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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Field Surveyed Backsheet Degradation

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like tree-lines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj.R 2 of 0.95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2021

A predictive discrete-continuum multiscale model of plasticity with quantified uncertainty

Multiscale models of materials, consisting of upscaling discrete simulations to continuum models, are unique in their capability to simulate complex materials behavior. The fundamental limitation in multiscale models is the presence of uncertainty in the computational predictions delivered by them. In this work, a sequential multiscale model has been developed, incorporating discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) simulations and a strain gradient plasticity (SGP) model to predict the size effect in plastic deformations of metallic micro-pillars. The DDD simulations include uniaxial compression of micro-pillars with different sizes and over a wide range of initial dislocation densities and spatial distributions of dislocations. An SGP model is employed at the continuum level that accounts for the size-dependency of flow stress and hardening rate. Sequences of uncertainty analyses have been performed to assess the predictive capability of the multiscale model. The variance-based global sensitivity analysis determines the effect of parameter uncertainty on the SGP model prediction. The multiscale model is then constructed by calibrating the continuum model using the data furnished by the DDD simulations. A Bayesian calibration method is implemented to quantify the uncertainty due to microstructural randomness in discrete dislocation simulations (density and spatial distribution of dislocations) on the macroscopic continuum model prediction (size effect in plastic deformation). Here, the outcomes of this study indicate that the discrete-continuum multiscale model can accurately simulate the plastic deformation of micro-pillars, despite the significant uncertainty in the DDD results. Additionally, depending on the macroscopic features represented by the DDD simulations, the SGP model can reliably predict the size effect in plasticity responses of the micropillars with below 10% of error.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression (MGTWR): exploring the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of EV market adoption

As an innovative vehicle technology, electric vehicles are experiencing growing sales and have made significant inroads into the traditional automotive market in the United States and around the world. However, EV adoption rates vary significantly across space and over time, influenced by a complex interplay of socio-economic and infrastructural factors alongside federal and state policies. Here, this paper presents a comprehensive spatial–temporal investigation of EV market adoption within one city in the US, that of Chicago, utilizing Multiscale Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (MGTWR) alongside Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR). The aim is to unravel the spatial and temporal dynamics affecting EV adoption and to explore how the influence of various determinants of EV adoption, such as demographic factors and economic conditions, vary spatially. Moreover, by utilizing MGTWR, we provide insights into the evolution of these relationships over time, offering a predictive outlook on future EV market growth. Our findings, with an 86.6% prediction accuracy for EV market adoption, tailored policy measures to support accelerated EV adoption. Methodologically, this work advances MGWR frameworks by integrating temporal dynamics to examine nonstationary processes in spatially disaggregated contexts. These findings offer evidence–based guidance for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders in the automotive industry, supporting the transition toward a more sustainable and efficient transportation system.

EV Market Adoption↗
DOE OSTI2020

A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration

Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1991

Pictorial communication in virtual and real environments

Papers about the communication between human users and machines in real and synthetic environments are presented. Individual topics addressed include: pictorial communication, distortions in memory for visual displays, cartography and map displays, efficiency of graphical perception, volumetric visualization of 3D data, spatial displays to increase pilot situational awareness, teleoperation of land vehicles, computer graphics system for visualizing spacecraft in orbit, visual display aid for orbital maneuvering, multiaxis control in telemanipulation and vehicle guidance, visual enhancements in pick-and-place tasks, target axis effects under transformed visual-motor mappings, adapting to variable prismatic displacement. Also discussed are: spatial vision within egocentric and exocentric frames of reference, sensory conflict in motion sickness, interactions of form and orientation, perception of geometrical structure from congruence, prediction of three-dimensionality across continuous surfaces, effects of viewpoint in the virtual space of pictures, visual slant underestimation, spatial constraints of stereopsis in video displays, stereoscopic stance perception, paradoxical monocular stereopsis and perspective vergence. (No individual items are abstracted in this volume)

Ellis, Stephen R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meta Biome: a multiscale model integrating agent-based and metabolic networks to reveal spatial regulation in gut mucosal microbial communities

ABSTRACT Mucosal microbial communities (MMCs) are complex ecosystems near the mucosal layers of the gut essential for maintaining health and modulating disease states. Despite advances in high-throughput omics technologies, current methodologies struggle to capture the dynamic metabolic interactions and spatiotemporal variations within MMCs. In this work, we presentMetaBiome, a multiscale model integrating agent-based modeling (ABM), finite volume methods, and constraint-based models to explore the metabolic interactions within these communities. Integrating ABM allows for the detailed representation of individual microbial agents each governed by rules that dictate cell growth, division, and interactions with their surroundings. Through a layered approach—encompassing microenvironmental conditions, agent information, and metabolic pathways—we simulated different communities to showcase the potential of the model. Using ourin-silicoplatform, we explored the dynamics and spatiotemporal patterns of MMCs in the proximal small intestine and the cecum, simulating the physiological conditions of the two gut regions. Our findings revealed how specific microbes adapt their metabolic processes based on substrate availability and local environmental conditions, shedding light on spatial metabolite regulation and informing targeted therapies for localized gut diseases.MetaBiome provides a detailed representation of microbial agents and their interactions, surpassing the limitations of traditional grid-based systems. This work marks a significant advancement in microbial ecology, as it offers new insights into predicting and analyzing microbial communities. IMPORTANCE Our study presents a novel multiscale model that combines agent-based modeling, finite volume methods, and genome-scale metabolic models to simulate the complex dynamics of mucosal microbial communities in the gut. This integrated approach allows us to capture spatial and temporal variations in microbial interactions and metabolism that are difficult to study experimentally. Key findings from our model include the following: (i) prediction of metabolic cross-feeding and spatial organization in multi-species communities, (ii) insights into how oxygen gradients and nutrient availability shape community composition in different gut regions, and (iii) identification of spatiallyregulated metabolic pathways and enzymes inE. coli. We believe this work represents a significant advance in computational modeling of microbial communities and provides new insights into the spatial regulation of gut microbiome metabolism. The multiscale modeling approach we have developed could be broadly applicable for studying other complex microbial ecosystems.

Microbiology↗
NASA NTRS2002

Sources of Uncertainty in the Prediction of LAI / fPAR from MODIS

To explicate the sources of uncertainty in the prediction of biophysical variables over space, consider the general equation: where z is a variable with values on some nominal, ordinal, interval or ratio scale; y is a vector of input variables; u is the spatial support of y and z ; x and u are the spatial locations of y and z , respectively; f is a model and B is the vector of the parameters of this model. Any y or z has a value and a spatial extent which is called its support. Viewed in this way, categories of uncertainty are from variable (e.g. measurement), parameter, positional. support and model (e.g. structural) sources. The prediction of Leaf Area Index (LAI) and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) are examples of z variables predicted using model(s) as a function of y variables and spatially constant parameters. The MOD15 algorithm is an example of f, called f(sub 1), with parameters including those defined by one of six biome types and solar and view angles. The Leaf Canopy Model (LCM)2, a nested model that combines leaf radiative transfer with a full canopy reflectance model through the phase function, is a simpler though similar radiative transfer approach to f(sub 1). In a previous study, MOD15 and LCM2 gave similar results for the broadleaf forest biome. Differences between these two models can be used to consider the structural uncertainty in prediction results. In an effort to quantify each of the five sources of uncertainty and rank their relative importance for the LAI/fPAR prediction problem, we used recent data for an EOS Core Validation Site in the broadleaf biome with coincident surface reflectance, vegetation index, fPAR and LAI products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). Uncertainty due to support on the input reflectance variable was characterized using Landsat ETM+ data. Input uncertainties were propagated through the LCM2 model and compared with published uncertainties from the MOD15 algorithm.

Dungan, Jennifer L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

GEO/SAMS - The Geostationary Synthetic Aperture Microwave Sounder

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has for many years operated two weather satellite systems, the Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite system (POES), using low-earth orbiting (LEO) satellites, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite system (GOES), using geostationary earth orbiting (GEO) satellites. (Similar systems are also operated by other nations.) The POES satellites have been equipped with both infrared (IR) and microwave (MW) atmospheric sounders, which makes it possible to determine the vertical distribution of temperature and humidity in the troposphere even under cloudy conditions. Such satellite observations have had a significant impact on weather forecasting accuracy, especially in regions where in situ observations are sparse. In contrast, the GOES satellites have only been equipped with IR sounders, since it has not been feasible to build a large enough antenna to achieve sufficient spatial resolution for a MW sounder in GEO. As a result, GOES soundings can only be obtained in cloud free areas and in the less important upper atmosphere, above the cloud tops. This has hindered the effective use of GOES data in numerical weather prediction. Full sounding capabilities with the GOES system is highly desirable because of the advantageous spatial and temporal coverage that is possible from GEO. While POES satellites provide coverage in relatively narrow swaths, and with a revisit time of 12-24 hours or more, GOES satellites can provide continuous hemispheric coverage, making it possible to monitor highly dynamic phenomena such as hurricanes.

Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Mapping Yearly Fine Resolution Global Surface Ozone through the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Data Fusion of Observations and Model Output for 1990–2017

Estimates of ground-level ozone concentrations are necessary to determine the human health burden of ozone. To support the Global Burden of Disease Study, we produce yearly fine resolution global surface ozone estimates from 1990 to 2017 through a data fusion of observations and models. As ozone observations are sparse in many populated regions, we use a novel combination of the M3Fusion and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) methods. With M3Fusion, we create a multi-model composite by bias-correcting and weighting nine global atmospheric chemistry models based on their ability to predict observations (8,834 sites globally)in each region and year. BME is then used to integrate observations, such that estimates match observations at each monitoring site with the observational influence decreasing smoothly across space and time until the output matches the multi-model composite. After estimating at 0.5° resolution using BME, we add fine spatial detail from an additional model, yielding estimates at 0.1° resolution. Observed ozone is predicted more accurately (R2=0.81 at test point, 0.63 at 0.1°,0.62 at 0.5°) than the multi-model mean (R2=0.28 at 0.5°). Global ozone exposure is estimated to be increasing, driven by highly populated regions of Asia and Africa, despite decreases in the United States and Russia.

environmental modeling↗
NASA NTRS1990

Herbig-Haro objects

The IUE (International Ultraviolet Explorer) spectra of Herbig-Haro (HH) objects and their relation to the very detailed optical spectra available for these objects are studied. Useful information about the physics of HH objects in general and especially about their hydrodynamic models which are contained in these IUE observations is outlined. The merged spectra of high excitation, low excitation HH objects (like HH43 and HH47), and peculiar HH objects are discussed. Results of the spatial variation of lines and continua in HH objects are discussed. Their compatibility with predictions for aerodynamic and especially bow shock models is discussed. The problems arising in the interpretation of the continuous energy distribution in the short wavelength range are discussed. They require the presence of other emission mechanisms in addition to the collisionally enhanced two photon continuum. In HH43 the fluorescent H2 line emission comes from a surprisingly small spatial region. Implications of these results are discussed.

Boehm, K. H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting nonresonant pressure-driven MHD modes in equilibria with low magnetic shear

Nonresonant internal modes can be difficult to anticipate as there is no resonant surface in the plasma. However, equilibria that are unstable to multiple nonresonant magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes may be more prone to global loss of confinement since these instabilities generate spatially extended linear displacements, potentially enhancing magnetic field line chaos via nonlinear interactions. Here, we successfully predict the unstable nonresonant pressure-driven modes for equilibria with zero shear in the plasma core, irrational q on axis, and a central pressure gradient, which is consistent with pre-crash profiles in sawtoothing tokamak plasmas in the large-aspect-ratio limit. A criterion for identifying nonresonant modes most likely to be unstable is developed from the convergents of the continued fraction representation of q 0 . A higher-order analysis of the standard Energy Principle reveals the conditions under which these modes are expected to dominate. Linear growth rate spectra, as a function of toroidal mode number (up to n = 30), calculated using the initial-value extended-MHD code, M3D-C1, recover the characteristic dependence observed for ideal infernal modes. Nonresonant modes have also been invoked in some ideal sawtooth crash models. Finally, this work provides a mechanism to predict the mode numbers of infernal modes and, potentially, the width of some post-sawtooth-crash profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1995

Influence of fiber architecture on the elastic an d inelastic response of metal matrix composites

This three part paper focuses on the effect of fiber architecture (i.e., shape and distribution) on the elastic and inelastic response of metal matrix composites. The first part provides an annotative survey of the literature, presented as a historical perspective, dealing with the effects of fiber shape and distribution on the response of advanced polymeric matrix and metal matrix composites. Previous investigations dealing with both continuously and discontinuously reinforced composites are included. A summary of the state-of-the-art will assist in defining new directions in this quickly reviving area of research. The second part outlines a recently developed analytical micromechanics model that is particularly well suited for studying the influence of these effects on the response of metal matrix composites. This micromechanics model, referred to as the generalized method of cells (GMC), is capable of predicting the overall, inelastic behavior of unidirectional, multi-phased composites given the properties of the constituents. In particular, the model is sufficiently general to predict the response of unidirectional composites reinforced by either continuous or discontinuous fibers with different inclusion shapes and spatial arrangements in the presence of either perfect or imperfect interfaces and/or interfacial layers. Recent developments regarding this promising model, as well as directions for future enhancements of the model's predictive capability, are included. Finally, the third pan provides qualitative results generated using GMC for a representative titanium matix composite system, SCS-6/TlMETAL 21S. Results are presented that correctly demonstrate the relative effects of fiber arrangement and shape on the longitudinal and transverse stress-strain and creep response, with both strong and weak fiber/matrix interfacial bonds. The fiber arrangements include square, square diagonal, hexagonal and rectangular periodic arrays, as well as a random array. The fiber shapes include circular, square and cross-shaped cross sections. The effect of fiber volume fraction on the observed stress-strain response is also discussed, as the thus-far poorly documented strain rate sensitivity effect. In addition to the well documented features of architecture dependent response of continuously reinforced two-phase MMC's, new results involving continuous multi-phase internal architectures are presented. Specifically, stress strain and creep response of composites with different size fibers having different internal arrangements and bond strengths are investigated with the aim of determining the feasibility of using this approach to enhance the transverse toughness and creep resistance of TMC's.

Arnold, Steven M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prominence Mass Supply and the Cavity

A prevalent but untested paradigm is often used to describe the prominence-cavity system; the cavity is under-dense because it it evacuated by supplying mass to the condensed prominence. The thermal non-equilibrium (TNE) model of prominence formation offers a theoretical framework to predict the thermodynamic evolutin of the prominence and the surrounding corona. We examine the evidence for a prominence-cavity connection by comparing the TNE model and diagnostics of dynamic extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emission surrounding the prominence, specifically prominence horns. Horns are correlated extensions of prminence plasma and coronal plasma which appear to connect the prominence and cavity. The TNE model predicts that large-scale brightenings will occur in the Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly 171 A badpass near he prominence that are associated with the cooling phase of condensation formation. In our simulations, variations in the magnitude of footpoint heating lead to variations in the duration, spatial scale, and temporal offset between emission enhancements in the other EUV bandpasses. While these predictions match well a subset of the horn observations, the range of variations in the observed structures is not captured by the model. We discuss the implications of one-dimensional loop simulations for the three-dimensional time-averaged equilibrium in the prominence and the cavity. Evidence suggests that horns are likely caused by condensing prominence plasma, but the larger question of whether this process produces a density-depleted cavity requires a more tightly constrained model of heating and better knowledge of the associated magnetic structure.

PROMINENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large Ensemble Particle Filter for Spatial Climate Reconstructions Using a Linear Inverse Model

Proxy records that document the last 2000 years of climate provide evidence for the wide range of the natural climate variability from inter-annual to secular timescales not captured by the short window of recent direct observations. Assessing climate models ability to reproduce such natural variations is crucial to understand climate sensitivity and impacts of future climate change. Paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) offers a powerful way to extend the short instrumental period by optimally combining the physics described by General Circulation Climate Models (GCMs) with information from available proxy records while taking into account their uncertainties. Here we present a new PDA approach based on a sequential importance resampling (SIR) Particle filter (PF) that uses Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) as an emulator of several CMIP-class GCMs. We examine in a perfect-model framework the skill of the various LIMs to forecast the dynamics of the surface temperatures and provide spatial field reconstructions over the last millennium in a SIR PF. Our results show that the LIMs allow for skillful ensemble forecasts at 1-year lead-time based on GCMs dynamical knowledge with best prediction in the tropics and the North Atlantic. The PDA further provides a set of physically consistent spatial fields allowing robust uncertainty quantification related to climate models biases and proxy spatial sampling. Our results indicate that the LIM yields dynamical memory improving climate variability reconstructions and support the use of the LIM as a GCM-emulator in real reconstruction to propagate large ensembles of particles at low cost in SIR PF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Virtual sensing-enabled digital twin framework for real-time monitoring of nuclear systems leveraging deep neural operators

Abstract Real-time monitoring is a foundation of nuclear digital twin technology, crucial for detecting material degradation and maintaining nuclear system integrity. Traditional physical sensor systems face limitations, particularly in measuring critical parameters in hard-to-reach or harsh environments, often resulting in incomplete data coverage. Machine learning-driven virtual sensors offer a transformative solution by complementing physical sensors in monitoring critical degradation indicators. This paper introduces the use of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONet) to predict key thermal-hydraulic parameters in the hot leg of pressurized water reactor. DeepONet acts as a virtual sensor, mapping operational inputs to spatially distributed system behaviors without requiring frequent retraining. Our results show that DeepONet achieves low mean squared and Relative L2 error, making predictions 1400 times faster than traditional CFD simulations . These characteristics enable DeepONet to function as a real-time virtual sensor, synchronizing with the physical system to track degradation conditions and provide insights within the digital twin framework for nuclear systems.

Hossain, Raisa↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry data associated with the manuscript “A functional microbiome catalog crowdsourced from North American rivers"

This data package is associated with the publication “A functional microbiome catalog crowdsourced from North American rivers” submitted to Nature (Borton et al., 2024); (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.07.22.550117v1). Predicting elemental cycles and maintaining water quality under increasing anthropogenic influence requires understanding the spatial drivers of river microbiomes. However, the unifying microbial determinants governing river biogeochemistry are hindered by a lack of genome-resolved functional insights and sampling across multiple rivers. Here we employed a community science effort to accelerate the sampling of river microbiomes to create the Genome Resolved Open Watersheds database (GROWdb). GROWdb is a publicly available resource that paves the way for watershed predictive modeling and microbiome-based management practices. This resource profiled the identity, distribution, function, and expression of thousands of microbial genomes across rivers covering 90% of United States watersheds. We identified the most cosmopolitan microbiome members, while also revealing local drivers of strain endemism across ecological dimensions. We provide the first evidence that microbial functional trait expression followed the tenets of the River Continuum Concept, suggesting the structure and function of river microbiomes is predictable. The Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data were one of many different data types used in establishing the ecological dimensions along which different microbes were detected .This data package only contains the processed FTICR-MS data associated with this manuscript; all other data is accessible via Zenodo (https://zenodo.org/records/8173287), GitHub (https://github.com/jmikayla1991/Genome-Resolved-Open-Watersheds-database-GROWdb), KBase (https://doi.org/10.25982/109073.30/1895615), and NCBI via Bioproject PRJNA946291.This dataset consists of (1) a file-level metadata (flmd) file; (2) a data dictionary (dd) file; (3) a readme; (4) three Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) processed data files (a ‘data’ file containing peak-by-sample observations, a ‘mol’ file containing peak metadata, and a transformation profile containing transformation-by-sample observations). All files are .csv or .pdf.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two-Stream Multi-Channel Convolutional Neural Network for Multi-Lane Traffic Speed Prediction Considering Traffic Volume Impact

Traffic speed prediction is a critically important component of intelligent transportation systems. Recently, with the rapid development of deep learning and transportation data science, a growing body of new traffic speed prediction models have been designed that achieved high accuracy and large-scale prediction. However, existing studies have two major limitations. First, they predict aggregated traffic speed rather than lane-level traffic speed; second, most studies ignore the impact of other traffic flow parameters in speed prediction. To address these issues, the authors propose a two-stream multi-channel convolutional neural network (TM-CNN) model for multi-lane traffic speed prediction considering traffic volume impact. In this model, the authors first introduce a new data conversion method that converts raw traffic speed data and volume data into spatial–temporal multi-channel matrices. Then the authors carefully design a two-stream deep neural network to effectively learn the features and correlations between individual lanes, in the spatial–temporal dimensions, and between speed and volume. Accordingly, a new loss function that considers the volume impact in speed prediction is developed. A case study using 1-year data validates the TM-CNN model and demonstrates its superiority. This paper contributes to two research areas: (1) traffic speed prediction, and (2) multi-lane traffic flow study.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗