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NASA NTRS2015

NASA's Rodent Research Project: Validation of Capabilities for Conducting Long Duration Experiments in Space

Research using rodents is an essential tool for advancing biomedical research on Earth and in space. Prior rodent experiments on the Shuttle were limited by the short flight duration. The International Space Station (ISS) provides a new platform for conducting rodent experiments under long duration conditions. Rodent Research (RR)-1 was conducted to validate flight hardware, operations, and science capabilities that were developed at the NASA Ames Research Center. Twenty C57BL6J adult female mice were launched on Sept 21, 2014 in a Dragon Capsule (SpaceX-4), then transferred to the ISS for a total time of 21-22 days (10 commercial mice) or 37 days (10 validation mice). Tissues collected on-orbit were either rapidly frozen or preserved in RNAlater at -80C (n2group) until their return to Earth. Remaining carcasses on-orbit were rapidly frozen for dissection post-flight. The three controls groups at Kennedy Space Center consisted of: Basal mice euthanized at the time of launch, Vivarium controls housed in standard cages, and Ground Controls (GC) housed in flight hardware within an environmental chamber. Upon return to Earth, there were no differences in body weights between Flight (FLT) and GC at the end of the 37 days in space. Liver enzyme activity levels of FLT mice and all control mice were similar in magnitude to those of the samples that were processed under optimal conditions in the laboratory. Liver samples dissected on-orbit yielded high quality RNA (RIN8.99+-0.59, n7). Liver samples dissected post-flight from the intact, frozen FLT carcasses yielded RIN of 7.27 +- 0.52 (n6). Additionally, wet weights of various tissues were measured. Adrenal glands and spleen showed no significant differences in FLT compared to GC although thymus and livers weights were significantly greater in FLT compared to GC. Over 3,000 tissue aliquots collected post-flight from the four groups of mice were deposited into the Ames Life Science Data Archives for future Biospecimen Sharing Program. Together, the RR validation flight successfully demonstrates the capability to support long-duration experimentation on the ISS to achieve both basic science and biomedical objectives.

spaceflight↗

NASA NTRS2016

Rescue and Preservation of Sample Data from the Apollo Missions to the Moon

Six Apollo missions landed on the Moon from 1969-72, returning to Earth 382 kg of lunar rock, soil, and core samples. These samples are among the best documented and preserved samples on Earth that have supported a robust research program for 45 years. From mission planning through sample collection, preliminary examination, and subsequent research, strict protocols and procedures are followed for handling and allocating Apollo subsamples, resulting in the production of vast amounts of documentation. Even today, hundreds of samples are allocated for research each year, building on the science foundation laid down by the early Apollo sample studies and combining new data from today's instrumentation, lunar remote sensing missions and lunar meteorites. Much sample information is available to researchers at curator.jsc.nasa.gov. Decades of analyses on lunar samples are published in LPSC proceedings volumes and other peer-reviewed journals, and tabulated in lunar sample compendia entries. However, for much of the 1969-1995 period, the processing documentation, individual and consortia analyses, and unpublished results exist only in analog forms or primitive digital formats that are either inaccessible or at risk of being lost forever because critical data from early investigators remain unpublished.

Todd, Nancy S.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Science Autonomy for Ocean Worlds Astrobiology: A Perspective

Astrobiology missions to ocean worlds in our solar system must overcome both scientific and technological challenges due to extreme temperature and radiation conditions, long communication times, and limited bandwidth. While such tools could not replace ground-based analysis by science and engineering teams, machine learning algorithms could enhance the science return of these missions through development of autonomous science capabilities. Examples of science autonomy include onboard data analysis and subsequent instrument optimization, data prioritization (for transmission), and real-time decision-making based on data analysis. Similar advances could be made to develop streamlined data processing software for rapid ground-based analyses. Here we discuss several ways machine learning and autonomy could be used for astrobiology missions, including landing site selection, prioritization and targeting of samples, classification of “features” (e.g., proposed biosignatures) and novelties (uncharacterized, “new” features, which may be of most interest to agnostic astrobiological investigations), and data transmission.

ocean worlds↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mars Sample Return, Sample Retrieval Lander, Reaction Control System Jet Interaction Supersonic Wind Tunnel Test Overview with CFD Predictions

NASA's Mars Sample Return campaign will be launching several missions over the next decade that will work together to return rock samples from Mars back to Earth. The Sample Retrieval Lander (SRL) will deliver the Mars Ascent Vehicle and fetch rover to the surface of Mars in 2006. Rock samples collected by the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover, landing in early 2021, will be loaded on the the ascent vehicle to be launched into Mars orbit for retrieval by yet another spacecraft. The Sample Retrieval Lander will be a blunt entry capsule similar to past Mars entry vehicles like Mars Science Laboratory and Viking. The vehicle will fly a guided entry, using a small lift vector produced by a non-zero trim angle of attack to eliminate downrange and crossrange position errors at the point of parachute deploy. This energy and heading management is achieved with a reaction control system (RCS) that directs the bank angle of the vehicle and also minimizes unwanted capsule dynamics. The reaction control system and control design is based on the Mars Science Laboratory and Mars 2020 RCS systems. However, due to packaging constraints, the backshell of this new entry vehicle has a different geometry than those earlier designs. To certify the RCS system for flight the project must characterize the jet plume interactions with the capsule backshell that could impair or significantly augment the RCS control authority. This characterization will be done through a combination of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis and wind tunnel test. Two candidate arrangements of the RCS jets have been identified for the SRL vehicle and are currently under evaluation before final selection. The aero/RCS plume interactions of these candidate configurations have been measured in a supersonic wind tunnel test in NASA Langley's Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The test was conducted in the fall of 2020 and data is currently being reduced. An overview of the candidate RCS configurations are presented here with an overview of the wind tunnel model design, jet scaling and scaled nozzle design, and the test matrix. Preliminary CFD runs are presented with an assessment of the predicted plumes and their interaction with the wake flow of the vehicle. The predicted effects of the model sting is provided as well. This high fidelity wind tunnel test is being conducted much earlier in the SRL project than would normally be done. The test was funded as part of a CFD evaluation task funded by NASA's Aerosciences Evaluation and Test Capabilities Project. The objective of the evaluation task was to compare the ability of CFD to predict complex flows with data that can be measured in the Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. RCS Jet interactions were selected as a type of complex flow that is important to NASA missions. In addition to providing useful data to the SRL project, there was added emphasis on quantifying the accuracy of the CFD predictions and wind tunnel test data. An overview of the uncertainty quantification methodologies for computational and experimental portions of this test is presented.

blunt body↗

NASA NTRS2015

Are the Clast Lithologies Contained in Lunar Breccia 64435 Mixtures of Anorthositic Magmas

The anorthositic crust of the Moon is often used as the archtypical example of a primary planetary crust. The abundance and purity of anorthosite in the Apollo sample collection and remote sensing data are generally attributed to an early global magma ocean which produced widespread floating plagioclase cumulates (the ferroan anorthosites; FANs. Recent geochronology studies report evidence of young (less than 4.4 Ga) FAN ages, which suggest that either some may not be directly produced from the magma ocean or that the final solidification age of the magma ocean was younger than previous estimates. A greater diversity of anorthositic rocks have been identified among lunar meteorites as compared to returned lunar samples. Granted that these lithologies are often based on small clasts in lunar breccias and therefore may not represent their actual whole rock composition. Nevertheless, as suggested by the abundance of anorthositic clasts with Mg# [Mg/(Mg+Fe)] less than 0.80 and the difficulty of producing the extremely high plagioclase contents observed in Apollo samples and the remote sensing data, modification of the standard Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) model may be in order. To ground truth mission science and to further test the LMO and other hypotheses for the formation of the lunar crust, additional coordinated petrology and geochronology studies of lunar anorthosites would be informative. Here we report new mineral chemistry and trace element geochemistry studies of thick sections of a composite of FAN-suite igneous clasts contained in the lunar breccia 64435 in order to assess the significance of this type of sample for petrogenetic studies of the Moon. This work follows recent isotopic studies of the lithologies in 64435 focusing on the same sample materials and expands on previous petrology studies who identified three lithologies in this sample and worked on thin sections.

Simon, J. I.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Assessment of Gamma Radiation Resistance of Spores Isolated from the Spacecraft Assembly Facility During MSL Assembly

Spore forming bacteria, a common inhabitant of spacecraft assembly facilities, are known to tolerate extreme environmental conditions such as radiation, desiccation, and high temperatures. Since the Viking era (early 1970's), spores have been utilized to assess the degree and level of microbiological contamination on spacecraft and their associated spacecraft assembly facilities. There is a growing concern that desiccation and extreme radiation resistant spore forming microorganisms associated with spacecraft surfaces can withstand space environmental conditions and subsequently proliferate on another solar body. Such forward contamination would certainly jeopardize future life detection or sample return technologies. It is important to recognize that different classes of organisms are critical while calculating the probability of contamination, and methods must be devised to estimate their abundances. Microorganisms can be categorized based on radiation sensitivity as Type A, B, C, and D. Type C represents spores resistant to radiation (10% or greater survival above 0.8 mRad gamma radiation). To address these questions we have purified 96 spore formers, isolated during planetary protection efforts of Mars Science Laboratory assembly for gamma radiation resistance. The spores purified and stored will be used to generate data that can be used further to model and predict the probability of forward contamination.

extreme environments↗

NASA NTRS2011

Assessment of Gamma Radiation Resistance of Spores Isolated from the Spacecraft Assembly Facility During MSL Assembly

Spore forming bacteria, a common inhabitant of spacecraft assembly facilities, are known to tolerate extreme environmental conditions such as radiation, desiccation, and high temperatures. Since the Viking era (early 1970's), spores have been utilized to assess the degree and level of microbiological contamination on spacecraft and their associated spacecraft assembly facilities. There is a growing concern that desiccation and extreme radiation resistant spore forming microorganisms associated with spacecraft surfaces can withstand space environmental conditions and subsequently proliferate on another solar body. Such forward contamination would certainly jeopardize future life detection or sample return technologies. It is important to recognize that different classes of organisms are critical while calculating the probability of contamination, and methods must be devised to estimate their abundances. Microorganisms can be categorized based on radiation sensitivity as Type A, B, C, and D. Type C represents spores resistant to radiation (10% or greater survival above 0.8 Mrad gamma radiation). To address these questions we have purified 96 spore formers, isolated during planetary protection efforts of Mars Science Laboratory assembly for gamma radiation resistance. The spores purified and stored will be used to generate data that can be used further to model and predict the probability of forward contamination.

spacecraft assembly↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Geology Sampling System for Microgravity Bodies

Human exploration of microgravity bodies is being investigated as a precursor to a Mars surface mission. Asteroids, comets, dwarf planets, and the moons of Mars all fall into this microgravity category and some are been discussed as potential mission targets. Obtaining geological samples for return to Earth will be a major objective for any mission to a microgravity body. Currently the knowledge base for geology sampling in microgravity is in its infancy. Humans interacting with non-engineered surfaces in microgravity environment pose unique challenges. In preparation for such missions a team at the NASA Johnson Space Center has been working to gain experience on how to safely obtain numerous sample types in such an environment. This paper describes the type of samples the science community is interested in, highlights notable prototype work, and discusses an integrated geology sampling solution.

Hood, Anthony↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Geology Sampling System for Small Bodies

Human exploration of microgravity bodies is being investigated as a precursor to a Mars surface mission. Asteroids, comets, dwarf planets, and the moons of Mars all fall into this microgravity category and some are being discussed as potential mission targets. Obtaining geological samples for return to Earth will be a major objective for any mission to a small body. Currently, the knowledge base for geology sampling in microgravity is in its infancy. Humans interacting with non-engineered surfaces in microgravity environment pose unique challenges. In preparation for such missions a team at the NASA Johnson Space Center has been working to gain experience on how to safely obtain numerous sample types in such an environment. This paper describes the type of samples the science community is interested in, highlights notable prototype work, and discusses an integrated geology sampling solution.

Naids, Adam J.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Characterization of Hydrogen in Basaltic Materials With Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) for Application to MSL ChemCam Data

Here, the Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity , is equipped with ChemCam, a laser–induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) instrument, to determine the elemental composition of nearby targets quickly and remotely. We use a laboratory sample set including prepared mixtures of basalt with systematic variation in hydrated mineral content and compositionally well–characterized, altered basaltic volcanic rocks to measure hydrogen by characterizing the H–alpha emission line in LIBS spectra under Martian environmental conditions. The H contents of all samples were independently measured using thermogravimetric analysis. We found that H peak area increases with weight percent H for our laboratory mixtures with basaltic matrices. The increase is linear with weight percent H in the mixtures with structurally bound H up to about 1.25 wt.% H and then steepens for higher H–content samples, a nonlinear trend not previously reported but potentially important for characterizing high water content materials. To compensate for instrument, environmental, and target matrix–related effects on quantification of H content from the LIBS signal, we examined multiple normalization methods. The best performing methods utilize O 778– and C 248–nm emission lines. The methods return comparable results when applied to ChemCam data of H–bearing materials on Mars. The calibration and normalization methods tested here will aid in investigations of H by LIBS on Mars with ChemCam and SuperCam. Further laboratory work will aid quantification across different physical matrices and heterogeneous textures because of differences we observed in H in pelletized and natural rock samples of the same composition.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Cometary Coma Chemical Composition (C4) Mission

Cometary exploration remains of great importance to virtually all of space science. Because comets are presumed to be remnants of the early solar nebula, they are expected to provide fundamental knowledge as to the origin and development of the solar system as well as to be key to understanding of the source of volatiles and even life itself in the inner solar system. Clearly the time for a detailed study of the composition of these apparent messages from the past has come. A comet rendezvous mission, the Cometary Coma Chemical Composition (C4) Mission, is now being studied as a candidate for the new Discovery program. This mission is a highly-focussed and usefully-limited subset of the Cometary Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby (CRAF) Mission. The C4 mission will concentrate on measurements that will produce an understanding of the composition and physical makeup of a cometary nucleus. The core science goals of the C4 mission are 1) to determine the chemical, elemental, and isotopic composition of a cometary nucleus and 2) to characterize the chemical and isotopic nature of its atmosphere. A related goal is to obtain temporal information about the development of the cometary coma as a function of time and orbital position. The four short-period comets -- Tempel 1, Tempel 2, Churyumov-Gerasimenko, and Wirtanen -which all appear to have acceptable dust production rates, were identified as candidate targets. Mission opportunities have been identified beginning as early as 1998. Tempel I with a launch in 1999, however, remains the baseline comet for studies of and planning the C4 mission. The C4 mission incorporates two science instruments and two engineering instruments in the payload to obtain the desired measurements. The science instruments include an advanced version of the Cometary Ice and Dust Experiment (CIDEX), a mini-CIDEX with a sample collection system, an X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer and a Pyrolysis-Gas Chromatograph, and a simplified version of the Neutral Gas and Ion Mass Spectrometer (NIGMS). Both of these instruments have substantial heritage as they are based on those developed for the CRAF Mission. The engineering instruments include a simplified Comet Dust Environmental Monitor (SCODEM) and a navigational Camera, NAVCAM. While neither of the instruments will be permitted to establish science requirements, it is anticipated that significant science return will be accomplished Radio science will also be included.

Carle, Glenn C.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Hummingbird Comet Nucleus Analysis Mission

Hummingbird is a highly focused scientific mission, proposed to NASA s Discovery Program, designed to address the highest priority questions in cometary science-that of the chemical composition of the cometary nucleus. After rendezvous with the comet, Hummingbird would first methodically image and map the comet, then collect and analyze dust, ice and gases from the cometary atmosphere to enrich characterization of the comet and support landing site selection. Then, like its namesake, Hummingbird would carefully descend to a pre-selected surface site obtaining a high-resolution image, gather a surface material sample, acquire surface temperature and then immediately return to orbit for detailed chemical and elemental analyses followed by a high resolution post-sampling image of the site. Hummingbird s analytical laboratory contains instrumentation for a comprehensive molecular and elemental analysis of the cometary nucleus as well as an innovative surface sample acquisition device.

Kojiro, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Vision for the Exploration of Mars: Robotic Precursors Followed by Humans to Mars Orbit in 2033

The reformulation of the Mars program gives NASA a rare opportunity to deliver a credible vision in which humans, robots, and advancements in information technology combine to open the deep space frontier to Mars. There is a broad challenge in the reformulation of the Mars exploration program that truly sets the stage for: 'a strategic collaboration between the Science Mission Directorate (SMD), the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) and the Office of the Chief Technologist, for the next several decades of exploring Mars'.Any strategy that links all three challenge areas listed into a true long term strategic program necessitates discussion. NASA's SMD and HEOMD should accept the President's challenge and vision by developing an integrated program that will enable a human expedition to Mars orbit in 2033 with the goal of returning samples suitable for addressing the question of whether life exists or ever existed on Mars

Sellers, Piers J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Conformal Ablative Thermal Protection System for Planetary and Human Exploration Missions

The Office of Chief Technologist (OCT), NASA has identified the need for research and technology development in part from NASAs Strategic Goal 3.3 of the NASA Strategic Plan to develop and demonstrate the critical technologies that will make NASAs exploration, science, and discovery missions more affordable and more capable. Furthermore, the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) is a primary avenue to achieve the Agencys 2011 strategic goal to Create the innovative new space technologies for our exploration, science, and economic future. In addition, recently released NASA Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities, by the National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academy of Sciences stresses the need for NASA to invest in the very near term in specific EDL technologies. The report points out the following challenges (Page 2-38 of the pre-publication copy released on February 1, 2012): Mass to Surface: Develop the ability to deliver more payload to the destination. NASA's future missions will require ever-greater mass delivery capability in order to place scientifically significant instrument packages on distant bodies of interest, to facilitate sample returns from bodies of interest, and to enable human exploration of planets such as Mars. As the maximum mass that can be delivered to an entry interface is fixed for a given launch system and trajectory design, the mass delivered to the surface will require reductions in spacecraft structural mass more efficient, lighter thermal protection systems more efficient lighter propulsion systems and lighter, more efficient deceleration systems. Surface Access: Increase the ability to land at a variety of planetary locales and at a variety of times. Access to specific sites can be achieved via landing at a specific location(s) or transit from a single designated landing location, but it is currently infeasible to transit long distances and through extremely rugged terrain, requiring landing close to the site of interest. The entry environment is not always guaranteed with a direct entry, and improving the entry systems robustness to a variety of environmental conditions could aid in reaching more varied landing sites. The National Research Council (NRC) Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities report highlights six challenges and they are: 1) Mass to Surface, 2) Surface Access, 3) Precision Landing, 4) Surface Hazard Detection and Avoidance, 5) Safety and Mission Assurance, and 6) Affordability. In order for NASA to meet these challenges, the report recommends immediate focus on Rigid and Flexible Thermal Protection Systems. Rigid TPS systems such as Avcoat or SLA are honeycomb based and PICA is in the form of tiles. The honeycomb systems is manufactured using techniques that require filling of each (3/8 cell) by hand and within a limited amount of time once the ablative compound is mixed, all of the cells have to be filled and the entire heat-shield has to be cured. The tile systems such as PICA pose a different challenge as the mechanical strength characteristic and the manufacturing limitations require large number of small tiles with gap-fillers between the tiles. Recent investments in flexible ablative systems have given rise to the potential for conformal ablative TPS> A conformal TPS over a rigid aeroshell has the potential to solve a number of challenges faced by traditional rigid TPS materials.

Beck, R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Conformal Ablative Thermal Protection System for Planetary and Human Exploration Missions: Overview of the Technology Maturation Efforts Funded by NASA's Game Changing Development Program

The Office of Chief Technologist (OCT), NASA has identified the need for research and technology development in part from NASA's Strategic Goal 3.3 of the NASA Strategic Plan to develop and demonstrate the critical technologies that will make NASA's exploration, science, and discovery missions more affordable and more capable. Furthermore, the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) is a primary avenue to achieve the Agency's 2011 strategic goal to "Create the innovative new space technologies for our exploration, science, and economic future." In addition, recently released "NASA space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities," by the National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academy of Sciences stresses the need for NASA to invest in the very near term in specific EDL technologies. The report points out the following challenges (Page 2-38 of the pre-publication copy released on February 1, 2012): Mass to Surface: Develop the ability to deliver more payload to the destination. NASA's future missions will require ever-greater mass delivery capability in order to place scientifically significant instrument packages on distant bodies of interest, to facilitate sample returns from bodies of interest, and to enable human exploration of planets such as Mars. As the maximum mass that can be delivered to an entry interface is fixed for a given launch system and trajectory design, the mass delivered to the surface will require reduction in spacecraft structural mass; more efficient, lighter thermal protection systems; more efficient lighter propulsion systems; and lighter, more efficient deceleration systems. Surface Access: Increase the ability to land at a variety of planetary locales and at a variety of times. Access to specific sites can be achieved via landing at a specific location (s) or transit from a single designated landing location, but it is currently infeasible to transit long distances and through extremely rugged terrain, requiring landing close to the site of interest. The entry environment is not always guaranteed with a direct entry, and improving the entry system's robustness to a variety of environmental conditions could aid in reaching more varied landing sites."

Beck, Robin A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA's Space Launch System: Momentum Builds Toward First Launch

NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) is gaining momentum toward the first launch of a new exploration-class heavy lift launch vehicle for international exploration and science initiatives. The SLS comprises an architecture that begins with a vehicle capable of launching 70 metric tons (t) into low Earth orbit. It will launch the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) on its first autonomous flight beyond the Moon and back in December 2017. Its first crewed flight follows in 2021. SLS can evolve to a130-t lift capability and serve as a baseline for numerous robotic and human missions ranging from a Mars sample return to delivering the first astronauts to explore another planet. The SLS Program formally transitioned from the formulation phase to implementation with the successful completion of the rigorous Key Decision Point C review in 2014. As a result, the Agency authorized the Program to move forward to Critical Design Review, scheduled for 2015. In the NASA project life cycle process, SLS has completed 50 percent of its major milestones toward first flight. Every SLS element manufactured development hardware for testing over the past year. Accomplishments during 2013/2014 included manufacture of core stage test articles, preparations for qualification testing the solid rocket boosters and the RS-25 main engines, and shipment of the first flight hardware in preparation for the Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) in 2014. SLS was conceived with the goals of safety, affordability, and sustainability, while also providing unprecedented capability for human exploration and scientific discovery beyond Earth orbit. In an environment of economic challenges, the SLS team continues to meet ambitious budget and schedule targets through the studied use of hardware, infrastructure, and workforce investments the United States made in the last half century, while selectively using new technologies for design, manufacturing, and testing, as well as streamlined management approaches that have increased decision velocity and reduced associated costs. This paper will summarize recent SLS Program accomplishments, as well as the challenges and opportunities ahead for the most powerful and capable launch vehicle in history.

May, Todd A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Progress in Manufacturing & Characterizing Domestic Lyocell PICA (PICA-D) and Comparison to Heritage PICA

NASA ARC (Ames Research Center) is working with SMD-PSD (NASA Science Mission Directorate- Planetary Science Directorate) to address PICA ( Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator) rayon sustainability concerns. In FY16/17, Lyocell Based PICA (PICA-D (Domestic)) was manufactured and limited testing performed showing it to be a good candidate as a potential replacement for heritage rayon. Establishing PICA-D as a "drop in replacement" will allow missions to depend on and design missions with PICA without any risk typical of a replacement. Establishing the extended capability of PICA-D will allow Sample Return Missions with higher entry speed that were not considered before.

Lyocell↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change

Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding extreme weather attribution can become crucial when considering the events’ impacts. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) method, useful in extreme weather attribution research, has a very specific interpretation concerning a class of events, and there is potential to misinterpret results from weather event analyses as being applicable to specific events and their impact outcomes. Using two case studies of meteorological extremes and their impacts, we argue that FAR is not generally appropriate when estimating the magnitude of the anthropogenic signal behind a specific impact. Attribution assessments on impacts should always be carried out in addition to assessment of the associated meteorological event, since it cannot be assumed that the anthropogenic signal behind the weather is equivalent to the signal behind the impact because of lags and nonlinearities in the processes through which the impact system reacts to weather. Whilst there are situations where employing FAR to understand the climate change signal behind a class of impacts is useful (e.g. ‘system breaking’ events), more useful results will generally be produced if attribution questions on specific impacts are reframed to focus on changes in the impact return value and magnitude across large samples of factual and counterfactual climate model and impact simulations. We advocate for constant interdisciplinary collaboration as essential for effective and robust impact attribution assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗