Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “uncertainty characterization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainties for Pre- and Post-Launch Radiometric Calibration of Imaging Spectrometers for Multi-Sensor Applications

An important aspect to using imaging spectrometer data is the radiometric characterization and calibration of the sensors and validation of their data products and doing so with error budgets with known traceability. The radiometric accuracy of a given sensor is important for demonstrating the expected quality of data from the sensor. Known traceability allows data from multiple sensors to be directly comparable as will become more important in the near future with the expected launches of multiple imaging spectrometers from multiple countries, agencies, and commercial entities. The current work describes the state of pre- and post-launch radiometric absolute and relative uncertainties and their role in harmonising on-orbit data. Examples of prelaunch uncertainties based on the calibration of EnMAP and the calibration planned for the CLARREO Pathfinder Mission are presented highlighting recent work in the area of detector-based approaches using tunable laser sources. Post-launch calibration approaches for Pathfinder, EnMAP, CHIME, and DESIS including traditional vicarious calibration methods and the challenges of working with commercial data are presented. The vicarious calibration discussion relies on the example of the recently-available RadCalNet data to describe typical methods and challenges that will be faced when harmonising data between imaging spectrometers as well as with multispectral sensors.

Thome, K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Use of Compton suppression gamma ray spectrometry to determine 239 Pu

We report 239 Pu has been characterized by gamma-ray spectroscopy for a level higher than the usual environmental ones typically needing alpha spectrometry, ICP-MS or TIMS. The higher activities typically have applications in reprocessing, safeguards verification, and nuclear forensics. For activities of hundreds of Bq/g, it is possible to use gamma ray spectrometry for 239 Pu characterization. A soil reference standard of 185 Bq/g (75 ng/g) was measured on a 79% efficient HPGe with a digital Compton suppression system. The ratios of the counting statistics for suppressed and unsuppressed uncertainties for various 239 Pu photopeaks were determined. The effects of self-attenuation on the low energy gamma rays were evaluated, and it was determined that Compton suppression was an effective characterization method of 239 Pu after accounting for self-attenuation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Raman Spectroscopy Based On-Line, Real-Time Monitoring to Reduce Composition Uncertainties: Enhanced sensitivity through optimization of Raman Parameters

Optical spectroscopy-based on-line monitoring of Hanford processing streams can enable real-time characterization of chemical composition of process streams and batches, ultimately enabling and enhancing process control. It can provide immediate feedback on process conditions and has the potential to reduce the needed number of grab sample collections, thereby reducing times and costs associated with laboratory processing. Here we discuss the utilization of Raman spectroscopy to quantify multiple target analytes that are common within Hanford tanks and waste processing streams. Analytes include: nitrate, nitrite, carbonate, chromate, sulfate, phosphate, hydroxide, oxalate, ammonia, and aluminate. Most notably in this work, Raman applications to low-concentration streams are explored and optimized. Raman instrument specifications are compared; specifically, the impact of utilizing three different Raman excitation wavelengths, 405, 532, and 671 nm, is discussed. Also, Raman data collection parameters such as collection time and spectral averaging are measured and discussed. Finally, optical libraries of chemical targets were collected using optimized collection parameters and chemometric models were built to automate quantification of chemical targets. These models were validated through application to simulants and real Hanford process samples. Chemometric models performed well on both training and validation sets, suggesting these approaches can be successfully applied to on-line and real-time monitoring of low concentration Hanford processing streams. The use of the combine Raman wave lengths with the enhanced chemometric models for the low concentration streams significantly improved the chemical detection levels and significantly reduced uncertainties of those measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Differential Yields and Uncertainty Assessments for Electric Propulsion Plume Impingement Sputter Redeposition Contamination

Redeposition of sputtered erosion products from electric propulsion plume impingement is a contamination concern for spacecraft. Calculation of expected deposition quantities requires accurate characterization of the angular distribution of differential yields. An evaluation of available expressions is performed as well as a derivation of an alternate form that can better match experimental measurements through more general inclusion of anisotropic effects. The derivation is extended to the dependence of the total yield on incident angle. Considerations of the inherent uncertainty in both total and differential yields and accounting of subsequent margins for end applications are also discussed.

sputtering↗
NASA NTRS1984

Relative Radiometric Calibration of LANDSAT TM Reflective Bands

The characterization of the relative radiometric calibration of the protoflight Thematic Mapper sensor (TM/PF) is considered with focus on the variability and uncertainty of TM relative radiometry, including total variability as well as its systematic and random components. Emphasis is placed on identifying the magnitude and types of systematic errors, since these have the potential for being reduced during ground processing. Estimates of innate random variability, such as the standard deviation of a signal or its signal to noise ratio, are also important. The processing effects of radiometry are explored. Recommendations are given for engineering characterization, flight segment operations and ground processing.

Barker, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Characterization of Thermal Parameters for Improving Pyranometer and Pyrgeometer Measurements

Since the introduction of thermopile, pyranometers (solar, e.g., 0.3-3.0 micrometers) and pyrgeometers (terrestrial, e.g., 4-50 micrometers) have become instruments commonly used for measuring the broadband hemispherical irradiances at the surface in a long-term, monitoring mode for decades. These commercially available radiometers have been manufactured in several countries such as from the United States, Asia, and Europe, and are generally reliable and economical. These worldwide distributions of surface measurements become even more important in the era of Earth remote sensing in studying climate change. However, recent studies from field campaigns have pointed out that erroneous factors (e.g., temperature gradients between the filter dome and detector, emissivity of the thermopile) are responsible for the unacceptable level of uncertainty (e.g., 20 W m(exp -2)). Using a newly developed instrument of Quantum Well Infrared Photodetector (QWTP), we have characterized the brightness temperature fields of pyranometers and pyrgeometers under various sky conditions. The QWIP is based on the superlattice (GaAs/AlGaAs) technology and has a noise equivalent temperature (NEAT) less than 0.1 K. The quality of pyranometer and pyrgeometer measure- ments can be improved largely by applying proper knowledge of the thermal parameters affecting the operation of the thermopile systems. Data correction procedure and algorithm will be presented and discussed.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗
NASA NTRS1999

Improvement of TOPEX/POSEIDON and Jason-1 Geophysical Data Record for Global Change Studies and Coastal Applications

The Earth's modem climate change has been characterized by interlinked changes in temperature, CO2, ice sheets and sea level. Global sea level change is a critical indicator for study of contemporary climate change. Sea level rise appears to have accelerated since the ice sheet retreats have stopped some 5000 years ago and it is estimated that the sea level rise has been approx. 15 cm over the last century. Contemporary radar altimeters represent the only technique capable of monitoring global sea level change with accuracy approaching 1 mm/yr and with a temporal scale of days and a spatial scale of 100 km or longer. This report highlights the major accomplishments of the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) Extended Mission and Jason-1 science investigation. The primary objectives of the investigation include the calibration and improvement of T/P and Jason-1 altimeter data for global sea level change and coastal tide and circulation studies. The scientific objectives of the investigation include: (1) the calibration and improvement of T/P and Jason-1 data as a reference measurement system for the accurate cross-linking with other altimeter systems (Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1, ERS-2, GFO-1, and Envisat), (2) the improved determination and the associated uncertainties of the long-term (15-year) global mean sea level change using multiple altimeters, (3) the characterization of the sea level change by analyses of independent data, including tide gauges, sea surface temperature, and (4) the improvement coastal radar altimetry for studies including coastal ocean tide modeling and coastal circulation. Major accomplishments of the investigation include the development of techniques for low-cost radar altimeter absolute calibration (including the associated GPS-buoy technology), coastal ocean tide modeling, and the linking of multiple altimeter systems and the resulting determination of the 15-year (1985-1999) global mean sea level variations. The current rate of 15-year sea level rise observed by multiple satellite altimetry is +2.3 +/- 1.2 mm/yr, which is in general agreement with the analysis of sparsely distributed tide gauge measurements for the same data span, and represents the first such determination of sea level change in its kind.

Shum, C. K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A framework for detection and attribution of regional precipitation change: Application to the United States historical record

Abstract Despite the emerging influence of anthropogenic climate change on the global water cycle, at regional scales the combination of observational uncertainty, large internal variability, and modeling uncertainty undermine robust statements regarding the human influence on precipitation. Here, we use output from global climate models in a perfect-data sense to develop a framework for conducting regional detection and attribution (D&A) for precipitation, starting with the contiguous United States (CONUS) where observational uncertainty is lower than in other regions. Our unified approach can simultaneously detect systematic trends in mean and extreme precipitation, attribute trends to anthropogenic forcings, compute the effects of forcings as a function of time, and map the effects of individual forcings. Model output is used to conduct a set of tests that yield a parsimonious representation for characterizing seasonal precipitation over the CONUS for the historical record (1900 to present day), which ensures our D&A is insensitive to structural uncertainty. Our framework is developed using synthetic data in a Pearl-causal perspective wherein causality can be identified using intervention-based simulations. While the hypothesis-based framework and accompanying generalized D&A formula we develop should be widely applicable, we include a strong caution that the hypothesis-guided simplification of the formula for the historical climatic record of CONUS as described in this paper will likely fail to hold in other geographic regions and under future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Method of Distributions for Two‐Phase Flow in Heterogeneous Porous Media

Abstract Multiscale heterogeneity and insufficient characterization data for a specific subsurface formation of interest render predictions of multi‐phase fluid flow in geologic formations highly uncertain. Quantification of the uncertainty propagation from the geomodel to the fluid‐flow response is typically done within a probabilistic framework. This task is computationally demanding due to, for example, the slow convergence of Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), especially when computing the tails of a distribution that are necessary for risk assessment and decision‐making under uncertainty. The frozen streamlines method (FROST) accelerates probabilistic predictions of immiscible two‐phase fluid flow problems; however, FROST relies on MCS to compute the travel‐time distribution, which is then used to perform the transport (phase saturation) computations. To alleviate this computational bottleneck, we replace MCS with a deterministic equation for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of travel time. The resulting CDF‐FROST approach yields the CDF of the saturation field without resorting to sampling‐based strategies. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the high accuracy of CDF‐FROST in computing the CDFs of both saturation and travel time. For the same accuracy, it is about 5 and 10 times faster than FROST and MCS, respectively.

Yang, Hyung Jun↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploiting 20 Ne Isotopes for Precision Characterizations of Collectivity in Small Systems

Whether or not femto-scale droplets of quark-gluon plasma (QGP) are formed in so-called small systems at high-energy colliders is a pressing question in the phenomenology of the strong interaction. For proton-proton or proton-nucleus collisions the answer is inconclusive due to the large theoretical uncertainties plaguing the description of these processes. While upcoming data on collisions of 16 O nuclei may mitigate these uncertainties in the near future, here we demonstrate the unique possibilities offered by complementing 16 O + 16 O data with collisions of 20 Ne ions. We couple both nuclear lattice effective field theory (NLEFT) and projected generator coordinate method (PGCM) ab initio descriptions of the structure of 20 Ne and 16 O to hydrodynamic simulations of 16 O + 16 O and 20 Ne + 20 Ne collisions at high energy. We isolate the imprints of the bowling-pin shape of 20 Ne on the collective flow of hadrons, which can be used to perform quantitative tests of the hydrodynamic QGP paradigm. In particular, we predict that the elliptic flow of 20 Ne + 20 Ne collisions is enhanced by as much as 1.174⁢(8) stat ⁢(31) syst for NLEFT and 1.139⁢(6) stat ⁢(39) syst for PGCM relative to 16 O + 16 O collisions for the 1% most central events. At the same time, theoretical uncertainties largely cancel when studying relative variations of observables between two systems. This demonstrates a method based on experiments with two light-ion species for precision characterizations of the collective dynamics and its emergence in a small system.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DEEPEN: Final 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

Part of the DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology, detailed in the journal article below, is based on the method proposed by Poux & O'brien (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., (2022). For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2008

Dynamic Method for Identifying Collected Sample Mass

G-Sample is designed for sample collection missions to identify the presence and quantity of sample material gathered by spacecraft equipped with end effectors. The software method uses a maximum-likelihood estimator to identify the collected sample's mass based on onboard force-sensor measurements, thruster firings, and a dynamics model of the spacecraft. This makes sample mass identification a computation rather than a process requiring additional hardware. Simulation examples of G-Sample are provided for spacecraft model configurations with a sample collection device mounted on the end of an extended boom. In the absence of thrust knowledge errors, the results indicate that G-Sample can identify the amount of collected sample mass to within 10 grams (with 95-percent confidence) by using a force sensor with a noise and quantization floor of 50 micrometers. These results hold even in the presence of realistic parametric uncertainty in actual spacecraft inertia, center-of-mass offset, and first flexibility modes. Thrust profile knowledge is shown to be a dominant sensitivity for G-Sample, entering in a nearly one-to-one relationship with the final mass estimation error. This means thrust profiles should be well characterized with onboard accelerometers prior to sample collection. An overall sample-mass estimation error budget has been developed to approximate the effect of model uncertainty, sensor noise, data rate, and thrust profile error on the expected estimate of collected sample mass.

Carson, John↗
NASA NTRS2022

Defining Pupil Knowledge Requirements for Roman Space Telescope Integrated Payload Assembly Testing

This thesis examines the use of phase retrieval to characterize an optical system under testing conditions with pupil knowledge error. The purpose of this research is to define pupil knowledge requirements for the integrated payload testing of the Roman Space Telescope (RST). I have conducted a Monte Carlo study to determine how uncertainty in the location of the ground support equipment relative to the payload will affect the ability to use image-based wavefront sensing during the test to characterize system alignment. This test will be conducted in the Space Environment Simulator (SES) with the presence of Wavefront Error (WFE) due to gravity sag on the primary mirror. In this study, I incrementally decentered a piece of ground support equipment, the SubAperture Metrology System (SAMS), and evaluated how the phase retrieval algorithm attempted to fit the wavefront with the pupil mismatch. The results of this study are a factor in the overall Integrated Payload Assembly (IPA) testing WFE budget.

Roman Space Telescope↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conditional Pseudo-Reversible Normalizing Flow for Surrogate Modeling in Quantifying Uncertainty Propagation

We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow (PR-NF) that directly learns conditional probability distributions from noisy physical models to efficiently quantify both forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Traditional surrogate modeling approaches approximate only the deterministic component of physical models, requiring separate noise characterization and computationally expensive sampling methods for inverse problems. Here, in this work, we develop the conditional PR-NF model to directly learn and efficiently generate samples from the conditional probability density functions (PDFs). The training process utilizes dataset consisting of input-output pairs without requiring prior knowledge about the noise and the function. Once trained, our model efficiently generates samples from conditional PDFs for any input within the training domain. Moreover, the pseudo-reversibility feature allows for the use of fully connected neural network architectures, which simplifies the implementation and enables theoretical analysis. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the conditional PR-NF model, showing its ability to converge to the target conditional PDF using the Kullback−Leibler divergence. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we apply it to several benchmark tests and a real-world geologic carbon storage problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1993

On the estimation algorithm for adaptive performance optimization of turbofan engines

The performance seeking control (PSC) algorithm is designed to continuously optimize the performance of propulsion systems. The PSC algorithm uses a nominal propulsion system model and estimates, in flight, the engine deviation parameters (EDPs) characterizing the engine deviations with respect to nominal conditions. In practice, because of measurement biases and/or model uncertainties, the estimated EDPs may not reflect the engine's actual off-nominal condition. This factor has a direct impact on the PSC scheme exacerbated by the open-loop character of the algorithm. In this paper, the effects produced by unknown measurement biases over the estimation algorithm are evaluated. This evaluation allows for identification of the most critical measurements for application of the PSC algorithm to an F100 engine. An equivalence relation between the biases and EDPs stems from the analysis; therefore, it is undecided whether the estimated EDPs represent the actual engine deviation or whether they simply reflect the measurement biases. A new algorithm, based on the engine's (steady-state) optimization model, is proposed and tested with flight data. When compared with previous Kalman filter schemes, based on local engine dynamic models, the new algorithm is easier to design and tune and it reduces the computational burden of the onboard computer.

Espana, Martin D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

On the estimation algorithm used in adaptive performance optimization of turbofan engines

The performance seeking control algorithm is designed to continuously optimize the performance of propulsion systems. The performance seeking control algorithm uses a nominal model of the propulsion system and estimates, in flight, the engine deviation parameters characterizing the engine deviations with respect to nominal conditions. In practice, because of measurement biases and/or model uncertainties, the estimated engine deviation parameters may not reflect the engine's actual off-nominal condition. This factor has a necessary impact on the overall performance seeking control scheme exacerbated by the open-loop character of the algorithm. The effects produced by unknown measurement biases over the estimation algorithm are evaluated. This evaluation allows for identification of the most critical measurements for application of the performance seeking control algorithm to an F100 engine. An equivalence relation between the biases and engine deviation parameters stems from an observability study; therefore, it is undecided whether the estimated engine deviation parameters represent the actual engine deviation or whether they simply reflect the measurement biases. A new algorithm, based on the engine's (steady-state) optimization model, is proposed and tested with flight data. When compared with previous Kalman filter schemes, based on local engine dynamic models, the new algorithm is easier to design and tune and it reduces the computational burden of the onboard computer.

Espana, Martin D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Validation of MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth Retrieval Over Land

Aerosol optical depths are derived operationally for the first time over land in the visible wavelengths by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) onboard the EOSTerra spacecraft. More than 300 Sun photometer data points from more than 30 AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) sites globally were used in validating the aerosol optical depths obtained during July - September 2000. Excellent agreement is found with retrieval errors within (Delta)tau=+/- 0.05 +/- 0.20 tau, as predicted, over (partially) vegetated surfaces, consistent with pre-launch theoretical analysis and aircraft field experiments. In coastal and semi-arid regions larger errors are caused predominantly by the uncertainty in evaluating the surface reflectance. The excellent fit was achieved despite the ongoing improvements in instrument characterization and calibration. This results show that MODIS-derived aerosol optical depths can be used quantitatively in many applications with cautions for residual clouds, snow/ice, and water contamination.

Chu, D. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

X-57 Ground Dynamics Modeling and Analysis

This paper presents simulation work to assess the ground handling behavior of the X-57 airplane, prior to its first flight under electric propulsion. A tire deformation model was fit to manufacturer ground testing data to develop a detailed simulation model of previously unmodeled rolling drag forces on the tires. A special modeling effort corrected for a difference between the runway surface in the manufacturer data (grass) and in intended X-57 surface operations (asphalt/concrete). Analysis based on variation in the test conditions of the manufacturer test data showed that uncertainty in the new estimated rolling drag model should lead to no more than 1.5-percent uncertainty in the takeoff acceleration. Another batch simulation series swept across ground operating conditions and airplane configurations, characterizing turning radii and roll angles experienced for different open-loop steering commands in these various situations. This simulation allowed the identification of ground handling characteristics even beyond the regime of normal operations. As part of this task, a new, modified variant of the Fibonacci search algorithm identified the correct steering inputs for maintaining a straight path as a function of the operating condition. Finally, this paper describes a fixed-base piloted simulator assessment. This assessment supplements the previous simulated ground dynamics data with pilot-in-the-loop data and pilot feedback and confirms the overall acceptability of the ground handling qualities of the X-57 airplane prior to first flight.

Loren J. Newton↗