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DOE OSTI2020

Impurity lattice Monte Carlo for hypernuclei

Abstract We consider the problem of including $$\varLambda $$ Λ hyperons into the ab initio framework of nuclear lattice effective field theory. In order to avoid large sign oscillations in Monte Carlo simulations, we make use of the fact that the number of hyperons is typically small compared to the number of nucleons in the hypernuclei of interest. This allows us to use the impurity lattice Monte Carlo method, where the minority species of fermions in the full nuclear Hamiltonian is integrated out and treated as a worldline in Euclidean projection time. The majority fermions (nucleons) are treated as explicit degrees of freedom, with their mutual interactions described by auxiliary fields. This is the first application of the impurity lattice Monte Carlo method to systems where the majority particles are interacting. Here, we show how the impurity Monte Carlo method can be applied to compute the binding energies of the light hypernuclei. In this exploratory work we use spin-independent nucleon–nucleon and hyperon–nucleon interactions to test the computational power of the method. We find that the computational effort scales approximately linearly in the number of nucleons. The results are very promising for future studies of larger hypernuclear systems using chiral effective field theory and realistic hyperon–nucleon interactions, as well as applications to other quantum many-body systems.

Frame, Dillon↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demonstration of Monte Carlo Reference Equilibrium Core Solutions for Pebble Bed Reactors Using Shift in kugelpy

This report describes how to produce reference solutions for the equilibrium core search of pebble bed reactors using the pyrates Python library. The pyrates library uses the kugelpy methodology to perform running-in calculations to reach an equilibrium core. This approach relies on full-core Monte Carlo neutron transport calculations and the shifting of fuel pebble inventory through the reactor to simulate pebble movement in the core from one step to the next of a running-in scenario. In addition to the use of Serpent for the Monte Carlo neutron transport calculations, as part of this work, updates for the use of the Shift Monte Carlo code were integrated into the official pyrates GitHub repository. Comparisons of running-in simulations for a generic pebble bed reactor produced by using pyrates with Serpent and Shift are shown. Although consistent trends are shown between the use of the two Monte Carlo codes, the limiting factor in either calculation is the computation time due to the need to perform several hundred full-core neutron transport calculations before an equilibrium core is reached.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demonstration of Monte Carlo Reference Equilibrium Core Solutions for Pebble Bed Reactors Using Shift in kugelpy

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Monte-Carlo Neutrino Transport in Neutron Star Merger Simulations

Gravitational waves and electromagnetic signals from merging neutron star binaries provide valuable information about the the properties of dense matter, the formation of heavy elements, and high-energy astrophysics. To fully leverage observations of these systems, we need numerical simulations that provide reliable predictions for the properties of the matter unbound in these mergers. An important limitation of current simulations is the use of approximate methods for neutrino transport that do not converge to a solution of the transport equations as numerical resolution increases, and thus have errors that are impossible to quantify. Here, we report on a first simulation of a binary neutron star merger that directly solves the transport equations using Monte-Carlo techniques. We demonstrate that a computationally cheap Monte-Carlo transport can be implemented without ill effects from sampling noise. We apply Monte-Carlo transport to an unequal mass neutron star binary merger up to 5ms past merger, and report on the properties of the matter and neutrino outflows. Finally, we compare our results to the output of our best approximate `M1' transport scheme, demonstrating that an M1 scheme that carefully approximates the neutrino energy spectrum only leads to ~10% uncertainty in the composition and velocity of the ejecta, and ~20% uncertainty in the electron (anti)neutrino luminosities and energies. Here, the most significant disagreement found between M1 and Monte-Carlo results is a factor of ~2 difference in the luminosity of heavy-lepton neutrinos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

On the Statistical Uncertainty of Monte Carlo-Calculated Scattering Sensitivities

Sensitivity coefficients calculated with Monte Carlo codes are widely used for nuclear data uncertainty quantification in the modeling and simulation of complex 3D reactor systems. This study systematically compares sensitivity coefficients and associated statistical uncertainties for the multiplication factor and fuel temperature reactivity across multiple Monte Carlo codes (SCALE/KENO, SCALE/Shift, MCNP, and Serpent) using simple models representing light-water reactors and advanced reactor concepts. For multiplication factor sensitivities, statistical uncertainties are generally acceptable, although scattering sensitivities show significantly larger statistical uncertainties than, for example, fission and capture reactions. Fuel temperature reactivity sensitivities show significantly larger statistical uncertainties across all reactions. Elastic scattering sensitivities are the most problematic: all Monte Carlo codes fail to resolve energy-dependent coefficients, and they produce dramatically different energy-collapsed values. Critically, the use of these sensitivity coefficients in nuclear data uncertainty propagation leads to reduced statistical uncertainties in individual uncertainty contributions. This can lead to the masking of unusable sensitivity coefficients and producing misleading uncertainty results. The findings of this study show that new or enhanced methods are needed to improve Monte Carlo elastic scattering sensitivity calculations. Additionally, this study shows the relevance of verifying sensitivity coefficients through direct perturbation calculations for individual nuclide reactions, instead of only for total cross sections as commonly done.

Bostelmann, Rike [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000165968088)↗

NASA NTRS1972

A modified Monte Carlo model for the ionospheric heating rates

A Monte Carlo method is adopted as a basis for the derivation of the photoelectron heat input into the ionospheric plasma. This approach is modified in an attempt to minimize the computation time. The heat input distributions are computed for arbitrarily small source elements that are spaced at distances apart corresponding to the photoelectron dissipation range. By means of a nonlinear interpolation procedure their individual heating rate distributions are utilized to produce synthetic ones that fill the gaps between the Monte Carlo generated distributions. By varying these gaps and the corresponding number of Monte Carlo runs the accuracy of the results is tested to verify the validity of this procedure. It is concluded that this model can reduce the computation time by more than a factor of three, thus improving the feasibility of including Monte Carlo calculations in self-consistent ionosphere models.

Mayr, H. G.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Geology of Maxwell Montes, Venus

Maxwell Montes represent the most distinctive topography on the surface of Venus, rising some 11 km above mean planetary radius. The multiple data sets of the Pioneer missing and Earth based radar observations to characterize Maxwell Montes are analyzed. Maxwell Montes is a porkchop shaped feature located at the eastern end of Lakshmi Planum. The main massif trends about North 20 deg West for approximately 1000 km and the narrow handle extends several hundred km West South-West WSW from the north end of the main massif, descending down toward Lakshmi Planum. The main massif is rectilinear and approximately 500 km wide. The southern and northern edges of Maxwell Montes coincide with major topographic boundaries defining the edge of Ishtar Terra.

Head, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Structural history of Maxwell Montes, Venus: Implications for Venusian mountain belt formation

Models for Venusian mountain belt formation are important for understanding planetary geodynamic mechanisms. A range of data sets at various scales must be considered in geodynamic modelling. Long wavelength data, such as gravity and geoid to topography ratios, need constraints from smaller-scale observations of the surface. Pre-Magellan images of the Venusian surface were not of high enough resolution to observe details of surface deformation. High-resolution Magellan images of Maxwell Montes and the other deformation belts allow us to determine the nature of surface deformation. With these images we can begin to understand the constraints that surface deformation places on planetary dynamic models. Maxwell Montes and three other deformation belts (Akna, Freyja, and Danu montes) surround the highland plateau Lakshmi Planum in Venus' northern hemisphere. Maxwell, the highest of these belts, stands 11 km above mean planetary radius. We present a detailed structural and kinematic study of Maxwell Montes. Key observations include (1) dominant structure fabrics are broadly distributed and show little change in spacing relative to elevation changes of several kilometers; (2) the spacing, wavelength and inferred amplitude of mapped structures are small; (3) interpreted extensional structures occur only in areas of steep slope, with no extension at the highest topographic levels; and (4) deformation terminates abruptly at the base of steep slopes. One implications of these observations is that topography is independent of thin-skinned, broadly distributed, Maxwell deformation. Maxwell is apparently stable, with no observed extensional collapse. We propose a 'deformation-from-below' model for Maxwell, in which the crust deforms passively over structurally imbricated and thickened lower crust. This model may have implications for the other deformation belts.

Keep, Myra↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Monte Carlo Dispersion Analysis of the X-33 Simulation Software

A Monte Carlo dispersion analysis has been completed on the X-33 software simulation. The simulation is based on a preliminary version of the software and is primarily used in an effort to define and refine how a Monte Carlo dispersion analysis would have been done on the final flight-ready version of the software. This report gives an overview of the processes used in the implementation of the dispersions and describes the methods used to accomplish the Monte Carlo analysis. Selected results from 1000 Monte Carlo runs are presented with suggestions for improvements in future work.

Williams, Peggy S.↗

NASA NTRS1961

Application of Monte Carlo Technique for Determining Maneuvering Loads from Statistical Information on Airplane Motions

Results of a statistical analysis of horizontal-tail loads on a fighter airplane are presented. The data were obtained from a number of operational training missions with flight at altitudes up to about 50,000 feet and at Mach numbers up to 1.22. The analysis was performed to determine the feasibility of calculating horizontal-tail load from data on the flight conditions and airplane motions. In the analysis the calculated loads are compared with the measured loads for the different types of missions performed. The loads were calculated by two methods: a direct approach and a Monte Carlo technique. The procedures used and some of the problems associated with the data analysis are discussed. frequencies of occurrence of tail loads of given magnitudes are derived from statistical information on the flight quantities. In the direct method, a time history of tail load is calculated from time-history measurements of the flight quantities. The Monte Carlo method could be useful for extending loads information for design of prospective airplanes . For the Monte Carlo method, the The results indicate that the accuracy of loads, regardless of the method used for calculation, is largely dependent on the knowledge of the pertinent airplane aerodynamic characteristics and center-of-gravity location. In addition, reliable Monte Carlo results require an adequate sample of statistical data and a knowledge of the more important statistical dependencies between the various flight conditions and airplane motions.

Hamer, Harold A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Analysis

This Technical Publication (TP) is meant to address a number of topics related to the application of Monte Carlo simulation to launch vehicle design and requirements analysis. Although the focus is on a launch vehicle application, the methods may be applied to other complex systems as well. The TP is organized so that all the important topics are covered in the main text, and detailed derivations are in the appendices. The TP first introduces Monte Carlo simulation and the major topics to be discussed, including discussion of the input distributions for Monte Carlo runs, testing the simulation, how many runs are necessary for verification of requirements, what to do if results are desired for events that happen only rarely, and postprocessing, including analyzing any failed runs, examples of useful output products, and statistical information for generating desired results from the output data. Topics in the appendices include some tables for requirements verification, derivation of the number of runs required and generation of output probabilistic data with consumer risk included, derivation of launch vehicle models to include possible variations of assembled vehicles, minimization of a consumable to achieve a two-dimensional statistical result, recontact probability during staging, ensuring duplicated Monte Carlo random variations, and importance sampling.

Hanson, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept

Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.

Thipphavong, David↗

NASA NTRS2016

MONTE: the Next Generation of Mission Design and Navigation Software

The Mission Analysis, Operations and Navigation Toolkit Environment (MONTE) is an astrodynamic toolkit produced by the Mission Design and Navigation Software Group at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. It provides a single integrated environment for all phases of deep space and Earth orbiting missions. Capabilities include: trajectory optimization and analysis, operational orbit determination, flight path control, and 2D/3D visualization. MONTE is presented to the user as an importable Python language module. This allows a simple but powerful user interface via CLUI or script. In addition, the Python interface allows MONTE to be used seamlessly with other canonical scientific programming tools such as SciPy, NumPy, and Matplotlib. MONTE is the prime operational orbit determination software for all JPL navigated missions.

Optimization↗

NASA NTRS2020

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (MXMCPy)

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (\mxmc {}) is a software package developed as a general capability for computing the statistics of outputs from an expensive, high-fidelity model by leveraging faster, low-fidelity models for speedup. Motivated by uncertainty propagation problems where classical Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is computationally intractable, various multi-model MC approaches have recently emerged that yield unbiased estimators with significantly reduced variance relative to MC for the same cost. These existing methods include multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC), multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC), and approximate control variates (ACV). Given a fixed computational budget and a collection of models with varying cost/accuracy, each method seeks a sample allocation strategy across the models that results in an estimator with optimal variance reduction. \mxmc {} is a versatile tool that enables convenient access to many existing multi-model MC approaches within one modular and extensible package. With \mxmc {}, users can easily compare existing methods to determine the best choice for their particular problem, while developers have a basis for implementing and sharing new variance reduction approaches. This report introduces the \mxmc {} software, providing a summary of the problem-solving workflow for users as well as a brief overview of the code layout for developers.

Geoffrey F Bomarito↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive, Active Learning, and Multifidelity Monte Carlo Methods in the MOOSE Stochastic Tools Module

MOOSE is an open-source computational platform for constructing multi-physics models and executing them in a massively parallel fashion. It has a stochastic tools module (STM) for forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) and surrogate modeling. This presentation details some recent developments to the STM with respect to the implementation of adaptive, active learning, and multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for forward UQ of computational models. Specifically, the adaptive Monte Carlo methods include Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-driven algorithms like adaptive importance sampling and parallelized subset simulation for statistical QoI estimation, rare events analysis, and stochastic gradient-free optimization. The active learning methods include Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates and their training via Adam optimization, design of acquisition functions, and integration with samplers like Monte Carlo, adaptive importance, and parallelized subset simulation. These active learning methods are also designed to work in a batch mode, wherein, the required calls to the full computational model are executed in parallel whenever a user-specified batch size is met. The multifidelity methods in STM are broadly divided into two categories: hierarchical, where a defined hierarchy exists among the low-fidelity models, and peer, where all the low-fidelity models are treated equally. A GP surrogate is used to learn the differences between the low- and high-fidelity models in both multifidelity categories, and acquisition functions from the active learning classes are used to decide whether to rely on a low-fidelity model or call the expensive high-fidelity model. Alongside the software description and usage, applications are also presented to nuclear engineering computational models including a TRISO nuclear fuel particle, a reactor pressure vessel, and a heat-pipe microreactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deterministic-Monte Carlo Hybrid Methods for Eigenvalue Sensitivity Coefficient Calculations

The TSUNAMI suite within the SCALE code package includes several methods for generating sensitivity data, including multigroup (MG) and continuous-energy (CE) capabilities. For generating sensitivities with CE data, three methods are available in SCALE 6.3.0: (1) the iterated fission probability (IFP) method with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver, (2) IFP with the Shift Monte Carlo transport solver, and (3) the Contributon-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance Characterization (CLUTCH) with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver. Currently, it is difficult to generate accurate sensitivities with large reflectors when using the CLUTCH method, specifically with fissionable and hydrogenous materials. To address this issue, the work presented herein examines a methodology to calculate the adjoint flux externally with the 3D deterministic SN transport code DENOVO in SCALE; the result is then read directly into the CLUTCH-TSUNAMI sequence. This hybridization method replaces the Monte Carlo F*(r) calculation in CLUTCH while still utilizing the forward calculation. The critical benchmark HEU-MET-FAST-028-001 is used to generate sensitivities based on the inability of CLUTCH to generate accurate sensitivities. Results from the hybrid method appear to generate sensitivity values that are in excellent agreement with direct perturbations. Although further testing is needed, the method provides promising results for the development and utility of a hybrid method for use in TSUNAMI.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-level Monte Carlo methods in chemical applications with Lennard-Jones potentials and other landscapes with isolated singularities

We describe and compare outcomes of various Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC) method variants, motivated by the potential of improved computational efficiency over rejection based Monte Carlo, which scales poorly with problem dimension. With an eye toward its application to computational chemical physics, we test MLMC's ability to sample trajectories on two problems — a familiar double-well potential, with known stationary distributions, and a Lennard-Jones solid potential (a Galton Board). By sampling Brownian motion trajectories, we are able to compute expectations of observable averages. These multi-basin potential energy problems capture the essence of the challenges with using MLMC, namely, maintaining correspondence of sample paths as time-resolution is varied. Addressing this challenge properly can lead to MLMC significantly outperforming standard Monte Carlo path sampling. We describe the essence of this problem and suggest strategies that circumvent diverging multilevel sample paths for an important class of problems. In the tests we also compare the computational cost of several, “adaptive,” variants of MLMC. Our results demonstrate that MLMC overcomes the collision, time scale limitation of the more familiar Brownian path MC samplers, and our implementation provides tunable error thresholds, making MLMC a promising candidate for application to larger and more complex molecular systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lefschetz thimble quantum Monte Carlo for spin systems

Monte Carlo simulations are useful tools for modeling quantum systems, but in some cases they suffer from a sign problem, leading to an exponential slow down in their convergence to a value. While solving the sign problem is generically NP hard, many techniques exist for mitigating the sign problem in specific cases; in particular, the technique of deforming the Monte Carlo simulation's plane of integration onto Lefschetz thimbles (complex hypersurfaces of stationary phase) has seen significant success in the context of quantum field theories. We extend this methodology to spin systems by utilizing spin coherent state path integrals to reexpress the spin system's partition function in terms of continuous variables. Using some toy systems, we demonstrate its effectiveness at lessening the sign problem in this setting, despite the fact that the initial mapping to spin coherent states introduces its own sign problem. The standard formulation of the spin coherent path integral is known to make use of uncontrolled approximations; despite this, for large spins they are typically considered to yield accurate results, so it is somewhat surprising that our results show significant systematic errors. Furthermore, possibly of independent interest, our use of Lefschetz thimbles to overcome the intrinsic sign problem in spin coherent state path integral Monte Carlo enables a novel numerical demonstration of a breakdown in the spin coherent path integral.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗