Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “000”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Crowdsourcing the Frontier: Advancing Hybrid Physics‐ML Climate Simulation via a $\$$50,000 Kaggle Competition

Subgrid machine-learning (machine learning [ML]) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and ML researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader ML and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Data sets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global Root Mean Squared Error, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

A low temperature unitized regenerative fuel cell realizing 60% round trip efficiency and 10 000 cycles of durability for energy storage applications

Unitized regenerative fuel cells (URFC) convert electrical energy to and from chemical bonds in hydrogen. URFCs have the potential to provide economical means for efficient long-term, seasonal, energy storage and on-demand conversion back to electrical energy. We first optimize the catalyst layer for discrete electrolyzer and fuel cell and then configure the URFC. The goal is to identify a cost competitive configuration for URFCs, and demonstrate it in terms of upper limit of round trip efficiencies (RTEs). Two possible configurations of URFCs are compared via experiments and techno-economic analysis (TEA), which emphasize the advantages of the unconventional constant-electrode (CE) URFC over the traditional constant-gas (CG) configuration. We also study the stability via accelerated stress tests (ASTs) and demonstrate steady state operation in a daily cycle for day to night energy shifting. From the investigations, the optimum composition of the URFC anode catalyst layer is 90 at% Ir-black balanced by Pt-black for both CE and CG configurations. At 80 °C and 1 A cm -2 , the optimized CE URFC achieves 57% and 60% RTE with air and O 2 as the reductant gases, respectively. We then evaluated the differences in durability using an AST over 10k charge–discharge cycles; the results reveal that the wider potential window at the anode in CE (0.05–1.55 V) has minimal effect on catalyst layer stability compared to CG (0.55–1.55 V). Furthermore, there was no degradation up to the range of 2k–5k cycles; beyond that the fuel cell (discharge) performance degraded while the electrolyzer (charge) performance was still stable. Finally, the observations here indicate substantial potential to employ URFCs as efficient and cost-effective bidirectional energy-conversion devices within energy storage and utilization systems after appropriate technological and operational optimizations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generalized scaling of spin qubit coherence in over 12,000 host materials

Significance Atomic defects in solid-state materials are promising candidates as quantum bits, or qubits. New materials are actively being investigated as hosts for new defect qubits; however, there are no unifying guidelines that can quantitatively predict qubit performance in a new material. One of the most critical property of qubits is their quantum coherence. While cluster correlation expansion (CCE) techniques are useful to simulate the coherence of electron spins in defects, they are computationally expensive to investigate broad classes of stable materials. Using CCE simulations, we reveal a general scaling relation between the electron spin coherence time and the properties of qubit host materials that enables rapid and quantitative exploration of new materials hosting spin defects.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Epitaxial SrTiO 3 films with dielectric constants exceeding 25,000

Significance Semiconductor interfaces are among the most important in use in modern technology. The properties they exhibit can either enable or disable the characteristics of the materials they connect for functional performance. While much is known about important junctions involving conventional semiconductors such as Si and GaAs, there are several unsolved mysteries surrounding interfaces between oxide semiconductors. Here we resolve a long-standing issue concerning the measurement of anomalously low dielectric constants in SrTiO 3 films with record high electron mobilities. We show that the junction between doped and undoped SrTiO 3 required to make dielectric constant measurements masks the dielectric properties of the undoped film. Through modeling, we extract the latter and show that it is much higher than previously measured.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identification of blood protein biomarkers associated with prostate cancer risk using genetic prediction models: analysis of over 140,000 subjects

Prostate cancer (PCa) brings huge public health burden in men. A growing number of conventional observational studies report associations of multiple circulating proteins with PCa risk. However, the existing findings may be subject to incoherent biases of conventional epidemiologic studies. To better characterize their associations, herein, we evaluated associations of genetically predicted concentrations of plasma proteins with PCa risk. In this study, we developed comprehensive genetic prediction models for protein levels in plasma. After testing 1308 proteins in 79 194 cases and 61 112 controls of European ancestry included in the consortia of BPC3, CAPS, CRUK, PEGASUS, and PRACTICAL, 24 proteins showed significant associations with PCa risk, including 16 previously reported proteins and eight novel proteins. Of them, 14 proteins showed negative associations and 10 showed positive associations with PCa risk. For 18 of the identified proteins, potential functional somatic changes of encoding genes were detected in PCa patients in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Genes encoding these proteins were significantly involved in cancer-related pathways. We further identified drugs targeting the identified proteins, which may serve as candidates for drug repurposing for treating PCa. In conclusion, this study identifies novel protein biomarker candidates for PCa risk, which may provide new perspectives on the etiology of PCa and improve its therapeutic strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Glacier ice archives nearly 15,000-year-old microbes and phages

Background Glacier ice archives information, including microbiology, that helps reveal paleoclimate histories and predict future climate change. Though glacier-ice microbes are studied using culture or amplicon approaches, more challenging metagenomic approaches, which provide access to functional, genome-resolved information and viruses, are under-utilized, partly due to low biomass and potential contamination. Results We expand existing clean sampling procedures using controlled artificial ice-core experiments and adapted previously established low-biomass metagenomic approaches to study glacier-ice viruses. Controlled sampling experiments drastically reduced mock contaminants including bacteria, viruses, and free DNA to background levels. Amplicon sequencing from eight depths of two Tibetan Plateau ice cores revealed common glacier-ice lineages including Janthinobacterium, Polaromonas, Herminiimonas, Flavobacterium, Sphingomonas, and Methylobacterium as the dominant genera, while microbial communities were significantly different between two ice cores, associating with different climate conditions during deposition. Separately, ~355- and ~14,400-year-old ice were subject to viral enrichment and low-input quantitative sequencing, yielding genomic sequences for 33 vOTUs. These were virtually all unique to this study, representing 28 novel genera and not a single species shared with 225 environmentally diverse viromes. Further, 42.4% of the vOTUs were identifiable temperate, which is significantly higher than that in gut, soil, and marine viromes, and indicates that temperate phages are possibly favored in glacier-ice environments before being frozen. In silico host predictions linked 18 vOTUs to co-occurring abundant bacteria (Methylobacterium, Sphingomonas, and Janthinobacterium), indicating that these phages infected ice-abundant bacterial groups before being archived. Functional genome annotation revealed four virus-encoded auxiliary metabolic genes, particularly two motility genes suggest viruses potentially facilitate nutrient acquisition for their hosts. Finally, given their possible importance to methane cycling in ice, we focused on Methylobacterium viruses by contextualizing our ice-observed viruses against 123 viromes and prophages extracted from 131 Methylobacterium genomes, revealing that the archived viruses might originate from soil or plants. Conclusions Together, these efforts further microbial and viral sampling procedures for glacier ice and provide a first window into viral communities and functions in ancient glacier environments. Such methods and datasets can potentially enable researchers to contextualize new discoveries and begin to incorporate glacier-ice microbes and their viruses relative to past and present climate change in geographically diverse regions globally.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sustainable Aviation Fuels from 30,000 feet – Scoping Report

A literature review, first principles analysis, and mapping of the airline-fuel infrastructure were performed to reassess the potential for various means of realizing a sustainable aviation sector. The literature review found a plethora of technical methods to make the airline industry net-zero CO 2 but limited work on the emergent barriers to sustainable aviation implementation such as land use, repurposing of fuel refining assets, and airline cost structures. First principles analyses of the energy, land, and costs of three broad net-zero strategies were performed to determine if sustainable aviation is feasible even in the most optimistic scenarios. Those methods were biomass-derived sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), fuel produced from CO 2 captured from the air and H 2 produced from water electrolysis (air-to-fuel: ATF), and offsetting fossil-derived Jet Fuel with carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere (direct air capture and storage: DACS). Offsetting CO 2 emissions from using fossil Jet Fuel with DACS was found to consume the least energy, require the smallest quantity of land, and be the cheapest option. Replacing Jet Fuel with SAF was found to be only slightly more expensive than DACS but require substantially more land. ATF was found to be the most expensive and energy intensive option, though it did spare land relative to SAF. We found that calls to utilize waste biomass are well-founded, but wastes alone cannot cover the needs of the global airline industry. This means additional land will need to be allocated for biomass cultivation if SAF becomes the primary pathway to sustainable aviation. While differences were found in the performance of different types of biomass, those differences were small relative to differences with ATF and DACS. An analysis of the pricing structure of the airline industry suggests that some of the cost advantage of DACS may be erased by consumer sentiment which could explain why, to-date, the airline industry is focused primarily on SAF and to a lesser extent ATF. Further work is required to estimate the transportation, capital cost, and financing cost implications of greenfield and brownfield sites for SAF, DACS, and ATF. In the final report, we will analyze the potential to retrofit corn ethanol facilities to operate the ethanol-to-jet fuel process in response to decreasing gasoline demand as the electrification of road transport progresses. We will also construct a prioritization of land use to determine whether each net-zero CO 2 aviation pathway can make claim to the land required by their technology.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fundamental Parameters of ∼30,000 M dwarfs in LAMOST DR1 Using Data-driven Spectral Modeling

M dwarfs are the most common type of star in the Galaxy, and because of their small size are favored targets for searches of Earth-sized transiting exoplanets. Current and upcoming all-sky spectroscopic surveys, such as the Large Sky Area Multi Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST), offer an opportunity to systematically determine physical properties of many more M dwarfs than has been previously possible. Here, we present new effective temperatures, radii, masses, and luminosities for 29,678 M dwarfs with spectral types M0–M6 in the first data release (DR1) of LAMOST. We derived these parameters from the supervised machine-learning code, The Cannon, trained with 1388 M dwarfs in the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite Cool Dwarf Catalog that were also present in LAMOST with high signal-to-noise ratio (>250) spectra. Our validation tests show that the output parameter uncertainties are strongly correlated with the signal-to-noise of the LAMOST spectra, and we achieve typical uncertainties of 110 K in T{sub eff} (∼3%), 0.065 R{sub ⊙} (∼14%) in radius, 0.054 M{sub ⊙} (∼12%) in mass, and 0.012 L{sub ⊙} (∼20%) in luminosity. The model presented here can be rapidly applied to future LAMOST data releases, significantly extending the samples of well-characterized M dwarfs across the sky using new and exclusively data-based modeling methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Cosmic Evolution of C IV Absorbers at 1.4 < z < 4.5: Insights from 100,000 Systems in DESI Quasars

We present the largest catalog to date of triply ionized carbon (C IV ) absorbers detected in quasar spectra from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. Using an automated matched-kernel convolution method with adaptive signal-to-noise thresholds, we identify 101,487 C IV systems in the redshift range 1.4 < z < 4.5 from 300,637 quasar spectra. Completeness is estimated via Monte Carlo simulations, and the catalog is 50% complete at EW C IV ≥ 0.4 Å. The differential equivalent width frequency distribution declines exponentially and shows weak redshift evolution. The absorber incidence per unit comoving path increases by a factor of 2–5 from z ≈ 4.5 to z ≈ 1.4, with stronger redshift evolution for strong systems. Using column densities derived from the apparent optical depth method, we constrain the cosmic mass density of C IV , Ω C IV , which increases by a factor of ∼3.8 from (0.82 ± 0.05) × 10 −8 at z ≈ 4.5 to (3.16 ± 0.2) × 10 −8 at z ≈ 1.4. From Ω C IV , we estimate a lower limit on intergalactic medium metallicity ${\mathrm{log}}({Z}_{{\rm{IGM}}}/{Z}_{\odot })\gtrsim -3.25$ at z ∼ 2.3, with a smooth decline at higher redshifts. These trends trace the cosmic star formation history and He II photoheating rate, suggesting a link between C IV enrichment, star formation, and UV background over ∼3 Gyr. The catalog also provides a critical resource for future studies connecting circumgalactic metals to galaxy evolution, especially near cosmic noon.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

SILVERRUSH. XIV. Ly α Luminosity Functions and Angular Correlation Functions from 20,000 Ly α Emitters at z ∼ 2.2–7.3 from up to 24 deg 2 HSC-SSP and CHORUS Surveys: Linking the Postreionization Epoch to the Heart of Reionization

Abstract We present luminosity functions (LFs) and angular correlation functions (ACFs) derived from 18,960 Ly α emitters (LAEs) at z = 2.2−7.3 over a wide survey area of ≲24 deg 2 that are identified in the narrowband data of the HSC-SSP and CHORUS surveys. Confirming the large sample with 241 spectroscopically identified LAEs, we determine Ly α LFs and ACFs in the brighter luminosity range down to 0.5 L ⋆ , and confirm that our measurements are consistent with previous studies but offer significantly reduced statistical uncertainties. The improved precision of our ACFs allows us to clearly detect one-halo terms at some redshifts, and provides large-scale bias measurements that indicate host halo masses of ∼10 11 M ⊙ over z ≃ 2−7. By comparing our Ly α LF (ACF) measurements with reionization models, we estimate the neutral hydrogen fractions in the intergalactic medium to be x H i < 0.05 (= 0.06 − 0.03 + 0.12 ) at z = 5.7 and x H i = 0.1 5 − 0.08 + 0.10 ( 0.21 − 0.14 + 0.19 ), 0.1 8 − 0.12 + 0.14 , and 0.7 5 − 0.13 + 0.09 at z = 6.6, 7.0, and 7.3, respectively. Our findings suggest that the neutral hydrogen fraction remains relatively low, x H i ≲ 0.2, at z = 5−7, but increases sharply at z > 7, reaching x H i ∼ 0.9 by z ≃ 8−9, as indicated by recent JWST studies. The combination of our results from LAE observations with recent JWST observations suggests that the major epoch of reionization occurred at z ∼ 7−8, likely driven by the emergence of massive sources emitting significant ionizing photons.

Umeda, Hiroya (ORCID:0009000801675129)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Peering down the barrel with DESI DR2: 10 000+ inflows at $z$ < 0.6 reveal how galaxies accrete cold gas

Direct observational constraints on how galaxies acquire their gas remain remarkably limited, hindering our understanding of the baryon cycle. We present a search for down-the-barrel NaI D absorption towards 15.6 million galaxies at $z < 0.6$ in DESI Data Release 2. We use Bayesian evidence ratios to assess whether the absorption requires additional components tracing interstellar gas distinct from the systemic component of the galaxy. We construct a catalogue of 50 088 (27 420) galaxies with moderate (strong) evidence for down-the-barrel absorption. The inferred absorption components are broadly distributed in velocity, with approximately 50% at $v_{\rm flow} < -50$ km/s, 30% within 50 km/s of the systemic velocity and the remaining 20% at $v_{\rm flow} > 50$ km/s. We find strong evidence for a large population of low-velocity, infalling absorbers with velocities $\sim$20 km/s in edge-on galaxies, consistent with radial inflows predicted in simulations. The stronger correlation in early-type galaxies between inflow velocity and stellar velocity dispersion, compared to that with stellar mass, suggests that a portion of these inflows may be associated with accreting satellites. These results reveal the multiple pathways in which galaxies accrete gas at redshift $z < 0.6$ for the first time in a statistically significant sample.

Weng, S. [Marseille, Lab. Astrophys.]↗
DOE OSTI2020

SRS Strategy for Tank 3 Salt Dissolution - Performance and Lessons Learned - 20441

The Savannah River Site (SRS) Tank Farms have 51 underground waste tanks used to store and process liquid nuclear waste materials. There are 4 different tank types, ranging in capacity from 2,840,000 to 4,920,000 L (750,000 to 1,300,000 Gal). Twenty-four of the tanks are older style and do not meet full secondary containment standards. The older style tanks are the initial focus of waste removal efforts for tank closure at SRS. Eight of these twenty-four tanks have completed waste removal and are filled with grout. Prior to salt dissolution, Tank 3 was a dry salt tank that contained 5.06 m (199.3 in) of salt and sludge waste. Additional salt waste was present on cooling coils above the salt layer up to approximately 5.59 m (220 in). Three mixing eductors were installed in Tank 3 to aid in dissolving salt waste in three tank riser access ports. A transfer pump was installed, and the transfer pump suction was located 25.4 cm (10 in) from the tank bottom. Well water was added to the tank through a downcomer until the dry bulk salt was covered with liquid. During the initial fill of Tank 3, approximately 242,000 L (64,000 Gal) of rain water were added from periodic F-Tank Farm (FTF) Catch Tank additions and approximately 17,000 L (4,500 Gal) of well water were added. Following liquid additions to cover the dry bulk salt, well water was added through the three mixing eductors in batches during each stage. Additionally, during the salt dissolution campaigns, the FTF Catch Tank was utilized to add rain water through a downcomer in the center tank riser access port as needed for volume relief in the FTF Catch Tank. Following liquid additions, the water was recirculated (internal to the tank) using the transfer pump, and a sample was pulled to confirm the target specific gravity (SpG) of the dissolved salt solution was achieved. The dissolved salt solution was then transferred to the receipt tank (Tank 7), and the mixing eductors were lowered as close to the new bulk salt layer as possible, to support subsequent dissolution campaigns. While the mixing jets were able to dissolve salt successfully in Tank 3, they did not do so in a completely uniform manner. Throughout dissolution, mounds were discovered under Riser 1, Riser 2, and the Center Riser. The mixing jets dissolved the salt around the edges of the tank well but were not as effective toward the center of the tank. FTF Catch Tank additions through the center tank riser access port downcomer were required to impact the mound under the center tank riser. FTF Catch Tank additions were sporadic as they were dependent on rainfall in the area. Additionally, all mixing jets were rarely able to be lowered to the same elevation, indicating some mounding in the bulk salt layer. Indexing of the mixing jets was also utilized to impact the salt mounds. Overall, Tank 3 salt dissolution was successful as approximately 1,476,000 L (390,000 Gal) of dissolved salt solution was transferred to Tank 7 over six stages. Slightly less than 852,000 L (225,000 Gal) of water were added to Tank 3. The original material balance prediction estimated that the bulk salt level in Tank 3 would be 3.88 m (152.8 in) after six salt dissolution stages. After six stages the actual bulk salt level was 3.38 m (133 in). This paper will discuss the salt removal strategy, each salt dissolution stage, and lessons learned for future salt dissolution. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land management effects on wet aggregate stability and carbon content

Land management affects soil structure and many other soil properties and processes. Our objectives were to evaluate soil organic C (SOC), aggregate size distribution, aggregate-associated C, and soil structure as affected by long-term land management and slope. A chronosequence of 38 on-farm sites with low to high (5–18%) slopes was selected to evaluate 5–40 yr of management. The sites were classified as business as usual (BAU) cropland (BAU-Crop), BAU pasture (BAU-Past), newly established conservation reserve program (CRP) areas (CRP-New), and established CRP (CRP-Old). Soil samples were collected from the 0-to-5- and 5-to-15-cm depth increments and processed for soil property measurements including fractionation by wet sieving into five aggregate size classes (>2,000, 1,000–2,000, 500–1,000, 250–500, and 53–250 μm). Within the surface 5 cm, mean weight diameter (MWD) and geometric mean diameter (GMD) were used to characterize soil structural stability. The BAU-Past and CRP-Old sites had 79% more macroaggregates (>2,000, 1,000–2,000, and 500–1,000 μm), 123% higher MWD, 38% higher GMD, and 47% higher SOC than BAU-Crop or CRP-New sites. The 5-to-15-cm depth increment showed a similar but lower magnitude response. Aggregate-associated C was quantified using a constant soil mass that reflected aggregate size distribution to prevent overestimating C content. Lower-slope locations had more SOC, more macroaggregates, more C associated with macroaggregates, and higher GMD and MWD compared with high-slope locations across all management classifications and soil depths. The results support our hypothesis that the high-slop soils may benefits from specific management decisions than the lower-sloping soils as a function of landscape property. We recommend reestablishing grassland on sloping land that is susceptible to excessive soil erosion, although those practices will likely take a long time to restore soil structural stability and SOC content to precultivation levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A late glacial paleoenvironmental and climate record from the Sierra de Juarez, Baja California

Ciénegas are desert wetlands that are strongly correlated with the stability of the hydrologic cycle in arid landscapes. However, these environments are particularly vulnerable to climate change, drought, water diversion, and fire suppression which all have contributed to the degradation of ciénegas along the U.S.-Mexican borderlands. Therefore, identifying the timing of precipitation patterns in this region is of particular interest because of its relationship to many ecological responses of the landscape such as groundwater recharge and fire. Here, we present the first-ever fire paleoenvironmental record from Ciénega Chimeneas, a ciénega complex in the Sierra de Juárez of Baja California. We explore how changes in the amount and seasonality of moisture affected ciénega complexes and fire activity from across the southwestern North American region over the past 45,000 years. Further, our record suggests that during the late glacial period, 41,000–21,000 cal yr BP, the increase of Larrea and Quercus indicate an increase in summer precipitation. Subsequently, when summer precipitation increased, pollen preservation and pollen accumulation rates (PAR) also increased. Increased vegetation allowed for increased fire activity during the late glacial period. Regionally, most of the comparison sites also indicated wet conditions during the full glacial period. However, around 21,000 cal yr BP, effective moisture decreased resulting in a dramatic change in the vegetation assemblage. Specifically, the summer wet taxa disappeared, while pollen preservation and PAR decreased, suggesting a dry period until ~14,000 cal yr BP. Little fire activity is recorded after 21,000 cal yr BP, likely due to the absence of fuels. At ~14,000 cal yr BP, Larrea and Quercus reappear suggesting increased summer precipitation. However, the appearance of Cyperaceae and increases in grasses suggest increased winter precipitation. We suggest that the combination of summer wet and winterwet taxa ~14,000 cal yr BP represents an increase in ENSO conditions, while the summer moisture controls remained relatively constant.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Hazard Assessment for Tornadoes, Straight-Line Wind, and Extreme Precipitation at the Savannah River Site

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities – tornadoes, straight-line winds, and heavy precipitation – are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate the occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 2013 by Werth et al. (W2013) are given. Using tornado statistics for i) the combined states of Georgia and South Carolina, and ii) a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS, we calculated the probability per year of any location at SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 7.04E-4 (1 chance in 1420) per year and tornadic wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years (corresponding to wind design category 3 (WDC-3), and 125,000 years (meeting WDC-4) (USDOE, 2016) were estimated to be 132 mph and 147 mph, respectively. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years and 173 mph every 125,000 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS and the SRS evaluation used the same basic model (Ramsdell and Rishel, 2007), the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight-line wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a GEV1 distribution and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight-line winds of 117 mph every 2500 years (the required WDC-3 standard) and 125 mph every 6250 years (WDC-4) at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the ANS-2.3-2011 report, which has wind speeds of 125mph and 133 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation, we compared the fits of two different theoretical extreme-value distributions and applied the one that fit the data best for each of several accumulation periods. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 10,000 years (corresponding to precipitation design category 3 (PDC-3) and 25,000 years (PDC-4) were estimated as 9.1 inches and 10.1 inches, respectively. For the 24-hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 12.02 inches and 13.17 inches, respectively, higher than comparable values provided in the W2013 report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variability Analysis of FMVSS-121 Air Brake Systems: 60-mi/hr Service Brake System Performance Data for Truck Tractors

In support of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA’s) ongoing interest in connected and automated commercial vehicles, this report summarizes analyses conducted to quantify variability in stopping distance tests conducted on commercial truck tractors. The data used were retrieved from tests performed under the controlled conditions specified for FMVSS-121 air brake system compliance testing. The report explores factors affecting the variability of the service brake stopping distance as defined by 49 CFR 571.121, S5.3.1 Stopping Distance—trucks and buses stopping distance. Variables examined in this analysis include brake type, weight, wheelbase, and tractor antilock braking system (ABS). This analysis uses existing test data collected between 2010 and 2019. Several of the examined parameters affected both tractor stopping distance and stopping distance variability. First, the average stopping distance for disc/disc brakes was shorter than either drum/drum or disc/drum brakes, but brake type did not have a statistically significant effect on stopping distance variability. Second, tractors with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 45,000-50,000 lb had shorter stopping distances than any other examined weight category. Weight was found to have a significant effect on stopping distance variability; the 50,000-55,000-lb GVWR range had more variability than both the next lower (45,000-50,000 lb) and next higher (55,000-60,000 lb) range.

Lascurain, Mary Beth↗