. Simulation results showed the following: 1. Back-flow plays an important role in the salt accumulation near the well – an homogeneous laboratory experiment used with a small core may not provide a full picture of the back-flow phenomenon. 2. The continuous dry-out process reduces the water content near the injection well to zero. As a result, the full range of saturation flow equations should be used to simulate the dry-out process accurately. 3. The heterogeneity of the matrix not only affects the distribution of salt precipitation but also increases the amount of salt precipitation near the well. Homogeneous simulation underestimates the amount of salt precipitation. 4. The reduction in porosity due to salt precipitation could extend the dry-out process in the low permeability zone, further expanding the salt precipitation area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Gaussian Process-Based extended Goldak heat source model for finite element simulation of laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing process

In this study, laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) is a key enabling technology to manufacture highly complex and integrated metallic structures. In L-PBF AM process, the melting of the metal powders and the layers underneath can be governed by either “conduction mode” or “keyhole mode”, with the keyhole mode reportedly leading to porosity and decreased strength and ductility by many studies. In part scale simulations, finite element (FE) model is often used to study the temperature distribution during printing and to predict the residual stress, where a volumetric heat flux with a Gaussian or a double ellipsoidal (Goldak) distribution is often applied as the laser heat source. However, the above heat source models can only capture the melt pool shape in the conduction mode, and fail to capture the transition to keyhole melting mode when the process parameters change. To overcome this inaccuracy, an extended Goldak heat source model is proposed by introducing a laser penetration term as a function of laser parameters obtained from a Gaussian-Process (GP) model. The model is validated by “2D pad” AlSi10Mg L-PBF experiments under a wide range of laser power, scan speed, and laser focus offset, and the results show the model successfully captures the measured melt pool shape in all conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data Mining and Visualization of High-Dimensional ICME Data for Additive Manufacturing

Integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) methods combining CALPHAD with process-based simulations can produce rich, high-dimensional data for alloy and process design. In ICME methods for metallurgical applications, the visualization and interpretation of such high-dimensional data has previously been through heat maps represented in 2 or 3 dimensions. While such an approach is ideal when one variable is varied at a time, in the case of high-dimensional data with multiple variables varied simultaneously, as is the case in additive manufacturing, interpreting the trends through two- or three-dimensional heat maps becomes challenging. Here, we propose a strategy of mixed visual data mining and quantitative analysis for high-dimensional metallurgical and process data using high-throughput thermodynamic calculations. Two case studies show the application of the proposed approach. The first case study investigated the effects of feedstock chemistry on the δ ferrite formation in 316L stainless steel powders used for binder jet additive manufacturing. The second case study linked Scheil–Gulliver calculations to a process model for dissimilar joining of aluminum alloys 5356 and 6111 during laser hot-wire additive manufacturing. Both cases contained thousands of calculated data points, showcasing the utility of visual data analysis through parallel coordinate plotting, Pearson correlation coefficient matrices, and scatter matrices compared to traditional process maps. These visualization techniques can be extended to many additive manufacturing problems to capture process–structure–property relationships for additively manufactured components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗