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Quality Assurance Framework for Mini-Grids

To address the root challenges of providing quality power to remote consumers through financially viable mini-grids, the Global Lighting and Energy Access Partnership (Global LEAP) initiative of the Clean Energy Ministerial and the U.S. Department of Energy teamed with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Power Africa to develop a Quality Assurance Framework (QAF) for isolated mini-grids. The framework addresses both alternating current (AC) and direct current (DC) mini-grids, and is applicable to renewable, fossil-fuel, and hybrid systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Seasonality and longer-term development generate temporal dynamics in the Populus microbiome

ABSTRACT Temporal variation in community composition is central to our understanding of the assembly and functioning of microbial communities, yet the controls over temporal dynamics for microbiomes of long-lived plants, such as trees, remain unclear. Temporal variation in tree microbiomes could arise primarily from seasonal (i.e., intra-annual) fluctuations in community composition or from longer-term changes across years as host plants age. To test these alternatives, we experimentally isolated temporal variation in plant microbiome composition using a common garden and clonally propagated plants, and we used amplicon sequencing to characterize bacterial/archaeal and fungal communities in the leaf endosphere, root endosphere, and rhizosphere of two Populus spp. over four seasons across two consecutive years. Microbial community composition differed among seasons and years (which accounted for up to 21% of the variation in microbial community composition) and was correlated with seasonal dissimilarity in climatic conditions. However, microbial community dissimilarity was also positively correlated with time, reflecting longer-term compositional shifts as host trees aged. Together, our findings demonstrate that temporal patterns in tree microbiomes arise from both seasonal fluctuations and longer-term changes, which interact to generate unique seasonal patterns each year. In addition to shedding light on two important controls over the assembly of plant microbiomes, our results also suggest future studies of tree microbiomes should account for background temporal dynamics when testing the drivers of spatial patterns in microbial community composition and temporal responses of plant microbiomes to environmental change. IMPORTANCE Microbiomes are integral to the health of host plants, but we have a limited understanding of the factors that control how the composition of plant microbiomes changes over time. Especially little is known about the microbiome of long-lived trees, relative to annual and non-woody plants. We tested how tree microbiomes changed between seasons and years in poplar (genus Populus ), which are widespread and ecologically important tree species that also serve as important biofuel feedstocks. We found the composition of bacterial, archaeal, and fungal communities differed among seasons, but these seasonal differences depended on year. This dependence was driven by longer-term changes in microbial composition as host trees developed across consecutive years. Our findings suggest that temporal variation in tree microbiomes is driven by both seasonal fluctuations and longer-term (i.e., multiyear) development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Inverse Design of Photonic Surfaces via High throughput Femtosecond Laser Processing and Tandem Neural Networks

Abstract This work demonstrates a method to design photonic surfaces by combining femtosecond laser processing with the inverse design capabilities of tandem neural networks that directly link laser fabrication parameters to their resulting textured substrate optical properties. High throughput fabrication and characterization platforms are developed that generate a dataset comprising 35280 unique microtextured surfaces on stainless steel with corresponding measured spectral emissivities. The trained model utilizes the nonlinear one‐to‐many mapping between spectral emissivity and laser parameters. Consequently, it generates predominantly novel designs, which reproduce the full range of spectral emissivities (average root‐mean‐squared‐error < 2.5%) using only a compact region of laser parameter space 25 times smaller than what is represented in the training data. Finally, the inverse design model is experimentally validated on a thermophotovoltaic emitter design application. By synergizing laser‐matter interactions with neural network capabilities, the approach offers insights into accelerating the discovery of photonic surfaces, advancing energy harvesting technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fast and interpretable classification of small X-ray diffraction datasets using data augmentation and deep neural networks

X-ray diffraction (XRD) data acquisition and analysis is among the most time-consuming steps in the development cycle of novel thin-film materials. We propose a machine-learning-enabled approach to predict crystallographic dimensionality and space group from a limited number of thin-film XRD patterns. We overcome the scarce-data problem intrinsic to novel materials development by coupling a supervised machine learning approach with a model-agnostic, physics-informed data augmentation strategy using simulated data from the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database (ICSD) and experimental data. As a test case, 115 thin-film metal-halides spanning 3 dimensionalities and 7 space-groups are synthesized and classified. After testing various algorithms, we develop and implement an all convolutional neural network, with cross-validated accuracies for dimensionality and space-group classification of 93% and 89%, respectively. We propose average class activation maps, computed from a global average pooling layer, to allow high model interpretability by human experimentalists, elucidating the root-causes of misclassification. Finally, we systematically evaluate the maximum XRD pattern step size (data acquisition rate) before loss of predictive accuracy occurs, and determine it to be 0.16° 2θ, which enables an XRD pattern to be obtained and classified in 5.5 minutes or less.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tripogon loliiformis tolerates rapid desiccation after metabolic and transcriptional priming during initial drying

Abstract Crop plants and undomesticated resilient species employ different strategies to regulate their energy resources and growth. Most crop species are sensitive to stress and prioritise rapid growth to maximise yield or biomass production. In contrast, resilient plants grow slowly, are small, and allocate their resources for survival in challenging environments. One small group of plants, termed resurrection plants, survive desiccation of their vegetative tissue and regain full metabolic activity upon watering. However, the precise molecular mechanisms underlying this extreme tolerance remain unknown. In this study, we employed a transcriptomics and metabolomics approach, to investigate the mechanisms of desiccation tolerance in Tripogon loliiformis , a modified desiccation-tolerant plant, that survives gradual but not rapid drying. We show that T. loliiformis can survive rapid desiccation if it is gradually dried to 60% relative water content (RWC). Furthermore, the gene expression data showed that T. loliiformis is genetically predisposed for desiccation in the hydrated state, as evidenced by the accumulation of MYB, NAC, bZIP, WRKY transcription factors along with the phytohormones, abscisic acid, salicylic acid, amino acids (e.g., proline) and TCA cycle sugars during initial drying. Through network analysis of co-expressed genes, we observed differential responses to desiccation between T. loliiformis shoots and roots. Dehydrating shoots displayed global transcriptional changes across broad functional categories, although no enrichment was observed during drying. In contrast, dehydrating roots showed distinct network changes with the most significant differences occurring at 40% RWC. The cumulative effects of the early stress responses may indicate the minimum requirements of desiccation tolerance and enable T. loliiformis to survive rapid drying. These findings potentially hold promise for identifying biotechnological solutions aimed at developing drought-tolerant crops without growth and yield penalties.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

J-PLUS: Support vector regression to measure stellar parameters

Stellar parameters are among the most important characteristics in studies of stars which, in traditional methods, are based on atmosphere models. However, time, cost, and brightness limits restrain the efficiency of spectral observations. The Javalambre Photometric Local Universe Survey (J-PLUS) is an observational campaign that aims to obtain photometry in 12 bands. Owing to its characteristics, J-PLUS data have become a valuable resource for studies of stars. Machine learning provides powerful tools for efficiently analyzing large data sets, such as the one from J-PLUS, and enables us to expand the research domain to stellar parameters. The main goal of this study is to construct a support vector regression (SVR) algorithm to estimate stellar parameters of the stars in the first data release of the J-PLUS observational campaign. The training data for the parameter's regressions are featured with 12-waveband photometry from J-PLUS and are crossidentified with spectrum-based catalogs. These catalogs are from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope, the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment, and the Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration. We then label them with the stellar effective temperature, the surface gravity, and the metallicity. Ten percent of the sample is held out to apply a blind test. We develop a new method, a multi-model approach, in order to fully take into account, the uncertainties of both the magnitudes and the stellar parameters. The method utilizes more than 200 models to apply the uncertainty analysis. We present a catalog of 2 493 424 stars with the root mean square error of 160 K in the effective temperature regression, 0.35 in the surface gravity regression, and 0.25 in the metallicity regression. We also discuss the advantages of this multi-model approach and compare it to other machine-learning methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Improved noise performance from the next-generation buried-channel p-MOSFET SiSeROs

The Single electron Sensitive Read Out (SiSeRO) is a novel on-chip charge detector output stage for charge-coupled device (CCD) image sensors. Developed at MIT Lincoln Laboratory, this technology uses a p-MOSFET transistor with a depleted internal gate beneath the transistor channel. The transistor source-drain current is modulated by the transfer of charge into the internal gate. At Stanford, we have developed a readout module based on the drain current of the on-chip transistor to characterize the device. In our earlier work, we characterized a number of first prototype SiSeROs with the MOSFET transistor channels at the surface layer. An equivalent noise charge (ENC) of around 15 electrons root mean square (RMS) was obtained. In this work, we examine the first buried-channel SiSeRO. Here we have achieved substantially improved noise performance of around 4.5 electrons root mean square (RMS) and a full width half maximum (FWHM) energy resolution of 132 eV at 5.9 keV, for a readout speed of 625 kpixel/s. We also discuss how digital filtering techniques can be used to further improve the SiSeRO noise performance. Additional measurements and device simulations will be essential to further mature the SiSeRO technology. This new device class presents an exciting new technology for the next-generation astronomical X-ray telescopes requiring fast, low-noise, radiation-hard megapixel imagers with moderate spectroscopic resolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SU-G-JeP4-01: An Assessment of a Microsoft Kinect V2 Sensor for Voluntary Breath-Hold Monitoring in Radiotherapy

Purpose: To determine whether the Microsoft Kinect Version 2 (Kinect v2), a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) depth sensors designed for entertainment purposes, were robust to the radiotherapy treatment environment and could be suitable for monitoring of voluntary breath-hold compliance. This could complement current visual monitoring techniques, and be useful for heart sparing left breast radiotherapy. Methods: In-house software to control Kinect v2 sensors, and capture output information, was developed using the free Microsoft software development kit, and the Cinder creative coding C++ library. Each sensor was used with a 12m USB 3.0 active cable. A solid water block was used as the object. The depth accuracy and precision of the sensors was evaluated by comparing Kinect reported distance to the object with a precision laser measurement across a distance range of 0.6m to 2.0 m. The object was positioned on a high-precision programmable motion platform and moved in two programmed motion patterns and Kinect reported distance logged. Robustness to the radiation environment was tested by repeating all measurements with a linear accelerator operating over a range of pulse repetition frequencies (6Hz to 400Hz) and dose rates 50 to 1500 monitor units (MU) per minute. Results: The complex, consistent relationship between true and measured distance was unaffected by the radiation environment, as was the ability to detect motion. Sensor precision was < 1 mm and the accuracy between 1.3 mm and 1.8 mm when a distance correction was applied. Both motion patterns were tracked successfully with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.4 and 1.1 mm respectively. Conclusion: Kinect v2 sensors are capable of tracking pre-programmed motion patterns with an accuracy <2 mm and appear robust to the radiotherapy treatment environment. A clinical trial using Kinect v2 sensor for monitoring voluntary breath hold has ethical approval and is open to recruitment. The authors are supported by a National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Career Development Fellowship (CDF-2013-06-005). Microsoft Corporation donated three sensors. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the National Institute for Health Research or the Department of Health.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Flash NanoPrecipitation as an Agrochemical Nanocarrier Formulation Platform: Phloem Uptake and Translocation after Foliar Administration

The increasing severity of pathogenic and environmental stressors that negatively affect plant health has led to interest in developing next-generation agrochemical delivery systems capable of precisely transporting active agents to specific sites within plants. In this work, we adapt Flash NanoPrecipitation (FNP), a scalable nanocarrier (NC) formulation technology used in the pharmaceutical industry, to prepare organic core–shell NCs and study their efficacy as foliar or root delivery vehicles. NCs ranging in diameter from 55 to 200 nm, with surface zeta potentials from -40 to +40 mV, and with seven different shell material properties were prepared and studied. Shell materials included synthetic polymers poly(acrylic acid), poly(ethylene glycol), and poly(2-(dimethylamino)ethyl methacrylate), naturally occurring compounds fish gelatin and soybean lecithin, and semisynthetic hydroxypropyl methylcellulose acetate succinate (HPMCAS). NC cores contained a gadolinium tracer for tracking by mass spectrometry, a fluorescent dye for tracking by confocal microscopy, and model hydrophobic compounds (alpha tocopherol acetate and polystyrene) that could be replaced by agrochemical payloads in subsequent applications. After foliar application onto tomato plants with Silwet L-77 surfactant, internalization efficiencies of up to 85% and NC translocation efficiencies of up to 32% were observed. Significant NC trafficking to the stem and roots suggests a high degree of phloem loading for some of these formulations. Results were corroborated by confocal microscopy and synchrotron X-ray fluorescence mapping. NCs stabilized by cellulosic HPMCAS exhibited the highest degree of translocation, followed by formulations with a significant surface charge. The results from this work indicate that biocompatible materials like HPMCAS are promising agrochemical delivery vehicles in an industrially viable pharmaceutical nanoformulation process (FNP) and shed light on the optimal properties of organic NCs for efficient foliar uptake, translocation, and delivery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Plant Characteristics, Porewater, Gas Flux, and Soil Biogeochemistry at Council Road Site Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2023

Data collected at Council, AK (64°51’35.0”N 163°41’59.1”W) during a summer campaign in 2023. Water data consists of soil porewater collected by centrifuging soil cores and also by field collection with porewater samplers (rhizons). Gas data consists of CO2, CH4 and N2O surface soil fluxes measured with a portable FTIR analyzer. Plant and root data consists of biomass, root length, diameter and mass. Soil data consists of total C and N. Air, water and soil samples span two main locations: a thermokarst wetland and an upland tussock. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).This dataset was generated to broadly address the following research question: how will climate change (i.e., thawing permafrost, landscape change) alter the ecosystem flux (sink versus source) of important greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4 and N2O?Description of the contents of this data package: This dataset contains 5 different individual .csv files containing plant, soil, water and gas data. No software is needed to utilize them. PFTCover: Plant functional type ground cover in 1x1 meter plots. SoilCores: Solidphase and porewater phase soil biogeochemical variablesPlantData: Above and belowground plant traits. GasFlux: Surface plant-soil gas measurementsFieldPorewater: Field collected porewater biogeochemical variables

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct observations of shock-induced melting in a porous solid using time-resolved x-ray diffraction

Here in this work we provide direct evidence of shock-induced melting and associated kinetics in a porous solid (aluminum powder) using time-resolved x-ray diffraction. Unambiguous evidence of melting in 50% porous aluminum (Al) powder samples, shocked to peak pressures between ~13 - 19 GPa, was provided by the broadening of the Debye-Scherrer ring corresponding to the (111) peak. Shocked Al powder did not melt completely in any of our experiments within the durations of measurement. Incomplete (partial) melting of the powder, even after several hundreds of nanoseconds of shock loading, provides insights into thermal transport with Al powder particles under high-pressure dynamic loading. Such insights are quite valuable for developing well-constrained melting models and thermodynamic equations of state for porous Al and other porous solids relevant to planetary and materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Using intrahost single nucleotide variant data to predict SARS-CoV-2 detection cycle threshold values

Over the last four years, each successive wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has been caused by variants with mutations that improve the transmissibility of the virus. Despite this, we still lack tools for predicting clinically important features of the virus. In this study, we show that it is possible to predict the PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from clinical detection assays using sequence data. Ct values often correspond with patient viral load and the epidemiological trajectory of the pandemic. Using a collection of 36,335 high quality genomes, we built models from SARS-CoV-2 intrahost single nucleotide variant (iSNV) data, computing XGBoost models from the frequencies of A, T, G, C, insertions, and deletions at each position relative to the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference genome. Our best model had an R 2 of 0.604 [0.593–0.616, 95% confidence interval] and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.247 [5.156–5.337], demonstrating modest predictive power. Overall, we show that the results are stable relative to an external holdout set of genomes selected from SRA and are robust to patient status and the detection instruments that were used. This study highlights the importance of developing modeling strategies that can be applied to publicly available genome sequence data for use in disease prevention and control.

COVID19↗

A Methodology for Robust Load Reduction in Wind Turbine Blades Using Flow Control Devices

Decades of wind turbine research, development and installation have demonstrated reductions in levelized cost of energy (LCOE) resulting from turbines with larger rotor diameters and increased hub heights. Further reductions in LCOE by up-scaling turbine size can be challenged by practical limitations such as the square-cube law: where the power scales with the square of the blade length and the added mass scales with the volume (the cube). Active blade load control can disrupt this trend, allowing longer blades with less mass. This paper presents the details of the development of a robust load control system to reduce blade fatigue loads. The control system, which we coined sectional lift control or SLC, uses a lift actuator model to emulate an active flow control device. The main contributions of this paper are: (1) Methodology for SLC design to reduce dynamic blade root moments in a neighborhood of the rotor angular frequency (1P). (2) Analysis and numerical evidence supporting the use of a single robust SLC for all wind speeds, without the need for scheduling on wind speed or readily available measurements such as collective pitch or generator angular speed. (3) Intuition and numerical evidence to demonstrate that the SLC and the turbine controller do not interact. (4) Evaluation of the SLC using a full suite of fatigue and turbine performance metrics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

TH-AB-202-08: A Robust Real-Time Surface Reconstruction Method On Point Clouds Captured From a 3D Surface Photogrammetry System

Purpose: Surface photogrammetry (e.g. VisionRT, C-Rad) provides a noninvasive way to obtain high-frequency measurement for patient motion monitoring in radiotherapy. This work aims to develop a real-time surface reconstruction method on the acquired point clouds, whose acquisitions are subject to noise and missing measurements. In contrast to existing surface reconstruction methods that are usually computationally expensive, the proposed method reconstructs continuous surfaces with comparable accuracy in real-time. Methods: The key idea in our method is to solve and propagate a sparse linear relationship from the point cloud (measurement) manifold to the surface (reconstruction) manifold, taking advantage of the similarity in local geometric topology in both manifolds. With consistent point cloud acquisition, we propose a sparse regression (SR) model to directly approximate the target point cloud as a sparse linear combination from the training set, building the point correspondences by the iterative closest point (ICP) method. To accommodate changing noise levels and/or presence of inconsistent occlusions, we further propose a modified sparse regression (MSR) model to account for the large and sparse error built by ICP, with a Laplacian prior. We evaluated our method on both clinical acquired point clouds under consistent conditions and simulated point clouds with inconsistent occlusions. The reconstruction accuracy was evaluated w.r.t. root-mean-squared-error, by comparing the reconstructed surfaces against those from the variational reconstruction method. Results: On clinical point clouds, both the SR and MSR models achieved sub-millimeter accuracy, with mean reconstruction time reduced from 82.23 seconds to 0.52 seconds and 0.94 seconds, respectively. On simulated point cloud with inconsistent occlusions, the MSR model has demonstrated its advantage in achieving consistent performance despite the introduced occlusions. Conclusion: We have developed a real-time and robust surface reconstruction method on point clouds acquired by photogrammetry systems. It serves an important enabling step for real-time motion tracking in radiotherapy. This work is supported in part by NIH grant R01 CA169102-02.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A decreasing carbon allocation to belowground autotrophic respiration in global forest ecosystems

Belowground autotrophic respiration (RAsoil) depends on carbohydrates from photosynthesis flowing to roots and rhizospheres, and is one of the most important but least understood components in forest carbon cycling. Carbon allocation plays an important role in forest carbon cycling and reflects forest adaptation to changing environmental conditions. However, carbon allocation to RAsoil has not been fully examined at the global scale. To fill this knowledge gap, first, the spatio-temporal patterns of RAsoil from 1981 to 2017 were predicted by a Random Forest (RF) algorithm using the most updated Global Soil Respiration Database (v5) with global environmental variables; second, carbon allocation from photosynthesis to RAsoil (CAB), was calculated as the ratio of RAsoil to gross primary production; and its temporal and spatial patterns were assessed in global forest ecosystems. . Globally, mean RAsoil from forests was 8.9 ± 0.08 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± standard deviation) from 1981 to 2017 with strong spatial variabilities. Temporally, RAsoil increased at a rate of 0.0059 Pg C yr-2, paralleling broader soil respiration changes and indicating increasing carbon respired by roots. Mean CAB was 0.243 ± 0.016 and decreased over time. The temporal trend of CAB varied greatly in space, reflecting uneven responses of CAB to environmental changes. This study is the first attempt to predict global CAB and analyze its temporal and spatial patterns. With the linkage of carbon use efficiency, the developed CAB offers an completely independent approach to quantify global aboveground autotropic respiration spatially and temporally, which could provide crucial insights into carbon flux partition and global carbon cycling under climate change.

Tang, Xiaolu↗

Bandgap prediction by deep learning in configurationally hybridized graphene and boron nitride

Abstract It is well-known that the atomic-scale and nano-scale configuration of dopants can play a crucial role in determining the electronic properties of materials. However, predicting such effects is challenging due to the large range of atomic configurations that are possible. Here, we present a case study of how deep learning algorithms can enable bandgap prediction in hybridized boron–nitrogen graphene with arbitrary supercell configurations. A material descriptor that enables correlation of structure and bandgap was developed for convolutional neural networks. Bandgaps calculated by ab initio calculations, and corresponding structures, were used as training datasets. The trained networks were then used to predict bandgaps of systems with various configurations. For 4 × 4 and 5 × 5 supercells they accurately predict bandgaps, with a R 2 of >90% and root-mean-square error of ~0.1 eV. The transfer learning was performed by leveraging data generated from small supercells to improve the prediction accuracy for 6 × 6 supercells. This work will pave a route to future investigation of configurationally hybridized graphene and other 2D materials. Moreover, given the ubiquitous existence of configurations in materials, this work may stimulate interest in applying deep learning algorithms for the configurational design of materials across different length scales.

Dong, Yuan↗

Identification of linearised RMS-voltage dip patterns based on clustering in renewable plants

Generation units connected to the grid are currently required to meet low-voltage ride-through (LVRT) requirements. In most developed countries, these requirements also apply to renewable sources, mainly wind power plants and photovoltaic installations connected to the grid. This study proposes an alternative characterisation solution to classify and visualise a large number of collected events in light of current limits and requirements. The authors' approach is based on linearised root-mean-square-(RMS)-voltage trajectories, taking into account LRVT requirements, and a clustering process to identify the most likely pattern trajectories. The proposed solution gives extensive information on an event's severity by providing a simple but complete visualisation of the linearised RMS-voltage patterns. In addition, these patterns are compared to current LVRT requirements to determine similarities or discrepancies. A large number of collected events can then be automatically classified and visualised for comparative purposes. Real disturbances collected from renewable sources in Spain are used to assess the proposed solution. Extensive results and discussions are also included in this study.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Influence of Shear on Deep Convection Initiation. Part II: Simulations

Abstract This study evaluates a hypothesis for the role of vertical wind shear in deep convection initiation (DCI) that was introduced in Part I by examining behavior of a series of numerical simulations. The hypothesis states, “Initial moist updrafts that exceed a width and shear threshold will ‘root’ within a progressively deeper steering current with time, increase their low-level cloud-relative flow and inflow, widen, and subsequently reduce their susceptibility to entrainment-driven dilution, evolving toward a quasi-steady self-sustaining state.” A theoretical model that embodied key elements of the hypothesis was developed in Part I, and the behavior of this model was explored within a multidimensional environmental parameter space. Remarkably similar behavior is evident in the simulations studied here to that of the theoretical model, both in terms of the temporal evolution of DCI and in the sensitivity of DCI to environmental parameters. Notably, both the simulations and theoretical model experience a bifurcation in outcomes, whereby nascent clouds that are narrower than a given initial radius R 0 threshold quickly decay and those above the R 0 threshold undergo DCI. An important assumption in the theoretical model, which states that the cloud-relative flow of the background environment V CR determines cloud radius R , is scrutinized in the simulations. It is shown that storm-induced inflow is small relative to V CR beyond a few kilometers from the updraft edge, and V CR therefore plays a predominant role in transporting conditionally unstable air to the updraft. Thus, the critical role of V CR in determining R is validated.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗