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At least 703 records · Page 39

Development Strategies for Uncertainty Quantification to Enable Aircraft Certification by Analysis

Aircraft Certification by Analysis (CbA) is a broad term that describes the process by which engineering analysis tools are used to supplement flight testing to demonstrate compliance with regulatory requirements. For each requirement that is to be met through this process, the analysis tools must be sufficiently accurate to ensure that an equivalent level of safety is obtained as if the aircraft to be certified had been flight tested for the requirement. In recent decades, the ability of analysis tools to accurately predict aircraft performance has improved dramatically, leading to increasing interest and limited early adoption of Certification by Analysis across the aerospace industry. However, rigorously demonstrating the credibility of analysis tools remains a challenge for many types of certification requirements, yet is necessary for widespread adoption of CbA approaches in the future. The field of uncertainty quantification is well-suited to address this problem, but will require substantial advances in order to achieve the ambitious industry goals for Certification by Analysis. The objective of this position paper is to highlight gaps in the current technical and programmatic state of uncertainty quantification. Four main categories – Mindset & Awareness, Tools & Capabilities, Data and Benchmarks for V&V, and Applied Research & Established Processes – will be introduced. Each of these categories contains several shortcomings and impediments which, if overcome, will enable more widespread possibilities for Certification by Analysis in the 2040-2050 timeframe.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

The Nasa Multiscale Analysis Tool: an Enabling Platform for Achieving Vision 2040

Vision 2040 is a community-driven consensus document, written in 2018, aimed at defining the potential 25-year future state required for performing integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems for future aerospace and aeronautical applications. Nine Vision Key Elements (KEs) were defined along with associated technical gaps. This paper will address current NASA GRC research efforts utilizing the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). This paper will specifically focus on NASMAT’s ability to address gaps in three of the nine Vision 2040 KEs: 1) Models and Methods, 2) Multiscale Measurements and Characterization Tools and Methods, and 6) Data, Informatics, and Visualization. NASMAT is a versatile platform for performing computationally efficient multiscale analyses of heterogeneous materials. NASMAT offers the user flexibility to define an arbitrary number of length scales (levels) where a variety of micromechanics theories can be implemented at each level. Micromechanics theories can be selected to balance accuracy and computational efficiency and range from analytical (Mori-Tanaka) to several semi-analytical (method of cells) formulations. NASMAT can also be coupled with external software and used to perform multiscale analyses of more complex structures. The paper will include a recent application of NASMAT to model a complex, three-dimensional woven composite, with a particular emphasis placed on multiscale measurements utilized to enhance the quality of the multiscale analysis. Since typical NASMAT analyses can be completed in on the order of seconds to minutes, a second example will demonstrate NASMAT’s ability to generate large quantities of data useful for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, or machine learning applications. Current progress on developing multiscale data visualization tools will also be addressed along with the challenges associated with and proposed solutions for sifting through large amounts of data. These examples will demonstrate that NASMAT is an enabling platform for achieving the goals in Vision 2040.

Vision 2040↗

NASA Technical Management Report (533Q)

The objective of this task is analytical support of the NASA Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) program in the areas of SLR data analysis, software development, assessment of SLR station performance, development of improved models for atmospheric propagation and interpretation of station calibration techniques, and science coordination and analysis functions for the NASA led Central Bureau of the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS). The contractor shall in each year of the five year contract: (1) Provide software development and analysis support to the NASA SLR program and the ILRS. Attend and make analysis reports at the monthly meetings of the Central Bureau of the ILRS covering data received during the previous period. Provide support to the Analysis Working Group of the ILRS including special tiger teams that are established to handle unique analysis problems. Support the updating of the SLR Bibliography contained on the ILRS web site; (2) Perform special assessments of SLR station performance from available data to determine unique biases and technical problems at the station; (3) Develop improvements to models of atmospheric propagation and for handling pre- and post-pass calibration data provided by global network stations; (4) Provide review presentation of overall ILRS network data results at one major scientific meeting per year; (5) Contribute to and support the publication of NASA SLR and ILRS reports highlighting the results of SLR analysis activity.

Klosko, S. M.↗

Full-scale system impact analysis: Digital document storage project

The Digital Document Storage Full Scale System can provide cost effective electronic document storage, retrieval, hard copy reproduction, and remote access for users of NASA Technical Reports. The desired functionality of the DDS system is highly dependent on the assumed requirements for remote access used in this Impact Analysis. It is highly recommended that NASA proceed with a phased, communications requirement analysis to ensure that adequate communications service can be supplied at a reasonable cost in order to validate recent working assumptions upon which the success of the DDS Full Scale System is dependent.

Source record↗

Experiences in using modal synthesis within project requirements

Modal synthesis methods were developed for use by engineers for cost-effective solutions of large structural dynamics problems. Different methods were proposed by various investigators based upon comparative solutions of relatively simple structures using different forms of displacement functions. The application of modal synthesis methods to a large complex structure in a project environment is described. The considerations include analysis, hardware interfaces, schedules, tests, resources, and other project requirements. Good technical results were obtained through the use of an integrated analysis/test modal synthesis on both substructures and systems.

Garba, J. A.↗

The real-time learning mechanism of the Scientific Research Associates Advanced Robotic System (SRAARS)

Scientific research associates advanced robotic system (SRAARS) is an intelligent robotic system which has autonomous learning capability in geometric reasoning. The system is equipped with one global intelligence center (GIC) and eight local intelligence centers (LICs). It controls mainly sixteen links with fourteen active joints, which constitute two articulated arms, an extensible lower body, a vision system with two CCD cameras and a mobile base. The on-board knowledge-based system supports the learning controller with model representations of both the robot and the working environment. By consecutive verifying and planning procedures, hypothesis-and-test routines and learning-by-analogy paradigm, the system would autonomously build up its own understanding of the relationship between itself (i.e., the robot) and the focused environment for the purposes of collision avoidance, motion analysis and object manipulation. The intelligence of SRAARS presents a valuable technical advantage to implement robotic systems for space exploration and space station operations.

Chen, Alexander Y.↗

HL-20 personnel launch system - A concept definition case study

For several years, the NASA Langley Research Center has been involved in defining options for future space transportation systems. As part of this effort, for the past 2 years, an analysis of a candidate Personnel Launch System to deliver and return people and small payloads to and from Space Station Freedom has been conducted. This effort has involved a government/industry/university team in conducting an indepth analysis of the HL-20 lifting body concept to provide a technically viable, affordable Personnel Launch System. This paper will use the HL-20 PLS definition activity to illustrate the process that is used by Langley to mature vehicle concepts to identify technical/development risks and costs for future transportation systems.

Freeman, Delma C., Jr.↗

Measures and Interpretations of Vigilance Performance: Evidence Against the Detection Criterion

Operators' performance in a vigilance task is often assumed to depend on their choice of a detection criterion. When the signal rate is low this criterion is set high, causing the hit and false alarm rates to be low. With increasing time on task the criterion presumably tends to increase even further, thereby further decreasing the hit and false alarm rates. Virtually all of the empirical evidence for this simple interpretation is based on estimates of the bias measure Beta from signal detection theory. In this article, I describe a new approach to studying decision making that does not require the technical assumptions of signal detection theory. The results of this new analysis suggest that the detection criterion is never biased toward either response, even when the signal rate is low and the time on task is long. Two modifications of the signal detection theory framework are considered to account for this seemingly paradoxical result. The first assumes that the signal rate affects the relative sizes of the variances of the information distributions; the second assumes that the signal rate affects the logic of the operator's stopping rule. Actual or potential applications of this research include the improved training and performance assessment of operators in areas such as product quality control, air traffic control, and medical and clinical diagnosis.

Balakrishnan, J. D.↗

Risk Reduction on X-33/RLV Engines

Risk management has received considerable attention in the X-33 and Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) program due to aggressive schedules, limited funding. and planned private investment to develop the commercial VentureStar vehicle. As an X-33 and RLV team member and main propulsion supplier, Boeing Rocketdyn Propulsion and Power has addressed risk through a methodical application of systems engineering in identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks. The methods employed involve rigorous risk mitigation planning early in development, continuous risk monitoring and assessment during the course of development, and the systematic verification of compliance with technical requirements prior to delivery. In addition, an engine system reliability analysis was conducted to reduce risk. In July 1996, NASA selected Lockheed Martin's "Skunk Works" (LMSW) as the lead contractor for the X-33 and RLV program. The X-33 vehicle is a half-scale pathfinder for the full-scale RLV. The LMSW RLV design is a lifting body shaped vehicle employing linear aerospike engine provided propulsion. The initial X-33 flight is planned for the summer of 2000, and the initial VentureStar flight is planned for between 2005 and 2007.

Crowley, Tim↗

Comprehensive Design Reliability Activities for Aerospace Propulsion Systems

This technical publication describes the methodology, model, software tool, input data, and analysis result that support aerospace design reliability studies. The focus of these activities is on propulsion systems mechanical design reliability. The goal of these activities is to support design from a reliability perspective. Paralleling performance analyses in schedule and method, this requires the proper use of metrics in a validated reliability model useful for design, sensitivity, and trade studies. Design reliability analysis in this view is one of several critical design functions. A design reliability method is detailed and two example analyses are provided-one qualitative and the other quantitative. The use of aerospace and commercial data sources for quantification is discussed and sources listed. A tool that was developed to support both types of analyses is presented. Finally, special topics discussed include the development of design criteria, issues of reliability quantification, quality control, and reliability verification.

Christenson, R. L.↗

Zero Boil Off Cryogen Storage for Future Launchers

Zero boil off (ZBO) cryogen storage using both cryocoolers and passive insulation technologies will enable long-term exploration missions by allowing designers to optimize tankage without the need for excess cryogen storage to account for boil off. Studies of ZBO (zero boil off) have been on-going in the USA for several years. More recently, a review of the needs of advanced space propulsion took place in Europe. This showed the interest of the European community in cryogenic propulsion for planetary missions as well as the use of liquid hydrogen for large power electric propulsion (manned Mars missions). Although natural boiling could be acceptable for single leg missions, passive insulation techniques yield roughly a I% per month cryogen loss and this would not be cost effective for robotic planetary missions involving storage times greater than one year. To make economic sense, long-term exploration missions require lower tank capacity and longer storage times. Recent advances in cryocooler technology, resulting in vast improvements in both cooler efficiency and reliability, make ZBO is a clear choice for planetary exploration missions. Other, more near term applications of ZBO include boil-off reduction or elimination applied to first and upper stages of future earth-to-orbit (ETO) launchers. This would extend launch windows and reduce infrastructure costs. Successors to vehicles like Ariane 5 could greatly benefit by implementing ZBO. Zero Boil Off will only be successful in ETO launcher applications if it makes economic sense to implement. The energy cost is only a fraction of the total cost of buying liquid cryogen, the rest being transportation and other overhead. Because of this, higher boiling point cryogens will benefit more from on-board liquefaction, thus reducing the infrastructure costs. Since hydrogen requires a liquefier with at least a 17% efficiency just to break even from a cost standpoint, one approach for implementing ZBO in upper stages would be to actively cool the shield in the hydrogen tank to reduce the parasitic losses. This would allow the use of less expensive, presently available coolers (80 K vs. 20 K) and potentially simplify the system by requiring only a single compressor on the pad amd a single disconnect line. The compressor could be a hefty commercial unit, with only the cold head requiring expensive flight development and qualification. While this is actually a reduced boil off configuration rather than a zero-boil off case, if the cryogen loss could be cut significantly, the increase in hold time and reduced need for draining and refilling the propellant tanks could meet the vehicle operations needs in the majority of instances.Bearing in mind the potential benefits of ZBO, NASA AMES and SNECMA Moteurs decided to exchange their technical views on the subject. This paper will present a preliminary analysis for a multi-mission module using a fairly low thrust cryogenic engine and ZBO during cruise. Initial mass is 5.5. tons (in ETO). The cryogenic engine will be used near each periapsis in order to minimize the AV requirement. The payload obtained by this propulsion system is compared to a classical storable bipropellant propulsion system for several cases (e. g. Mars lander, Jupiter orbiter, Saturn orbiter). For the Jupiter and Saturn cases, the power source could be an RTG or a large parabolic mirror illuminating a solar panel. It is shown -that - due to its much larger specific impulse - the cryogenic ZBO solution provides much higher payloads, especially for exploration missions involving landing on planets, asteroids, comets, or other celestial bodies.

Valentian, D.↗

User Evaluation of the NASA Technical Report Server Recommendation Service

We present the user evaluation of two recommendation server methodologies implemented for the NASA Technical Report Server (NTRS). One methodology for generating recommendations uses log analysis to identify co-retrieval events on full-text documents. For comparison, we used the Vector Space Model (VSM) as the second methodology. We calculated cosine similarities and used the top 10 most similar documents (based on metadata) as 'recommendations'. We then ran an experiment with NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) staff members to gather their feedback on which method produced the most 'quality' recommendations. We found that in most cases VSM outperformed log analysis of co-retrievals. However, analyzing the data revealed the evaluations may have been structurally biased in favor of the VSM generated recommendations. We explore some possible methods for combining log analysis and VSM generated recommendations and suggest areas of future work.

Nelson, Michael L.↗

User Evaluation of the NASA Technical Report Server Recommendation Service

We present the user evaluation of two recommendation server methodologies implemented for the NASA Technical Report Server (NTRS). One methodology for generating recommendations uses log analysis to identify co-retrieval events on full-text documents. For comparison, we used the Vector Space Model (VSM) as the second methodology. We calculated cosine similarities and used the top 10 most similar documents (based on metadata) as recommendations . We then ran an experiment with NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) staff members to gather their feedback on which method produced the most quality recommendations. We found that in most cases VSM outperformed log analysis of co-retrievals. However, analyzing the data revealed the evaluations may have been structurally biased in favor of the VSM generated recommendations. We explore some possible methods for combining log analysis and VSM generated recommendations and suggest areas of future work.

Nelson, Michael L.↗

Outstanding Research Issues in Systematic Technology Prioritization for New Space Missions: Workshop Proceedings

A workshop entitled, "Outstanding Research Issues in Systematic Technology Prioritization for New Space Missions," was convened on April 21-22, 2004 in San Diego, California to review the status of methods for objective resource allocation, to discuss the research barriers remaining, and to formulate recommendations for future development and application. The workshop explored the state-of-the-art in decision analysis in the context of being able to objectively allocate constrained technical resources to enable future space missions and optimize science return. This article summarizes the highlights of the meeting results.

Weisbin, C. R.↗

The Mercury-Redstone Program

The Mercury-Redstone program is reviewed as to its intended mission and its main results. The progressive results of unmanned, animal, and manned flights of this over-all Project Mercury ballistic training program are presented. A technical description of the major spacecraft systems is presented with some analysis of flight performance. Performance of the spacecraft with and without pilot input is discussed. The influence of the astronaut as an operating link in the over-all system is presented, and relative difficulties of manned versus unmanned flight are briefly commented upon. The program provided information on man as an integral part of a space flight system, demonstrating that man can assume a primary role in space as he does in other realms of flight. The Mercury-Redstone program demonstrated that the Mercury spacecraft was capable of manned space flight, and succeeded in partially qualifying the spacecraft for orbital flight.

Hammack, Jerome B.↗

Solar Irradiance and Thermospheric Airglow Rocket Experiments

This report describes work done in support of the Solar Irradiance and Thermospheric Air-glow Rocket Experiments at the University of Colorado for NASA grant NAG5-5021 under the direction of Dr. Stanley C. Solomon. (The overall rocket program is directed by Dr. Thomas N. Woods, formerly at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and now also at the University of Colorado, for NASA grant NAG5-5141.) Grant NAG5-5021 provided assistance to the overall program through analysis of airglow and solar data, support of two graduate students, laboratory technical services, and field support. The general goals of the rocket program were to measure the solar extreme ultraviolet spectral irradiance, measure the terrestrial far-ultraviolet airglow, and analyze their relationship at various levels of solar activity, including near solar minimum. These have been met, as shown below. In addition, we have used the attenuation of solar radiation as the rocket descends through the thermosphere to measure density changes. This work demonstrates the maturity of the observational and modeling methods connecting energetic solar photon fluxes and airglow emissions through the processes of photoionization and photoelectron production and loss. Without a simultaneous photoelectron measurement, some aspects of this relationship remain obscure, and there are still questions pertaining to cascade contributions to molecular and atomic airglow emissions. However, by removing the solar irradiance as an "adjustable parameter" in the analysis, significant progress has been made toward understanding the relationship of far-ultraviolet airglow emissions to the solar and atmospheric conditions that control them.

Solomon, Stanley C.↗

Technical Basis Related to the Posture of NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance for the Launch of Radioactive Material Other than Space Nuclear Systems: Volume 1–Overview of Analysis and Results

NASA has launched and reentered payloads containing radioactive material for over 50 years. The isotopes, their quantity, and their form have varied significantly. The handling of this material prior to its integration into the spacecraft at the launch Center (and after its return to Earth after flight, if applicable) falls under the purview of the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer, while after the radioactive material is integrated into the spacecraft at the launch Center, it falls under the purview of the Office of Safety and Mission Assurance’s (OSMA) Nuclear Flight Safety Program. Historically, OSMA concurrence was required for any launch or reentry involving radioactive material. However, OSMA recently revisited this posture due to changes in the Federal policy in this area, and the significant accrued experience. The current report represents the more quantitative study envisioned in the recent change in posture. More specifically, this document addresses the potential risks and other considerations associated with launching small quantities of radioactive material (below the level requiring the Federally-mandated process in National Security Presidential Memorandum- (NSPM-) 20, “Presidential Memorandum on Launch of Spacecraft Containing Space Nuclear Systems” (USG, 2019) to provide the technical basis for when such activities require OSMA concurrence versus notification, as it relates to nuclear flight safety.

Don Helton↗